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					                       Evaluation of agricultural
gross production value, gross production value per capita and population


     Conflict-affected & non-conflict-affected Sub-Saharan African countries




                                   (DRAFT)




                                                                               Elina Lauriala
                                                                               TCAS
Contents

1.
1. Conflict countries - Angola ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 4
Conflict countries - Burundi......................................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Conflict countries – Central African Republic............................................................................................................................................................. 6
Conflict countries – DR Congo.................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Conflict countries – Congo .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Conflict countries – Cote d’Ivoire.............................................................................................................................................................................. 10
Conflict countries - Eritrea......................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Conflict countries - Ethiopia ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Conflict countries – Guinea........................................................................................................................................................................................ 14
Post-conflict countries – Guinea-Bissau.................................................................................................................................................................... 15
Conflict countries – Liberia........................................................................................................................................................................................ 16
Post-conflict countries – Mozambiq........................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Post-conflict countries – Namibia.............................................................................................................................................................................. 18
Conflict countries – Rwanda ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Conflict countries – Sierra Leone............................................................................................................................................................................... 21
Conflict countries – Uganda....................................................................................................................................................................................... 22
Conflict countries – Zimbabwe .................................................................................................................................................................................. 23
General findings concerning conflict-affected countries: .......................................................................................................................................... 24
Non-conflict countries – Benin .................................................................................................................................................................................. 25
Non-conflict countries –Botswana ............................................................................................................................................................................. 26
Non-conflict countries –Burkina Faso ....................................................................................................................................................................... 27
Non-conflict countries –Cape Verde.......................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Non-conflict countries – Chad ................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
Non-conflict countries – Comoros ............................................................................................................................................................................. 30


                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2
Non-conflict countries – Gabon ................................................................................................................................................................................. 31
Non-conflict countries – Gambia ............................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Non-conflict countries –Ghana .................................................................................................................................................................................. 33
Non-conflict countries – Kenya ................................................................................................................................................................................. 34
Non-conflict countries - Lesotho................................................................................................................................................................................ 35
Non-conflict countries - Madagascar ......................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Non-conflict countries - Malawi ................................................................................................................................................................................ 37
Non-conflict countries - Mali..................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
Non-conflict countries - Mauritania........................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Non-conflict countries - Mauritius............................................................................................................................................................................. 40
Non-conflict countries – Niger................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Non-conflict countries – Nigeria................................................................................................................................................................................ 42
Non-conflict countries – Sao Tome and Principe ...................................................................................................................................................... 43
Non-conflict countries – Senegal ............................................................................................................................................................................... 44
Non-conflict countries – South Africa ....................................................................................................................................................................... 45
Non-conflict countries – Swaziland ........................................................................................................................................................................... 46
Non-conflict countries – Tanzania ............................................................................................................................................................................. 47
Non-conflict countries – Togo ................................................................................................................................................................................... 48
Non-conflict countries – Zambia................................................................................................................................................................................ 49
General findings concerning non- conflict-affected countries:.................................................................................................................................. 50


Findings Annex




                                                                                                                                                                                                                   3
1. Conflict countries - Angola
                                                        GRS Production evoluation in Angola, 1961-2004                                                                                                Agricultural grs production per capita in Angola, 1961-2003


                  1200000                                                                                                                                        160



                                                                                                                                                                 140
                  1000000

                                                                                                                                                                 120

                   800000
                                                                                                                                                                 100




                                                                                                                                              value per capita
 Value in 1000$




                   600000                                                                                                                                        80



                                                                                                                                                                 60
                   400000

                                                                                                                                                                 40

                   200000
                                                                                                                                                                 20



                          0                                                                                                                                       0
                              Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                  Sum    Sum Sum     Sum Sum      Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum
                               of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                              of     of   of     of   of      of   of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of   of     of   of     of   of     of
                              1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                            1961   1963 1965   1967 1969    1971 1973 1975   1977 1979   1981 1983   1985 1987   1989 1991 1993   1995 1997   1999 2001   2003
                                                                                   Year                                                                                                                                               Year



                                                                Population in Angola 1961-2003

                  16000


                  14000



                  12000                                                                                                                                                       Findings
                                                                                                                                                                              *production declined after independence 1975 (conflict), stagnated for
                  10000
                                                                                                                                                                              several years and started to grow again in 1991 (peace treaty)
 Millions




                  8000                                                                                                                                                        *before 1975 the production per capita was in a higher level, but dropped
                                                                                                                                                                              fast after that
                  6000
                                                                                                                                                                              *population growth has been very rapid, so even the production has
                  4000                                                                                                                                                        increased, the population growth has been “eaten” the effect
                                                                                                                                                                              * Average annual growth of:
                  2000
                                                                                                                                                                              population (1961-2004) 2,57 change 178 percent
                     0                                                                                                                                                        value of total production (1961-2004) 0.64
                          Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                           of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                                        value of total production (1999-2004) 4.66
                          1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                  Year
                                                                                                                                                                              * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 97 $



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            4
Conflict countries - Burundi
                                                Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Burundi, 1961-2004

                  800000                                                                                                                                                                           Agricultural grs production per capita in Burundi, 1961-2003

                                                                                                                                                              160
                  700000

                                                                                                                                                              140
                  600000

                                                                                                                                                              120
                  500000
 Value in 1000$




                                                                                                                                                              100




                                                                                                                                           value per capita
                  400000
                                                                                                                                                               80

                  300000
                                                                                                                                                               60

                  200000
                                                                                                                                                               40


                  100000
                                                                                                                                                               20


                      0
                                                                                                                                                               0
                           Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                  Sum    Sum Sum     Sum Sum      Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum
                            of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                              of     of   of     of   of      of   of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of   of     of   of     of   of     of
                           1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                            1961   1963 1965   1967 1969    1971 1973 1975   1977 1979   1981 1983   1985 1987   1989 1991 1993   1995 1997   1999 2001   2003
                                                                                 Year                                                                                                                                              Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         5
                                   Population grow th in Burundi 1961-2003


  8000


  7000


  6000


  5000


  4000


  3000


  2000


   1000


     0
          Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
          of   of   of   of   of    of   of   of   of   of   of    of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
          1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

                                                              Ye a r


Conflict countries – Central African Republic



                                                                                                                          Findings
                                                                                                                          *Before 1993 (conflict) the trendline of gross production was rising.
                                                                                                                          Growht was especially fast 1984-1992.
                                                                                                                          *After the drop in 1993 (continued conflict) the production has been
                                                                                                                          stagnating.
                                                                                                                          * the trend in grs production per capita has been decreasing. There is a
                                                                                                                          drop in 1994 and stagnation after that
                                                                                                                          * population growth has been rapid and production haven’t been able to
                                                                                                                          keep up with it
                                                                                                                          * Average annual growth of:
                                                                                                                          population (1961-2004) 2,09 change 128 percent
                                                                                                                          value of total production (1961-2004) 1.17
                                                                                                                          value of total production (1999-2004) 1.51
                                                                                                                          * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 128 $



                                                                                                                                                                                                     6
                                       Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Central African Republic, 1961-2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Agricultural grs production per capita in Central African Republic, 1961-2003
                 700000

                                                                                                                                                                    180

                 600000
                                                                                                                                                                    160


                 500000                                                                                                                                             140


                                                                                                                                                                    120
Value in 1000$




                 400000




                                                                                                                                                 value per capita
                                                                                                                                                                    100

                 300000
                                                                                                                                                                     80


                                                                                                                                                                     60
                 200000

                                                                                                                                                                     40
                 100000
                                                                                                                                                                     20


                     0                                                                                                                                                   0
                          Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                            Sum    Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum
                           of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                                        of     of   of     of   of     of   of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of   of     of   of     of   of     of
                          1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                                      1961   1963 1965   1967 1969   1971 1973 1975   1977 1979   1981 1983   1985 1987   1989 1991 1993   1995 1997   1999 2001   2003
                                                                                   Year                                                                                                                                                    Year




                                       Population grow th in Central African Republic 1961-2003

                  4500


                  4000
                                                                                                                                                                                    Findings:
                  3500
                                                                                                                                                                                    *production has been growing steadily for whole period.
                  3000
                                                                                                                                                                                    * Production per capita has been stagnating.
                  2500                                                                                                                                                              *Population growth has been eaten the production growth.
                  2000                                                                                                                                                              *conflict has been continuing since the independence 1960, so it is not
                  1500
                                                                                                                                                                                    possible to see clear declines
                                                                                                                                                                                    * Average annual growth of:
                  1000
                                                                                                                                                                                    population (1961-2004) 2,30 change 148 percent
                   500                                                                                                                                                              value of total production (1961-2004) 2.54
                      0                                                                                                                                                             value of total production (1999-2004) 2.47
                          Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                                   * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 148 $
                           of    of   of    of   of    of   of    of    of    of      of       of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                      of
                          1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

                                                                                          Ye a r




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 7
Conflict countries – DR Congo
                                                 Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in DR Congo, 1961-2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Agricultural grs production per capita in DR Congo, 1961-2003
                  4000000
                                                                                                                                                                 120

                  3500000

                                                                                                                                                                 100
                  3000000



                  2500000                                                                                                                                        80
 Value in 1000$




                                                                                                                                              value per capita
                  2000000
                                                                                                                                                                 60


                  1500000

                                                                                                                                                                 40

                  1000000


                                                                                                                                                                 20
                   500000



                          0                                                                                                                                       0
                              Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                  Sum    Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum
                               of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                              of     of   of     of   of     of   of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of   of     of   of     of   of     of
                              1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                            1961   1963 1965   1967 1969   1971 1973 1975   1977 1979   1981 1983   1985 1987   1989 1991 1993   1995 1997   1999 2001   2003
                                                                                   Year                                                                                                                                              Year



                                                          Population growth in DR Congo 1961-2003

                  60000                                                                                                                                                Findings:
                                                                                                                                                                       *production line was increasing until the drop in 1994 (Rwanda crisis??).
                  50000                                                                                                                                                * in one year the production dropped the amount which took eight years to
                                                                                                                                                                       develop
                  40000                                                                                                                                                * after the drop production has been stagnating and haven't been able to
                                                                                                                                                                       reach the same level
 Millions




                  30000                                                                                                                                                * trend in grs production per capita has been slightly decreasing until the big
                                                                                                                                                                       drop in 1994. After that the decline has been accelerating.
                  20000                                                                                                                                                * Average annual growth of:
                                                                                                                                                                       population (1961-2004) 2,98 change 233 percent
                  10000                                                                                                                                                value of total production (1961-2004) 1.46
                                                                                                                                                                       value of total production (1999-2004) -0.82
                     0                                                                                                                                                 * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 88 $
                          Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                           of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                          1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           8
Conflict countries – Congo

                                               Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Republic of Congo, 1961-2004

                   250000                                                                                                                                                                      Agricultural grs production per capita in Republic of Congo, 1961-2003

                                                                                                                                                                   120


                   200000
                                                                                                                                                                   100



                   150000
  Value in 1000$




                                                                                                                                                                   80




                                                                                                                                                value per capita
                                                                                                                                                                   60
                   100000


                                                                                                                                                                   40

                    50000

                                                                                                                                                                   20



                           0
                                                                                                                                                                    0
                               Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                                                                                                                                                                         Sum    Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum
                                of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                               of     of   of     of   of     of   of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of   of     of   of     of   of     of
                               1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                             1961   1963 1965   1967 1969   1971 1973 1975   1977 1979   1981 1983   1985 1987   1989 1991 1993   1995 1997   1999 2001   2003
                                                                                         Year                                                                                                                                          Year



                                                       Population growth in Republic of Congo 1961-2003

                   4000


                   3500



                   3000                                                                                                                         Findings:
                                                                                                                                                * Production has been increasing the whole period. Not even the
                   2500
                                                                                                                                                start of a civil war has had a major effect.
 Millions




                   2000                                                                                                                         * grs production per capita has been steadily decreasing.
                                                                                                                                                * the change in amount of population has been one of the
                   1500
                                                                                                                                                highest in SSA
                   1000                                                                                                                         * Average annual growth of:
                                                                                                                                                population (1961-2004) 3.19 change 262 percent
                   500
                                                                                                                                                value of total production (1961-2004) 1.61
                     0                                                                                                                          value of total production (1999-2004) -1.94
                          Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum            Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum            Sum Sum
                           of   of     of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of     of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of     of   of    * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 74 $
                          1961 1963   1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981   1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999   2001 2003
                                                                                 Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             9
Conflict countries – Cote d’Ivoire
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Agricultural grs production per capita in Cote d'Ivoire, 1961-2003

                                                                                                                                                                  300
                                                 Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Cote d'Ivoire, 1961-2004

                   4500000
                                                                                                                                                                  250
                   4000000


                   3500000
                                                                                                                                                                  200




                                                                                                                                               value per capita
                   3000000
  Value in 1000$




                                                                                                                                                                  150
                   2500000


                   2000000
                                                                                                                                                                  100
                   1500000


                   1000000                                                                                                                                        50

                    500000

                                                                                                                                                                   0
                           0
                                                                                                                                                                        Sum    Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum
                               Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                                of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                                                                                                                                                                         of     of   of     of   of     of   of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of   of     of   of     of   of     of
                               1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                            1961   1963 1965   1967 1969   1971 1973 1975   1977 1979   1981 1983   1985 1987   1989 1991 1993   1995 1997   1999 2001   2003
                                                                                       Year                                                                                                                                           Year



                                                                                                                                                                         Findings:
                                                        Population growth in Cote d'Ivoire 1961-2003                                                                     * production grew very well until the start of a conflict in 1999.
                   18000
                                                                                                                                                                         * Growth has been very good between 1961-2004 (3.67) and even
                   16000
                                                                                                                                                                         better between 1961-1998 (3.96) before the conflict.
                                                                                                                                                                         * grs production per capita reach its peak 1975 and started to fall after
                   14000
                                                                                                                                                                         that. After the bottom of 1994, gdp increased until the the following
                   12000
                                                                                                                                                                         year of conflict in 2000.
                   10000                                                                                                                                                 * population growth started to accelerate after the mid 70's and that
 Millions




                    8000                                                                                                                                                 was also the time when grs production per capita started to decline
                    6000
                                                                                                                                                                         * Average annual growth of:
                                                                                                                                                                         population (1961-2004) 3.75 change 323 percent
                    4000
                                                                                                                                                                         value of total production (1961-2004) 3.67
                    2000
                                                                                                                                                                         value of total production (1999-2004) -2.66
                      0
                           Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                                                                                                                                                                         * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 225 $
                            of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                           1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            10
Conflict countries - Eritrea
                                              Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Ethiopia PDR and Eritrea, 1961-2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Eritrea, 1993-2004

                    4000000
                                                                                                                                                                                      200000


                    3500000                                                                                                                                                           180000


                                                                                                                                                                                      160000
                    3000000

                                                                                                                                                                                      140000
                    2500000
   Value in 1000$




                                                                                                                                                                                      120000




                                                                                                                                                                     Value in 1000$
                                                                                                                                            Eritrea
                    2000000
                                                                                                                                            Ethiopia PDR                              100000


                    1500000                                                                                                                                                           80000


                                                                                                                                                                                      60000
                    1000000

                                                                                                                                                                                      40000
                     500000
                                                                                                                                                                                      20000

                            0                                                                                                                                                             0
                                Sum    Sum      Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum     Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum                                                       Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                                 of     of       of     of     of     of     of     of      of     of     of     of     of     of     of                                                        of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                                1961   1964     1967   1970   1973   1976   1979   1982    1985   1988   1991   1994   1997   2000   2003                                                      1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                    Year                                                                                                                                                              Year



                                                       Agricultural grs production per capita in Eritrea, 1961-2003                                                                                                       Population growth in Eritrea 1961-2003

                    60                                                                                                                                            4500


                                                                                                                                                                  4000
                    50
                                                                                                                                                                  3500


                    40                                                                                                                                            3000
 value per capita




                                                                                                                                                                  2500
                                                                                                                                                       Millions




                    30
                                                                                                                                                                  2000


                    20                                                                                                                                            1500


                                                                                                                                                                  1000

                    10
                                                                                                                                                                  500


                     0                                                                                                                                              0
                         Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                                 Sum Sum          Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum             Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum            Sum Sum
                          of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                                             of   of          of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of      of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of     of   of
                         1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                                           1961 1963        1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981    1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999   2001 2003
                                                                                      Year                                                                                                                                                     Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               11
Findings:
* The value of the production almost doubeled in five years (93 to 98)
* After the start of a conflict production dropped almost as much in four years (98 to 2002)
* grs production per capita - line looks almost the same as production line except the drop is steeper
* average population growth 1993-2003 has been 2.90 and average annual growth 0.18 with very big fluctuations
* population has grown 31% in ten years
* Average annual growth of:
population (1993-2003) 2.90 change 31 percent
value of total production (1993-2004) 0.18
value of total production (1999-2004) -5.09
* Average production per capita (1961-2004) 39 $




