2-12-cpac-straw-poll-and-national-survey-comparison

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					CPAC Straw Poll and National
  Telephone Survey of Self-
   Identified Conservatives
    National Survey: February 7-8, 2012
    CPAC Straw Poll: February 9-11, 2012
Key Points about the Straw Poll
 • Ballots collected online via secure web portal requiring randomly generated
   one-time-use-only PIN numbers to complete the survey.
 • Ballots collected from Thursday morning at 9 a.m. through Saturday afternoon
   at 1 p.m.
 • Only registrants could vote.
 • 50 States plus DC represented in the balloting.

Key Points about the National Survey
 • Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates conducted a nationwide survey of 600 likely
   self-identified conservative voters via telephone.
 • Interviews were stratified into proportionate geographic units based on
   previous voter turnout.
 • Survey conducted February 7-8, 2012.
 • Margin of error at the 95% confidence interval for 600 likely self-identified
   conservative voters is ±4.00%.

CPAC Straw Poll/Nat'l Con. Survey Feb 2012                                         2
Historical Straw Poll Votes Cast
                                                                        3,742
                                                                                3,408



                                                                2,395


                                        1,705           1,757
                                                1,558
                       1,251

       641




      2005             2006              2007   2008    2009    2010    2011    2012

CPAC Straw Poll/Nat'l Con. Survey Feb 2012                                              3
Type of Registrant
50%
                            45%                                                          44%
45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%                                               8%
 5%
                                                                      4%

 0%
                                                         Straw Poll
                                       Individual
                                       Associated with CPAC Participating Organization
                                       CPAC Participating Organization
                                       Student

CPAC Straw Poll/Nat'l Con. Survey Feb 2012                                                     4
 Personal Core Beliefs
   70%
                                                                      My most important goal is to
             63%                                                      promote individual freedom by
   60%
                                                                      reducing the size and scope of
                                                                      government and its intrusion into the
                                                                      lives of its citizens.
   50%                                         48%
                                                                      My most important goal is to
                                                                      promote traditional values by
   40%                                                                protecting traditional marriage and
                                                                      protecting the life of the unborn.
                                                     32%
   30%
                                                                      My most important goal is to secure
                                                                      and guarantee American safety at
                      19%
   20%                                                                home and abroad regardless of the
                                                           13%        cost or the size of government.
                               12%
   10%
                                        6%                       7%
                                                                      Other/None/DK/Refused

    0%
                      Straw Poll                     National


Q. Which ONE of the following comes closest to your core beliefs?
  CPAC Straw Poll/Nat'l Con. Survey Feb 2012                                                                  5
 Barack Obama Job Approval
 100%                                          97%

  90%

                                                                                     79%
  80%

  70%

  60%

  50%

  40%

  30%

                                                                  19%
  20%

  10%
                          2%           -95                                  -60
   0%
                                  Straw Poll                              National

                                    Approve          Disapprove       Net Approve

Q. Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?
  CPAC Straw Poll/Nat'l Con. Survey Feb 2012                                                         6
 GOP in Congress Job Approval
  80%

                         70%
  70%


  60%


  50%                                                              48%
                                                                                      46%

  40%


  30%                                          28%

  20%


  10%

                                       +42                                   +2
   0%
                                  Straw Poll                              National

                                    Approve          Disapprove       Net Approve
Q. Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republicans in Congress are
doing?
  CPAC Straw Poll/Nat'l Con. Survey Feb 2012                                                     7
 Most Important Priority
   40%
                                36%
   35%                                                         34%       34%

   30%
                  26%
   25%
                                               21%
                                                                                  20%
   20%
                                                     16%
   15%                                                                                      13%

   10%


    5%


    0%
                                  Straw Poll                               National
         Passage of a Balanced Budget Amendment            Enactment of a National Debt Reduction Plan
         Passage of a Tax Reform Plan                      All/Other/DK/Refused

Q. Which of the following is MOST important to you? Is it…
  CPAC Straw Poll/Nat'l Con. Survey Feb 2012                                                             8
 Preferred Tax Reform Plan
   60%
                                               55%                    A tax reform plan that replaces the
                                                                      current multiple tax rate system with
   50%
                                                                      a SINGLE flat tax rate that everyone
               46%                                                    would pay on their income and/or
                                                                      capital gains while eliminating most
                                                                      tax deductions.
   40%


                                                                      A tax reform plan that would do away
   30%                               28%                              with the current tax system and
                          26%                          27%
                                                                      replace it with a national sales tax on
                                                                      all goods and services bought and not
   20%                                                          18%   on income or capital gains.



