SDM Mod 05 vJan10 Alternatives

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SDM Mod 05 vJan10 Alternatives Powered By Docstoc
					Developing Alternatives
               PrOACT

  Introduction to Structured Decision Making
Alternatives are…

… created after you decide where you’d
  like to go (with your objectives).
… focused directly on achieving
  objectives.
                      Example
1. Problem/Concern:
   Many rare lizards are killed during capture for pet
   trade
2. Objective:
   Eliminate mortality during capture
   Measureable Attribute: No. capture mortalities
   within 2 years
3. Alternative set:
   3a. Ban lizard sales   3b.           3c.
                      Example
1. Problem/Concern:
   Invasive Hydrilla is spreading in Lake Toho, FL
2. Objective:
   Minimize extent of Hydrilla in Lake Toho
   Measureable Attribute: areal extent (ha)
3. Alternative set:
   3a. Spray herbicide       3b.          3c.
Good alternatives require…

 Imagination
   • Don’t consider only ‘practical’
     alternatives

 Creativity
  • Think of the widest range of possibilities
  • Don’t be limited by preconceived ideas
Good alternatives require…

 Iteration
   • Build on your ideas
 Communication
   • Seek input from others

 Distinctiveness
  • Create alternatives with distinct
    outcomes
Approaches to Generating Alternatives

   1. Mine your problem statement
      and objectives
   2. Address conflicting objectives
   3. Challenge constraints
   4. Visualize – diagrams
   5. Create groups of alternatives –
      portfolios & strategies
      1. Mine your problem statement and
     objectives, especially means objectives
 Integrate your knowledge
   • Political; Technological; Scientific; Economic
 Identify assumptions & generate alternatives that challenge
  them
   • Example: Alternatives in forest management in
     Northeast
      •   Conventional replanting and aerial spray of herbicide
      •   Conventional replanting, hand cutting weeds, ground
          spray
   2. Address conflicting objectives

 Imagine the best possible consequences for
  each objective – create one alternative.
 Create hybrid alternatives, try to meet more
  than one objective.
Example: Address Conflicting Objectives
 Problem/Concern:
 Many rare lizards are killed during capture for pet
   trade
 Objectives:
       •   Eliminate capture mortality
       •   Maintain pet industry
 Alternatives:
       •   Ban sale of lizards
       •   Certify captive bred suppliers
Example: Address Conflicting Objectives
 Problem/Concern:
  Invasive Hydrilla is spreading in Lake Toho, FL
  Endangered FL snail kite breeds in Lake Toho and feeds on
    invasive snail in Hydrilla
 Objectives:
             – Minimize extent of Hydrilla
             – Maximize kite population
 Alternatives:
            a) Spray herbicide
            b) Stock native snails
            c) Spray herbicide and stock native snails
         3. Challenge Constraints


• Useful when few apparent alternatives are available
• Real & perceived constraints

• Expand options: scope, scale, rearrange, combine…

• Develop alternatives before assessing feasibility &
  efficacy
             4. Visualize!


 Use visual tools (e.g. diagrams) to help
  develop management alternatives

 Visualization as a method for generating
  alternatives, not for predicting
  consequences
Influence Diagram
     Alt A:
   Exclosures
                  PREDATION


  Alt B: Thin
  understory      AVAILABLE   POPULATION
                   HABITAT      TREND


     Alt C:
  Decontaminate
                   DISEASE



    Alt D:
    Culling
Migration Survival Hypothesis 1:
Crane Association and Roost Site Quality
Migration Survival Hypothesis 2:
Roost Site Availability
5a. Create Alternative Portfolios

 A combination of individual actions
 The portfolio now represents one alternative
 Can be discrete or continuous actions (e.g.,
  set of research projects, funding allocation)
 Portfolios may work synergistically
 Constraints used to limit number of possible
  portfolios (e.g. total budget for allocation
  across projects)
Portfolio: Portfolios for invasive sp. removal

     Target sp.     Costs ($K)     Ac. restored
        A               15              14
        B               7               18
        C               3                7
        D               12              32
       A+B          (15+7 ≠) 18     (14+18 ≠) 29
       A+C              20              35
        …               …                …
      B+C+D             20              40
     A+B+C+D            30              52
Constraints: 1) Sp. B must be eradicated
            2) Budget < $25K

     Target sp.     Costs ($K)    Ac. restored
        A               15            14
        B               7             18
        C               3              7
        D               12            32
       A+B          (15+7 ≠) 18   (14+18 ≠) 29
       A+C              20            35
        …               …              …
      B+C+D             20            40
     A+B+C+D            30            52
5b. Create Alternative Strategies

