Downscaling future air quality projections to the “street-
corner”
EPSRC Urban Futures Doctoral Training Award at the Lancaster Environment Centre
The Urban Futures project (http://www.urban-futures.org/ ) is a unique research effort that seeks to establish
and test alternative future scenarios of urban form, providing insights into the potential sustainability impact of
today's urban regeneration decisions. Sustainability, no matter what definition is used, is all about the future -
putting in place now solutions to problems that will yield a positive rather than negative future legacy.
An important aspect of sustainability is air quality; air pollution levels can substantially affect the quality of life of
people living in and around a city. Urban Planners would like to try to protect citizens by designing urban areas
to keep citizens away from pollution sources. However, the ability of air quality models to capture important
design elements such as “green refuges” and “hedge filters” is limited. Modelling air quality in urban micro-
environments is at the limit of current research capabilities. Dispersion modelling is used regularly for assessing
specific point-sources and for simple dispersion of traffic exhaust - subject to generalizations about the urban
environment (e.g., surface roughness). Three-dimensional windflow-and-chemistry mesoscale models of the air
above a whole city (“urban air-sheds”) are available, but are useful for horizontal scales greater than about 1 km.
Dispersion models are used routinely for regulatory work; the other model frameworks are used as research
tools. Predicting the effects of multiple possible changes to urban design on “street-corner” level air pollutant
concentrations is beyond the power of any single modelling technique.
This problem — of assessing future air quality issues at the neighbourhood level — has many similarities with
the problem of “downscaling” global climate predictions to provide future local climate assessments. This
studentship aims to apply practices used in climate downscaling to air quality issues. Specifically, we aim to
develop methods to downscale results from a mesoscale model (i.e., nested modelling and statistical
downscaling).
We will use two main modelling tools. We have recently been awarded a Fellowship by NERC’s National Centre
for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) Weather programme, to build and apply expertise in the state-of-the-art
community model of atmospheric transport and chemistry, WRF-CHEM. This model is ideally suited to simulate
future city-wide air quality. The studentship will involve running WRF-CHEM and downscaling the results by
applying the results as boundary conditions to the ADMS-Urban dispersion model, and by using statistical
downscaling along with 'geographically weighted' interpolation that takes account of similarities in urban form.
The studentship will be closely linked to CERC, who produce the ADMS suite of air quality dispersion models,
and who are developing ADMS-Urban to incorporate more heterogeneity in the urban landscape. They have
agreed to donate substantial help-in-kind to the project, and to let us see early results from their own ongoing
development of ADMS-Urban, so that together we can produce guidelines for best practice in assessing future
air quality when all of climate, emissions, and urban form are changing.
The student will benefit from the research training programmes offered by the Faculty of Science and
Technology at Lancaster University, by being part of the large and vibrant Lancaster Environment Centre and by
becoming a core member of the Urban Futures team. S/he will receive training in the use of GIS techniques, the
ADMS-Urban air quality dispersion model, and the emerging community model WRF-CHEM as well as the
statistical techniques needed for the project. The latter will be delivered by the EPSRC-funded Postgraduate
Statistics Centre at Lancaster University. S/he will benefit considerably by working alongside our NCAS Fellow,
as well as the Urban Futures Research Fellows and others, and will rapidly become part of the world-wide WRF
user group and community.
The successful applicant will have a strong interest in, and possibly experience of, environmental modelling. S/he
is likely to have a strong background in physical science or engineering or be a highly numerate physical
geography graduate, and will have demonstrable potential for PhD research on this topic. Eagerness to work in a
strongly multi-disciplinary environment is essential.
Studentship funding: For UK applicants the studentship is fully funded with fees of £3,333 and a maintenance
grant of £13,429 (Tax Free) per year. EU applicants are eligible for fees only. This studentship is not available to
non-UK/EU applicants.
Academic Requirements: First-class or 2.1 (Hons) degree, or Masters degree (or equivalent) in an appropriate
subject.
Deadline for applications: Friday 14th August 2009.
Interview Date: To be Confirmed.
Start Date: October 2009, although a later start could be negotiated
For further information, or informal discussion about the position, please contact Dr Rob MacKenzie
(r.mackenzie@lancaster.ac.uk ), Dr Duncan Whyatt (d.whyatt@lancaster.ac.uk ), or Prof Nick Hewitt
(n.hewitt@lancaster.ac.uk ) who will jointly supervise the project.
Application process: For information on applying please email Andy Harrod (lec.pg@lancaster.ac.uk) and see:
http://www.lec.lancs.ac.uk/postgraduate/applications/ . Within your personal statement please state your
background and suitability for the project.