                                                                                                                12
Conflict countries - Ethiopia

                                           Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Ethiopia PDR and Ethiopia, 1961-2004

                  5000000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Agricultural grs production per capita in Ethiopia, 1993-2003
                  4500000

                                                                                                                                                                                120
                  4000000


                  3500000                                                                                                                                                       100


                  3000000
 Value in 1000$




                                                                                                                                                                                 80




                                                                                                                                                             value per capita
                                                                                                                                              Ethiopia
                  2500000
                                                                                                                                              Ethiopia PDR                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Country
                                                                                                                                                                                 60
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Ethiopia
                  2000000

                                                                                                                                                                                 40
                  1500000


                  1000000                                                                                                                                                        20


                  500000
                                                                                                                                                                                 0




                                                                                                                                                                                      Sum of 1961
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sum of 1962
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sum of 1963
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Sum of 1964
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sum of 1965
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Sum of 1966
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sum of 1967
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Sum of 1968
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Sum of 1969
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sum of 1970
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sum of 1971
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Sum of 1972
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sum of 1973
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Sum of 1974
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sum of 1975
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Sum of 1976
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Sum of 1977
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sum of 1978
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sum of 1979
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Sum of 1980
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sum of 1981
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Sum of 1982
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sum of 1983
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Sum of 1984
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Sum of 1985
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sum of 1986
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sum of 1987
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Sum of 1988
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sum of 1989
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Sum of 1990
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sum of 1991
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Sum of 1992
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Sum of 1993
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sum of 1994
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sum of 1995
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Sum of 1996
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sum of 1997
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Sum of 1998
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sum of 1999
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Sum of 2000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Sum of 2001
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sum of 2002
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sum of 2003
                          0
                              Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                               of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                              1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Year
                                                                                   Year
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Data




                                                                  Population growth in Ethiopia 1961-2003

                  80000
                                                                                                                                                         Findings:
                  70000                                                                                                                                  * the trend in production has been increasing. The biggest drops have
                                                                                                                                                         been between 1983-85 (drought) and 1991-93 (??).
                  60000
                                                                                                                                                         * grs production per capita has been declining most in the period of 1980-
                  50000                                                                                                                                  1994, after that it started to rise again.
                                                                                                                                                         * after the separation (1993-2004) the average annual production growth
 Millions




                  40000
                                                                                                                                                         has been 3.68
                  30000                                                                                                                                  * Average annual growth of:
                                                                                                                                                         population (1993-2003) 2.55 change 186 percent
                  20000
                                                                                                                                                         value of total production (1993-2004) 1.30
                  10000                                                                                                                                  value of total production (1999-2004) 2.40
                                                                                                                                                         * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 65 $
                      0
                          Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                           of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                          1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                      Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               13
Conflict countries – Guinea

                                                        Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Guinea, 1961-2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Agricultural grs production per capita in Guinea, 1961-2003

                  1200000
                                                                                                                                                                                                            160


                                                                                                                                                                                                            140
                  1000000


                                                                                                                                                                                                            120

                  800000
                                                                                                                                                                                                            100
 Value in 1000$




                                                                                                                                                                                         value per capita
                  600000                                                                                                                                                                                    80


                                                                                                                                                                                                            60
                  400000

                                                                                                                                                                                                            40

                  200000
                                                                                                                                                                                                            20


                       0                                                                                                                                                                                     0
                            Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                                                               Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                             of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                                                                           of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                            1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                                                                         1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                                      Year                                                                                                                                                               Year




                                                                             P o pu l a t i on gr o wt h i n Gu i n e a 19 6 1- 2 0 0 3



                            9000


                            8000                                                                                                                                                                                   Findings:
                            7000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   * After the stagnation of 1961-1987 production started to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   increase rapidly 1988
                            6000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   * Conflict (starting 1999) haven't dropped the production
                            5000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   * grs production dropped between 1976 and 1988 when it
                            4000                                                                                                                                                                                   started to grow again.
                            3000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   * Average annual growth of:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   population (1993-2003) 2.47 change 165 percent
                            2000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   value of total production (1993-2004) 1.95
                            1000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   value of total production (1999-2004) 1.86
                              0                                                                                                                                                                                    * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 118 $
                                   Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum      Sum    Sum   Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum
                                    of     of     of     of     of     of      of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of
                                   1961   1963   1965   1967   1969   1971    1973   1975   1977   1979   1981   1983   1985   1987   1989   1991   1993   1995   1997   1999   2001   2003

                                                                                                             Y ear




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  14
Post-conflict countries – Guinea-Bissau
                                                                                                                                                                                             Agricultural grs production per capita in Guinea-Bissau, 1961-2003
                                                Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Guinea-Bissau, 1961-2004

                                                                                                                                                                    160
                   180000


                   160000                                                                                                                                           140



                   140000                                                                                                                                           120


                   120000
                                                                                                                                                                    100




                                                                                                                                                 value per capita
  Value in 1000$




                   100000
                                                                                                                                                                     80

                    80000

                                                                                                                                                                     60
                    60000

                                                                                                                                                                     40
                    40000


                    20000                                                                                                                                            20


                          0
                                                                                                                                                                      0
                              Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                                                                                                                                                                          Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                               of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                                 of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                              1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                               1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                     Year                                                                                                                                       Year




                                                         Population growth in Guinea-Bissau 1961-2003

                   1600



                   1400
                                                                                                                                                                                 Findings:
                   1200                                                                                                                                                          * Production started to increase in the beginning of the
                   1000
                                                                                                                                                                                 70's and it has almost tripeled in 30 years.
                                                                                                                                                                                 * Since 1965 the production per capita has stagnated in
 Millions




                    800
                                                                                                                                                                                 between 100-120 dollars.
                    600                                                                                                                                                          * Average annual growth of:
                                                                                                                                                                                 population (1961-2004) 2.63, change 169 percent
                    400
                                                                                                                                                                                 value of total production (1961-2004) 2.38
                    200                                                                                                                                                          value of total production (1999-2004) 0.98
                     0
                                                                                                                                                                                 * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 112 $
                          Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum             Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum            Sum Sum
                           of   of     of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of      of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of     of   of
                          1961 1963   1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981    1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999   2001 2003
                                                                                   Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          15
Conflict countries – Liberia

                                                  Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Liberia, 1961-2004                                                                                  Agricultural grs production per capita in Liberia, 1961-2003

                                                                                                                                                                   140
                  300000


                                                                                                                                                                   120
                  250000


                                                                                                                                                                   100
                  200000




                                                                                                                                                value per capita
 Value in 1000$




                                                                                                                                                                    80

                  150000

                                                                                                                                                                    60


                  100000
                                                                                                                                                                    40


                   50000
                                                                                                                                                                    20



                         0                                                                                                                                           0
                             Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                     Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                              of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                                 of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                             1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                               1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                    Year                                                                                                                                        Year



                                                           Population growth in Liberia 1961-2003                                              Findings:
                  4000                                                                                                                         * When the conflict started 1989 the production decreased drastically 43% in two years
                                                                                                                                               * After the peace treaty 1995 Liberia was able to reach the same level of production in
                  3500
                                                                                                                                               five years
                  3000                                                                                                                         * After 1995 the production has been stagnating (continuing conflict)
                                                                                                                                               * Grs production per capita rise slightly in the 60's and started to go down in the 70's.
                  2500
                                                                                                                                               The biggest drop happened in 1989 (conflict). Between 1989-1995 the grs production
 Millions




                  2000                                                                                                                         declined 46 percent, between 1995-1997 Liberia was able to increase the grs per capita
                                                                                                                                               by 27 percent. After that it has been stagnated and started to go down.
                  1500
                                                                                                                                               * The effect of a conflict can be seen in the population curve. It is not going straight up
                  1000                                                                                                                         like usually in SSA countries.
                                                                                                                                               * Average annual growth of:
                  500
                                                                                                                                               population (1993-2003) 2.36 change 211 percent
                    0                                                                                                                          value of total production (1993-2004) 1.05
                         Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum            Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum            Sum Sum
                          of   of
                         1961 1963
                                      of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                                     1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981
                                                                                     of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                                                                                    1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
                                                                                                                                    of   of
                                                                                                                                   2001 2003
                                                                                                                                               value of total production (1999-2004) -0.05
                                                                                 Year                                                          * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 99 $




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         16
Post-conflict countries – Mozambiq

                                                 Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Mozambiq, 1961-2004


                   1400000
                                                                                                                                                                                             Agricultural grs production per capita in Mozambique , 1961-2003


                                                                                                                                                                   120

                   1200000


                                                                                                                                                                   100
                   1000000


                                                                                                                                                                    80
  Value in 1000$




                    800000




                                                                                                                                                value per capita
                                                                                                                                                                    60
                    600000



                    400000                                                                                                                                          40




                    200000                                                                                                                                          20




                            0                                                                                                                                        0
                                Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                  Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                                 of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                              of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                                1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                            1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                     Year                                                                                                                                      Year



                                                            Population growth in Mozambique 1961-2003

                   20000


                   18000
                                                                                                                                                                                     Findings:
                   16000
                                                                                                                                                                                     * Production grew until 1973 and sunk with some exceptions until 1992
                                                                                                                                                                                     (peace treaty)
                   14000
                                                                                                                                                                                     After that the growth has been rapid except the year of 2000 (floods).
                   12000
                                                                                                                                                                                     * Grs production per capita grew until 1973 (??), when it started to sunk and
 Millions




                   10000
                                                                                                                                                                                     reach its bottom 1992 (peace treaty).
                   8000                                                                                                                                                              Growth continued until the major floods in 2000, but it haven't been able to
                   6000                                                                                                                                                              reach the level of the 60's.
                   4000                                                                                                                                                              * Population has grown steadily except the stagnation between 1985-1990
                   2000
                                                                                                                                                                                     * Average annual growth of:
                      0
                                                                                                                                                                                     population (1993-2003) 2.11 change 143 percent
                           Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                            of   of   of   of   of
                                                        Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                                                         of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                                                                                                                                                                                     value of total production (1993-2004) 0.66
                           1961 1963 1965 1967 1969     1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                     Year
                                                                                                                                                                                     value of total production (1999-2004) -1.12
                                                                                                                                                                                     * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 75 $




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         17
Post-conflict countries – Namibia

                                                                                                                                                                                                 Agricultural grs production per capita in Namibia , 1961-2003
                                                  Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Namibia, 1961-2004

                                                                                                                                                                    450
                   400000


                                                                                                                                                                    400
                   350000

                                                                                                                                                                    350
                   300000

                                                                                                                                                                    300

                   250000




                                                                                                                                                 value per capita
  Value in 1000$




                                                                                                                                                                    250

                   200000
                                                                                                                                                                    200

                   150000
                                                                                                                                                                    150


                   100000
                                                                                                                                                                    100


                    50000                                                                                                                                            50


                           0                                                                                                                                          0
                               Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                    Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                                of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                                of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                               1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                              1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                     Year                                                                                                                                        Year




                                                                                                                                                                     Findings
                                                             Population growth in Namibia 1961-2003                                                                  * There has been three big drops in production 1975, 1983 and 1997.
                   2500
                                                                                                                                                                     Between and after these drops production has grown, but never
                                                                                                                                                                     reached the level of the peak in 1972-1974.
                                                                                                                                                                     Because of the major drops, the average annual production growth
                   2000
                                                                                                                                                                     rate is only 0.32
                                                                                                                                                                     * The trend in grs production per capita is decreasing. It is possible to
                   1500
                                                                                                                                                                     see three big drops 1975, 1983 and 1997.
 Millions




                                                                                                                                                                     The difference with the production line is that after the drop the line
                   1000                                                                                                                                              doesn't arise, but stagnates.
                                                                                                                                                                     Today's level is less than half of the level in the 60's and mid-70's
                   500
                                                                                                                                                                     * Average annual growth of:
                                                                                                                                                                     population (1993-2003) 2.84 change 210 percent
                                                                                                                                                                     value of total production (1993-2004) 0.32
                     0
                          Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum             Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum            Sum Sum                         value of total production (1999-2004) -1.55
                           of   of     of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of      of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of     of   of
                          1961 1963   1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981    1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999   2001 2003                       * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 264 $
                                                                                   Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          18
Source: FAO Agrometeorology series. Number 9. Gommes, R & Petrassi, F, 1994




                                                                              19
Conflict countries – Rwanda

                                                                                                                                                                                                     Agricultural grs production per capita in Rwanda , 1961-2003

                                                                                                                                                                      250
                                                  Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Rwanda, 1961-2004

                  1600000

                                                                                                                                                                      200
                  1400000


                  1200000
                                                                                                                                                                      150




                                                                                                                                                   value per capita
                  1000000
 Value in 1000$




                   800000
                                                                                                                                                                      100

                   600000


                   400000                                                                                                                                             50


                   200000


                          0                                                                                                                                            0
                              Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                       Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                               of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                                   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                              1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                                 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                   Year                                                                                                                                         Year




                                                             Population growth in Rwanda 1961-2003
                                                                                                                                                                                      Findings:
                                                                                                                                                                                      * Production grew until 1992 (civil war 1990, genocide 1994) when it dropped
                  9000
                                                                                                                                                                                      sharply for two years
                  8000
                                                                                                                                                                                      Growth was steady in the 60's and 70's, but in the 80's the value of production
                  7000                                                                                                                                                                fluctuated
                  6000
                                                                                                                                                                                      Rwanda has been able to reach the level of the 90's in eight years
                                                                                                                                                                                      * Except the drops in the 60's, the grs production per capita did not change
                  5000
                                                                                                                                                                                      dramaticlly in 70's and 80's
 Millions




                  4000                                                                                                                                                                The major drop happened after the start of a civil war 1992-1994. Grs
                  3000                                                                                                                                                                production per capita have not reached the same level as before the conflict.
                  2000
                                                                                                                                                                                      * The effect of a civil war and genocide is clearly seen in population curve
                                                                                                                                                                                      * Average annual growth of:
                  1000
                                                                                                                                                                                      population (1993-2003) 2.27 change 184 percent
                    0
                         Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum              Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum              Sum Sum
                                                                                                                                                                                      value of total production (1993-2004) 2.21
                          of   of
                         1961 1963
                                      of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                                     1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981
                                                                                       of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                                                                                      1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
                                                                                                                                        of   of
                                                                                                                                       2001 2003
                                                                                                                                                                                      value of total production (1999-2004) -3.63
                                                                                   Year                                                                                               * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 159 $




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            20
Conflict countries – Sierra Leone

                                                       Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Sierra Leone, 1961-2004                                                                                                           Agricultural grs production pe r capita in Sie rra Leone, 1961-2003


                    400000                                                                                                                                                                              120



                    350000
                                                                                                                                                                                                        100

                    300000

                                                                                                                                                                                                         80
                    250000
   Value in 1000$




                                                                                                                                                                                     value per capita
                    200000                                                                                                                                                                               60


                    150000
                                                                                                                                                                                                         40

                    100000


                                                                                                                                                                                                         20
                     50000


                            0
                                                                                                                                                                                                          0
                                Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                                 of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                                                                                                                                                                                                               of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                                1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                                                                 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                                          Year                                                                                                                                                     Year




                                                                     Population growth in Sierra Leone 1961-2003                                                                     Findings:
                    6000
                                                                                                                                                                                     * Production grew steadily without major fluctuations until 1991 (civil
                                                                                                                                                                                     war)
                    5000                                                                                                                                                             The biggest drop happened between 1997 and 2000. Production haven't
                                                                                                                                                                                     been able to reach the level before the war.
                    4000                                                                                                                                                             * Grs production per capita have been slightly decreased until the big
                                                                                                                                                                                     drop in 1997.
 Millions




                    3000                                                                                                                                                             The level after the drop is the lowist ever in 43 years.
                                                                                                                                                                                     * Average annual growth of:
                    2000
                                                                                                                                                                                     population (1993-2003) 1.80 change 118 percent
                                                                                                                                                                                     value of total production (1993-2004) 0.90
                    1000
                                                                                                                                                                                     value of total production (1999-2004) 2.47
                      0
                                                                                                                                                                                     * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 83 $
                           Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum
                            of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of
                           1961   1963   1965   1967   1969   1971   1973   1975   1977   1979   1981   1983   1985   1987   1989   1991   1993   1995   1997   1999   2001   2003
                                                                                                   Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              21
Conflict countries – Uganda

                                                Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Uganda, 1961-2004                                                                                   Agricultural grs production per capita in Uganda, 1961-2003

                  6000000                                                                                                                                        400


                                                                                                                                                                 350
                  5000000

                                                                                                                                                                 300

                  4000000
                                                                                                                                                                 250
 Value in 1000$




