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BHUTAN
Sustainable Land Management Project
World Bank Mission of December 5 – 15, 2007
Aide Memoire
Background:
1. An IDA Mission comprising Malcolm Jansen (Task Team Leader), Erick
Fernandes (Land Management Advisor) and Kumaraswamy Sankaravadivelu
(Procurement Specialist) visited Bhutan from December 5-16, 2007 to undertake the
supervision of the Sustainable Land Management Project. Manvinder Mamak (Senior
Financial Management Specialist) undertook a desk review of financial management
issues and will follow-up with a more detailed review during her next visit to Bhutan in
January 2008. The Mission met with staff of the Project Management Team (PMT) of
the Ministry of Agriculture, consultants and members of the Multi-Sectoral Advisory
Committee (MTAC), donors and other key government representatives of the
Departments of Forestry, Livestock, Agriculture and Planning. The mission also visited
two of the pilot geog sites in Nangkhor and Radhi and met with the SLM Planning Teams,
Dzongkhag and Geog RNR staff, local people’s representatives and local communities.
A wrap-up meeting was held on December 13, 2007 in Thimpu with Dasho Sherub
Gyaltshen, Secretary of the Ministry of Agriculture. This aide memoire summarizes the
findings and recommendations of the Mission.
Project Objectives and Description
2. The project is financed by a GEF grant of US$ 7.66m. Parallel financing is
provided by RGoB (US$ 1.51m), Beneficiaries (US$ 0.95m) and Danida (US$ 5.77m),
the latter through its Environment and Urban Policy Support Program (EUSPS). The aim
of the project is to strengthen institutional and community capacity to anticipate and
manage land degradation in Bhutan. This is to be achieved through the following four
components:
Pilot projects to demonstrate effective application of land degradation prevention
approaches in three geogs;
Mainstreaming and replication of practices for protection against land
degradation;
Policy support and guidance for mainstreaming land degradation prevention
practices; and
National level support for coordination of implementation of land degradation
prevention practices.
Summary of Progress in Project Implementation:
3. The project has been effective for the past 21 months. Project implementation is
progressing satisfactorily. Participatory natural resource mapping has been completed in
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47 of the 49 chiogs in the three pilot geogs. Additionally soil maps have been prepared
for these chiogs supported by soil sampling. Natural resource and soil maps are being
digitized and will be available for further documentation and analysis. Sustainable Land
Management (SLM) Annual Work Plans (AWP) have been finalized for FY 07/08 and
incorporated in geog AWPs, and are being implemented. Action Planning for FY 08/09
has been completed in all of the chiogs. Six additional geogs have been identified for
scaling of SLM activities. The Multi-Sectoral Technical Advisory Committee (MTAC)
meets quarterly to provide technical guidance for project execution. The project is
supporting the newly formed National Land Commission in capacity building, awareness
creation and development of rules and guidelines for facilitating the implementation of
the newly approved Land Act. A SLM thematic call for proposals has been prepared and
is being launched shortly to broaden the thematic and geographical reach of SLM
activities and is aimed at involvement of national agencies, regional research centers,
Dzongkhags and geogs. Proposals are expected to contribute to SLM mainstreaming
and/or add to the national knowledge base on SLM. Participatory monitoring and
evaluation frameworks are being implemented.
4. While there has been a good effort at establishing institutional arrangements and
planning systems for SLM implementation, it is now important that substantial efforts be
directed at expanding activities in the field so as to create a visual demonstrative impact
for SLM and ensure that local farmers are able to capture the full range of sustainable
natural resource benefits from these investments. In addition, it is useful to establish
some norms for community contributions for SLM activities and ensure that communities
are able to identify and establish linkages between project investments and natural
resource and productivity gains and improved community incomes, so as to establish
clear justification for SLM. It is also important that the post of Project Manager be filled
as a priority so as to facilitate project activities. Delays in fund flows to the geogs need
to be addressed as an urgent priority as this is constraining the implementation of
activities in the pilot geogs and can seriously affected future project performance and
outcomes because of its implication for implementation of time-bound SLM activities.
Mission Recommendations and Agreements:
5. The mission reached agreement with RGoB on the following specific actions in
order to ensure smooth implementation of the project.
6. Community SLM Activities: Resource mapping of pilot geogs have been
completed and provide the basis for planning of sustainable investments on the ground in
consultation with local farmers. Annual planning has been progressing very well with the
support of RNR staff and local communities. Investments have been made on the ground,
including support for conversion of tseri lands to permanent crops, construction of bench
terraces and hedgerows, organic vegetable cultivation, development of orchards,
community forestry and other sustainable land management activities. Activities are
scattered and of limited scale so far, and hence as yet do not provide a large and visual
impact of SLM within the pilot geogs. In addition, SLM investments are still largely
implemented as individual activities and hence lose a significant opportunity for
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demonstrating and establishing potential linkages with broader natural resource
management and livelihood development impacts. SLM demonstration also needs to be
designed keeping in mind the existing resource constraints that operate at the village level,
so that these can be easily replicated within and outside the pilot geogs.
