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					Public Disclosure Authorized




                               Report No. 19797


                               Higher ImpactAdjustmentLending(HIAL)
                               InitialEvaluation
                               (In Two Volumes)Volume II: Annexes

                               June29, 1999
Public Disclosure Authorized




                               Operations Evaluation Department
Public Disclosure Authorized
Public Disclosure Authorized




                                Document of the World Bank
      Acronyms

      AL          Adjustment Lending
      APPI        Aggregate Project Performance Index (former DEI)
      CPIA        Country Policy and Institutional Assessment
      CPR         Country Performance Rating
      DEI         Development Effectiveness Index (renamed APPI)
      ESAC        Economic and Social Adjustment Credit
      GDI         Gross Domestic Investment
      GDP         Gross Domestic Product
      GDS         Gross Domestic Savings
      HIAL        Higher Impact Adjustment Lending
      IBRD        Intemational Bank for Reconstruction and Development
      ICRG        Intemational Country Risk Guide
      ID          Institutional Development Impact
      IDA         Intemational Development Association
      IMF         Intemational Monetary Fund
      LDC         Less Developed Countries
      OED         Operations Evaluations Department
      PSAC        Public Sector Adjustment Credit
      PSR         Project Status Report
      QAG         Quality Assurance Group
      QCI         Quality of Conditionality Index
      SAC         Structural Adjustment Credit
      SAL         Structural Adjustment Loan
      SECAL       Sectoral Adjustment Loan
      SPA         Special Program of Assistance for Africa
      SSA         Sub-Saharan Africa




Director-General, Operations Evaluation:                       Mr. Robert Picciotto
Director, Operations Evaluation Department:                    Ms. Elizabeth McAllister
Manager, OEDCR:                                                Mr. Ruben Lamdany
Task Manager:                                                  Mr. Fareed Hassan
Peer Reviewers:                                                Mr. Shantayanan Devarajan
                                                               Ms. Jayati Datta-Mitra
Contents
                                               Volume II - Annexes

1.    Setting the Stage for the HIIALProgram and HIAL Policy Inputs..............................1

      Review of Adjustment Lending in SSA Prior to HIAL......................................................I
      Initial Conditions........................................................                            4

      Table 1: Policies and Results in SSA........................................................                       2
      Table 2: Trends in Growth, Investment, Savings, and Inflation, 1980-1995                     ......................5
      Table 3: Adjustment Lending in Low-Income Countries FY96-98....................................7
      Table 4: Policies and Results in SSA Adjusting Countries.............................................. 10
      Table 5: Comparison of Selected Bank Lending Instruments.......................................... 11

      Figure Ia: Policies and Results in SSA ........................................................         3
      Figure lb: Policies and Results in 53 LDC........................................................       3
      Figure 2a: Policies and Results in Countries Selected for HIAL .......................................3
      Figure 2b: Policies and Results in Non-HIAL Countries...................................................3
      Figure 3: Country Groups Performance, 1980-1995........................................................ 6

2.    HIAL Policy Inputs.......................................................                                        13

2.1   Selectivity.......................................................                                               13

      Compliance with Conditionality.......................................................                            13
      Country Performance Ratings.......................................................                               17
      Borrower Ownership    .......................................................                                    18
      Debt Sustainability.......................................................                                       19

      Table 1: Compliance with Conditionality....................................................... 14
      Table 2: The Differences in Performance Ratings Between OED and SPA .................... 16
      Table 3: Prior Performance Ratings for FY96-98 HIAL and Non-HIAL
               SSA Countries.......................................................                  18
      Table 4: The Degree of Borrower Ownership in Selected Countries.............................. 19
      Table 5: Debt Sustainability in SSA.......................................................     21

      Figure 1: Selectivity Pattern in Adjustment Lending in SSA........................................... 15

2.2   Flexibility in Disbursement.......................................................                               22

      Conditionality .......................................................                                           22
              Number of Conditions and Front-Loading.......................................................            23
              Focus of Reform.......................................................                                   24
              Quality of Conditionality.......................................................                         41

      Table 1: Number of Conditions in FY96-98 Adjustment Lending Operations................ 23
      Table 2: Reform Areas of HIAL and Non-SSA Adjusting Countries.............................. 24
      Table 3: Conditionality in Adjustment Lending, FY96-98...............................................25
      Table 4: Quality of Conditionality for FY96-97 HIAL Countries...................................41
                                                      ii


Contents (cont.)


2.3    Extent of HIAL Implementation.....................................................   42

       OED Evaluations.42
       Progress Assessments of FY96-98 HIAL Operations by Task Managers.42
       Implementation Experience in the Non-SSA Adjusting Countries.43

       Table 1: Aggregate Project Performance Index (APPI) in HIAL Countries.42
       Table 2: HIAL Progress Ratings in Form 590s for 1996, 1997 and 1998.44
       Table 3: Non-SSA Progress Ratings in the PSR/Form 590s for 1998.45

2.4    Portfolio Performance.46

       Table 1: Performance of the Ongoing Portfolio by Region.47
       Table 2: Performance of the Ongoing Portfolio for SSA Countries.47
       Table 3: Projects at Risk for Countries Selected for HIAL: QAG Risk Assessment.48
       Table 4: Potential Problem Project Flags .48
       Table 5: OED Ratings of Completed SSA Adjustment Projects (FY91-98).50
       Table 6: OED Ratings of Bank Performance for SSA Adjustment Lending
                (FY91-98)                                   .51
       Table 7: OED Ratings of Borrower Performance for SSA Adjustment Lending
                (FY91-98).52
       Table 8: OED (1997) Index of Compliance with Conditionality and APPI.53

       Figure 1: Adjustment Performance Ratings for SSA, HIAL and Bank-wide,
                 FV91-98.49

3.     Policy Outcomes and Impact.55

       Table 3.1: Fiscal Primary Balance (% of GDP), 1975-98.56
       Table 3.2: Annual Inflation Rate on Consumer Price Index (percent), 1975-98.58
       Table 3.3: Real Effective Exchange Rate, 1975-98.60
       Table 3.4: Current Account Balance (percentage of GDP in current US$), 1975-98 .     62
       Table 3.5: Differential Between Domestic Basic Interest Rate and
                  Real LIBOR Rate, 1993-97    .64
       Table 3.6: Non-gold Reserves (weeks of imports), 1975-98   .66
       Table 3.7: Gross Domestic Investment (% of GDP in current prices), 1975-98.68
       Table 3.8: Real Per Capita GDP Growth, 1975-98    .70
       Table 3.9: Real GDP Growth Rate, 1975-98.72
       Table 3.10: Mapping Country Performance Rating (CPR) into Country Policy
                   and Institutional Assessment (CPIA).74
       Table 3.11: Definitions and Sources of Institutional Measures.75
       Table 3.12: Governance/InstitutionalIndicators, 1998  .76
       Table 3.13: Government Total Expenditure on Health (as percentage of GDP),
                    1975-98.78
       Table 3.14: Government Total Expenditure on Education (as percentage of GDP),
                    1975-98.79
       Table 3.15: Life Expectancy at Birth, 1990-97 .80
       Table 3.16: Infant Mortality Rate (per thousand births), 1990-97.80
                                                             iii


Contents(cont.)


      Table 3.17: Gross Secondary School Enrollment (%), 1990-96                           .......................................81
      Table 3.18: Adult Illiteracy Rate (% of people 15+ yrs), 1990-97                         ................................... 81
      Table 3.19: Age Dependency Ratio (dependents to working-age population),
                  1990-96 ..........................................................                                               82
      Table 3.20: Total External Debt as percentage of GDP, 1980-98.................................... 83
      Table 3.21: Seigniorage Revenue (Change in Central Bank's claim on the public
                  sector as percentage of GDP), 1975-98                  .........................................................85
      Table 3.22: Debt Dynamics Table..........................................................                                    87
      Table 3.23: Policy Outcomes and Impact (1996-98 compared to 1993-95)                                   ..................... 89

       Figure 3.1: Trends in Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA), 1995-98.... 90

4.     Policies and Growth..........................................................                                             91

       Table 4.1: Computed Variables..........................................................                                   92
       Table 4.2: Regression Analyses..........................................................                                  94
                                                1



                                                                                        Annex 1


1. Setting The Stage For The HIAL Program and HIAL
Policy Inputs
1.1     Before examining the record of reform and adjustment undertaken in SSA under HIAL, it
is useful to recall why the Africa Region embarked on this initiative, and what the region hoped
to achieve. The chapter looks, in broad terms, at the nature and impact of the adjustment lending
in SSA countries prior to their first HIAL-supported reform program, since these naturally
determined much of what followed. This annex also analyzes the "input variables" of HIAL-
selectivity, flexibility in disbursement, extent of HIAL implementation, and portfolio
performance.

Review of Adjustment Lending in SSA Prior to HAL
1.2     The experience of adjustment and reform in SSA can be assessed both on the basis of
policies implemented and outcomes achieved. Progress with regard to the implementation of
agreed upon measures in the areas of macroeconomic stability and structural reforms are
examined first before turning to the outcomes for economic growth and poverty reduction.

1.3      The policy reforms supported by the structural and sectoral adjustment loans (SALs and
SECALs, respectively) took place in conjunction with a macroeconomic stabilization program,
generally supported by the IMF. Several of the SALs and SECALs carried specific
macroeconomic policy conditionalities.           This annex provides a framework for the
macroeconomic analysis. Such a framework-a standard model on internal and external balance
that assigns fiscal policy to internal balance, the real exchange rate to the current account, and
interest rate policy to external balance in terms of foreign exchange reserves (Mundell 1962, and
Jayarajah, Branson and Sen 1996)-is utilized to establish the link between each policy
instrument and expected outcomes for each target.

1.4     The macroeconomic framework has been applied in earlier OED studies: The Social
Impact of Adjustment Operations: An Overview, and Structu7raland Sectoral Adjustment: World
Bank Experience, 1980-92. It is assumed that an unacceptably high rate of inflation indicates the
need for a reduction in the primary budget deficit, or an increase in the surplus. This is the
central component of almost all stabilization programs. It can be interpreted as reducing inflation
by reducing aggregate demand-or as reducing the need for inflation tax financing of the deficit.
Thus, the internal balance application is straightforward, and most of the countries that
significantly reduced their primary deficit experienced a significant reduction in inflation.

1.5      There are two objectives for external balance: maintaining appropriate levels of current
account or resource balance and stabilizing foreign exchange reserves. Most of the SSA
countries examined have adopted a "flexible" or "realistic" exchange rate policy-i.e., moving
the nominal exchange rate to prevent the currency from appreciating in real terms, or even to
generate gradual real depreciation. The objective is to limit the current account deficit, so the
path of the real exchange rate is tied to the current account position. Then the domestic rate of
inflation determines the path of the nominal exchange rate that is consistent with the targeted path
of the real rate. Most countries that generated a real depreciation lowered their current account or
resource balance deficit.
                                                             2


1.6      Many SSA countries have some degree of international capital mobility, so that if their
real interest rates go too far below international rates, there will be a capital outflow and loss of
reserves. Thus, maintaining an external balance-in terms of the level of foreign exchange
reserves-implies keeping real interest rates high enough relative to international rates so that
relevant investors are willing to keep their deposits and other investments in the country. Most of
the countries studied moved to positive real interest rates during the adjustment period and
improved their reserve positions.

 1.7     The macroeconomic framework is useful for illustrative purposes, but is not intended to
imply that these assignments are necessarily appropriate for all countries. Clzarly, the required
policy changes and their impacts are interrelated. For instance, fiscal policy affects the real
exchange rate, and monetary policy affects inflation. Furthernore, the impact of policies on
outcomes can be disrupted by exogenous shocks such as a deterioration in the terms of trade, a
domestic drought, civil war, etc. However, these shocks are taken into account in interpreting the
results for each country in the discussion below.

 1.8     It was not possible to analyze in detail each of 163 adjustment operations in 37 SSA
countries, amounting to nearly US$15 billion, prior to the launching of HIAL.1 Therefore, for
each SSA country a relevant adjustment period was defined-generally ranging from the
beginning of the first loan to a year after the final disbursement. This option is superior to the
OED Update of limiting the adjustment period to five years following the beginning of the first
loan for all SSA countries (OED 1997, page 64). Next, applying the macroeconomic framework,
SSA countries are compared across their adjustment periods, and sorted into four categories
according to the results achieved in utilizing different policy instruments (Table 1).

Table 1: Policies and Results in SSA
                           Internal balance                  Resource balance                       External balance
Policy indicator      Reduce primary budget deficit           Real devaluation           Reduce negative interes^rate differential
Desired outcome            Reduce inflation           Increase current account balance    Increase net foreign exchange reserves

Right policy,                      12                               10                                      5
Right outcome
Wrong policy,                      3                                 5                                      7
Wrong outcome
Right policy,                      10                                5                                      8
Wrong outcome
Wrong policy,                      4                                 3                                       I
Right outcome
Total                              29                               23                                     21
Source: Table 4.




1.9     The first category consists of "good" cases where countries followed the right policy and
achieved the right result. There are 27 such good cases or about 37 percent of the 73 entries
(countries were assessed in three different policy areas). The second category consists of "bad"
cases where countries followed the wrong policy and achieved the wrong result, a total of 15 bad
cases. The remaining two categories include countries that achieved results contrary to
expectation- the so called "grey" cases. For example, the third category contains countries that

ITheOED (1997)     study, Adjustment Lending in Sub-Saharan Africa. An Update, examines Bank's adjustment
lending experience in the region. The main findings of this study are discussed later in the chapter.
                                                     3


followed the right policy, but got the wrong results, a total of 23 "unlucky" cases. These are
presumably countries that experienced negative exogenous shocks, such as a sharp fall in the
terms of trade, or a drought. The last category includes countries that followed the wrong policy
but got the right results, a total of eight "lucky" cases. These are countries that experienced
unanticipated, favorable exogenous events.

1.10 These relationships are the focus of Figure 1. Generally, SSA results are weaker than
other developing countries. For instance, the OED Social Impact study (1995) of 53 less
developed countries (LDC) including 25 SSA countries, shows that nearly two thirds of the cases
fell into the "good" category, compared to only 37 percent for SSA. Furthermore, the unlucky
cases represent nearly one third of total SSA cases compared to only 13 percent in developing
countries.


                       and Results
      FigureIa: Policies                                     I       FigureIb: Policiesand Results
                  in SSA                                                        in 53 LDC
                Lucky
                11%              Good                        .            U     Lucky
                                 37%                                      Unlucky8%

          31%                                                               lad
                         Bad                 |                             11%            i          Good
                         21%                                                                         68%



1.11 Twenty-one HIAL operations were approved in FY96-98 in 17 SSA countries. HIAL
commitments to these countries amounted to approximately US$2.1 billion (of which US$1.4
billion have been disbursed ) and accounted for nearly one third of the Bank's commitments to
SSA (Table 3). When the countries selected for HIAL are identified as a separate group, the
results suggest that nearly one half of the HIAL cases fell into the good category, compared to
nearly one third for the rest of SSA countries (Figure 2). However, both groups have nearly the
same percentage of unlucky cases (Figure 2). Thus, policy performance and associated outcome
based on adjustments approved prior to the inception of HIAL approach suggests that, on
average, countries selected for HIAL outperformed the rest of SSA countries.



                           and Results
          Figure2a: Policies fResuit in
             Cguntriesse:Polctesand
                                 HiAn            |               ,                        and
                                                                         Figure2b: Policies Resultsin Non-
             Countries selected for HIAL                         ,HIAL                        Countries

                   Lucky                                                          Lucky
                    6%                                                            14%                     Good
         Unlucky                    Good                                                                  31%
          35%      i_________
                            46%                                            29
                                                                          UnluckW
                                                         I                 ~~29%/
                        Bad                                                                        Bad
                        13%                                                                        26%
                                                           4



Initial Conditions

 1.12 Growth performance in SSA has been examined by many studies and reports (OED
[1997], Elbadawi [1992], etc.). The OED Update which groups SSA countries as "good,"
"weak" or "poor" compliers with adjustment conditionality concluded that, overall, countries that
complied with adjustment did better in terms of GDP growth, than countries that did not. The
study showed that real GDP growth improved in the 1992-95 period compared to the pre-
adjustment period for 7 out of 10 good compliers but for only 9 of 22 weak and poor compliers
for which data are available.2 Economic performance for all of the three groups (good, weak, and
poor compliers) is provided in Table 2. On average, good compliers experienced an increase in
real GDP in the adjustment period with growth of about 3 percent per year compared to an
average of 1.7 percent for the pre-adjustment period. However, these countries only maintained
their adjustment period growth rates after adjustment. This average, however, conceals wide
differences in economic performance. The turnaround in economic growth was most pronounced
in Mozambique, Mauritania, and Ghana. On the other hand, in some countries (e.g., Gambia,
Malawi, and Sierra Leone) growth actually dropped from its pre-adjustment level. In fact, Sierra
Leone, a country rated by OED (1997) as the best complier out of 10 good compliers,
experienced a dramatic decline in real GDP (-3.7 percent) compared to an average growth rate of
3.4 percent before adjustment

 1.13 Growth performance also varied between the three groups of adjusters. For instance, the
weak complier SSA countries experienced a slight improvement in real GDP growth after
adjustment when it grew by only 2.1 percent per year compared to an average of 1.6 percent
achieved prior to adjustment. Nevertheless, only 4 out of 10 weak compliers (Burkina Faso,
Madagascar, Niger, and Uganda) saw an increase in GDP growth and only Uganda experienced a
significant improvement in economic performance. The rate of growth in the poor compliers, on
the other hand, declined slightly to 1.3 percent from its pre-adjustment period of 1.6 percent.
These averages conceal some notable differences in growth experience: GDP growth improved in
only five countries, deteriorated in six countries, and maintained its pre-adjustment period growth
level in one country.

1.14 As Table 2 and Figure 3 indicate, there is no strong evidence that adjustment programs
provided a stimulus to a better growth performance. Not only did growth not seem to be
significantly associated with adjustmnentperformance, but also the economic growth rate has
clearly fallen short of the rate required to reduce poverty. The OED (1997) Update recommends
a target growth rate (i.e., a rate at which the number of poor begins to decline, assuming
distribution neutral growth) of six percent for a typical Sub-Saharan country. Accordingly,
poverty maintenance (no increase in the absolute numbers of people living in poverty) was
achievLdin very few SSA countries (10 out of a sample of 35 countries studied by OED (1997),
whereas poverty reduction was achieved in only five countries. Two out of ten were good




2OED (1997) study reviewed the Bank's experiencewith adjustment lending to SSA from FY80 to FY96. The
adjustment period was defined as five years following the beginning of the first loan, and the post-adjustment period,
as 1992-95.
                                                          5


compliers (Mauritius and Mozambique), I out of 11 weak adjusters (Uganda), and 2 out of 14
                                     3
weak compliers (Eq. Guinea and Sudan).

Table 2: Trends in Growth, Investment, Savings, and Inflation, 1980-1995
                                            Real GDPgrowth                                            (%
                                                                                             Investment GDP)
                                                                                 GrossDomestic
                                                                 Post-                                        Post-
                              Pre-adjustment Adjustment        adjustment Pre-adjustment Adjustment         adjustment
                                 period       period           (1992-95)     period       period            (1992-95)
Good compliers                      1.7            3.1            3.0           18.8            21.6           23.9
Weak compliers                      1.6            2.4            2.1            18.8           17.5           15.4
Poorcompliers                       1.6             1.0            1.3           19.2           17.6           18.0
Sample average                      1.6            2.1            2.1            18.9           18.8           19.0


                               GrossDomestic      Investment GDP)
                                            Private        (%                      GrossDomesticSavings(% GDP)
Good compliers                      11.3           12.5           14.1           5.8            7.6             6.4
Weak compliers                      10.8            9.9           9.4            9.6            9.8             6.7
Poor compliers                      10.0            9.9           9.6            8.2            4.7             7.6
Sample average                      10.8           10.9           11.2           7.9            7.2             6.9


                                              Inflation
Good compliers                      26.5           23.1           21.6
Weak compliers                      29.3           34.0           26.9
Poor compliers                      9.4            17.2           25.7
Sample average                      20.8           24.3           24.9
Sample average
Source: OED (1997) Adjustment Lending in Sub-SaharanAfiica.



1.15 Other performance indicators-gross domestic investment (GDI) and gross domestic
savings (GDS) as percent of GDP-are examined between pre-adjustment and post-adjustment
periods (Table 2 and Figure 3). Good compliers had, on average, about a 25 percent
improvement in GDI and a 10 percent in GDS. Weak compliers had more than a 15 percent
deterioration in GDI, and about 23 percent in GDS, where these ratios virtually did not change
for poor compliers (Table 2 and Figure 3).

1.16 Inflation performance did not substantially improve in SSA during 1992-1995. Only 8
out of 22 countries saw a reduction in their inflation rate and only four countries (Gambia,
Mauritania, Mauritius and Senegal) have succeeded in decreasing inflation to the single-digit
range. The diversity of experience among SSA in reducing inflation is so marked as to preclude
generalization about the sample as a whole but a few important patterns can be discerned. The
rate of domestic inflation declined for the good compliers from an annual average of 26.5 percent
prior to adjustment to 21.6 percent in the four-year period of 1992-95 (i.e., an improvement of 18
percent). Similarly, weak adjusters managed to decrease their inflation rate by 8 percent. The
reverse occurred for poor compliers, where inflation soared from an annual rate below 10 percent


 3OED (1997) noted that the data for Sudan were not reliable. Recently Hassan (1997) concluded that the period 1978
 to 1990 revealed considerable deterioration of all poverty indicators-incidence, intensity and degree of inequality-in
 Sudan.
                                                                                      6


to nearly 25 percent. In a few poor complier cases-Sudan,                                                      Sao Tome, and Nigeria-the
inflation rate has ranged between 40 and 100 percent.