                                                                                                                                              value per capita
                  3000000
                                                                                                                                                                 200


                                                                                                                                                                 150
                  2000000


                                                                                                                                                                 100
                  1000000
                                                                                                                                                                 50


                          0
                                                                                                                                                                  0
                              Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                                                                                                                                                                       Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                               of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                              of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                              1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                            1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                   Year                                                                                                                                      Year




                                                              Population growth in Uganda 1961-2003                                                                       Findings:
                  30000
                                                                                                                                                                          * Production grew rapidly between 1965-1970, in the 70's (Idi Amin
                                                                                                                                                                          years 1971-79) the production kept the high level until the drop in
                  25000
                                                                                                                                                                          1978 (conflict).
                                                                                                                                                                          There is not any clear sign of recent conflict in north Uganda in the
                  20000
                                                                                                                                                                          production curve (1990->)
                                                                                                                                                                          After the conflict the production has been growing steadily
                                                                                                                                                                          * Grs production per capita did very well until the drop in 1978,
 Millions




                  15000
                                                                                                                                                                          stagnation since
                  10000
                                                                                                                                                                          * Average annual growth of:
                                                                                                                                                                          population 3.14 (1961-2004) change 268
                  5000
                                                                                                                                                                          value of total production 1.93 (1961-2004)
                                                                                                                                                                          value of total production 10.72 (1999-2004)
                     0
                                                                                                                                                                          * Average production per capita (1961-2004) 236 $
                          Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                           of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                          1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                      Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       22
Conflict countries – Zimbabwe

                                                Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Zimbabwe, 1961-2004                                                                               Agricultural grs production per capita in Zimbabwe, 1961-2003

                  2000000                                                                                                                                        250


                  1800000


                  1600000                                                                                                                                        200


                  1400000


                  1200000                                                                                                                                        150
 Value in 1000$




                                                                                                                                              value per capita
                  1000000


                   800000                                                                                                                                        100


                   600000


                   400000                                                                                                                                         50


                   200000


                          0                                                                                                                                        0
                              Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                  Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                               of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                              of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                              1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                            1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                   Year                                                                                                                                     Year




                                                            Population growth in Zimbabwe 1961-2003

                  14000



                  12000
                                                                                                                                                                                Findings:
                  10000
                                                                                                                                                                                * The trend in production is increasing with high flucutations.
                                                                                                                                                                                The fluctuations has increased after the beginning of the 80's (independence &
                   8000                                                                                                                                                         unstability 1980->)
 Millions




                                                                                                                                                                                The start of a landreform 2000 is clearly seen in the curve.
                   6000
                                                                                                                                                                                * The grs production trend is decreasing with high fluctuations.
                   4000                                                                                                                                                         The grs production curve has big drops and some, but not all of them, are right after
                                                                                                                                                                                the conflict situation.
                   2000
                                                                                                                                                                                For example the last big drop is after the start of a violent landreform.
                     0
                                                                                                                                                                                *Average annual growth:
                          Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                           of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                                                                                                                                                                                population is 3.18 (1961-2004) change 236 percent
                          1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                     Year
                                                                                                                                                                                value of total production 2.03 (1961-2004)
                                                                                                                                                                                value of total production -14.79 (1961-2004)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       23
General findings concerning conflict-affected countries:

● the effects of a conflict can be seen in production & production / capita curves
● population growth exceeds the production growth, so the production per capita decreases
● most of the countries have their production / capita level lower than in the 60’s -> only three out of 17 countries has the
pr. / capita in a same or higher level than in the 60’s
● in some cases agricultural production recovers suprisingly fast after the conflict situation and in other cases production
stagnates and don’t reach the previous level




                                                                                                                                24
Non-conflict countries – Benin

                                                        GRS Production evaluation in Benin, 1961-2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Agricultural grs production per capita in Benin, 1961-2003

                  1800000
                                                                                                                                                                    300

                  1600000

                                                                                                                                                                    250
                  1400000


                  1200000
                                                                                                                                                                    200
 Value in 1000$




                                                                                                                                                 value per capita
                  1000000

                                                                                                                                                                    150
                  800000


                  600000                                                                                                                                            100


                  400000
                                                                                                                                                                    50
                  200000


                         0                                                                                                                                           0
                             Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                      Sum    Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum
                              of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                                  of     of   of     of   of     of   of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of   of     of   of     of   of     of
                             1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                                1961   1963 1965   1967 1969   1971 1973 1975   1977 1979   1981 1983   1985 1987   1989 1991 1993   1995 1997   1999 2001   2003
                                                                                  Year                                                                                                                                                  Year




                                                             Population growth in Benin 1961-2003

                  8000



                  7000



                  6000


                  5000                                                                                                                                                           Findings:
                                                                                                                                                                                 * Production started to increase rapidly in the beginning of the 80's
 Millions




                  4000
                                                                                                                                                                                 * Production / capita started to increase also in the beginning of the
                  3000                                                                                                                                                           80's, but not as sharply as production
                  2000
                                                                                                                                                                                 * Average annual growth of:
                                                                                                                                                                                 population 2.74 (1961-2004)
                  1000                                                                                                                                                           value of total production 4.29 (1961-2004)
                     0
                                                                                                                                                                                 value of total production 6.92 (1999-2004)
                         Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum             Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum             Sum Sum
                          of   of     of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of      of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of      of   of
                         1961 1963   1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981    1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999    2001 2003
                                                                                  Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              25
Non-conflict countries –Botswana

                                                      GRS Production evoluation in Botswana, 1961-2004                                                                                           Agricultural grs production per capita in Botswana, 1961-2003


                  200000                                                                                                                                          250


                  180000


                  160000                                                                                                                                          200


                  140000


                  120000                                                                                                                                          150




                                                                                                                                               value per capita
 Value in 1000$




                  100000


                   80000                                                                                                                                          100


                   60000


                   40000                                                                                                                                           50


                   20000


                         0                                                                                                                                         0
                             Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                    Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                              of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                                of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                             1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                              1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                  Year                                                                                                                                      Year




                                                           Population growth in Botswana 1961-2003

                  2000


                  1800


                  1600


                  1400
                                                                                                                                                                        Findings:
                  1200
                                                                                                                                                                        * Production increased slowly with fluctuations until
 Millions




                  1000
                                                                                                                                                                        1995. After that it has declined and stagnated.
                   800                                                                                                                                                  * Production per capita has decreased to the half of the
                   600                                                                                                                                                  level it had in the 60's
                   400                                                                                                                                                  * Average annual growth of:
                   200                                                                                                                                                  population 3.09 (1961-2004)
                     0                                                                                                                                                  value of total production 0.82 (1961-2004) growth of
                         Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum            Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum            Sum Sum
                          of   of     of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of     of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of     of   of                             value of total production 1.98 (1999-2004) reasonst:
                         1961 1963   1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981   1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999   2001 2003
                                                                                  Year                                                                                  exports? Hiv-epidemic?




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        26
Non-conflict countries –Burkina Faso

                                                      GRS Production evoluation in Burkina Faso, 1961-2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Agricultural grs production per capita in Burkina Faso, 1961-2003
                   1800000
                                                                                                                                                                  140

                   1600000

                                                                                                                                                                  120
                   1400000

                                                                                                                                                                  100
                   1200000
  Value in 1000$




                                                                                                                                               value per capita
                   1000000                                                                                                                                         80


                    800000
                                                                                                                                                                   60

                    600000

                                                                                                                                                                   40
                    400000

                                                                                                                                                                   20
                    200000


                           0                                                                                                                                       0
                               Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                  Sum    Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum
                                of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                              of     of   of     of   of     of   of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of   of     of   of     of   of     of
                               1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                            1961   1963 1965   1967 1969   1971 1973 1975   1977 1979   1981 1983   1985 1987   1989 1991 1993   1995 1997   1999 2001   2003
                                                                                       Year                                                                                                                                           Year




                                                        Population growth in Burkina Faso 1961-2003

                   14000



                   12000
                                                                                                                                                        Findings:
                   10000                                                                                                                                * Production started to increase rapidly in 1984 after long period of
                                                                                                                                                        stagnation.
                   8000
                                                                                                                                                        There was a drop in 2000, but country recovered immediately.
 Millions




                   6000
                                                                                                                                                        * Production per capita increased fast in the middle of the 80's. It
                                                                                                                                                        has kept increasing but slower and with more fluctuations.
                   4000                                                                                                                                 * Population growth has accelerated since the middle of the 80's.
                                                                                                                                                        * Average annual growth of:
                   2000
                                                                                                                                                        population 2.56 (1961-2004) change 186 percent.
                      0
                                                                                                                                                        value of total production 3.78 (1961-2004)
                           Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                            of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                                                                                                                                                        value of total production 7.14 (1999-2004)
                           1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            27
Non-conflict countries –Cape Verde

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Agricultural grs production per capita in Cape Verde, 1961-2003
                                                     Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Cape Verde, 1961-2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                     80
                  35000

                                                                                                                                                                                                     70
                  30000

                                                                                                                                                                                                     60
                  25000

                                                                                                                                                                                                     50




                                                                                                                                                                                  value per capita
 Value in 1000$




                  20000
                                                                                                                                                                                                     40

                  15000
                                                                                                                                                                                                     30


                  10000
                                                                                                                                                                                                     20


                   5000                                                                                                                                                                              10



                        0                                                                                                                                                                            0
                            Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                                                       Sum    Sum     Sum    Sum    Sum Sum     Sum    Sum    Sum Sum     Sum    Sum    Sum Sum     Sum    Sum    Sum Sum     Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum
                             of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                                                                   of     of      of     of     of   of     of     of     of   of     of     of     of   of     of     of     of   of     of     of     of     of
                            1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                                                                 1961   1963    1965   1967   1969 1971   1973   1975   1977 1979   1981   1983   1985 1987   1989   1991   1993 1995   1997   1999   2001   2003
                                                                                                     Year                                                                                                                                                                      Year



                                                                  Population growth in Cape Verde 1961-2003

                  500


                  450


                  400


                  350                                                                                                                                                                                                   Findings:
                  300                                                                                                                                                                                                   * Production started to increase in the beginning of the 80's.
 Millions




                  250                                                                                                                                                                                                   Trend is still increasing with high fluctuations.
                  200                                                                                                                                                                                                   * Production per capita follows similar pattern as total
                  150
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        production, except there has been less growth in the 90's
                  100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        * Average annual growth of:
                  50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        population (1961-2004) 1.79
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        value of total production (1961-2004) 2.74
                   0
                        Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum                                          value of total production (1999-2004) -1.38
                         of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of
                        1961   1963   1965   1967   1969   1971   1973   1975   1977   1979   1981   1983   1985   1987   1989   1991   1993   1995   1997   1999   2001   2003
                                                                                                Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             28
Non-conflict countries – Chad

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Agricultural grs production per capita in Chad, 1961-2003
                                                       Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Chad, 1961-2004

                                                                                                                                                                                               180
                  1200000

                                                                                                                                                                                               160

                  1000000
                                                                                                                                                                                               140


                                                                                                                                                                                               120
                   800000




                                                                                                                                                                            value per capita
 Value in 1000$




                                                                                                                                                                                               100

                   600000
                                                                                                                                                                                                80



                   400000                                                                                                                                                                       60


                                                                                                                                                                                                40

                   200000
                                                                                                                                                                                                20


                          0                                                                                                                                                                     0
                              Sum Sum Sum Sum        Sum Sum Sum Sum             Sum Sum Sum Sum          Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                    Sum    Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum
                               of   of   of   of      of   of   of   of           of   of   of   of        of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                                            of     of   of     of   of     of   of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of   of     of   of     of   of     of
                              1961 1963 1965 1967    1969 1971 1973 1975         1977 1979 1981 1983      1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                                          1961   1963 1965   1967 1969   1971 1973 1975   1977 1979   1981 1983   1985 1987   1989 1991 1993   1995 1997   1999 2001   2003
                                                                                                   Year                                                                                                                                                            Year




                                                                    Population growth in Chad 1961-2003

                  10000


                  9000


                  8000                                                                                                                                                                                 Findings:
                  7000
                                                                                                                                                                                                       * Production started to increase 1984. The biggest drops have
                  6000
                                                                                                                                                                                                       been 1993 (?) and 2000 (drought).
                                                                                                                                                                                                       * Production per capita trend was decreasing until the middle
 Millions




                  5000
                                                                                                                                                                                                       of the 80's. After that it has been slightly increasing.
                  4000                                                                                                                                                                                 Biggest drops have been 1993 and 2000 (drought).
                  3000                                                                                                                                                                                 * Population growth has accelerated since the middle of the
                  2000
                                                                                                                                                                                                       80's.
                  1000
                                                                                                                                                                                                       * Average annual growth of:
                                                                                                                                                                                                       population (1961-2004) 2.43
                     0
                          Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum Sum     Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum Sum     Sum    Sum    Sum Sum     Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum Sum     Sum    Sum    Sum                               value of total production (1961-2004) 1.92
                           of
                          1961
                                  of
                                 1963
                                         of
                                        1965
                                                of   of
                                               1967 1969
                                                            of
                                                           1971
                                                                   of
                                                                  1973
                                                                          of
                                                                         1975
                                                                                 of   of
                                                                                1977 1979
                                                                                             of
                                                                                            1981
                                                                                                    of
                                                                                                   1983
                                                                                                           of   of
                                                                                                          1985 1987
                                                                                                                       of
                                                                                                                      1989
                                                                                                                              of
                                                                                                                             1991
                                                                                                                                     of
                                                                                                                                    1993
                                                                                                                                            of   of
                                                                                                                                           1995 1997
                                                                                                                                                        of
                                                                                                                                                       1999
                                                                                                                                                               of
                                                                                                                                                              2001
                                                                                                                                                                      of
                                                                                                                                                                     2003                              value of total production (1999-2004) 2.84
                                                                                              Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         29
Non-conflict countries – Comoros

                                                                                                                                                                                                                Agricultural grs production per capita in Comoros, 1961-2003
                                                   Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Comoros, 1961-2004
                                                                                                                                                                               100

                  45000
                                                                                                                                                                               90

                  40000
                                                                                                                                                                               80

                  35000
                                                                                                                                                                               70

                  30000
                                                                                                                                                                               60




                                                                                                                                                            value per capita
 Value in 1000$




                  25000                                                                                                                                                        50

                  20000                                                                                                                                                        40


                  15000                                                                                                                                                        30


                  10000                                                                                                                                                        20


                   5000                                                                                                                                                        10


                        0                                                                                                                                                       0
                            Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                                  Sum    Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum
                             of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                                              of     of   of     of   of     of   of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of   of     of   of     of   of     of
                            1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                                            1961   1963 1965   1967 1969   1971 1973 1975   1977 1979   1981 1983   1985 1987   1989 1991 1993   1995 1997   1999 2001   2003
                                                                                        Year                                                                                                                                                       Year



                                                              Population growth in Comoros 1961-2003

                  900


                  800


                  700
                                                                                                                                                                                 Findings:
                                                                                                                                                                                 * Comoros has had steady growth since the 60's. There has
                  600
                                                                                                                                                                                 been only two drops: 1981 and 1984.
                  500                                                                                                                                                            * Production per capita has steadily decreased.
 Millions




                  400
                                                                                                                                                                                 * Even though the value of production has been doubeled, it
                                                                                                                                                                                 haven't been enough to keep the pr/capita in the same level.
                  300
                                                                                                                                                                                 * Average annual growth of:
                  200                                                                                                                                                            population (1961-2004) 3.16
                  100
                                                                                                                                                                                 value of total production (1961-2004) 1.92
                                                                                                                                                                                 value of total production (1999-2004) 1.05
                   0
                        Sum    Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum
                         of     of   of     of   of     of   of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of   of     of   of     of   of     of
                        1961   1963 1965   1967 1969   1971 1973 1975   1977 1979   1981 1983   1985 1987   1989 1991 1993   1995 1997   1999 2001   2003
                                                                                      Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         30
Non-conflict countries – Gabon

                                                         Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Gabon, 1961-2004                                                                              Agricultural grs production per capita in Gabon, 1961-2003


                     250000                                                                                                                                         250




                     200000                                                                                                                                         200




                     150000                                                                                                                                         150




                                                                                                                                                 value per capita
   Value in 1000$




                     100000                                                                                                                                         100




                      50000                                                                                                                                          50




                             0                                                                                                                                        0
                                 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                  Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                                  of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                              of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                                 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                            1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                                Year                                                                                                                            Year




                                                             Population growth in Gabon 1961-2003

                    1400



                    1200



                    1000
                                                                                                                                                                            Findings:
                     800                                                                                                                                                    * Steady production growth since the 60's.
 Millions




