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Evaluation of agricultural gross production value, gross production value per capita and population Conflict-affected & non-conflict-affected Sub-Saharan African countries (DRAFT) Elina Lauriala TCAS Contents 1. 1. Conflict countries - Angola ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Conflict countries - Burundi......................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Conflict countries – Central African Republic............................................................................................................................................................. 6 Conflict countries – DR Congo.................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Conflict countries – Congo .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Conflict countries – Cote d’Ivoire.............................................................................................................................................................................. 10 Conflict countries - Eritrea......................................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Conflict countries - Ethiopia ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 13 Conflict countries – Guinea........................................................................................................................................................................................ 14 Post-conflict countries – Guinea-Bissau.................................................................................................................................................................... 15 Conflict countries – Liberia........................................................................................................................................................................................ 16 Post-conflict countries – Mozambiq........................................................................................................................................................................... 17 Post-conflict countries – Namibia.............................................................................................................................................................................. 18 Conflict countries – Rwanda ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 19 Conflict countries – Sierra Leone............................................................................................................................................................................... 21 Conflict countries – Uganda....................................................................................................................................................................................... 22 Conflict countries – Zimbabwe .................................................................................................................................................................................. 23 General findings concerning conflict-affected countries: .......................................................................................................................................... 24 Non-conflict countries – Benin .................................................................................................................................................................................. 25 Non-conflict countries –Botswana ............................................................................................................................................................................. 26 Non-conflict countries –Burkina Faso ....................................................................................................................................................................... 27 Non-conflict countries –Cape Verde.......................................................................................................................................................................... 28 Non-conflict countries – Chad ................................................................................................................................................................................... 29 Non-conflict countries – Comoros ............................................................................................................................................................................. 30 2 Non-conflict countries – Gabon ................................................................................................................................................................................. 31 Non-conflict countries – Gambia ............................................................................................................................................................................... 32 Non-conflict countries –Ghana .................................................................................................................................................................................. 33 Non-conflict countries – Kenya ................................................................................................................................................................................. 34 Non-conflict countries - Lesotho................................................................................................................................................................................ 35 Non-conflict countries - Madagascar ......................................................................................................................................................................... 36 Non-conflict countries - Malawi ................................................................................................................................................................................ 37 Non-conflict countries - Mali..................................................................................................................................................................................... 38 Non-conflict countries - Mauritania........................................................................................................................................................................... 39 Non-conflict countries - Mauritius............................................................................................................................................................................. 40 Non-conflict countries – Niger................................................................................................................................................................................... 41 Non-conflict countries – Nigeria................................................................................................................................................................................ 42 Non-conflict countries – Sao Tome and Principe ...................................................................................................................................................... 43 Non-conflict countries – Senegal ............................................................................................................................................................................... 44 Non-conflict countries – South Africa ....................................................................................................................................................................... 45 Non-conflict countries – Swaziland ........................................................................................................................................................................... 46 Non-conflict countries – Tanzania ............................................................................................................................................................................. 47 Non-conflict countries – Togo ................................................................................................................................................................................... 48 Non-conflict countries – Zambia................................................................................................................................................................................ 49 General findings concerning non- conflict-affected countries:.................................................................................................................................. 50 Findings Annex 3 1. Conflict countries - Angola GRS Production evoluation in Angola, 1961-2004 Agricultural grs production per capita in Angola, 1961-2003 1200000 160 140 1000000 120 800000 100 value per capita Value in 1000$ 600000 80 60 400000 40 200000 20 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population in Angola 1961-2003 16000 14000 12000 Findings *production declined after independence 1975 (conflict), stagnated for 10000 several years and started to grow again in 1991 (peace treaty) Millions 8000 *before 1975 the production per capita was in a higher level, but dropped fast after that 6000 *population growth has been very rapid, so even the production has 4000 increased, the population growth has been “eaten” the effect * Average annual growth of: 2000 population (1961-2004) 2,57 change 178 percent 0 value of total production (1961-2004) 0.64 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of value of total production (1999-2004) 4.66 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 97 $ 4 Conflict countries - Burundi Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Burundi, 1961-2004 800000 Agricultural grs production per capita in Burundi, 1961-2003 160 700000 140 600000 120 500000 Value in 1000$ 100 value per capita 400000 80 300000 60 200000 40 100000 20 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year 5 Population grow th in Burundi 1961-2003 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Ye a r Conflict countries – Central African Republic Findings *Before 1993 (conflict) the trendline of gross production was rising. Growht was especially fast 1984-1992. *After the drop in 1993 (continued conflict) the production has been stagnating. * the trend in grs production per capita has been decreasing. There is a drop in 1994 and stagnation after that * population growth has been rapid and production haven’t been able to keep up with it * Average annual growth of: population (1961-2004) 2,09 change 128 percent value of total production (1961-2004) 1.17 value of total production (1999-2004) 1.51 * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 128 $ 6 Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Central African Republic, 1961-2004 Agricultural grs production per capita in Central African Republic, 1961-2003 700000 180 600000 160 500000 140 120 Value in 1000$ 400000 value per capita 100 300000 80 60 200000 40 100000 20 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population grow th in Central African Republic 1961-2003 4500 4000 Findings: 3500 *production has been growing steadily for whole period. 3000 * Production per capita has been stagnating. 2500 *Population growth has been eaten the production growth. 