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3 ZEREFOS Parousiasi_9_12_2011

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					“The environmental, economic and social
  impacts of climate change in Greece”

            Christos Zerefos
Winter (DJF) averaged-mean Mediterranean temperature anomalies (with respect to
             1961-1990) from 1500 to 2002. (Luterbacher et. al., 2006)
                                          N A O in d e x
                                                                                                          4


                                                                                                          2
                                                                                                                   Changes in Rainy Season
                                                                                                          0         Precipitation during 20th
                                                                                                                  century and its relationship
                                                                                                          -2     with North Atlantic Oscillation
                                                                                                                         Index (NAOi)
                               16 00                                                                      -4


                               14 00


                                          W . G reece
(OCT-APR) PRECIPITATION (mm)




                               12 00


                               10 00


                                80 0
                                                                                                         r = -0.38 ( >99% conf. level)

                                60 0
                                          E .G r e e c e

                                40 0                                                                     r = -0.21 ( 95% conf. level)

                                20 0                                                                      60 0

                                               E .A e g e a n                                            r = -0.19 ( 90% conf. level)
                                                                                                          40 0


                                                                                                          20 0

                                       18 80         19 00      19 20   194 0   1 96 0   1 980   20 00
                            Emissions scenarios
     Temporal Evolution of
       CO2 Concentration                                 Emission Scenarios
under different emission scenarios                            Storyline

                                     SRES   Economic   Energy        Energy       Global         CO2
                                            Growth     Consumption   Sources      Population     Concentration
                                                                                  Growth         in 2100


                                     SRES   Moderate   Very High     Emphasis     Rapid and      850 ppm
                                     Α2                              on Fossil-   continuously
                                                                     Fuels        increasing

                                     SRES   Rapid      Very High     Balanced     Rising up to   720 ppm
                                     Α1Β                             emphasis     9 billion in
                                                                     on all       2050 and
                                                                     energy       then
                                                                     sources      declining

                                     SRES   Moderate   Moderate      Balanced     Continuously   620 ppm
                                     Β2                              emphasis     increasing
                                                                     on all       Slower rate
                                                                     energy       than in SRES
                                                                     sources      A2

                                     SRES   Rapid      Low           Renewable    Rising up to   550 ppm
                                     Β1                              Energy       9 billion in
                                                                     sources      2050 and
                                                                                  then
                                                                                  declining
Greek Climatic Zones
                       WCM: West-Central
                       Macedonia
                       EMT: Eastern
                       Macedonia/Thrace
                       WG: West Greece
                       CEG: Central-Eastern
                       Greece
                       ATT: Attica
                       WP: West Peloponnese
                       EP: Eastern Peloponnese
                       I: Ionian
                       ΝΑ: North Aegean
                       ΕΑ: East Aegean
                       CY: Cyclades
                       C: Crete
                       D: Dodecanese
Climate
 At the end of 21st century, due to anthropogenic activity:

 • precipitation will reduce between 5% and 19% for the territory
 • air temperature will increase between 3,0 ºC and 4,5 ºC
 • relative humidity will decrease between 1% to 4%
 • intensity of annual winds will increase by 10%
 • cloud cover will decrease between 8% and 14%
 • mean incident solar radiation will increase between 2,3 W/m2 και 4,5
 W/m2
                                           Mean Air Temperature
                   SRES A1B: Mean Air Temperature Change   •   2021-2050, SRES A1B : Over Greece
                      between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990          Mean annual air Temperature increase by
                                                               1.4 oC.
                                                           •   2071-2100: Over Greece Mean annual air
                                                               Temperature increase by
                                                               2.8 oC (SRES B2) up to
                                                               3.9 oC (SRES A2)
                                                           •   Temperature increase is more significant
                                                               during summer and autumn than during
                                                               winter and spring.
                                                           •   Temperature increase is more prominent
                                                               over land.
                   SRES A1B: Mean Air Temperature Change               Mean Air Temperature Change
                      between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990                between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990


                       SRES B2

                       SRES
                       A1B

                       SRES A2




an     s   e   e   e
                                                           •
     de nes ret eec
   la        C Gr
 yc kan
C de
  Do
                                                                 Precipitation
                                                                        •
                                   SRES
        SRES A1B: Mean Annual Precipitation Percentage Change
                                   B2                                       2021-2050, SRES A1B:
                  Between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990
                                                          SRES              Over       Greece      Mean     annual
                                                          A1B
                                                                            Precipitation is predicted to decrease
                                                          SRES
                                                          A2
                                                                            by 6.5%.
                                                                        •   2071-2100:
   t ic
       a
 At onn onn
           es
              e
                es
                  e
                    Io
                        an
                      ni ege ege
                            A
                                an  an des ese rete ece
                                       cl
                                          a
                                            an
                                              n C  Gr
                                                      e                     Over       Greece      Mean     annual
      o p    op           h      tA  Cy dek
   el
t P rn P
     te
          el
                    No
                       rt     Eas
                                       Do                                   Precipitation is predicted to decrease
  as
 E
                                                                            by 5% (SRES B2)
                                                                            and by 18% (SRES A1B, SRES A2)