                     600
                                                                                                                                                                            * There are not big changes in production per capita over the
                                                                                                                                                                            period; most of the time it has been between 150-180.
                     400                                                                                                                                                    Last ten years the production value per capita has been
                     200
                                                                                                                                                                            lower than before.
                                                                                                                                                                            * Average annual growth of:
                      0
                           Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum            Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum            Sum Sum
                                                                                                                                                                            population (1961-2004) 2.71
                            of   of
                           1961 1963
                                        of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                                       1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981
                                                                                       of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                                                                                      1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
                                                                                                                                      of   of
                                                                                                                                     2001 2003
                                                                                                                                                                            value of total production (1961-2004) 2.41
                                                                                  Year
                                                                                                                                                                            value of total production (1999-2004) 0.48




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          31
Non-conflict countries – Gambia

                                                  Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Gambia, 1961-2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Agricultural grs production per capita in Gambia, 1961-2003

                  140000
                                                                                                                                                                   250


                  120000

                                                                                                                                                                   200

                  100000
 Value in 1000$




                                                                                                                                                                   150




                                                                                                                                                value per capita
                  80000



                  60000
                                                                                                                                                                   100


                  40000


                                                                                                                                                                   50
                  20000



                         0                                                                                                                                          0
                             Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                     Sum    Sum Sum     Sum Sum      Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum
                              of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                                 of     of   of     of   of      of   of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of   of     of   of     of   of     of
                             1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                               1961   1963 1965   1967 1969    1971 1973 1975   1977 1979   1981 1983   1985 1987   1989 1991 1993   1995 1997   1999 2001   2003
                                                                                  Year                                                                                                                                                  Year




                                                              Population growth in Gambia 1961-2003

                  1600


                  1400



                  1200
                                                                                                                                                                          Findings:
                                                                                                                                                                          * Value of production has had very big fluctuations over the time
                  1000                                                                                                                                                    (heavy dependence on peanut exports)
                                                                                                                                                                          Even with the high fluctuations the production has more or less
  Millions




                   800
                                                                                                                                                                          stagnated.
                   600                                                                                                                                                    * Production per capita has been decreasing to one fourth from the
                   400
                                                                                                                                                                          level of the 60's.
                                                                                                                                                                          * Average annual growth of:
                   200                                                                                                                                                    population (1961-2004) 3.41
                     0
                                                                                                                                                                          value of total production (1961-2004) -0.09
                         Sum Sum
                          of   of
                                      Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                                       of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                                                                                         Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                                                                                          of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                                                                                                                                        Sum Sum
                                                                                                                                         of   of
                                                                                                                                                                          value of total production (1999-2004) -7.20
                         1961 1963    1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981       1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999   2001 2003
                                                                                    Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              32
Non-conflict countries –Ghana

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Agricultural grs production per capita in Ghana, 1961-2003
                                                       Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Ghana, 1961-2004

                                                                                                                                                                                            200
                  4500000

                                                                                                                                                                                            180
                  4000000

                                                                                                                                                                                            160
                  3500000
                                                                                                                                                                                            140
                  3000000
                                                                                                                                                                                            120




                                                                                                                                                                         value per capita
 Value in 1000$




                  2500000
                                                                                                                                                                                            100

                  2000000
                                                                                                                                                                                             80

                  1500000
                                                                                                                                                                                             60

                  1000000
                                                                                                                                                                                             40


                  500000                                                                                                                                                                     20


                       0                                                                                                                                                                      0
                            Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                                               Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                             of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                                                           of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                            1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                                                         1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                                 Year                                                                                                                                                    Year




                                                                  P op u l a t i o n g r o wt h i n Gh a n a 19 6 1- 2 0 0 3


                            25000




                            20000



                                                                                                                                                                                                       Findings:
                            15000                                                                                                                                                                      * Production has been increasing since the beginning of the
                                                                                                                                                                                                       80's
                            10000
                                                                                                                                                                                                       * Production per capita dropped around 25 percent between
                                                                                                                                                                                                       1975 and 1990. It reached the level of 1975 in 1991.
                                                                                                                                                                                                       * Average annual growth of:
                             5000
                                                                                                                                                                                                       population (1961-2004) 2.74
                                                                                                                                                                                                       value of total production (1961-2004) 2.73
                                0                                                                                                                                                                      value of total production (1999-2004) 4.73
                                    Sum   Sum   Sum   Sum   Sum    Sum   Sum   Sum   Sum   Sum   Sum Sum     Sum   Sum   Sum   Sum   Sum   Sum   Sum   Sum   Sum   Sum
                                    of    of    of    of    of      of    of    of    of    of    of    of   of    of    of    of    of    of    of    of    of    of
                                    1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

                                                                                                  Y ear




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  33
Non-conflict countries – Kenya

                                                                                                                                                                                                          Agricultural grs production per capita in Kenya, 1961-2003

                                                   Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Kenya, 1961-2004                                                    140


                  4000000
                                                                                                                                                                 120

                  3500000

                                                                                                                                                                 100
                  3000000




                                                                                                                                              value per capita
                  2500000                                                                                                                                         80
 Value in 1000$




                  2000000
                                                                                                                                                                  60


                  1500000
                                                                                                                                                                  40

                  1000000

                                                                                                                                                                  20
                   500000


                          0                                                                                                                                        0
                              Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                  Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum     Sum    Sum Sum     Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum Sum     Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum
                               of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                              of     of     of     of     of      of     of   of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of   of     of     of     of     of     of     of
                              1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                            1961   1963   1965   1967   1969    1971   1973 1975   1977   1979   1981   1983   1985   1987   1989 1991   1993   1995   1997   1999   2001   2003
                                                                                   Year                                                                                                                                                       Year




                                                            Population growth in Kenya 1961-2003

                  35000



                  30000

                                                                                                                                                                       Findings:
                  25000                                                                                                                                                * Production has increased steadily since the 60's. The biggest
                                                                                                                                                                       drop has happened in 1984.
                  20000
                                                                                                                                                                       * Production per capita has stayed around 120$. In the period of
 Millions




                  15000
                                                                                                                                                                       1975-1990 there was more fluctuation.
                                                                                                                                                                       * Average annual growth of:
                  10000                                                                                                                                                population (1961-2004) 3.42, change 275 percent
                                                                                                                                                                       value of total production (1961-2004) 3.29
                  5000
                                                                                                                                                                       value of total production (1999-2004) 0.36
                     0
                          Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                           of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                          1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                 Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              34
Non-conflict countries - Lesotho

                                                                                                                                                                                                Agricultural grs production per capita in Lesotho, 1961-2003

                                                     Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Lesotho, 1961-2004
                                                                                                                                                                   100

                   120000
                                                                                                                                                                    90


                                                                                                                                                                    80
                   100000

                                                                                                                                                                    70

                    80000
                                                                                                                                                                    60




                                                                                                                                                value per capita
  Value in 1000$




                                                                                                                                                                    50
                    60000

                                                                                                                                                                    40


                    40000                                                                                                                                           30


                                                                                                                                                                    20
                    20000

                                                                                                                                                                    10


                           0                                                                                                                                         0
                               Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                   Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                    Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                                of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                               of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of       of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                               1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                             1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989     1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                        Year                                                                                                                                    Year




                                                           Population growth in Lesotho 1961-2003

                   2000


                   1800


                   1600


                   1400                                                                                                                                                  Findings:
                   1200                                                                                                                                                  * The production trend is increasing even though
                                                                                                                                                                         there are very high yearly fluctuations.
 Millions




                   1000


                    800
                                                                                                                                                                         * The production per capita trend is decreasing with
                                                                                                                                                                         fluctuations.
                    600
                                                                                                                                                                         * Average annual growth of:
                    400
                                                                                                                                                                         population (1961-2004) 1.91, change 108 percent
                    200
                                                                                                                                                                         value of total production (1961-2004) 0.7
                     0
                          Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum            Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum            Sum Sum
                                                                                                                                                                         value of total production (1999-2004) 1.73
                           of   of     of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of     of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of     of   of
                          1961 1963   1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981   1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999   2001 2003
                                                                                 Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             35
Non-conflict countries - Madagascar

                                                                                                                                                                                              Agricultural grs production per capita in Madagascar, 1961-2003
                                               Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Madagascar, 1961-2004

                                                                                                                                                                   250
                   2500000




                   2000000                                                                                                                                         200




                                                                                                                                                                   150




                                                                                                                                                value per capita
                   1500000
  Value in 1000$




                   1000000                                                                                                                                         100




                    500000                                                                                                                                          50




                            0                                                                                                                                        0
                                Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                  Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                                 of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                              of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                                1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                            1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                     Year                                                                                                                                      Year



                                                            Population growth in Madagascar 1961-2003

                   20000


                   18000


                   16000


                   14000
                                                                                                                                                                                  Findings:
                                                                                                                                                                                  * Production has grown slowly and steadily from
                   12000
                                                                                                                                                                                  the 60's.
 Millions




                   10000
                                                                                                                                                                                  * After stagnation until the mid 70's the pr./capita
                   8000                                                                                                                                                           has slowly and steadily decreased.
                   6000                                                                                                                                                           * Average annual growth of:
                   4000
                                                                                                                                                                                  population (1961-2004) 2,78 change 215 percent
                                                                                                                                                                                  value of total production (1961-2004) 1.48
                   2000
                                                                                                                                                                                  value of total production (1999-2004) 0.61
                      0
                           Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                            of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                           1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                     Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         36
Non-conflict countries - Malawi

                                                       Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Malawi, 1961-2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Agricultural grs production per capita in Malawi, 1961-2003
                    1800000
                                                                                                                                                                    140

                    1600000

                                                                                                                                                                    120
                    1400000


                    1200000                                                                                                                                         100
   Value in 1000$




                                                                                                                                                 value per capita
                    1000000                                                                                                                                          80


                     800000
                                                                                                                                                                     60

                     600000

                                                                                                                                                                     40
                     400000


                     200000                                                                                                                                          20



                             0
                                                                                                                                                                      0
                                 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                                                                                                                                                                          Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                                  of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                              of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                                 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                            1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                         Year                                                                                                                                   Year




                                                             Population growth in Malawi 1961-2003

                    14000



                    12000



                    10000
                                                                                                                                                                            Findings:
                                                                                                                                                                            * Production grew slowly until drops in 1992 and 1994. After that the
                    8000                                                                                                                                                    production grew rapidly until the severe drought in 2002.
 Millions




                                                                                                                                                                            * Production per capita has been in the highest level in the 70's and
                    6000
                                                                                                                                                                            in the beginning of the 2000 (over 120$).
                    4000
                                                                                                                                                                            The biggest drops have been in the beginning of the 90's.
                                                                                                                                                                            * Average annual growth of:
                    2000                                                                                                                                                    population (1961-2004) 3.15 change 235 percent
                                                                                                                                                                            value of total production (1961-2004) 2.98
                       0
                            Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum        Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                  value of total production (1999-2004) -2.15
                             of   of   of   of   of     of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                            1961 1963 1965 1967 1969   1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                  Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          37
Non-conflict countries - Mali

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Agricultural grs production per capita in Mali, 1961-2003
                                                            Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Mali, 1961-2004

                                                                                                                                                                                                160
                   2000000


                   1800000                                                                                                                                                                      140


                   1600000
                                                                                                                                                                                                120

                   1400000
                                                                                                                                                                                                100




                                                                                                                                                                             value per capita
                   1200000
  Value in 1000$




                   1000000                                                                                                                                                                       80


                    800000
                                                                                                                                                                                                 60

                    600000
                                                                                                                                                                                                 40
                    400000


                    200000                                                                                                                                                                       20


                            0
                                                                                                                                                                                                  0
                                Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                                               Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum
                                 of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                                                           of   of     of   of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of   of     of   of
                                1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                                                         1961 1963   1965 1967 1969   1971 1973   1975 1977   1979 1981   1983 1985   1987 1989   1991 1993   1995 1997 1999   2001 2003
                                                                                                    Year                                                                                                                                                          Year



                                                                      Population growth in Mali 1961-2003

                   14000



                   12000



                   10000
                                                                                                                                                                                                Findings:
                   8000                                                                                                                                                                         * Production has grown since 1973. Even in 2000 when the
 Millions




                                                                                                                                                                                                production didn't grow food aid wasn't needed. (GIEWS)
                   6000
                                                                                                                                                                                                * Most of the time production per capita has stagnated above
                   4000
                                                                                                                                                                                                and under 120$.
                                                                                                                                                                                                * Average annual growth of:
                   2000                                                                                                                                                                         population (1961-2004) 2.51 change 187 percent
                                                                                                                                                                                                value of total production (1961-2004) 2.90
                      0
                           Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum Sum     Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum Sum     Sum    Sum    Sum Sum     Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum Sum     Sum    Sum    Sum
                                                                                                                                                                                                value of total production (1999-2004) 2.83
                            of     of     of     of   of     of     of     of     of   of     of     of     of   of     of     of     of     of   of     of     of     of
                           1961   1963   1965   1967 1969   1971   1973   1975   1977 1979   1981   1983   1985 1987   1989   1991   1993   1995 1997   1999   2001   2003
                                                                                               Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   38
Non-conflict countries - Mauritania

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Agricultural grs production per capita in Mauritania, 1961-2003

                                                     Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Mauritania, 1961-2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                      200

                  350000
                                                                                                                                                                                                      180


                  300000                                                                                                                                                                              160


                                                                                                                                                                                                      140
                  250000

                                                                                                                                                                                                      120




                                                                                                                                                                                   value per capita
 Value in 1000$




                  200000
                                                                                                                                                                                                      100


                  150000                                                                                                                                                                               80


                                                                                                                                                                                                       60
                  100000

                                                                                                                                                                                                       40

                   50000
                                                                                                                                                                                                       20


                         0                                                                                                                                                                              0
                             Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                                                        Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                              of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                                                                    of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                             1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                                                                  1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                                 Year                                                                                                                                                             Year




                                                                   Population growth in Mauritania 1961-2003

                  3500



                  3000
                                                                                                                                                                                                              Findings:
                  2500                                                                                                                                                                                        * After the drop in the middle of the 70's the production
                                                                                                                                                                                                              has been growing quite stablely.
                  2000
                                                                                                                                                                                                              * Production per capita has been stagnating and slightly
 Millions




                  1500                                                                                                                                                                                        decreasing since the middle of the 70's.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              * Average annual growth of:
                  1000
                                                                                                                                                                                                              population (1961-2004) 2.46 change 183 percent
                   500                                                                                                                                                                                        value of total production (1961-2004) 1.28
                                                                                                                                                                                                              value of total production (1999-2004) 1.81
                    0
                         Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum
                          of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of
                         1961   1963   1965   1967   1969   1971   1973   1975   1977   1979   1981   1983   1985   1987   1989   1991   1993   1995   1997   1999   2001   2003
                                                                                                 Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            39
Non-conflict countries - Mauritius

                                                               Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Mauritius, 1961-2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Agricultural grs production per capita in M auritius, 1961-2003

                      200000
                                                                                                                                                                                                         250

                      180000


                      160000
                                                                                                                                                                                                         200

                      140000


                      120000
    Value in 1000$




                                                                                                                                                                                                         150




                                                                                                                                                                                      value per capita
                      100000


                       80000                                                                                                                                                                             100


                       60000


                       40000                                                                                                                                                                              50


                       20000


                              0                                                                                                                                                                            0
                                   Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                                                     Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                                    of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                                                                 of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                                   1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                                                               1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                                                  Year                                                                                                                                                Year




                                                                       Population growth in Mauritius 1961-2003

                     1400



                     1200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Findings:
                     1000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                * The trend in production has been slightly increasing, but
                                                                                                                                                                                                                yearly changes have been significant.
                      800
                                                                                                                                                                                                                * Before the beginning of the 80's production per capita
 Millions




                      600
                                                                                                                                                                                                                fluctuated heavily.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                After that it has been stagnated except the drop in 1999
                      400
                                                                                                                                                                                                                (no any abnormal weather conditions).
                      200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                * Average annual growth of:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                population (1961-2004) 1.31 change 80 percent
                       0
                            Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum
                                                                                                                                                                                                                value of total production (1961-2004) 0.71
                             of
                            1961
                                    of
                                   1963
                                           of
                                          1965
                                                  of
                                                 1967
                                                         of
                                                        1969
                                                                of
                                                               1971
                                                                       of
                                                                      1973
                                                                              of
                                                                             1975
                                                                                     of
                                                                                    1977
                                                                                            of
                                                                                           1979
                                                                                                   of
                                                                                                  1981
                                                                                                          of
                                                                                                         1983
                                                                                                                 of
                                                                                                                1985
                                                                                                                        of
                                                                                                                       1987
                                                                                                                               of
                                                                                                                              1989
                                                                                                                                      of
                                                                                                                                     1991
                                                                                                                                             of
                                                                                                                                            1993
                                                                                                                                                    of
                                                                                                                                                   1995
                                                                                                                                                           of
                                                                                                                                                          1997
                                                                                                                                                                  of
                                                                                                                                                                 1999
                                                                                                                                                                         of
                                                                                                                                                                        2001
                                                                                                                                                                                of
                                                                                                                                                                               2003                             value of total production (1999-2004) 3.64
                                                                                                    Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               40
Non-conflict countries – Niger