Agreements:
On-the-ground SLM investments will be intensified to create a greater visible
impact in the pilot geogs
PMT will ensure that beneficiaries have a clear understanding of linkages
between individual investments and their ensuing collective natural resource,
productivity and livelihood benefits and that these linkages will be established
through reciprocal commitments that will be defined in memoranda of
agreements with the individual beneficiaries. In addition, there is a need to
incorporate investments within a package of benefits that includes livelihood
improvement, product development, processing, marketing, etc.
SLM demonstration activities would be designed within the existing budgetary
constraints that prevail at the chiog level, so that there is greater opportunity
for replication within and outside the chiog
Community and government contributions for SLM activities will be quantified
and recorded so as to capture the full financial costs and benefits of these
activities.
7. Monitoring and Evaluation: Participatory monitoring and evaluation frameworks
are being implemented. Baseline information has been refined and information on
impacts is being monitored. It is also important to capture productivity gains on
agricultural, forest and range lands as well as improvements in farmer incomes as a
consequence of SLM investments. The mission emphasized the importance of systematic
monitoring and evaluation of impacts and outcomes of the project.
Agreements:
The baseline and progress of identified monitoring indicators will continue to
be monitored on a systematic basis so as measure impacts of the project.
Additional proxy indicators such as extent of bench terracing, hedgerows, and
others could also provide a reasonable indication of the impact of the project.
MoA has provided a composite table of baseline and current status of
indicators for the project monitoring framework, which needs to be further
strengthened by inclusion of the additional proxy indicators as well as socio-
economic indicators by February 29, 2008
MoA will also ensure that productivity and income gains from SLM activities
will be captured on a systematic basis and included within the monitoring
framework
Community and government contributions for SLM activities will be
quantified and recorded so as to capture the full financial costs and benefits
of these activities
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8. Institutional Arrangements: Institutional arrangements are in place in the pilot
geogs and contributing to the effective implementation of project activities in the pilot
geogs. SLM Geog Field Coordinators and Planning Officers (the latter recruited from
within the geogs) are working very closely and effectively with the geog RNR staff in
planning and implementation of SLM activities. As scaling up of project activities to six
new geogs is expected to be initiated shortly, it would be necessary to evaluate the
additional institutional needs and arrangements. At the national level, the Project
Director has been promoted to Director of the Department of Agriculture and the Project
Manager has left the department. Acting arrangements for the post of Project Director
has been made, but the post of Project Manager remains unfilled. The post of Finance
Officer has been filled with a suitably qualified officer.
Agreements:
MoA will fill the post of Project Manager and formalize arrangements in
relation to the post of Project Director by January 31, 2008
MoA will review and make appropriate institutional arrangements for scaling
up of SLM activities in the six new geogs
9. Thematic Studies: The project supports specific thematic studies,
within and outside the pilot geogs to respond to specific land management related issues,
such as grazing in alpine meadows, farm level economics, indigenous knowledge, social
and community forestry and other topics that have been identified by MoA. Proposals
for thematic studies are expected to be called for within the next few weeks from RGoB
agencies that are directly responsible for management of natural resources. The project is
supporting the newly created National Land Commission to develop rules and regulations
for implementation of the recently enacted Land Act and to support capacity building and
creation of awareness for this purpose. Other potential thematic studies under discussion
are: (i) preparation of rules and regulations and capacity building for implementation of
provisions relating to rangeland management under the newly enacted Land Act: (ii)
implementation of sustainable participatory grazing regimes in the pilot geogs; (iii)
improving understanding of grazing issues and management options for alpine pastures;
(iv) preparation of grazing policy for Bhutan; (v) biodiversity assessments in pilot geog
sites; (vi) rural and urban impact on effective and sustainable natural resource
management; and (vii) pilot geog farm economics. These studies are expected to generate
information for SLM policy guidance.
Agreements:
MoA will call for expressions of interest and proposals for thematic studies by
January 31, 2008, including proposals for rangeland management and
biodiversity that have been discussed with the relevant agencies,
MoA will evaluate and select suitable proposals for funding under the
thematic component and submit these to the Bank for review before these are
funded
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In terms of the consultancy for biodiversity and rangeland management, MoA
in consultation with the relevant agencies (National Biodiversity Center and
Department of Lands) will reach agreement on the terms of reference for
these consultancies and ensure that these are well integrated with the relevant
thematic studies
In terms of the urban/peri-urban study, the mission approves the terms of
reference and request MoA to proceed with this contract.
MoA will look at opportunity for preparation of a broader national
framework for SLM in the country, and develop proposal for its
operationalization. The intention is to provide the framework for expansion
of SLM approaches to all geogs and enable farmers to practice SLM
approaches.
10. Bhutan Dynamic Information Framework (DIF): The mission discussed with
MoA and other relevant agencies the possibility of establishing a national DIF that would
provide a platform for decision making on natural resource issues and trade-offs in
Bhutan. Using information available on key natural resources, such as land use, soil
condition, hydrology, forests, biodiversity, demography and other resources, the
framework, once established will be an useful tool for decision making for all sectors. It
could be designed in a manner to provide quantifiable information in terms of water,
biodiversity, carbon sequestation and other parameters under different scenarios that
would enable decision making on the use of land and land resources. Initially the DIF
will be established using global information, and subsequently expanded to include
locally available information, as and when, these become available. The scope and
objectives of Druk DIF and next steps are discussed in extensive detail in Attachment 1.