2000 *conflict has been continuing since the independence 1960, so it is not 1500 possible to see clear declines * Average annual growth of: 1000 population (1961-2004) 2,30 change 148 percent 500 value of total production (1961-2004) 2.54 0 value of total production (1999-2004) 2.47 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 148 $ of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Ye a r 7 Conflict countries – DR Congo Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in DR Congo, 1961-2004 Agricultural grs production per capita in DR Congo, 1961-2003 4000000 120 3500000 100 3000000 2500000 80 Value in 1000$ value per capita 2000000 60 1500000 40 1000000 20 500000 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in DR Congo 1961-2003 60000 Findings: *production line was increasing until the drop in 1994 (Rwanda crisis??). 50000 * in one year the production dropped the amount which took eight years to develop 40000 * after the drop production has been stagnating and haven't been able to reach the same level Millions 30000 * trend in grs production per capita has been slightly decreasing until the big drop in 1994. After that the decline has been accelerating. 20000 * Average annual growth of: population (1961-2004) 2,98 change 233 percent 10000 value of total production (1961-2004) 1.46 value of total production (1999-2004) -0.82 0 * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 88 $ Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year 8 Conflict countries – Congo Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Republic of Congo, 1961-2004 250000 Agricultural grs production per capita in Republic of Congo, 1961-2003 120 200000 100 150000 Value in 1000$ 80 value per capita 60 100000 40 50000 20 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Republic of Congo 1961-2003 4000 3500 3000 Findings: * Production has been increasing the whole period. Not even the 2500 start of a civil war has had a major effect. Millions 2000 * grs production per capita has been steadily decreasing. * the change in amount of population has been one of the 1500 highest in SSA 1000 * Average annual growth of: population (1961-2004) 3.19 change 262 percent 500 value of total production (1961-2004) 1.61 0 value of total production (1999-2004) -1.94 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 74 $ 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year 9 Conflict countries – Cote d’Ivoire Agricultural grs production per capita in Cote d'Ivoire, 1961-2003 300 Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Cote d'Ivoire, 1961-2004 4500000 250 4000000 3500000 200 value per capita 3000000 Value in 1000$ 150 2500000 2000000 100 1500000 1000000 50 500000 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Findings: Population growth in Cote d'Ivoire 1961-2003 * production grew very well until the start of a conflict in 1999. 18000 * Growth has been very good between 1961-2004 (3.67) and even 16000 better between 1961-1998 (3.96) before the conflict. * grs production per capita reach its peak 1975 and started to fall after 14000 that. After the bottom of 1994, gdp increased until the the following 12000 year of conflict in 2000. 10000 * population growth started to accelerate after the mid 70's and that Millions 8000 was also the time when grs production per capita started to decline 6000 * Average annual growth of: population (1961-2004) 3.75 change 323 percent 4000 value of total production (1961-2004) 3.67 2000 value of total production (1999-2004) -2.66 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 225 $ of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year 10 Conflict countries - Eritrea Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Ethiopia PDR and Eritrea, 1961-2004 Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Eritrea, 1993-2004 4000000 200000 3500000 180000 160000 3000000 140000 2500000 Value in 1000$ 120000 Value in 1000$ Eritrea 2000000 Ethiopia PDR 100000 1500000 80000 60000 1000000 40000 500000 20000 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Agricultural grs production per capita in Eritrea, 1961-2003 Population growth in Eritrea 1961-2003 60 4500 4000 50 3500 40 3000 value per capita 2500 Millions 30 2000 20 1500 1000 10 500 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year 11 Findings: * The value of the production almost doubeled in five years (93 to 98) * After the start of a conflict production dropped almost as much in four years (98 to 2002) * grs production per capita - line looks almost the same as production line except the drop is steeper * average population growth 1993-2003 has been 2.90 and average annual growth 0.18 with very big fluctuations * population has grown 31% in ten years * Average annual growth of: population (1993-2003) 2.90 change 31 percent value of total production (1993-2004) 0.18 value of total production (1999-2004) -5.09 * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 39 $ 12 Conflict countries - Ethiopia Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Ethiopia PDR and Ethiopia, 1961-2004 5000000 Agricultural grs production per capita in Ethiopia, 1993-2003 4500000 120 4000000 3500000 100 3000000 Value in 1000$ 80 value per capita Ethiopia 2500000 Ethiopia PDR Country 60 Ethiopia 2000000 40 1500000 1000000 20 500000 0 Sum of 1961 Sum of 1962 Sum of 1963 Sum of 1964 Sum of 1965 Sum of 1966 Sum of 1967 Sum of 1968 Sum of 1969 Sum of 1970 Sum of 1971 Sum of 1972 Sum of 1973 Sum of 1974 Sum of 1975 Sum of 1976 Sum of 1977 Sum of 1978 Sum of 1979 Sum of 1980 Sum of 1981 Sum of 1982 Sum of 1983 Sum of 1984 Sum of 1985 Sum of 1986 Sum of 1987 Sum of 1988 Sum of 1989 Sum of 1990 Sum of 1991 Sum of 1992 Sum of 1993 Sum of 1994 Sum of 1995 Sum of 1996 Sum of 1997 Sum of 1998 Sum of 1999 Sum of 2000 Sum of 2001 Sum of 2002 Sum of 2003 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Data Population growth in Ethiopia 1961-2003 80000 Findings: 70000 * the trend in production has been increasing. The biggest drops have been between 1983-85 (drought) and 1991-93 (??). 60000 * grs production per capita has been declining most in the period of 1980- 50000 1994, after that it started to rise again. * after the separation (1993-2004) the average annual production growth Millions 40000 has been 3.68 30000 * Average annual growth of: population (1993-2003) 2.55 change 186 percent 20000 value of total production (1993-2004) 1.30 10000 value of total production (1999-2004) 2.40 * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 65 $ 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year 13 Conflict countries – Guinea Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Guinea, 1961-2004 Agricultural grs production per capita in Guinea, 1961-2003 1200000 160 140 1000000 120 800000 100 Value in 1000$ value per capita 600000 80 60 400000 40 200000 20 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year P o pu l a t i on gr o wt h i n Gu i n e a 19 6 1- 2 0 0 3 9000 8000 Findings: 7000 * After the stagnation of 1961-1987 production started to increase rapidly 1988 6000 * Conflict (starting 1999) haven't dropped the production 5000 * grs production dropped between 1976 and 1988 when it 4000 started to grow again. 3000 * Average annual growth of: population (1993-2003) 2.47 change 165 percent 2000 value of total production (1993-2004) 1.95 1000 value of total production (1999-2004) 1.86 0 * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 118 $ Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Y ear 14 Post-conflict countries – Guinea-Bissau Agricultural grs production per capita in Guinea-Bissau, 1961-2003 Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Guinea-Bissau, 1961-2004 160 180000 160000 140 140000 120 120000 100 value per capita Value in 1000$ 100000 80 80000 60 60000 40 40000 20000 20 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Guinea-Bissau 1961-2003 1600 1400 Findings: 1200 * Production started to increase in the beginning of the 1000 70's and it has almost tripeled in 30 years. * Since 1965 the production per capita has stagnated in Millions 800 between 100-120 dollars. 600 * Average annual growth of: population (1961-2004) 2.63, change 169 percent 400 value of total production (1961-2004) 2.38 200 value of total production (1999-2004) 0.98 0 * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 112 $ Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year 15 Conflict countries – Liberia Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Liberia, 1961-2004 Agricultural grs production per capita in Liberia, 1961-2003 140 300000 120 250000 100 200000 value per capita Value in 1000$ 80 150000 60 100000 40 50000 20 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Liberia 1961-2003 Findings: 4000 * When the conflict started 1989 the production decreased drastically 43% in two years * After the peace treaty 1995 Liberia was able to reach the same level of production in 3500 five years 3000 * After 1995 the production has been stagnating (continuing conflict) * Grs production per capita rise slightly in the 60's and started to go down in the 70's. 2500 The biggest drop happened in 1989 (conflict). Between 1989-1995 the grs production Millions 2000 declined 46 percent, between 1995-1997 Liberia was able to increase the grs per capita by 27 percent. After that it has been stagnated and started to go down. 1500 * The effect of a conflict can be seen in the population curve. It is not going straight up 1000 like usually in SSA countries. * Average annual growth of: 500 population (1993-2003) 2.36 change 211 percent 0 value of total production (1993-2004) 1.05 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of 1961 1963 of of of of of of of of of 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 of of of of of of of of of 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 of of 2001 2003 value of total production (1999-2004) -0.05 Year * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 99 $ 16 Post-conflict countries – Mozambiq Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Mozambiq, 1961-2004 1400000 Agricultural grs production per capita in Mozambique , 1961-2003 120 1200000 100 1000000 80 Value in 1000$ 800000 value per capita 60 600000 400000 40 200000 20 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Mozambique 1961-2003 20000 18000 Findings: 16000 * Production grew until 1973 and sunk with some exceptions until 1992 (peace treaty) 14000 After that the growth has been rapid except the year of 2000 (floods). 12000 * Grs production per capita grew until 1973 (??), when it started to sunk and Millions 10000 reach its bottom 1992 (peace treaty). 8000 Growth continued until the major floods in 2000, but it haven't been able to 6000 reach the level of the 60's. 4000 * Population has grown steadily except the stagnation between 1985-1990 2000 * Average annual growth of: 0 population (1993-2003) 2.11 change 143 percent Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of value of total production (1993-2004) 0.66 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year value of total production (1999-2004) -1.12 * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 75 $ 17 Post-conflict countries – Namibia Agricultural grs production per capita in Namibia , 1961-2003 Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Namibia, 1961-2004 450 400000 400 350000 350 300000 300 250000 value per capita Value in 1000$ 250 200000 200 150000 150 100000 100 50000 50 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Findings Population growth in Namibia 1961-2003 * There has been three big drops in production 1975, 1983 and 1997. 