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Strategic Development of Bioenergy in the Western States

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					Strategic Development of Bioenergy in the Western States
Task 2: Biofuel Conversion Technology
October 10, 2007 Anneliese Schmidt & Edward Gray, Antares Group Inc.

Task Overview
• Objective
– Develop cost and performance relationships for selected biofuel conversion technologies for supply curve input

• Methodology
– Select technologies (mid term: 2015)
– Model cost and performance based on published data – Provide yields and non-feedstock production cost for each technology

Conversion Technologies
Current Representative Technologies
Grain to Ethanol - Dry Mill
Grain to Ethanol - Wet Mill Fatty Acid to Methyl Ester

Additional Technologies Projected to be Available by 2015*
Lignocellulosics to Ethanol - Fermentation/Hydrolysis Lignocellulosics to Middle Distillates - Fischer Tropsch

Lignocellulosics to Gasoline - Upgrading/Pyrolysis
Fatty Acids to Hydrocarbon - Hydrotreatment

* Representative of the technologies that could be commercially available by 2015 – not an endorsement of any particular conversion process.

Additional Conversion Technologies
Other Advanced Technologies Considered
Lignocellulosics to Middle Alcohols – Thermochemical Conversion Lignocellulosics to Ethanol – Thermochemical/Fermentation

These technologies not included in supply curve
– Insufficient cost & performance data publicly available – Not enough evidence to demonstrate ready for commercialization by 2015

Overview of Models
• Advanced technology models based on projected cost and performance estimates with target yields from published data • Model inputs: annual feedstock input and feedstock type

• Models results: biofuel yield, capital and O&M costs, and byproduct yield and value
– Capital costs scaled by facility size

– Yield dependent on feedstock composition

Example Model – FT
Summary Page - Costs & Yield Data, Fischer Tropsch Conversion to Middle Distillates
Inputs Feedstock Type Corn Stover Mid Term Applicable Feedstocks Applicable Size Range (dry tons/yr) (1) Feedstock Input (dry ton/yr) Feedstock Input (MMBtu/yr), LHV Yield FT Distillates (MGY) (2) Conversion Efficiency (LHV) (3) Consumables and By-Products Yield FT Naptha (MGY) (4) Net Electricity Production (kWh/yr) (5) Water Consumption (1000 gal/yr) FT Distillate Production Costs Fixed O&M ($/yr) (6) Variable O&M ($/yr) Co-product credit ($/yr) (7) Annual Operating Cost ($/yr) Total Capital Investment ($) (8) Economic Lifetime (Years) Weighted Cost of Capital Annual Payment ($/yr) Non-Feedstock Production Cost ($/gal) woody & agricultural > 185,000 1,000,000 15,200,000 36.8 42% 15.8 699,070,027 47,865 $ $ $ $ $ 28,926,148 9,978,116 (63,584,010) (24,679,746) Capital and O&M 936,132,094 20 12% $125,328,223 2.74 Production cost for FT Distillates

Input (choice is limited)

Basis for model - BCL gasifier w/ SMR, with CC power generation

Yield

$

Summary of Key Results
Technology Grain Ethanol - Dry Mill Grain Ethanol - Wet Mill FAME Biodiesel LCE Fermentation/Hydrolysis (Dilute Acid) LCMD - Fischer Tropsch LCG - Upgrading/Pyrolysis FAHC - Hydrotreatment (stand alone) Feedstock Corn Corn Virgin Oil Hardwood (poplar) Hardwood (poplar) Hardwood (poplar) Virgin Oil Feedstock Input (ton/yr) 1,000,000 1,000,000 200,000 700,000 700,000 700,000 500,000 Yield (gal/ton) 100 89 258 86 41 17 255 Capital Cost ($/gal) $1.67 $2.21 $0.59 $3.39 $23.54 $8.59 $1.39 O&M Cost ($/gal/yr) $0.50 $0.59 $0.26 $0.29 $1.01 $2.62 $0.17 By-Product Credit ($/gal/yr) ($0.34) ($0.52) ($0.04) ($0.12) ($1.73) ($1.16) ($0.06)

FAME = Fatty Acid Methyl Ester

LCE = LignoCellulosic Ethanol

LCMD = LignoCellulosics to Middle Distillates
FAHC = Fatty Acid to HydroCarbon

LCG = LignoCellulosics to Gasoline

Comparison of Selected Technologies
Te chnology Grain Ethanol - Dry Mill Fe e ds tock Corn Corn Hardw ood Hardw ood Hardw ood Soybean Oil Soybean Oil Fe e ds tock Input (ton/yr) 1,000,000 1,000,000 700,000 700,000 700,000 200,000 500,000 Fe e ds tock Cos t $119/ton $119/ton $50/dry ton $50/dry ton $50/dry ton $0.35/lb $0.35/lb Production (M GY) 100 89 86
107 M GY py oil 12 M GY gasoline

Production Cos t ($/gal) $1.55 $1.59 $1.21 $5.57 $3.66 $2.98 $3.00

Gasoline Substitutes

Grain Ethanol - Wet Mill LCE Fermentation/Hydrolysis (Dilute Acid) LCG - Upgrading/Pyrolysis

Diesel Substitutes

LCMD - Fischer Tropsch FAME Biodiesel FAHC - Hydrotreatment (stand alone)

28 52 128

Notes: Feedstock costs are representative of 2015 costs; Biofuel production costs do not include cost of transportation to terminal or end-user

Projected 2015 Wholesale Price Gasoline (EIA): $1.51/gal

Projected 2015 Wholesale Price #2 Diesel (EIA): $1.60/gal

Emissions – Environmental Benefits
• Water Use, GHG, and Criteria Pollutants:
– – – – – Feedstock Production/Growth (KSU) Feedstock Transportation Conversion Process Biofuel Transportation End use in vehicle

• Used data from published Life Cycle Analyses when available • Similar emissions tracked for fossil fuels production and use for comparison

Well to Wheels GHG Emissions - Example

Source: Wu, M., M. Wang, and H. Huo. Fuel-Cycle Assessment of Selected Bioethanol Production Pathways in the United States. ANL Energy Systems Division no. ANL/ESD/06-7. November 7 2006.

Emissions Data LCE Fermentation/Hydrolysis
Feedstock Production

0.8%

Biomass Fossil Fuel

Feedstock is forest thinnings - CO2 from collection only

Feedstock Transport

1.3%

Conversion Process

Net 9,989

59.2%

Fuel Transport

0.5%

Note: these are DRAFT results shown for example only
38.2%

End Use

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000 12,000

CO2 Emissions (g/gal ethanol)


				
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