Agreements:
Coordinate and assemble available data from the products of SLMP and
relevant projects by other agencies. An individual would be assigned to collate
this data, identify information gaps and needs.
On the basis of Bhutan’s needs, MoA will develop terms of reference for
establishing the Dynamic Information Framework and capacity building for its
use by February 15, 2008
An inter-disciplinary local team would be identified to oversee and guide this
assignment.
MoA will initiate action to procure technical support for establishment of DIF
by March 1, 2008, so that the establishment of DIF can be completed by July 31,
2009.
11. Procurement: The mission reviewed the Procurement Plan for the project
and noted some inconsistency in the plan and suggested measures to revise the Plan,
including record of actual actions for procurement of goods and revision of procurement
dates. The mission conducted a post review of five contracts carried out during FY 06/07
and FY 07/08. The Mission noted the following: (i) the filing system of the documents
relating to procurements is not satisfactory and needs substantial improvements. For each
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contract, a separate flap is to be made and all the documents starting from advertisement
until payments are made to the suppliers is to be filed in that order. This will be followed
up during the next mission to ensure compliance; (ii) the office copy of the
tender/quotations/bid documents was not made available for review. This is expected to
improve once the filing system is established; (iii) it was noted that some equipment was
allocated for activities that were not directly related to the project; and (iv) efforts need to
be made to improve the monitoring of contracts. The Bank will provide a format for
monitoring contracts. Overall, procurement management under this project is classified as
satisfactory, although improvements are necessary as mentioned in this aide memoire.
Agreements:
MoA will submit revised procurement plan based on recommendations of the
mission by January 31, 2008.
MoA will improve the filing system so that there is a systematic record of the
critical steps in the procurement process
MoA will ensure that future allocation of project equipment will be
exclusively for project use
MoA will maintain a Contract Management System to monitor all contracts
12. Financial Management and Disbursement Against the original grant allocation of
US$ 7.66 million, the disbursements as on 07 December 2007 stand at US$ 1.056 million,
reflecting 13.78% disbursed. This includes the Special Account advance of US$ 0.500
million. The disbursements reflect expenditures up to June 2007. RGoB has confirmed
that withdrawal claims for the subsequent period have been forwarded to the World Bank
Office in Chennai – these however, do not yet appear in the payment pipeline. Financial
Management Reports (FMRs) have been submitted to the Bank up to 30 June 2007. A
quick comparison of the FMRs as on 30 June 2007 with the audited financial statements
for the same period show several significant differences in the figures, indicating that the
FMRs may not be based on the BAS reports and will need to be reviewed and revised. A
few examples of variations are listed as follows:
As per FMRs As per audited
financial statements
Fund releases for Pilot Geogs 7,185,000 7,034,000
Uses of funds – NSSC 20,614,078 20,615,584
Uses of funds – Pilot Geogs 3,374,077 3,557,058
13. FMRs for the quarter July – September 2007 have not yet been received. In the
absence of updated financial reports the mission has been unable to ascertain the present
financial position especially of the adequacy of the fund transfers to the pilot Geogs. The
audit report for the year 2006-07 has been submitted to the Bank. The auditors have
identified two specific instances of excess stipend payments. In their response, the project
authorities have agreed to adjust the excess payments from future stipend payments.
RGoB will be required to confirm that the adjustments have been made. A letter
responding to the audit report is being sent separately to RGoB. A major concern has
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been delays in release of funds to the geogs. The exact reasons for these delays are
believed to be the delays in submission of expenditure statements from the geog and
dzongkhag levels and it is necessary that this issue be resolved as a priority so as to
ensure that project activities are not affected.
14. Financial management arrangements continue to be rated as `Moderately
Unsatisfactory’, largely on account of the inability of the project to produce adequate and
reliable FMRs on a timely basis and the potential risk and that delays in accounting and
reporting from the dzongkhag/geogs will lead to major disconnects between physical and
financial progress.
.
Agreements:
MoA will submit FMRs for the quarter ending June 30, 2007 and September 30,
2007 by January 31, 2008
MoA will submit to the Bank a response to the World Bank letter on audit
report for the FY06/07 by January 31, 2008
MoA will convene a meeting between DADM, Dzongkhag Finance Officers and
Geog staff to review fund flow delays and bottlenecks and implement specific
arrangements for resolving such delays by February 15, 2008
15. Vehicles: On account of a previous RGoB decision, vehicles are currently
being hired by the MoA for SLMP related activities. However, the Ministry of Finance is
now reviewing requests for purchase of vehicles on a case-by-case basis, and MoA
expects that permission would be granted to purchase new vehicles for project use. The
Mission supports the request for purchase of three new vehicles for project use (as
replacement for three older and less reliable vehicles that MoA intends to dispose), as this
would be more cost-effective than hiring vehicles. No additional requirements for drivers
are necessary.
Agreement:
MoA would submit a justification to the Bank for purchase of vehicles for
project related use for Bank consideration, once permission is granted by MoF.
16. Mid-Term Review: The project includes two mid-term reviews the first will
take place around June 2008. The mid-term review will provide an opportunity for the
Government to review progress so far, and agree on specific changes within the project
design in order to achieve the objectives and outcomes of the project.