2500 Between and after these drops production has grown, but never reached the level of the peak in 1972-1974. Because of the major drops, the average annual production growth 2000 rate is only 0.32 * The trend in grs production per capita is decreasing. It is possible to 1500 see three big drops 1975, 1983 and 1997. Millions The difference with the production line is that after the drop the line 1000 doesn't arise, but stagnates. Today's level is less than half of the level in the 60's and mid-70's 500 * Average annual growth of: population (1993-2003) 2.84 change 210 percent value of total production (1993-2004) 0.32 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum value of total production (1999-2004) -1.55 of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 264 $ Year 18 Source: FAO Agrometeorology series. Number 9. Gommes, R & Petrassi, F, 1994 19 Conflict countries – Rwanda Agricultural grs production per capita in Rwanda , 1961-2003 250 Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Rwanda, 1961-2004 1600000 200 1400000 1200000 150 value per capita 1000000 Value in 1000$ 800000 100 600000 400000 50 200000 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Rwanda 1961-2003 Findings: * Production grew until 1992 (civil war 1990, genocide 1994) when it dropped 9000 sharply for two years 8000 Growth was steady in the 60's and 70's, but in the 80's the value of production 7000 fluctuated 6000 Rwanda has been able to reach the level of the 90's in eight years * Except the drops in the 60's, the grs production per capita did not change 5000 dramaticlly in 70's and 80's Millions 4000 The major drop happened after the start of a civil war 1992-1994. Grs 3000 production per capita have not reached the same level as before the conflict. 2000 * The effect of a civil war and genocide is clearly seen in population curve * Average annual growth of: 1000 population (1993-2003) 2.27 change 184 percent 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum value of total production (1993-2004) 2.21 of of 1961 1963 of of of of of of of of of 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 of of of of of of of of of 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 of of 2001 2003 value of total production (1999-2004) -3.63 Year * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 159 $ 20 Conflict countries – Sierra Leone Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Sierra Leone, 1961-2004 Agricultural grs production pe r capita in Sie rra Leone, 1961-2003 400000 120 350000 100 300000 80 250000 Value in 1000$ value per capita 200000 60 150000 40 100000 20 50000 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Sierra Leone 1961-2003 Findings: 6000 * Production grew steadily without major fluctuations until 1991 (civil war) 5000 The biggest drop happened between 1997 and 2000. Production haven't been able to reach the level before the war. 4000 * Grs production per capita have been slightly decreased until the big drop in 1997. Millions 3000 The level after the drop is the lowist ever in 43 years. * Average annual growth of: 2000 population (1993-2003) 1.80 change 118 percent value of total production (1993-2004) 0.90 1000 value of total production (1999-2004) 2.47 0 * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 83 $ Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year 21 Conflict countries – Uganda Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Uganda, 1961-2004 Agricultural grs production per capita in Uganda, 1961-2003 6000000 400 350 5000000 300 4000000 250 Value in 1000$ value per capita 3000000 200 150 2000000 100 1000000 50 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Uganda 1961-2003 Findings: 30000 * Production grew rapidly between 1965-1970, in the 70's (Idi Amin years 1971-79) the production kept the high level until the drop in 25000 1978 (conflict). There is not any clear sign of recent conflict in north Uganda in the 20000 production curve (1990->) After the conflict the production has been growing steadily * Grs production per capita did very well until the drop in 1978, Millions 15000 stagnation since 10000 * Average annual growth of: population 3.14 (1961-2004) change 268 5000 value of total production 1.93 (1961-2004) value of total production 10.72 (1999-2004) 0 * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 236 $ Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year 22 Conflict countries – Zimbabwe Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Zimbabwe, 1961-2004 Agricultural grs production per capita in Zimbabwe, 1961-2003 2000000 250 1800000 1600000 200 1400000 1200000 150 Value in 1000$ value per capita 1000000 800000 100 600000 400000 50 200000 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Zimbabwe 1961-2003 14000 12000 Findings: 10000 * The trend in production is increasing with high flucutations. The fluctuations has increased after the beginning of the 80's (independence & 8000 unstability 1980->) Millions The start of a landreform 2000 is clearly seen in the curve. 6000 * The grs production trend is decreasing with high fluctuations. 4000 The grs production curve has big drops and some, but not all of them, are right after the conflict situation. 2000 For example the last big drop is after the start of a violent landreform. 0 *Average annual growth: Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of population is 3.18 (1961-2004) change 236 percent 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year value of total production 2.03 (1961-2004) value of total production -14.79 (1961-2004) 23 General findings concerning conflict-affected countries: ● the effects of a conflict can be seen in production & production / capita curves ● population growth exceeds the production growth, so the production per capita decreases ● most of the countries have their production / capita level lower than in the 60’s -> only three out of 17 countries has the pr. / capita in a same or higher level than in the 60’s ● in some cases agricultural production recovers suprisingly fast after the conflict situation and in other cases production stagnates and don’t reach the previous level 24 Non-conflict countries – Benin GRS Production evaluation in Benin, 1961-2004 Agricultural grs production per capita in Benin, 1961-2003 1800000 300 1600000 250 1400000 1200000 200 Value in 1000$ value per capita 1000000 150 800000 600000 100 400000 50 200000 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Benin 1961-2003 8000 7000 6000 5000 Findings: * Production started to increase rapidly in the beginning of the 80's Millions 4000 * Production / capita started to increase also in the beginning of the 3000 80's, but not as sharply as production 2000 * Average annual growth of: population 2.74 (1961-2004) 1000 value of total production 4.29 (1961-2004) 0 value of total production 6.92 (1999-2004) Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year 25 Non-conflict countries –Botswana GRS Production evoluation in Botswana, 1961-2004 Agricultural grs production per capita in Botswana, 1961-2003 200000 250 180000 160000 200 140000 120000 150 value per capita Value in 1000$ 100000 80000 100 60000 40000 50 20000 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Botswana 1961-2003 2000 1800 1600 1400 Findings: 1200 * Production increased slowly with fluctuations until Millions 1000 1995. After that it has declined and stagnated. 800 * Production per capita has decreased to the half of the 600 level it had in the 60's 400 * Average annual growth of: 200 population 3.09 (1961-2004) 0 value of total production 0.82 (1961-2004) growth of Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of value of total production 1.98 (1999-2004) reasonst: 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year exports? Hiv-epidemic? 26 Non-conflict countries –Burkina Faso GRS Production evoluation in Burkina Faso, 1961-2004 Agricultural grs production per capita in Burkina Faso, 1961-2003 1800000 140 1600000 120 1400000 100 1200000 Value in 1000$ value per capita 1000000 80 800000 60 600000 40 400000 20 200000 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Burkina Faso 1961-2003 14000 12000 Findings: 10000 * Production started to increase rapidly in 1984 after long period of stagnation. 8000 There was a drop in 2000, but country recovered immediately. Millions 6000 * Production per capita increased fast in the middle of the 80's. It has kept increasing but slower and with more fluctuations. 4000 * Population growth has accelerated since the middle of the 80's. * Average annual growth of: 2000 population 2.56 (1961-2004) change 186 percent. 0 value of total production 3.78 (1961-2004) Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of value of total production 7.14 (1999-2004) 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year 27 Non-conflict countries –Cape Verde Agricultural grs production per capita in Cape Verde, 1961-2003 Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Cape Verde, 1961-2004 80 35000 70 30000 60 25000 50 value per capita Value in 1000$ 20000 40 15000 30 10000 20 5000 10 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Cape Verde 1961-2003 500 450 400 350 Findings: 300 * Production started to increase in the beginning of the 80's. Millions 250 Trend is still increasing with high fluctuations. 200 * Production per capita follows similar pattern as total 150 production, except there has been less growth in the 90's 100 * Average annual growth of: 50 population (1961-2004) 1.79 value of total production (1961-2004) 2.74 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum value of total production (1999-2004) -1.38 of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year 28 Non-conflict countries – Chad Agricultural grs production per capita in Chad, 1961-2003 Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Chad, 1961-2004 180 1200000 160 1000000 140 120 800000 value per capita Value in 1000$ 100 600000 80 400000 60 40 200000 20 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Chad 1961-2003 10000 9000 8000 Findings: 7000 * Production started to increase 1984. The biggest drops have 6000 been 1993 (?) and 2000 (drought). * Production per capita trend was decreasing until the middle Millions 5000 of the 80's. After that it has been slightly increasing. 4000 Biggest drops have been 1993 and 2000 (drought). 3000 * Population growth has accelerated since the middle of the 2000 80's. 1000 * Average annual growth of: population (1961-2004) 2.43 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum value of total production (1961-2004) 1.92 of 1961 of 1963 of 1965 of of 1967 1969 of 1971 of 1973 of 1975 of of 1977 1979 of 1981 of 1983 of of 1985 1987 of 1989 of 1991 of 1993 of of 1995 1997 of 1999 of 2001 of 2003 value of total production (1999-2004) 2.84 Year 29 Non-conflict countries – Comoros Agricultural grs production per capita in Comoros, 1961-2003 Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Comoros, 1961-2004 100 45000 90 40000 80 35000 70 30000 60 value per capita Value in 1000$ 25000 50 20000 40 15000 30 10000 20 5000 10 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Comoros 1961-2003 900 800 700 Findings: * Comoros has had steady growth since the 60's. There has 600 been only two drops: 1981 and 1984. 500 * Production per capita has steadily decreased. Millions 400 * Even though the value of production has been doubeled, it haven't been enough to keep the pr/capita in the same level. 300 * Average annual growth of: 200 population (1961-2004) 3.16 100 value of total production (1961-2004) 1.92 value of total production (1999-2004) 1.05 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year 30 Non-conflict countries – Gabon Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Gabon, 1961-2004 Agricultural grs production per capita in Gabon, 1961-2003 250000 250 200000 200 150000 150 value per capita Value in 1000$ 100000 100 50000 50 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Gabon 1961-2003 1400 1200 1000 Findings: 800 * Steady production growth since the 60's. Millions 600 * There are not big changes in production per capita over the period; most of the time it has been between 150-180. 