Figure 3: Country Groups Performance, 1980-1995

                                  Real GDPGrowth                                                        Gross Domestic Investment (% GDP)
                             MPre-adjstment period                                                             3Pre-adjustment period
                             UAdjustmentperiod                         jAdjustment                                         period
                                             (mrrost
                             O Post-adjustmerrt   recent4 years)                                              O Post-adjustment (most recent 4 yeas)


     5_ _____
   3.0




                         1
                        05          ;      1         4        1        i          1             f
                                                                                          0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1
                                                                                                     Z                0             [

   0.0

             Good compliers             Weak compliers                     omplies                Good compliers          Weakocompliers                Poor compliers



                       Gross Domestic Saving (% GOP)                                                                       Inflation
                       MPre-adjustent period                                                                   MPre-adj ent period
         I         i              peniod
                       *~~~~Adjustmrnen                            l                                                     periodjI
                                                                                                                Adjustment
                       OPost-adjustmrne           years)
                                       (moostrecentL4                                                           Post-adjastmert reent 4 yean)
                                                                                                                             (most




              compliers opiropir
             Good Poor G ea
              od
             Ge0
                Weak
                 compliers
                     complier
                         r              W0eD                                  l                      o c                                           _l
Table 3: Adjustment Lending in Low-Income CountrieFFY96-98
a. Higher Impact Adjustment Lending in Africa
Operations App,oved in FY96, FY97, and FY98 (in US$ million)                                                                                         2
                                                                                                                                                         Previous   GNP per
                                      Amount   Disbursed    Board     Closing                            Aim                          TranchesJ   OED
   Country               Credit
                                                             date      date                                                                       5/97   SACs       capita 1997
                                                210.5      02/08/96   01/21/99   Improve public finance management                      1+2f       PA       3          650
Cameroon        SAC II                223.6
                                                                                 Settle domestic debt
                                                                                 Restructure financial sector
                                                 51.0      06/25/98   12/31/00   Growth and poverty reduction with policy reform        2+4f       PA       4          650
                SAC III               180.0
                                                                                 in transport, forestry and privatization

                                       30.0      14.6      12/23/97   12/31/99   Promote private sector development                       2        N/A      I         1,090
Cape Verde      Econ. Refs. Support
                Operation Credit                                                 Liberalize the economy
                                                                                 Promote macroeconomic stability

                                                 29.7      02/15/96   06/30/97   Restore state's capacity to govem                        I        PA       2          240
Chad            SAC 1                  30.0
                                                 24.3      06/30/97   12/31/98   Restore critical public sector capacity                  I        PA       3          240
                SAC II                 25.0
                                                                                 Reorient public expenditures
                                                                                 Facilitate operation of the private sector

                                                264.2      04/11/96   03/31/99   Increase competitiveness                               1+5f       WA       11         690
Cote d'lvoire   Privatc Sect. Dev.    271.2
                Adj Credit                                                       Promote investments and exports
                                      100.0      50.2      06/23/98   06/30/01   Providc general budgetary support                      4+1f       WA       12         690
                Transport Sect.
                Adj./Investment                                                  Contribute to narrowing the external financing gap
                                                                                 Rehabilitation and maintenance of existing road
                                                                                 infrastructure

                                                 49.4      06/11/98   12/31/98   Promote macroeconomic stability                          I        SA       13         370
Ghana           Economic Reform        50.0
                Support Operation                                                Increaserevenue effort and contain expenditures

                                                 69.3      12/16/97   06/30/99   Restructuring of public expenditures (education,         2        WA       3          570
Guinea          Pub. Expenditure       70.0
                Mng. Adj. Credit                                                 health, rural development, and road maintenance)

                                                 79.8      06/18/96   06/30/98   Reduce poverty and unemployment through                  2        PA       7          330
Kenya           SAC 1                  153.4
                                                                                 acceleration of economic growth


                                                 67.4      03/14/97   12/31/97   Break the poverty trap by creating an enabling           I        WA       4          250
Madagascar      SAC I                  70.0
                                                                                 environment for investment

                                                 105.6     04/30/96   03/16/99   Growth and poverty reduction                            +lIf      SA       7          220
Malawi          Fiscal Restr. &        112.2
                Deregul. Program

                                       60.0      38.6      06/27/96   12/31/98   Provide stable macroeconomic environment               3+2f       SA       6          260
Mali            Econ. Mgmt. Credit
                                                                                 conducive to economic growth
a. Higher Impact Adjustment Lending in Africa (cont.)
Country          Credit                Amount     Disbursed   Board       Closing                            Aim                       TranchesJ   OCD2   Previous   GNP per
                                                              date        date                                                                     5/97   SACs       capita 1997

Mauritania       Pub. Resource           21.0        13.1     06/20/96    06/30/99    Enhance economic management capacity               3+2f       SA       5         450
                 Mgmt. Credit                                                         Improve public expenditure
                                                                                      Increase domestic savings

Mozambique       Third Economic          100.0       94.3     02/4/97     12/31/98    Increase growth, reduce poverty and dependence      2         SA       4          90
                 Recovery Credit                                                      on foreign aid

Niger            Public Sector Adj.      30.0        29.7     03/20/97    03/31/98    Stabilization and public sector adjustment           I        WA       3         200
                 Credit I

Senegal          Energy Sect. Adj.       100.0       0.0      05/19/98    12/31/99    Support a comprehensive energy reform program,      2         WA       8          550
                 Credit                                                               establishing a sound policy and regulatory
                                                                                      framework and fostering private sector
                                                                                      participation.

Tanzania         SAC 1                   131.5       77.7     06/20/97    12/31/98    Macrostability, growth and poverty reduction       1+4f       SA       5         210

Uganda           SAC III                 125.0       44.4     06/06/97    06/30/99    Poverty reduction, macrostability and growth       2+2f       WA       9         330
                 Educ. Sect. Adj.        80.0        0.0      03/24/98    12/31/00    Support the Universal Primary Education Policy      3         WA       9         330     °°

Zambia           Economic & Social       97.8        94.3     08/08/96    12/31/97    Promote growth and improve delivery of social       2         WA       9         380
                 Adj Credit tI                                                        services
Total                                   2060.7     1408.1
I f: floating tranches. 2 OED: Report no. 16594,Adjustment Lending in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Update.
  Compliance Rating: strong, weak, poor adjuster: SA, WA, PA (see text for further explanation); N/A: not applicable.
b. IDA Adjustment Credits to Non-SSA IDA Countries, FY96-98                                                 Aim                                Tranches]   OED
                                                                                                                                                              2
                                                                                                                                                                   Previous   GNPper
             Credit                  Amount    Disbursed   Board       Closing                                                                                                capita 1997
Country                                                                                                                                                    5/97    SACs
                                                           date        date
                                                                                                                                                   I        N/A       2          750
                                      25.0       24.6      12/09/97    12/31/98    Address some of the key structural weaknesses which
Albania      Rehabilitation
                                                                                   have contributed to the recent crisis
                                                                                   Alleviate the increased poverty an unemployment

                                                                                                                                                 1+3f       N/A       5          950
                                      66.3        63.0     07/06/95    10/31/98    Support the Govt's program to divest 6 public
Bolivia      Capitalization Prog.
                                                                                   enterprises through a process called capitalization

                                                                                                                                                   I        N/A        1         300
                                      40.0        36.9     09/28/95    06/30/97    Assist Cambodia's recovery and its continued
Cambodia     Econ. Rehab. Cr.
                                                                                   transition to a market economy

                                                                                                                                                   3        N/A       5          700
                                      115.7       73.4     02/08/96    12/31/99    Support the public sector modernization program
Honduras     Pub Sec Mod SAC
                                                                                                                                                   2        N/A        2         400
                                       40.0       19.6     02/22/96    12/31/98    Strengthen the institutional basis for private sector
Lao, PDR     SAC III
                                                                                   development

                                                                                                                                                   I        N/A        0         390
                                       10.0       9.8      05/01/97    12/31/98    Support the banking and enterprise reform program
Mongolia     Banking & Enterp.
                                                                                   Meet external financing requirements and support the
             SAC (BESAC)
                                                                                   budget burdened by reform costs

                                                                                                                                                  1+2f      N/A        3         410        v
                                       70.0       54.7     04/09/98    12/31/99    Carry out a major reform of the state banking sector
Nicaragua    Finan. Sec. Adj.
                                                                                   Improve financial intermediation, especially in rural
                                                                                   areas
                                                                                   Improve the regulatory framework for private banking

                                                                                                                                                       I    N/A        0          330
                                       50.0       49.4     09/12/96    09/30/97    Reduce the widespread poverty by fostering an
Tajikistan   Agric. Recov. & Soc.
                                                                                   environment favorable to growth, and by protecting
                                                                                   vulnerable groups during the transition period
                                                                                                                                                       I    N/A         1         330
                                       10.0        9.7      12/16/97    12/31/98   Ease the foreign exchange shortage
             Post-Conflict
                                                                                   Improve the performance of the social safety net for
             Rehabilitation
                                                                                   the most vulnerable groups

                                                                                                                                                       2    N/A        0          270
                                       80.0       76.7      04/09/96    12/31/97    Support the Government's stabilization and structural
Yemen         Econ. Recov. Cr.
                                                                                    reform program
                                                                                    Improve the incentives framework for private sector
                                                                                    development
                                                                                    Ease the shortage of foreign exchange needed to
                                                                                    finance critical imports to facilitate a supply response
                                                                                                                                                       2     N/A        2         270
                                       80.0        50.2     11/04/97    06/30/99    Improve the performance of the banking system and
              Financial Sect. Adj.
                                                                                    its role in mobilizing savings and extending credit for
                                                                                    productive activities
 Total                                 587.0      468.0
                                                                         10



Table 4: Policies and Results in SSA Adjusting Countries
                                            Internal balance                  Resource balance             External balance
                          Adjustment
                            period     RR    WW       WR       RW   RR          WW      WR       RW   RR     WW      WR       RW

 1. Benin                  1989-93            X                                                  X
 2. Burkina Faso           1991-95                     X
 3. Burundi                1986-92                             X    X                                 X
 4. Cameroon               1989-93     X                                                 X                                    X
 5. Central Africa Rep.    1986-90                                               X                    X
 6. Chad                   1989-93                                                               X    X
 7. Congo                  1987-89                             X                         X                                    X
 8. Cote d'lvoire          1980-87                             X     X                                                        X
 9. Equ. Guinea            1986-90
 10. Gabon                 1988-92                     X             X                                                        X
 11. Gambia                1986-87     X                             X                                        X
 12. Ghana                 1983-88                             X                                      X
 13. Guinea                1984-90
 14. Guinea-Bissau         1985-89            X
 15. Kenya                 1980-84                             X    X
  16.Madagascar            1984-91     X                            X
 17. Malawi                1984-89                             X                 X                            X
 18. Mali                  1988-92     X                                                         X
 19. Mauritania            1987-88     X                            X                                                         X
 20. Mauritius             1981-85                                                                                            X
 21. Mozambique            1988-92     X                            X
 22. Niger                 1986-90                             X
 23. Nigeria               1983-86                     X                         X                                            X
 24. Rwanda                1991-95                             X                 X                                    X
 25. Sao Tome & Prin       1987-91            X
 26. Senegal               1981-89     X                                                         X                            X
 27. SieTraLeone           1992-95     X                                         X
 28. Somalia               1986-89                                                                            X
 29. Sudan                 1980-86     X                       X
 30. Tanzania              1981-83                     X                                                      x
 31. Togo                  1983-91     X                                                         X    X
 32. Uganda                1982-86     X
 33. Zaire                 1983-88                                                       X                    X
 34. Zambia                1985-88                             X    X                                         X
135.Zimbabwe               1983-86     X                            X                                         X
|Total                                 12     3        4       10   10           5       3       5    5       7       1       8

Note: RR= right policy and right outcome; WW= wrong policy and wrong outcome, WR= wrong policy and right outcome;
      RW= right policy and wrong outcome.
      Countries selected for HIAL are underlined.
                                                                                                                                                                      Table 5
                                                                                                                                                                       1 of 2




Table 5: Comparisonof Selected Bank Lending Instruments
                                                      New Instruments                                                            Existing Instruments

                           Higher Impact         Adaptable Program Loan        Learning & Innovation    Technical Assistance    Structural Adjustment     Sectoral Adjustment
                          Adjustment Loan                (APL)                      Loan (LIL)              Loan (TAL)               Loan (SAL)             Loan (SECAL)
                              (HIAL)
                                                 * Providing phased but        * Building              * Strengthening sector   * Stabilizing the        * Support program of
Objectives             * Macroeconomic
                       stability                 sustained support for the     implementation          and core economic        macroeconomic            policy and institutional
                       * Growth and poverty      implementation of a long-     capacity                institutions             environment              change in a specific
                       reduction                 term development              * Piloting              * Preparing              * Promoting growth       sector(s)
                       * Public finance          program                       experimenting/testing   investments              and poverty reduction
                       management                                              * Developing            * Supporting public      * Improving efficiency
                       * Public sector                                         ownership               sector management,       in resource allocation
                       adjustment                                                                      divestiture, etc.        * Promoting the
                                                                                                                                openness of the
                                                                                                                                economy
                                                                                                                                * Improving scope for
                                                                                                                                private sector
                                                                                                                                development
                                                                                                                                *Strengthening
                                                                                                                                institutions
                       102                       64                            4.4 (with a maximum     20                       134.7                    162.2
Amount ($000,000)
(average)                                                                      of 5)
                       21 months                 3 years each/7-10 years       18 months               7 years                  23 months                3 years
Implementationperiod
                                                 overall

                       * Increased country       * Agreement on long-term      * Need for more         * Time-bound action      * Agreement on a         * Macroeconomic
Criteria
                       selectivity               program goals                 learning and            plans                    specific program of      stabilization
                                                 * Sequencing of               information             * Counterparts           structural adjustment    * Sector specific
                       * Stakeholder
                       participation             investments,policy            * Strong monitoring     * Consistent with CAS    * The program has to     adjustment program
                       * Complementary           changes and capacity          and evaluation                                   be politically,          * Consistent with CAS
                       investment lending and    building                      * Time sensitive                                 administratively and
                       TAL                       * Agreement on sector         * Consistent with CAS                            economically feasible
                       * Increased flexibility   policies, investments and                                                      * Maintain
                       in the conditionality/    financingfor each phase                                                        macroeconomic
                       tranche instrument        * Milestones and                                                               stability
                       * Measurable              performancebenchmarks                                                          * Complementary
                       benchmarks and            * Viability/justificationof                                                    investment and TAL
                       perforrnance criteria     investment to be financed                                                      * Consistent with CAS
                       .*Consistent with CAS     * Consistentwith CAS
                                                                                                                                                                   Table 5
                                                                                                                                                                    2 of 2



                                                          New Instruments                                                        Existing Instruments
                               Higher Impact        Adaptable Program Loan      Learning & Innovation    Technical Assistance    Structural Adjustment   Sectoral Adjustment
                              Adjustment Loan               (APL)                    Loan (LIL)             Loan (TAL)                Loan (SAL)           Loan (SECAL)
                                   (HIAL)
Preparation costs          241I
                              a                     305                         108                     225                     280
($000,000)
Preparation time                                    7.3                         5.5                     16.2                    28D'
(months)
Supervision costs (staff   29a                      22                          20                      19                      39"'
weeks)
Tranching mechanism        Floating tranches        None, but may have          None, but may have      None, but may have      Two tranches are the
                           directed to specific     conditions of               conditions of           conditions of           norm, three tranches
                           sectors reform as well   disbursement for specific   disbursement for        disbursementfor         less frequent, and
                           as regular tranches      project components to       specific project        specific project        single tranches are
                                                    ensure satisfactory         components to ensure    components to ensure    rare.
                                                    performance                 satisfactory            satisfactory
                                                                                performance             performance
No. of conditions        21                      N/A                          N/A                -        _I_            _    38                       N/A
a/eAverageof two HIAL operations, see Niger's ICR on Public Sector Adjustment Credit and Zambia's ICR on Second
                                                                                                                Economiicand Social Adjustment Credit.
b/ OED (1986), StructuralAdjustment Lending: A First Review of Experience, Table 7.2, p. 65.
                                                                                                                                                                               N

Sources: OED (1995), Structural and Sectoral Adjustment: World Bank Experience, 1980-92, Table 1.2;
                                                                                                    World Bank (1997), "Adaptable Lending-New
Investment Instruments," R97-203, August 15, 1997; World Bank (1998), "Adaptable Lending: Review of
                                                                                                    the First Year's Experience," Operational Core Services
Network, December 30, 1998; and Annex 1.3, Tables 1-3.
                                               13


                                                                                        Annex2

2.    HIAL Policy Inputs
      This annex provides a detailed discussion of HIAL policy inputs: Selectivity, Flexibility in
Disbursement, Extent of HIAL Implementation, and Portfolio Performance. The annex draws
heavily on the Africa Region's HIAL Update (1998), particularly on its judgment about the extent
to which the FY96-97 lending implemented HIAL proposal. However, the annex extends the
analysis to include FY98.

2.1     Selectivity

2.1.1. The first instrument of HIAL was greater selectivity in lending. This annex examines
four possible measurement criteria for selectivity: (i) compliance track record with agreed upon
policy conditionality (OED [1997, 1998]); (ii) the Bank's Country Performance Ratings (CPR);
(iii) OED's (1995) measurement of the degree of borrower ownership of programs; and (iv) debt
sustainability. The conclusion is that the performance of HIAL countries at the time of selection
was not significantly different than the rest of SSA countries, except on the second criterion,
where it was marginally better.

Compliance with Conditionality

2.1.2. A broad measure of policy performance is provided by OED's Adjustment Lending in
Sub-Saharan Africa: An Update. The update reviewed the Bank adjustment lending to SSA
during FY80-96, focusing primarily on the performance, outcomes and impact at the country
level. OED's country rating measures compliance with eight conditions (macroeconomic
stability and public finance, civil service reform, public expenditure reform, public enterprise
restructuring and privatization, financial sector reform, trade policy reform, pricing policies and
incentives, and regulatory environment) grouped in three broad categories: (i) macroeconomic
policy; (ii) public sector management; and (iii) private sector development. These three
categories were given equal weights in constructing the overall index which varies from one to
four, indicating full implementation, substantial implementation, weak implementation, and no
implementation, respectively.

2.1.3. The study categorizes 35 SSA countries as "good," "weak" or "poor" compliers with
adjustment conditionality and found a fairly uniform distribution among the three categories-10
countries had good compliance with agreed policy conditionality; 11 countries had weak
compliance, and the remaining 14 countries had poor compliance.

2.1.4. Table 1 shows the OED Update compliance rankings and picks out the HIAL countries
with an underline. The HIAL countries are scattered fairly randomly within the three categories.
However, there are only three HIAL countries among the 14 poor compliers. This significantly
lower share of poor compliers among the HIAL group may indicate selectivity in favoring
countries with adequate compliance experience. However, it is shown below that the actual
allocation of adjustment resources does not seem to provide sufficient evidence in support of this
conclusion.
                                                 14


Table 1: Compliance with Conditionality

        Category                    Countries         Ratings   Ranking
 Good compliers           Sierra Leone                 .1         I
                          Mauritius                     1.3       2
                          Gambia, The                   1.6       3
                          Ghana                         1.6       3
                          Mali                          1.8       5
                          Mauritania                    1.8       5
                          Mozarnbique                   1.8       5
                          Benin                        2.1        8
                          Tanzania                     2.1        8
                          Malawi                       2.2        10

 Weak compliers           Guinea                       2.5        11
                          Niger                        2.6        12
                          Senegal                      2.6        12
                          Togo                         2.6        12
                          Uganda                       2.6        12
                          Zambia                       2.6        12
                          Burkina Faso                 2.7        17
                          Zimbabwe                     2.7        17
                          Cte d'lvoire                 2.8        19
                          Madagascar                   2.8        19
                          Guinea-Bissau                2.9        21

 Poor compliers            Central Africa Rep.         3.0        22
                           Sao Tome & Prin.            3.0        22
                           Congo, Rep.                 3.1        24
                           Kenya                       3.1        24
                           Nigeria                     3.1        24
                           Burundi                     3.2        27
                           Gabon                       3.2        27
                           Cameroon                    3.4        29
                           Sudan                       3.5        30
                           Rwanda                      3.6        31
                           Chad                        3.7        3.2
                           Somalia                     3.8        22
                           Eq. Guinea                  4.0        34
                            Congo, Dem. Rep.           4.0        34
Note: HIAL countries are underlined.
Source: OED (1997).
                                                           15



2.1.5. The 1997 OED
report shows the lack of                       Figure 1: SelectivityPatternin AdjustmentLending in
selectivity in the Bank                                                    SSA
allocations of adjustment                      %
assistance      to the       region.           50.                             -- -----
Weak and poor compliers                        40     --

with         reform              and           32

adjustment    programs
received US$6.3 billion                          °0
(43 percent)          and US$4.3                                                                    ingamogHIAL
billion         (29      percent),               0                                               Lending
                                                                                          Adjustment pre-HIAL
respectively,           of       the                                  /             Au,        L
US$14.6 billion lent for                      E      E       2
adjustment during FY80-                      '0       g
                                                     IC
                                                              E
96. Applying the OED                          0
compliance rating, the
allocation of adjustment
lending under HIAL continues to reflect the lack of selectivity in directing the Bank's assistance
to countries with good track record of compliance with conditionality. Poor and weak compliers
are expected to receive US$612 million and US$1,024 million of HIAL commitments-
representing 29 percent and 50 percent, respectively of total HIAL allocation. Figure 1 shows the
similarity in selectivity patterns before and after the adoption of HIALI' This could send the
wrong signal on selectivity to bilateral donors.

