Post-Soviet Armenia: Present Developments and Future Visions by Pnh6FNS9


									      Jean Monnet European Center
     8th International Summer School

  Post-Soviet Armenia: Present
Developments and Future Visions

                   Innsbruck, Austria
                   7 September, 2007

                   Hovhannes J. Grigoryan
                   Yerevan State University, Armenia

1.   Armenia – facts and developments
2.   Soviet Past and Post-Soviet Present of CIS
3.   European Neighborhood Policy and
1. Armenia: facts

 Territory           28.900sq.m            A bit smaller than
 Population          3.000.000             A bit less than in Berlin
 Capital             Yerevan – 1.000.000   1/3 lives in capital
 Official language   Armenian              Separate branch of
 Religion            Christian (Armenian   Separate branch in
                     apostolic) 97%        Orthodox Christianity

 Ethnic groups       Armenian – 97%,       As mono-ethnic as
                     Russians – 1%,        Japan
                     Others – 2%
Armenia: facts

 Export commodities    Diamonds, mineral products,
                       foodstuff, energy
 Import commodities    Natural gas, tobacco, foodstuff
 Political Structure   Presidential Republic
 Independence day      21st September, 1991
 Currency              Armenian dram
                       1Euro=450 drams
 Member of IOs         UN – 1991, EC – 2001, WTO -
Armenia: a rapidly growing economy

 GDP (ppp)              2.600 USD/1996 est.    China – 7700USD
                        4.500 USD/2005 est.    EU – 29.900 USD
                        5.700 USD/2006 est.    Russia – 12.200 USD
 Budget                 322 mln USD 1997
                        1.3 bln USD/2006
 Population below       59% - 1998
 poverty line           50% - 2002
                        34.9% - 2007
 GDP composition        Agriculture – 17,7%,
                        industry – 42%,
                        services – 40.3%
 GDP real growth rate   13.9% - 2005           China – 10.7%
                        13.4% - 2006           EU – 3.1%
                                               Austria – 3.3%
Armenia: budget growth 1997-2007

    600                               mln USD

    400          360    402
          1997   2000   2003   2007
Armenia: GDP per capita 1997-2007

   6000                        5700


   4000                 3800

   3000          2900

   1000    896

          1997   2000   2002   2007
Armenia: GDP growth rate 2003-2007

    14                         13.9    13.4
    10          9.9             10.2
                  9.1   99.1
    8       8
    6                                          China
         2003   2004    2005   2006    2007
Brief History
   First state founded 161 BC
   First country to adopt Christianity as state religion in 301AD
   Own alphabet – 405AD
   Was divided between Persia and Byzantium in 387AD
   Was divided between Persia and Roman Empire in 591AD
   New kingdom established 869AD
   Lost independence 1375, Kilikia Empire
   600 years of division between Persia and Osmans, between Persia
    and Turks, between Turkey and Russia
   Part of Russian Empire (East Armenia) from 1828
   Armenian Genocide in 1915 (in East Turkey), about 1.5 mln
    Armenians killed and deported, not accepted by Turkey
   Independence of Eastern Armenia – 1918-1920, first state
Brief history (continued)
   Soviet domination – 1920-1991
   Independence, 1991, 99% voted yes
   Devastating Earthquake – 1988, Spitak, 25000 dead, 25000 lost
   War with Azerbaijan for Nagorno-Karabakh, 1988-1994
   Blockade: Closed border with Turkey, war with Azerbaijan, unstable
    situation in Georgia and Iran
   In 1997 - Poverty – 60%; Migration – 30%, decline of all indicators
   1998-2007 era of economical revival, lots of investments from
    Diaspora (over 7mln Armenians worldwide), massive constructions,
    economical growth of 11-14% per year, decrease of unemployment
    rate and poverty rate
   Currently – most developed country in Caucasus, largest Army,
    highest rates of growth, flexible policy with Russia, US and EU
2. Soviet Past and Post-Soviet Present
2. Collapse of Soviet Union
Soviet Past and Post-Soviet Present

   Features of Soviet Economy:
    –   Planned economical development, figures were
        falsified, quantitative approach to reality
    –   No private property, so called homo sovietikus
        approach to property
    –   Cohesion of production mechanisms throughout
        the country, so that the independent state can not
        practically survive
Soviet Past and Post-Soviet Present

   Features of Soviet Politics:
    –   Centralized system of decision making, all
        decisions were eventually made in Kremlin
    –   Total control of political domain by one party
        (communists), no variety of opinions, no speech
    –   Total control of public domain (KGB), prosecution
        of those, who rebel against the system
Soviet Past and Post-Soviet Present

   Features of Soviet Culture:
    –   So called homo-sovietikus, disrespect of public property –
        no one’s property
    –   Community and not a person is a target – strong social
    –   Need for collection – uncertainty of future and constant
        cataclysms make the people to live for tomorrow rather than
    –   Private domain and public domain – two different worlds, -
        reality as a kitchen table tool only
Transition to Post-Soviet Lifestyle