Agreements:
MoA will submit its mid-term report by April 30, 2008. The mid-term report
will provide a review of progress in project activities and identify specific
changes in project design, components and activities in order to achieve the
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desired project outcomes. The mid-term report will also provide a monitoring
report that outlines impacts and progress in terms of agreed monitoring
agreements.
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Attachment 1
Bhutan Dynamic Information Framework (DrukDIF):
Integrated Spatial Mapping and Dynamic Modeling of Land Cover,
Land Use, Biodiversity, and Hydrology
Introduction
Bhutan and the SLMP have data on land cover/land use of varying quality based on satellite
images. In addition, the hydrological and meteorological data of country and SLMP project sites
are not easily accessible and adequately georeferenced. Similarly, Bhutan has some data on
biodiversity (flora and fauna) in the SLMP area. The current datasets cannot, however, be used
for any credible time series analysis and scenario generation. Given the importance of well
documented, georeferenced, and continuous data sets in monitoring ecosystem and hydrological
changes over time, a key objective of SLMP is to establish baselines for the land cover, landuse,
and biodiversity components relevant to SLMP goals and objectives. Including a hydrological
data baseline will greatly facilitate the integrated and predictive management of the SLMP natural
resource components. Support is therefore needed to assist the SLMP stakeholders to develop the
baselines, and GIS-based monitoring system coupled to simulation models for the future use. The
aim is to have a robust and dynamic information framework (DrukDIF) with time series data sets,
which would enable scientists to analyze the resource base and develop scenarios and appropriate
interventions, with climatic and ecosystem changes in mind.
Justification: System for Development of Cross-Sector Integrated Baseline
Sustainable natural resource management inevitably requires an effective means of coordinating
and implementing information derived from multiple socio-economic and biophysical sources.
However, even the best developed systems will fail in the absence of appropriate baseline data. In
addition, the dynamic nature of the underlying resource base requires a cost-effective means of
developing a reference baseline where response to environmental change can be readily measured,
monitored and analyzed. The historical progress on data acquisition and analysis suggest the
status quo in baseline information is unlikely to satisfactorily contribute to project and national
development outcomes without the introduction of a well-coordinated and standardized, low-cost,
high-return system of integrated baseline development and the application of the baselines for
improved management and monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of operations.
To date such integrated approaches have been unavailable or else poorly developed or poorly
implemented. Incorporation of landscape/watershed/hydrology process models provides the basis
for decision support systems. Very recent developments in integrated, gradient-based, rapid
survey methodology and models using state-of-the-art, science-based procedures were applied in
the complex, lower Zambezi valley in Mozambique. This led to the construction of a computer
based, Zambezi Dynamic Information Framework (ZDIF)1. This ‘live’ framework is now readily
1
The Zambezi Dynamic Information Framework (ZDIF) contains the information developed in support of
the Baseline Data on Landuse, Biodiversity, and Hydrology, in support of the GEF - Zambezi Valley
Market Led Smallholder Development Project. The database and models are extensive, and represent
information not previously available in Mozambique. The ZambeziDIF is constructed as a multi-layered
representation of (georegistered) characteristics and processes in a drainage basin that allows the
convergence of data from multiple sources, into a coherent framework that can be used for multiple
analytical purposes.
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accessible by management and planning agencies and provides a baseline dataset that can be
readily upgraded by in-country personnel via low-cost monitoring of the developing resource
baseline. The outcome confirms that a cost-effective, integrated mechanism for establishing
management-relevant reference baselines in complex environments is now possible. Relatively
low-cost technology involving user-friendly spatial analysis via industry-standard GIS platforms
is, generally speaking, readily transferable, thereby enhancing capacity-building and enabling in-
country capacity to monitor change in baseline conditions.
Because the methodology is mostly standardized, the data acquired can be readily compared with
data collected using similar methods in other regions.
Steps Required to Establish an Integrated Baseline and Dynamic Information Framework
(DrukDIF) for Bhutan
A brief review of existing information suggest two phases of input are likely to be
required – a Phase 1 Project Preparation mission, and a Phase 2 for Project
Implementation.
Phase I – Project Preparation (WB Mission Dec 5-16, 2007)
Consult with the MoA and other stakeholders to identify key SLM and NRM foci
including short and long-term strategies.
Review existing information and data relevant to the SLMP watershed catchments and
basin area; identify knowledge gaps.
With MoA specify and/or revise management objectives relevant to a design for an
Integrated Management (ILBM) structure.
Assess available institutional and other resources with potential to contribute to a set of
spatially-controlled resource baselines and DIF.
Scope out basis for implementation of dynamic hydrological models that incorporate and
integrate the developed baselines and components
Identify training needs and capacity-building requirements and the necessary steps to
enhance local capacity.
Develop guidelines, ToRs, and budgets for undertaking the tasks during the third year of
SLMP implementation.
Phase II – Key Steps for Operationalizing DrukDIF Implementation
Establish state of the art reference baselines for the SLMP including a viable mechanism
for database construction and management
Use existing institutional and new data and information (especially remotely-sensed data)
to identify and locate representative land use intensity and natural resource gradients within
the SLMP operational area.
Train teams from representative areas of the SLMP field survey design and basic aspects of
hydrological and spatial modeling (capacity building)
Commence field surveys of key environmental gradients within the SLMP area.
