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The Biofuel Revolution Implications for CGIAR ‘Public Goods’ Research

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					The Biofuel Revolution: Implications for CGIAR ‘Public Goods’ Research
Kenneth G. Cassman, Director Nebraska Center for Energy Sciences Research University of Nebraska—Lincoln www.ncesr.unl.edu

27 Aug 2007

8th CGIAR SC meeting

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Mega Trends
• Rapid rate of economic growth in most populous developing countries
– Per capita increases in consumption of energy and livestock products

• Climate change and increasing public concern about protection of environmental quality and natural resources • Uncertainty of petroleum supply
– Political instability in oil-producing countries – Decreasing replacement of petroleum reserves – Rising petroleum and motor fuel prices
27 Aug 2007 8th CGIAR SC meeting 2

Energy Consumption and Income are Linked
5 billion low-income people in countries with rapid economic growth rates

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Oil Production vs Oil Discovery

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Response to Rising Petroleum Prices
• Increased public and private sector investment in expansion of ‘first generation’ biofuels production capacity from starch, sugar, and oilseed crops • Convergence of energy and agriculture
– Highest value use of these crops is now as a biofuel feedstock, not as food or livestock feed – Rapid rise in crop commodity prices and spillover to non-biofuel crops and forages – Expansion of biofuel crop area

•

Abrupt change from 50 years of supplydominated crop commodity markets to demand-driven markets
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27 Aug 2007

Ethanol feedstock is now the highest value use for maize.
Breakeven maize price versus ethanol price; current CBOT ethanol price is about $1.80/gallon ($0.48/L). Assumes US$10/Mbtu for natural gas.

Current ethanol price justifies corn price of ≈ $3.90/bu ($154/metric ton) Natural gas @ $6 per Mbtu and current ethanol price justifies corn @ ≈ $4.25/bu ($167/metric ton)

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Corn ethanol co-product distillers grains are a nutritious livestock feed:
• • • • 30% CP(65% UIP), 0.8% P, 11% fat, 40% NDF High fiber energy source with high digestibility Energy content and feeding value ~125% (wet or dry) of corn; can replace 40% of beef cattle diets Sulfur content - .35 to 1.0%, variable

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Expansion of USA Maize-Ethanol Production
40%
32%

Percentage of projected USA maize production, assuming 36 Mha planted maize area and trend line yield increase

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Expansion of Biofuel Production is a Global Phenomenon
• Brazil: tremendous capacity to increase ethanol production from sugarcane, biodiesel from soybean and perhaps oil palm • Indonesia/Malaysia: rapid expansion of biodiesel from oil palm (perhaps also Nigeria and DR-Congo) • Europe and Canada: expansion of biodiesel from canola
27 Aug 2007 8th CGIAR SC meeting 9

Gross Energy Yield of Various Biofuel Crops
Crop Oil Palm-BD Oil Palm-BD Country Malaysia Indonesia Yield Mg/ha 21 18 Biofuel L/ha 5920 5115 Energy GJ/ha 195 168

Sugarcane-E
Sugarcane-E Maize-E Maize-E Rapeseed-BD Rapeseed-BD Soybean-BD
27 Aug 2007 Soybean-BD

Brazil
India US China China Canada US

74
61 9 5 2 2 3

5865
4844 3751 1995 726 641 552 491

124
102 79 41 24 21 18 1610

meeting Brazil 8th CGIAR SC2.4

Biofuel crops are highly concentrated in a few countries
 Argentina + Brasil + USA account for:
 48% of global maize production; 65% of maize exports  81% of global soybean production

 Indonesia + Malaysia account for 81% global oil palm production  Brasil produces 33% of global sugarcane  USA accounts for 56% of global humanitarian food aid
27 Aug 2007 8th CGIAR SC meeting 11

Promise of the Biofuel Boom
• Most exciting opportunity for agriculture since WWII • Economic development and jobs in rural communities in developed and developing countries • Substantial increases in prices for agricultural commodities • Higher land value and tax income • Less need for direct crop subsidies
27 Aug 2007 8th CGIAR SC meeting 12