   10%                                                                Other/Neither/DK/Refused


   0%
                      Straw Poll                     National


Q. Which of the following tax reform plans would you favor MOST?
  CPAC Straw Poll/Nat'l Con. Survey Feb 2012                                                                    9
  GOP Vice-Presidential Choice
                  Senator Marco Rubio                                                                            34%
                                                                                      15%
                Governor Chris Christie                                   9%
                                                                                      15%
             Governor Bob McDonnell                                       9%
                                                      1%
               Congressman Paul Ryan                                  8%
                                                                5%
               Governor Mitch Daniels                            6%
                                                           3%
           Businessman Herman Cain                              5%
                                                                     7%
                    Governor Rick Perry                     4%
                                                                          9%
   Former Governor Jon Huntsman                           4%
                                                         3%
            Governor Susan Martinez                    2%
                                                      1%
                 Speaker John Boehner                 1%
                                                                 6%
                    Senator Pat Toomey                1%
                                                     <1%
                                        Other                                   12%
                                                                      8%
               Undecided/DK/Refused                             5%
                                                                                                         27%
                                                0%          5%            10%     15%       20%    25%     30%   35%   40%


                                                      Straw Poll                        National
Q. Putting aside who you would like to see as the Republican Nominee for President, who would be your FIRST choice to
be the Republican VICE PRESIDENTIAL candidate? Would it be?
   CPAC Straw Poll/Nat'l Con. Survey Feb 2012                                                                            10
 Most Important in Choosing Nominee
   70%



   60%
                                        59%
                                                                                    56%

   50%



   40%                38%
                                                                        33%
   30%



   20%

                                                                                             11%
   10%
                                                   3%
    0%
                                   Straw Poll                                     National
                                       A candidate’s chances of defeating President Obama
                                       A candidate’s positions on the issues
                                       DK/Refused
Q. Which of the following is MOST important to you in choosing who you favor for as the Republican
Presidential Nominee?
  CPAC Straw Poll/Nat'l Con. Survey Feb 2012                                                         11
  GOP Presidential Ballot
         Mitt Romney                                                                             27%



       Rick Santorum                                                                       25%



        Newt Gingrich                                                         20%



               Ron Paul                             8%



    Other/Undecided                                                           20%


                             0%                5%        10%   15%         20%           25%           30%




                                                         National
Q. Thinking about the current field of Republican Presidential candidates, who would be your FIRST choice
to be the Republican Presidential Nominee?
  CPAC Straw Poll/Nat'l Con. Survey Feb 2012                                                           12
  GOP Presidential Ballot
         Mitt Romney                                                                                 38%



       Rick Santorum                                                                    31%



        Newt Gingrich                                         15%



               Ron Paul                               12%



    Other/Undecided                        4%


                             0%            5%   10%         15%     20%   25%     30%         35%     40%




                                                      Straw Poll
Q. Thinking about the current field of Republican Presidential candidates, who would be your FIRST choice
to be the Republican Presidential Nominee?
  CPAC Straw Poll/Nat'l Con. Survey Feb 2012                                                           13
 Age
   90%
                          83%
   80%


   70%


   60%                                                                               56%
   50%
                                                                    41%
   40%


   30%


   20%                                          16%
   10%


    0%

                                   Straw Poll                             National


                                                      18-55   55+

Q. In what year were you born?
  CPAC Straw Poll/Nat'l Con. Survey Feb 2012                                               14
Gender
 70%

                        60%
 60%

                                                                    50%              50%
 50%

                                              40%
 40%


 30%


 20%


 10%


  0%

                                 Straw Poll                               National

                                                    Male   Female


CPAC Straw Poll/Nat'l Con. Survey Feb 2012                                                 15

				
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