2.1.6. On the other hand, a more recent OED report on "The Special Program of Assistance for
Africa," (SPA) indicates that bilateral donors have a better degree of selectivity than the Bank: on
average, in the period 1992-96, almost 80 percent of the SPA donor resources (excluding the
Bank and the IMF) were allocated to performing countries, whereas non-performing received
less than 10 percent of the resources, with the remainder going to mixed performers. It is worthy
to note the difference in performance rating between the Bank and the donors, especially for
HIAL countries. For instance, the three HIAL countries-Guinea, Uganda, and Zarnbia-that are
identified as weak compliers with conditionality in the OED (1997) Update are identified as "on
track" with the Fund program in the SPA evaluation. Furthermore, OED rated Sao Tome and
Principe as a poor complier whereas the SPA evaluation identified the country as on track. There
is a significant difference between the OED ranking and the SPA evaluation of countries in terms
of their compliance with conditionality. The rank correlation coefficient between the two
rankings is -0.57 (see Table 2).




 iAn   examination of the actual amount disbursed also supports this conclusion.
                                                                    16



Table 2: The Differences in Performance Ratings Between OED and SPA
                           SPA Track record (1992 - 1995)
                                                                                             Performance Overall   OED (1997)
                           On          On/Off     Off          ..   ff   OffO/Rev   JOn      Index'      Ranking   Ranking
Benin                           ....                                                              4           1         8
Burkina Faso                    ....                                                              4           1         17
Burundi                                                                                           0          22         27
Cameroon                                                                                          0          22         29
Central Africa Rep.                                                                               -2         26         22
Chad                                                                                              -1         24         32
Comoros                                                                                          1.5         18
Congo                                                                                            0.5         21         24
C6te d I'voire                                                                                    2          11         19
Equ. Guinea                                                                                      -0.5        25         34
Eritrea                                                                                           2          14
Ethiopia                                                                                          3          12
Gabon                                                                                                                   27
Gambia                           ...                                                              2          14         3
Ghana                           ....                                                              4           1         3
Guinea                          ....                                                              4           1         11
Guinea-Bissau                             ...                                                     -1         24         21
Kenya                                                                                             1          19         24
Madagascar                                                                                        -3         30         19
Malawi                          ....                                                              4          1          10
Mali                            ....                                                              4           1         5
Mauritania                       ...                                                              3          12         5
Mauritius                                                                                                               2
Mozambique                      ....                                                              4           1         5
Niger                                                                                            -2.5        29         12
Nigeria                                                                                                                 24
Rwanda                                                  ....                                      4          31         31
Sao Tome & Prin                 ....                                                              4           1         22
Senegal                                                                                           I          19         12
Sierra Leone                     ...                                                             3.5         11         1
Somalia                                                                                                                 33
Sudan                                                                                                                   30
Tanzania                                                                                          0          22         8
Togo                            ...                                                               2          14         12
Uganda                          ....                                                              4           1         12
Zambia                          ....                                                              4           1         12
Zaire                                                                                                                   34
Zimbabwe                                                                                                                17
a\ The performance index is the sum of the following ratings:
 I= On track, 0=On/Off, -I=Off, -0.5=/Off, -0.5 = Off/Rev, 0.5=Rev/On, 0.5=../On, where
On track countries sustained their reform programs during a specific year,
On/Off track countries went off their reform programs for part of a specific year,
. indicates countries with no program, and Rev indicates that a program was being revised.
Source: OED (1998), The Special Program of Assistance for Africa, and OED (1997) Update.
                                                           17



2.1.7. The OED compliance index fails, to some extent, to differentiate among country
performances. For example, 5 out of 11 weak compliers-Niger, Senegal, Togo, Uganda, and
Zambia-had the same rating of 2.6. Although compliance with poverty reduction was
measured, OED did not include it in the overall index. Poverty compliance was reported for 16
out of the 35 countries, showing an overall lower compliance compared to macro, public sector
management, and private sector development indicators included. Furthermore, the number of
operations on which the rating is based differs widely among countries3 That is, the OED index
is a 'long-term' measure that represents compliance during a period covering in most cases more
than 5 years and reaching up to 15 years for some countries. The rating gives equal weight to
compliance with conditionalities in recent operations as well as older ones and hence does not
fully reflect improvements in recent years (e.g., earlier attempts at adjustment in Uganda were
unsuccessful and ended with a political change and a fresh start at adjustment). It is worthy to
note that 46 percent of the first 13 recipients of HIAL support in FY96-97 experienced a change
                       year prior to loan approval (HIAL Update 1998)4
in regime over the 2 112

2.1.8. Recently, Dollar and Svensson (1998) examined a database of 179 Bank's AL loans
during the period 1980 to 1995 to identify why adjustment programs succeed or fail. They
concluded that a few political economy factors-political stability (measured by average number
of crises during the implementation of the AL), democracy, social division (measured by ethnic
fragmentation) and time in power (as long-term incumbents are not likely candidates for
reform)-can successfully predict the outcome of AL 75 percent of the time.

Country Performance Ratings

2.1.9. Another policy performance measure is the Bank's country performance ratings (CPR)
which are established each year for IBRD and IDA borrowers on a uniform basis. These ratings
facilitate cross-country comparisons, help formulate country assistance strategies, contribute to
assessments of country creditworthiness and risks, and, in the case of IDA, assist lending
allocation reviews. The CPR assesses country reform efforts over the most recent three-year
period in 25 areas grouped into three categories: macroeconomic stability, structural reforms and
                              5
portfolio performance ratings. Policy efforts in these areas are rated from 1 (lowest) to 5
(highest), focusing primarily on the quality and extent of policy reforms that governments have
instituted, rather than outcomes which reflect the combined effects of both policy changes and
exogenous developments. The overall rating is a weighted average of macro, structural reforms
                                                                      6
and portfolio scores, with weights of 0.25, 0.68 and 0.07 respectively.


2 The inclusion of the poverty reduction indicator would have substantially reduced the number of countries with equal
rating (for other anomalies of OED compliance index see footnote 3).

3For instance, Sierra Leone was rated as the best complier with conditionality. However, this rating was based on only
one operation completed and evaluated (out of three approved). Also, the period covered is the shortest of all countries
in this group (three years) and economic performance deteriorated as civil unrest increased.
4It should be noted that unless changes in political regimes account for past weak performance, thresholds for reentry
should be raised significantly.

5 The 25 indicators covered by CPR are grouped under three categories: (i) macroeconomic stability (inflation, debt
management, fiscal balance, and external balance (4 indicators));(ii) structural reforms (trade/exchange systems (2
indicators), financial sector (2 indicators), competitionpolicy and incentives (4 indicators), public enterprise (3
indicators), public finance (4 indicators), social sector (2 indicators),poverty analysis (one indicator); environment (2
indicators); and portfolio rating.
6 The CPR was revised in 1998 and became Country Policy and Institutional Assessments(CPIA) with a 6 point scale.
The mapping from CPR to CPIA is shown in Annex Table 3.10.
                                                           18


2.1.10. Table 3 provides cross-country comparisons of reform efforts. The CPR results for the
FY96-98 HIAL countries are compared with the CPR results for non-HIAL SSA countries in the
year prior to approval of the loan. The comparisons are made for the overall rating as well as for
the sub-components: macroeconomic stability, structural reforms and portfolio performance
ratings. A summary of main findings is provided below.

2.1.11. The share of low policy performers is much lower among the HIAL group than among
the rest of SSA in the overall 1995 rating as well as macroeconomic stability, structural reforms
and portfolio ratings. The overall rating of the seven FY96 HIAL countries showed the following
results: one country (Mauritania) was a high performer, five were medium performers, and one
(Cameroon) was a low performer, with a performance rating distribution of 14, 72 and 14 percent,
respectively. For the other 30 SSA countries rated the distribution was 3, 57 and 40 percent,
respectively, implying that adjustment resources seem to have gone to slightly better policy
performing countries. However, the seven countries with HIAL operations approved in FY97
were all low and weak performers in terms of the 1996 overall rating as well as structural reforms
rating. Also, FY98 HIAL countries were low and weak performers in terms of 1997 CPR,
leading to the statement that HIAL countries fared only marginally better in the CPR ratings.

Table 3: Prior Performance Ratings for FY96-98 HIAL and Non-HIAL SSA Countries (in
percent)

  FY96 HIAL and non-                                                  Performancerating 1995
  HIAL SSA countries                                                  (percentage countries)
                                                                                of
   Category                                  Low"                             Medium'"                        Higha
                                  HIAL        Non-HIALSSA             HIAL     Non-HIALSSA"           HIAL°       Non-HIALSSAD
  Overall CPR                     14.3             40.0               71.4          56.7               14.3           3.3
  MacroeconomicStability          14.3             43.3               57.1          43.3               28.6           13.3
  Structuralreforms               14.3             36.7               85.7          60.0               0.0            3.3
  Portfolioratings                14.3             33.3               71.4          56.7               14.3           10.0
  FY97 HIAL and non-                                                  Performancerating 1996
  HIAL SSA countries                                                  (percentage of countries)
   Category                                   Low                 _            Medium                         High
                                  HIMATL      Non-HIALSSA'_"          HIAL"     Non-HIALSSA'          HIAL'   Non-HIALSSAL
  OverallCPR                       14.3            33.3               85.7            62.5             0.0            4.2
  MacroeconomicStability           42.9            41.7               42.9            45.8             14.3           12.5
  Structuralreforms                0.0             37.5               100.0           58.3             0.0            4.2
  Portfolioratings                 14.3            45.8               28.6            4.2              57.1           50.0
  FY98 HIAL and non-                                                  Performance rating 1997
  HIAL SSA countries                                                  (percentage couniries)
                                                                                of
   Category                                   Low                              Medium             _           High
                                  HIAL'       Non-HlALSSA "' a        HIAL'     Non-HIALSSA'          HIAL'   Non-HIALSSA-
   Overall CPR                     14.3             41.7           85.7            58.3              0.0              0.0
   MacroeconomicStability          14.3             41.7           42.9            37.5             42.9              20.8
   Structural reforms              28.6             41.9           71.4            58.3              0.0              0.0
   Portfolioratings                28.6             54.2           14.3            20.8             57.1              25.0
a/ The 'low' level corresponds to the range [1 - 2.66], the 'medium' to [2.67- 3.66], and 'high' to [3.67 - 5].
b/ HIAL: 7 SSA countries; Non-HIAL: 30 SSA countries.
ci HIAL: 7 SSA countries; Non-HIAL: 24 SSA countries.
d/ Countries that had a HIAL operation approved in the previous year are excluded.
Source:   OEDestimates.

Borrower Ownership

2.1.12. OED's (1995) Structural and Sectoral Adjustment: World Bank Experience, 1980-92
study developed a measurement criterion for borrower ownership of adjustment programs based
on four dimensions : (i) locus of initiative; (ii) level of intellectual conviction among key
policymakers; (iii) expression of political will by top leadership; and (iv) efforts toward
                                                     19


consensus-building among various constituencies.7 The criterion was applied to 81 adjustment
programs completed through September 30, 1991, for 38 countries. The ratings of client
ownership were based on reviewing program performance audit reports and project completion
reports. The study found a significant positive correlation between program ownership and
success: of the 81 operations reviewed, nearly 75 percent were cases in which borrower
ownership was strongly predictive of overall program success.

Table 4: The Degree of Borrower Ownership in Selected Countries

                                                   Intensity of Ownership               No. of AL
         Countryl Group               Veryhigh      High         Low        Very low    evaluated
 C6ted'lvoire                                                                  X           3
 Ghana                                                X                                    3
 Guinea                                               X                                    I
 Kenya                                                X                                    4
 Malawi                                               X                                    4
 Mauritania                                                       X                        I
 Senegal                                                          X                        3
 Tanzania                                                                      X
 Uganda                                                           X                        2
 TotalHIAL                               0           4            3            2           22
 (Percent)                              (0)         (44)         (33)         (22)        (27)
 Other 9 SSA countriesta                 1            4           1            3           12
                                     (I 1)         (44)       (I 1)        (33)           (15)
 Other(20 countries)/b                 4             6          6           4              47
 (Percent)                            (20)         (30)       (30)         (20)           (58)
a/ Other SSA countriesinclude CentralAfrican Rep., Dem. Rep. of Congo, Rep. of Congo,Gambia,Mauritius,
Nigeria,Sudan,Togo, andZimbabwe.
b/ Othercountriesinclude: Bangladesh,Bolivia,Brazil,Chile, Colombia,Costa Rica,Guyana,Indonesia,Jamaica,
Korea,Mexico,Morocco,  Nepal,Nicaragua,        Philippines,
                                       Pakistan,           Thailand,Turkey,       and
                                                                           Uruguay, Yugoslavia.

Source: OED (1995), Structural and SectoralAdjustment: WorldBank Experience, 1980-92.



2.1.13. To assess whether a country's program ownership was used as a selection criterion for
approval of a HIAL operation, OED's ratings of previous adjustment programs are compared
with the ratings of the rest of SSA countries as well as other 20 Bank-wide borrowers in Table 4.
No HIAL country exhibited the highest degree of ownership; four had high degree of ownership,
three had low, and two exhibited the lowest degree of ownership, corresponding to a distribution
of 0:44:33:22 percent. For the other nine SSA countries, the distribution of borrower ownership
intensity in descending order was 11:44:11:33 percent. Thus, HIAL operations were not, on
average, conducted in SSA countries with a record of very high or a high degree of borrower
ownership. Similar results were obtained when HIAL countries were compared with 20 other
Bank-wide borrowers.

Debt Sustainability

2.1.14. Debt sustainability has been examined in previous OED and Bank studies [e.g., OED
(1997) Update, OED (1995) and Anand and Wijnbergen (1989)] by analyzing the determinants of
the movement in the ratio of debt to GDP. The OED (1997) Update looked at two easily
available economic indicators - fiscal deficit and GDP growth and to their relationship with debt:



7For eachdimension,                                           of           high,high,lowand verylow-
                     therewerefour levelsreflecting intensity ownership-very
                                                   the
yieldinga totalof 16possibleratingfor eachadjustment programreviewed.
                                                   20



                                      db = dD/GDP - bn                      (1)
where:

         b           =      debt-GDP ratio, D/GDP
         db           =     arithmetic (not percentage) change in debt-GDP ratio,
         dD/GDP      =      fiscal deficit as a share of GDP, and
         n           =      GDP growth rate, dGDP/GDP

2.1.15. The debt sustainability of a sample of 33 SSA countries was analyzed by studying the
components of equation (1) during the period 1991-95. The calculations show nine countries on
a sustainable debt path, leaving 24, or 73 percent of SSA with a rising debt-GDP ratio in Table 5.
For the countries selected for HIAL, four countries have a sustainable debt path and nine with
unsustainable debt paths, giving a similar distribution of 23 and 73 percent, respectively. Thus, if
debt sustainability was used as a selection criterion for approval of a HLL operation, HIAL
countries were not different from the rest of SSA countries.

2.1.16. A more sophisticated calculation of debt sustainability was provided by the OED's
(1995) Structural and Sectoral Adjustment: World Bank Experience, 1980-92 study in which the
government's budget constraint in real terms was written as a formula for the growth of the ratio
of debt to GDP:


                          db = (r - n)b + p - s                             (2)
where:

         b   =   debt-GDP ratio
         db =    arithmetic (not percentage ) annual growth
         r   =   real interest rate
         n   = growth rate of real GDP
         p   = primary deficit as a share of GDP, and
         s   = the ratio of seigniorage (both inflation tax and real growth in demand for base
               money) to GDP.

2.1.17. As all of the adjusting countries are international borrowers, their debt-GDP ratios are
positive. Thus, the sign of the growth term (r - n) will determine whether the debt process is
itself unstable. If (r - n) is positive, the debt ratio will tend to be growing by feeding on itself; the
country is borrowing to service its debt. In this case, for the overall process to be stable, that is
for the change in the debt-GDP ratio to be negative, the primary deficit less seigniorage term
(p - s) would have to be negative. Conversely, if the growth term is negative, the primary deficit
less seigniorage term could be zero or even slightly positive; the country could grow out of its
debt burden.

2.1.18. The study found 21 adjusting countries with a sustainable debt path-that is, the change
in the debt-GDP ratio is negative-and 13 with a rising debt-GDP ratio. For 14 SSA countries
examined, 8 have unsustainable debt paths. The similarity in results of the two approaches to
sustainability is evident from Table 5. For instance, the eight SSA countries with unsustainable
debt paths are also classified in OED (1997) Update as countries with growing debt-GDP ratios.
These are listed in italics in Table 5. Additionally, the three SSA countries with a falling debt-
GDP ratio are also identified by OED (1997) as on a sustainable debt path. Again, the
perforrnance of HIAL countries in termnsof debt sustainability is not different from the rest of
SSA countries.
                                               21


Table 5: Debt Sustainability in SSA

                                       HIALcountries                           SSA
                                                                   Non adjusting countries
                               Guinea                          Benin
                               Mauritania                      Eq. Guinea
Sustainable path
          debt                 Senegal                         Gambia
                               Uganda                          Mauritius
                                                               Mozambique
                               Carneroon                       Burundi
                               Chad                            BurkinaFaso
                               C6ted 'Ivoire                   CentralAfricaRep.
                               Ghana                           Gabon
                               Kenya                           Congo, Rep.
                               Madagascar                      Guinea-Bissau
Unsustainable path
            debt               Malawi                          Nigeria
                               Mali                            Rwanda
                               Niger                           SaoTome
                               Tanzania                        SierraLeone
                               Zambia                          Sudan
                                                               Togo
                                                               Zimbabwe
             in                         and      study.
Note:Countries italicaredrawnfromBranson Jayarajah

Source: OED (1997) "AdjustmentLending in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Update," Box 3.2, pp. 23-24,
                                              for        Policy Adjustment
                             (1995)"A Framework Evaluating
W. H. Branson,and C. Jayarajah                                                    Proceedings
                                                                         Programs,"         of
                         on         and           table
the WorldBankConference Evaluation Development, 6.3,pp. 68.
                                                        22



2.2    Flexibility in Disbursement

2.2.1. Tranching innovations under HIAL had two objectives: (i) to give governments more
freedom in the timing of agreed reforms and thereby increase ownership; and (ii) to reduce
pressure on the Bank to disburse in order not to threaten macroeconomic stability when
conditionality was not fully met, thereby increasing the Bank's leverage and credibility of
conditionality. These objectives were to be achieved through: (i) more and therefore smaller
tranches; (ii) using more ex post conditionality, i.e. disbursing after delivery of reform; and (iii)
breaking the sequential nature of the reform through independent floating tranches.

2.2.2. Prior to the inception of HIAL, two-tranche ALs were the rule, three-tranche operations
were less frequent and single-tranche operations were rare. Under HIAL, floating tranche
mechanisms were introduced in the Africa Region, and single-tranche operations promoted as an
alternative in particular circumstances. Nine of the twenty-one HIAL operations used floating
tranches, and five were single-tranche operations, indicating that about two-thirds of the
operations have adopted tranching innovations. However, it is interesting that the enthusiasm
seems to have fallen with the age of the initiative since in FY98 only two of the seven operations
had floating tranches and only one was a single-tranche operations, leaving almost two-thirds
with the old two-tranche arrangements.

2.2.3. As shown in Table 1, the number of floating tranches varies from one to five with a
minimum value of US$3.6 million for Mauritania's Public Resource Management Credit and a
maximum of 26 million for Cameroon's SAC III. Floating tranches are usually targeted at policy
reforms in certain sectors, and in several cases they are in addition to regular tranches. Floating
tranches in HIAL include reforms in the financial and banking sector, the parastatal and public
sector, privatization, and civil service reform (see Table 3 for details). A different concept of
floating tranches was used in a sector adjustment operation (PSAC in C6te d'Ivoire), where a
tranche release was triggered whenever any two conditions were met, one each from a list of core
and non-core conditions.

2.2.4. In the non-SSA countries, single-tranche operations-5 out of 11-were quite common
among the FY96-98 adjustment credits. This is partly explained by the fact that a number of
these were rehabilitation operations, and the majority of the countries have a fairly short history
of Bank lending having opened to market economy only a few years ago (Yemen, Mongolia,
Albania, Tajikistan). Two operations, both in Latin America, used floating tranche disbursement
mechanisms.

Conditionality

2.2.5. The innovations in the tranching arrangements were but one way in which HIAL
attempted to assist the credibility of conditionality. Other recommendations targeted
conditionality more directly, meeting criticisms of being intrusive and excessively complicated.
HIAL recommended fewer and better focused, but demanding conditions.'




 Given a better information on FY96 and FY97 operations, we attempted to construct an index for the quality of
conditionality (see Table 4).
                                                         23


Number of Conditions and Front-Loading

2.2.6. A reduction in the number of conditions would most likely improve govemment
ownership and sustainability. As Table 1 shows, on average, a typical HIAL operation has 21
conditions, which is significantly lower than the regional average of 38 per AL and SECAL
operations during 1980-93 (Annex Table 3.1 of the Social Dimensions of Adjustment study). For
post-effectiveness, a typical country had to meet six conditions for release of a tranche. On
average, slightly more than half of the conditions in FY96-98 HIAL had to be met up front,
which is in line with the recommendation of moie front-loading, i.e., more expost conditionality.
In the non-SSA comparator group, the number of conditions were also fewer compared to the
1980-93 period. On average an operation had 20 conditions, and a tranche post effectiveness
would have nine conditions.


