Future Perspective

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Future Perspective Powered By Docstoc
					August 2009
CONSUMER/TECH:                                                         COMMUNICATIONS TAKEOUT                                         ➔ The European Union's Emergence Project found that by
                                                                                                                                          2010, 27 million Europeans will work from home at least part
Virtual Tourism                                                                                                                           of their work week, with employees in the United Kingdom
                                                                                                                                          leading the trend. The number of jobs filled by telecommuters
Is Virtual Tourism the way of the future or is Home                                                                                       could grow nearly fourfold to 19 million by 2012.
set to be the new Abroad?
                                                                                                                                      Insurance/Legal Issues
➔ Annually over 700 million people engage in international
    travel. Tourism’s contribution to national economies goes                                                                         ➔ Companies will need increasingly sophisticated insurance,
    way beyond foreign exchange earnings and revenue from                                                                                 healthcare and legal liability policies to deal with an absent
    taxes and employment.                                                                                                                 – home-based – and ageing workforce.
                                                                       http://photoskml.googlepages.com/gallery.htm#sftour            ➔ For the most part, it will be about adapting existing policy
➔ From being very beach-orientated, tourism has become                                                                                    types to the many specific life situations that older adults
    more sophisticated and fragmented; particularly with the                                                                              find themselves in. After all, a 70-year old man married to
    advent of low cost airlines offering a gateway to previously
    inaccessible destinations.                                      HR:                                                                   40-year old woman needs just as much insurance as a
                                                                                                                                          40-year old man.
➔ Technology presents both an opportunity and a threat to           Survival of the Eldest                                            ➔ Laws about age discrimination will become more robust.
    tourism as increasingly savvy travelers cut out travel agents
                                                                    An ageing workforce will bring employers a                        Mental Agility/Memory Protection
    and trawl the net for information on destinations, climate,
    ratings and the best deals.
                                                                    multitude of issues to deal with, not least ensuring
                                                                    that brain power matches staying power.                           ➔ The elderly, being the most resistant to change, will have to
➔ This is already changing the whole competitive framework                                                                                cope with radically and rapidly evolving technologies and
    but imagine a time where tourists choose NOT to visit a         ➔ The world's 65 and older population is expected to reach            environments.
    country with a bad ecological record or where the damage            1.53 billion by the year 2050, three times more than the      ➔ There will be an increased need for cognitive training and
    caused by long haul flights completely transforms our travel        516 million alive today. By mid-century, 16 percent of the        tools that will ensure that the silver workforce maintains its
    options. When it is no longer possible to hop on a plane and        world's population is expected to be 65 or older.                 mental fitness as well as keeps up to date with technologies
    be on another continent 9 or 12 hours later because the                                                                               that will be evolving exponentially.
    environmental fall-out can no longer be countenanced.
                                                                    ➔ The 85-and-older group will increase from 40 million in
                                                                        2009 in the world to 219 million by mid-century.
➔ To save the planet we may even need to limit our tourism                                                                               COMMUNICATIONS TAKEOUT
                                                                    ➔ By 2050, 100 countries will have an older population
    to the virtual world. This could provide opportunities for          accounting for 20 percent or more of their country, with
    Second Life, GoogleEarth or any number of new start ups             Europe remaining the world's oldest region.
    able to offer experiential products and services.
                                                                    Flexibility/Human Rights
➔ On the other hand, that would decimate travel operators,
    airlines and the hotel industry. And Home would have to         ➔ As the workforce ages, employers will have to build
    become the new Abroad.                                              flexibility into working hours to allow workers to build in
                                                                        more rest, as well as the possibility of absences for care
                                                                        giving to their own even more elderly parents.
HEALTHCARE:                                                         ➔ Increased longevity is a triumph for public health and the
                                                                        result of social and economic development. Nevertheless,
                                                                                                                                         ➔ It has the potential to form a link between business ethics,
                                                                                                                                             business basics, consumer engagement and bottom line
Age shall not                                                           many individuals will face, as they age, the risk of having at
                                                                        least one chronic disease, such as diabetes, hypertension or
                                                                                                                                             benefits, while also benefiting the health and prosperity
                                                                                                                                             of the wider community.
wither them                                                             osteo-muscular conditions.
                                                                                                                                         ➔ Consumers in the UK are now purchasing a product
The elderly population will also shape healthcare                   ➔ On a positive note, looming on the horizon are some                    associated with a good cause every second.
the world over.                                                         very promising drug discoveries. The biotech industry is
                                                                        developing new therapies that can cure such diseases as          ➔ Cause-related marketing can increase sales as much as
➔ 65% of health care costs are spent on over 65 yr olds.                Alzheimer’s — treatments that are bound to lead to the               74 percent in certain consumer-goods categories, and
                                                                        world’s first “lifestyle” drugs that deal with forgetfulness.        consumers spend twice as long looking at cause-related
➔ 75% of pharma shares are owned by the over 65s.                                                                                            ads than generic corporate ones.