                                                                                                                                                                                                 Agricultural grs production per capita in Niger , 1961-2003

                                                   Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Niger, 1961-2004
                                                                                                                                                                   200

                   1400000
                                                                                                                                                                   180


                   1200000                                                                                                                                         160


                                                                                                                                                                   140
                   1000000

                                                                                                                                                                   120




                                                                                                                                                value per capita
  Value in 1000$




                    800000
                                                                                                                                                                   100


                    600000                                                                                                                                          80


                                                                                                                                                                    60
                    400000

                                                                                                                                                                    40

                    200000
                                                                                                                                                                    20


                            0                                                                                                                                        0
                                Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                  Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                                 of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                              of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                                1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                            1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                     Year                                                                                                                                       Year



                                                                Population growth in Niger 1961-2003

                   14000



                   12000
                                                                                                                                                                                    Findings:
                   10000                                                                                                                                                            * There was stagnation in the 60's (drought 68-73) , but after
                                                                                                                                                                                    that the trend has been increasing. Yearly fluctuations have
                    8000
                                                                                                                                                                                    been very big.
 Millions




                    6000
                                                                                                                                                                                    * Production per capita decreased from the 60's level of 170$
                                                                                                                                                                                    to the level of 100$ in the 80's. The curve have stagnated
                    4000                                                                                                                                                            there since then.
                                                                                                                                                                                    * Average annual growth of:
                    2000
                                                                                                                                                                                    population (1961-2004) 3.15 change 267 percent
                      0                                                                                                                                                             value of total production (1961-2004) 3.15
                           Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                            of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                                             value of total production (1999-2004) 4.37
                           1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                     Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         41
Non-conflict countries – Nigeria

                                                                                                                                                                                                   Agricultural grs production per capita in Nigeria , 1961-2003
                                                   Agricultural GRS Production e valuation in Nige ria, 1961-2004

                                                                                                                                                                      200
                    25000000

                                                                                                                                                                      180


                                                                                                                                                                      160
                    20000000

                                                                                                                                                                      140


                                                                                                                                                                      120




                                                                                                                                                   value per capita
                    15000000
   Value in 1000$




                                                                                                                                                                      100


                    10000000                                                                                                                                           80


                                                                                                                                                                       60


                      5000000                                                                                                                                          40


                                                                                                                                                                       20


                               0                                                                                                                                        0
                                   Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                  Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum               Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                                    of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                              of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of      of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                                   1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                            1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981    1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                           Year                                                                                                                                    Year




                                                              Population growth in Nigeria 1961-2003

                    140000



                    120000
                                                                                                                                                                                       Findings:
                                                                                                                                                                                       * After stagnation the production started to increase in the
                    100000                                                                                                                                                             beginning of the 80's.
                                                                                                                                                                                       Since then the production has been steadily increasing.
                    80000
                                                                                                                                                                                       * Production per capita decreased for almost twenty years
 Millions




                    60000
                                                                                                                                                                                       between 1973 and 1990.
                                                                                                                                                                                       Exceptionally compared to the other SSA-countries, Nigeria
                    40000                                                                                                                                                              has been able to reach higher level than in the 60's.
                                                                                                                                                                                       * Average annual growth of:
                    20000
                                                                                                                                                                                       population (1961-2004) 2.19 change 223 percent
                        0
                                                                                                                                                                                       value of total production (1961-2004) 3.23
                             Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                              of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                                                                                                                                                                                       value of total production (1999-2004) 1.18
                             1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                    Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               42
Non-conflict countries – Sao Tome and Principe

                                        Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Sao Tome and Principe, 1961-2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Agricultural grs production per capita in Sao Tome and Principe , 1961-2003
                   18000
                                                                                                                                                                            300
                   16000


                   14000                                                                                                                                                    250


                   12000
                                                                                                                                                                            200
 Value in 1 000$




                   10000




                                                                                                                                                         value per capita
                    8000                                                                                                                                                    150



                    6000
                                                                                                                                                                            100

                    4000

                                                                                                                                                                            50
                    2000


                         0
                                                                                                                                                                             0
                             Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                                                                                                                                                                                  Sum    Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum
                              of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                                                                                                                                                                                   of     of   of     of   of     of   of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of     of   of   of     of   of     of   of     of
                             1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                                        1961   1963 1965   1967 1969   1971 1973 1975   1977 1979   1981 1983   1985 1987   1989 1991 1993   1995 1997   1999 2001   2003
                                                                                      Year                                                                                                                                                      Year



                                                         Population growth in Sao Tome and Principe 1961-2003

                   180


                   160


                   140                                                                                                                                                                         Findings:
                   120
                                                                                                                                                                                               * After stagnation the value of production went down for
                                                                                                                                                                                               several years.
                   100
                                                                                                                                                                                               The production started to grow again from the beginning of
 Millions




                    80                                                                                                                                                                         the 90's.
                                                                                                                                                                                               * Production per capita has been declining until the
                    60
                                                                                                                                                                                               beginning of the 90's.
                    40                                                                                                                                                                         Since then it has been slightly increasing and stagnating.
                    20
                                                                                                                                                                                               * Average annual growth of:
                                                                                                                                                                                               population (1961-2004) 2.31 change 148 percent
                     0
                         Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum      Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum      Sum Sum     Sum Sum                   Sum                     value of total production (1961-2004) -0.19
                          of      of   of     of   of     of   of   of     of   of      of   of      of   of     of   of   of     of   of     of   of                   of
                         1961    1963 1965   1967 1969   1971 1973 1975   1977 1979    1981 1983    1985 1987   1989 1991 1993   1995 1997   1999 2001                 2003                    value of total production (1999-2004) 0.76
                                                                                             Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      43
Non-conflict countries – Senegal

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Agricultural grs production per capita in Sene gal, 1961-2003
                                                   Agricultural GRS Production ev aluation in Sene gal, 1961-2004

                                                                                                                                                                                                250
                   1400000




                   1200000
                                                                                                                                                                                                200


                   1000000


                                                                                                                                                                                                150




                                                                                                                                                                             value per capita
  Value in 1000$




                    800000




                    600000
                                                                                                                                                                                                100



                    400000

                                                                                                                                                                                                 50

                    200000




                           0                                                                                                                                                                      0
                               Sum    Sum Sum Sum Sum       Sum Sum Sum          Sum Sum Sum Sum       Sum Sum Sum Sum          Sum Sum Sum       Sum Sum Sum                                         Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                                of     of   of   of   of     of   of   of         of   of   of   of     of   of   of   of        of   of   of      of   of   of                                        of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                               1961   1963 1965 1967 1969   1971 1973 1975       1977 1979 1981 1983   1985 1987 1989 1991      1993 1995 1997    1999 2001 2003                                      1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                               Year                                                                                                                                                        Year




                                                                    Population growth in Senegal 1961-2003

                   12000
                                                                                                                                                                                                              Findings:
                                                                                                                                                                                                              * Production has been fluctuated very much, especially before
                   10000
                                                                                                                                                                                                              the 80's.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              The trend is increasing. The reason for a drop in 2002 was a
                   8000
                                                                                                                                                                                                              drought->
                                                                                                                                                                                                              the production of main cash crop, groundnut, went down over
 Millions




                   6000
                                                                                                                                                                                                              40 percent.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              * Production per capita has been declining. Fluctuations has
                   4000
                                                                                                                                                                                                              been lessen in the 80's and 90's.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              * Average annual growth of:
                   2000
                                                                                                                                                                                                              population (1961-2004) 2.78 change 209 percent
                                                                                                                                                                                                              value of total production (1961-2004) 0.93
                      0
                           Sum    Sum    Sum Sum Sum        Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum Sum     Sum    Sum    Sum Sum     Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum Sum     Sum    Sum    Sum                                     value of total production (1999-2004) -4.81
                            of     of     of   of   of       of     of     of     of   of     of     of     of   of     of     of     of     of   of     of     of     of
                           1961   1963   1965 1967 1969     1971   1973   1975   1977 1979   1981   1983   1985 1987   1989   1991   1993   1995 1997   1999   2001   2003
                                                                                               Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      44
Non-conflict countries – South Africa

                                                                                                                                                                                              Agricultural grs production per capita in South Africa, 1961-2003
                                                Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in South Africa, 1961-2004
                                                                                                                                                                     300
                    10000000

                      9000000
                                                                                                                                                                     250

                      8000000


                      7000000                                                                                                                                        200




                                                                                                                                                  value per capita
                      6000000
   Value in 1000$




                      5000000                                                                                                                                        150


                      4000000
                                                                                                                                                                     100
                      3000000


                      2000000
                                                                                                                                                                      50

                      1000000


                              0                                                                                                                                        0
                                  Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                  Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                                   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                              of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                                  1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                            1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                          Year                                                                                                                                  Year



                                                           Population growth in South Africa 1961-2003

                    50000


                    45000


                    40000
                                                                                                                                                                     Findings:
                    35000
                                                                                                                                                                     * Production has been increasing and it has been doubled
                    30000                                                                                                                                            since the beginning of the period.
 Millions




                    25000                                                                                                                                            * In the period the production per capita has been stagnated
                    20000
                                                                                                                                                                     and decreased slightly.
                                                                                                                                                                     * Average annual growth of:
                    15000
                                                                                                                                                                     population (1961-2004) 2.33 change 152 percent
                    10000                                                                                                                                            value of total production (1961-2004) 1.65
                    5000                                                                                                                                             value of total production (1999-2004) 1.17
                       0
                            Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                             of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                            1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                   Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           45
Non-conflict countries – Swaziland

                                                  Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Swasiland, 1961-2004                                                                                Agricultural grs production per capita in Swaziland, 1961-2003


                    250000                                                                                                                                           300




                                                                                                                                                                     250
                    200000



                                                                                                                                                                     200




                                                                                                                                                  value per capita
                    150000
   Value in 1000$




                                                                                                                                                                     150


                    100000

                                                                                                                                                                     100



                     50000
                                                                                                                                                                     50




                            0                                                                                                                                         0
                                Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                    Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum              Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                                 of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                                of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of     of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                                1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                              1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981   1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                      Year                                                                                                                                      Year




                                                             Population growth in Swaziland 1961-2003

                    1200




                    1000

                                                                                                                                                                                 Findings:
                    800                                                                                                                                                          * Production grew until 1991. After that it decreased some
                                                                                                                                                                                 and from 1995 it has been more or less stagnating.
 Millions




                    600                                                                                                                                                          * Production per capita slightly increased until the beginning
                                                                                                                                                                                 of the 80's. Since then it has been decreasing.
                    400                                                                                                                                                          * Average annual growth of:
                                                                                                                                                                                 population (1961-2004) 2.90 change 200 percent
                    200                                                                                                                                                          value of total production (1961-2004) 2.15
                                                                                                                                                                                 value of total production (1999-2004) -0.99
                      0
                           Sum Sum     Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum             Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum            Sum Sum
                            of   of     of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of      of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of     of   of
                           1961 1963   1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981    1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999   2001 2003
                                                                                    Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             46
Non-conflict countries – Tanzania

                                                    Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Tanzania, 1961-2004                                                                                     Agricultural grs production per capita in Tanzania, 1961-2003


                    4000000                                                                                                                                         140



                    3500000                                                                                                                                         120


                    3000000
                                                                                                                                                                    100

                    2500000




                                                                                                                                                 value per capita
   Value in 1000$




                                                                                                                                                                    80

                    2000000

                                                                                                                                                                    60
                    1500000


                                                                                                                                                                    40
                    1000000


                     500000                                                                                                                                         20



                             0                                                                                                                                       0
                                 Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum                                                  Sum    Sum    Sum Sum     Sum    Sum    Sum Sum     Sum    Sum    Sum Sum     Sum    Sum    Sum Sum     Sum    Sum    Sum Sum     Sum    Sum
                                  of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                              of     of     of   of     of     of     of   of     of     of     of   of     of     of     of   of     of     of     of   of     of     of
                                 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                            1961   1963   1965 1967   1969   1971   1973 1975   1977   1979   1981 1983   1985   1987   1989 1991   1993   1995   1997 1999   2001   2003
                                                                                        Year                                                                                                                                                  Year




                                                           Population growth in Tanzania 1961-2003

                    40000



                    35000
                                                                                                                                                                     Findings:
                    30000                                                                                                                                            * The value of the production has been growing steadily in the
                    25000
                                                                                                                                                                     period, except in 1997 ("Vuli" rains & dry spells at critical
                                                                                                                                                                     stages of the growing season).
 Millions




                    20000
                                                                                                                                                                     * Production per capita has been stagnating since the 90's
                    15000                                                                                                                                            when it started to decline.
                                                                                                                                                                     * Average annual growth of:
                    10000
                                                                                                                                                                     population (1961-2004) 3.17 change 252 percent
                     5000                                                                                                                                            value of total production (1961-2004) 2.40
                       0
                                                                                                                                                                     value of total production (1999-2004) 1.48
                            Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                             of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                            1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                 Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          47
Non-conflict countries – Togo

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Agricultural grs production per capita in Togo, 1961-2003

                                                         Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Togo, 1961-2004                                                                                        160

                    700000
                                                                                                                                                                                                          140


                    600000
                                                                                                                                                                                                          120


                    500000
                                                                                                                                                                                                          100




                                                                                                                                                                                       value per capita
   Value in 1000$




                    400000                                                                                                                                                                                80



                    300000                                                                                                                                                                                60



                    200000
                                                                                                                                                                                                          40



                                                                                                                                                                                                          20
                    100000



                                                                                                                                                                                                           0
                           0                                                                                                                                                                                    Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                               Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                                of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                               1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                                                                    1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                                  Ye ar                                                                                                                                                               Year




                                                                        Population growth in Togo 1961-2003

                    6000




                    5000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Findings:
                    4000                                                                                                                                                                                              * After slow increase in the 60's and 70's the production
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      growth started to accelerate in the 80's.
 Millions




                    3000                                                                                                                                                                                              * Production per capita was slowly decreasing until the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      beginning of the 80's, when the trend changed.
                    2000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      * Average annual growth of:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      population (1961-2004) 2.85 change 219 percent
                    1000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      value of total production (1961-2004) 2.56
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      value of total production (1999-2004) 2.32
                      0
                           Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum      Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum    Sum
                            of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of       of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of     of
                           1961   1963   1965   1967   1969   1971   1973   1975   1977   1979   1981     1983   1985   1987   1989   1991   1993   1995   1997   1999   2001   2003
                                                                                                    Year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                48
Non-conflict countries – Zambia

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Agricultural grs production per capita in Zambia, 1961-2003
                                                      Agricultural GRS Production evaluation in Zambia, 1961-2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                    120
                  800000


                  700000                                                                                                                                                                            100


                  600000
                                                                                                                                                                                                     80

                  500000




                                                                                                                                                                                 value per capita
 Value in 1000$




                  400000                                                                                                                                                                             60



                  300000
                                                                                                                                                                                                     40

                  200000

                                                                                                                                                                                                     20
                  100000


                          0
                                                                                                                                                                                                      0
                              Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
                               of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of                                                                 of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of   of
                              1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003                                                               1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
                                                                                                     Year                                                                                                                                                      Year



                                                                     Population growth in Zambia 1961-2003

                  12000



                                                                                                                                                                                                          Findings:
                  10000
                                                                                                                                                                                                          * The value of production has been increasing, but the
                   8000
                                                                                                                                                                                                          yearly changes have been bery big.
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Between 1979 and 1986 the growth was stable and
      Millions




                   6000                                                                                                                                                                                   slow.
                                                                                                                                                                                                          * The production per capita has had big fluctuations in
                   4000
                                                                                                                                                                                                          the 70's and in the 80's.
                                                                                                                                                                                                          The trend is decreasing.
                   2000
                                                                                                                                                                                                          * Average annual growth of:
                     0
                                                                                                                                                                                                          population (1961-2004) 3.11change 235 percent
                          Sum
                           of
                                 Sum
                                  of
                                        Sum
                                         of
                                               Sum
                                                of
                                                      Sum
                                                       of
                                                             Sum
                                                              of
                                                                    Sum
                                                                     of
                                                                           Sum
                                                                            of
                                                                                  Sum Sum
                                                                                   of   of
                                                                                              Sum
                                                                                               of
                                                                                                      Sum
                                                                                                       of
                                                                                                             Sum
                                                                                                              of
                                                                                                                    Sum
                                                                                                                     of
                                                                                                                           Sum
                                                                                                                            of
                                                                                                                                  Sum
                                                                                                                                   of
                                                                                                                                         Sum
                                                                                                                                          of
                                                                                                                                                Sum Sum
                                                                                                                                                 of   of
                                                                                                                                                            Sum
                                                                                                                                                             of
                                                                                                                                                                   Sum
                                                                                                                                                                    of
                                                                                                                                                                          Sum
                                                                                                                                                                           of
                                                                                                                                                                                                          value of total production (1961-2004) 2.25
                          1961   1963   1965   1967   1969   1971   1973   1975   1977 1979   1981
                                                                                                Year
                                                                                                      1983   1985   1987   1989   1991   1993   1995 1997   1999   2001   2003
                                                                                                                                                                                                          value of total production (1999-2004) -0.11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          49
General findings concerning non- conflict-affected countries:

● The value of total production has grown in most of the countries. In few countries there has been stagnation and very
much fluctuations.