Table 1: Number of Conditions in FV96-98 Adjustment Lending Operations
A. HIAL Countries
                              No. of board    No. of Post-                                                   Average No. of
                              Effectiveness   Effectiveness   Total No. of              Tranching          Post-effectiveness
             Country           Conditions      Conditions     Conditions                Mechanism         Conditionsper tranche
Cameroon     SAC II                10              15             25         1 regular    + 2 floating             7.5
Cameroon     SAC III               I1              25             36         2 regular    +4 floating               5
Cape Verde                         9                5             14         2 regular                              5
Chad SAC I                         13             N/A             13         Iregular                             N/A
Chad SAC II                        23             N/A             23         1 regular                            N/A
C6te d'Ivoire                      6               11             17         1 regular    +5 floating              2.2
  Priv. Sect. Adj. Cr.
C6te d'Ivoire                      6               31             37         4 regular+1      floating            7.75
  Transp.    Sect. Adj. Cr.
Ghana                              9              N/A              9         1 regular                            N/A
Guinea                             17               8             25         2 regular                              8
Kenya                              4               11              15        2 regular                              11
Madagascar                         13             N/A              13        1 regular                            N/A
Malawi                              1               3              4         1 regular     + I floating             3
Mali                                1              17              18        3 regular     +2 floating            4.25
Mauritania                         3               11              14        3 regular     +2 floating            2.75
Mozambique                         32               5             37         2 regular                              5
Niger                              15             N/A              15         1 regular                           N/A
Senegal                            13               6              19        2 regular                              6
Tanzania                            8               19             27         1 regular    +4 floating            4.75
Uganda/SAC      III                 6               13             19        2 regular     2 floating             4.33
Uganda/Educ      Sect. Adj.        14              31              45        3 regular                             15.5
Zambia                              2               11             24        2 regular                              11
Average                           10.3            13.9            20.9                                             6.4
Standard     Deviation            7.5              8.8            10.5                                             3.6
Mode                               13               11             13                                               5
                                                          24



(Table I continued)

B. IDA countries
                               No. of board     No. of Post-                                                   Average No. of
                               Effectiveness    Effectiveness     Total No. of           Tranching            Post-effectiveness
          Country               Conditions       Conditions       Conditions            Mechanism           Conditions per tranche
Albania                             17              N/A               17         1 regular                          N/A
Bolivia                             19               26               45         1 regular + 3 floating               8.7
Cambodia                             0                0                0         1 regular                          N/A
Honduras                             9               18               27         3 regular                           9.0
Lao, PDR                             5                8               13         2 regular                           8.0
Mongolia                            II              N/A               11         I regular                          N/A
Nicaragua                            8               18               26         1 regular + 2 floating              9.0
Tajikistan Rehab. (FY97)            19              N/A               19         1 regular                          N/A
Tajikistan Rehab. (FY98)             0              N/A                0         1 regular                          N/A
Yemen SAC (FY96)                    17                7               24         2 regular                           7.0
Yemen SAC (FY98)                    24               14               38         2 regular                           14.0
Average                            11.7             13.0             20.0                                            9.3
Standard Deviation                  8.1              8.7             14.1                                            2.4
Mode                                17               18                0                                              9


Focus of Reform

2.2.7. The frequency distribution of the reform areas is given in Table 2. Public expenditures
and revenues, the legal and regulatory framework, and the civil service and government
organization in general are the most common areas for reform, covered in about two-thirds of the
HIAL operations, and clearly in line with the proposed focus of the HIAL proposal. According to
the 1997 OED Update, these areas along with enterprise reform and privatization conditionalities
have shown particularly weak results, and constituted in that sense an unfinished reform agenda.

2.2.8. The focus of reform in the non-SSA countries was less on public expenditures, but
predominantly on regulatory and financial reform, a consequence of the different historic
background. The average number of reform areas covered in the comparator group is only
slightly higher than in HIAL operations.

Table 2: Reform Areas of HIAL and Non-SSA Adjusting Countries
                                                                                  In number of operations
                            Reform area                                 HIAL       Percent     Non-SSA       Percent
 .     Public expenditures (planning and management)                     17           81           4           40
     - including increased budgetary allocationsto                        9           43           2           20
       social services
 *     Revenue measures (excluding trade)                                 13          62            0           0
 *     Regulatory framework (product and factor markets,                  14          67            7           70
       agriculture)
 *     Civil service/governmentorganization                               14           67           2           20
 *     Financial sector including privatization of financial              6            29           5           50
       institutions
 *     Privatization of state enterprises, excluding financial            9           43            3           30
       institutions
 *     Trade related reforms                                              5            24           2           20
 *     Other-i.e., removal of gender biases in access to land and         5            24           3           30
       credit, policy reforms in the education, transport and energy
       sectors
Source: Table 3.
                                                                                                                                                                                         Table 3 - Page I of 16

Table 3: Conditionalityin Adjustment Lending, FY96-98
          Country                                                                            TRANCHE CONDITIONALITY

A. HIALCOUNTRIES
Cameroon:           BOARD PRESENTATION TRANCHE
SACII                I. satisfactoryfirst reviewof Stand-byArrangement;
                    2. publish a decree,acceptable IDA, stipulatingthat importduties are henceforthpayableon basis of PSI's companyassessment;
                                                    to
                    3. publish a decreestipulatingthat goods are releasedto importersonly on said company'scertificationthat dutieshave been paid into the Treasury's account in BEAC;
                    4. sign a contractwith designatedPSI company;
                    5. effectivelyterminateemploymentof at least 5300 civil servants, in line with Organizational StaffingPlans for seven ministries;
                                                                                                                and
                    6. informmagistratesabout the modified4 ordinancesand 7 decrees;amend the ordinanceon bank liquidation and the decreeestablishingthe "Conseil National du Cr6dit";
                    7. sign an agreementwith Soci&eGeneraleto restructureSGBCand submitto IDA a satisfactoryplan for the restructuring/liquidation for four other commercialbanks;
                    8. announcethe decisionon the futureof SOCAR,     CNR;
                    9. appointa judiciary liquidatorof AMACAM;
                    10. sign an agreementwith the bankers' association to secure of Govemmentdebt to commercialbanks and secure agreementfrom BEAC to open an escrow account.
                    GENERAL TRANCHE RELEASE CONDITION
                    1. satisfactory                                                                       framework.
                                   progress in implementingtheprogram, includinga satisfactorymacroeconomic
                    PUBLIC FINANCE MANA GEMENT TRANCHE (FLOA TING)
                    2. reduce exporttaxes by at least 10percent (except for forestryproducts);
                    3. increasepriorityministries' expenditures more than 44% of total spendingof all ministries(FY 96);
                                                               to
                    4. allocatein the FY97 BudgetLaw for the samepriority ministrieswhich in the aggregateexceed 44 percent of aggregate budgetaryallocations;
                    5. adoptorganizationand staffingplans and implementthese plans in accordancewith timetables;
                    6. adoptorganizationalplans,satisfactoryto IDA, and implementappropriateamendmentsto the laws to expeditejudicial credit recovery.
                    FINANCIAL SECTOR REFORM TRANCHE (FLOATING)
                    7. implementthe agreementbetweenthe Borrowerand the major foreignpartner for therestructuringof one bank;
                    8. placeone bank in liquidationand appoint a bankingjudiciary/liquidator;                                                                                                                M
                    9. separatethenon-performing  assets and depositsof three other banks from performingassets;                                                                                             U,
                    10. transferthe non-performing assetsto SRC;
                     11.restructurethe threebanks in a mannersatisfactoryto IDA;
                    12. executemanagement    agreementssatisfactoryto IDAregardingthe three banks;
                    13. amendSRCby-laws;
                    14. implementa new organigramand reorganizationof its personnel;
                    15. declarethat delinquentborrowerswill be preventedfrom borrowingfrom financialinstitutionsand bidding for the public enterprises and Govemment purchases.
Cameroon:           BOARD PRESENTATION TRANCHE
SAC III             I. adopta portsector reformplan and programaimed at improvingthe performanceof Cameroonian         ports;
                    2. present to the NationalAssemblya draft Budget Law for 1988-99,    acceptableto IDA as regards sourcesof and mechanisms for financingthe RoadFund;
                    3. publish the tender documentsfor the privatizationof SOCAPALM,      CAMSUCO,and SNEC;
                    4. invite designatedstrategicinvestorsin the railwayconcessioncompanyto finalizethe concessionagreement;
                    5. annulatethoseOctober/November       1997provisionalconcessionsthat had not been officiallyacceptedby the winners;
                    6. initiate,no later thanend June, a joint reviewwith IDA of the 26 concessionswhoseadjudicationwas notified in late 1997;
                    7. take corresponding   correctivemeasuresas necessary;
                    8. grant new concessionsand/or annual harvestingpermitson the basis of the results and recommendations thejoint review.
                                                                                                                              of
                    EFFECTIVENESS CONDITIONS
                    9. provide consistencyof the macroeconomic  policy frameworkwith the objectivesof the programon the basis of indicators agreed with IDA;
                    10.publish a decree,acceptablein form and substanceto IDA, definingthe organizationand functioningof the Road Fund;
                    I I.subjectall financialand savingscooperativesto COBACprudentialrules; establishnew rules accordingto the Ministryof Economyand Finance and COBAC.
                    SECOND TRANCHE (REGULAR)
                    I. establisha NationalPort Authorityentrusted withsecurity, police, and environmental  control and protectionfunctionsand the managementof public port assets;
                    2. permit theautonomousmanagement each port and transfer industrialand commercialoperationsand superstructuremaintenanceto the private sector;
                                                            of
                    3. establishthe ConsultativePort OrientationCommitteewith a majorityof port users;
                    4. make a provisionfor adequatetransitionalarrangementswith respect of the above;
                    5. establish theConsultativeOrientationCommitteefor the port of Douala;
                    6. implementrehabilitation  programfor the portof Douala;
                    7. implementoperationsof the RoadFund;
                    8. adopt a satisfactoryprivatizationstrategy for electricityand telecommunications;
                    9. completelegal action to merge INTELCAM the commercialactivitiesof the Department Telecommunications a telecommunicationscompany;
                                                                    and                                          of                      into
                    10.adopt regulationsdefining revisedselection criteria for the award of forestryconcessionsand annual harvestingpermits;
                    I11.adopt regulationsprovidingfor a clear validationmechanismof the adjudicationprocessof the awardsby an independentobserver,selected accordingto the Association;
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Table 3 - Page 2 of 16


         Country                                                                                      TRANCHE CONDITIONALITY
                      12. definea strategy for the appointmentof areas which maybe awardedas concessions;
                      13. implementa forestrytax revenue-enhancement     program.
                      TRANSPORTSFCTOR          TRANCHE(FLOATING)
                      14.complete institutionaland regulatoryreformmeasuresrelatedto the port sector;
                      15. completethetransfer of the port of Doualato the private sector;
                      16. set up 7 workingdays for imports and 2 wor-king  days for exports for clearanceof containefized goods in the port of Douala.
                      FIRSTPRIVA71ZAITON         TRANCHE   (FLOATING)
                                                                                                               and
                      17. invite bidders for the tendersof BICEC,CAMSUCO,SNEC,SOCAPALM,SOCAR, the 2nd mobiletelephonelicense operator.
                      SECONDPRIVA       TIZATION TRANCHE      (FLOA  TING)
                      18. invite themost successfulbidders for the tenders for privatizationof CAMTEL,CDC,CNR, and SONEL.
                      THEFORESTRYSECTORTRANCHE               (FLOATING)
                      19. publish in the OfficialGazette a regulatorytext govemingthe proceduresfor the approvaland monitoringof land-usemanagementplans;
                      20. establisha guaranteesystemto ensurecompliancewith land-usemanagement          plans, satisfactoryto the Association;
                      21. award contractsto privatesector operatorsfor the control of the land-usemanagement     plans and for the reinforcementof MINEF's capacity;
                      22. completea technicalindependentaudit for the forestrysectorto assess economicand tax potential;
                      23. submitto theNational Assemblyreformsconcemingindustrializationand forestrytaxation;
                      24. select areas to be reservedas communityforests;
                      25. reviseONADEF'sstatutes,in orderto clarifyits mandateand sourcesof financing,in form and substancesatisfactoryto the Association.
Cape Verde:           BOARDPRESENTATION            TRANCHE
Econ. Refs. Support   1. approvethe acceleratedprivatizationprogramand its implementation      schedule;
OperationCredit       2. revise privatizationlaws to ensurethat the authorizationto implementthe acceleratedprogramis in place;
                      3. begindisseminationof the Govemment'sacceleratedprogramto the public, domesticallyand abroad;
                      4. commit not to make additionalinvestments,nor to guaranteeloans to public enterprises be divested;
                                                                                                                 to
                      5. completethe ongoing 13 divestitureactions;
                      6. removeall remainingQRs introducedto avoid pressureson balanceof payments;
                      7. introducea macroeconomic     programthat will leadto a balancedbudget in the period 1998-2000;                                                                                              on
                      8. commit itselfto cease financingpublicexpendituresthroughdomesticdebt creation;
                      9. introducea three-yearrolling PIP and viable financingplan in the 1998budget.
                      SECONDTRANCHE(REGULAR)
                                                                                of
                      1. maintaina satisfactoryprogressin the implementation the macroeconomic ogram; pr
                      2. undertake24 divestitureactions;
                      3. liberalizethe procurementof food aid by issuinga ministerialorder which permitsall qualified importersto participatein the procurementto food aid items;
                      4. achieve satisfactory progress in implementation of the three-year iolliing PIP;
                      5. take all necessaryaction to submitfor parliamentaryapprovallegislationto removeall QRs.
Chad:                 CORETRANCHE(REGULAR)
SAC I                 1. restructurespecial enterpriseregimesto reduce their tax exemptionsin line with regional (CAEMC)    agreements;
                      2. negotiate specialcustomstreatmentfor private companiesand public enterprises;
                      3. centralizecollectionof intemationaltradetaxes at CustomsDepartment;
                      4. establishexonerationquotas for importsby diplomats;
                      5. abolish off-budgetoperations;
                      6. abolishthe 1996 budgetand 1996-98PIP, as agreedwith IDA;
                      7. adopt the law on a new membership   structure for the Board of the privatesector workerinsurance and social security institution, CNPS,reducingpublic sector presence;
                      8. preparean action plan to settle govemment'sdebt to CNPSand CNRT;
                      9. launch a study on the furtherdevelopmentof cooperativefinance;
                      10. initiate disengagement strategystudy for ONPT(posts),TIT (telecommunications);
                      I1. launch cottonsectorhuman resourcedevelopmentstrategystudy;
                      12. liquidate4 enterprises:SONACOT      (trading),BICIT(commercialbaiik), CaisseSucre (sugarstabilizationfund), and FIP (petroleumprice equalizationfund);
                      13. increasethe producerprice for first gradecotton from CFAF 120per kilo to CFAF 140per kilo.
Chad:                 CORETRANCHE(REGUALR)
SAC 11                1. initiate work on new organizational chart;
                      2. abolish automaticwageincreasesand adopt selectiveincreasesbased on merit;
                      3. preparedirect tax reform;
                      4. eliminatetax loopholesthroughphase-outof special enterpriseregimes;
                      5. depart additional7,000soldiersfrom the army;
                      6. eliminatearrearsto domesticsuppliers;
                      7. adopt PIP criteria;
                      8. continue switchin publicexpenditurepriorities,to bring shareof prioritysectorsto 62 percent of total in 1998;
                                                                                                                                                                                     Table 3 - Page 3 of 16


          Country                                                                                  TRANCHE CONDITIONALITY

                        9. strengthenthejudicial system;
                        10. simplifybusinessprocedures;
                        11.amend LaborCode;
                        12.simplify InvestmentCode;
                        13.ratify and initiate the OHADAtreaty;
                        14. implementan actionplan to repaygovernmentdebtsto CNRSand CNRT;
                        15. privatize2 banks (BDT and BTCD);
                        16.privatizeINT,SONARA,SOTEC,Air Tchad;
                        17.adopttwo-partseed cotton pricing mechanism;
                        I 8.adopta Revised1997Budgetand 1997-99Public InvestmentProgram;
                        19.adopta Letterof Policy in the electricitysector,committingtheGovemment to privatizationof its waterand electricityutility;
                        20.adopta Letterof Policy in the post and telecommunications sector, outliningthe Govemment'sliberalizationstrategy;
                        21.createa National Commissionfor Civil ServiceReform;
                        22.include,by officialdecree,farmer representatives the CottonSector MonitoringCommittee;
                                                                            in
                        23.reduceby an average15 percentof parafiscalchargeson cashand credit sales of farmimplementsby the publicrural developmentagency;
C6te d'lvoire:          BOARD PRESENTATION TRANCHE
PrivateSect. Dev.Adj.   1. adoptan action plan by the Council of Ministersto reformthejudicial system;
Credit                  2. incorporate first set of revisionsfor thereformof tax proceduresand penaltiesin the 1996BudgetLaw;
                                      a
                        3. approvefirst series of LaborCode implementation    decrees;
                        4. publishtexts of the I ' phase of programof trade liberalization eliminatein Budget Law99 exemptionsfor certainassemblyindustries;
                                                                                          and
                        5. createa portcompetitivenesscommitteewhich will be consultedprior to importantmanagement investmentdecisionsand implementthe I'a phaseof customsreforms;
                                                                                                                          and
                        6. issue decreesliberalizingbulk and refrigeratedtraffic as of January97 and establishtransparentcriteria for charteringships.
                        FIVE SUBSEQUENT TRANCHES (FLOATING)
                        Core Conditions:
                        I. implementa short-termaction plan attached to the LDP;
                        2. complywith specificperformancecriteria for Port operations;
                        3. fully implementan action plan described in the LDP;
                        4. liquidateGovemmentexport promotionagency CCIAand create a privatelymanagedone;
                                                                                               sector;
                        5. sell at least 51 percent of the voting stock of CITELCOMto a pr-ivate
                        6. privatizeOICso that the (Govermment public sectorentitieshold no more than 35 percent of the equity;
                                                                    and
                        Non-core Conditions
                        7. incorporate Budget Lawl997 the comprehensiverefonmof tax proceduresin penalties;
                                       in
                        8. incorporatereformof CustomsCode in Budgetlaw 1997;
                        9. publish remainingimplementationdecreesof LaborCode;
                        10. publish a decreerestructuringthe CompetitionCommissionand relevantdecrees for liberalizationof at least 3 activities;
                        I I.Repealand publish relevantprovisions of Law no. 86-485 and Decree 86-486 on mandatorymaritimeinsuranceof imports in county of destination.
Cote d'voire:           BOARD PRESENIATION TRANCHE
TransportSect.          1. nransmit decreemodifyingthe modalitiesfor managingroad bills of lading;
                                   a
Adj./lnvestment         2. transmitthe l.etter of SectorPolicy adoptedby the Govemment;
                                                                                            structureof DRV;
                        3. transmitthe list of personnelto key post in the new organizational
                        4. transmitthe Implementation   Manualadopted by the Govemment;
                        5. agreeon termsof referencefor first and second yearconsultancyassignmentsfor capacity building;
                        6. formallyapprovethe legal documentsas negotiated.
                        FIRST TRANCHF FOR THIEADJUSTMENT COMPONENT (REGULAR)
                         I. adoptthe 1998road rehabilitationand maintenanceprogram;
                        2. allocatein the 1998budgetarythe routine and periodicmaintenanceprogramsand equipmentand operatingexpensesfor DRV;
                        3. establishaccountingand auditingsystems for the program;
                        4. sell and effectivelytransfer SGMTPequipmentto successfulbidders;
                        5. carry out theprogramlaunch seminar and the three workshops DRVpersonnel.
                                                                                     for
                                             ADJUSTMENT COMPONENT (REGULAR)
                        SECOND TRANCHE OF THYE
                        6. maintainan appropriatemacro-economicframework;
                        7. implementthe overall programin a satisfactorymanner;
                        8. adoptthe 1999transportinvestmentprogramin consultationwith IDA;
                        9. fully commitexecutionof programmedmaintenanceworks;
                        10.provide full fundingof the 1999road rehabilitationand maintenanceprogram;
                        I 1.prove that the Government ceasedto executeroad maintenanceworks by force account;
                                                      has
                        12. confirmby a technicalaudit that informalroad transport controlposts are found only exceptionally;
                                                                                                                                                                                           Table 3 - Page 4 of 16