Biofuel Pitfalls
• • •

Energy inefficient biofuels that require more energy inputs than energy output; reduces capacity for replacement of fossil fuels Excessive inflation in consumer food prices due to insufficient grain and oilseed crops for food, feed, fiber, and biofuel Environmental degradation and unsustainable farming practices due to expansion of biofuel crop area and motivation to produce highest possible yields • Net increases in greenhouse gas emissions rather than a decrease • Expansion of cropping to marginal land resulting in a significant increase in erosion and habitat degradation • Expansion of cropping into rain forests, wetlands, grassland savannahs in Brazil, Indonesia, and other tropical countries • Reduction in water quality from increased fertilizer rates without development of new technologies to avoid nutrient losses in high-yield systems
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27 Aug 2007

Energy Efficiency and Environmental Impact of Biofuels—Maize Ethanol ex. • There are many life-cycle analysis (LCA) studies of maize-ethanol systems
– Includes crop production, ethanol conversion, co-product processing and utilization

• Results vary depending on selection of system boundaries, energy content of crop inputs, crop yields and input levels, energy use in ethanol plant
27 Aug 2007 8th CGIAR SC meeting 14

Energy efficiency and greenhouse gas mitigation estimates from different studies

From Farrell et al., Science 2006
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Backward-looking vs forward-looking life-cycle analyses • Previous studies use aggregate data from the recent past • But efficiencies of maize production and ethanol conversion are continually improving • More relevant question: what is the energy efficiency and greenhouse gas mitigation potential of current and future maize-ethanol systems?
27 Aug 2007 8th CGIAR SC meeting 16

Biofuel Energy Systems Simulator (BESS)
• Recently released life-cycle assessment software available at: www.bess.unl.edu • Uses updated input values for maize yields and production practices, energy requirements for ethanol fermentationdistillation, and co-product processing and utilization • Estimates much higher net energy efficiency and greenhouse gas mitigation potential than previous estimates
27 Aug 2007 8th CGIAR SC meeting 17

BESS* Model for Emissions Trading and Biofuel C-cost certification
BESS Life-Cycle Model includes 4 components: • Crop production • Ethanol biorefinery • Cattle feedlot for feeding distiller’s grains • Anaerobic digestion unit (optional, closed-loop facility) Three types of life-cycle analysis: • Energy analysis—life-cycle net energy yield/efficiency • Emissions analysis—net carbon dioxide (CO2) and trace greenhouse gases (CH4, N2O), and global warming potentional (GWP) • Resource Requirements—crop production area, grain, water, fossil fuels (petroleum, nat. gas, and coal)
27 Aug 2007 *Available 8th CGIAR SC meeting at www.bess.unl.edu 18

Tradable GHG credit (E) = A - B - C - D
10

GHG emissions, Mt x100,000

8 6 4 2 0 -2

Conventional Gasoline Fossil Fuels used in Biofuel Production Tradable GHG Credit Fertilizer Co-Product N2O GHG Credit

A

B

C

D

E

C = energy savings from use of distillers grains co-product to replace corn grain and urea in cattle diets 27 Aug 2007 8th CGIAR SC meeting 19

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BESS life-cycle analysis: Net Energy Ratio
-----Corn Production System----Type of ethanol plant Coal, dry DG natural gas, dry DG natural gas, wet DG closed-loop facility
27 Aug 2007

USA average 1.39 1.47 1.80 2.36

NE average 1.33 1.41 1.71 2.20

Iowa average 1.52 1.62 2.03 2.78

Advanced Irrigated 1.42 1.51 1.85 2.45
25

8th CGIAR SC meeting

Based on a 378 ML/yr maize-ethanol plant

BESS LCA Analysis: GHG Emissions Reduction (%, Mt CO2eq*)
-----Corn Production System----Type of ethanol plant Coal, dry DG natural gas, dry DG natural gas, wet DG USA average
26%, 197,817 51%, 381,213 60%, 447,462

