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EIONET-slides-Stokholm-2-3-May-2011-sh6rt

VIEWS: 4 PAGES: 35

									EUROCONTROL ETS Support Facilities
     and Fuel Estimator tool

            Antonio Astorino
  Objectives

• Present
  • Eurocontrol
  • Eurocontrol Fuel Estimator (Small emitters tool)
  • Eurocontrol Support Facility for ETS aviation’s
    Stakeholders (Reporting Monitoring and
    Verification)
             • States/Competent Authorities
             • Aircraft operators


     • ETS-SF architecture and data provider services
     • Monitoring, Reporting and Verification process support
What is Eurocontrol ?

 • Public International Organisation

    • Not an institution of the EU

    • 49 years of existence

    • 2000+ persons staff specialised in Aviation

    • Multi-projects Organisation
EUROCONTROL and the EU


•
What Eurocontrol is doing ? :
Coordination Body
 • Pan-European Technical and operational
   « Coordination » body between :
       • a) Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSP) and Civil
         Aviation Authorities (CAA) through Europe
       • b) Telecommunications and transport National
         agencies and ministers through Europe
       • c) Aircraft Operators (AO) as well as their
         associations (IATA, ERA, EBAA, IAOPA…..)
       • d) Military and NATO
       • e) European Commission & Agencies – EASA, ESA
       • f) ICAO EUR NAT and Montreal, FAA (USA)
       • g) Standardisation bodies
       •        ARINC/EUROCAE/ETSI
       • g) Industry partners
            • Airframe manufacturers ,Engine manufacturers
            • Aircraft on board systems, ATC systems
What Eurocontrol is doing ? Manages and
Operates
•   Manages pan-European Air Traffic Management (ATM)
    Implementation programs and defines ATM standards

•   Operates pan-European ATM functions at every seconds

       •   - Central Flow Management Unit (CFMU)

       -   - MAASTRICH upper airspace control centre

       -   - Central Route Charge Office (CRCO)
What are ENV activities in Eurocontrol ?


  • ETS-SF, for CAs and AOs and Verifiers
     • Fuel estimator for ETS
     • ELSO, list publication for European
       Commission
     • Historical Emissions for CO2 CAP aviation

  • Others related modelling activities for NOISE,
    Advance Emissions model

  • Main partners
    • EC & MS & CAs & Compliance Forum
    • ICAO/CAEP WGs
    • AOs and Verifiers

  • Support to Regulation and research (1x staff)
ETS Aviation process is complex



• More than 35xx AOs to report to EU ETS
   • 5xx Regular AOs
   • 3xxx Small Emitters

• AC/Airframes NB in Europe approx 14xxx
      • 1 Aircraft = 1 installation
      • No other alternative energy than Fossil Fuel

• 27/30 States, +3 CAs Norway, Lichen, Iceland

• MS are responsible for emissions of Administered AO for flights
  outside their own Airspace (8.000.000 flights/year)
   • Impossible for States to “control” ETS unless help from
     Eurocontrol
      ETS Aviation process is dynamic




• At any time Aircrafts change owner/AO
• At any time ETS concerned parties/stakeholders change
  also
   • 300 changes in AO status per year in CRCO
   • More States in Future as EU30 or more
   • AO new entrants in ETS every year
   • AO at edge of de-minimis (2xxx AOs) thresholds
       • potential new entrants next years

       EUROCONTROL offers support to ALL ETS
                 Stakeholders
      ETS-SF Sys. Architecture                                                     Archives
                                                                                   ALL ETS workspace
                                                          Flight                   regularly
                            Latvia, Estonia,              LENGHT(3)
                             UPR, Iceland                 CFMU
  CRCO NATIVE DATA
                               Monitoring                                Production of
                                                                       ETS Specific Data
Flights                                                                        via
             Exemp-
                               CRCO Data        Data                     Fuel estimator ELSO*
Y + Y-1       tions
                               extracts       Workspace                         &        data
                               monthly
                                              for ETS                      Exemptions    updates
     AO                                                                   Identification
    Fleets                                                              (5,7, Commercial)
     Hist.   Airspace                                                           &
                                                 +ETS Data                 Geo. Scope
   AO                                            • Exemptions                   &
 Admin                                           • Fuel Estimate        AO attribution
data Hist.                                       • C02 Estimate          (Fleet list and
                                                                         CA feedback)