        Country                                                                                TRANCHE COND17IONALITY
                       13. increasethe proportionof vehiclescomplyingwith technicalvehicleinspectionrules;
                        14.prove that DTT has been restouctured agreed upon with IDA;
                                                                 as
                       15. adoptan action plan and timetablefor implementingthe recommendations the study of road user charges and road transporttaxation.
                                                                                                       of
                       THIRD TRANCHE THEAD.IUSTMENT
                                           OF                       COMPONENT(REGULAR)
                       16. maintainan appropriatemacro-economic      framework;
                        17.implementthe overallprogTam accordancewith the Letter of TransportSector Policy;
                                                           in
                        18.adopt the2000 transportinvestmentprogramin consultationwith IDA;
                        19.fully commitmentof fundsallocated in the 1999budgetfor executionof programmedmaintenanceworks;
                       20. provide that the 2000road rehabilitationand maintenanceprogramis fully fundedin the budget;
                       21. timely implementthe recommendation the study of road user chargesand road transport taxation;
                                                                   of
                       22. confirmby a technicalaudit that informalroad transport controlposts are found only veryexceptionally;
                       23. achieve increasein the proportionof vehicles complyingwith technicalvehicle inspectionrules;
                       24. provide that no contractorbills remain unpaidfor more than one month followingcertification of satisfactoryworks completion.
                       FLOATINGTRANCHE
                       25. enact thenew law govemingthe transportsector;
                       26. publish a compendium revised regulationsfor roadpassengerand freight transportacceptableto IDA;
                                                  of
                       27. enact the updatedMaritimeCodeand Port Regulations;
                       28. effectivelyestablishthe Urban Agencyfor Abidjan;
                       29. arrangeoperationsand managementof PAA's containerterminal and ship-to-shoregantry cranes;
                       30. restructureOSERin a manneracceptable IDA; to
                       31. sign theconcessionagreementfor Abobo/Yopougon       routes.
Ghana:                 CORETRANCHE(REGULAR)
EconomicReform          1.increaserevenue effortand contain expendituresin line withthe targets agreed underthe ESAFto reduce thefiscal deficit from 8.6% of GDP in 1997to 3.4% in 2000;
SupportOperation       2. focus publicexpenditures the provisionof basic social and economicservices,such as education,health , and sanitation,and rural infrastructure;
                                                    on
                       3. improvebudgetaryplanning,control and monitoringsystems;
                       4. acceleratethe divestitureprogram and move with nextphase of by targetingeconomicallysignificantstate-owned     enterprises;                                                          to
                       5. increasethe transparencyand accountabilityof the divestitureprogram;
                       6. strengthenthe legal framework the environmentfor privateparticipationin the generationand distributionof power;
                                                          and
                       7. restructurethe publicemploymentsystem,increasingrewardsfor performance,measuringoutput, and rationalizingthe regulation of the public sector;
                       8. eliminateor restructurethe "subventedagencies";
                       9. furtherreformsto liberalizedomesticand extemal markets.
Guinea:                FIRST CORETRANCHE(REGULAR)
Pub. Expenditur Mng.
              e         1.develop a medium-termexpenditureframeworkbased on nationaland sectoralpolicy pr-iorities aggregatefiscal discipline;
                                                                                                                          and
Adj. Credit            2. increaseresourceallocationto prioritysectors;
                       3. develop systenm ex-postevaluation of outcomes;
                                          of
                       4. strengthensystems for macroeconomic     forecasting;
                       5. improveprojectionsof their financingneeds and ensure effectivedisbursementthrough regularmonitoring;
                       6. strengthenregulatoryframework govemsbudgetimplementation;
                                                            that
                       7. strengthenregulatoryframework governsGovemmentprocurement;
                                                            that
                       8. strengthenmonitoringof budgetimplementation(financialinformationsystem);
                       9. improveand standardizebudgetaryclassification;
                        10.simplify budgetaryprocedures;
                        11.ensurecounterpartfunding;
                        12.develop a result-oriented,performance-based   system for thecivil service linkedto service deliverystandards;
                        13.increaseprimaryschoolenrollment(from 29% in 1989/90to 60% in 1999/2000);
                       14. ensurethe availabilityof non-wagerecurrentexpendituresin the budget;
                       15. ensurethe distributionof expendituresbetween the various levels of healthcare;
                       16. reorganizeand streamlinethe NationalAgricultureDepartment;
                       17. ensureroutine maintenanceof the road network.
                       SECONDCORETRANCHE            (REGULAR)
                       I. disburse GNF3.8 billionto education,GNF 2 billion each for health and road maintenance,GNF 635 millionfor rural developmentduring the January-June1998 period;
                       2. recruit 1600primaryschoolteachers for year 1998-99 incur expenseson didacticmaterials;
                                                                               and
                       3. submit thedraft comprehensiveauditof the implementation budgetsuntil the end of 1997
                                                                                      of
                       4. submit a restructuringplan for the Treasury,Ministry of Economyand Finance;
                       5. submit a report includinga descriptionof the revisedbudgetaryproceduresadopted in July 1997;
                       6. submit a report includinga descriptionof the new procurementproceduresenacted in November1997;
                       7. submit a reorganizationplan for MAEF;
                                                                                                                                                                                             Table 3 - Page 5 of 16


         Country                                                                                TRANCHE CONDITIONALITY

                      8. submitan action planfor an autonomousroad agencyto ensure timely availabilityof fundingrequired for road maintenance.
Kenya:                BOARDPRESENTATION           TRANCHE(REGULAR)
SACI                  1. reduce theovemllbudgetdeficit (on a commitmentbasis but before grants) to 1.9 percentof GDP in 1995/96;
                      2. reduce staff levels and their corresponding positionsby a further16,000a year;
                      3. issue telecommunications   sector policystatementand privatizationprogram;
                      4. liberalizetelecommunications    servicesbeginningwith pay phones and VSATterminalsfor privateoperators.
                      SECONDTRANCHE(REGULAR)
                      1.make satisfactory  progress in overall implementation the program,includingsatisfactorymacroeconomicframework;
                                                                               of
                                                                                                                                                  budget;
                      2. execute the 1996/97budget consistentwithagreed allocations and agree with IDA on budgetaryallocations for the 1997/98
                      3. execute agreedprivatizationprogramin 1996and agree with IDA on the privatizationprogram for 1997;
                      4. implementNCPBcommercialization        program;
                                                                                                                                                      contractsatisfactoryto IDA with KPA;
                      5. sign a contractwithoutside operator for the operationand managementof the containerterminal at KPA and sign a performance
                      6. sign contracts with private operatorsfor locomotivemaintenance(KR);
                      7. completesplit of KPTC into threeseparateentities;
                      8. sign performancecontractswith all powersector companies;
                      9. submitto ParliamentlegislationconvertNSSF into an autoniomous        pensionfund;
                      10. implementagreedcivil servicereductionprogramand agree with IDAon a program of staff reductionsafter July 1997;
                                                                                                                                              6 other ministries for rationalization.
                      11.rationalizeMOHI MOALDM,developrationalizationplans for MOF,MOLS,MOPWH,and MLRRWD, select
                                             and                                                                                     and
Madagascar:           CORETRANCHE        (REGULAR)
SAC I                 1. liberalizeentry, workpermit and residencerequirements investors,and visas for touristsand abolish exit visas;
                                                                                   for
                                                                                                                                          to foreigners;
                      2. grant (subjectonly to a validemploymentcontract)automatic work permitsand rightsof residencefor their families
                      3. allow  foreigninvestorsaccess to landtenure through99-year mortgageableleasesto be approvedwithin 2 months of application;
                                                                                                                                              code;
                      4. removetherequirementfor authorizationto invest and integratethe fiscal incentives of the investmentcode into the tax
                      5. abolishequity capitalcontributionsby foreign investors( above a thresholdof 20 percent of a company's authorizedcapital);
                      6. appoint experienced   negotiatorsto design and carry out the divestitureof the two state owned commercialbanks;
                      7. end the monopolyin telecomsand select companiesbased on an intemationalcompetitivebid for cellular operation;
                      8. cancelthe designationof air Madagascar the sole beneficiaryof Malagasyair trafficrights;
                                                                   as
                      9. open the petroleumsectorto competition;
                      10.adopt the legal frameworkfor the divestitureof the remainingpublicenterprises;
                      I1. reorientthe 1996budgetand the 1996-99PIP to strengthenthe contributionof Governmentexpenditureto poverty reduction;
                      12.completean independentaudit on the satisfactoryimplementation the social safety net;
                                                                                              of
                      13.submit a signed letter of Development    Policy.
Malawi:               BOARDPRESENTA        TION TRANCHE
FiscalRestructuring    1.appointPresidentialCommissionof inquiryon Land Policy and issue TOR;
& Deregul.Program
                      CIVILSERVICEREFORMTRANCHE             (FLOATING)
                      1. implementand deepen the overalladjustmentprogram;
                      2. continuemacroeconomic    policiesconduciveto adjustmentand in line with fiscal and monetarytargets agreed under the 6" PFP;
                      3. implementan ActionPlan for civil service reform,as presentedin the Letterof Development     Policy.
Mali:                 BOARDPRESENTATION          TRANCHE
         Credit
Econ.MGMT.             1.submita draft Letterof DevelopmentPolicy;
                      SECONDTRANCHE(REGULAR)
                      1. collect duringthe FY96, at least CFAF 184.5billion of domesticrevenues;
                      2. recruitat least 600teachersincluding 300vacataires for primary schools
                                                                                                                                                at the lower secondarylevel;CFAF 21,000 per student at the
                      3. incur expendituresfor didacticmaterialsat the rate of CFAF 2,500per studentat the primarylevel;CFAF 5,000per student
                      upper secondarylevel;CFAF35,000 per student at the technicallevel;and CFAF50,000at the higher education level;
                      4. recruitat least 150new medical and para-medicalstaff for health facilities locatedoutside Bamako;
                                                                                                                                            terms of referenceagreed with IDA.
                      5. presentto IDAa reviewof executionof the 1996budgetwith recommendations the 1998budget in conformitywith
                                                                                                         for
                       THIRDTRANCHE(REGULAR)
                      6. collect duringthe FY97, atleast CFAF200 billion of domesticrevenues;
                      7. recruitadditional600 primaryschoolteachers;                                                                           at the lower secondarylevel; CFAF21,000 per student at the
                      8. incur expendituresfor didacticmaterials at the rate of CFAF 2,500per studentat the primarylevel;CFAF 5,000per student
                      upper secondarylevel;CFAF 35,000per studentat the technicallevel;and CFAF50,000 at the higher educationlevel;
                      9. recruitat least 200 medicaland para-medicalstaff for health facilitieslocatedoutside Bamako;
                       10.presentto IDA a reviewof executionof the 1997budgetin conformitywith termsof referenceagreed with IDA..
                                                                                                                                                                                          Table 3 -Page60ofl6


         Cournir                                                                                  TRANCHE CONDI7ONALITY
                          FIRST TRANCIIE(FLOATING)
                          11.amend the relevantprovisionsof the Tax Codepertainingto the taxationof corporate,small businessand personalincome;
                          12.carry out a study of the currenttax exemptionsystem in the mining sector;
                          13.adopt a budgetpreparationmethodologyin accordancewith the Govemnment's    Letter of Policy;
                          14.restructurethe taxationand customsdepartmentsin the Ministry of Finance.
                      SECONDTRANC.HE         (FLOATING)
                       15.carry out a study to identifyany constraints which impedeor restrict access to creditfor women;
                       16.replenish theFund for Supportof Women's Activitieswith an amountof CFAF500 million;
                       17.carry out a media campaignaimed at sensitizingthe public on women in developmentand on women's rights.
Mauritania:           BOARDPRESENTATION           TRANCHE
Pub.Resource           I. submita draft Letterof DevelopmentPolicy;
Mgmt.Credit           2. providea progressreport on the functionaland organizationalauditsof the Ministriesof Planning (includingthe ONS),Finance, Fisheries,and Commerce,and a plan for strengtheningthe
                                 des
                      Dir-ection Etudesof the Central bank (BCM);
                      3. establisha PSIPmonitoringunit withinthe Ministry of Planning.
                      SECONDCORETRANCHE(REGULAR)
                       I. createa mastertax file with uniquetaxpayer identification numbers for each eligibletaxpayer;
                      2. preparefor 1997an indicativePEP (includinga rolling PSIP);
                      3. expand pre-shipmentinspectionto all imports;
                      4. meet key macro-economic    goals for 1996(inflation,current account,budgetarydeficit/surplusand social spending).
                       THIRDCORETRANCHE(REGULAR)
                      5. implementthe new budgetarynomenclature;
                      6. implementthe PEP for 1997(includingthe PSIP) and preparethe 1998PEP;
                      7. meet key macro-economic    targets for 1997(inflation,current account,budgetarydeficit/surplusand social spending);
                      8. providean action plan and timetablefor the corporateand personal incometax reforms.
                      FIRSTFLOATINGTRANCHE
                      9. implementthe restructuring   plans of the Ministriesof Planning (includingthe ONS), Fisheries,Finance,Commerceand Industry.
                      SECONDFLOATINGTRANCHE
                       10.amend the corporatetaxsystem as agreedwith the Bank;
                       I1. amend the personalincometax regulationsas agreed with the Bank.
Mozambique:           BOARDPRESENTA        TIONTRANCHE
ThirdEconomicRecovery 1.split commercialbank from centralbank;
credit                2. prepareBCM for sale (completedportfolioreview,contractedsales advisor;
                      3. conduct loan portfolioreviewof BCMand BPD;
                      4. conduct off-siteand on-site supervisionof all banks on a regular basis;
                      5. liberalizeand unifyexchangerate;
                      6. introducethree-yearrolling investmentprogram;
                      7. producebudgetfor passageby Parliament;
                      8. adopt Sector InvestmentProgramsin health,roads, agriculture,educationand water;
                      9. establishcustoms reformunit;
                       10.contractpre-shipmentinspectionservice;
                       I1. contractprivatefinmto manageand modemize customsadministrationfor threeyears;
                       12.eliminateadministered   retail and wholesaleprices;
                      13. eliminateminimumproducerprices;
                                                           and
                      14. privatizeover 700 commercial industrialfirms,including 32 large enterprises;
                      15. completeprivatizationof small and medium-scaleenterprises,including 30 large enterprises;
                      16. reducebudget subsidizationof publicenterprisesto less than one percentof GDP;
                      17. revise investmentcodeof 1993;
                      18. establishand revise mandateof Center for Promotionof Investment;
                      19. simplify proceduresto registerand operatebusinesses;
                      20. rationalizeand reduce importtariffs;
                      21. eliminatediscretionaryexemptions;
                      22. introduceVATsystem;
                      23. reviewduty regimefor exporters;
                      24. eliminatequantitative  restrictionson exportsof raw cashew;
                      25. reduceexport tax to 20 percent;
                      26. reduceexport tax to 14percent;
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Table 3 - Page 7 of 16


         Country                                                                                           TRANCHE CONDITIONALITY

                           27. phase out the exporttax;
                           28. analyzethe resultsof the cashewmonitoringsurvey;
                           29. establisha board for CFMand appointedmembers,
                           30. privateconcessionof sugar, coal,and citrusterminalsat MaputoPort;
                           31. adoptrestructuringplan for CFM;
                           32. issuebids for concessionof the portseries, remainingport terminals,and railwaylines at CFM-South.
                           SECONDTRANCHE(REGULAR)
                           I. suspendthe operationsof BPD as a state-owned     lending institution;
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  and debt
                           2. limit indirectsubsidiesto enterprises through non-paymentof counterpartfunds,credits at below marketrates, and on-lent funds etc., and estimatethe level of disbursement
                           service due of fundson lent-fromdonor sources to enterprises;
                           3. submitthe VAT law to Parliament;
                           4. establishand carry-outa systemfor complete reconciliation all import taxes due and paid and submit VAT law to Parliament;
                                                                                            of
                           S. evaluatebids for theconcessioningof the port services,remainingport terminals,and railwaylines at CFM-South.
Niger:                     FIRST CORETRANCHE(REGULAR)
Public Sect.Adj. CreditI   1. reduce 1996wagebill to CFAF42.1 bin. (cash basis);
                           2. increasebudgetaryrevenuein 1996to CFAF 79 bin.;
                           3. limit the 1996overall budgetdeficit(on a commitmentbasisand excluding grants)to 4.7% of GDP;
                           4. limit wagebill to CFAF44.1 b]n.;
                           5. increasehealth sectorallocationfor non-wagecurrent expendituresby 14percent;
                           6. increaseeducationsectorallocationfor non-wagecurrent expendituresby 14percent;
                           7. increaseallocationfor road maintenanceby 19 percent;
                           8. increasematerialand equipmentallocationsfor tax and customsservicesby 74 percent;
                                                                                                                                                                          structure; (applicationof a revisedgrid for the unified
                           9. introducea number of tax reformmeasuresincluding(i) streamliningof taxationon petroleumproducts througha change in the price                                 5 years, and a restriction in the
                           incometax on wages     and salaries(JUTS)and (iii) a reduction in the maximumlength of tax holidaysfor certain investmentsfrom the current 15years to
                           number of qualifyinginvestments    eligible for such treatment;
                           10. completionof inventoryof domesticarrears and adoptionof plan for their orderlysettlement;                                                                                                            -
                           11. initiationof civil servicecensus;
                           12. adoptionof revisedPE privatizationlaw;
                           13. adoptionof decreeto privatize12 key public enterprises;
                                                                                                                                                                   company (SONIDEP);
                           14. adoptionof privatizationstrategiesagreed with IDA for the public utilities (SNE,NIGELECand SONITEL)and the petroleum
                           15. Initiationof hiring processfor financialadvisorsto completeprivatizationtransactionsfor the 12targeted companies.
Senegal:                   BOARDPRESENTATION           TRANCHE
      Sect. Adj.Credit
Ener-gy                    I. maintaina macroeconomicpolicyframework,consistent withthe overallreformprogram;
                                                                                                                                                                   d'application;
                           2. approve,sign, and publish in the OfficialJoumalthe electricitylaw and correspondingr-egulations; and publish the decrets
                                                                                                                                    sign
                           3. transfer to SENELECthe legal ownershipof assets which are currentlyin the domain of the State and operatedby SENELEC;                              of petroleumproducts;
                           4. approve,sign and publish the new legal texts that wouldabolish all existinigmonopoliesfor importation,refining,transport and distribution
                           5. establishclear rules aimed at bringingabout competitionin the sector;
                           6. allow third-partyaccess to storageand transportfacilities for petroleumfuels;
                                                                                                                                                                           of SAR goods to SAR membersonly;
                           7. approveand publish legal texts to eliminatethe US $2.30surchargeon petroleumproducts sold by SAR and the limitationof the sale
                           8. establisha temporaryand decliningimport surtax on refined products;
                           9. establisha general importtariff on petroleumproductswhich will result in importduty differenitials;
                           10. sign and publish a decreeestablishingthe new petroleumproduct pricing policy;
                           11. publish in the OfficialJoumalthe new PetroleumCode;
                           12. publishin the OfficialJoumalthe new Forestry Code;
                           13. confirmto IDA thetimetablesfor the total eliminationof subsidies on LPG and on fuel forpower generation.
                           SECONDTRANCHE(REGULAR)
                           1. maintaina satisfactorymacroeconomic     policy framework;
                           2. bring at least 59% of SENELEC's    total sharecapital to the point of sale to a StrategicPartner,other entities in the private sector, or SENELEC'spersonnel;
                                                                                                                                                                         with the new Electricity Law;
                           3. establishan autonomousRegulatoryAuthority as providedfor in the Letterof EnergySector DevelopmentPolicy and in accordance
                                                                                                                                                                           agreedupon with the Association;
                           4. publish a legal or regulatoryinstrumentto complete the adjustmentof prices of petroleumproducts for 1999,accordingto the criteria
                           5. reduce the level of the subsidyon LPG,for 1999,and providefor total eliminationof subsidiesby January 1, 2002;
                                                                                                                                                                        1, 2001.
                           6. reduce therate of the subsidy on fuels for powergeneration,for 1999, and provide for the total eliminationof subsidiesby January
Tanzania:                  BOARDPRESENTATION           TRANCHE
SAC I                      I. achieve an overallfiscalbalance of 0.9 percent of GDP(after grants) for FY97 on an annualizedbasis.                                                               that the Govemnment   wishes TR
                           2. sign a Performance   contractwithTRC, which includescompensationpaymentsfor those unprofitablemarine services,passenger servicesand branchlines
                           to operate and an explicitagreementto allowTRC to close any or all other such unprofitableservices;
                           3. provide IDA with thepublishedversions of NBJC'sauditedFY96 and FY96             financialstatements.
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Table 3 - Page 8 of 16

           Country                                                                                    TRANCHE CONDITIONALITY

                     EFFECTIVENESS CONDITIONS
                     4. make the budgetary allocations for health, education, water, power, and transport Sectors, in the proposed budget for FY98;
                     5. make the budgetary allocations for recurrent expenditures for primary education;
                     6. prepare a telecommunications sector competition policy in accordance with the parastatal reform program;
                     7. award contracts to consultants to prepare proposals for concession arrangements, in connection with the concession of the container terminal at Dar es Salaam Port;
                     8. dissolve NBS and transfer NBS's assets and liabilities to the three new banks to be created out of NBC or to their holding company.
                     SOCIAL SECTOR TRANCHE (FLOA TING)
                      I. reduce the number of projects in the public sector development portfolio to 800 or less using guidelines and criteria of the LDP;
                     2. adopt an action plan ( with specific budgetary proposals), for the recruitment, training, upgrading, deployment and redeployment of primary school teachers;
                     3. issue a ministerial circular providing for District Education Officers and teachers to be recruited and hired (subject, in the case of District Education Officers, to approval by the ministry
                     responsible for education) by the District Counsels in at least 20 pilot districts;
                     4. issue a ministerial circular transferring all subsidies for primary education in such pilot districts to the District Councils as block grants to cover salaries and other expenses based on a
                     formula agreed upon between the Government and IDA;
                     5. prepare an action plan for transferring the management of primary schools to local school committees;
                     6. prepare an action plan for the reform of higher education and technical training;
                     7. implement a program to finance the full cost of pharmaceuticals delivered to hospitals within the framework of a hospital-based revolving fund, which involves cost sharing and subsidies,
                     with patients covering at least 50 percent of the costs;
                     8. issue a ministerial circular providing for District Medical Officers and district-level health staff to be recruited and hired (subject, in the case of District Medical Officers, to approval by th
                     Ministry of Health) by the District Councils in at least 20 districts;
                     9. issue a ministerial circular transferring the budget for health centers in such districts to the Districts Councils as grants to cover salaries and other expenses;
                      10. prepare an action plan to reduce the life years lost to malaria.
                     PARASTATAL SECTOR TRANCHE (FLOATING)
                      I1. bring to the point of sale: 7 public enterprises: Mbeya Cement; Sugar Development Corporation, Southem paper Mills, Morogoro Polyester, National Milling Corporation, Tanzania Tea
                     Authority (all commercial activities to be sold), and Tanzania Sisal Authority (all commercial activities to be sold);
                     12. take all steps within the Govemment's control to bring TTCL to the point of sale;
                     13. award the concession for the container terminal at Dar es Salaam Port;
                     14. abolish NASACO's monopoly for shipping agency services and permit free intemational competition under minimum standards agreed with IDA;
                      15. amend the relevant Acts so that neither TCFB nor any other agency will have t he exclusive authority to negotiate freight rates to allocate cargo across shipping lines;
                     16. complete a divestiture plan for TRC's Marine Services Division (including all maintenance and repail shops) and call for bids.
                     BANKING SECTOR TMNCHE (FLOATING)
                      17. distribute the Investment Memoranda for the 3 subsidiaries of the NBC holding company, issue a call for bids, and invite successful bidders for negotiations.
                     PETROLEUM SECTOR TRANCHE (FLOATING)
                      18. issue ministerial orders to permit the full liberalization ofpetrolcuns prices and product imports;
                      19. remove the tax differentials between various petroleum pToducts.
[Jganda:             BOARD PRESENTATION TRANCHE
SAC III               I. submit draft legislation to Parliament for the establishment of an independent tax appeals system;.
                     2. adopt riules for conditional grants, establish monitoring programs, and delink block grants from District personnel establishment positions
                     3. regulate borrowing by Districts;
                     4. prepare timetable for auditing of local govemments;
                     5. submit draft final report on Financial Flosvs Between Government anzdPublic Enterpr-ises and Arnongst Public Enterprises for 1994-95;
                     6. finalize and publish policy paper on1   future bank intervention agreed with BOU and acceptable to IDA.
                     SECOND TRANCHE (REGULAR)
                     1. submit draft legislation to clarify the role of URA Board and set appropriate safeguards;
                     2. reduce max. import duty to 20%, end differential use of other taxes/rates (imports and domestic goods), and abolish remaining NTBs (except tobacco);
                     3. implement integrated sector programming and budgeting exercise for three pilot sectors (Education, Health and Agriculture);
                     4. increase budgetary allocations for agriculture research and extension, primary health and primary education;
                     5. start implementation of action plan for improving financial accounting and auditing for central anid local govemments;
                     6. publish ois time the District Budgets and Local Govemment Public Committee Reports, and district account audits on completion;
                     7. reduce by 20 % subsidies to the SOE sector in 1996/97 compared with 1994-95 (excluding UCB and UDB, dealt with separately);
                     8. completely sell UCB, or implement back-up plan agreed with IDA;
                     9. implement policy regarding UDB to stop losses and minimize budgetary costs.
                     2 FLOATING TRANCHES
                     10. implement a low uniforn duty rate on all non-regional imports;
                     11. NPART to collect at least Ush 25 billion in non-performing assets.
                     CONDITIONALII'ES TO BE FULFILLED THROUGHOUT TIJE PROGRAM
                      12. stabilization program on track;
                                                                                                                                                                                           Table 3 - Page 9 of 16