Begun construction of dynamic landscape/hydrology models including existing
hydropower operating rules.
Begin construction of a Bhutan Dynamic Information Framework (DrukDIF) to include
relevant land use, biodiversity, hydrological and remotely-sensed data.
Explore dynamic ‘land use-biodiversity-hydrology’ linkages to identify causal
relationships where these exist.
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Use spatial (GIS) and other modeling approaches to explore impact of different scenarios
of land use and water management and climate change on biodiversity and income levels.
From these outcomes, construct a database management system and live GIS platform for
monitoring representative sites along key terrestrial biophysical gradients within the SLMP.
Data acquired from sequential monitoring of sites will be a pre-requisite for the time series
analysis required for dynamic modeling of flow networks, basin hydrology, biodiversity
and land use.
Integrate the above with dynamic bioeconomic and biophysical decision support systems
(DSS)
The Surface and Sub-Surface Movement of Water, as the Core Organizing Principle
for DrukDIF
The theoretical structure for the DrukDIF is to track the overall pathways and processes of water,
as water moves from the atmosphere to and through the landscape and down river channels to the
lake, on a geospatially-explicit, multi-temporal basis (as described, below). Everyone understands
and can relate to water. The knowledge necessary to track water includes an understanding of,
and a mobilization of information for, all aspects of the landscape, including landuse and
landcover, topography, soils, and fisheries.
The robust framework for tracking water to be enacted here for the DrukDIF is the emergence
of a new class of hydrology models. These can be regarded not only as hydrology models, but as
overall landscape models, because of the processes (and data layers) they represent. A key aspect
to these models is that they are geospatially-explicit, fully-distributed, recognize the spatial
heterogeneity of the watershed, and are process-based. Because these models can “meld”
information from multiple sources, they can be functional in specific regions where local data are
relatively sparse. Examples2 of such models that have been applied to resource issues in different
parts of the world include the Distributed Hydrology-Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM,
Wigmosta et al. 1994) for local-scale applications and VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity, Liang
et al. 1994; Nijssen et al. 1997; and Nijssen et al. 2001, among many others) for regional-scale
applications. Tanapakwin et al (2007) used DHSVM to evaluate the influence of elevation bands
of agricultural fields (highlands versus lowlands) and irrigation diversion for the 4000 km2 Mae
Chaem basin of northwest Thailand. VIC is the core model for the ongoing World Bank/GEF
project on the 3H basin of China, Mainstreaming Adaptation To Climate Change Into Water
Resources Management And Rural Development Project and for the GEF - Zambezi Valley
Market Led Smallholder Development Project: Baseline Data on Landuse, Biodiversity, and
Hydrology.
Costa-Cabral et al. (in press, in prep) have applied VIC for a detailed assessment of the basic
hydrological cycle of the Mekong, then evaluated the impacts of landuse change, irrigation, dams,
and climate change on the cycle.
2
Nijssen, et al (1997). Water. Resour. Res. 33, 711-724; Nijssen, et al (2001). J. Climate. 14, 3307-3323;
Liang et al (1994). J. Geophys. Res. 99, 14415-14428; Thanapakpawin,, et al. (2007). J. of Hydrology.
334: 215-230; Wigmosta, et al 1994. Water Resources Research 30 (6), 1665-1679.
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3. 2. Biodiversity in the SLMP area
The role of biodiversity as a critical element in ecosystem dynamics is well established as is
its role in contributing to resource productivity. Biodiversity is an expected component of GEF
projects. Biodiversity baseline data are but one element of the resource management matrix that
are too often considered stand-alone data. The reasons for this lie in the nature of the data that are
often highly qualitative or else are restricted to species lists. Whereas a species inventory remains
the primary focus of most biodiversity studies, additional procedures are now in place that can
help establish direct quantitative links between biodiversity baseline data and other biophysical
and socioeconomic elements of the resource baseline. These elements can feed directly into the
planning process and provide a science-based approach to adaptive management. Traditional
methods for designing and implementing biodiversity baseline studies can be extremely costly
and time-demanding. Recently developed standardized, rapid appraisal protocols involving
gradient-based (GRADSECT) geo-referenced data are now becoming more widely used. For
terrestrial biodiversity these procedures can be rapidly implemented within the SLMP via well-
tested training protocols.
4. DRUKDIF: Structure and Requirements
To meet these requirements, a Bhutan Dynamic Information Framework (DrukDIF) is proposed,
with the objective of providing a consistent theoretical basis, and the overall capability of
integrating across sectors. “Dynamic” refers to the fact that the landscape is a evolving – that we
must look at not only the present and especially the future. Information is not static.
“Information” means that more than just data needs to be considered – what are the products that
must be developed from data? “Framework” means that an overall set of information must be
logically arranged and communicated, within a flexible environment. The ability to interact with
and communicate the results of a DIF is critical.
Essentially, a DIF is a numeric and quantitative “Commons,” which builds on the legacy of
knowledge from experience, with the goal of “harmonizing” watershed function for multiple
users. The goal is to provide an instrument for a (quantitative) analysis of complex interdependent
problems. The process of creating the model provides an integration of data from multiple
sources (of interest to many). The framework provides a means for interpolation for sparse data,
provides the basis for cross-scale/upscaling analyses, and to provides the foundation for
“scenarios.”