        SRES A1B: Mean Annual Precipitation Percentage Change                 Mean Annual Precipitation Percentage Change
                  Between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990                                  Between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990
                                   Relative Humidity
SRES A1B: Percentage Change of Mean annual Relative   •   2021-2050, SRES A1B: Over Continental
     Humidity between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990
                                                          Greece Mean annual Relative Humidity is
                                                          predicted to decrease by 2%.
                                                      •   2071-2100:
                                                          Over Continental Greece Mean annual
                                                          Relative Humidity is predicted to decrease
                                                          for 2.5% up to 4% (SRES B2)
                                                          and for 6% up to 10% (SRES A2)
                                                      •   Relative Humidity decrease is predicted to
                                                          be more significant for summer season.
SRES A1B: Percentage Change of Mean annual Relative   Percentage Change of Mean annual Relative Humidity between
     Humidity between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990                         2071-2100 and 1961-1990
                                        Wind Speed
                                                     •   For Greece as a whole mean annual Wind
SRES A1B: Mean annual Wind Speed Percentage Change
          between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990                Speed will be not change during 21th
                                                         century
                                                     •   2071-2100:
                                                         Mean annual Wind Speed is predicted to
                                                         increase up to 5% over Aegean and on the
                                                         contrary is predicted to decrease up to 5%
                                                         over Ionian
                                                     •   During summer Etesian Winds will be
                                                         increase significantly up to 10%

SRES A1B: Mean annual Wind Speed Percentage Change         Mean annual Wind Speed Percentage Change
          between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990                       between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990
                            Cloud Fractional Cover
SRES A1B: Mean annual Cloud Cover Percentage Change   •                      2021-2050, SRES A1B:
          between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990
                                                                             Over Greece Mean annual Cloud fractional
                                                                             Cover is predicted to be reduced by 6%
                                                      •                      2071-2100:
                                                                             Mean annual Cloud fractional Cover is
                                                                             predicted to be reduced
                                                                             by 8% (SRES B2)
                                                                             by 12% (SRES A1B)
                                                                             by 14% (SRES A2)
SRES A1B: Mean annual Cloud Cover Percentage Change                                Mean annual Cloud Cover Percentage Change
          between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990                                               between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990
                                                                                    0

                                                                                    -2




                                                          Percentage Change(%)
                                                          Cloud Fractional Cover
                                                                                                                                                                     SRE
                                                                                    -4                                                                               B2

                                                                                    -6
                                                                                                                                                                     SRE
                                                                                    -8                                                                               A1B
                                                                                   -10
                                                                                                                                                                     SRE
                                                                                   -12                                                                               A2
                                                                                   -14

                                                                                   -16

                                                                                   -18
                                                                              ia ace ece ece                    a
                                                                                                                    es
                                                                                                                      e   e      n    n   n
                                                                                                                        es nia gea gea ade nes
                                                                                                                                                 s    e
                                                                                                                                                          et
                                                                                                                                                             e
                                                                                                                                                               ec
                                                                                                                                                                 e
                                                                            on                              t ic
                                                                          ed /Th
                                                                                   r
                                                                                          Gr
                                                                                             e
                                                                                                  Gr
                                                                                                     e    At onn onn        Io Ae            l
                                                                                                                                                   an   Cr Gre
                                                                        ac                                      p                      Ae Cyc    k
                                                                              ia      st       rn            lo     lo
                                                                                                                      p
                                                                                                                              rth Eas
                                                                                                                                     t
                                                                                                                                               de
                                                                     l M don We ste                        Pe     Pe                        Do
                                                                  tra ace                Ea             st ern              No
                                                                en M                ra
                                                                                      l-               e
                                                                                                      W ast
                                                             t-C    n            nt
                                                           es ster             Ce
                                                                                                          E
                                                          W
                                                              Ea
        Downward Short Wave Surface Radiation
SRES A1B: Mean Annual Downward Sort Wave Surface Radiation   •   2021-2050, SRES A1B:
                         Change
             between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990                     Mean Annual Downward Sort Wave
                                                                 Surface Radiation increase by 1,3 W/m2.
                                                             •   2071-2100:
                                                                 Mean Annual Downward Sort Wave Surface
                                                                 Radiation increase
                                                                 by 3,1 W/m2 (SRES B2)
                                                                 by 4,1 W/m2 (SRES A2)
                                                             •   The increase is more prominent over land,
                                                                 especially in western and northern parts
SRES A1B: Mean Annual Downward Sort Wave Surface Radiation       Mean Annual Downward Sort Wave Surface Radiation Change
                         Change                                              between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990
             between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990
Climate