         Country                                                                             TRANCHE CONDITIONALITY

                   13. limit supplementaries no more than 5 percent of Govemmentfunded expendituresin FY96/97 and no more than 3 percent thereafter,except for nationalemergencies
                                               to
Uganda:            BOARDPRESENTA         TION TRANCHE
Educ. Sect.Adj.    1. ESIP approvedby MOEfollowingconsultationwith donor community;
                   2. design UPEdisseminationstrategywith products aimed at district offices,headteachers,teacher,and parents, to be implementedfrom March 1998;
                   3. include in theeducationsector financialprojectionsa plan for the supportof UPE policyfor FY 97/98, FY 98/99, and FY 99/00;
                   4. clarify in writingthe role of parents' monetaryand in-kind contributionin supportof UPEas part of disseminationefforts;
                   5. completea draft of a policypaperon options for doubleshifting includingvoluntary participationand incentives;
                   6. adopt policyrecommendations provisionand utilization of textbooks and other materialsthat assureadequate choiceby schools;
                                                        on
                   7. develop and approvea planfor the expansionof in-serviceteachertrainingto coverall districts;
                   8. preparefinancingplanto clear teachers' arrears;
                   9. issueguidelinesto all districts and schoolsfor recruitment,deploymentand paymentof teachers in academicyear 1998;
                   10.finalizeaction plan to update teacherpayroll includingthe exclusion of ghosts
                   II. minimizethenumber of teachersaddedto the payroll that are untrained;
                   12.give priorityto experienced     teachers(pre-UPEfor inclusion in the payroll;
                   13. issueguidelinesto districtsand schools for accountabilityfor public fundsconsistentwith GovemmentAccountingManual and Regulationsand prepare procedures;
                   14.designtermsof referencefor educational      developmentplanning,exerciseto be completedby districts and develop trainingmanuals;
                   SECONDTRANCHE(REGULAR)
                   1. incur disseminationactivitiestargetedat each group underwaynationwide;
                   2. provide IDA with copiesof disseminationmaterials;
                   3. allocateto primaryeducationrecurrentbudgetat least 19.55of the total govemmentrecurrentbudgetin FY 98/99;
                   4. launchpubliccampaignto encourageparentparticipationas part of overalldisseminationeffort;
                   5. adopt doubleshifting policyand implementa disseminationcampaign for the 1999schoolyear;
                   6. complete policyon multigradeteachingwith an implementation       plan for demonstration sites in at least two districts;
                   7. complete a study on primaryteachersupplyand demandand approveand action plan;
                   8. decideon best constructionmodality and pilot and strengthenand consolidatethe policy on classroomconstruction;
                   9. allocateat least 2.8% of total primaryeducationrecurrent budgetin FY98/99 to instructionalmaterials;
                   10.commenceimplementation the expansionof phases IV and V of the TDMS;
                                                     of
                   I1. implementan actionplan for updatingthe payroll and pay all salary arrears;
                   12. implementa monitoringsystem for the accountabilityof public funds allocatedto districts and schools;
                   13.prove that the system is being implemented    based on random sample of a total of 350 schoolsselectedfrom at least 4 districts;
                   14.complete 12districts educationdevelopmentplans(includingschool maps);
                   15. fumish to IDA evaluationforms from district staff trained;
                   16.design EMISto includeessential inputsand outputs.
                   THIRDTRANCHE(REGULAR)
                   17.continue disseminationeffortand monitoringof results;
                   18.provide IDAwith copiesof disseminationmaterials;
                   19. allocateto primaryeducationrecurrentbudgetat least 17.5%of total govemmentrecurrentbudget in FY 99/00;
                   20. continuepublic campaignto encourageparentparticipationas part of overalldisseminationeffort;
                   21. implementpolicy for 19999academicyear and fumish IDA with a progressreport on schoolsparticipatingin double shifting;
                   22. implement   demonstrationsites for multi-gradeteachingin at least two schoolsin two districtsand promote voluntary participation;
                   23. implement action planto preventexcess supply of teachers;
                                   the
                   24. release progressreport on classroomconstruction;
                                                                                                                                                                                                       in
                   25. finishIDA evidencethat schoolshave receivedshipmentof instructionalmaterialsbased on a random sampleof a total of at least 350 schools selectedfotn at least four districts and
                   FY99/00allocateat least 2.8% of total primaryeducationrecurrentbudgetto instructionalmaterials;
                   26. provide evidenceto IDAthat all active teacher-s payroll are paidin a timely manner;
                                                                        on
                   27.implementa systemto monitorthe accountabilityof public funds allocatedto districts and schools;
                   28. fumish to IDAevidencethat the system is beingimplementedbased on random sampleof a total of at least 350 schoolsselected from at least four districts;
                   29. further20 districts completeeducationaldevelopmentplans (includingschoolmaps);
                   30. implementationof EMISin at least 20 districts;
                   31. fumishto IDA samplereports fromEMIS from each district.
Zambia:            BOARDPRESENTATION            TRANCHE
Economic&          1. meet revisedfiscal targetsestablishedin ESAFprogram;
SocialAdj.Credit   2. meet revisedmonetarytargets establishedin ESAF program.
                   SECONDTRANCHE(REGULAR)
                   1.begin implementingthe action planand satisfactorycompleteall actions plannedfor 1996;
                   2. make progresssatisfactoryto IDA in carrying out the action plan for the privatizationof ZCCM;
                   3. maintain its policy of limitingnew customsduty exemptionsto cases of nationalemergencyas agrees with IDA, and to be announced in a StatutoryInstrument;
                                                                                                                                                                                           Table 3 - Page 1Oof 16


         Country                                                                                 TRANCIIE CONDITIONALITY
                        4. implementthe 1995Land Act, includingthe first meetingof the Land Tribunal;
                        5. increaseefficiencyof the leaseapplicationprocess;
                        6. take all necessaryactionswithin its power to regularizeinformalurban settlements;
                                                                                                                                            bargaining;
                        7. submit to the CabinetLegislationCommitteeamendmentto the Industrialand LaborRelationsAct to allow enterprise-level
                        8. release fundsto the social sectors in accordancewith the LDP;
                        9. adopt National Drug Policy whichaddressesthe issuesreferredto in the LDP;
                        10. adopt a policy regarding role and functioningof the National Food and NutritionCommission;
                                                     the
                        11. adopt a policy on improvingcollaboTation NGOs, based on a processof consultationwith NGOs.
                                                                       with
B. IDA COUNTRIES
Albania:                BOARD PRESENTATION TRANCHE
             Credit
Rehabilitation           1. appointextemal administrators the four pyramid schemeswhich have not been declaredbankrupt;
                                                            for
                                                                            for
                        2. appointqualified Albanianadministrators/CEOs theNCB and RCB based on termsof referenceagreed with World Bank;
                        3. approve termsof reference                                                              who
                                                      agreed with World Bankfor extemal administrators/CEOs will assume full control of NCB and RCB;
                        4. put in place zeroincremental  credit ceilingfor NCB;
                        5. maintain restrictionof no lendingfor RCB;
                        6. imposecredit ceilingof Leks 200 m. for SB for the last quarter of 1997;
                        7. approve termsof referencefor auditsof NCB and SB by accountingfirmsof intemationalrepute;
                        8. seek agreementfrom foreigndonorsto cease intermediating     their commercial  credit lines through the RCB,NCB and SB;
                        9. accept no new foreigndonor commercialcreditlines for theRCB, NCB and SB;
                        10. pay full budgetedamountof social assistancebenefitsto local authoritiesthroughthe block grant in Novemberand December,1997;
                        11. include an increaseof 10percent in social assistancebenefit paymerts, consistentwith the IMF Post-ConflictEmergencyAssistanceprogram,starting January 1, 1998,in the draft 1998
                        budget;
                        12. include in the draft 1998budgetthe provisionto releasethe 1998capital budget for social welfareinstitutions for the elderly and orphans by April, 1998;
                         13.introduce proposalsfor adjustmentsto social insurancelegislationto tightenthe link between contributionsand benefits for unemploymentinsurance for IDA review;
                         14.present agreementon thetransfer of responsibilityfor paymentof unemploymentbenefitsfrom the LaborOfficesto the SI;
                         15.present proposal on theaccountingproceduresbetweenthe SIIand the Treasuryfor the unemploymentinsuranceprogram for IDA review;                                                     L
                                                       for
                        16. present termsof reference the NationalCommitteeon Public/Community            Works, satisfactoryto IDA;
                         17.appoint a NationalCommitteeon Public/Community        Works includingrepresentativesfrom Ministry of Finance,Ministry of Labor, Ministry of Public Worksto definecriteria and
                        proceduresfor operatingcommunityworks programs.
Bolivia:                BOARD PRESENTATION TRANCHE
CapitalizationProgram    I. maintain a sound macroeconomic    fmmeworkconsistentwith objectivesof program;
AdjustmentCredit        2. comply with policy objectivesand programsdescribedin the Letterof DevelopmentPolicy;
                        3. pass CapitalizationLaw;
                        4. establish a structureto coordinateand directthe capitalizationprocess;
                        5. agree on a strategyto transferpartial ownershipof key puLblic enterprisesto the Bolivianpeople;
                        6. pass regulatoryframework   Law (SIRESE);
                        7. pass an amendmentto Tax Law 843 to establisha new corporatetax regime;
                        8. oresent to Congressa new Telecommunications      Law;
                        9. agree on planto recapitalizelocal service and capitalize ENTEL;
                        10. pass ElectricityLaw;
                        I1. hire financialadvisors/investment   bankersto prepareENDE for capitalization;
                        12. agree on strategyto capitalize ENDE;
                                                         to
                        13. agree on a draft amendment the Mining Lawto increasethe attractivenessof the sector to long-terminvestors;
                        14. agree on a strategyto capitalize EMVand other mining assets;
                        15. hire financial advisors/investment  bankersto prepareEMVand other mining assets for capitalization;
                        16. agree on drafthydrocarbonsLaw;
                        17. amend Tax Law 843 to establisha new tax regime for liquid fuels to restoreprice transparencyand stimulatecompetitionin downstreamoperations;
                        18. agree on principles for thecapitalizationof YPFB;
                        19. agree on basic principlesof a revisedpensionssystem.
                        GENERALCAPITALIZA         TIONTRANCHE(FLOATING)
                        I. maintaina soundmacroeconomic       framework  consistentwith objectives of program;
                        2. comply withpolicy objectivesand programsd-scribedin the Letter of DevelopmentPolicy;
                        3. issue regulations for competitive  bidding for companiesto be capitalized underthe CapitalizationLaw;
                        4. implementSIRSELaw and appointSuperintendent        General;
                        S.implementthe new corporatetaxationsystem estab'ishedin the amendmentto Tax Law 843;
                        6. pass new Telecommunications     Law;
                        7. govemmentto invite bids for the capitalizationof ENTEL;
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Table 3 - Page 11 of 16


        Country                                                                                    TRANCHE CONDITIONALITY

                       8. establishand staff the Superintendency Telecommunications
                                                                   of                      within SIRSEto award and superviseconcessionsand monitor compliancewith regulations;
                       9. implementthe Electricity  Law;
                                                                                                                                                           with regulations;
                       10. establishand staffthe Superintendency Electricitywith SIRSEto awardand superviseconcessionsand monitor compliance
                                                                    of
                       11.amend theMining Law;
                       HYDROCARBONS        SECTORTRANCHE          (FLOATING)
                       12.maintaina sound macroeconomic        frameworkconsistentwith objectivesof program;
                       13.complywith policy objectivesand programsdescribed in the Letterof Development         Policy;
                       14. passnew HydrocarbonsLaw;
                       15. implement new excisetaxes on petroleumproductsestablished in the amendmentto Tax Law 843;
                                       the
                       16.establishand staff regulatoryand other agenciesto award and superviseconcessionsand monitor compliancewith regulations;
                       17. agreeon a strategyto capitalize YPFB;
                       18. issuetenderdocuments for capitalization at least 30% of YPFB(excludingthose parts of YPFBto be privatized).
                                                                      of
                       FINANCIALSECTORTRANCHE(FLOATING)
                       19.maintaina sound macroeconomic        framework  consistentwith objectives of program;
                       20. comply withpolicy objectivesand programsdescribed in the Letter of DevelopmentPolicy;
                       21. pass and implementSecuritiesLaw;
                       22. strengthenthe Superintendency Securitiesto supervise compliancewith the SecuritiesLaw and regulations;
                                                             of
                                                                                                                                                                   of non-contributoryaccounts for share distribution
                       23. pass Pension Lawprovidingfor (a)reformof existing and establishmentof new contributoryretirementfunds; and (b) establishment
                       from capitalization;
                       24. establishand staffa regulatoryauthorityto supervisecompliancewith the Pensions Lawand regulations;
                       25. passand implementInsuranceLaw;
                       26. strengthenSuperintendency Insuranceto supervisecompliancewith the InsuranceLaw and regulations.
                                                         of
Honduras:              BOARD PRESENTATION TRANCHE
Public Sector          1. have in place a short- and mediumterm macroeconomic      program;
Modernization Credit   2. approvalby Congressof the FrameworkLawfor the Telecommunications           Sector includingamendmentsto the HondutelOrganicLaw;
                       3. present to Congressthe AviationLaw and the Law for the HonduranEnterpriseof Airports and Air Navigation Services;
                       4. define a new electricitytariff structureand makea publiccommitmentto implementthe new structureon a permanentbasis;
                       5. presentto Congressthe new GeneralLaw of Public Administration;
                                                                                                                                                                priorityentities
                       6. emanatePresidentialDecreeto establishthe legal basis for the reform includingthe approvalof institutionalrestructuringplans for
                                                                                                                                                          the Central Govemmentand the DecentralizedInstitutions
                       7. rationalizepublic employmentand salarystructuresin accordancewith Reformof Employmentin the Civil ServiceRegimeof
                       plan;
                       8. agree and implementplan for developmentof a comprehensivePublic Sector Human ResourceManagement EffectiveControl Mechanisms;
                                                                                                                                       and
                                                                                                                                                         of financialmanagementand investment programming-
                       9. agree on action plan for Modernization FinancialManagementand InvestmentProgrammingand design integratedsystems
                                                                   of
                       SECOND TRANCHE         (REGULAR)
                        1.policy performancesatisfactoryto IDA!IDB,      measuredagainst LDP targets;
                       2. issueand put into effectthe regulationsof theFrameworkLaw for the Telecommunications          Sector;
                       3. assign a budgetand establishoperationsof the regulatoryagency (Conatel).
                                                                                                                                                                     basic telephone serviceswith coverage
                       4. issuefinal bidding documents solicit bids for investmentin the enterprise(s)Hondutelestablished accordingto the Law to operation
                                                          to
                       of the South-Center North-West
                                            and               regions;
                                                                                                                                                          traffic;or at least one concessioncontractto
                       5. enter into a concessioncontractin place for managementand operation of at least one of the airports with regular intemational
                       operatesome of the Airport Servicesin at least two of the airports with regular internationaltraffic;
                                                                                                                                                                  territoryto facilitateprivate sector participation;
                       6. approvestrategy,satisfactoryto IDA,to determinethe geographicalregionalizationof electricpower distributionacrossthe national
                       7. implementinstitutionalrestructuringactionplans;
                                                                                                                                                                 in the Civil ServiceRegimeof the Central Government
                       8. comply withmeasuresfor rationalizationof publicemploymentand salary structurein accordancewith the Reform of Employment
                       and DecentralizedInstitutionsplan;
                       9. implementaction plan for Human Resources       ManagementControl;
                        10.implementModernization FinancialManagementand InvestmentProgrammingplan.
                                                       of
                       TIIIRD TRANCHE(REGULAR)
                        11.policyperformancesatisfactoryto IDA/IDB,measured against LDPtargets;
                                                                                                                                                                controlledby investors(other than
                        12.establishenterprise (s) by Hondutelto operatebasic telephoneservicesin South-Center North-Westregions aremanaged and
                                                                                                                     and
                       government)and are substantiallyownedby these investors;
                                                                                                                                                            traffic;or at least one concessioncontractto operate some
                       13. enter into a concessioncontractin place for managementand operationof at least one of the airports with regular international
                                                                                                                                                                       for the second tranche;
                       of the Airport Servicesin at least two of the airportswith regular intemationaltraffic. This is in additionto what was already accomplished least 35% of consumersin nationalterritory)
                                                                                                                                                                     at
                        14.award at least one contractfor private sectorparticipationin the distributionof electricpower in accordancewith the study (including
                       carried otitby second tranche;
                        15.continue implementation institutionalrestructuringaction plan;
                                                     of
                                                                                                                                                              in the Civil ServiceRegimeof the CentralGovenment an
                        16.complywith measuresfor rationalizationof publicemploymentand salary structurein accordancewith Reformof Fmployment
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Table 3 - Page 12 of 16


        Country                                                                                        TRANC'HECONDITIONALITY
                          DecentralizedInstitutionsplan;
                           17. continue implementation HumanResourcesManagement
                                                           of                                  Control plan;
                                                           of
                           18.continue implementation Modemizationof FinancialManagementand InvestmentProgrammingplan.
Lao People's Democratic   BOARDPRESENTAITON             TRANCHE
Republic:                  1. submita time-bounddivestitureplanto IDA, listingall remaining state-ownedenterprisestargetedfor privatizationor liquidation,;
ThirdStructural           2. adoptthe Decree on PublicProcurement;
AdjustmentCredit          3. adoptand implementkey prudential regulations,addressingloanconcentration,asset classificationand provisioning,capital adequacy,etc.
                          4. adopta new chartof accountsfor commercialbanks;
                          5. adopta new nomenclaturefor the NationalBudget,as an implementationof the State BudgetLaw.
                          SECONDTRANCHE(REGULAR)
                           1.achieve progress,satisfactoryto IDA,toward the privatizationof remainingstatc-ownied      enterprises
                                              at
                          2. commercialize least 5 SOEs,of which 3 should be utilities;
                          3. adopt5 regulationspertainingto theBusiness Law, ForeignInvestmentLaw, Decreeon Arbitration,EnterpriseAccountingLaw, and the BudgetLaw;
                          4 adopt a medium-termnationallegal frameworkdevelopmentplans,satisfactoryto IDA;
                          5. prove that theBank of Lao PDR has requiredcommercialbanks to adoptadequate pre-tax loanloss provisions;
                          6. publish and disseminatethe FY96-97nationalbudget,based on a nomenclaturesatisfactoryto IDA;
                                                                                                                                               and
                          7. presentto the NationalAssemblya budgetfor FY96/97,which would provide for adequate fundingfor recurTent capital expenditur-es prior-ity    in              and
                                                                                                                                                                                sectol-s financingfor investment
                          projects which areeconomicallyand sociallyjustified;
                          8. establish a monitoringsystemfor reporting,on a quarterlybasis,the actual disbursementof funds.
Nicaragua:                BOARDPRESENTATION             TRANCHE
FinancialSector            1.maintain supportivemacroeconomic         framework;
AdjustmentCredit          2. close or auction to privatebanks all BANADES         branchesand BANADESceasedto operateas a financialinter-mediary;
                          3. BANICBoard approvalof draftaudit of BANIC 1997financialstatements;
                          4. submit draft legislation,acceptableto IDA, to theNational Assemblytransferringclaimson BANICto the governmentand authorizingsale of sharessufficient to transfer majority control
                          to privateconcerns;
                          5. inform the commercial     banks of their loan loss provisioningobligationseffectiveimmediatelyin respect of loansto customers whichare also State Debtors;
                          6. Banco Popularrefrain from increasingsize of its portfolioto an amounthigher than US$19mln. equivalentand Borrowershall have refrainedfrom providing any cash transfersor
                                                         of
                          bonds for the capitalization Banco Popular;
                          7. SBIF Counciladopts theBank Super-vision        ActionPlan to strengthensupervisionof banks;
                          8. SBIF establishesa FinancialAnalysisunit to assess situationsof bank solvency,propose supervisionand adjustmcntprograms,and in general, st-engthentechnicalaspectsof SBIFpolicie ,
                          regulationsand operations.
                          BANADESTRANCHE(REGULAR)
                           1.maintain supportivemacroeconomic         framework;
                          2. revoke BANADES'licenseto operate as a financialinstitution;
                          3. verify complianceby the commercialbanks of their loan loss provisioning obligationsin respect of loansto cLustomers     which are also State BankDebtors and shall in the event of any non-
                          complianceapply the corresponding        fines thereto;
                          4. Banco Popularrefrains from increasing      size of its portfolioto an amounthigher than US$ 19mln.equivalentand the Borrowerrefrains from providingany cash transfers or bonds for
                          the capitalizationof BancoPopular;
                                                                                      of
                          5. progress,satisfactoryto IDA,in the implementation the BankStupervision          ActionPlan including,in particular;
                                                                                                                                                 had
                          6. finalize diagnosticof the solvencysituation of the threecommercialbanks which duringthe period 1/1/97-1/31/98 the largestincrease in the number of operatingbranches;
                          7. instruct any of the banks which do not meet SBIFsolvencyregulations to take necessarymeasuresto restorecompliancewith such regulation;
                                                              to
                          8. adopt regulations,satisfactory IDA, for capital adequacyand relatedparty lending,and revise existing risk concentrationprudential regulationsto set forth the required provisioning;
                          9. adoptthe InspectionStrengthening                the
                                                                    Plan foT following 12 months,acceptableto IDA, to strengthenon-site inspectionsof commercialbanks.
                          BANIC TRANCHE (REGULAR)
                          10. maintain supportive macroeconomic framework;
                          I 1. bring to point of sale to the private sectora majority of BANICshares (withmanagementcontrol);
                          12. verifycomplianceby thecommercialbanks of their loan loss provisioningobligations in respect of loansto customerswhich arealso StateBank Debtorsand shall in the event of any non
                          complianceapplythe corresponding        fines thereto;
                          13. BancoPopularrefrains from increasingsize of its portfolioto an amounthigher than US$ 19mln.equivalentand the Borrowerrefrains froni providingany cash transfers or bonds for the
                          capitalizationof Banco Popular
                                                                                        of
                          14. progress,satisfactoryto IDA, in the implementation the Bank SupervisionActionPlan, including,in particular;
                          15. finalizediagnosticof the solvency situationof all commercial       banks;
                          16. instructbanks (basedon diagnostic), which do not meet SBIFssolvency regulationsto take necessarymeasuresto comply with regulations;
                                                                to
                          17.adopt a regulation,satisfactory IDA,for evaluationand classificationof assets, includingprovisioningrequirements;
                                                                                      for
                          18. completea study of options and recommendations bank exit,crisis resolution,structureof resolutionagencies, and deposit insurance,and approvean action plan to strengthen the
                          bankingsafety network.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Table 3 - Page 13 of 16