In many countries the growth has started to accelerate in the beginning of the 80’s.

Only Gambia and Sao Tome & Principe are approximately in the same level as they were in the 60’s. Both are very small
countries heavily dependent on exports of one product – Gambia on peanut and Sao Tome and Principe on cocoa crops.
They are hostages to fluctuations in the production and world prices of the crop.

●The production per capita has declined in most of the countries.

There are only four countries out of 26 non-conflict countries which have been able to keep the value of production per
capita in the same level as in the 60’s. (Cape Verde, Kenya, Malawi, Mali)
Four countries have higher production per capita level than in the 60’s (Benin, Burkina Faso, Ghana and Nigeria). Only
Benin and Burkina Faso have grown clearly. Ghana’s and Nigeria’s production per capita has grown only in the 90’s but
most of the time in the period the level has been lower than in the 60’s.
The main reason for Benin’s and Burkina Faso’s good performance is propably the increasing price of the cotton. Common
factor for Ghana and Nigeria is that their both have much of natural resources.

● Population growth exceeds the production growth, so the production per capita decreases

Only six countrie’s (out of 26) total production growth was higher than population growth (Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape
Verde, Ghana, Mali, Nigeria)




                                                                                                                          50
General findings concerning both groups

● There has been negative trend in rainfall from 1950 onwards culminating, in especially in West Africa 1984. Since then
starting in 1988, the Sahel has recorded a series of good years (Gommes, R. 1996)
This trend can be seen in graphs.

● Most of the time the worst droughts 1973, 1984 and 1992 can be seen in the curves. Not allways though.

● The growth from the beginning of the eighties can be due to succesfull structural adjustement programmes and the good
weather conditions.

● the biggest drops can be seen in the countries where occurs combination of low rainfall and conflict

-Population growth can be seen in both groups
-in conflict countries the effect of conflict overdraws the effect of population growth


-GRS / capita : in the better or same level compared to 60’s:
-Conflict countries: Central African Republic, Cote d’ Ivoire, Rwanda
-Non-conflict: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Cabon, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria




                                                                                                                           51
Findings Annex
Contents
1. Long-term effects of conflict :     53
Comparison of conflict and non-conflict countries 53
   1.1 Average gross production per capita 1961-2004............................................................ 53
      1.1.2 T-test for average gross production per capita 1961-2004                  56
      1.1.3 T-test for average gross production per capita 1961-2004 w/o outliers 57
   1.2 Average annual growth rate of total production 1961-2004 .......................................... 58
      1.2.1 T-tests for average annual growth rate 1961-2004              59
      1.2.2 T-tests for average annual growth rate 1961-2004 w/o outliers 60
   1.3 Average annual growth rate of total production per capita 1961-2004.......................... 63
      1.3.1 T-test for average annual growth rate per capita 1961-2004                64
      1.3.2 T-test for average annual growth rate per capita 1961-2004 w/o outliers                           65
2. Regional differences          68
   2.1 Value of total agricultural production 1961-2003/2004................................................. 68
   2.2 Average annual growth of total production & total production per capita .................... 68
      2.2.1 T-test for average annual growth for Eastern and Western Africa                       69
      2.2.2 T-test for average annual growth per capita for Eastern and Western Africa 70
3. Population growth 71
   3.1 The average annual population growth in different regions 1961-2003 ........................ 71
   3.2 Average annual population growth in non-conflict and conflict countries 1961-2003.. 72
      3.2.1 T-test for average annual population growth 1961-2003 72
      3.2.2 T-test test for average annual population growth 1961-2003 w/o outliers                           75
4. Differences in periods        77
4. Incidence of drought          79
5. FAO indices of agricultural production 82




1. Long-term effects of conflict :
Comparison of conflict and non-conflict countries


1.1 Average gross production per capita 1961-2004

 Non-conflict
 countries                              Conflict countries
 Benin                              149 Angola                                  97
 Botswana                           147 Burundi                                128
                                        Central African
 Burkina Faso                        85 Republic                               143


                                                                                                                53
 Cameroon                     162 Chad                            129
                                  Congo, Dem
 Cape Verde                    49 Republic of                      88
 Comoros                       70 Congo, Republic of               74
 Gabon                        174 Côte d'Ivoire                   225
 Gambia                       131 Eritrea                          39
 Ghana                        143 Ethiopia                         65
 Kenya                        118 Guinea                          118
 Lesotho                       66 Guinea-Bissau                   112
 Madagascar                   164 Liberia                          99
 Malawi                       111 Mozambique                       75
 Mali                         122 Namibia                         264
 Mauritania                   138 Rwanda                          159
 Mauritius                    159 Sierra Leone                     83
 Niger                        124 Uganda                          236
 Nigeria                      155 Zimbabwe                        148
 Sao Tome and
 Principe                     142
 Senegal                      142
 South Africa                 208
 Swaziland                    222
 Tanzania, United Rep
 of                           114
 Togo                         117
 Zambia                        73
 Average per capita           131                                 127

Average non-conflict without South Africa and Swaziland is 124.
Average conflict without Cote d’ Ivoire, Namibia and Uganda is 104.

There is not a significant difference between total averages in conflict and non-conflict
countries. In this case though the average is hiding some information. In conflict and post-
conflict countries there are three very good performances which increases the average. Almost
half of the group (7/15) the average is less than 100 $. Most of the non-conflict countries have
the average over 100 $. Only six out of 28 non-countries have the per capita average less than
100 $.




                                                                                             54
  30

  25

  20
                                                              >100$
  15
                                                              <100$
  10

     5

     0
              Conflict countries        Non-conflict



Approximately half of the countries’s gdp is between 100 and 150. The outliers for the
conflict countries are seen in the graph. The countries are Namibia, Cote d’ Ivoire and
Namibia. When excluding them, the difference in averages is much more significant. Average
for non-conflict countries is 131 and conflict countries 98.


                    GRS production per capita annual average over
                                     1961-2003

              250

              200
  Dollar $




              150
                                                                       Non-conflict countries
              100

              50

               0
                    0              10              20        30




                    GRS production per capita annual average over
                                     1961-2003

              300
              250
              200
   Dollar $




              150                                                        Conflict countries
              100
               50
                0
                    0         5              10         15        20




                                                                                                55
1.1.2 T-test for average gross production per capita 1961-2004
Conflict and non-conflict countries

 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances

                                     Non-
                                   conflict 1   Conflict 2
 Mean                                131.49        126.84
 Variance                           1732.24       3804.24
 Observations                         25.00              18
 Pooled Variance                    2591.36
 Hypothesized Mean Difference           0.00
 df                                   41.00
 t Stat                                 0.30
 P(T<=t) one-tail                       0.38
 t Critical one-tail                    1.68
 P(T<=t) two-tail                       0.77
 t Critical two-tail                    2.02


 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances

                                   Variable
                                      1         Variable 2
 Mean                               131.49          126.84
 Variance                          1732.24         3804.24
 Observations                         25.00          18.00
 Hypothesized Mean Difference          0.00
 df                                   28.00
 t Stat                                0.28
 P(T<=t) one-tail                      0.39
 t Critical one-tail                   1.70
 P(T<=t) two-tail                      0.78
 t Critical two-tail                   2.05

The probability of having a difference in means by chance is 0.00. So means are statistically
not different.

Null hypothesis:       no mean difference

t-value:               0.28

Critical t-value:      1.70 one tail
                       2.05 two tails

Our t-value does fall within the -2.05 to 2.05 interval. Therefore, we do not reject the null
hypothesis, so the means are not different.




                                                                                                56
1.1.3 T-test for average gross production per capita 1961-2004 w/o outliers

Conflict and non-conflict countries
Outliers:
non-conflict: South Africa & Swaziland
conflict: Ivory coast, Namibia, Uganda

 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances

                                         Non-
                                        conflict    Conflict
                                           1          2
 Mean                                    124.26      103.83
 Variance                               1202.72     1158.93
 Observations                             23.00       15.00
 Pooled Variance                        1185.69
 Hypothesized Mean Difference               0.00
 df                                       36.00
 t Stat                                     1.79
 P(T<=t) one-tail                           0.04
 t Critical one-tail                        1.69
 P(T<=t) two-tail                           0.08
 t Critical two-tail                        2.03

 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances

                                        Variable    Variable
                                           1           2
 Mean                                     124.26      103.83
 Variance                                1202.72     1158.93
 Observations                              23.00       15.00
 Hypothesized Mean Difference                0.00
 df                                        30.00
 t Stat                                      1.79
 P(T<=t) one-tail                            0.04
 t Critical one-tail                         1.70
 P(T<=t) two-tail                            0.08
 t Critical two-tail                         2.04

The probability of having a difference in means by chance is 0.00.
So, we can say that the means are statistically significantly different at 92 % level of
confidence

Null hypothesis:       no mean difference

t-value:               1.79

Critical t-value:      1.70 one tail
                       2.04 two tails

Our t-value does not fall within the -1.70 to 1.70 interval. Therefore, we do reject the null
hypothesis, so the means are different.


                                                                                                57
1.2 Average annual growth rate of total production 1961-2004
Agricultural grs production (FAO Stat 2005)

There is a difference between conflict affected and non-conflict affected countries in growth
rates. In the long term (1961-2004) the non-conflict countries has better average annual
growth rate. In non-conflict countries more than a half had growth rate over two, but conflict
countries only one fourth.

 Non-conflict                                           Conflict
 Benin                                           4.29   Angola                                    0.64
 Botswana                                        0.82   Burundi                                   1.17
 Burkina Faso                                    3.78   Central African Republic                  2.54
 Cameroon                                        2.81   Chad                                      1.92
 Cape Verde                                      2.74   Congo, Dem Republic of                    1.46
 Comoros                                         1.92   Congo, Republic of                        1.61
 Djibouti                                        5.48   Côte d'Ivoire                             3.67
 Gabon                                           2.41   Eritrea                                   0.18
 Gambia                                         -0.09   Ethiopia                                  1.30
 Ghana                                           2.73   Guinea                                    1.95
 Kenya                                           3.29   Guinea-Bissau                             2.38
 Lesotho                                         0.70   Liberia                                   1.05
 Madagascar                                      1.48   Mozambique                                0.66
 Malawi                                          2.98   Namibia                                   0.32
 Mali                                            2.90   Rwanda                                    2.21
 Mauritania                                      1.28   Sierra Leone                              0.90
 Mauritius                                       0.71   Sudan                                     2.50
 Niger                                           1.90   Uganda                                    1.93
 Nigeria                                         3.23
 Sao Tome and Principe                          -0.19
 Senegal                                         0.93
 Seychelles                                     -0.33
 South Africa                                    1.65
 Swaziland                                       2.15
 Togo                                            2.56
 Zambia                                          2.25
 Zimbabwe                                        2.03
 Simple average                                  2.09                                             1.58
 Average annual growth
 (known_y's,known_x's,new_x's,const)            2.62                                              1.41




                                                                                             58
1.2.1 T-tests for average annual growth rate 1961-2004
Conflict and non-conflict countries


 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances

                                          Non-
                                        conflict 1       Conflict 2
 Mean                                         2.09                     1.58
 Variance                                     1.88                     0.81
 Observations                              27.00                      18.00
 Pooled Variance                              1.46
 Hypothesized Mean Difference                 0.00
 df                                         43.00
 t Stat                                       1.39
 P(T<=t) one-tail                             0.09
 t Critical one-tail                          1.68
 P(T<=t) two-tail                             0.17
 t Critical two-tail                          2.02

 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal
 Variances

                                        Variable 1       Variable 2
 Mean                                        2.09                      1.58
 Variance                                    1.88                      0.81
 Observations                               27.00                     18.00
 Hypothesized Mean Difference                0.00
 df                                         43.00
 t Stat                                      1.51
 P(T<=t) one-tail                            0.07
 t Critical one-tail                         1.68
 P(T<=t) two-tail                            0.14
 t Critical two-tail                         2.02

The probability of having a difference in means by chance is 0.00.

Null hypothesis:       no mean difference

t-value:               1.51

Critical t-value:      1.68 one tail
                       2.02 two tails

Our t-value does fall within the -1.68 to 1.68 interval. Therefore, we do not reject the null
hypothesis, so the means are not different.




                                                                                                59
1.2.2 T-tests for average annual growth rate 1961-2004 w/o outliers

Conflict and non-conflict countries
Outliers:
non-conflict: Djibouti, Gambia, Benin, Sao Tome and Principe, Seychelles
conflict: Cote d’ Ivoire, Eritrea, Namibia

 Non-conflict                                  Conflict
 Benin                                         Angola                      0.64
 Botswana                               0.82   Burundi                     1.17
                                               Central African
 Burkina Faso                           3.78   Republic                    2.54
 Cameroon                               2.81   Chad                        1.92
                                               Congo, Dem Republic
 Cape Verde                             2.74   of                          1.46
 Comoros                                1.92   Congo, Republic of          1.61
 Djibouti                                      Côte d'Ivoire
 Gabon                                  2.41   Eritrea
 Gambia                                        Ethiopia                    1.30
 Ghana                                  2.73   Guinea                      1.95
 Kenya                                  3.29   Guinea-Bissau               2.38
 Lesotho                                0.70   Liberia                     1.05
 Madagascar                             1.48   Mozambique                  0.66
 Malawi                                 2.98   Namibia
 Mali                                   2.90   Rwanda                      2.21
 Mauritania                             1.28   Sierra Leone                0.90
 Mauritius                              0.71   Sudan                       2.50
 Niger                                  1.90   Uganda                      1.93
 Nigeria                                3.23
 Sao Tome and
 Principe
 Senegal                                0.93
 Seychelles
 South Africa                           1.65
 Swaziland                              2.15
 Togo                                   2.56
 Zambia                                 2.25
 Zimbabwe                               2.03
 Simple average                         2.15                               1.62




                                                                                  60
 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances

                                          Non-
                                        conflict 1       Conflict 2
 Mean                                         2.15                     1.62
 Variance                                     0.80                     0.42
 Observations                              22.00                      15.00
 Pooled Variance                              0.65
 Hypothesized Mean Difference                 0.00
 df                                         35.00
 t Stat                                       1.98
 P(T<=t) one-tail                             0.03
 t Critical one-tail                          1.69
 P(T<=t) two-tail                             0.06
 t Critical two-tail                          2.03

 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal
 Variances

                                        Variable 1       Variable 2
 Mean                                        2.15                      1.62
 Variance                                    0.80                      0.42
 Observations                               22.00                     15.00
 Hypothesized Mean Difference                0.00
 df                                         35.00
 t Stat                                      2.10
 P(T<=t) one-tail                            0.02
 t Critical one-tail                         1.69
 P(T<=t) two-tail                            0.04
 t Critical two-tail                         2.03



The probability of having a difference in means by chance is 0.00.
So, we can say that the means are statistically significantly different at 96 % level of
confidence

Null hypothesis:       no mean difference

t-value:               2.10

Critical t-value:      1.69 one tail
                       2.03 two tails

Our t-value does not fall within the -1.69 to 1.69 or -2.03 to 2.03 interval. Therefore, we do
reject the null hypothesis, so the means are different.