➔ The pharma industry is owned by older people for older               COMMUNICATIONS TAKEOUT                                            ➔ In 2009 Tesco announced staff and customers had raised
    people and yet you would be forgiven for not realising this.                                                                             over £6.1 million for their Charity of the Year, Marie Curie
                                                                                                                                             Cancer Care. This total was the result of 14 months of
➔ Media headlines shriek of abuse, neglect or carelessness,                                                                                  fundraising in stores, distribution centres and offices across
    inappropriate medication, malnutrition and a lack of dignity,                                                                            the UK. The amount raised breaks all previous fundraising
    privacy and confidentiality.                                                                                                             records for a Tesco Charity of the Year partnership and –
                                                                                                                                             significantly – comes despite the recent economic downturn.
    The reality is that:
    • Treatment for minor strokes is often covertly rationed for
       people over 80 years of age.                                                                                                         COMMUNICATIONS TAKEOUT
    • Angina sufferers are less likely to see a specialist or to
       have tests if they are over 65.
    • Priorities for health and social care restrict targets
       for reducing heart disease, strokes and cancer to
       people under 75.
                                                                    It’s good to give
                                                                    As consumers come to grips with the new world
    • Invitations to breast screening stop for women over 70.       order post the global banking crisis and world
                                                                    recession, they are increasingly looking to                             http://tiny.cc/ejc3C
    • Older people tend to be excluded from drug trials.            organisations that share their concerns and
                                                                    reflect that in their marketing.
➔ In addition, the majority of older people will be living in
    developing countries that are often the least prepared to       ➔ Cause Related Marketing is not philanthropy, nor is it
    confront the challenges of rapidly ageing societies.                altruism; it is consumer-led and market driven. Used
                                                                        correctly and efficiently, Cause Related Marketing can
                                                                        also impact directly on the bottom line.
ENERGY/LOGISTICS:                                                      ➔ These issues are just one part of the complex issue of energy
                                                                           security. Beyond the threat of terrorism, energy security is
Oil terrorism                                                              becoming an issue of increasing importance to the United
                                                                           States and its European allies, as some energy producers are
                                                                                                                                           Elaine Cameron
The possibility of energy terrorism - attacks on the                       showing a tendency to use oil and gas as political leverage.
world’s energy infrastructure - may not generate the                                                                                       Strategic Research & Innovation EMEA
same attention as potential chemical or biological or                  ➔ The world’s vulnerability to supply disruptions will increase     elaine.cameron@bm.com
nuclear terrorism. But the economic implications of                        as international trade expands. Recent geopolitical
                                                                           developments and surging energy prices have brought that
such attacks are potentially enormous.                                                                                                     Stéphanie Bonnet
                                                                           message dramatically home.
                                                                                                                                           Managing Director
➔ Many believe that there is a ‘‘terror premium’’ factored into        ➔ Flourishing trade will strengthen the mutual dependence           Strategic Research & Innovation EMEA
    the price of a barrel of oil and that oil terrorism is emerging
                                                                           among exporting and importing countries. But it will also       stephanie.bonnet@bm.com
    as a major threat to the global economy.
                                                                           exacerbate the risks that wells or pipelines could be closed
                                                                           or tankers blocked by piracy, terrorist attacks or accidents.
➔ The vulnerability of Saudi Arabia to energy terrorism                                                                                    http://www.burson-marsteller.eu
    is a particular concern. Saudi Arabia is the world’s most
    important oil-producing country, being the largest exporter
    and the only country with significant excess production               COMMUNICATIONS TAKEOUT
    capacity. Over the last few years there have been several
    deadly attacks on Western oil workers. These have disrupted
    oil markets and had the effect of driving up insurance

➔ Pipelines, which carry one-half the world’s oil and most of
    its natural gas, are generally built above ground, making
    them common targets for terrorists and insurgents. There
    is concern that insurgents, having gained expertise from
    attacking Iraqi pipelines, will transfer their skills elsewhere.

➔ Global shipping “chokepoints” [such as the Strait of
    Malacca] are vulnerabilities in the world’s energy system.
    Various troubling scenarios are possible, including a terrorist
    hijacking of an oil tanker, to be turned into a floating bomb
    that could be detonated in a busy seaport.