NE Iowa Advanced average average Irrigated
36%, 270,668 61%, 454,064 69%, 520,313 46%, 342,359 70%, 525,756 79%, 592,004 39%, 294,171 63%, 477,567 73%, 543,816

closed-loop facility
27 Aug 2007

67%, 504,269

77%, 577,120

87%, 648,812

80%, 600,623
26

8th CGIAR SC meeting

Based on a 378 ML/yr maize-ethanol plant

Energy efficiency and greenhouse gas mitigation estimates from different studies

Liska et al. Univ of Nebraska: Improved maize grain ethanol technology

From Farrell et al., Science 2006
27 Aug 2007 8th CGIAR SC meeting 27

Closed-Loop Integrated Corn-Ethanol Biorefinery: high energy efficiency and positive environmental impact
CH4 CO2 N2O

Corn Production
--Grain and stover yields in relation to climate and management --All inputs and outputs have energy and GHG equivalents --Soil C sequestration, soil quality, water quality NO3 leaching CO2 Grain

Ethanol Plant
--Ethanol output per in relation to grain and energy inputs, and total ethanol yield --Greenhouse emissions --Distillers grains and other byproducts Distillers grain Stillage Ethanol

Grain

N2O

CH4

CH4

Cattle Feedlot
Meat --Feed, energy and other inputs --Animal weight gain and feed efficiency --Manure and urine outputs --Greenhouse gas emissions

CO2

Methane Biodigestor
manure, urine --Manure, urine, stillage inputs --Methane biogas output --Biofertilizer output, fertilizer replacement value, land requirement

NO3 leaching Fertilizer offset in crop production

Biofertilizer Horticultural uses/organic ag?

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BESS LCA Analysis: GHG Emissions Reduction (%, Mt CO2eq*)
-----Corn Production System----Type of ethanol plant Coal, dry DG natural gas, dry DG natural gas, wet DG USA average
26%, 197,817 51%, 381,213 60%, 447,462

NE Iowa Advanced average average Irrigated
36%, 270,668 61%, 454,064 69%, 520,313 46%, 342,359 70%, 525,756 79%, 592,004 39%, 294,171 63%, 477,567 73%, 543,816

closed-loop facility
27 Aug 2007

67%, 504,269

77%, 577,120

87%, 648,812

80%, 600,623
29

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Based on a 378 ML/yr maize-ethanol plant

Bottom line: Energy Efficiency and GHG Mitigation
• Current state-of-the-art USA maize ethanol systems
– 30-70% net energy surplus and 25-70% GHG reduction compared to gasoline

• Sugarcane-ethanol even better
– Improvements in maize-ethanol will approach sugarcane efficiencies and GHG mitigation

• Palm oil biodiesel is also highly energy efficient, but GHG mitigation depends on whether forest clearing is accounted for • Soybean will become the dominant vegetable oil crop because it is too low-yielding to be competitive as a biofuel feedstock
27 Aug 2007 8th CGIAR SC meeting 30

FAS

Potential Ripple Effect: accelerated deforestation Amazon Deforestation Also a food, feed, due to abrupt increase in demand forFactor and biofuel crops
The Legal Amazon:
Deforestation Monitoring

Deforestation 2002/2003 Deforestation prior to 2002
Source: INPE/PRODES

Nearly 30 million hectares of tropical forest have been cleared since 1988
Vast majority converted into rangeland for commercial cattle production Deforestation is continuing8th CGIAR SC meeting2.0 million hectares per year at a rate of over 27 Aug 2007 31 New rangeland provides opportunity for future field-crop cultivation

Ripple effect of rising food prices or shortages: rural poor in developing countries will be motivated to expand subsistence crop production onto marginal soils not suited for annual food crops causing soil degradation and loss of environmental services.

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Cereal Imports to Sub-Sahara Africa
Imports (million metric tons)
10

8

Percent of global exports

8%

Wheat

Rice
6

24%

4

2

2%
Maize
1990 1995 2000 2005

0 1985

Year
27 Aug 2007 8th CGIAR SC meeting 33

Avoiding excessive food price inflation and ensuring environmental protection

• Assure adequate grain and oilseed supply to meet global demand for food, feed, fiber, and biofuel • Maintain soil quality • Improving water quality • Avoid a large expansion of crop area into marginal land or into natural ecosystems (forests, wetlands, grassland savannahs)
27 Aug 2007 8th CGIAR SC meeting 34

Recent projections before the biofuel revolution indicated little problem in meeting future food demand. Prediction of global demand, supply, and yield of the three major
cereals (maize, rice, and wheat) from 1995 to 2025 by the IFPRI—IMPACT model‡.
1995 2025 Annual rate of change (%) Modified 2025 prediction¶ Modified annual rate change (%)

Population (109) Demand (MMT) Production Area (Mha) Mean grain yield† (kg ha-1)
‡ † ¶

5.66 1657 506 3.27

7.90 2436 556 4.38

1.12 1.29 0.31 0.98

same 2558 491 5.21

1.12 1.46 -0.10 1.56

Rosegrant et al., 2002, International Food Policy Research Institute. Weighted average for the three major cereals.

