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4th_budget_chapter2_international

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									Figure
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Title
IEA reference scenarios for global CO2 emissions
Copenhagen Pledges - Illustrative peaking by 2020
AVOID's post-Copenhagen 2°C trajectories
EU pathway to 2050
The EU carbon market from 2005
Early vs. late action to meet a global cumulative budget
EU ETS caps to 2030
DECC's carbon values to 2050
Source
IEA (2009, 2010), World Energy Outlook.
CCC calculations and IEA (2010), World Energy Outlook.
AVOID (2010)
CCC calculations and EEA (2010)
DECC analysis based on PointCarbon data
CCC calculations
CCC calculations and EC (2010) .
CCC calculations and DECC (2010), Updated short-term traded carbon values for UK public policy appraisal
IEA reference scenarios for global CO2 emissions   Back to contents
Source: IEA (2009, 2010), World Energy Outlook.
Note: These CO2 emissions are energy based.

For data please contact source
Copenhagen Pledges - Illustrative peaking by 2020                   Back to contents
Source: CCC calculations and IEA (2010), World Energy Outlook.
Note: Peaking scenario assumes pledges deliver 48 GtCO2e in 2020.

For data please contact source
AVOID's post-Copenhagen 2°C trajectories                                          Back to contents
Source: AVOID (2010)
Notes: Reductions in 2050: Case 1 - Annex 1 80% below 1990, non-Annex 1 57% below BAU; Case 2 - Annex 1 95% below 1990, non-Annex 1 53% below BAU.

For data please contact source
EU pathway to 2050
Source: CCC calculations and EEA (2010)
Note: 2009 figure is provisional

                                               1990    1991    1992    1993    1994
EU historical emissions                         5.57    5.47    5.28    5.19    5.16
EU indicative trajectory to 2020 (20%)
EU indicative trajectory to 2020 (30%)
EU illustrative trajectory from 2020 to 2050
1995    1996    1997    1998    1999    2000    2001    2002    2003
 5.22    5.32    5.22    5.17    5.06    5.06    5.12    5.07    5.15
2004    2005    2006    2007    2008    2009    2010   2011   2012
 5.15    5.12    5.10    5.04    4.94    4.60
                                         4.60   4.59   4.57   4.56
                                         4.60   4.54   4.47   4.41
2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   2018   2019   2020   2021

4.55   4.53   4.52   4.50   4.49   4.48   4.46   4.45
4.34   4.28   4.21   4.15   4.09   4.02   3.96   3.89
                                                 3.89   3.73
       Back to contents



2022        2023          2024   2025   2026   2027   2028   2029   2030



3.58        3.43          3.28   3.15   3.01   2.89   2.77   2.65   2.54
2031   2032   2033   2034   2035   2036   2037   2038   2039



2.43   2.33   2.23   2.14   2.05   1.97   1.88   1.80   1.73
2040   2041   2042   2043   2044   2045   2046   2047   2048



1.66   1.59   1.52   1.46   1.40   1.34   1.28   1.23   1.18
2049   2050



1.13   1.08
The EU carbon market from 2005                                                           Back to contents
Source: DECC analysis based on PointCarbon data
Note: Phase I and II EUAs are different commodities and were not transferable across Phases.

For data please contact source
Back to contents
Early vs. late action to meet a global cumulative budget           Back to contents
Source: CCC calculations


                                   2020         2021       2022         2023          2024    2025
Early action                        50.0         48.5       47.0         45.6          44.2    42.9
Delayed action (linear to 2030)     50.0         49.3       48.7         48.0          47.4    46.7
Delayed action (flat to 2030)       50.0         50.0       50.0         50.0          50.0    50.0
2026    2027    2028    2029    2030    2031    2032    2033    2034
 41.6    40.4    39.2    38.0    36.8    35.7    34.7    33.6    32.6
 46.0    45.4    44.7    44.1    43.4    41.0    38.7    36.6    34.6
 50.0    50.0    50.0    50.0    50.0    46.0    42.3    39.0    35.9
2035    2036    2037    2038    2039    2040    2041    2042    2043
 31.6    30.7    29.7    28.9    28.0    27.1    26.3    25.5    24.8
 32.6    30.8    29.1    27.5    26.0    24.6    23.2    21.9    20.7
 33.0    30.4    28.0    25.7    23.7    21.8    20.1    18.5    17.0
2044    2045    2046    2047    2048    2049    2050
 24.0    23.3    22.6    21.9    21.3    20.6    20.0
 19.6    18.5    17.5    16.5    15.6    14.7    13.9
 15.6    14.4    13.2    12.2    11.2    10.3     9.5
EU ETS caps to 2030                        Back to contents
Source: CCC calculations and EC (2010) .




                                                 2013          2014    2015    2016
EC 20% (Phase III)                              2,245         2,208   2,170   2,133

EC 30% (25% internal)                           2,245         2,183   2,121   2,059

EC 30% (30% internal)                           2,245         2,155   2,065   1,975
 2017    2018    2019    2020    2021    2022    2023    2024
2,095   2,058   2,021   1,983
                        1,983   1,946   1,908   1,871   1,833
1,997   1,936   1,874   1,812
                        1,812   1,750   1,688   1,626   1,564
1,886   1,796   1,706   1,616
                        1,616   1,526   1,436   1,346   1,256
 2025    2026    2027    2028    2029    2030

1,796   1,758   1,721   1,684   1,646   1,609

1,502   1,440   1,378   1,316   1,254   1,193

1,166   1,076    987     897     807     717
DECC's carbon values to 2050                                              Back to contents
Source: CCC calculations and DECC (2010), Updated short-term traded carbon values for UK public policy appraisal
Notes: £2009. PV discounted at the Green Book social discount rate.

                                              2010          2011      2012       2013       2014
2010-30: Traded Central                         14            14        14         15         15
2010-30: Non-Traded Central                     52            52        53         54         55
2010-30: Traded value, 2030 PV                  35            36        38         39         40
2030-50: Central
alues for UK public policy appraisal


                           2015        2016   2017   2018   2019   2020   2021   2022   2023
                             15          15     16     16     16     16     22     27     32
                             56          57     57     58     59     60     61     62     63
                             42          43     45     46     48     50     51     53     55
2024   2025   2026   2027   2028   2029   2030   2031   2032
  38     43     49     54     59     65     70
  64     65     66     67     68     69     70
  57     59     61     63     65     68     70
                                            70    77     83
2033   2034   2035   2036   2037   2038   2039   2040   2041



 90     96    103    109    116    122    129    135    142
2042   2043   2044   2045   2046   2047   2048   2049   2050



148    155    161    168    174    181    187    194    200

								
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