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Weekly Market Outlook 25.02.12

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Weekly Market Outlook 25.02.12 Powered By Docstoc
					Weekly Market Outlook                                                  25 Feb 2012
                                                                                                                                         make more, for sure.


                                                            SNAPSHOT
 DATA MATRIX FOR THE WEEK
                                                            The snoozing bears of the markets finally aroused from their sleep in the passing week and went ahead to
     20th Feb 2012 - 24th Feb 2012                          run berserk and halt the eight successive week winning streak for the Indian frontline equity indices. The
                                                            holiday shortened February series futures and options week turned out to be a turbulent one for the
                                                            benchmark indices which were battered in three out of the four session week leading to losses of over 2%
             Weekly Markets                                 points. The correction was long overdue as the bourses had not even once since the start of 2012 showed
Sensex                       17,924           -2.00%        signs of weakness. The week started on a promising note as investors coming from an extended weekend
                                                            resorted to hefty across the board buying and took the key indices which to the levels not seen since July
Nifty                         5,429           -2.78%        25, 2011. However, what transpired in the subsequent three sessions was only position squaring as
                                                            investors took hefty profits off the table after the recent sharp up move in domestic markets which
Gold(US$/oz)                 1,774.8            2.87%       skyrocketed over 18% in 2012. After the recent sharp rally, some sense of weakness finally got trickled in
                                                            as market men showed genuine signs of profit booking on the penultimate day of February series futures
Re/US$                          49            -0.63%
                                                            and options contract expiry. The derivative contract settlement session saw the bulls lose their stronghold
Dow                          12,983             0.25%       over the crucial 5,500 (Nifty) and 18,100 (Sensex) levels as the key gauges fell on extremely large volumes.

Nasdaq                        2,964             0.41%           3000                       Volume* & Volatility Index (Nifty - Feb 2012)                             30
FX Res (US$ Bn)              293.440            0.02%           2500                                                                                                 25
                                                                2000                                                                                                 20
                                                                1500                                                                                                 15
Net FII / DII Equity Activity (Rs Cr)
                                                                1000                                                                                                 10
Upto 25.02.12                  FIIs             DIIs             500                                                                                                 5
Total Feb 2012               21600.1          -9824.0              0                                                                                                 0
                                                                       10-Feb 13-Feb 14-Feb 15-Feb 16-Feb 17-Feb 21-Feb 22-Feb 23-Feb 24-Feb
Total 2012                   31,069           -16,554
                                                                *NSE
                                                                                  Cash Volume (Rs bn)            F & O Volume (Rs bn)          Volatility Index %
        Weekly Sector Movement
Sectors                      Close                  %
Auto                         10,033              -2.77
Bankex                       12,068              -5.24
CD                            6,544              -1.55
CG                           10,561              -4.91
FMCG                          4,190               0.89
Healthcare                    6,279              -1.51
IT                            6,309               0.67
Metal                        12,073              -3.97
Oil & Gas                     8,653               0.09      Indian economy is expected to grow at 7.1% in FY'12, marginally higher than the 6.9% projected by Central
                                                            Statistical Organisation's (CSO) advance estimates, as per the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council
PSU                           7,639              -3.41      (PMEAC). Provisional annual inflation for January 2012 stood at 7.65% as compared to January 2011. Inflation
                                                            in rural areas was up to 7.38% and for the urban areas it was at 8.25%, as per data released by the Ministry of
Realty                        1,928              -7.27
                                                            Statistics & Programme Implementation.

