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WRAP_MultiModel_May25_2004

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					                 WRAP Multi-Model Evaluation using the
                   1996 36 km Section 309 Database

                                            Ralph Morris and Bonyoung Koo
                                           ENVIRON International Corporation
                                             Gail Tonnesen and Zion Wang
                                           University of California at Riverside


                                          National RPO Modeling Meeting
                                                 Denver, Colorado
                                                 May 24-25, 2004
Presents:/slides/greg/PSAT_11-17-03.ppt
                         WRAP 1996 Multi-Model Evaluation
              • Four Models Considered
                       > CMAQ V4.3, REMSAD V7, CAMx_M4 and
                   CAMx_4Sec
              • Use consistent inputs (same grid, layers, BC, etc.)
              • 1996 Section 309 36 km Database Already Set Up for
                CMAQ
                 > CMAQ-to-REMSAD and CMAQ-to-CAMx processors
                   use to generate REMSAD and CAMx emissions and
                   IC/BC inputs from CMAQ inputs
                 > 36 km MM5 data processed by MM5REMSAD and
                   MM5CAMx processors
              • Acknowledge funding from Coordinating Research
                Council (CRC)
Presents:/slides/greg/PSAT_11-17-03.ppt
                         WRAP 1996 Multi-Model Evaluation
              • Evaluate across IMPROVE network
              • Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error
                used to summarize model performance results
                       > 1996 Annual Period
                       > January 1996
                       > July 1996




Presents:/slides/greg/PSAT_11-17-03.ppt
                                          SO4 IMPROVE WUSA

                                Fractional Bias                Fractional Gross Error
     60                                                  90
                                                         80
     40
                                                         70
     20                                                  60
                                                         50
       0
                                                         40
    -20                                                  30
                                                         20
    -40
                                                         10
    -60                                                   0
                CMAQ              REMSAD   M4     4sec        CMAQ   REMSAD   M4   4sec


               1996 Annual (yellow)
               January 1996 (blue)
               July 1996 (red)
Presents:/slides/greg/PSAT_11-17-03.ppt
                                          NO3 IMPROVE WUSA

                                Fractional Bias                 Fractional Gross Error
   100                                                   180
                                                         160
     50                                                  140
                                                         120
        0
                                                         100
    -50                                                   80
                                                          60
  -100                                                    40
                                                          20
  -150                                                     0
                CMAQ              REMSAD   M4     4sec         CMAQ   REMSAD   M4   4sec


               1996 Annual (yellow)
               January 1996 (blue)
               July 1996 (red)
Presents:/slides/greg/PSAT_11-17-03.ppt
                                          OC IMPROVE WUSA
                            Fractional Bias                Fractional Gross Error
  0                                                   90
-10                                                   80
-20                                                   70
-30                                                   60
                                                      50
-40
                                                      40
-50                                                   30
-60                                                   20
-70                                                   10
-80                                                    0
            CMAQ               REMSAD     M4   4sec        CMAQ   REMSAD   M4       4sec

                 1996 Annual (yellow)
                 January 1996 (blue)
                 July 1996 (red)
Presents:/slides/greg/PSAT_11-17-03.ppt
                                          EC IMPROVE WUSA
                             Fractional Bias                Fractional Gross Error
    0                                                 90
                                                      80
 -10
                                                      70
 -20                                                  60
                                                      50
 -30
                                                      40
 -40                                                  30
                                                      20
 -50                                                  10
 -60                                                   0
             CMAQ               REMSAD    M4   4sec        CMAQ   REMSAD   M4   4sec


                     1996 Annual (yellow)
                     January 1996 (blue)
                     July 1996 (red)
Presents:/slides/greg/PSAT_11-17-03.ppt
                                          Soil IMPROVE WUSA
                              Fractional Bias                  Fractional Gross Error
120                                                    140
100                                                    120
 80                                                    100
 60
                                                       80
 40
                                                       60
 20
                                                       40
  0
-20                                                    20
-40                                                     0
             CMAQ              REMSAD     M4    4sec         CMAQ   REMSAD   M4   4sec

                        1996 Annual (yellow)
                        January 1996 (blue)
                        July 1996 (red)
Presents:/slides/greg/PSAT_11-17-03.ppt
                                          Coarse Matter IMPROVE WUSA
                        Fractional Bias                        Fractional Gross Error
     0                                                  200

 -50                                                    150

-100                                                    100

-150                                                    50

-200                                                     0
             CMAQ              REMSAD       M4   4sec         CMAQ   REMSAD   M4   4sec

                             1996 Annual (yellow)
                             January 1996 (blue)
                             July 1996 (red)
Presents:/slides/greg/PSAT_11-17-03.ppt
                                     SO4 Performance 1996 WUSA




Presents:/slides/greg/PSAT_11-17-03.ppt
                                      OC Performance 1996 WUSA




Presents:/slides/greg/PSAT_11-17-03.ppt
       Conclusions -- WRAP 1996 Multi-Model Performance
              •      SO4 is the best performing species with annual bias < 15% that is
                     due in part to a winter overestimation compensating for a summer
                     underestimation.
                      > Performance for all models is worse than seen in Midwest (MRPO)
                         and Southeast (VISTAS)
              •      NO3 predicted poorly by all models with errors > 100% (winter
                     over- and summer under-estimation)
              •      OC underestimated by all models by –30% to –70%
              •      EC also underestimated, but not as severe as OC
              •      Soil overestimated in winter (Seasonal factors?)
              •      CM underestimated by –100% to –180%.
              •      Modeling western US more challenging than Midwest and Eastern
                     US
                      > Topography
                      > Cleaner conditions
                      > Higher crustal component
                      > More isolated emission sources
Presents:/slides/greg/PSAT_11-17-03.ppt

				
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