The specific components of the DrukDIF include:
Base data layers,
Directed data layers, focused on synthetic objectives
Geospatially-explicit, process-based, cross-sector simulation models (requiring data
from the directed data layers).
Facilitated input/output (including visualizations)
Decision support system capabilities
Cooperation between colleagues, from different sectors and agencies
In the following sections, the practical structure and application of DrukDIF is developed.
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4.1. The Modules of DRUKDIF
Through preliminary consultation with Bhutan’s MoA and associated agencies and existing
SLMP stakeholders and documents, the framework elements for the DrukDIF are elaborated
below (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Bhutan Dynamic Information Framework: Observations/Measurements, Modeling
The construct is that each module (1-10 above) of the framework represents internally consistent
data and information, and with exchanges between each module occurring sequentially. The
information is derived from direct measurements and observations, and from modeling
interpreting that information. The Drainage Basin (Module 1) establishes basic attributes of the
landscape, including topography, soils, landuse and landcover, and expresses terrestrial
biodiversity. Climate Forcing (Module 2) “drives” the landscape and with precipitation,
temperature, and winds. Water Movement (hydrology, Module 3) then proceeds as the product of
the climate acting across the landscape. The DrukDIF Water balance (Module 4) is the product of
water inputs (from Module 3), outflows, and bathymetry (where appropriate). Landscape
Production (Module 5) represents primary production by landcover (including natural vegetation
and agriculture), and secondary production (including livestock), responding to the structure of
the drainage basin, and climate forcing (including changes in climate). Chemical loading (Module
6) is the input of chemicals (nutrients, toxics), as the product of hydrology and drainage basin
properties. River water quality and net ecosystem production (NEP, Module 7) is then driven by
the loading and water balance. The fishery (Module 8) responds to net ecosystem productivity
(NEP) and any fish extraction (may not be important for DrukDIF). Economics (Module 9)
represents the economic consequences of the utilization of ecosystem goods and
services. Policy (Module 10) represents the legislative intersection with the management of the
basin, includes the previous and new Land act and polices from land tenure decisions to specific,
nominally informed, legislation.
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The overall strategy is to follow the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) model,
whereby the “best” information on status and scenarios is prepared and presented to Decision
makers, but is not prescriptive.
The Baseline is then executed as organizing and analyzing the information required to bring
each module “to life.” This framework can then serve as the organizing structure for the activities
of SLMP, including providing a basis for development of management scenarios.
The Cyber-Infrastructure for DRUKDIF
The computational issues and data organizational issues represented in executing the DrukDIF
are not trivial, but are manageable. Figure 2 expresses the sequence of issues to be resolved, from
the details of metadata and data storage, to facilitated access. It is useful to think in terms of
mobilizing the data from archives (and its attendant issues) to “data streams,” which focus on
specific outcomes, as represented by the modules.
The actual execution of moving data from archives to something useful is expedited by including
data services, for processing the data into usable forms. Given the complexity of outcomes,
experience has shown that attention to providing visually compelling data products is very
important for effective communication not only with decision and policy makers, but also with
the public at large. Underlying the technical details are the issues of dealing with (a) ownership of
and access to primary data, (b) where systems reside (national, ministry, agency), (c) accessing
and using core information from multiple locations for inclusion in analysis, synthesis, and
outputs, and (d) the communication of scenarios and likely outcomes.
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Start-up and Initial Execution of DRUKDIF
The DRUKDIF, populated with the SLMP information available and with auxiliary information
provided as needed, will provide the SLMP Baseline. In this section, we outline the next steps
for advancing the concept of the DRUKDIF into a functional tool for the Baseline analysis. This
process tracks the structure represented in Figure 2. Given the value of having a functional system
as soon as possible, for demonstration and organization purposes, two tracks are offered. The first
is a “quick start” focusing on initiating the core landscape/hydrology model. It is suggested that
this effort focus on mobilizing globally-available datasets, at a relatively coarse spatial resolution.
This could be considered a Phase 1 activity, transitioning into Phase 2. It is also suggested that
the organization and convergence of National Team datasets, based primarily on SLMP 1, be
mobilized simultaneously. This could be considered a setup activity for Phase 2.
DRUKDIF Version 1. “Quick Start-up”
This effort will focus on developing the information for the development of the core
landscape/climate/hydrology/water balance elements, using readily-available global datasets from
archives of international Global Change organizations, such as IGBP, NASA, FAO, etc. Based on
experience elsewhere, a logical resolution would be 8 km. The identified data modules and the
component data categories are identified below.
Drainage Basin Structure (Module 1)
DEM/Topography. A multi-scaled digital elevation model (DEM) capable of
representing the basic structure of the SLMP establishes the central organizing
construct for the multiple information layers of the Baseline study.
To serve as this topographic base data model, a DEM should be derived from the 3”
(90-m) Version 2 (finished) SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) DEM.
River Network. For the hydrology model, a (digital) river network is necessary to
“route” water across the landscape and down rivers. Using GIS functions, this can be
readily derived from the SRTM30 version 2 DEM and the Hydro1k basin delineation.