                                                                                                             TRANCIHE CONDITIONALITY
         Country

Tajikistan:                 BOARD PRESENTATION TRANCHE
                                                                                                                        grain, silk and cotton;
Agricultural Recovery and   I eliminate price controls on all agricultural commodities, including bread, flour,
                                                                                                                      harvest season;
Social Protection Credit    2. increase producer price for raw cotton procured through Glavchlopkoprom in 1995
                                                                                                                             scheme for irrigation for achieving full cost recovery;
                            3. design, in agreement with IDA, and begin the phased implementation of a water pricing
                            4. eliminate the state order   system for all agricultural commodities, except cotton.
                                                                                                                                   without a license;
                            5. allow individuals and firms to import agricultural inputs and export agricultural commodities
                                                                                                                                       accounts;
                            6. allow exporters of cotton to retain at least 70 percent of their export eaming in foreign exchange
                                                                                                                                  Govemment will reduce the export tax fiom its existing level of50 percent to 10-15 percent
                            7. eliminate export taxes and duties on all agricultural commodities, except cotton. For cotton,
                             on all cotton exports;
                                                                                                                              plan (to be carried out under the World Bank IBTA project) for privatization of Glavchlopkoprom;
                            8. prepare terms of reference, acceptable to IDA, for the elaboration of a time-bound action
                                                                                                                        currently under the control of Glavehlopkoprom or the Ministry of Agriculture;
                            9. prepare a timetable, in agreement with IDA, for the privatization of cotton ginneries                                                                                                       rights,
                                                                                                                            plans for selecting farmers to receive land, mechanisms for allowing transfer of land access
                             10. prepare guidelines for a farm restructuring program, satisfactory to IDA, that includes
                            and  arrangements for increasing the number of leasehold farmers;
                                                                                                                                               in use by either state or collective farms;
                             11. increase the number of leasehold farmers by a minimum of 5,000 by allocating irrigated land currently alia, select enterprises to be privatized and introduce broad public participation
                             12. adopt a new law,   satisfactory to IDA, on privatization that empowers State Property committee to, inter
                             in the privatization process;                                                                                                                                                        paying pensions
                                                                                                                         pension rate (with the exception of pensioners with special privileges) and (b) cease
                             13. amend currenit pension legislation to (a) start paying all pensioners at the minimum
                             to working pensioners;                                                                                                                                                                          worker
                                                                                                                                 targeted to children under 16 years old, non-working pensioners, registered unemployed
                             14. combine bread compensation and child allowances into one single social welfare payment
                             and the disabled;
                             15. reduce maximum sick leave entitlement to one month per year;                                                                                                                                  budg( t
                                                                                                                               jobs in financially distressed enterprises and allocate at least TR 150 million front the 1996
                             16. discontinue use of Employment Fund for financing wage subsidies paid for maintaining
                             for payment of public works programs managed by the Employment Fund;
                                                                                                                                     education sector;
                             17. allocate at least 6 percent of the 1996 budget to the health sector and at least 14 percent to the
                                                                                                                          (b) undertake a study to assess options for pilot programs for job creation, including food-for-work,
                             18. prepare terms of reference, satisfactory to IDA, to (a) carry out a poverty survey and                                                                                                                    J
                             public works and credit schemes;
                                                                                                                               taxes under the responsibility of a single agency and (b) centralizing the collection and allocation
                             19. improve administration of social insurance by (a) consolidating collection of all payroll
                             of Pension Fund revenues to mitigate     regional disparities.
Yemen:                       BOARD PRESENTATION TRANC-E
                                                                                                                         accompanying macroeconomic framework;
Economic Recovery            I. satisfactory implementation of stabilization program agreed to under Fund SBA and                                                                                                              agreeI
                                                                                                                               and goods banned for national security and religious reasons) and replace with tariffs within
Credit                       2. eliminate import bans (except for coffee and fiesh fruits and vegetables produced locally
                            four bands;
                                                                                                                                 exports, except for national security or cultural r easons;
                            3. eliminate govemment discretion to impose bans on individual exports and license or regulate                                                                                        ds adopted by
                                                                                                                        security, public health, religion or environmental protection, in accordance with standar
                            4. eliminate product specific import licensing requirement except for reasons of national
                            Yemeni authorities;
                                                                                                                              rate of 70% will apply only to cigarettes and tobacco imports;
                            5. implement anew tariffstructure with four bands (30, 15,10 and 5 percent). An exceptional                                intemational agreements and those for wheat, wheat flour and crude oil
                            6. abolish duty exemptions    for imports by public enterprises excluding exemptions granted under existing contracts,
                            destined for re-export;
                            7. abolish all remaining fees and surcharges;
                            8. harmonize excise tax rates for similar imported and domestic products;
                            9. approve regulations, guidelines and procedures for privatization;
                            10. establish and define the role and scope of work of a TPO to support the Privatization Committees;
                            I1. confirm the 1995-97 PE privatization program targets;
                            12. offer six PEs for sale;
                                                                                                                                     and Institutional Reform";
                             13. agree on schedule and terms of reference for the study "Public Utilities: Regulatory Framework
                            14. consolidate   financial monitoring of the PE sector into MOF;
                                                                                                                                  directly related to security, health, religion and environmental protection;
                            15. abolish product-based 'negative" list and replace with a new, short list of restricted activities                               incentives and the restructuring of GIA;
                            16. agree (IDA and GIA) on terms     of reference and schedule for a study to review the multiple licensing system, investment
                             17. confirm protection of 1996 budgetary expenditures     for health and education.
                            SECOND TRANCHE (REGULAR)
                             I. continued maintenance of a satisfactory macroeconomic framework;
                            2. formulate a plan, acceptab;e to IDA, for improving customs procedures;
                                                                                                                                batch of six PEs;
                            3. place on a liquidation schedule, agreed with IDA, any PEs that remain unsold out of the first
                            4. offer at least ten additional PEs for sale
                            5. develop a plais, acceptable to IDA, for phasing out transfers to PEs and settling their arrears;
                                                                                                                                       and begin implementation of agreed, with IDA, recommendations;
                            6. complete the review of the multiple licensing system, investment incentives and GIA restructuring
                            7. agree, with IDA, on a medium-term framework       and expenditure plans for 1997.
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Table 3 - Page 14 of 16


         Country                                                                                        TRANCHE CONEDITJONALII'Y

Yemen:                    BOARD PRESEN7ATION TRANCHE
Financial Sector Credit   I. amend Banking Law to specify criteria for bank licensing, introduce accountability of individual directors anid set penalties for non performance and specify a framework for penalties
                          applicable to all financial institutions for infractions of the Banking Law and CBY;
                          2. amend Banking Law to permit all banks to engage in financial leasing;
                          3. amend tax law to eliminate all stamp taxes on financial transactions;
                          4. amend Income Tax Law to permit tax deductibility of specific provisions taken in accordance with the CBY regulation. To prevent abuse, provisions against insider loans will not qualify
                          for tax deduction;
                          5. amcid capital adequacy regulations and regulation issued on (i) intemal controls and (ii) licensing requirements;
                          6. issue credit risk management regulation;
                          7. issue regulation on external auditing, including terms of reference, for audit of commercial and specialized banks in accordance with international standards;
                          8. adopt a phased plan (1997-2000) for salary restructuring for CBY staff as part of the medium-term development progrant
                          9. announce new staff openings for the Supervision Department and invite applications from qualified candidates;
                          10. adopt Supervision Department medium-term development program;
                          I1. complete classification, by CBY, of loan portfolios of all banks and calculated shortfalls in provisions and the risk-weighted capital r-atios of the banks in accordance with the amended
                          regulation;
                          12. improve CBY database on private commercial banks' NPLs;
                          13. permit banks to lend in foreign exchange and deregulate banking fees and charges;
                          14. reduce reserve requirement from 25 percent to 15 percent;
                          15. remunerate rial reserves at 5 percent, and hard currency reserves at LIBOR-less-50 basis points;
                          16. limit PEs access to credit
                          17. agreement between Govemment and public commercial banks on financial arrangements to relieve banks of PEs NPLs;
                          18. NBY sign contract with independent auditor (one of big six intemnational accounting firms) to perform diagnostic review of NBY for purpose of privatization;
                          19. Govemment invite bids for a financial advisor for the sale of at least 51 percent of the government shareholding, and transfer of management, to a strategic investor;
                          20. implement NBY action plan based on the recommendations of IDA;
                          21. YBRD re-invite bids, under revised terms of reference, for a diagnostic review of the bank;
                          22. implementing YBRD action plan based on the recommendations of IDA;                                                                                                                            L
                          23. Ministry of Finance made parent ministry of YBRD;                                                                                                                                             00
                          24. contracts entered between specialized banks (IBY,CACB,HB) and independent auditors, associated with intemational accounting firms, to prepare special audits of their 1996 accounts.
                          SECOND TRANCHE (REGULAR)
                          I. adopt an action plan, in consultation with IFC/IDA, for the development of the legal framework for financial leasing;
                          2. amend loan classification and provisioning regulations;
                          3. amend foreign exchange exposure regulations;
                          4. issue a regulation on credit risk concentration and insider lending upon enactment of the amended Banking Law;
                          5. assess the accounting standard used by banks and recommend new bank accounting standards (with assistance of an intemational expert;
                          6. issue a regulation to implement the new accounting standards;
                          7. make satisfactory progress in implementing the development program for supervision;
                          8. private commercial banks agree with CBY on time-bound (2-3 year) action plans for constituting provisions and meeting the 8 percent capital ratio, based on 1996 audits, and for complyin
                          with limits on insider lending and credit concentration in the existing law;
                          9. Government clean up PEs NPLs held by NBY as a first priority to expedite its privatization;
                          10. offer for sale through public announcement at least 51 percent of Government's shareholding in NBY to a strategic investor (a reputable international financial institution);
                          11. prepare and adopt a plan, acceptable to IDA, for YBRD institutional and financial restructuring, privatization, merger, or liquidation, as appropriate;
                          12. on-site and off-site inspection of specialized banks by CBY;
                          13. prepare and start implementing a plan, acceptable to IDA, for specialized banks institutional and financial restructuring, privatization, merger or liquidation, as appropriate;
                          14. establish an Accounting Standards Board to set and enforce standard for the non-bank corporate sector in Yemen.
                                                                                                          Table3 -Page 15of 16

ABBREVIATIONS(Table 3)

AFF-AbattoiresFrigorifiques de Farcha (Slaughterhouse)
BANADES-NicaraguaNational DevelopmentBank
BANIC-NicaraguanBank for Industry and Trade, Inc.
BCM-BancoCommercial de Mo;ambique
BDT-Banquede Developpment du Tchad (Development Bank of Chad)
BICEC-BanqueIntemationale du Cameroon pour l'Epagne et le Commerce
BPD-Banco Popular de Desenvolvimento
BTCD-BanqueTchadienne de Credit et des D6pots (Commercial Bank of Chad)
CAMSUCO-CameroonSugar Company
CBY-CentralBank of Yemen
CDC-CameroonDevelopment Corporation
CFM-Caminhosde Ferro de Mogambique(Natienal Railways)
CNPS-CaisseNationale du Tchad (Cotton Processing and Marketing Company)
CNR-CoinpagnieNationale de Reassurance (National Insurance Company)
CNRT-CaisseNationale de Retraite du Tchad (Retirement/Pension Fund)
COTONCHAD-SocieteCotonniere du Tchad (Cotton Processing and Marketing company)
DRV-Directions des Routes et Voiries (Directorate of Highways and Urban Roads)
EMV-Empresa Metalurgica Vinto (Bolivia smelter public enterprise)
                                                                                                                           w
ENDE-Empresa Nacional de Electricidad (Bolivia electricity public enterprise)
ENTEL-EmpresaNacional de Telecomunicaciones(Bolivia telecommunicationpublic enterprise)
ESPL-Energy Sector Policy Letter
KPA-KenyaPorts Authority
KPTC-KenyaPosts and TelecommunicationsCorporation
KR-Kenya Railways
LDP-Letter of Private Sector Development Policy
LPG-Liquefied Petroleum Gas
MAEF- Ministere de l'Agriculture, des Eaux et Forets (Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Forestry)
MARA-Mongolia Asset realization Agency
MINEF-Ministerede l'Environement et des Forets (Ministry of Environment and Forests)
MLRRWD-Ministryof Land Reclamation,Regional and Water Development
MOALDM-Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock Development and Marketing
MOF-Ministry of Finance
MOH-Ministry of Health
MOLS-Ministry of Land and Settlements
MOPH-Ministiy of Public Works and Housing
NBY-NationalBank of Yemen
NCB-Albania Naticnal Commercial Bank
NCPB-National Cereals and Produce Board
NGO-Non-GovernmentalOrganization
NSSF-National Security Fund
ONADEF-Office National du Developpment des Forets
ONHPV-Office National de l'Hydralique Pastorale et Villageouse (Rural Water Supply Agency)
                                                                                            Table 3 - Page 16 of 16
Abbreviations (Table 3) (cont.)

ONS-OfficeNationale Statistique
OSER-Office de Securite Routiere (Road Safety Office)
OPIT-Officede Promotion Industrielle du Tchad (Industrial Promotion Agency)
PAA-Port Autonome d'Abidjan (Abidjan Autonomous Port)
PFP-Policy Framework Paper
PIP-Public Investment Program
PSI-Pre-ShipmentInspection
PSIP-PublicSector Investment Program
QR-QuantitativeImport Restriction
RCB-AlbaniaRural Commercial Bank
SAR-SocieteAfricaine de Raffinage (AfricanRefining Company)
SB-AlbaniaSavings Bank
SBIF-NicaraguaSuperintendency of banks and Other Financial Institutions
SENELEC-SocieteNationale d'Electricite du S6negal(Senegal Electric Company)
SIRSE- Sistema de Regulaci6n Sectorial (Bolivia cross-sectoralregulatory agency)
SNEC Societe Nationale des Eaux du Cameroun (Cameroon Water Supply Company)
SNER-SocieteNationale de l'Entretien Routier (Road Maintenance Company)
SNH-NationalOil Company
SOCAPALM-Societe Camerounaise de Palmeraies(Cameroon Palm oil Company)
SOCAR-SocieteCamerounaise d'Assurance et de Reassurance (Insurance Company)
                                                                                                               o
SONASUT-Soci6teNationale Sucriere du Tchad (Chad Sugar Company)
SONARA-NationalPetroleum Refinery
SONEL-SocieteNationale d'Electricite (NationalElectricity Company)
SRC-Societede Developpment Cotonniere (Cotton Development Company)
STEE-Societ6Tchadienne d'Eau et d'Electricite (Chad Water and Electricity Company)
TCFB-Tanzania Central Freight Bureau
TDMS-Teacher Development and Management System
THA -Tanzania Harbors Authority
TIT-TelecommunicationsInternationals du Tchad (International TelecommunicationsCompany)
TOR-Terms of Reference
UCB-UgandaCommercial Bank
UPE-Universal Primnary Education
URA-Uganda Revenue Authority
YBFB-YacimientosPetroliferos Fiscales Bolivianos (Bolivia hydrocarbons public enterprise)
YBRD-YemenBank for Reconstruction and Development
ZCCM-Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines
                                                           41



Quality of Conditionality


2.2.9. Given better informnation FY96 and FY97 HIAL operations, we attempted to construct
                                   on
an index for the quality of conditionality for this group which will be used later to look for a
relation between conditionality and outcomes.

2.2.10. The proposed quality of conditionality index (QCI) is composed of eight binary variables,
where a value of one of each variable stands for a perceived positive influence on the quality of
conditionality. These eight variables attempt to capture the discussion in HIAL what would
constitute good conditionality:

    i.   Number of conditions per tranche post effectiveness (five or less);
   ii.   Percentage of total conditions up-front (board and effectiveness/total)at least 40 percent;
 iii.    Uses floating tranches;
  iv.    It is results-oriented, i.e., uses performance indicators;
   v.    Borrower commitment was good or better;'
                                                                          2
 vi.     Stakeholder participated in preparation phase in important areas;
 vii.    No waiver issued; and
viii.    No extension of closing date.

 The score on that index, therefore, varies from 0 to 8.

 Table 4: Quality of Conditionality for FY96-97 HIAL Countries
       Operation             (i)      (ii)      (iii)      (iv)    (v)     (vi)     (vii)     (viii)      QCI
    Cameroon                  0        1          1          0      0        0        1         0           3
    ChadI                     1        1          0          1      1        0        1         1           6
    Chad II                   1        1          0          1      1        0        1         1           6
    C6te d'Lvoire             1        0          1          0      0        1        0         0           3
    Kenya                     0        0          0          1      0        0        1         1           3
    Malawi                    0        0          1          1      0        1        0         0           3
    Madagascar                1         1         0          0      1        0        1         1           5
    Mali                      1        0          1          1      1        0        1         0           5
    Mauritania                1        0          1          0      1        1        1         1           6
    Mozambique                1         1         0          1      0        1        1         1           6
    Niger                      1        1         0          0      1        1        1         1           6
    Tanzania                   1       0          1          0      0        1        1         0           4
    Uganda                    1        0          1          1      1        1        1         1           7
    Zambia                    0        0          0          1       1       1        1         0           4
    Average                  0.7      0.4        0.5        0.7    0.7      0.7      0.9       0.7         4.8




   The rating is based on interviews with task managers. I was given only if the assessment at the time was good or
 better with reservations (without "but facing internal opposition" or "but vested interests in some areas").
  2According   to information provided by task managers.
                                                       42



2.3       Extent of HIAL Implementation

OED Evaluations

2.3.1. To date, OED has evaluated two HIAL Operations: Niger's Public Sector Adjustment
Credit I (PSAC I) and Zambia's Second Economic and Social Adjustment Credit (ESAC II).
Both projects have satisfactory outcome and modest institutional development impact. Moreover,
ratings on sustainability show likely sustainability for Niger's PSAC I, whereas Zambia's ESAC
II is uncertain. A comparison with earlier adjustment performance in terms of the Aggregate
Project Performance Index (APPI) indicates that HIAL has contributed to substantial performance
improvement ir Niger, but only marginal improvement in Zambia (Table 1). Also, in terms of
the APPI measure, those two HIAL countries seem to outperform the rest of Africa Region but
lag behind the rest of the Bank.

Table 1: Aggregate Project PerformanceIndex (APPI) in HIAL Countries
                                       Pre-HIAL                                             HIAL
                                    Average APPI                                       A verage APPI
                                       (std. dev.)                                        (std. dev.)
                                   No. of Ad]. Projs                                  No. ofAdj. Projs.
 Niger                                    3.0                                                7.0
                                         (1.41)                                              (O)
                                           2a                                                 I
 Zambia                                   6.29                                               6.5
                                         (1.39)                                              (0)
                                           6b
 SSA                                                              6.26
                                                                 (1.67)
                                                                   93
 Bank-wide                                                        6.85
                                                                 (1.83)
                                                                  229
  The two adjustment project, are: Economic Recovery Credit (FY94) and Public Enterprise Sector Adjustment Loan
(FY87).
b The six adjustment projects are: Economic and Social Adjustment Credit (FY94), First and Second Privatization and
Industry Reforms Credits (FY92 and FY93, respectively),Economic Recovery and Investment Credit (FY96), First and
Second Economic Recovery Credits (FY86 and FY91, respectively).



Progress Assessments of FY96-98 HIAL Operations by Task Managers

2.3.2. Bank task managers report on the status of projects and programs in Project Status
Reports (PSRs), formerly called Form 590s. The three main categories assessed are
implementation progress, progress towards development objectives and - since 1997 project risk
(Table 2). One or more reports are available for 17 HIAL operations, while an assessment of
progress for three operations has not yet been made. Two of the single tranche operations were
disbursed in FY96 and FY97 and are no longer rated after 1997 and 1998,respectively.