BUT HOW DO THESE PROJECTIONS COMPARE WITH 27 Aug 2007 8th CGIAR SC meeting RECENT TRENDS?

35

Trends in Global Area Planted to Cereals is decreasing, 1966-2004
750

AREA (10 6 ha)

650 550 450 350 1965

global cereal area

slope = -2.1 Mha yr -1 1981-2004

maize + rice + wheat area

1975

1985

1995

2005

YEAR
27 Aug 2007 8th CGIAR SC meeting 36

Modified prediction based on updated trends in land use and utilization of maize for biofuel production. Prediction of global demand, supply, and yield of the three major cereals (maize, rice, and wheat) from 1995 to 2025 by the IFPRI—IMPACT model‡,
1995 2025 Annual rate of change (%) Modified 2025 prediction¶ Modified annual rate change (%)

Population (109) Demand (MMT) Production Area (Mha) Mean grain yield† (kg ha-1)
‡ ¶

5.66 1657 506 3.27

7.90 2436 556 4.38

1.12 1.29 0.31 0.98

same 2558 506 5.21

1.12 1.46 0 1.46

Rosegrant et al., 2002, International Food Policy Research Institute. While the IFPRI-IMPACT prediction accounts for grain demand for human food and livestock feed, it does not consider grain used for biofuel or bio-based industrial feedstock production; the modified prediction assumes that 5% of global grain supply in 2025 is used for production of biofuel and bio-based industrial feedstocks † Weighted average for the three major cereals.
27 Aug 2007 8th CGIAR SC meeting 37

Global Cereal Yield Trends, 1966-2004
GRAIN YIELD (kg ha-1)
5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1965 wheat b = 41x, R2 = 0.97 1975 1985 rice b = 54x, R2 = 0.98 maize b = 61x, R2 = 0.93

1995

2005

YEAR
27 Aug 2007 8th CGIAR SC meeting 38

Rate of gain for all cereals is linear, not exponential, which means that the relative rate of gain is decreasing: relative rates of gain in 1966.
Global rate of increase in yield of maize, rice, and wheat, 1966-2004.
Crop _Mean yield (kg ha-1)_ 1966 2004 Rate of gain¶ (kg ha-1 yr-1) Proportional rate of gain (%) 1966 2004

Maize Rice Wheat

2210 2076 1408

4907 4004 2907

61.0 54.4 41.2

2.76 2.62 2.93

1.24 1.36 1.42

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Rate of gain for all cereals is linear, not exponential, which means that the relative rate of gain is decreasing: relative rates of gain in 2004.
Global rate of increase in yield of maize, rice, and wheat, 1966-2004.
Crop _Mean yield (kg ha-1)_ 1966 2004 2210 2076 1408 4907 4004 2907 Rate of gain¶ (kg ha-1 yr-1) Proportional rate of gain (%) 1966 2004

Maize Rice Wheat

61.0 54.4 41.2

2.76 2.62 2.93

1.24 1.36 1.42

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A Critical Question: Will there be enough maize?
• USDA Secretary Mike Johanns (11/16/06):
– US farmers should be able to meet booming corn demand – We have companies telling us they are very close in their research to having more drought-resistant, more pestresistant, more disease-resistant corn hybrids – 4 to 7 million idled CRP acres are viable for corn production

• Robert Fraley, Chief Technology Office, Monsanto: National Renewable Energy Conf, St Louis, 10/12/06
– Average corn yields will double within the next 30 years (2.3% per year exponential growth rate versus actual current linear rate equal to 1.2% of current trend-line yield) – New biotech hybrids will achieve substantial yield increases under drought and require less N fertilizer

• Little published in refereed journals to support these claims; most crop physiologists/agronomists who work on corn yield potential disagree with this prognosis 27 Aug 2007 8th CGIAR SC meeting 41

USA Corn Yield Trends, 1966-20051
(embodies tremendous technological innovation)
12000
Soil testing, balanced NPK fertilization, conservation tillage Double-X to single-X hybrids Transgenic (Bt) insect resistance

GRAIN YIELD (kg ha-1)

10000

8000

Reduced N fertilizer & irrigation?