1.   Based on themes: Strategy Tables
     •   List management options in columns with
         increasing level of intensity in rows
     •   Select a coherent set among those to be your
         strategic portfolio

2.   Based on alternative hypotheses about limiting
     factors:
     •   Influence Diagrams again useful to link action
         strategies to means
Objective: Recover an Endangered Species


         Habitat Protection    Predator Control    Enhance Population

            Status Quo        Status Quo Harvest         None

                               Increase harvest;
          Ban logging in
                               reduce predators       Translocate
          critical habitat
                                    by 10%
                               Increase harvest;
           Create habitat
                               reduce predators     Captive Breeding
             corridors
                                    by 50%

                                                    Translocate and
                                                    Captive Breeding
Objective: Recover an Endangered Species


                     Habitat Protection    Predator Control    Enhance Population

“Maintain Existing
                        Status Quo        Status Quo Harvest          None
 Population (A)”

                                           Increase harvest;
                      Ban logging in
                                           reduce predators        Translocate
                      critical habitat
                                                by 10%
                                           Increase harvest;
                       Create habitat
                                           reduce predators     Captive Breeding
                         corridors
                                                by 50%
                                                               Translocate, Captive
                                                                Breeding, Maternity
                                                                       Pens
Objective: Recover an Endangered Species


                Habitat Protection    Predator Control    Enhance Population

 “On the Go
                   Status Quo        Status Quo Harvest          None
 (Dispersal)”

                                      Increase harvest;
                 Ban logging in
                                      reduce predators        Translocate
                 critical habitat
                                           by 10%
                                      Increase harvest;
                  Create habitat
                                      reduce predators     Captive Breeding
                    corridors
                                           by 50%
                                                          Translocate, Captive
                                                           Breeding, Maternity
                                                                  Pens
Good alternatives…
    Are unique (distinct)

    Are financially, legally, and politically
     reasonable

    Can actually be implemented by the
     decision maker
When do you stop?

  When you could be satisfied with any
   one alternative as a final decision.
  When your time is better spent
   elsewhere.
  When you’ve completed your SDM
   process.
 Objective: Recover an Endangered Species

      Themes: Habitat              Predator       Population       Monitoring
              Protection           Control        Enhancement
Alternatives:   Status Quo         Status Quo     None             None
                                   Harvest


                Ban logging in     Increase       Maternity Pens   Basic
                critical habitat   harvest;                        Monitoring
                                   reduce
                                   predators by
                                   10%            Captive
                Develop                           Breeding         Enhanced
                linkage                                            Monitoring
                corridors          Increase
                                   harvest;       Translocation
                                   reduce
                                   predators by
                                   50%
Good alternatives require…


            both creative
                 and
          rational thinking
Example: crane nest failure at NNWR
                               Pre-Season
                                Condition



  Drawdown        Water                       Inverts
                  Levels

                            Aquatic                     Energetic
                           Vegetation                   Condition
    Burning


                                                         Infertility   Mortality
    Mowing                                                              Rate


                                                        Abandon-                   Population
 Suppl. Feeding                                           ment                      Status
                                Black Fly Harrass.
                                                                        Nest
                                                        Predation      Failure
 Move Reintro.                                                          Rate
     Site

                                   Weather              Flooding
   Insecticide
                         Strategy Table
Themes →          Habitat       Predator Control Enhance          Monitoring
                  Protection                     Population
↓ Strategies
Maintain                        Status Quo                        Enhanced
                 Status Quo                       None
Existing Pop (A)                    Harvest                       Monitoring
                                Increase
Maintain                                                          Basic
                 Status Quo     harvest; reduce   None
Existing Pop (B)                                                  Monitoring
                                predators 10%
                  Ban logging   Increase
Increase Pop to                                   Captive         Enhanced
                  in critical   harvest; reduce
Carrying Cap                                      Breeding        Monitoring
                  habitat       predators 50%
                                                  Translocate,
                  Develop
Non-theme                                         Maternity
                  linkage
alternatives                                      Pens, Captive
                  corridors
                                                  Breeding
6. Revisit objectives

 Separate fundamental from means
  objectives
 Clarify objectives
 Examine (and re-examine) values
Other tips for creating alternatives

 The first list of alternatives is usually
  unnecessarily narrow
 Sometimes alternatives are obvious; but often
  they’re not
 SDM is iterative, don’t stop looking for
  alternatives
 Create first, evaluate later
Consider alternatives that …

 Are an ongoing process
 Delay the decision
 Gather more information

  These should be subjected to the same
     evaluation as other alternatives.
And remember …

 The first alternative set is usually narrow.
 Some alternatives are obvious, some
  aren’t.
 Never stop seeking – SDM is iterative!
 Create first, evaluate later.

				
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