Soils. A basin-wide soil data file is needed to provide the soil characteristic texture as
a mask file and that specifies soil characteristics of each grid cell for the hydrology
modeling. The soil column is divided into three layers. The first layer is arbitrarily set
to 10 cm. The second and third layer depths will be calibrated and are, arbitrarily set
to set to 50 cm and 250cm deep. Bulk density, and sand and clay components are
derived through the SoilProgram (Carter and Scholes, 2000)5 for each grid cell, with
information derived from the World Inventory of Soil Emission Potentials (WISE)
pedon data base (Batjes, 1995). Other required soil characteristics are derived from a
look-up table, which specifies porosity, hydraulic conductivity, field capacity and
wilting point based on the soil texture (related to the sand and clay components).
Landuse/Landcover. The hydrology model requires two land cover inputs: the
vegetation parameter file and the vegetation library file. The vegetation parameter file
describes the land cover composition and rooting depth distribution of each grid cell.
The vegetation library file is a look-up table that details various physical attributes
(e.g. trunk ratio, albedo, surface roughness, etc.) of each land cover type. The basis for
a vegetation parameter file for the SLMP areas will be/equivalent to the MODIS 12Q1
dataset, entitled “MODIS/Terra Land Cover Type Yearly L3 Global 1km SIN Grid.”
This dataset includes several different classification schemes; the Type 1 (IGBP)
classification, which divides the land surface into 17 different land cover types, will
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be drought prediction. The strategy is to use existing measurements of river discharge
at specific measuring sites (gauging stations) as the means to calibrate and validate the
hydrology model7.
Climate Forcing (Module 2)
Climate data, as the “forcing” for the land surface, constitute one of the most important, and
the most problematic, data sets for evaluation of the LVB. The hydrology model requires as input,
consistent daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and mean wind speed. Other
forcing data (e.g., downward solar and longwave radiation, humidity) can be derived from the
daily temperature or temperature range. While local datasets are compiled (see below), several
existing global datasets are available.
Precipitation. Several options are available. The World Meteorological Organization
(WMO) and the re-analysis product (ERA40), from the European Center for Medium
Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) provide daily data. But ERA40 ceases in August
2002. Data from 2002-present are available through TRMM (Tropical Rainfall
Measuring Mission). The TRMM 3B42 dataset has 3-hour timestep data at .25-degree
resolution. The most appropriate datsets from these options will be evaluated and
compiled (likely the TRMM).
Temperature. The most likely source for temperature data is the NCEP product, from
the NOAA Climate Prediction Center Summary of the Day data archived at the
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
Water Movement (Module 3)
The focus of the work to be done is to determine river flow, and to compute intermediate data
products, soil moisture and evapotranspiration, ultimately relevant to agriculture, and flood and
Stage/Discharge Records. While global datasets can be used to develop much of the
information required for this initial characterization of the Baseline, specific data for
discharge must come from local stations. This is the top priority for Version 1 of
DrukDIF.
Landscape/Hydrology Model. The landscape/hydrology model (described above)
requires data on topography, climate, soils, vegetation classifications (with assumed
biophysical attributes), and river discharge. These data are to be provided through the
modules just described.
Water Use Rules. Dams and irrigation schemes alter the natural flow of water.
Identifying the specific locations and operating rules is beyond the scope of Version 1,
but need to be included for Version 2.
River Water balance (Module 4)
Water Level Records. Data on water level should be available from river level gauges.
Work on the remaining modules (Landscape Production, Chemical Loading, Lake
Water Quality, Fisheries, Economics, and Policy) will be deferred for DrukDIF
Version 2 (below).
DrukDIF Cyber-System Version 1. The process of assembling the above data and
models will drive the initial architecture of a “Cyber-System” capable of handling the
computation requirements.
DRUKDIF Version 2. Initial Development of Detailed SLMP and National Datasets
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The work done here will initiate the process of synthesizing the detailed local/regional
datasets, as part of transitioning from Phase 1 to Phase II. The individual datasets covering
multiple sectors currently reside in many different locations, within different agencies Bhutan.
The details of identifying what data is where, how to access it, establish use protocols, store it,
ultimately integrate and otherwise “harmonize” these data needs to be worked out as soon as
possible. Once the procedural details are resolved, dedicated personnel will be needed to do the
actual work. Examples of the type of local data that would ultimately replace or complement the
global data include:
Drainage Basin Structure (Module 1)
DEM/Topography. Contour maps at local scales are available in all countries. This
will be necessary for operating at higher resolution than is currently possible with the
SRTM products. SLMP currently has 1:50,000 contour maps for project sites.
River Network. Similarly, it is likely that detailed river network products exist.
Soils. SLMP Agency data on soil properties are of excellent quality and resolution.
Landuse/Landcover. SLMP currently has high resolution SPOT 5 and Quickbird
imagery.
Biodiversity (Terrestrial). Current information gaps and data needs for terrestrial
biodiversity are considerable and need further evaluation and analysis. The
methodology involved in biodiversity assessment includes key elements of the
biophysical resource (vegetation structure, site physical features including soils) that
will feed directly into the DrukDIF data framework.
Climate Forcing (Module 2)
Precipitation, Temperature. Extensive data on local meteorology already exist. These
data need to be identified, compiled into consistent across-region grids, and compared
to the global products.
Water Movement (Module 3)
Stage/Discharge Records. As identified above, these data are critical.