6000 y = 112.4 kg/ha-yr [1.79 bu/ac-yr] 2 R = 0.80

4000
Expansion of irrigated area, increased N fertilizer rates

Integrated pest management

2000 1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

YEAR
27 Aug 2007

From: Convergence of Energy and Agriculture, www.cast-science.org

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Nebraska contest-winning and average yield trends No increase in yield potential ceiling since the 1980s; average yields will soon approach this ceiling.

25
Irrigated contest winners

350 300

Maize yield (Mg ha )

20
Rainfed contest winners 208 kg/ha/yr Irrigated average 114 kg/ha/yr

15

250 200

10

150 100
Rainfed average 89 kg/ha/yr

5

50

0 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 meeting 1995 2000 2005 1990 27 Aug 2007 8th CGIAR SC

Year

From: Cassman et al., 2003

Corn yield (bu/acre)
43

-1

WILL THERE BE ENOUGH RICE, WHEAT, AND OTHER STAPLE FOOD CROPS FOR THE RURAL AND URBAN POOR?

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Yield trend of IRRI cultivars and lines developed since 1966
11

Yield of IR8 in 1966
10
IR65469-161-2-2-3-2-2 IR72 IR50 IR59682-132-1-1-2 IR64 IR60

Grain yield (t ha-1)

9
IR30 IR20 BPI76 IR26 IR8

IR36

8

Based on field studies at two locations in 1997 and 1998; mean values

7

y = -139 + 0.075x r 2 = 0.73

6 1960 1965

1970

1975

1980 1985

1990

1995

2000

Year of release
27 Aug 2007 8th CGIAR SC meeting

Peng et al. 2000; Crop Sci 40:307 45

Grain yield of IR8 grown in the late 60s and 1998
10 9 (De Datta et al. 1968) 8 7 (1998 dry season)

IR8

IR72
Peng et al. 1999; Crop Sci 39:1552

Grain yield (t ha-1)

IR8
6 5 (1998 dry season)

4
3 0 50 100 150
-1

200

N rate (kg ha)-1)
27 Aug 2007 8th CGIAR SC meeting 46

Conceptual framework for stagnant yield potential and red-queen breeding to maintain disease/insect resistance and adaptation to evolving agro-ecosystems (soils, [CO2], climate change)
Yield Potential
V5 V4

V3 V2

Yield Comparison in 2000

Yield

Yield Potential
V4

V5 V3

V1

Yield

V2 V1 1968

b = evolving fitness
2000

Year of Release

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Year of Release
27 Aug 2007 8th CGIAR SC meeting 47

From: Cassman et al., 2003, ARER

7000 (a) 6000 5000

China (93% irrigated) 1966-2001: 110 kg ha-1 yr-1 Indonesia (72% irrigated) 1966-1984: 109 kg ha-1 yr-1 1985-2002: -5 kg ha-1 yr-1 India (45% irrigated) 1966-2001: 48 kg ha-1 yr-1 Thailand (6% irrigated) 1966-2001: 20 kg ha-1 yr-1 Japan (99% irrigated) 1966-2001: 30 kg ha-1 yr-1

Rice Grain Yield (kg paddy ha-1)

4000 3000 2000 1000 7000 (b) 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 7000 (c) 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000

Hunan 1970-1983: 184 kg ha-1 yr-1 1984-2001: 41 kg ha-1 yr-1 Zhejiang 1970-1983: 154 kg ha-1 yr-1 1984-2001: 29 kg ha-1 yr-1 Jiangxi 1970-1996: 110 kg ha-1 yr-1 1997-2001: -4 kg ha-1 yr-1