   Decrease of almost all economical indexes –
    poverty, unemployment, migration
   Wild liberalization of state property – almost 80%
    went to 10% of former commissioners
   Thrift of corruption in state organs, the main
    resource – information, access to what is free
   Diversification of political life – rise of parties (up to
    100-200 parties), gas in the bottle
   Democratization process – rather as a target, than
    as a mean to democracy
Transition to Post-Soviet Lifestyle

   Loss of primary infrastructures – need for road
    reconstruction, drinking and sewerage pipeline
   Growing dependency on Russia – as for energy
    resources, military protection and huge market of
    employment (20-40% population of CIS countries
    are labor migrants in Russia)
   Rise of nationalism
    –   Liberal (fresh air after Soviet suppressions)
    –   Radical (anti-Russian, anti-Western, anti-newcomers)
Transition to Post-Soviet Lifestyle

   Formation of Commonwealth of Independent States
    (CIS) first as a solution, then as a problem
   Loss and search of identity – which way to go, which
    are the national priorities, and which international
    community to integrate to
    –   European Community (Ukraine, Georgia)
    –   Russia and satellites (Armenia, Kyrgyzstan)
    –   Muslim world (Azerbaijan, Central Asia)
3. European Neighborhood Policy
3. European Neighborhood Policy:

   Developed in 2004
   Objective 1: avoiding the emergence of new dividing
    lines between the enlarged EU and neighbors
   Objective 2: to share the benefits of the EU’s 2004
    enlargement with neighboring countries to share the
    benefits of the EU’s 2004 enlargement with
    neighboring countries
   Countries Covered: Algeria, Armenia,
    Azerbaijan, Belarus, Egypt, Georgia, Israel, Jordan,
    Lebanon, Libya, Moldova, Morocco, the Palestinian
    Authority, Syria, Tunisia and Ukraine
3. European Neighborhood Policy

   The EU offers our neighbours a privileged
    relationship, building upon a mutual
    commitment to common values
    –   Democracy and human rights
    –   Rule of law, good governance
    –   Market economy principles and sustainable
   Intensified political, economical, security and
    cultural relations with EU
3. European Neighborhood Policy and

   The perspective of moving beyond cooperation to a significant
    degree of integration including through a stake in the EU’s Internal
    Market, and the possibility for Armenia to participate progressively in
    key aspects of EU policies and programmes;

   An upgrade in the scope and intensity of political cooperation,
    through further development of mechanisms for political dialogue;

   Continuing strong EU commitment to support the settlement of the
    Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, drawing on the instruments at the EU’s
    disposal, and in close consultation with the OSCE. The EU is ready to
    consider ways to strengthen further its engagement in conflict
    resolution and post conflict rehabilitation;
3. European Neighborhood Policy and

   Deepening trade and economic relations; providing the opportunity
    for convergence of economic legislation, the opening of economies to
    each other and the continued reduction of non-tariff barriers to trade,
    which will stimulate investment, exports and growth;

   Increased financial support: EU financial assistance for Armenia will
    be available to support the actions identified in the present document.
    The Commission is furthermore proposing a new European
    Neighbourhood and Partnership Instrument (ENPI) for this purpose,
    which will cover the main part of EU financial assistance and will
    include aspects of cross-border and trans-national cooperation. The
    Commission will also propose an extension of the EIB mandate to
    Armenia as of 2007;
3. European Neighborhood Policy and

   Possibilities of gradual opening of or reinforced participation in certain
    Community programmes, promoting economic, cultural, educational,
    environmental, technical and scientific links;

   Support including technical assistance and twinning to meet EU norms and
    standards, and targeted advice and support for legislative approximation
    through a mechanism such as TAIEX;

   Establish a dialogue, in accordance with the acquis, on matters related to the
    movement of people, including on readmission and visa, between the EU and

   In light of the fulfilment of the objectives of this Action Plan and of the overall
    evolution of EU – Armenia relations, consideration will be given in due time to
    the possibility of a new enhanced contractual relationship.
Factor of Europe – Armenian

   Europe as a future
    Europe is defined as a standard of goodness, of high quality
    and guarantees

   Europe as a threat to national values
    Europe is defined as a mean of political, social, economical
    and, most important cultural expansion
Europe as a future – Identity 1

Large number of politicians and people state
  that Armenians are Europeans
 Cultural similarities
 Respect to European values (democracy,
  human rights, equality, etc.)
 Vitality of economical and political integration
 Europe on everyday life - level
Europe as a threat – Identity 2

   National values can be demolished under
    tendencies of westernization and
   Gay/lesbian/sects/crime expansion – big
    bang in the bottle
   Freedom to some extend or freedom without

   EU wants to deal with its Eastern partners –
    developing policies for basically security and
    economical reasons
   However, the matter of further integration of post-
    Soviet countries (particularly Armenia) is highly a
    political matter – relations with Russia are of great
   Cultural differences between European traditions
    and Soviet-post-Soviet values are seen to be
    possible to overcome, unless common language on
    economical and political level can be found
Thank you for your attention


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