 WEEK AHEAD
Since the coming week marks the start of the new month, investor's will see a lot of economic data pouring in. Auto and cement stocks will be in the
focus as both Indian automobile and cement industry will report their sales number for the month of February 2011. Also India's export data for the
month of January 2011 would be announced next week. Meanwhile, India's manufacturing PMI data is also due to be released on March 1, 2012.
Additionally, market men will also be eyeing a deferred meeting of empowered group of ministers(EGOM) on divestment of Oil and Natural Gas
Corporation (ONGC) issue, which is scheduled to be held on February 27. Further, banking stocks are expected to hog some lime light in the coming
week as Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will meet banks on February 29 or March1 to discuss the bad loans situation in the banking industry. From the
global front, traders will be eyeing, US Durable Goods Orders on February 28, 2012 followed by GDP data, Jobless Claim and Personal Income and
Outlays data and finally ISM Mfg Index data on Thursday, March 1. Therefore 5300-5600 could be the trading ranges for the upcoming series though
momentum still favoring the bulls. Hence 'Buy on dip' strategy could be more useful to remain intact with market. HAPPY TRADING...
     Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report                        For Private circulation Only                          For Our Clients Only
                                                                                      1
Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd                                                               SEBI Reg.No: BSE: INB 010985834, F&O: INF 010985834
Office: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002                         NSE: INB 230781431, F&O: INF 230781431, DP: IN-DP-CDSL-73-2000, IN-
                                                                                                 DP-NSDL-140-2000
Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: research@moneysukh.com
                                                                                                 MCX/TCM/CORP/0740 NCDEX/TCM/CORP/0293
Website: www.moneysukh.com
Weekly Market Outlook
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  SENSEX 30-TECHNICAL LEVELS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK ENDED 2nd March Feb 2012
                                                              SUPPORT             CLOSE PRICE                RESISTANCE
                       SCRIP                           3rd      2nd       1st         24.02.12         1st       2nd       3rd    INCLINATION

Bajaj Auto Ltd                                         1663    1719       1743        1767.25         1800      1833      1890        Positive

Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd.                          274      291       297          304.00          314       325       342        Neutral
Bharti Airtel Ltd.                                     325      334       338          342.30          347       351       360        Positive

Cipla Ltd.                                             303      309       312          313.90          318       322       328        Positive

Coal India Ltd.                                        307      316       322          327.25          332       336       346        Neutral
DLF Ltd.                                               202      216       222          226.90          236       245       260        Neutral

GAIL (India) Ltd.                                      364      370       372          374.90          378       382       387        Neutral

HDFC Bank Ltd.                                         487      506       515          524.50          534       544       563        Positive
Hero MotoCorp Ltd.                                     1975    2027       2050        2072.30         2102      2131      2183       Negative

Hindalco Industries Ltd.                               138      143       145          147.75          151       153       158        Neutral

Hindustan Unilever Ltd.                                361      373       379          385.25          391       396       408       Negative
Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd.           635      655       666          676.20          686       696       717        Neutral

ICICI Bank Ltd.                                        879      905       918          931.60          945       958       984        Positive

Infosys Ltd.                                           2857    2903       2925        2947.30         2971      2994      3040        Neutral
ITC Ltd.                                               204      207       208          209.45          211       212       215        Neutral

Jindal Steel & Power Ltd.                              579      595       604          612.70          620       628       644        Positive

Larsen & Toubro Ltd.                                   1223    1297       1323        1349.90         1397      1445      1519        Neutral
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.                               691      710       720          729.25          739       749       768        Neutral

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.                               1248    1267       1276        1284.35         1295      1305      1324        Neutral

NTPC Ltd.                                              173      179       181          183.50          187       190       196        Neutral
Oil & Natural Gas Corpn. Ltd.                          261      274       279          284.25          292       299       312        Neutral

Reliance Industries Ltd.                               774      800       810          820.35          836       851       877        Positive

State Bank Of India                                    2017    2126       2166        2206.80         2276      2345      2454        Positive
Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd.                       109      114       116          118.65          121       123       128        Neutral

Sun Pharmaceutical Inds. Ltd.                          518      532       540          547.45          554       560       574        Positive

Tata Consultancy Services Ltd.                         1228    1249       1259        1269.15         1279      1289      1310        Neutral
Tata Motors Ltd.                                       250      258       262          265.40          270       275       284        Neutral

Tata Power Company Ltd.                                106      109       111          113.40          115       116       120        Neutral

Tata Steel Ltd.                                        445      460       468          475.70          482       489       503        Neutral
Wipro Ltd.                                             416      428       433          437.55          445       452       464        Positive




                                                                      2
Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd                                               SEBI Reg.No: BSE: INB 010985834, F&O: INF 010985834
Office: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002         NSE: INB 230781431, F&O: INF 230781431, DP: IN-DP-CDSL-73-2000, IN-
                                                                                 DP-NSDL-140-2000
Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: research@moneysukh.com
                                                                                 MCX/TCM/CORP/0740 NCDEX/TCM/CORP/0293
Website: www.moneysukh.com
Weekly Market Outlook
                                                                                                                  make more, for sure.