                                                                                                 61
                 Average annual growth rate of total pr. 1961-2004

              6.00
              5.00
              4.00
Growth rate




              3.00
                                                                Non-conflict countries
              2.00
              1.00
              0.00
              -1.00 0             10        20        30




                     Average annual growth rate of total production
                                      1961-2004

              4.00
              3.50
              3.00
Growth rate




              2.50
              2.00                                                  Conflict countries
              1.50
              1.00
              0.50
              0.00
                     0        5        10        15        20




                                                                                         62
1.3 Average annual growth rate of total production per capita 1961-2004
Agricultural grs production per capita (FAO Stat 2005)

Non-conflict countries                        Conflict countries
Benin                                  1.45   Angola                    -1.97
Botswana                              -2.16   Burundi                   -0.87
                                              Central African
Burkina Faso                          1.14    Republic                   0.24
Cameroon                              0.06    Chad                      -0.54
                                              Congo, Dem Republic
Cape Verde                             0.93   of                        -1.40
Comoros                               -1.20   Congo, Republic of        -1.54
Gabon                                 -0.26   Côte d'Ivoire              0.01
Gambia                                -3.39   Eritrea 1993-2003         -2.23
Ghana                                 -0.09   Ethiopia 1993-2003         1.32
Kenya                                 -0.09   Guinea                    -0.54
Lesotho                               -1.18   Rwanda                    -0.04
Liberia                               -1.28   Sierra Leone              -0.85
Madagascar                            -1.24   Uganda                    -1.18
Malawi                                -0.16
Mali                                   0.38   Post-conflict countries
Mauritania                            -1.17   Guinea-Bissau             -0.25
Mauritius                             -0.58   Mozambique                -1.47
Niger                                 -1.27   Namibia                   -2.43
Nigeria                                0.30
Sao Tome and Principe                 -2.53
Senegal                               -1.80
South Africa                          -0.64
Swaziland                             -0.65
Tanzania, United Rep of               -0.71
Togo                                  -0.29
Zambia                                -0.81
Zimbabwe                              -1.06
Simple average                        -0.68                             -0.86
Average annual growth                 -0.66                             -0.93
(known_y's,known_x's,new_x's,const)




                                                                                63
1.3.1 T-test for average annual growth rate per capita 1961-2004
Conflict and non-conflict countries

 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances

                                          Variable 1   Variable 2
 Mean                                          -0.68        -0.86
 Variance                                       1.17         0.99
 Observations                                  27.00        16.00
 Pooled Variance                                1.11
 Hypothesized Mean Difference                   0.00
 df                                            41.00
 t Stat                                         0.54
 P(T<=t) one-tail                               0.29
 t Critical one-tail                            1.68
 P(T<=t) two-tail                               0.59
 t Critical two-tail                            2.02

 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances

                                          Variable 1   Variable 2
 Mean                                          -0.68        -0.86
 Variance                                       1.17         0.99
 Observations                                  27.00        16.00
 Hypothesized Mean Difference                   0.00
 df                                            34.00
 t Stat                                         0.56
 P(T<=t) one-tail                               0.29
 t Critical one-tail                            1.69
 P(T<=t) two-tail                               0.58
 t Critical two-tail                            2.03

The probability of having a difference in means by chance is 0.00 (i.e., the P(T<=t) two tail)

Null hypothesis:       no mean difference

t-value:               0.56

Critical t-value:      1.69 one tail
                       2.03 two tails

Our t-value does fall within the -2.03 to 2.03 interval. Therefore, we do not reject the null
hypothesis, so the means are not different.




                                                                                                64
1.3.2 T-test for average annual growth rate per capita 1961-2004 w/o outliers

Conflict and non-conflict countries
Outliers:
non-conflict: Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Sao Tome and Principe, Gambia
conflict: Ethiopia, Eritrea, Namibia

 Non-conflict
 countries                               Conflict countries
 Benin                                   Angola                   -1.97
 Botswana                                Burundi                  -0.87
                                         Central African
 Burkina Faso                            Republic                  0.24
 Cameroon                         0.06   Chad                     -0.54
                                         Congo, Dem
 Cape Verde                       0.93   Republic of              -1.40
 Comoros                         -1.20   Congo, Republic of       -1.54
 Gabon                           -0.26   Côte d'Ivoire             0.01
 Gambia                                  Eritrea
 Ghana                           -0.09   Ethiopia
 Kenya                           -0.09   Guinea                   -0.54
 Lesotho                         -1.18   Guinea-Bissau            -0.25
 Liberia                         -1.28   Mozambique               -1.47
 Madagascar                      -1.24   Namibia
 Malawi                          -0.16   Rwanda                   -0.04
 Mali                             0.38   Sierra Leone             -0.85
 Mauritania                      -1.17   Uganda                   -1.18
 Mauritius                       -0.58
 Niger                           -1.27
 Nigeria                          0.30
 Sao Tome and
 Principe
 Senegal                         -1.80
 South Africa                    -0.64
 Swaziland                       -0.65
 Tanzania, United
 Rep of                          -0.71
 Togo                            -0.29
 Zambia                          -0.81
 Zimbabwe                        -1.06
 Simple average                  -0.58                            -0.80




                                                                                65
 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances

                                          Variable 1   Variable 2
 Mean                                          -0.58        -0.80
 Variance                                       0.45         0.47
 Observations                                  22.00        13.00
 Pooled Variance                                0.46
 Hypothesized Mean Difference                   0.00
 df                                            33.00
 t Stat                                         0.91
 P(T<=t) one-tail                               0.18
 t Critical one-tail                            1.69
 P(T<=t) two-tail                               0.37
 t Critical two-tail                            2.03


 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances

                                          Variable 1   Variable 2
 Mean                                          -0.58        -0.80
 Variance                                       0.45         0.47
 Observations                                  22.00        13.00
 Hypothesized Mean Difference                   0.00
 df                                            25.00
 t Stat                                         0.91
 P(T<=t) one-tail                               0.19
 t Critical one-tail                            1.71
 P(T<=t) two-tail                               0.37
 t Critical two-tail                            2.06



The probability of having a difference in means by chance is 0.00 (i.e., the P(T<=t) two tail)
So, we can say that the means are statistically significantly different at 95 % level of
confidence

Null hypothesis:       no mean difference

t-value:               0.91

Critical t-value:      1.71 one tail
                       2.06 two tails

Our t-value does fall within the -2.06 to 2.06 interval. Therefore, we do not reject the null
hypothesis, so the means are not different.




                                                                                                66
                 Average annual growth of total agricultural value
                            (per capita) 1961-2003

              2.00
              1.00
Growth rate




              0.00
              -1.00 0        10          20        30    Non-conflict countries
              -2.00
              -3.00
              -4.00




                 Average annual growth of total agricultural value
                            (per capita) 1961-2003

              2.00

              1.00
Growth rate




              0.00
                      0     5       10        15        20     Conflict countries
              -1.00

              -2.00

              -3.00




                                                                                    67
2. Regional differences
Regional classification of countries is based on the classification FAO Global Information and
Early Warning System on food and agriculture (GIEWS) is using in its reports. For example
in yearly Africa Reports.


2.1 Value of total agricultural production 1961-2003/2004

                     Average annual          Average annual growth per
                     growth                  capita
 Eastern Africa                  1.53                            -0.34
 Western Africa                  2.94                            -0.43
 Central Africa                  1.64                            -0.78
 Southern Africa                 1.58                            -1.23
Average annual growth (known_y's,known_x's,new_x's,const)

The growth in Western Africa has been almost double compared to other regions. The best
per capita average is in eastern Africa, but the differences are very small.

                   Simple average:           Simple average: growth
                   growth                    p/c
 Eastern Africa                       1.80                       -0.90
 Western Africa                       2.24                       -0.43
 Central Africa                       1.57                       -1.10
 Southern Africa                      1.36                       -1.20


2.2 Average annual growth of total production & total production per capita

                                    Average annual          Average annual
 Regions                            growth                  growth p/c
            Central African
 central    Republic                               2.54                      0.24
            Congo, Dem
            Republic of                            1.46                      -1.40
            Congo, Republic of                     1.61                      -1.54
            Gabon                                  2.41                      -0.26
            Sao Tome and
            Principe                              -0.19                      -2.53
 central simple average                            1.57                      -1.10
 eastern    Burundi                                1.17                      -0.87
            Comoros                                1.92                      -1.20
            Eritrea                                0.18                      -2.23
            Ethiopia                               1.30
            Kenya                                  3.29                      -0.09
            Rwanda                                 2.21                      -0.04
            Tanzania, United
            Rep of                                 2.40                      -0.71
            Uganda                                 1.93                      -1.18


                                                                                           68
 eastern simple average                           1.80                  -0.90
 southern Angola                                  0.64                  -1.97
            Botswana                              0.82                  -2.16
            Lesotho                               0.70                  -1.18
            Madagascar                            1.48                  -1.24
            Malawi                                2.98                  -0.16
            Mauritius                             0.71                  -0.58
            Mozambique                            0.66                  -1.47
            Namibia                               0.32                  -2.43
            South Africa                          1.65                  -0.64
            Swaziland                             2.15                  -0.65
            Zambia                                2.25                  -0.81
            Zimbabwe                              2.03                  -1.06
 southern simple average                          1.36                  -1.20

 western    Benin                                 4.29                   1.45
            Burkina Faso                          3.78                   1.14
            Cape Verde                            2.74                   0.93
            Chad                                  1.92                  -0.54
            Côte d'Ivoire                         3.67                   0.01
            Gambia                               -0.09                  -3.39
            Ghana                                 2.73                  -0.09
            Guinea                                1.95                  -0.54
            Guinea-Bissau                         2.38                  -0.25
            Liberia                               1.05                  -1.28
            Mali                                  2.90                   0.38
            Mauritania                            1.28                  -1.17
            Niger                                 1.90                  -1.27
            Nigeria                               3.23                   0.30
            Senegal                               0.93                  -1.80
            Sierra Leone                          0.90                  -0.85
            Togo                                  2.56                  -0.29
 western simple average                           2.24                  -0.43


2.2.1 T-test for average annual growth for Eastern and Western Africa

 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances

                                     Eastern    Western
                                       1          2
 Mean                                    1.80       2.24
 Variance                                0.86       1.39
 Observations                            8.00     17.00
 Pooled Variance                         1.23
 Hypothesized Mean Difference            0.00
 df                                     23.00
 t Stat                                 -0.93
 P(T<=t) one-tail                        0.18
 t Critical one-tail                     1.71
 P(T<=t) two-tail                        0.36



                                                                                69
 t Critical two-tail                     2.07

 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances

                                     Eastern     Western
                                       1           2
 Mean                                    1.80        2.24
 Variance                                0.86        1.39
 Observations                            8.00      17.00
 Hypothesized Mean Difference            0.00
 df                                     17.00
 t Stat                                 -1.01
 P(T<=t) one-tail                        0.16
 t Critical one-tail                     1.74
 P(T<=t) two-tail                        0.32
 t Critical two-tail                     2.11

There is no difference in means.


2.2.2 T-test for average annual growth per capita for Eastern and Western Africa

 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances

                                     Eastern     Western
                                        1          2
 Mean                                   -0.90       -0.43
 Variance                                0.56        1.39
 Observations                            7.00      17.00
 Pooled Variance                         1.16
 Hypothesized Mean Difference            0.00
 df                                     22.00
 t Stat                                 -0.98
 P(T<=t) one-tail                        0.17
 t Critical one-tail                     1.72
 P(T<=t) two-tail                        0.34
 t Critical two-tail                     2.07

 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances

                                     Eastern     Western
                                        1          2
 Mean                                   -0.90       -0.43
 Variance                                0.56        1.39
 Observations                            7.00      17.00
 Hypothesized Mean Difference            0.00
 df                                     18.00
 t Stat                                 -1.18
 P(T<=t) one-tail                        0.13
 t Critical one-tail                     1.73
 P(T<=t) two-tail                        0.25
 t Critical two-tail                     2.10




                                                                                   70
There is no difference in means.

There also is not any difference in means when excluding outliers Eritrea and Gambia.


3. Population growth
3.1 The average annual population growth in different regions 1961-2003

               Central African
 central       Republic                2.30
               Congo, Dem Republic
               of                      2.98
               Congo, Republic of      3.19
               Gabon                   2.71
               Sao Tome and
               Principe                2.31
 Central simple average                2.70
 eastern       Burundi                 2.09
               Comoros                 3.16
               Eritrea                 2.90
               Ethiopia                2.55
               Kenya                   3.42
               Rwanda                  2.27
               Tanzania, United Rep
               of                      3.17
               Uganda                  3.14
 Eastern simple average                2.84
 southern      Angola                  2.57
               Botswana                3.09
               Lesotho                 1.91
               Madagascar              2.78
               Malawi                  3.15
               Mauritius               1.31
               Mozambique              2.11
               Namibia                 2.84
               South Africa            2.33
               Swaziland               2.90
               Zambia                  3.11
               Zimbabwe                3.18
 Southern simple average               2.61
 western       Benin                   2.74
               Burkina Faso            2.56
               Cape Verde              1.79
               Chad                    2.43
               Co´te d'Ivoire          3.75
               Gambia                  3.41
               Ghana                   2.74
               Guinea                  2.47
               Guinea-Bissau           2.63
               Liberia                 2.36
               Mali                    2.51
               Mauritania              2.46
               Niger                   3.15



                                                                                        71
              Nigeria                     2.91
              Senegal                     2.78
              Sierra Leone                1.80
              Togo                        2.85
 Western simple average                   2.67

Regional classification of countries is based on the classification FAO Global Information and
Early Warning System on food and agriculture (GIEWS) is using in its reports. For example
in yearly Africa Reports.


3.2 Average annual population growth in non-conflict and conflict countries 1961-2003

 Non-conflict                       Conflict
 Benin                       2.74   Angola                       2.57
 Botswana                    3.09   Burundi                      2.09
                                    Central African
 Burkina Faso                2.56   Republic                     2.30
 Cameroon                    2.75   Chad                         2.43
 Cape Verde                  1.79   Co´te d'Ivoire               3.75
                                    Congo, Dem Republic
 Comoros                     3.16   of                           2.98
 Gabon                       2.71   Congo, Republic of           3.19
 Gambia                      3.41   Eritrea                      2.90
 Ghana                       2.74   Ethiopia                     2.55
 Kenya                       3.42   Guinea                       2.47
 Lesotho                     1.91   Guinea-Bissau                2.63
 Madagascar                  2.78   Liberia                      2.36
 Malawi                      3.15   Mozambique                   2.11
 Mali                        2.51   Namibia                      2.84
 Mauritania                  2.46   Rwanda                       2.27
 Mauritius                   1.31   Sierra Leone                 1.80
 Niger                       3.15   Uganda                       3.14
 Nigeria                     2.91   Zimbabwe                     3.18
 Sao Tome and
 Principe                    2.31
 Senegal                     2.78
 South Africa                2.33
 Swaziland                   2.90
 Tanzania, United Rep
 of                          3.17
 Togo                        2.85
 Zambia                      3.11
 NC simple average           2.72   C simple average             2.64


3.2.1 T-test for average annual population growth 1961-2003

 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances

                                      Non-
                                      conflict 1    Conflict 2
 Mean                                        2.72         2.64
 Variance                                    0.25         0.24


                                                                                           72
 Observations                               25.00        18.00
 Pooled Variance                             0.25
 Hypothesized Mean Difference                0.00
 df                                         41.00
 t Stat                                      0.51
 P(T<=t) one-tail                            0.31
 t Critical one-tail                         1.68
 P(T<=t) two-tail                            0.61
 t Critical two-tail                         2.02


 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal
 Variances

                                          Non-
                                        conflict 1   Conflict 2
 Mean                                         2.72         2.64
 Variance                                     0.25         0.24
 Observations                              25.00          18.00
 Hypothesized Mean Difference                 0.00
 df                                         38.00
 t Stat                                       0.51
 P(T<=t) one-tail                             0.31
 t Critical one-tail                          1.69
 P(T<=t) two-tail                             0.61
 t Critical two-tail                          2.02

The probability of having a difference in means is 0.31 (one-tailed) and 0.61 (two-tailed).

Null hypothesis:       no mean difference

t-value:               0.51

Critical t-value:      1.69 one tail
                       2.02 two tails

Our t-value does fall within the -1.69 to 1.69 interval. Therefore, we do not reject the null
hypothesis, so the means are not different.