          AO-SE                                                                          CA

                          Report for AOs
                          Aggregated, XLS file                 Report for States
          AO-SE                                                Aggregated XLS file


                      Support AO’s Verification
                          CSV file all flights detailed                      * Eurocontrol List Support Office
Background FUEL ESTIMATOR– Fuel Burn
Data Acquisition in 2009


• Request for cooperation from EUROCONTROL’s
  Director General on 11 February 2009 to Air
  Transport Associations

• First data set received in March 2009

• Last data set received week of 2 June 2009

• Most data received late May 2009
Emissions Estimation Methodology


•ANCAT (Abatement of Nuisances Caused by Air
Transport) also known as EMEP/CORINAIR
  •Recommended by ECAC: “ECAC Member
  States should calculate the emissions of aviation
  as accurately as possible using ANCAT method
  number three as described in the Guidance
  Material” (ECAC 27/3, 8-9 July 2003)
   •http://reports.eea.europa.eu/EMEPCORINAIR5/en/page002.html
  ANCAT 3 – EMEP/CORINAIR
  Input & Output Data
A320                                                              Standard flight distances (nm) [1nm = 1.852 km]
                                        125          250          500       750        1000      1500      2000      2500
Distance (km)
                Climb/cruise/descent          232    463.048          926      1389      1852      2778      3704       4630

Fuel (kg)
                Flight total             1644.4       2497.3       3660.6    4705.0    6027.2    8332.0    10865.9   13441.3
                  LTO                     802.3        802.3        802.3     802.3     802.3     802.3      802.3     802.3
                   Taxi out               167.3        167.3         167.3     167.3     167.3     167.3     167.3      167.3
                   Take off                89.9         89.9          89.9      89.9      89.9      89.9      89.9       89.9
                   Climb out              232.5        232.5         232.5     232.5     232.5     232.5     232.5      232.5
                   Approach landing       145.4        145.4         145.4     145.4     145.4     145.4     145.4      145.4
                   Taxi in                167.3        167.3         167.3     167.3     167.3     167.3     167.3      167.3
                 Climb/cruise/descent     842.1       1695.0       2858.3    3902.7    5224.9    7529.7    10063.6   12638.9

NOx (kg)
                Flight total                  28.0         37.9      56.0      66.8      83.9     109.4      141.1     169.9
                  LTO                         10.8         10.8      10.8      10.8      10.8      10.8       10.8      10.8
                  Taxi out                0.775        0.775         0.775     0.775     0.775     0.775     0.775      0.775
                  Take off                2.491        2.491         2.491     2.491     2.491     2.491     2.491      2.491
                  …
                                                                                                       (source: EMEP/CORINAIR)
EINOx (g/kg fuel) =
    Emissions                ( Generic Aircraft Type , Flown Distance )
HC (g)
EIHC (g/kg fuel)
CO (g)                                               CFMU Based Actual
EICO (g/kg fuel)                                       Route Length
Fuel Burn Influencing Factors, ANCAT, Best
Available Data
Main factors influencing fuel burn of ONE flight


 •   Mass of Aircraft during flight
      • PAX (0-10%, EBAA example)
      • Fuel (40%)
          • Tank management Strategy
          • Jet or turbo prop
      • Airframe (50%)
 •   Distance (no height effects)
      • GCD (+95km)
      • Actual (radar tracks)
 •   Time
      • Meteo
      • ATM (LTO, stacks,,rerouting)
      • Cost Index (business type)

     • Cumulated effect : two “identical” flight, same ADES ADEP,
       same distance, same aircraft type could vary +/- 40%
Fuel Burn Data Samples (1)


• 23 aircraft operators:
   • European business aviation
   • European legacy carriers
   • European leisure carriers
   • European low fares carriers
   • European regional carriers
   • Non-European legacy carriers from the following
     continents: Africa, Asia, and North America

• Each aircraft operator provided data for one or more
  months for 2004, 2005 and/or 2006.
  Few provided data for periods relating to
  2007 or 2008
Fuel Burn Data Samples (2)


• Data for 59 aircraft types, covering both jet and turbo-prop
  aircraft.

• For 54 of them, the sample data has been deemed valid.