Water Use Rules The location and operating rules for dams and irrigation should be
identified
and incorporated.
Hydrology Model. As the regional datasets become available, they should be
incorporated into the landscape/hydrological model.
Reservoir Water balance (Module 4)- May not be needed for DrukDIF
Bathymetry. It is not known if additional work would be needed.
Water Level Records. Stream gauge
Water Balance Model. The model should be upgraded, according to new information.
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Landscape Production (Module 5)
Agriculture Records. Work should begin on compiling records on crop production,
and identifying data and information used to enhance cropping systems.
Livestock Records. The importance of livestock was brought up in several of the Team
meetings. The needs for this sector should be identified.
Chemical Loading (Module 6)
Sampling station chemistry. The existing data on river chemistry should be compiled
Sampling Station discharge. The discharge necessary to compute loadings will be
available
from the above hydrology work.
Hydrology/Chemistry Model. The hydrology model should be enhanced, to included
sediment transport and nutrients.
Lake/Reservoir Water Quality (Module 7) – May not be needed for DrukDIF
Sampling station chemistry. The existing data on lake chemistry should be compiled
Production estimate. Primary production of the phytoplankton community and its
limiting factors needs to be assessed.
Water Quality model. There are various options for implementing a water quality
model, which would ultimately evaluate such problems in how changes in nutrient
loading would affect eutrophication. These options should be evaluated, with a model
implemented as feasible.
Fisheries (Module 8) – May not be needed for DrukDIF
Catch/production statistics. Extensive data exists on fisheries production. It is
important to
bring these data together.
Biodiversity (aquatic). Most attention will focus on fish biodiversity, genetics, and
related production. In this respect, elements that are critical to fish breeding dynamics
such as shoreline vegetation and wetlands will include an investigation of both flora
and fauna. Because water movement and landbased inputs both affect biological status
of these marginal ecosystems, there will be a need for close integration with the
landscape/hydrology models.
Recruitment model. If enough information is available, an overall fisheries
production/recruitment model should be developed.
Economics (Module 9)
Ultimately, the economic value and feedbacks on which ecosystem services depend, needs to
be established. Linkages with existing bioeconomic and other models need to be established.
Policy (Module 10)
How to structure the overall SLMP process relative to policy needs to be addressed. This
covers a range of issues, from land tenure to specific legislation.
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Next Steps
In summary, a series of specific tasks would initiate a storage of information and data
for SLMP activities. These include:
Task 1. Initiate DrukDIF Version 1. The DRUKDIF, populated with the SLMP information
available and with auxiliary information provided as needed, will provide the SLMP Baseline.
The DRUKDIF “Version 1-fast track” should be initiated, and focused on initiating the core
landscape/hydrology model. Given the gaps in the immediate synthesis of regional data, this
should include mobilizing globally-available datasets. The execution of this task would serve to
mobilize and engage the overall SLMP community.
While there are several methodological approaches, practicalities suggest that this effort could be
patterned after the on-going PDFB/GEF projects on the Zambezi and China 3H, using the VIC
model as the base. This would involve:
(1) Initial terrestrial model setup
Develop data layers for topography, soils, vegetation, climate forcing
Acquire discharge data from key rivers
Model setup, calibration/validation, evaluate short-coming
(2) Extend LV Water balance, with VIC energy scheme.
(3) Evaluate and setup implementation of modeling engines, involving training, logistics, and
identification of people who would eventually carry-out the work.
Task 2. Begin Coordination and assemblage of data from the products of SLMP and relevant
projects by other agencies.
Considerable amounts of data are being acquired by SLMP. Relevant data have also been
acquired by other agencies and projects. In order to fully realize the information potential of these
data and to use them as effective building blocks for future work, it is essential that a systematic
approach to database development is ensured. To this end the framework under consideration for
a DRUKDIF would be appropriate. Most of the key elements of the natural environments within
the SLMP and larger basin area could be captured in a way that would facilitate investigation of
the dynamic relationships of the main ecosystem drivers. A framework of this kind would also
provide a means of capturing relevant socio-economic data and facilitating analysis of linkages
between these and biophysical elements.
Task 3. Initiate Cyber-infrastructure.
A central element in the development of the DrukDIF is the set-up and execution of the “cyber-
infrastructure” that would enable the actual work. This brings up two categories of issue to be
resolved – the technical, and the procedural. As outlined in Figure 2, the technical details include
resolving issues of data storage and retrieval, set-up for metadata (data about data), data
management tools, security (both computer and electrical power), how to represent and make
available information products, etc. The problem is more than traditional “Information Systems”;
a successful solution recognizes the requirements of the endusers (including decision makers).
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The first order of business is to design the system that will address three key questions in Phase 2:
• What are the procedures to identify specific sources of specific data?
• What permissions and authorizations are required to actually acquire that data, and
bring into the DrukDIF?
• Where is/are the INSTITUTIONAL host/s for the system?
Task 4. Capacity building and training needs. To facilitate the development and operation of
the proposed DrukDIF at SLMP sites, national and basin levels, it will be necessary to identify
critical capacity needs and the mechanisms and resources for addressing the capacity needs. It is
highly recommended that a regional stakeholder workshop be held, to address capacity needs.
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