400 Last ten years the production value per capita has been 200 lower than before. * Average annual growth of: 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum population (1961-2004) 2.71 of of 1961 1963 of of of of of of of of of 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 of of of of of of of of of 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 of of 2001 2003 value of total production (1961-2004) 2.41 Year value of total production (1999-2004) 0.48 31 Non-conflict countries – Gambia Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Gambia, 1961-2004 Agricultural grs production per capita in Gambia, 1961-2003 140000 250 120000 200 100000 Value in 1000$ 150 value per capita 80000 60000 100 40000 50 20000 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Gambia 1961-2003 1600 1400 1200 Findings: * Value of production has had very big fluctuations over the time 1000 (heavy dependence on peanut exports) Even with the high fluctuations the production has more or less Millions 800 stagnated. 600 * Production per capita has been decreasing to one fourth from the 400 level of the 60's. * Average annual growth of: 200 population (1961-2004) 3.41 0 value of total production (1961-2004) -0.09 Sum Sum of of Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of Sum Sum of of value of total production (1999-2004) -7.20 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year 32 Non-conflict countries –Ghana Agricultural grs production per capita in Ghana, 1961-2003 Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Ghana, 1961-2004 200 4500000 180 4000000 160 3500000 140 3000000 120 value per capita Value in 1000$ 2500000 100 2000000 80 1500000 60 1000000 40 500000 20 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year P op u l a t i o n g r o wt h i n Gh a n a 19 6 1- 2 0 0 3 25000 20000 Findings: 15000 * Production has been increasing since the beginning of the 80's 10000 * Production per capita dropped around 25 percent between 1975 and 1990. It reached the level of 1975 in 1991. * Average annual growth of: 5000 population (1961-2004) 2.74 value of total production (1961-2004) 2.73 0 value of total production (1999-2004) 4.73 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Y ear 33 Non-conflict countries – Kenya Agricultural grs production per capita in Kenya, 1961-2003 Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Kenya, 1961-2004 140 4000000 120 3500000 100 3000000 value per capita 2500000 80 Value in 1000$ 2000000 60 1500000 40 1000000 20 500000 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Kenya 1961-2003 35000 30000 Findings: 25000 * Production has increased steadily since the 60's. The biggest drop has happened in 1984. 20000 * Production per capita has stayed around 120$. In the period of Millions 15000 1975-1990 there was more fluctuation. * Average annual growth of: 10000 population (1961-2004) 3.42, change 275 percent value of total production (1961-2004) 3.29 5000 value of total production (1999-2004) 0.36 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year 34 Non-conflict countries - Lesotho Agricultural grs production per capita in Lesotho, 1961-2003 Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Lesotho, 1961-2004 100 120000 90 80 100000 70 80000 60 value per capita Value in 1000$ 50 60000 40 40000 30 20 20000 10 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Lesotho 1961-2003 2000 1800 1600 1400 Findings: 1200 * The production trend is increasing even though there are very high yearly fluctuations. Millions 1000 800 * The production per capita trend is decreasing with fluctuations. 600 * Average annual growth of: 400 population (1961-2004) 1.91, change 108 percent 200 value of total production (1961-2004) 0.7 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum value of total production (1999-2004) 1.73 of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year 35 Non-conflict countries - Madagascar Agricultural grs production per capita in Madagascar, 1961-2003 Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Madagascar, 1961-2004 250 2500000 2000000 200 150 value per capita 1500000 Value in 1000$ 1000000 100 500000 50 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Madagascar 1961-2003 20000 18000 16000 14000 Findings: * Production has grown slowly and steadily from 12000 the 60's. Millions 10000 * After stagnation until the mid 70's the pr./capita 8000 has slowly and steadily decreased. 6000 * Average annual growth of: 4000 population (1961-2004) 2,78 change 215 percent value of total production (1961-2004) 1.48 2000 value of total production (1999-2004) 0.61 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year 36 Non-conflict countries - Malawi Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Malawi, 1961-2004 Agricultural grs production per capita in Malawi, 1961-2003 1800000 140 1600000 120 1400000 1200000 100 Value in 1000$ value per capita 1000000 80 800000 60 600000 40 400000 200000 20 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Malawi 1961-2003 14000 12000 10000 Findings: * Production grew slowly until drops in 1992 and 1994. After that the 8000 production grew rapidly until the severe drought in 2002. Millions * Production per capita has been in the highest level in the 70's and 6000 in the beginning of the 2000 (over 120$). 4000 The biggest drops have been in the beginning of the 90's. * Average annual growth of: 2000 population (1961-2004) 3.15 change 235 percent value of total production (1961-2004) 2.98 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum value of total production (1999-2004) -2.15 of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year 37 Non-conflict countries - Mali Agricultural grs production per capita in Mali, 1961-2003 Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Mali, 1961-2004 160 2000000 1800000 140 1600000 120 1400000 100 value per capita 1200000 Value in 1000$ 1000000 80 800000 60 600000 40 400000 200000 20 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Mali 1961-2003 14000 12000 10000 Findings: 8000 * Production has grown since 1973. Even in 2000 when the Millions production didn't grow food aid wasn't needed. (GIEWS) 6000 * Most of the time production per capita has stagnated above 4000 and under 120$. * Average annual growth of: 2000 population (1961-2004) 2.51 change 187 percent value of total production (1961-2004) 2.90 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum value of total production (1999-2004) 2.83 of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year 38 Non-conflict countries - Mauritania Agricultural grs production per capita in Mauritania, 1961-2003 Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Mauritania, 1961-2004 200 350000 180 300000 160 140 250000 120 value per capita Value in 1000$ 200000 100 150000 80 60 100000 40 50000 20 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Mauritania 1961-2003 3500 3000 Findings: 2500 * After the drop in the middle of the 70's the production has been growing quite stablely. 2000 * Production per capita has been stagnating and slightly Millions 1500 decreasing since the middle of the 70's. * Average annual growth of: 1000 population (1961-2004) 2.46 change 183 percent 500 value of total production (1961-2004) 1.28 value of total production (1999-2004) 1.81 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year 39 Non-conflict countries - Mauritius Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Mauritius, 1961-2004 Agricultural grs production per capita in M auritius, 1961-2003 200000 250 180000 160000 200 140000 120000 Value in 1000$ 150 value per capita 100000 80000 100 60000 40000 50 20000 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Mauritius 1961-2003 1400 1200 Findings: 1000 * The trend in production has been slightly increasing, but yearly changes have been significant. 800 * Before the beginning of the 80's production per capita Millions 600 fluctuated heavily. After that it has been stagnated except the drop in 1999 400 (no any abnormal weather conditions). 200 * Average annual growth of: population (1961-2004) 1.31 change 80 percent 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum value of total production (1961-2004) 0.71 of 1961 of 1963 of 1965 of 1967 of 1969 of 1971 of 1973 of 1975 of 1977 of 1979 of 1981 of 1983 of 1985 of 1987 of 1989 of 1991 of 1993 of 1995 of 1997 of 1999 of 2001 of 2003 value of total production (1999-2004) 3.64 Year 40 Non-conflict countries – Niger Agricultural grs production per capita in Niger , 1961-2003 Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Niger, 1961-2004 200 1400000 180 1200000 160 140 1000000 120 value per capita Value in 1000$ 800000 100 600000 80 60 400000 40 200000 20 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Niger 1961-2003 14000 12000 Findings: 10000 * There was stagnation in the 60's (drought 68-73) , but after that the trend has been increasing. Yearly fluctuations have 8000 been very big. Millions 6000 * Production per capita decreased from the 60's level of 170$ to the level of 100$ in the 80's. The curve have stagnated 4000 there since then. * Average annual growth of: 2000 population (1961-2004) 3.15 change 267 percent 0 value of total production (1961-2004) 3.15 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of value of total production (1999-2004) 4.37 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year 41 Non-conflict countries – Nigeria Agricultural grs production per capita in Nigeria , 1961-2003 Agricultural GRS Production e valuation in Nige ria, 1961-2004 200 25000000 180 160 20000000 140 120 value per capita 15000000 Value in 1000$ 100 10000000 80 60 5000000 40 20 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Nigeria 1961-2003 140000 120000 Findings: * After stagnation the production started to increase in the 100000 beginning of the 80's. Since then the production has been steadily increasing. 80000 * Production per capita decreased for almost twenty years Millions 60000 between 1973 and 1990. Exceptionally compared to the other SSA-countries, Nigeria 40000 has been able to reach higher level than in the 60's. * Average annual growth of: 20000 population (1961-2004) 2.19 change 223 percent 0 value of total production (1961-2004) 3.23 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of value of total production (1999-2004) 1.18 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year 42 Non-conflict countries – Sao Tome and Principe Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Sao Tome and Principe, 1961-2004 Agricultural grs production per capita in Sao Tome and Principe , 1961-2003 18000 300 16000 14000 250 12000 200 Value in 1 000$ 10000 value per capita 8000 150 6000 100 4000 50 2000 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Sao Tome and Principe 1961-2003 180 160 140 Findings: 120 * After stagnation the value of production went down for several years. 100 The production started to grow again from the beginning of Millions 80 the 90's. * Production per capita has been declining until the 60 beginning of the 90's. 40 Since then it has been slightly increasing and stagnating. 