        NSE MIDCAP 50-TECHNICAL LEVELS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK ENDED 2nd March 2012
                                                   SUPPORT                  CLOSE PRICE               RESISTANCE                 Market Cap
                SCRIP                       3rd       2nd        1st          24.02.12         1st         2nd          3rd       (Rs Crore)
Adani Power Ltd.                           71          77        79            81.40           85           89          94           17745
Aditya Birla Nuvo Ltd.                    806         836        849          861.75           879          896        925           9782
Allahabad Bank                            141         163        177          189.90           199          208        230           9043
Alstom Projects India Ltd.                342         358        365          371.85           381          390        406           2492
Andhra Bank                               110         116        120          123.50           126          128        134           6911
Ashok Leyland Ltd.                         26          27        27            27.80           28           29          30           7397
Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.                      95         103        106          109.50           114          119        127           3188
Bajaj Hindusthan Ltd.                      29          32        33            33.45           35           36          38           2139
BEML Ltd.                                 606         628        641          653.95           663          672        694           2723
Bharat Forge Ltd.                         268         283        290          297.20           306          314        329           6919
CESC Ltd.                                 239         249        252          256.20           262          268        278           3201
Cummins India Ltd.                        404         432        448          462.95           476          489        517           12833
DiviS Laboratories Ltd.                   692         709        715          720.70           731          741        757           9564
Educomp Solutions Ltd.                    191         204        209          214.10           222          229        242           2057
Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd.       205         223        230          236.80           249          261        279           3606
GVK Power & Infrastructure Ltd.            16          17        17            17.20           18           18          19           2716
Hindustan Construction Company Ltd.        24          26        27            27.50           29           30          32           1668
Housing Development & Infrastructure Ltd. 92          101        104          107.85           113          118        127           4519
IDBI Bank Ltd                              99         104        107          109.50           112          114        119           10782
India Cements Ltd.                         79          88        92            95.45           100          105        113           2932
Indian Bank                               215         226        232          237.50           242          247        257           10207
Indian Hotels Company Ltd.                 68          70        71            71.70           73           74          75           5445
IVRCL Ltd.                                 43          48        51            52.95           56           59          65           1414
Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd.               97         102        105          107.40           110          113        118           4352
JSW Steel Ltd.                            735         773        794          816.05           832          848        886           18207
Lanco Infratech Ltd.                       19          20        21            21.50           22           23          24           5177
Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd.             26          29        30            30.95           33           34          37           1950
Mphasis Ltd.                              367         389        400          410.85           422          433        455           8629
NCC Ltd.                                   45          51        53            55.30           58           61          66           1419
Oracle Financial Services Software Ltd    1730        2105      2344          2583.90         2719         2855        3229          21692
Patel Engineering Ltd.                     95         102        105          108.60           112          116        123            758
Petronet LNG Ltd.                         154         158        160          161.40           164          166        170           12105
Piramal Healthcare Ltd.                   419         430        436          441.85           448          453        465           7625
Praj Industries Ltd.                       74          79        80            82.05           85           87          91           1493
Punj Lloyd Ltd.                            50          54        55            56.30           58           61          64           1870
Rolta India Ltd.                           86          90        92            94.20           96           98         102           1520
Shipping Corpn. Of India Ltd.              65          68        69            70.40           72           74          77           3279
Sintex Industries Ltd.                     75          82        85            87.70           91           95         102           2394
Syndicate Bank                             95         103        107          111.35           115          118        125           6384
Tata Chemicals Ltd.                       331         344        349          355.00           362          370        383           9044
Tata Global Beverages Ltd                 113         117        118          119.95           122          124        127           7418
Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) Ltd.       14          15        15            15.45           16           16          17           2931
Tech Mahindra Ltd.                        579         597        605          612.05           623          634        652           7797
Titan Industries Ltd.                     206         217        221          226.00           232          239        249           20064
Ultratech Cement Ltd.                     1317        1364      1383          1402.40         1430         1458        1505          38434
Unitech Ltd.                               28          30        31            32.45           33           34          36           8490
United Phosphorus Ltd.                    129         139        143          147.00           153          159        169           6789
Vijaya Bank Ltd                            56          58        60            60.70           62           64          67           2869
Voltas Ltd.                                98         104        106          108.50           112          115        121           3590
Welspun Corp Ltd.                         124         134        138          141.50           147          153        163           3223

                                                                   3
Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd                                            SEBI Reg.No: BSE: INB 010985834, F&O: INF 010985834
Office: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002      NSE: INB 230781431, F&O: INF 230781431, DP: IN-DP-CDSL-73-2000, IN-
                                                                              DP-NSDL-140-2000
Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: research@moneysukh.com
                                                                              MCX/TCM/CORP/0740 NCDEX/TCM/CORP/0293
Website: www.moneysukh.com
Weekly Market Outlook
                                                                                                                  make more, for sure.