Rice yields are stagnating in many of the world’s most productive intensive rice systems: China, Korea, Japan, Indonesia, and Punjab-India

Punjab 1970-1986: 133 kg ha-1 yr-1 1987-2001: 24 kg ha-1 yr-1 Central Java 1970-1990: 135 kg ha-1 yr-1 1991-2001: -10 kg ha-1 yr-1 Central Luzon 1970-1989: 79 kg ha-1 yr-1 1990-2001: -12 kg ha-1 yr-1

27 Aug 1970 1975 2007

1980

1985

1990

1995

Year

8th2000 CGIAR SC meeting

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Yield trends of wheat in the Yaqui Valley of Mexico and in the major wheat producing states in India.

Wheat Grain Yield (kg ha-1)

6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000

Yaqui Valley, Mexico 1951-2002 Punjab, India 1968-2000: 78 kg ha-1 yr-1 Haryana, India 1968-2000: 79 kg ha-1 yr-1 Uttar Pradesh, India 1968-2000: 53 kg ha-1 yr-1 Madhya Pradesh, India 1968-2000: 38 kg ha-1 yr-1 M.P. Regr

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

27 Aug 2007

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Global Irrigated Area and as a % of Total Cultivated Land Area 1966-2004: little scope for further increase
IRRIGATED AREA (Mha)
300 250 200 150 100 1965 1975
Irrigated Area % of total cultivated area
In 2002, irrigated systems occupied 18% of cultivated land area but produced 40% of human food supply

20.0 17.5 15.0 12.5 10.0

1985 YEAR

1995

2005

27 Aug 2007

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Need for Ecological Intensification
 Little uncultivated land suitable for
expansion of intensive cereal production Global rate of increase in cereal yields is falling below rate of increase in demand In general, current crop and soil management practices have:  negative impact on water quality, greenhouse gas






emissions, and biodiversity In some systems, they are also causing a reduction in soil quality (loss of organic matter, nutrient depletion, salinization, acidification)
8th CGIAR SC meeting 51

27 Aug 2007

What is Ecological Intensification?
 Development of high-yield crop production 
systems that protect soil and environmental quality and conserve natural resources Characteristics of EI systems:
 Yields that reach 85-90% of genetic yield potential  70-80% N fertilizer uptake efficiency  Improve soil quality (nutrient stocks, SOM)  Integrated pest management (IPM)  Contribute to net reduction in greenhouse gases  Have a large net positive energy balance  In irrigated systems: 90-95% water use efficiency
27 Aug 2007 8th CGIAR SC meeting 52

The Promise of Cellulosic Ethanol
• Mostly avoids direct food vs fuel
competition
– Indirect competition for land

• Large amount of cellulosic biomass feedstock could support substantial expansion of ethanol production capacity • May have greater positive environmental impact than corn grain ethanol: larger reduction in GHG emissions, better protects soil quality, reduced fertilizer inputs
– Some concern about impact on biodiversity
27 Aug 2007 8th CGIAR SC meeting 53

Challenges to successful development of the cellulosic ethanol industry
• Harvest, handling, storage of huge amounts of biomass • More cost-effective pretreatment and enzyme technologies
– Can they utilize multiple feedstock sources?

• Improved options for use of co-products
– Feedstock for industrial chemicals?

• Large-scale deployment is 7-10 years off
– Meantime, biofuel production capacity builds out until the breakeven price of maize, sugarcane, and oil palm is reached for biofuels (within 5-7 years?)
27 Aug 2007 8th CGIAR SC meeting 54

Challenges for Global Food Security, Poverty Reduction, and the CGIAR in a Biofuel World
• Accelerating crop yields to avoid excessive rise in food cost and the need for a large expansion of crop area into marginal soils and native ecosystems • Achieving yields near the yield potential ceiling without negative impacts on environmental quality and GHG emissions through an ecological intensification approach • Raising the yield potential of the major food crops and continuing to improve stress tolerance—but only slow, incremental increases likely despite the optimism of executives from major seed companies • The magnitude of this scientific challenge is grossly underestimated. The CGIAR must play a proactive role in meeting it!
27 Aug 2007 8th CGIAR SC meeting 55


				
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