20 * Average annual growth of: population (1961-2004) 2.31 change 148 percent 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum value of total production (1961-2004) -0.19 of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 value of total production (1999-2004) 0.76 Year 43 Non-conflict countries – Senegal Agricultural grs production per capita in Sene gal, 1961-2003 Agricultural GRS Production ev aluation in Sene gal, 1961-2004 250 1400000 1200000 200 1000000 150 value per capita Value in 1000$ 800000 600000 100 400000 50 200000 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Senegal 1961-2003 12000 Findings: * Production has been fluctuated very much, especially before 10000 the 80's. The trend is increasing. The reason for a drop in 2002 was a 8000 drought-> the production of main cash crop, groundnut, went down over Millions 6000 40 percent. * Production per capita has been declining. Fluctuations has 4000 been lessen in the 80's and 90's. * Average annual growth of: 2000 population (1961-2004) 2.78 change 209 percent value of total production (1961-2004) 0.93 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum value of total production (1999-2004) -4.81 of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year 44 Non-conflict countries – South Africa Agricultural grs production per capita in South Africa, 1961-2003 Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in South Africa, 1961-2004 300 10000000 9000000 250 8000000 7000000 200 value per capita 6000000 Value in 1000$ 5000000 150 4000000 100 3000000 2000000 50 1000000 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in South Africa 1961-2003 50000 45000 40000 Findings: 35000 * Production has been increasing and it has been doubled 30000 since the beginning of the period. Millions 25000 * In the period the production per capita has been stagnated 20000 and decreased slightly. * Average annual growth of: 15000 population (1961-2004) 2.33 change 152 percent 10000 value of total production (1961-2004) 1.65 5000 value of total production (1999-2004) 1.17 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year 45 Non-conflict countries – Swaziland Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Swasiland, 1961-2004 Agricultural grs production per capita in Swaziland, 1961-2003 250000 300 250 200000 200 value per capita 150000 Value in 1000$ 150 100000 100 50000 50 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Swaziland 1961-2003 1200 1000 Findings: 800 * Production grew until 1991. After that it decreased some and from 1995 it has been more or less stagnating. Millions 600 * Production per capita slightly increased until the beginning of the 80's. Since then it has been decreasing. 400 * Average annual growth of: population (1961-2004) 2.90 change 200 percent 200 value of total production (1961-2004) 2.15 value of total production (1999-2004) -0.99 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year 46 Non-conflict countries – Tanzania Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Tanzania, 1961-2004 Agricultural grs production per capita in Tanzania, 1961-2003 4000000 140 3500000 120 3000000 100 2500000 value per capita Value in 1000$ 80 2000000 60 1500000 40 1000000 500000 20 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Tanzania 1961-2003 40000 35000 Findings: 30000 * The value of the production has been growing steadily in the 25000 period, except in 1997 ("Vuli" rains & dry spells at critical stages of the growing season). Millions 20000 * Production per capita has been stagnating since the 90's 15000 when it started to decline. * Average annual growth of: 10000 population (1961-2004) 3.17 change 252 percent 5000 value of total production (1961-2004) 2.40 0 value of total production (1999-2004) 1.48 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year 47 Non-conflict countries – Togo Agricultural grs production per capita in Togo, 1961-2003 Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Togo, 1961-2004 160 700000 140 600000 120 500000 100 value per capita Value in 1000$ 400000 80 300000 60 200000 40 20 100000 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Ye ar Year Population growth in Togo 1961-2003 6000 5000 Findings: 4000 * After slow increase in the 60's and 70's the production growth started to accelerate in the 80's. Millions 3000 * Production per capita was slowly decreasing until the beginning of the 80's, when the trend changed. 2000 * Average annual growth of: population (1961-2004) 2.85 change 219 percent 1000 value of total production (1961-2004) 2.56 value of total production (1999-2004) 2.32 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year 48 Non-conflict countries – Zambia Agricultural grs production per capita in Zambia, 1961-2003 Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Zambia, 1961-2004 120 800000 700000 100 600000 80 500000 value per capita Value in 1000$ 400000 60 300000 40 200000 20 100000 0 0 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of of 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Year Population growth in Zambia 1961-2003 12000 Findings: 10000 * The value of production has been increasing, but the 8000 yearly changes have been bery big. Between 1979 and 1986 the growth was stable and Millions 6000 slow. * The production per capita has had big fluctuations in 4000 the 70's and in the 80's. The trend is decreasing. 2000 * Average annual growth of: 0 population (1961-2004) 3.11change 235 percent Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum Sum of of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum of Sum Sum of of Sum of Sum of Sum of value of total production (1961-2004) 2.25 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 Year 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 value of total production (1999-2004) -0.11 49 General findings concerning non- conflict-affected countries: ● The value of total production has grown in most of the countries. In few countries there has been stagnation and very much fluctuations. In many countries the growth has started to accelerate in the beginning of the 80’s. Only Gambia and Sao Tome & Principe are approximately in the same level as they were in the 60’s. Both are very small countries heavily dependent on exports of one product – Gambia on peanut and Sao Tome and Principe on cocoa crops. They are hostages to fluctuations in the production and world prices of the crop. ●The production per capita has declined in most of the countries. There are only four countries out of 26 non-conflict countries which have been able to keep the value of production per capita in the same level as in the 60’s. (Cape Verde, Kenya, Malawi, Mali) Four countries have higher production per capita level than in the 60’s (Benin, Burkina Faso, Ghana and Nigeria). Only Benin and Burkina Faso have grown clearly. Ghana’s and Nigeria’s production per capita has grown only in the 90’s but most of the time in the period the level has been lower than in the 60’s. The main reason for Benin’s and Burkina Faso’s good performance is propably the increasing price of the cotton. Common factor for Ghana and Nigeria is that their both have much of natural resources. ● Population growth exceeds the production growth, so the production per capita decreases Only six countrie’s (out of 26) total production growth was higher than population growth (Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Ghana, Mali, Nigeria) 50 General findings concerning both groups ● There has been negative trend in rainfall from 1950 onwards culminating, in especially in West Africa 1984. Since then starting in 1988, the Sahel has recorded a series of good years (Gommes, R. 1996) This trend can be seen in graphs. ● Most of the time the worst droughts 1973, 1984 and 1992 can be seen in the curves. Not allways though. ● The growth from the beginning of the eighties can be due to succesfull structural adjustement programmes and the good weather conditions. ● the biggest drops can be seen in the countries where occurs combination of low rainfall and conflict -Population growth can be seen in both groups -in conflict countries the effect of conflict overdraws the effect of population growth -GRS / capita : in the better or same level compared to 60’s: -Conflict countries: Central African Republic, Cote d’ Ivoire, Rwanda -Non-conflict: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Cabon, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria 51 Findings Annex Contents 1. Long-term effects of conflict : 53 Comparison of conflict and non-conflict countries 53 1.1 Average gross production per capita 1961-2004............................................................ 53 1.1.2 T-test for average gross production per capita 1961-2004 56 1.1.3 T-test for average gross production per capita 1961-2004 w/o outliers 57 1.2 Average annual growth rate of total production 1961-2004 .......................................... 58 1.2.1 T-tests for average annual growth rate 1961-2004 59 1.2.2 T-tests for average annual growth rate 1961-2004 w/o outliers 60 1.3 Average annual growth rate of total production per capita 1961-2004.......................... 63 1.3.1 T-test for average annual growth rate per capita 1961-2004 64 1.3.2 T-test for average annual growth rate per capita 1961-2004 w/o outliers 65 2. Regional differences 68 2.1 Value of total agricultural production 1961-2003/2004................................................. 68 2.2 Average annual growth of total production & total production per capita .................... 68 2.2.1 T-test for average annual growth for Eastern and Western Africa 69 2.2.2 T-test for average annual growth per capita for Eastern and Western Africa 70 3. Population growth 71 3.1 The average annual population growth in different regions 1961-2003 ........................ 71 3.2 Average annual population growth in non-conflict and conflict countries 1961-2003.. 72 3.2.1 T-test for average annual population growth 1961-2003 72 3.2.2 T-test test for average annual population growth 1961-2003 w/o outliers 75 4. Differences in periods 77 4. Incidence of drought 79 5. FAO indices of agricultural production 82 1. Long-term effects of conflict : Comparison of conflict and non-conflict countries 1.1 Average gross production per capita 1961-2004 Non-conflict countries Conflict countries Benin 149 Angola 97 Botswana 147 Burundi 128 Central African Burkina Faso 85 Republic 143 53 Cameroon 162 Chad 129 Congo, Dem Cape Verde 49 Republic of 88 Comoros 70 Congo, Republic of 74 Gabon 174 Côte d'Ivoire 225 Gambia 131 Eritrea 39 Ghana 143 Ethiopia 65 Kenya 118 Guinea 118 Lesotho 66 Guinea-Bissau 112 Madagascar 164 Liberia 99 Malawi 111 Mozambique 75 Mali 122 Namibia 264 Mauritania 138 Rwanda 159 Mauritius 159 Sierra Leone 83 Niger 124 Uganda 236 Nigeria 155 Zimbabwe 148 Sao Tome and Principe 142 Senegal 142 South Africa 208 Swaziland 222 Tanzania, United Rep of 114 Togo 117 Zambia 73 Average per capita 131 127 Average non-conflict without South Africa and Swaziland is 124. Average conflict without Cote d’ Ivoire, Namibia and Uganda is 104. There is not a significant difference between total averages in conflict and non-conflict countries. In this case though the average is hiding some information. In conflict and post- conflict countries there are three very good performances which increases the average. Almost half of the group (7/15) the average is less than 100 $. Most of the non-conflict countries have the average over 100 $. Only six out of 28 non-countries have the per capita average less than 100 $. 