FORTHCOMING CORPORATE ACTIONS



     Ex-Date      Company Name                                    NSE- Symbol                                   Purpose
    29-Feb-12     Plastiblends India Limited                       PLASTIBLEN                FACE VALUE SPLIT FROM RS.10/- TO RS.5/-
    1-Mar-12      Mandhana Industries Limited                      MANDHANA                    INTERIM DIVIDEND - RS.1/- PER SHARE
    1-Mar-12      Dwarikesh Sugar Industries Limited               DWARKESH                         ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING
    1-Mar-12      Escorts Limited                                    ESCORTS                        DIVIDEND-RS.1.50 PER SHARE
    6-Mar-12      Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited                      BHEL                             INTERIM DIVIDEND
    7-Mar-12      Standard Chartered PLC                                STAN                                   DIVIDEND
    9-Mar-12      GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare               GSKCONS                   AGM AND DIVIDEND RS.35/- PER SHARE
    9-Mar-12      The Andhra Pradesh Paper Mills Limited             APPAPER                        ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING
    12-Mar-12     ACC Limited                                           ACC                         DIVIDEND RS.17/- PER SHARE
    13-Mar-12     Eicher Motors Limited                            EICHERMOT                         DIVIDEND-RS.16 PER SHARE
    13-Mar-12     CRISIL Limited                                       CRISIL                     DIVIDEND - RS. 2.75/- PER SHARE
    13-Mar-12     K.M.Sugar Mills Limited                           KMSUGAR                         ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING
    14-Mar-12     Spanco Limited                                       SPANCO                   AGM / DIVIDEND RE. 1/- PER SHARE
    19-Mar-12     Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited                ONGC                              INTERIM DIVIDEND
    21-Mar-12     Nestle India Limited                             NESTLEIND                AGM AND DIVIDEND - RS.12.50/- PER SHARE
    21-Mar-12     Foseco India Limited                             FOSECOIND                   AGM AND DIVIDEND RS.7/- PER SHARE
    21-Mar-12     Helios And Matheson Information Tech            HELIOSMATH                  AGM AND DIVIDEND RS.1.50 PER SHARE
    21-Mar-12     Lakshmi Energy and Foods Limited                 LAKSHMIEFL                 AGM AND DIVIDEND RE.0.20 PER SHARE
    22-Mar-12     Colgate Palmolive (India) Limited                    COLPAL                            INTERIM DIVIDEND
    26-Mar-12     KSB Pumps Limited                                 KSBPUMPS                   AGM AND DIVIDEND RS.3/- PER SHARE




                                                                   4
Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd                                             SEBI Reg.No: BSE: INB 010985834, F&O: INF 010985834
Office: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002       NSE: INB 230781431, F&O: INF 230781431, DP: IN-DP-CDSL-73-2000, IN-
                                                                               DP-NSDL-140-2000
Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: research@moneysukh.com
                                                                               MCX/TCM/CORP/0740 NCDEX/TCM/CORP/0293
Website: www.moneysukh.com
Weekly Market Outlook
                                                                                                                            make more, for sure.




                              EQUITY CALLS PERFORMANCE FOR THE WEEK ENDED 24th Feb 2012
      Total No. of Calls                    Profitable Calls                 Positional/Hold                Exit/Stop Loss              Success Rate
                18                                  12                               1                              5                       70.59%




                  NAME                                   DESIGNATION                                                    E-MAIL
               Varun Gupta                                Head - Research                                 varungupta@moneysukh.com
           Pashupati Nath Jha                             Research Analyst                            pashupatinathjha@moneysukh.com
              Vikram Singh                                Research Analyst                             vikram_research@moneysukh.com




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                                                                           5
Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd                                                       SEBI Regn No. BSE: INB010985834 / NSE: INB230781431
                                                                                      SEBI Reg.No: BSE: INB 010985834, F&O: INF 010985834
Office: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002              NSE: INB 230781431, F&O: INF 230781431, DP: IN-DP-CDSL-73-2000, IN-
                                                                                                                          PMS Regn No. INP000002387
                                                                                      DP-NSDL-140-2000
Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: research@moneysukh.com
                                                                                      MCX/TCM/CORP/0740 NCDEX/TCM/CORP/0293
Website: www.moneysukh.com