              2004           2005          2006

              92.2%         92.6%          93.0%
• The remaining 5 aircraft types were discarded because of
  insufficient sample data
         Fuel Burn Dispersion
                  AO_FUEL_EGLL_LPPR   AO_FUEL_EDDF_ESSA   AO_FUEL_LKPR_UKBB

8000



7000



6000



5000



4000



3000



2000



1000



  0
   600      650             700               750               800           850   900
A320 Fuel Burn Distribution
A320 Fuel Burn Distribution with Fit
B744 Fuel Burn Distribution
B744 Fuel Burn Distribution with Fit
Methodology after Reconciliation (1)


• AO SAMPLE
• If sample data then use new fit

• AO EQV
• If aircraft of same type of a sample (e.g. RJ70 vs. RJ1H)
  then use sample new fit with correction factor based on
  MTOW ratio
Methodology after Reconciliation (2)

• ANCAT with new delta factor
• If aircraft in ANCAT but not in sample, use ANCAT data
  with a delta factor based on difference between ANCAT
  aircraft family regression and sample aircraft family
  regression

                                          Heavy Jet

           30
           25
 FUEL/NM




           20
           15
           10
           5
           0
                0   50000   100000 150000 200000   250000 300000 350000 400000 450000
                                              MTOM
 Methodology after Reconciliation (3)


 • REGRESSION
 • If neither of the previous, then use average fuel per nautical
   mile based on model from sample aircraft family regression
                                             Heavy Jet

          30
          25
FUEL/NM




          20
          15
          10                                                            X
          5
          0
               0   50000   100000   150000   200000   250000   300000   350000   400000   450000
                                                 MTOM
         Fuel Burn Statistics




                                              Intra EU27     Non Intra EU27    Total
Distance: Actual VS Great Circle                     10.6%              5.0%       7.4%
ANCAT Fuel: Actual VS Great Circle                    7.6%              4.9%       5.7%
AO Based Model Fuel: Actual VS ANCAT GC               9.0%              7.6%       8.0%
AO Based Model Fuel: Actual VS ANCAT Actual           1.3%              2.6%       2.2%
AO Based Model Fuel: Actual VS Great Circle           7.7%              4.4%       5.4%
               Airport Coverage Representativeness

                                    in Sample                                                Sep-05

                   ARR in        ARR in                                                  ARR in        ARR in
Weigth     AC_TYPE TOP10 EU27 AP OTHER AP MVTS       % Busy % Non Busy % Busy % Non Busy TOP10 EU27 AP OTHER AP Mvt
  19.8%    B744            3,409    3,954    7,363      46%        54%    43%        57%         5,497    7,236  12,733
    8.3%   B772            4,557    4,853    9,410      48%        52%    45%        55%         4,163    5,007   9,170
    6.9%   B763            1,809    2,941    4,750      38%        62%    35%        65%         4,445    8,242  12,687
    6.2%   A320           20,506   35,352   55,858      37%        63%    33%        67%        24,951   50,052  75,003
    5.7%   A343            2,626    4,367    6,993      38%        62%    46%        54%         2,803    3,336   6,139
    4.9%   B738            1,656   13,487   15,143      11%        89%    14%        86%         7,188   45,040  52,228
    3.5%   A332              883    1,589    2,472      36%        64%    29%        71%         1,800    4,319   6,119
    3.5%   B752            1,425   11,710   13,135      11%        89%    24%        76%         5,141   15,955  21,096
    3.2%   MD11              647    3,055    3,702      17%        83%    33%        67%         1,231    2,450   3,681
    3.0%   B742              159      164      323      49%        51%    26%        74%           673    1,916   2,589
    2.7%   A321           12,654   22,030   34,684      36%        64%    37%        63%        10,333   17,353  27,686
    2.6%   A319           27,822   83,492  111,314      25%        75%    30%        70%        13,007   30,557  43,564
    2.4%   B733            7,230   10,522   17,752      41%        59%    23%        77%         8,497   28,516  37,013
    2.4%   A333              565      563    1,128      50%        50%    31%        69%         1,139    2,505   3,644
    1.9%   A346              600      594    1,194      50%        50%    50%        50%           677      674   1,351
    1.8%   B734            6,684   28,848   35,532      19%        81%    25%        75%         5,694   17,399  23,093
    1.5%   MD82               19    5,195    5,214       0%       100%    31%        69%         7,325   16,128  23,453
    1.4%   B735           12,670   46,768   59,438      21%        79%    32%        68%         7,305   15,749  23,054
    1.3%   B737            2,268    7,281    9,549      24%        76%    17%        83%         2,910   14,106  17,016
    1.3%   A310              267    5,710    5,977       4%        96%    22%        78%           828    2,984   3,812
    1.2%   B762              402      821    1,223      33%        67%    22%        78%           657    2,364   3,021
Airport Pairs from AO Sample
 Confidence Intervals of Eurocontrol Fuel (and
 CO2) estimator
 (Based on a confidence level of 99.5%)
                           2004                     2005                    2006
        Cluster     CO2     Confidence      CO2      Confidence      CO2     Confidence
                   share     Interval      share      Interval      share     Interval
        SAMPLE     92.2%          0.02%     92.6%          0.02%    93.0%          0.02%
         EQV        4.6%          0.10%      4.6%          0.10%     4.8%          0.10%
        ANCAT       1.6%          0.29%      1.5%          0.30%     1.0%          0.33%
     REGRESSION     1.5%          26.49%     1.3%          25.36%    1.2%          21.87%