                                                                                                73
                          Average annual population growth 1961-2003


               4.00
Growth rate



               3.00

               2.00                                                       Non-conflict countries
               1.00
               0.00
                      0    5       10      15      20      25   30
                                   Amount of countries




                          Average annual population growth 1961-2003

               4.00
Growth rates




               3.00

               2.00                                                           Conflict countries

               1.00

               0.00
                      0        5             10           15         20
                                    Amount of countries




                                                                                                   74
3.2.2 T-test test for average annual population growth 1961-2003 w/o outliers

Outliers:
non-conflict:Mauritius
conflict: Cote d’Ivoire, Sierra Leone

 Non-conflict                                    Conflict
 Benin                                   2.74    Angola                    2.57
 Botswana                                3.09    Burundi                   2.09
                                                 Central African
 Burkina Faso                            2.56    Republic                  2.30
 Cameroon                                2.75    Chad                      2.43
 Cape Verde                              1.79    Co´te d'Ivoire
                                                 Congo, Dem Republic
 Comoros                                 3.16    of                        2.98
 Gabon                                   2.71    Congo, Republic of        3.19
 Gambia                                  3.41    Eritrea                   2.90
 Ghana                                   2.74    Ethiopia                  2.55
 Kenya                                   3.42    Guinea                    2.47
 Lesotho                                 1.91    Guinea-Bissau             2.63
 Madagascar                              2.78    Liberia                   2.36
 Malawi                                  3.15    Mozambique                2.11
 Mali                                    2.51    Namibia                   2.84
 Mauritania                              2.46    Rwanda                    2.27
 Mauritius                                       Sierra Leone
 Niger                                   3.15    Uganda                    3.14
 Nigeria                                 2.91    Zimbabwe                  3.18
 Sao Tome and
 Principe                                2.31
 Senegal                                 2.78
 South Africa                            2.33
 Swaziland                               2.90
 Tanzania, United Rep
 of                                      3.17
 Togo                                    2.85
 Zambia                                  3.11
 NC simple average                       2.78    C simple average          2.62



 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances

                                      Non-
                                    conflict 1    Conflict 2
 Mean                                     2.78          2.62
 Variance                                 0.17          0.14
 Observations                          24.00           16.00
 Pooled Variance                          0.16
 Hypothesized Mean Difference             0.00
 df                                     38.00
 t Stat                                   1.19
 P(T<=t) one-tail                         0.12
 t Critical one-tail                      1.69
 P(T<=t) two-tail                         0.24
 t Critical two-tail                      2.02



                                                                                  75
 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal
 Variances

                                          Non-
                                        conflict 1   Conflict 2
 Mean                                         2.78         2.62
 Variance                                     0.17         0.14
 Observations                              24.00          16.00
 Hypothesized Mean Difference                 0.00
 df                                         35.00
 t Stat                                       1.22
 P(T<=t) one-tail                             0.12
 t Critical one-tail                          1.69
 P(T<=t) two-tail                             0.23
 t Critical two-tail                          2.03



The probability of having a difference in means is 0.12 (one-tailed) and 0.23 (two-tailed).

Null hypothesis:       no mean difference

t-value:               1.22

Critical t-value:      1.69 one tail
                       2.03 two tails

Our t-value does fall within the -1.69 to 1.69 interval. Therefore, we do not reject the null
hypothesis, so the means are not different




                                                                                                76
4. Differences in periods

Average growth rate before and after 1980

Value of total agricultural production


                           Average annual growth rate

              8

              6

              4

              2
   Growth %




                                                                          RATE 1961-79
              0
                                                                          RATE 1980-2004
                   0         20                 40                   60
              -2

              -4

              -6

              -8


There are no significant differences in the averages.

                                               RATE       RATE
 Country                Situation   Location   61-79      80-04
 Angola                 conflict    southern       0.08       3.06
                        non-
 Benin                  conflict    western       2.33       6.07
                        non-
 Botswana               conflict    southern      2.07       0.26
                        non-
 Burkina Faso           conflict    western       1.64       5.03
 Burundi                conflict    eastern       1.58       0.63
                        non-
 Cameroon               conflict    central       3.26       3.42
                        non-
 Cape Verde             conflict    western       -1.88      4.13
 Central African
 Republic               conflict    central       3.02       2.71
 Chad                   conflict    western       0.15       3.59
                        non-
 Comoros                conflict    eastern       1.92       2.47
 Congo, Dem Republic
 of                     conflict    central       2.03       0.15
 Congo, Republic of     conflict    central       1.26       1.79
 Côte d'Ivoire          conflict    western       4.91       2.86



                                                                                       77
                        non-
Djibouti                conflict   eastern      5.48     2.00
Equatorial Guinea                  central     -5.56     1.52
Eritrea                 conflict   eastern      1.06   -17.62
Ethiopia                conflict   eastern      1.06     1.42
Ethiopia PDR                       eastern      1.06
                        non-
Gabon                   conflict    central    2.25     1.95
                        non-
Gambia                  conflict    western    0.10     0.38
                        non-
Ghana                   conflict    western     1.07    5.37
Guinea                  conflict    western     1.48    3.08
Guinea-Bissau           conflict    western    -0.16    2.99
                        non-
Kenya                   conflict    eastern    3.63     3.02
                        non-
Lesotho                 conflict    southern   1.05      0.40
Liberia                 conflict    western    3.59     -0.20
                        non-
Madagascar              conflict    southern   2.16     1.12
                        non-
Malawi                  conflict    southern   4.23     2.93
                        non-
Mali                    conflict    western    2.11     3.22
                        non-
Mauritania              conflict    western    -0.11    1.80
                        non-
Mauritius               conflict    southern   1.46     0.70
Mozambique              conflict    southern   1.39     1.84
Namibia                 conflict    southern   1.84     0.49
                        non-
Niger                   conflict    western    0.47     3.08
                        non-
Nigeria                 conflict    western    0.85     5.46
Rwanda                  conflict    eastern    4.21     0.60
Réunion                 non-conflict           1.22     2.21
Sao Tome and            non-
Principe                conflict    central    -1.51    2.52
                        non-
Senegal                 conflict    western    0.50     1.58
                        non-
Seychelles              conflict    eastern    -1.24     0.60
Sierra Leone            conflict    western     2.01    -0.13
                        non-
South Africa            conflict    southern   2.80     1.19
Sudan                   conflict    eastern    3.30     2.86
                        non-
Swaziland               conflict    southern   4.18     -0.01
Tanzania, United Rep of             eastern    3.49      1.50
                        non-
Togo                    conflict    western    1.42     3.48
Uganda                  conflict    eastern    4.19     2.88
                        non-
Zambia                  conflict    southern   4.02     2.09
Zimbabwe                conflict    southern   3.79     1.52




                                                                78
4. Incidence of drought
D= significant shortage of rain
Country                1970   1971   1972   1973   1974    1975    1976    1977   1978   1979    1980
Angola
Benin                                                                      D
Botswana                                    D
Burkina Faso                         D      D                              D
Burundi
Cameroon
Cape Verde                           D      D                              D
Central African Rep                  D      D                              D
Chad                                 D      D                              D
Comoros
Congo, Dem Rep of
Congo, Republic of
Côte d'Ivoire                                                              D
Djibouti
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Ethiopia PDR                                D
Gabon
Gambia                               D      D                              D
Ghana                                                                      D
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau                        D      D                              D
Kenya
Lesotho                                     D
Liberia
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali                                 D      D                              D
Mauritania                           D      D                              D
Mauritius
Mozambique
Namibia
Niger                                D      D                              D
Nigeria
Rwanda
Réunion
Sao Tome&Principe
Senegal                              D      D                              D
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
South Africa                                D
Sudan                                D      D                              D
Swaziland                                   D
                                                   south   south   south
Tanzania, UnitRep of                               D       D       D       D
Togo                                                                       D
Uganda
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Source: FAO Agrometeorology series. Number 9. Gommes, R & Petrassi, F, 1994.


                                                                                                79
                            1980    1981    1982    1983    1984    1985    1986    1987    1988    1989
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA             ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 excluding South Africa        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 excluding South Africa &
Nigeria                        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Angola                        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
                                               ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Benin                         ..      ..
                                              D       D       D       D       D       D        ..      ..
 Botswana                      ..      ..
                                               ..     D       D        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Burkina Faso                  ..      ..
                               ..      ..     D       D       D        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Burundi
 Cameroon                      ..      ..      ..     D        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..

 Cape Verde                    ..     D       D       D       D       D        ..      ..      ..      ..
 Central African Republic      ..      ..      ..     D       D        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Chad                          ..      ..      ..     D       D        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
                               ..      ..      ..     ..      ..       ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Comoros
 Congo, Democratic Rep.                        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
                               ..      ..
of
                                               ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Congo, Republic of            ..      ..

 Côte d'Ivoire                 ..      ..      ..     D        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Djibouti                      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
                               ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Equatorial Guinea
 Eritrea                                               ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Ethiopia                      D      D        ..      ..     D       D        ..     D       D        ..
 Gabon                         ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..

 Gambia, The                   ..      ..     ..      ..      ..       ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
                               ..      ..     D       D       D        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Ghana
                                                                       ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Guinea                        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Guinea-Bissau                 ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Kenya                         ..      ..      ..      ..     D        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Lesotho                       ..      ..     D       D        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
                               ..      ..     ..      ..       ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Liberia
 Madagascar                    ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Malawi                        D      D        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Mali                          ..      ..     D       D       D        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..

 Mauritania                    ..      ..      ..     D       D        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
                               ..      ..      ..     D       ..       ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Mauritius
                                              D        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Mozambique                    ..     D
                                               ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Namibia                       ..      ..
                                               ..     D       D        ..      ..     D        ..      ..
 Niger                         ..      ..

 Nigeria                       ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Rwanda                        ..      ..     ..      ..      D        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
                               ..      ..     D       D       ..       ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 São Tomé and Principe
 Senegal                       D       ..      ..     D       D        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
                                               ..     ..      ..       ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Seychelles                    ..      ..

 Sierra Leone                  ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Somalia                       ..      ..      ..     D        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 South Africa                  ..      ..      ..      ..     ..       ..      ..     ..       ..     ..
                               ..      ..      ..      ..     D        ..      ..     D        ..     D
 Sudan
                                              D        ..      ..      ..      ..     D        ..      ..
 Swaziland                     ..      ..
                                               ..      ..     D       D        ..      ..      ..      ..
 Tanzania                      ..      ..

 Togo                          ..      ..      ..     D        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Uganda                        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Zambia                        ..      ..     D       D       D        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
                               ..      ..     D       D       D        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Zimbabwe




                                                                                                            80
                            1990    1991    1992    1993    1994    1995    1996    1997    1998    1999    2000    2001    2002    2003
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA             ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 excluding South Africa        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 excluding South Africa &
Nigeria                        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Angola                        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
                               ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Benin
                               ..      ..     D        ..      ..     D        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Botswana
                               ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..     D        ..      ..     D        ..      ..      ..
 Burkina Faso
                               ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..     D       D       D        ..      ..      ..
 Burundi
 Cameroon                      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..     D       D        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..

 Cape Verde                    ..      ..      ..     D       D        ..      ..     D       D       D       D       D       D       D
 Central African Republic      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Chad                          ..      ..      ..     D        ..     D       D       D        ..     D       D        ..      ..      ..
                               ..      ..      ..     ..       ..     ..      ..      ..       ..     ..      ..       ..      ..      ..
 Comoros
 Congo, Democratic Rep.        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
of
                               ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Congo, Republic of
 Côte d'Ivoire                 ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..     D        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Djibouti                      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..     D       D        ..      ..      ..
                               ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..     ..      ..       ..      ..      ..
 Equatorial Guinea
 Eritrea                       ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..     D       D        ..     D       D
                                                                                                                      D       D       D
 Ethiopia                      ..     D       D        ..     D        ..      ..     D        ..     D       D
                                                                                                                      D       D       D
 Gabon                         ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..     ..      ..      ..

 Gambia, The                   ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..     ..       ..     ..       ..      ..      ..
                               ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..     D        ..     D        ..      ..      ..
 Ghana
                               ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Guinea
 Guinea-Bissau                 ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Kenya                         ..      ..     D       D        ..      ..      ..     D       D       D       D       D       D       D
 Lesotho                       ..      ..     D        ..      ..     D        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
                               ..      ..     ..       ..      ..     ..       ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Liberia
 Madagascar                    ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..     D       D
                                                                                                                      D       D       D
 Malawi                        ..      ..     D        ..     D       D        ..     D       D        ..      ..     ..              ..
                                                                                                                              D
 Mali                          ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..     ..       ..

 Mauritania                    ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..     D       D       D
                               ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..     ..      ..      ..
 Mauritius
                               ..      ..     D        ..      ..     D        ..      ..     D        ..      ..
 Mozambique                                                                                                           D       D       D
                               ..      ..     D        ..      ..     D        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..     ..      ..      ..
 Namibia
                              D        ..      ..      ..      ..     D       D       D        ..      ..     D        ..      ..      ..
 Niger
 Nigeria                       ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Rwanda                        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..     D       D        ..     D       D       D        ..      ..      ..
                               ..      ..      ..      ..      ..     ..      ..       ..     ..      ..      ..       ..      ..      ..
 São Tomé and Principe
 Senegal                       ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
                               ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Seychelles
 Sierra Leone                  ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Somalia                       ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..     D        ..      ..     D       D       D
 South Africa                 ..       ..     D        ..      ..     D        ..     D        ..      ..     ..      ..      ..      ..
                              D        ..     ..       ..      ..     D        ..     D        ..      ..     D       D       D       D
 Sudan
                               ..      ..     D        ..      ..     D        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..
 Swaziland                                                                                                            D       D       D
                               ..      ..     D        ..      ..      ..      ..     D       D       D       D       ..
 Tanzania                                                                                                                     D       D
 Togo                          ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..     D        ..      ..      ..
 Uganda                        ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..     D        ..     D       D       D       D       D
 Zambia                        ..      ..     D        ..     D       D        ..     D       D        ..      ..     D       D       D
                               ..      ..     D        ..     D       D        ..     ..      ..       ..      ..     D       D       D
 Zimbabwe
Source: African Development Indicators, WB (2004)


                                                                                                                      81
5. FAO indices of agricultural production
PIN's are calculated at constant prices using the same set of weights for all countries and regions in
the world. These weights are the international prices calculated at international dollars

The FAO indices of agricultural production show the relative level of the aggregate volume of
agricultural production for each year in comparison with the base period 1999-2001. They are
based on the sum of price-weighted quantities of different agricultural commodities produced
after deductions of quantities used as seed and feed weighted in a similar manner. The
resulting aggregate represents, therefore, disposable production for any use except as seed and
feed.

All the indices at the country, regional and world levels are calculated by the Laspeyres
formula. Production quantities of each commodity are weighted by 1999-2001 average
international commodity prices and summed for each year. To obtain the index, the aggregate
for a given year is divided by the average aggregate for the base period 1999-2001.

Since the FAO indices are based on the concept of agriculture as a single enterprise, amounts
of seed and feed are subtracted from the production data to avoid double counting them, once
in the production data and once with the crops or livestock produced from them. Deductions
for seed (in the case of eggs, for hatching) and for livestock and poultry feed apply to both
domestically produced and imported commodities. They cover only primary agricultural
products destined to animal feed (e.g. maize, potatoes, milk, etc.). Processed and semi-
processed feed items such as bran, oilcakes, meals and molasses have been completely
excluded from the calculations at all stages.

It should be noted that when calculating indices of agricultural, food and nonfood production,
all intermediate primary inputs of agricultural origin are deducted. However, for indices of
any other commodity group, only inputs originating from within the same group are deducted;
thus, only seed is removed from the group “crops” and from all crop subgroups, such as
cereals, oil crops, etc.; and both feed and seed originating from within the livestock sector
(e.g. milk feed, hatching eggs) are removed from the group “livestock products”. For the main
two livestock subgroups, namely, meat and milk, only feed originating from the respective
subgroup is removed.

The”international commodity prices” are used in order to avoid the use of exchange rates for
obtaining continental and world aggregates, and also to improve and facilitate international
comparative analysis of productivity at the national level. These” international prices”,
expressed in so-called”international dollars”, are derived using a Geary-Khamis formula for
the agricultural sector. This method assigns a single “price” to each commodity. For example,
one metric ton of wheat has the same price regardless of the country where it was produced.
The currency unit in which the prices are expressed has no influence on the indices published.

The commodities covered in the computation of indices of agricultural production are all
crops and livestock products originating in each country. Practically all products are covered,
with the main exception of fodder crops. The category of food production includes


                                                                                                         82
commodities that are considered edible and that contain nutrients. Accordingly, coffee and tea
are excluded along with inedible commodities because, although edible, they have practically
no nutritive value.

Indices for meat production are computed based on data for production from indigenous
animals, which takes account of the meat equivalent of exported live animals but excludes the
meat equivalent of imported live animals. For index purposes, annual changes in livestock
and poultry numbers or in their average live weight are not taken into account.

The indices are calculated from production data presented on a calendar year basis.

The only difference with previous issues of the yearbook is that the base period has been
shifted from 1989-1991 to 1999-2001; the producer prices consequently also now refer to
1999-2001.

 The FAO indices may differ from those produced by the countries themselves because of
differences in concepts of production, coverage, weights, time reference of data and methods
of calculation.




Conclusions

Means of non-conflict and conflict are different in
      -average grs production per capita w/o outliers
      -average annual growth rate w/o outliers

but there is not difference in means in
        average annual growth rate per capita




                                                                                            83

				
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