Short Circuit ACADEMIA
Sustainable development
Fostering the Future
Although Karl Popper maintained that the future is rorism), can drastically alter how both local communities
unpredictable, the forecasting work now performed by and global society function. The times we now live in have
teams of experts following the “foresight” methodology is rightfully been named the Anthropocene – for the first
of fundamental importance for sustainable world devel- time in history, mankind has become the dominant force
opment. The exchanging of knowledge, experience, and in shaping processes in the natural world. Nowadays com-
views between scientists, representatives of industry and petitiveness and sustainable development hinge not just
business, and public officials systematizes and integrates on technologies, energy, and raw materials, but also on a
our awareness of the most important fields of science non-degraded natural space. One country of considerable
and the economy. Through the end of the last century, economic potential developing a systemic approach to
research activity rested upon the canon of the scientist’s shaping its future, where the condition of the natural envi-
curiosity. 21st-century science, although highly special- ronment plays a significant role, is the Netherlands. Until
ized, strives to integrate various disciplines. recently, however, water ecosystems there were shaped
Sustainable, stable socioeconomic growth is attainable in keeping with the 19th-century engineering principle
only by taking a systemic approach, targeted not just of maximizing water transfer and ease of maintenance.
at predicting the future but also at foster- The now burgeoning fields of ecology and
ing it, aiming to shape a desirable vision of limnology, and especially interdisciplinary
the future world. The systemic analysis that environmental sciences like ecohydrology,
underpins the foresight approach is geared are laying the foundations for harmonizing
towards resolving the large-scale, socio-tech- economic functions with natural ones.
nological problems faced by humanity, relat- In Poland, an admirable example of such
ed to energy, technology, living conditions, harmonization can be found in the UNESCO
health, and the biosphere. Predictions and Systemic analysis demonstration project in the Pilica basin.
scenarios are jointly constructed not only by is geared toward resolving The main aim of the project is to reduce
scientists but also by decision-makers and the large-scale, phosphorous compound contamination of
all stakeholders involved in a given process. socio-technological problems the Pilica and Sulejowski reservoir, causing
While systemic analysis does have its limita- faced by humanity the reservoir’s eutrophication and toxic algae
tions stemming from the great complexity of blooms. A biofiltration system featuring wil-
the processes involved, its great advantage lies in bring- lows as its main component is now improving water
ing objectivism to the subjective process of decision mak- quality and turning sewage into biomass, subsequently
ing and a sense of balance to reconciling the frequently harnessed as bioenergy by the local community.
contradictory interests of various social groups anxious to This example illustrates how trans-disciplinary science
solve a given problem. and a systemic approach can ensure that environmental
Popper posited his view 20 years ago, when science protection is not a costly endeavor, therefore rejected by
was in a phase of sector specialization. Predictions then the public. Quite the opposite – the systemic application
made by narrowly specialized experts, without the cur- of ecological biotechnologies can generate a positive feed-
rently available methodology or broad interdisciplinary back loop, linking improvements in the condition of the
knowledge at their disposal, naturally had to fall short environment to economic growth and creating jobs, thus
of the mark. favoring sustainable development. ■
The development of integrative science has honed our
ability to forecast both microscale processes and meg-
atrends. However, while the new approach has given us MACIEJ ZALEWSKI
considerable capacity to predict the sustainable use of International Institute of the
natural resources of water, energy, raw materials, and Polish Academy of Sciences
space, predictions of the dynamics of socioeconomic sys- European Regional Center for Ecohydrology
tems are still characterized by randomness. Man as an under the auspices of UNESCO
unpredictable causative force, by making revolutionary m.zalewski@erce.unesco.lodz.pl
scientific discoveries and irrational decisions (e.g. ter- www.erce.unesco.lodz.pl
50
No. 3 (19) 2008