54 30 25 20 >100$ 15 <100$ 10 5 0 Conflict countries Non-conflict Approximately half of the countries’s gdp is between 100 and 150. The outliers for the conflict countries are seen in the graph. The countries are Namibia, Cote d’ Ivoire and Namibia. When excluding them, the difference in averages is much more significant. Average for non-conflict countries is 131 and conflict countries 98. GRS production per capita annual average over 1961-2003 250 200 Dollar $ 150 Non-conflict countries 100 50 0 0 10 20 30 GRS production per capita annual average over 1961-2003 300 250 200 Dollar $ 150 Conflict countries 100 50 0 0 5 10 15 20 55 1.1.2 T-test for average gross production per capita 1961-2004 Conflict and non-conflict countries t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances Non- conflict 1 Conflict 2 Mean 131.49 126.84 Variance 1732.24 3804.24 Observations 25.00 18 Pooled Variance 2591.36 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0.00 df 41.00 t Stat 0.30 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.38 t Critical one-tail 1.68 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.77 t Critical two-tail 2.02 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances Variable 1 Variable 2 Mean 131.49 126.84 Variance 1732.24 3804.24 Observations 25.00 18.00 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0.00 df 28.00 t Stat 0.28 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.39 t Critical one-tail 1.70 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.78 t Critical two-tail 2.05 The probability of having a difference in means by chance is 0.00. So means are statistically not different. Null hypothesis: no mean difference t-value: 0.28 Critical t-value: 1.70 one tail 2.05 two tails Our t-value does fall within the -2.05 to 2.05 interval. Therefore, we do not reject the null hypothesis, so the means are not different. 56 1.1.3 T-test for average gross production per capita 1961-2004 w/o outliers Conflict and non-conflict countries Outliers: non-conflict: South Africa & Swaziland conflict: Ivory coast, Namibia, Uganda t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances Non- conflict Conflict 1 2 Mean 124.26 103.83 Variance 1202.72 1158.93 Observations 23.00 15.00 Pooled Variance 1185.69 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0.00 df 36.00 t Stat 1.79 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.04 t Critical one-tail 1.69 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.08 t Critical two-tail 2.03 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances Variable Variable 1 2 Mean 124.26 103.83 Variance 1202.72 1158.93 Observations 23.00 15.00 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0.00 df 30.00 t Stat 1.79 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.04 t Critical one-tail 1.70 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.08 t Critical two-tail 2.04 The probability of having a difference in means by chance is 0.00. So, we can say that the means are statistically significantly different at 92 % level of confidence Null hypothesis: no mean difference t-value: 1.79 Critical t-value: 1.70 one tail 2.04 two tails Our t-value does not fall within the -1.70 to 1.70 interval. Therefore, we do reject the null hypothesis, so the means are different. 57 1.2 Average annual growth rate of total production 1961-2004 Agricultural grs production (FAO Stat 2005) There is a difference between conflict affected and non-conflict affected countries in growth rates. In the long term (1961-2004) the non-conflict countries has better average annual growth rate. In non-conflict countries more than a half had growth rate over two, but conflict countries only one fourth. Non-conflict Conflict Benin 4.29 Angola 0.64 Botswana 0.82 Burundi 1.17 Burkina Faso 3.78 Central African Republic 2.54 Cameroon 2.81 Chad 1.92 Cape Verde 2.74 Congo, Dem Republic of 1.46 Comoros 1.92 Congo, Republic of 1.61 Djibouti 5.48 Côte d'Ivoire 3.67 Gabon 2.41 Eritrea 0.18 Gambia -0.09 Ethiopia 1.30 Ghana 2.73 Guinea 1.95 Kenya 3.29 Guinea-Bissau 2.38 Lesotho 0.70 Liberia 1.05 Madagascar 1.48 Mozambique 0.66 Malawi 2.98 Namibia 0.32 Mali 2.90 Rwanda 2.21 Mauritania 1.28 Sierra Leone 0.90 Mauritius 0.71 Sudan 2.50 Niger 1.90 Uganda 1.93 Nigeria 3.23 Sao Tome and Principe -0.19 Senegal 0.93 Seychelles -0.33 South Africa 1.65 Swaziland 2.15 Togo 2.56 Zambia 2.25 Zimbabwe 2.03 Simple average 2.09 1.58 Average annual growth (known_y's,known_x's,new_x's,const) 2.62 1.41 58 1.2.1 T-tests for average annual growth rate 1961-2004 Conflict and non-conflict countries t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances Non- conflict 1 Conflict 2 Mean 2.09 1.58 Variance 1.88 0.81 Observations 27.00 18.00 Pooled Variance 1.46 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0.00 df 43.00 t Stat 1.39 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.09 t Critical one-tail 1.68 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.17 t Critical two-tail 2.02 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances Variable 1 Variable 2 Mean 2.09 1.58 Variance 1.88 0.81 Observations 27.00 18.00 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0.00 df 43.00 t Stat 1.51 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.07 t Critical one-tail 1.68 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.14 t Critical two-tail 2.02 The probability of having a difference in means by chance is 0.00. Null hypothesis: no mean difference t-value: 1.51 Critical t-value: 1.68 one tail 2.02 two tails Our t-value does fall within the -1.68 to 1.68 interval. Therefore, we do not reject the null hypothesis, so the means are not different. 59 1.2.2 T-tests for average annual growth rate 1961-2004 w/o outliers Conflict and non-conflict countries Outliers: non-conflict: Djibouti, Gambia, Benin, Sao Tome and Principe, Seychelles conflict: Cote d’ Ivoire, Eritrea, Namibia Non-conflict Conflict Benin Angola 0.64 Botswana 0.82 Burundi 1.17 Central African Burkina Faso 3.78 Republic 2.54 Cameroon 2.81 Chad 1.92 Congo, Dem Republic Cape Verde 2.74 of 1.46 Comoros 1.92 Congo, Republic of 1.61 Djibouti Côte d'Ivoire Gabon 2.41 Eritrea Gambia Ethiopia 1.30 Ghana 2.73 Guinea 1.95 Kenya 3.29 Guinea-Bissau 2.38 Lesotho 0.70 Liberia 1.05 Madagascar 1.48 Mozambique 0.66 Malawi 2.98 Namibia Mali 2.90 Rwanda 2.21 Mauritania 1.28 Sierra Leone 0.90 Mauritius 0.71 Sudan 2.50 Niger 1.90 Uganda 1.93 Nigeria 3.23 Sao Tome and Principe Senegal 0.93 Seychelles South Africa 1.65 Swaziland 2.15 Togo 2.56 Zambia 2.25 Zimbabwe 2.03 Simple average 2.15 1.62 60 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances Non- conflict 1 Conflict 2 Mean 2.15 1.62 Variance 0.80 0.42 Observations 22.00 15.00 Pooled Variance 0.65 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0.00 df 35.00 t Stat 1.98 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.03 t Critical one-tail 1.69 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.06 t Critical two-tail 2.03 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances Variable 1 Variable 2 Mean 2.15 1.62 Variance 0.80 0.42 Observations 22.00 15.00 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0.00 df 35.00 t Stat 2.10 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.02 t Critical one-tail 1.69 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.04 t Critical two-tail 2.03 The probability of having a difference in means by chance is 0.00. So, we can say that the means are statistically significantly different at 96 % level of confidence Null hypothesis: no mean difference t-value: 2.10 Critical t-value: 1.69 one tail 2.03 two tails Our t-value does not fall within the -1.69 to 1.69 or -2.03 to 2.03 interval. Therefore, we do reject the null hypothesis, so the means are different. 61 Average annual growth rate of total pr. 1961-2004 6.00 5.00 4.00 Growth rate 3.00 Non-conflict countries 2.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00 0 10 20 30 Average annual growth rate of total production 1961-2004 4.00 3.50 3.00 Growth rate 2.50 2.00 Conflict countries 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 0 5 10 15 20 62 1.3 Average annual growth rate of total production per capita 1961-2004 Agricultural grs production per capita (FAO Stat 2005) Non-conflict countries Conflict countries Benin 1.45 Angola -1.97 Botswana -2.16 Burundi -0.87 Central African Burkina Faso 1.14 Republic 0.24 Cameroon 0.06 Chad -0.54 Congo, Dem Republic Cape Verde 0.93 of -1.40 Comoros -1.20 Congo, Republic of -1.54 Gabon -0.26 Côte d'Ivoire 0.01 Gambia -3.39 Eritrea 1993-2003 -2.23 Ghana -0.09 Ethiopia 1993-2003 1.32 Kenya -0.09 Guinea -0.54 Lesotho -1.18 Rwanda -0.04 Liberia -1.28 Sierra Leone -0.85 Madagascar -1.24 Uganda -1.18 Malawi -0.16 Mali 0.38 Post-conflict countries Mauritania -1.17 Guinea-Bissau -0.25 Mauritius -0.58 Mozambique -1.47 Niger -1.27 Namibia -2.43 Nigeria 0.30 Sao Tome and Principe -2.53 Senegal -1.80 South Africa -0.64 Swaziland -0.65 Tanzania, United Rep of -0.71 Togo -0.29 Zambia -0.81 Zimbabwe -1.06 Simple average -0.68 -0.86 Average annual growth -0.66 -0.93 (known_y's,known_x's,new_x's,const) 63 1.3.1 T-test for average annual growth rate per capita 1961-2004 Conflict and non-conflict countries t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances Variable 1 Variable 2 Mean -0.68 -0.86 Variance 1.17 0.99 Observations 27.00 16.00 Pooled Variance 1.11 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0.00 df 41.00 t Stat 0.54 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.29 t Critical one-tail 1.68 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.59 t Critical two-tail 2.02 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances Variable 1 Variable 2 Mean -0.68 -0.86 Variance 1.17 0.99 Observations 27.00 16.00 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0.00 df 34.00 t Stat 0.56 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.29 t Critical one-tail 1.69 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.58 t Critical two-tail 2.03 The probability of having a difference in means by chance is 0.00 (i.e., the P(T<=t) two tail) Null hypothesis: no mean difference t-value: 0.56 Critical t-value: 1.69 one tail 2.03 two tails Our t-value does fall within the -2.03 to 2.03 interval. Therefore, we do not reject the null hypothesis, so the means are not different. 64 1.3.2 T-test for average annual growth rate per capita 1961-2004 w/o outliers Conflict and non-conflict countries Outliers: non-conflict: Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Sao Tome and Principe, Gambia conflict: Ethiopia, Eritrea, Namibia Non-conflict countries Conflict countries Benin Angola -1.97 Botswana Burundi -0.87 Central African Burkina Faso Republic 0.24 Cameroon 0.06 Chad -0.54 Congo, Dem Cape Verde 0.93 Republic of -1.40 Comoros -1.20 Congo, Republic of -1.54 Gabon -0.26 Côte d'Ivoire 0.01 Gambia Eritrea Ghana -0.09 Ethiopia Kenya -0.09 Guinea -0.54 Lesotho -1.18 Guinea-Bissau -0.25 Liberia -1.28 Mozambique -1.47 Madagascar -1.24 Namibia Malawi -0.16 Rwanda -0.04 Mali 0.38 Sierra Leone -0.85 Mauritania -1.17 Uganda -1.18 Mauritius -0.58 Niger -1.27 Nigeria 0.30 Sao Tome and Principe Senegal -1.80 South Africa -0.64 Swaziland -0.65 Tanzania, United Rep of -0.71 Togo -0.29 Zambia -0.81 Zimbabwe -1.06 Simple average -0.58 -0.80 65 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances Variable 1 Variable 2 Mean -0.58 -0.80 Variance 0.45 0.47 Observations 22.00 13.00 Pooled Variance 0.46 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0.00 df 33.00 t Stat 0.91 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.18 t Critical one-tail 1.69 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.37 t Critical two-tail 2.03 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances Variable 1 Variable 2 Mean -0.58 -0.80 Variance 0.45 0.47 Observations 22.00 13.00 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0.00 df 25.00 t Stat 0.91 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.19 t Critical one-tail 1.71 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.37 t Critical two-tail 2.06 The probability of having a difference in means by chance is 0.00 (i.e., the P(T<=t) two tail) So, we can say that the means are statistically significantly different at 95 % level of confidence Null hypothesis: no mean difference t-value: 0.91 Critical t-value: 1.71 one tail 2.06 two tails Our t-value does fall within the -2.06 to 2.06 interval. Therefore, we do not reject the null hypothesis, so the means are not different. 