 Changes are also expected on

 •   extreme precipitation values
 •   flood periods
 •   duration of dry periods
 •   number of days with a highly increased risk of fire
Precipitation deficit as
drought potential
indication (number of
events for the period
1904-1995)
      Maximum duration of dry season


                              Increase of maximum duration of dry
                              season in Eastern Continental
                              Greece and Northern Crete

                            • by 20 additional days in 2021-
                              2050
2021-2050 μείον 1961-1990
                            • by 40 additional days in 2071-
                              2100

                              Lower increases in westerm and
                              northern Greece up to 20 days in
                              2071-2100
2071-2100 μείον 1961-1990
Forest fire distribution on
European level (1997-2003)
Number of days with highly increased forest
                fire risk
                               Increase in the number of days with
                               highly increased forest fire risk in
                               eastern Greece


                             • 20 days in 2021-2050
 2021-2050 minus 1961-1990   • 40 days in 2071-2100


                               Lower increases in western Greece
                               due to wetter climate


 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990
Water Resources
 Total losses for the economy of Greece:

 •0,34% of GDP
 for the A1B Emissions Scenario with discount rate 3%

 •1,69% of GDP
 for the A2 Emissions Scenario with discount rate 1%


 Important potential for adaptation actions
Sea Level Rise and
Consequences in Coastal Areas


   • €4.4bn for a sea level rise of 0.5m
   • €8bn for a sea level rise of 1m
Fishing Industry
 Losses for Greek economy:


 €14.8m to €2.5m depending on
    •Emissions Scenario
    •Discount rate 1% to 3%)


 Economic cost of the reduction of biodiversity:

     €287m to €1,896m
Agriculture

 •Loss of agricultural land:
     • 19% by 2040-2050
     • 38% by 2090-2100

 •Warm-friendly cultivations: +20%
 Cold-friendly cultivations: -20%

 •Positive impact in northern and western Greece
 •No impact in Central Greece
 •Negative impact in southern Greece and islands including Crete

 Negative effects most pronounced near the end of the 21st century
Forestry and Forest Ecosystems


 •Fire fighting expenses will rise by €40m (Β2) to €80m (Α2)

 •Direct consecuences:
     •Losses of €1.4bn (Β2) with discount rate 3%
     •Losses of €9.5bn (Α2) with discount rate 1%
Biodiversity and Ecosystems


 •€1.14m to €240.83m for forest ecosystems

 •€15.59m to €172.1m for the lakes Cheimaditida and Kerkini



 The total economic consequences could not be estimated
 The estimated consequences may be considered as the lower limit of the
 total
Tourism
 Tourism climate index

 •   Winter and spring: Improvment
 •   Autumn: Great improvment
 •   Summer: Significant worsening



 Crete: Rise in the mean annual income
 Dodekanese: Reduction in the mean annual income
Building environment


 Cost for nulifying the energy consumption of the building
 sector by 2050

 •Additional cost due to climate change: 9.6%
    •Ranges from 7.6% to 10.3% in the different areas

 •Additional cost estimated to €20-21bn
Transportation


 •Cost for the infrastructure maintenance €594,8m/year to €195m/year
 depending on the GHG emissions

 •Cost of delays in service due to climate change (extreme events,
 overheating of infrastructure etc.): €28bn to €9.3bn
Public Health


 •Increase in mortality in Europe: 1% to 4%
 •Mortality due to extreme temperatures, in Attica, in 2091-2100: 1620
 deaths per year
 •Economical cost for Attica: €95m per year
 •Mortality increase in Ahens: 2260 to 1455 deaths per year
 •Economical cost for Athens: €85m to €135m
Cost of No-Action Scenario

 •Annual GDP reduction in 2050: 2%
 Annual GDP reduction in 2100: 6%

 •Accumulated cost to 2100: €701bn (values of 2008)

 •The accumulated cost to 2100 equals to three times the GDB of Greece
 Similar results have been reached for the whole Earth
Cost of Mitigation Scenario

 •Cost of GHG emissions reduction: €142bn

 •Cost of residual climate change

 •Accumulated cost of Mitigation Scenario to 2100: €436bn
     •€265bn less (-40%) than No-Action Scenario

 Discount rate was concidered zero
Cost of Adaptation Scenario
 Sum of
 •Cost of adaptation measures
 •Cost of damages due to climate change


 Accumulated cost of Adaptation Scenario to 2100: €578bn
Links


  • http://www.bankofgreece.gr/Pages/el/klima/default.aspx

  • http://www.bankofgreece.gr/Pages/el/klima/results.aspx

				
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