        TOTAL     100.0%          0.41% 100.0%             0.34% 100.0%            0.27%


 err  2
      sample     err   err
                       2
                      eqv
                                            2
                                           ancat   i        err    reg type i   2




 •A confidence level of 99.5% with a confidence interval of
 1.5% means that by estimating the CO2 emissions using
 another data sample of the same size, there is a probability
 of 99.5% that the newly estimated CO2 emissions are within
 ±1.5% of the previously calculated CO2 emissions
   Eurocontrol Fuel Estimator = Small emitters tool



• Same algorithm as standalone tool is used in ETS-SF and in
  the Generated AER and CSV reports & files
   • also used in calculation of Historical Emissions at EC request
     (coherency)

• Is a STATISTICAL tool, very good estimator performances IF
  :
   • Applied to Multiple flights records
      • More flight more accurate aggregated (sum) CO2
      • CAP example (8.000.000 flights)
   • Aircraft types in use in AO fleet
      • If all fleet in Regression model aircraft types, increased
         uncertainties on Fuel and CO2 estimates
      • Mixed fleet (sample and regression), better accuracy
    Fuel Estimator feedback from Airlines



• comments (major airline) CO2 estimates is very accurate
• comments on Fuel over-estimates considerable for some
  Aircraft types (147 Jets concerned)
   • Minor ‘advantage’ in the CAP work
   • As a statistical tool, the tool also under-estimate fuel
     and CO2 in some cases (turbo prop) but no comments
     received so far, silent majority ?
    Small emitters tools Next STEPS



• => by the end of 2011 at the latest more accurate
  models of some aircrafts types, Fuel and CO2 estimated
  values in AER and CSV files more reliable !
   • Regression model Class improvement
      • 3 (or 4) sub class and not one
          • Reduction of Fuel and CO2 estimates by 23%
            in average for 147 Jets concerned (20 to 40%)
   • Gathering additional actual fuel burn from AOs
      • many contribution, actual fuel data, received since
        few months
Contributing to EMEP/CORIANCAT


•   Fuel modelling are available (and will be improved)
     • Linear parameters by Aircraft types will be published on a
       regular basis by Eurocontrol

•   Eurocontrol will propose a complementary methodology to be an
    input to the review of ANCAT/Emep-Corinair in coordination with
    JRC ISPRA

•   Specificities :
     • CO2 only

     • “Specific” LTO concept (intercept at distance 0) hardly
       differentiable from cruise
Questions ?


• Thank you



• Contacts :
   • Fuel model update
      • antonio.astorino@eurocontrol.int

   • ETS-SF project manager
      • Stefano.mancini@eurocontrol.int
Acronyms


•   AER Annual Emission Reports
•   AO Aircraft Operator
•   AC Aircraft
•   ATM Air Traffic Management
•   CA Competent Authority
•   CFMU Central Flow Management Unit
•   CRCO Central Route Charge Office
•   ETS : Emission Trading Scheme (as per Directive xx and related legislation MRV, interpretation
    etc…)
•   EC European Commission
•   EEA European Economic Area
•   ENV Environment
•   ELSO Eurocontrol List Support Office (in relation with AO-MS List published in June by EC)
•   ETS-SF ETS Support facility
•   EURO Eurocontrol
•   LEN3 Route Length Model 3 as from Flight Plan corrected when significant deviations
•   MRV Monitoring Reporting and Verifications
•   MS Member State
•   SE Small Emitters
•   SES Single European Sky
•   SESAR Single European Sky ATM Research
•   TKR Tonnes Kilometres Reports
•   XML Extensible Markup Language

								
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