66 Average annual growth of total agricultural value (per capita) 1961-2003 2.00 1.00 Growth rate 0.00 -1.00 0 10 20 30 Non-conflict countries -2.00 -3.00 -4.00 Average annual growth of total agricultural value (per capita) 1961-2003 2.00 1.00 Growth rate 0.00 0 5 10 15 20 Conflict countries -1.00 -2.00 -3.00 67 2. Regional differences Regional classification of countries is based on the classification FAO Global Information and Early Warning System on food and agriculture (GIEWS) is using in its reports. For example in yearly Africa Reports. 2.1 Value of total agricultural production 1961-2003/2004 Average annual Average annual growth per growth capita Eastern Africa 1.53 -0.34 Western Africa 2.94 -0.43 Central Africa 1.64 -0.78 Southern Africa 1.58 -1.23 Average annual growth (known_y's,known_x's,new_x's,const) The growth in Western Africa has been almost double compared to other regions. The best per capita average is in eastern Africa, but the differences are very small. Simple average: Simple average: growth growth p/c Eastern Africa 1.80 -0.90 Western Africa 2.24 -0.43 Central Africa 1.57 -1.10 Southern Africa 1.36 -1.20 2.2 Average annual growth of total production & total production per capita Average annual Average annual Regions growth growth p/c Central African central Republic 2.54 0.24 Congo, Dem Republic of 1.46 -1.40 Congo, Republic of 1.61 -1.54 Gabon 2.41 -0.26 Sao Tome and Principe -0.19 -2.53 central simple average 1.57 -1.10 eastern Burundi 1.17 -0.87 Comoros 1.92 -1.20 Eritrea 0.18 -2.23 Ethiopia 1.30 Kenya 3.29 -0.09 Rwanda 2.21 -0.04 Tanzania, United Rep of 2.40 -0.71 Uganda 1.93 -1.18 68 eastern simple average 1.80 -0.90 southern Angola 0.64 -1.97 Botswana 0.82 -2.16 Lesotho 0.70 -1.18 Madagascar 1.48 -1.24 Malawi 2.98 -0.16 Mauritius 0.71 -0.58 Mozambique 0.66 -1.47 Namibia 0.32 -2.43 South Africa 1.65 -0.64 Swaziland 2.15 -0.65 Zambia 2.25 -0.81 Zimbabwe 2.03 -1.06 southern simple average 1.36 -1.20 western Benin 4.29 1.45 Burkina Faso 3.78 1.14 Cape Verde 2.74 0.93 Chad 1.92 -0.54 Côte d'Ivoire 3.67 0.01 Gambia -0.09 -3.39 Ghana 2.73 -0.09 Guinea 1.95 -0.54 Guinea-Bissau 2.38 -0.25 Liberia 1.05 -1.28 Mali 2.90 0.38 Mauritania 1.28 -1.17 Niger 1.90 -1.27 Nigeria 3.23 0.30 Senegal 0.93 -1.80 Sierra Leone 0.90 -0.85 Togo 2.56 -0.29 western simple average 2.24 -0.43 2.2.1 T-test for average annual growth for Eastern and Western Africa t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances Eastern Western 1 2 Mean 1.80 2.24 Variance 0.86 1.39 Observations 8.00 17.00 Pooled Variance 1.23 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0.00 df 23.00 t Stat -0.93 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.18 t Critical one-tail 1.71 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.36 69 t Critical two-tail 2.07 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances Eastern Western 1 2 Mean 1.80 2.24 Variance 0.86 1.39 Observations 8.00 17.00 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0.00 df 17.00 t Stat -1.01 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.16 t Critical one-tail 1.74 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.32 t Critical two-tail 2.11 There is no difference in means. 2.2.2 T-test for average annual growth per capita for Eastern and Western Africa t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances Eastern Western 1 2 Mean -0.90 -0.43 Variance 0.56 1.39 Observations 7.00 17.00 Pooled Variance 1.16 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0.00 df 22.00 t Stat -0.98 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.17 t Critical one-tail 1.72 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.34 t Critical two-tail 2.07 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances Eastern Western 1 2 Mean -0.90 -0.43 Variance 0.56 1.39 Observations 7.00 17.00 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0.00 df 18.00 t Stat -1.18 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.13 t Critical one-tail 1.73 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.25 t Critical two-tail 2.10 70 There is no difference in means. There also is not any difference in means when excluding outliers Eritrea and Gambia. 3. Population growth 3.1 The average annual population growth in different regions 1961-2003 Central African central Republic 2.30 Congo, Dem Republic of 2.98 Congo, Republic of 3.19 Gabon 2.71 Sao Tome and Principe 2.31 Central simple average 2.70 eastern Burundi 2.09 Comoros 3.16 Eritrea 2.90 Ethiopia 2.55 Kenya 3.42 Rwanda 2.27 Tanzania, United Rep of 3.17 Uganda 3.14 Eastern simple average 2.84 southern Angola 2.57 Botswana 3.09 Lesotho 1.91 Madagascar 2.78 Malawi 3.15 Mauritius 1.31 Mozambique 2.11 Namibia 2.84 South Africa 2.33 Swaziland 2.90 Zambia 3.11 Zimbabwe 3.18 Southern simple average 2.61 western Benin 2.74 Burkina Faso 2.56 Cape Verde 1.79 Chad 2.43 Co´te d'Ivoire 3.75 Gambia 3.41 Ghana 2.74 Guinea 2.47 Guinea-Bissau 2.63 Liberia 2.36 Mali 2.51 Mauritania 2.46 Niger 3.15 71 Nigeria 2.91 Senegal 2.78 Sierra Leone 1.80 Togo 2.85 Western simple average 2.67 Regional classification of countries is based on the classification FAO Global Information and Early Warning System on food and agriculture (GIEWS) is using in its reports. For example in yearly Africa Reports. 3.2 Average annual population growth in non-conflict and conflict countries 1961-2003 Non-conflict Conflict Benin 2.74 Angola 2.57 Botswana 3.09 Burundi 2.09 Central African Burkina Faso 2.56 Republic 2.30 Cameroon 2.75 Chad 2.43 Cape Verde 1.79 Co´te d'Ivoire 3.75 Congo, Dem Republic Comoros 3.16 of 2.98 Gabon 2.71 Congo, Republic of 3.19 Gambia 3.41 Eritrea 2.90 Ghana 2.74 Ethiopia 2.55 Kenya 3.42 Guinea 2.47 Lesotho 1.91 Guinea-Bissau 2.63 Madagascar 2.78 Liberia 2.36 Malawi 3.15 Mozambique 2.11 Mali 2.51 Namibia 2.84 Mauritania 2.46 Rwanda 2.27 Mauritius 1.31 Sierra Leone 1.80 Niger 3.15 Uganda 3.14 Nigeria 2.91 Zimbabwe 3.18 Sao Tome and Principe 2.31 Senegal 2.78 South Africa 2.33 Swaziland 2.90 Tanzania, United Rep of 3.17 Togo 2.85 Zambia 3.11 NC simple average 2.72 C simple average 2.64 3.2.1 T-test for average annual population growth 1961-2003 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances Non- conflict 1 Conflict 2 Mean 2.72 2.64 Variance 0.25 0.24 72 Observations 25.00 18.00 Pooled Variance 0.25 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0.00 df 41.00 t Stat 0.51 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.31 t Critical one-tail 1.68 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.61 t Critical two-tail 2.02 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances Non- conflict 1 Conflict 2 Mean 2.72 2.64 Variance 0.25 0.24 Observations 25.00 18.00 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0.00 df 38.00 t Stat 0.51 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.31 t Critical one-tail 1.69 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.61 t Critical two-tail 2.02 The probability of having a difference in means is 0.31 (one-tailed) and 0.61 (two-tailed). Null hypothesis: no mean difference t-value: 0.51 Critical t-value: 1.69 one tail 2.02 two tails Our t-value does fall within the -1.69 to 1.69 interval. Therefore, we do not reject the null hypothesis, so the means are not different. 73 Average annual population growth 1961-2003 4.00 Growth rate 3.00 2.00 Non-conflict countries 1.00 0.00 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Amount of countries Average annual population growth 1961-2003 4.00 Growth rates 3.00 2.00 Conflict countries 1.00 0.00 0 5 10 15 20 Amount of countries 74 3.2.2 T-test test for average annual population growth 1961-2003 w/o outliers Outliers: non-conflict:Mauritius conflict: Cote d’Ivoire, Sierra Leone Non-conflict Conflict Benin 2.74 Angola 2.57 Botswana 3.09 Burundi 2.09 Central African Burkina Faso 2.56 Republic 2.30 Cameroon 2.75 Chad 2.43 Cape Verde 1.79 Co´te d'Ivoire Congo, Dem Republic Comoros 3.16 of 2.98 Gabon 2.71 Congo, Republic of 3.19 Gambia 3.41 Eritrea 2.90 Ghana 2.74 Ethiopia 2.55 Kenya 3.42 Guinea 2.47 Lesotho 1.91 Guinea-Bissau 2.63 Madagascar 2.78 Liberia 2.36 Malawi 3.15 Mozambique 2.11 Mali 2.51 Namibia 2.84 Mauritania 2.46 Rwanda 2.27 Mauritius Sierra Leone Niger 3.15 Uganda 3.14 Nigeria 2.91 Zimbabwe 3.18 Sao Tome and Principe 2.31 Senegal 2.78 South Africa 2.33 Swaziland 2.90 Tanzania, United Rep of 3.17 Togo 2.85 Zambia 3.11 NC simple average 2.78 C simple average 2.62 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances Non- conflict 1 Conflict 2 Mean 2.78 2.62 Variance 0.17 0.14 Observations 24.00 16.00 Pooled Variance 0.16 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0.00 df 38.00 t Stat 1.19 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.12 t Critical one-tail 1.69 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.24 t Critical two-tail 2.02 75 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances Non- conflict 1 Conflict 2 Mean 2.78 2.62 Variance 0.17 0.14 Observations 24.00 16.00 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0.00 df 35.00 t Stat 1.22 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.12 t Critical one-tail 1.69 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.23 t Critical two-tail 2.03 The probability of having a difference in means is 0.12 (one-tailed) and 0.23 (two-tailed). Null hypothesis: no mean difference t-value: 1.22 Critical t-value: 1.69 one tail 2.03 two tails Our t-value does fall within the -1.69 to 1.69 interval. Therefore, we do not reject the null hypothesis, so the means are not different 76 4. Differences in periods Average growth rate before and after 1980 Value of total agricultural production Average annual growth rate 8 6 4 2 Growth % RATE 1961-79 0 RATE 1980-2004 0 20 40 60 -2 -4 -6 -8 There are no significant differences in the averages. RATE RATE Country Situation Location 61-79 80-04 Angola conflict southern 0.08 3.06 non- Benin conflict western 2.33 6.07 non- Botswana conflict southern 2.07 0.26 non- Burkina Faso conflict western 1.64 5.03 Burundi conflict eastern 1.58 0.63 non- Cameroon conflict central 3.26 3.42 non- Cape Verde conflict western -1.88 4.13 Central African Republic conflict central 3.02 2.71 Chad conflict western 0.15 3.59 non- Comoros conflict eastern 1.92 2.47 Congo, Dem Republic of conflict central 2.03 0.15 Congo, Republic of conflict central 1.26 1.79 Côte d'Ivoire conflict western 4.91 2.86 77 non- Djibouti conflict eastern 5.48 2.00 Equatorial Guinea central -5.56 1.52 Eritrea conflict eastern 1.06 -17.62 Ethiopia conflict eastern 1.06 1.42 Ethiopia PDR eastern 1.06 non- Gabon conflict central 2.25 1.95 non- Gambia conflict western 0.10 0.38 non- Ghana conflict western 1.07 5.37 Guinea conflict western 1.48 3.08 Guinea-Bissau conflict western -0.16 2.99 non- Kenya conflict eastern 3.63 3.02 non- Lesotho conflict southern 1.05 0.40 Liberia conflict western 3.59 -0.20 non- Madagascar conflict southern 2.16 1.12 non- Malawi conflict southern 4.23 2.93 non- Mali conflict western 2.11 3.22 non- Mauritania conflict western -0.11 1.80 non- Mauritius conflict southern 1.46 0.70 Mozambique conflict southern 1.39 1.84 Namibia conflict southern 1.84 0.49 non- Niger conflict western 0.47 3.08 non- Nigeria conflict western 0.85 5.46 Rwanda conflict eastern 4.21 0.60 Réunion non-conflict 1.22 2.21 Sao Tome and non- Principe conflict central -1.51 2.52 non- Senegal conflict western 0.50 1.58 non- Seychelles conflict eastern -1.24 0.60 Sierra Leone conflict western 2.01 -0.13 non- South Africa conflict southern 2.80 1.19 Sudan conflict eastern 3.30 2.86 non- Swaziland conflict southern 4.18 -0.01 Tanzania, United Rep of eastern 3.49 1.50 non- Togo conflict western 1.42 3.48 Uganda conflict eastern 4.19 2.88 non- Zambia conflict southern 4.02 2.09 Zimbabwe conflict southern 3.79 1.52 78 4. Incidence of drought D= significant shortage of rain Country 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 Angola Benin D Botswana D Burkina Faso D D D Burundi Cameroon Cape Verde D D D Central African Rep D D D Chad D D D Comoros Congo, Dem Rep of Congo, Republic of Côte d'Ivoire D Djibouti Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Ethiopia Ethiopia PDR D Gabon Gambia D D D Ghana D Guinea Guinea-Bissau D D D Kenya Lesotho D Liberia Madagascar Malawi Mali D D D Mauritania D D D Mauritius Mozambique Namibia Niger D D D Nigeria Rwanda Réunion Sao Tome&Principe Senegal D D D Seychelles Sierra Leone South Africa D Sudan D D D Swaziland D south south south Tanzania, UnitRep of D D D D Togo D Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe Source: FAO Agrometeorology series. Number 9. Gommes, R & Petrassi, F, 1994. 79 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. excluding South Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. excluding South Africa & Nigeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Angola .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Benin .. .. D D D D D D .. .. Botswana .. .. .. D D .. .. .. .. .. Burkina Faso .. .. .. .. D D D .. .. .. .. .. Burundi Cameroon .. .. .. D .. .. .. .. .. .. Cape Verde .. D D D D D .. .. .. .. Central African Republic .. .. .. D D .. .. .. .. .. Chad .. .. .. D D .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Comoros Congo, Democratic Rep. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. of .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Congo, Republic of .. .. Côte d'Ivoire .. .. .. D .. .. .. .. .. .. Djibouti .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Equatorial Guinea Eritrea .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Ethiopia D D .. .. D D .. D D .. Gabon .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Gambia, The .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. D D D .. .. .. .. .. Ghana .. .. .. .. .. Guinea .. .. .. .. .. Guinea-Bissau .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Kenya .. .. .. .. D .. .. .. .. .. Lesotho .. .. D D .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Liberia Madagascar .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Malawi D D .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Mali .. .. D D D .. .. .. .. .. Mauritania .. .. .. D D .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. D .. .. .. .. .. .. Mauritius D .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Mozambique .. D .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Namibia .. .. .. D D .. .. D .. .. Niger .. .. Nigeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Rwanda .. .. .. .. D .. .. .. .. .. .. .. D D .. .. .. .. .. .. São Tomé and Principe Senegal D .. .. D D .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Seychelles .. .. Sierra Leone .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Somalia .. .. .. D .. .. .. .. .. .. South Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. D .. .. D .. D Sudan D .. .. .. .. D .. .. Swaziland .. .. .. .. D D .. .. .. .. Tanzania .. .. Togo .. .. .. D .. .. .. .. .. .. Uganda .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Zambia .. .. D D D .. .. .. .. .. .. .. D D D .. .. .. .. .. Zimbabwe 80 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. excluding South Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. excluding South Africa & Nigeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Angola .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Benin .. .. D .. .. D .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Botswana .. .. .. .. .. .. .. D .. .. D .. .. .. Burkina Faso .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. D D D .. .. .. Burundi Cameroon .. .. .. .. .. .. D D .. .. .. .. .. .. Cape Verde .. .. .. D D .. .. D D D D D D D Central African Republic .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Chad .. .. .. D .. D D D .. D D .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Comoros Congo, Democratic Rep. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. of .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Congo, Republic of Côte d'Ivoire .. .. .. .. .. .. .. D .. .. .. .. .. .. Djibouti .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. D D .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Equatorial Guinea Eritrea .. .. .. .. .. .. D D .. D D D D D Ethiopia .. D D .. D .. .. D .. D D D D D Gabon .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Gambia, The .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. D .. D .. .. .. Ghana .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Guinea Guinea-Bissau .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Kenya .. .. D D .. .. .. D D D D D D D Lesotho .. .. D .. .. D .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Liberia Madagascar .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. D D D D D Malawi .. .. D .. D D .. D D .. .. .. .. D Mali .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Mauritania .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. D D D .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Mauritius .. .. D .. .. D .. .. D .. .. Mozambique D D D .. .. D .. .. D .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Namibia D .. .. .. .. D D D .. .. D .. .. .. Niger Nigeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Rwanda .. .. .. .. .. D D .. D D D .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. São Tomé and Principe Senegal .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Seychelles Sierra Leone .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Somalia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. D .. .. D D D South Africa .. .. D .. .. D .. D .. .. .. .. .. .. D .. .. .. .. D .. D .. .. D D D D Sudan .. .. D .. .. D .. .. .. .. .. Swaziland D D D .. .. D .. .. .. .. D D D D .. Tanzania D D Togo .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. D .. .. .. Uganda .. .. .. .. .. .. .. D .. D D D D D Zambia .. .. D .. D D .. D D .. .. D D D .. .. D .. D D .. .. .. .. .. D D D Zimbabwe Source: African Development Indicators, WB (2004) 81 5. FAO indices of agricultural production PIN's are calculated at constant prices using the same set of weights for all countries and regions in the world. These weights are the international prices calculated at international dollars The FAO indices of agricultural production show the relative level of the aggregate volume of agricultural production for each year in comparison with the base period 1999-2001. They are based on the sum of price-weighted quantities of different agricultural commodities produced after deductions of quantities used as seed and feed weighted in a similar manner. The resulting aggregate represents, therefore, disposable production for any use except as seed and feed. All the indices at the country, regional and world levels are calculated by the Laspeyres formula. Production quantities of each commodity are weighted by 1999-2001 average international commodity prices and summed for each year. To obtain the index, the aggregate for a given year is divided by the average aggregate for the base period 1999-2001. Since the FAO indices are based on the concept of agriculture as a single enterprise, amounts of seed and feed are subtracted from the production data to avoid double counting them, once in the production data and once with the crops or livestock produced from them. Deductions for seed (in the case of eggs, for hatching) and for livestock and poultry feed apply to both domestically produced and imported commodities. They cover only primary agricultural products destined to animal feed (e.g. maize, potatoes, milk, etc.). Processed and semi- processed feed items such as bran, oilcakes, meals and molasses have been completely excluded from the calculations at all stages. It should be noted that when calculating indices of agricultural, food and nonfood production, all intermediate primary inputs of agricultural origin are deducted. However, for indices of any other commodity group, only inputs originating from within the same group are deducted; thus, only seed is removed from the group “crops” and from all crop subgroups, such as cereals, oil crops, etc.; and both feed and seed originating from within the livestock sector (e.g. milk feed, hatching eggs) are removed from the group “livestock products”. For the main two livestock subgroups, namely, meat and milk, only feed originating from the respective subgroup is removed. The”international commodity prices” are used in order to avoid the use of exchange rates for obtaining continental and world aggregates, and also to improve and facilitate international comparative analysis of productivity at the national level. These” international prices”, expressed in so-called”international dollars”, are derived using a Geary-Khamis formula for the agricultural sector. This method assigns a single “price” to each commodity. For example, one metric ton of wheat has the same price regardless of the country where it was produced. The currency unit in which the prices are expressed has no influence on the indices published. The commodities covered in the computation of indices of agricultural production are all crops and livestock products originating in each country. Practically all products are covered, with the main exception of fodder crops. The category of food production includes 82 commodities that are considered edible and that contain nutrients. Accordingly, coffee and tea are excluded along with inedible commodities because, although edible, they have practically no nutritive value. Indices for meat production are computed based on data for production from indigenous animals, which takes account of the meat equivalent of exported live animals but excludes the meat equivalent of imported live animals. For index purposes, annual changes in livestock and poultry numbers or in their average live weight are not taken into account. The indices are calculated from production data presented on a calendar year basis. The only difference with previous issues of the yearbook is that the base period has been shifted from 1989-1991 to 1999-2001; the producer prices consequently also now refer to 1999-2001. The FAO indices may differ from those produced by the countries themselves because of differences in concepts of production, coverage, weights, time reference of data and methods of calculation. Conclusions Means of non-conflict and conflict are different in -average grs production per capita w/o outliers -average annual growth rate w/o outliers but there is not difference in means in average annual growth rate per capita 83

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