2.3.3. In the 1998 assessments, only one operation (Kenya SAC I) had an unsatisfactory
implementation rating and highly unsatisfactory development objectives rating. The operation
was closed without disbursement of the second tranche in mid-1998. Another operation
(Cameroon SAC II) was rated unsatisfactory in implementation progress in mid 1997. But in
contrast to the Kenya SAC, implementation problems with the Cameroon SAC-largely due to
the IMF program becoming repeatedly off track-were resolved, the two floating tranches have
been disbursed since, and the rating improved.
                                              43


2.3.4. The Cameroon SAC is the only HIAL operation where the assessment of implementation
improved after a prior deterioration, whereas in four of the other nine operations for which more
than one assessment was available the rating has been lowered.

2.3.5. In 1997, a risk rating was introduced as a new element in the implementation reports. Of
the twelve operations assessed, five carried "substantial" risks, five "modest," one "low" or
"negligible," and one was not risk-rated. However, risk ratings improved slightly in 1998. In
addition to the one high-risk operation (Kenya SAC), five or one-third of the operations assessed
were found to have "substantial," seven "moderate" and two "low or negligible" risks (Table 2).

2.3.6. The most frequent risk factor was government administrative capacity. Political and
security conditions, climatic and environmental conditions, and private sector response were also
considered important risk factors, but their relative weights differed in various years.

Implementation Experience in the Non-SSA Adjusting Countries

2.3.7. Given the very small sample, it is not really possible to generalize whether HIAL has
shown better implementation progress than IDA adjustment lending outside Africa. Only one
half of the operations have more than one tranche, and would potentially need waivers and
extensions. To date only two of these multi-tranche credits have been fully disbursed (of which
one with a waiver and an extension), and the remaining three operations had one tranche left for
disbursement each. As of end- 1998, it appearedquestionable whether the respective governments
would be able to meet conditionality in two of these cases. In another case, the previous tranche
was disbursed only with a long delay and two waivers, which were qualified partly due to the
Hurricane Mitch (Table 3).

2.3.8. There appears to be a major difference in the perception of risk of the operations. While
a substantial part of the HIAL operations is considered to carry substantial risk, none of the
project status reports of non-SSA IDA adjustment operations has that assessment. The risk is
generally considered lower, while on the other hand, the share of credits with unsatisfactory
implementation progress is higher than in HIAL. This might in fact be an indication that HIAL
has shown advantages.
                                                                 44


Table 2: hAL Progress Ratings in Form 590s for 1996, 1997 and 1998
         Operation             Categogy                 1996                         1997                      1998(latest)
Cameroon                     IPR              Satisfactory                 Unsatisfactory               Satisfactory
                             RR                                            Substantial                  Modest
                             DOR              Satisfactory                 Satisfactory                 Satisfactory
C6te d'Ivoire                IPR              Satisfactory                 Satisfactory                 Satisfactory
                             RR                                            Modest                       Modest
                             DOR              Satisfactory                 Satisfactory                 Satisfactory
Kenya                        [PR              Satisfactory                 Unsatisfactory               Unsatisfactory
                             RR                                            Substantial                  High
                             DOR              Satisfactory                 Satisfactory                 Highly unsatisfactory
Malawi                       IPR              Highly satisfactory          Satisfactory                 Satisfactory
                             RR                                            Modest                       Modest
                             DOR              Highly satisfactoTy          Satisfactory                 Satisfactory
Mali                         IPR              Highly satisfactory          Satisfactory                 Satisfactory
                             RR                                            Low or negligible            Low or negligible
                             DOR              Highly satisfactory          Satisfactory                 Satisfactory
Mauritania                   IPR              Highly satisfactory          Highly satisfactory          Satisfactory
                             RR                                                                         Modest
                             DOR              Highly satisfactory          Highly satisfactory          Highly satisfactory
Zambia                       1PR              Satisfactory                 Satisfactory                 Satisfactory
                             RR                                            Modest                       Modest
                             DOR              Satisfactory                 Satisfactory                 Satisfactory
Mozambique                   IPR                                           Satisfactory                 Satisfactory
                             RR                                            Modest                       Modest
                             DOR                                           Satisfactory                 Satisfactory
Niger                        IPR                                           Satisfactory                 Satisfactory
                             RR                                            Substantial                  Substantial
                             DOR                                           Satisfactory                 Satisfactory
Uganda SAC III               IPR                                           Satisfactory                 Satisfactory
                             RR                                            Substantial                  Substantial
                             DOR                                           Satisfactory                 Satisfactory
Chad SAC I                   IPR              Satisfactory
                              RR
                              DOR             Satisfactory
Chad SAC 11                   IPR                                          Satisfactory                 Satisfactory
                              RR                                           Modest                       Substantial
                              DOR                                          Satisfactory                 Satisfactory
Madagascar                    IPR                                          Satisfactory
                              RR                                           Substantial
                              DOR                                          Satisfactory
Tanzania                      IPR                                                                       Satisfactory
                              RR                                                                        Substantial
                              DOR                                                                       Satisfactory
Cape Verde (*)                IPR                                                                       Satisfactory
                              RR                                                                        Substantial
                              DOR                                                                       Satisfactory
Guinea                        IPR                                                                       Satisfactory
                              RR                                                                        Modest
                              DOR                                                                       Satisfactory
Uganda Education              IPR                                                                       Satisfactory
SECAL
                              RR                                                                        Low or negligible
                              DOR                                                                       Highly satisfactory

No PSR yet available
for:
Senegal
Cameroon SAC III
Ghana ERSO
 IPR(Implementation Progress Rating): highly satisfactory, satisfactory, unsatisfactory, highly unsatisfactory, not rated.
 DOR(Development Objectives Rating): highly satisfactory,satisfactory, unsatisfactory, highly unsatisfactory.
 RR (Risk Rating): high, substantial, modest, low or negligible, not rated.
 (*) PSR of January 26, 1998.
                                                   45


Table 3: Non-SSA Progress Ratings in the PSRJForm 590s for 1998


             Operation                  Category                     1998 (latest)
  Bolivia CPAC                       IPR                 Satisfactory
                                     RR                  Moderate
                                     DOR                 Satisfactory
  Cambodia ERC                       IPR                 Satisfactory
                                     RR                  Moderate
                                     DOR                 Satisfactory
  Honduras PSMSAC                    IPR                 Satisfactory
                                     RR                  Moderate
                                     DOR                 Satisfactory
  Yemen ERC                          IPR                 Satisfactory
                                     RR                  Moderate
                                     DOR                 Satisfactory
  Mongolia BESAC                     IPR                 Satisfactory
                                     RR                  Moderate
                                     DOR                 Satisfactory
  Tajikistan ARSP                     IPR                Unsatisfactory
                                     RR                  Moderate
                                      DOR                Unsatisfactory
  Nicaragua FSAC                      IPR                Satisfactory
                                      RR                 Moderate
                                      DOR                Satisfactory
  Albania ARC (questions)             IPR                Satisfactory
                                      RR                 Moderate
                                      DOR                Satisfactory
  Yemen FSAC (caveat)                 IPR                Unsatisfactory
                                      RR                 Moderate
                                      DOR                Satisfactory
  Tajikistan PCRC                     IPR                Satisfactory
                                      RR                 Low or negligible
                                      DORI               Satisfactory
  IPR(Implementation  Progress                            satisfactory,
                                Rating):highlysatisfactory,                         highly
                                                                      unsatisfactory,
                not
  unsatisfactory, rated.
  DOR(Development    Objectives Rating):                  satisfactory,
                                        highlysatisfactory,                         highly
                                                                      unsatisfactory,
  unsatisfactory.
  RR (RiskRating):                  modest,lowor negligible, rated.
                    high, substantial,                      not
                                               46



2.4.    Portfolio Performance


2.4.1. The HIAL initiative has been introduced recently. There is a long lead time before
OED's independent evaluation of HIAL outcomes. In the meantime, there are now in place
measures of quality at entry and at various stages of implementation and we are able to measure
interim results and leading indicators of likely outcomes. For instance, for projects under
implementation, an assessment of projects at risk will be undertaken. Also, OED's evaluation of
earlier projects will be included.

2.4.2. For projects under implementation, an assessment of projects at risk by the Quality
Assurance Group (QAG) shows that SSA has the worst scores of any region on all aspects of
risks examined-actual problem projects, potential problems projects, and net commitments at
risk (Tables 1, 2 and 3). As of November 12, 1998, SSA was the region with the highest share of
actual problem projects-22 percent of the portfolio (87 projects and US$15 billion of
commitments), compared to a Bank-wide average of 17 percent. Besides these 87 projects,
another 43 in the portfolio are considered potential problem projects as they exhibit symptoms
which are known to be precursors of future problems. Thus, altogether, the SSA portfolio
includes 130 projects with high risk of failure at completion. These projects at risk constitute 32
percent of the portfolio in ternns of both the number of projects and share of commitments, well
above the Bank-wide averages of 25 percent and 22 percent, respectively (Table 1).

2.4.3. Of the 400 SSA projects assessed by QAG, only four operations were classified as HIAL.
Of these, three were rated as non-risky--Guinea's Public Expenditure Management Adjustment
Credit (US$70 million), Tanzania's SAC I (US$132 million), and Uganda's SAC III (US$125
million)-and one as potential risk-Cameroon's SAC III (US$180 million). The three flags
responsible for rating Cameroon's HIAL operation as potential risk are: long effectiveness delays
(with elapsed time between Board presentation and effectiveness of more than three months),
risky country, and risky sub-sector (see Table 4 for definitions of flags).
                                                                      47




Table 1: Performance of the Ongoing Portfolio by Region (as of November 12, 1998)
                                       Portfolio            Actual Problem    Potential Problem   Projects at risk    Net Commitments at
                                                                Projects          Projects                                   risk
                              Commitments          No. of   No.          %     No.         %      No.         %       (USSM)      %
                                 (US$M)         projects
SSA                              14,758.6          400       87       21.8     43       10.8      130        32.5     4,678.2     31.7
East Asia and Pacific            36,605.6          275       44       16.0     33       12.0       77        28.0     7,890.0     21.6
Europe and Central Asia          21,894.8          291       44       15.1     24        8.2       68        23.4     6,733.3     30.8
Latin America and Caribbean      30,580.1          329       42       12.8      14       4.3       56        17.0      3,786.5    12.4
Middle East and North Africa      6,408.0          115       20       17.4      5        4.3       25        21.7      1,214.1    18.9
Souhi Asia                       19,166.0          154       29       18.8      10       6.5       39        25.3      3,591.2    18.7
Bank-wide                       129,413.1         1564      266       17.0     129       8.2      395        25.3     27,893.3    21.6
Countries Selected for HIAL       9005.9         228.0      45.0      19.7     30       13.2       75        32.9      3,487.4    38.7
Source: World Bank Quality Asaurance Group.


                                                                              12,
Table 2: Performance of the Ongoing Portfolio for SSA Countries (as of November 1998)
                                       Portfolio            Actual Problem    Potential Problem   Projects at risk    Net Commitments at
                                                                Projects          Projects                                   risk
                               Commitments         No. of   No.          %     No.         %      No.          %       (USSM)      %
                                 (USXM)         projects
1. Angola                         216.1             9        4        44.4      0        0.0       4          44.4       88,1      40.8
2. Benin                          224.5            14        2        14.3      0        0.0       2          14.3       42.8      19.1
3. Burkina Faso                   332.2            13        3        23.1       0       0.0       3          23.1       62.5      18.8
4. Burundi                        107.7             6        3        50.0       1       16.7      4          66.7       62.7      58.2
5. Cameroon                       359.9              9       4        44.4       3       33.3       7         77.8      339.9      94.4
6. Cape Verde                      82.5              6       0         0.0       0       0.0        0         0.0         0         0.0
7. Central Afiican Rep.            53.7              3       3        100.0      0       0.0        3        100.0       53.7      100.0
8. Chad                            186.5             9       2        22.2       1       11.1       3        33.3        86.4       46.3
9. Comoros                         46.6              6       2        33.3       0       0.0        2        33.3         8.6       18.5
10. Congo, Rep.                    9.0                1      1        100.0      0       0.0        1        100.0         9       100.0
11. Cote d'Ivoire                 854.2              16      1         6.3       2       12.5       3         18.8       159.7      18.7
12. Djibouti                       6.5                1      0         0.0       I      100.0       I        100.0        6.5      100.0
13. Eq. Guinea                     5.5                1      1        100.0      0       0.0        I        100.0        5.5      100.0
14. Eritrea                        125.4             5       0         0.0       0       0.0        0          0.0        0.0       0.0
15. Ethiopia                      1,297.4            13      3        23.1       1       7.7        4         30.8       130.7      10.1
16. Gabon                          42.7               4      0         0.0       3       75.0       3         75.0       20.2      47.3
17. Gambia, The                    67.5               5      0         0.0       0       0.0        0         0.0          0        0.0
18. Ghana                         1,119.3            27      7        25.9       2       7.4        9         33.3       460.6     41.2
19. Guinea                         318.8             12      2        16.7       1       8.3        3         25.0       77.4      24.3
20. Guinea-Bissau                  64.0               5       1       20.0       0       0.0        1         20.0       14.3      22.3
21. Kenya                         676.2              14      5        35.7       6       42.9       11        78.6       574.2     84.9
22. Lesotho                       202.0               6      0         0.0       0       0.0        0          0.0         0        0.0
23. Madagascar                    586.6              21      4        19.0       6       28.6       10        47.6       297.8     50.8
24. Malawi                        654.4              16      4        25.0       2       12.5       6         37.5       284.5     43.5
25. Mali                          428.3              15      3        20.0       1        6.7       4         26.7       65.3      15.2
26. Mauritania                     161.0              9      1        11.1       0       0.0        I         11.1       18.2      11.3
27. Mauritius                      73.0               6      3        50.0       0        0.0       3         50.0       22.4       30.7
28. Mozambique                    676.2              15      0         0.0       1        6.7        1         6.7       18.2       2.7
29. Niger                         265.4               9       1       11.1       I        11.1      2         22.2       39.9       15.0
30. Nigeria                       958.6              13      3        23.1       0        0.0       3         23.1       164.6      17.2
31. Rwanda                        214.9               9      2        22.2       2       22.2       4         44.4       62.9      29.3
32. Sao Tome & Principe            21.2               2      0         0.0       1       50.0        1         50.0       11.4     53.8
33. Senegal                        561.1             16       1        6.3       0        0.0        1         6.3       26.5       4.7
34. Seychelles                      4.5               1      0         0.0       0        0.0       0          0.0          0       0.0
35. Sierra Leone                   265.4              9      8        88.9       1        1.1I      9         100.0      265.4     100.0
36. South Africa                   46.0                1     0         0.0       0        0.0       0           0.0         0       0.0
37. Swaziland                       29.0               1     0         0.0       I       100.0       I        100.0        29      100.0
38. Tanzania                      1,297.5            21       6       28.6       1        4.8        7         33.3      742.3      57.2
39. Togo                           184.0              6      2        33.3       2        33.3      4          66.7       104       56.5
40. Uganda                         925.8             22       3       13.6       1        4.5        4         18.2       182       19.7
41. Zambia                         495.8              13     2         15.4      2        15.4       4         30.8       141       28.4
42. Zimbabwe                       511.7              10      0        0.0       0        0.0        0          0.0         0        0.0


 SSA total                        14,758.6           400     87                  43                130                  4,678.2
 SSA average                        36.9             9.5     2.1       21.8      1.0     10.8      3.1        32.5        11.7      31.7


 Source: World Bank Quality Assuance   Group.
                                                                       48


Table 3: Projects at Risk for Countries Selected for HAL: QAG Risk Assessment
                                                                Actual Problem       Potential Problem
                                           Portfolio               Projects              Projects           Projects at risk   Net Commitmentsat risk
                                   Commitments        No. of
                                     (USSM)          projects    No.          %       No.         %         No.          %     (USSM)          %
1. Cameroon                           359.9              9        4         44.4       3        33.3         7          77.8    339.9        94.4
2. Chad                                186.5             9        2         22.2       1        11.1         3          33.3     86.4        46.3
3. C6te d'lvoire                      854.2             16        1          6.3       2        12.5         3          18.8    159.7        18.7
4. Ghana                              1119.3            27        7         25.9       2         7.4         9          33.3    460.6        41.2
5. Guinea                             318.8             12        2         16.7       1         8.3         3          25.0     77.4        24.3
6. Kenya                              676.2             14        5         35.7       6        42.9         11         78.6    574.2        84.9
7. Madagascar                         586.6             21        4         19.0       6        28.6         10         47.6    297.8        50.8
8. Malawi                             654.4             16        4         25.0       2        12.5         6          37.5    284.5        43.5
9. Mali                               428.3             15        3         20.0       1         6.7         4          26.7     65.3        15.2
10. Mauritania                          161              9        1         11.1       0         0.0         I          11.1     18.2        11.3
11. Mozambique                        676.2             15        0          0.0       1         6.7         1          6.7      18.2         2.7
12. Niger                             265.4             9         1         11.1       I        11.1         2          22.2     39.9        15.0
13. Tanzania                          1297.5            21        6         28.6       1         4.8         7          33.3    742.3        57.2
14. Uganda                            925.8             22        3         13.6       1         4.5         4          18.2     182         19.7
15. Zambia                            495.8             13        2         15.4       2        15.4         4          30.8     141         28.4
HIAL total                           9,005.9           228       45                   30                    75                 3487.4
Average                                39.5            15.2      3.0        19.7       2         13.2        5          32.9     15.3        38.7
Source: World Bank Quality Assurance Group.

Table 4: Potential Problem Project Flags
             Flag/Indicator                                                 Definition/Rating                                      Source
                                                                                                                              Unit Responsible
1. Long effectiveness delays                  The elapsed time between Board presentation and effectiveness is more than Quality Assurance
                                              nine months for investment and more than three months for adjustment and Group
                                              emergency operations (this flag is tumed off three years after Board approval).

2. Poor compliance with legal covenants       Compliance with legal covenants rated 3 or 4 in the last Form 590 or PSR         Country/Sector Unit

3. Project management problems                Management performance rated 3 or 4 in the last Form 590 or PSR                  Country/Sector Unit

4. Shortage of counterpart funds              Counterpart fund availability rated 3 or 4 in the last Form 590 or PSR           Country/Sector Unit

5. procurement problems                       Procurement progress rated 3 or 4 in the last Form 590 or PSR                    Country/Sector Unit

6. Poor financial performance                 Financial performance rated 3 or 4 in the last form 590 or PSR                   Country/Sector Unit

7. Environmental/Resettlement problems        Environmental/resettlement rating of 3 or 4 in the last Form 590 or PSR          Country/Sector Unit

8. Significant disbursement problems          Disbursement delays of 18 months or more for investment                          Quality Assurance
                                              operations or six months or more for adjustment and emergency operations         Group

9. Long history of past problems              Unsatisfactory implementation progress and/or development objective rating Quality Assurance
                                              for two or more consecutiveARPPs in previous years (tumed off after project Group
                                              restructuring).

10. In risky country                          In a country with a net disconnect of 20% or more, or when the share of          Operations Evaluation
                                              commitments associated with these unsatisfactory projects is more than 40%       Department
                                              over the previous 5 years

11. in a risky sub-sector                     In a sub-sector with a net disconnect of 20% or more, or when the share of       Operations Evaluation
                                              commitments associated with these unsatisfactory projects is more than 40%       Department
                                              over the previous 5 years

12. Poor macroeconomic setting       .        located in a country with weak macromanagement (includes countries were DEC macroeconomic
                                              the 3 year average of the DEC macroeconomic rating is below 3; or if the rating
                                              average is above 3 but last yeares rating is below 2.5; if the average is below 3
                                              but last year's rating is above 3.5, the country is excluded
                                                 49



2.4.4. For the 15 countries                                                for
                                                                     Ratings SSA,
                                                           Performance
                                         Figure1: Adjustment
selected for HIAL, 65                               HIALandBank-wide, -98
                                                                     FY91
adjustment operations have
already been evaluated at                                        --_.-l
completion compared to 98 in             80                 l-l      ----------
SSA during FY91-98. The                  70
results of these evaluations in          60
terms        of      outcomes,           50 .
sustainability,    institutional         40
development impact, Bank                 30                                     Bank-wide
performance, and Borrower                 20                               HIAL
performance are given in                  10
Tables 5, 6 and 7,                         0             _            SSA
respectively. On average, AL                    E
in countries selected for                       O     -       E
HIAL outperformed SSA                           2
region but lags behind the rest
of the Bank.         Figure I 1
compares SSA, HIAL, and _____
Bank-wide AL performance in terms of whether outcomes are satisfactory; whether project
sustainability is likely; and whether institutional development impact is substantial. In all of
these assessment aspects, countries selected for HIAL fall between the regional performance at
the lower end and the Bank-wide performance at the higher spectrum.

2.4.5. A ranking of 33 SSA countries on the basis of OED's Aggregate Project Performance
Index (APPI) shows that with the exception of few countries-Mozambique, Ghana, Mauritania,
and Tanzania-countries selected for HIAL are not among the top 15 performers. Furthernore, 4
out of 15 HIAL countries fall in the lower end of the distribution of the portfolio performance as
portrayed by APPI-Niger ranking 31st out of 33 SSA countries evaluated; Cameroon 26th;
Chad 21st; and Kenya 20th (Table 5).'

2.4.6. A comparison between compliance with conditionality and portfolio performance as
measured by APPI is performed for the 15 countries selected for HIAL. The OED (1997)
compliance with conditionality index was used to classify countries into good, weak and poor
compliers (see Table 8). This classification turns out to mimic closely the portfolio performance
index (APPI). The rank correlation coefficient is positive and very high (0.82) and significantly
different from zero at the one percent level of significance.




1The APPIis a cardinalindexthat summarizes projectspecific
                                               the                ordinalratingson outcome,
             and
sustainability institutional   development impact. It rangesfromtwo to ten,wherea scoreof two
                                           (ID)
corresponds a projectwith highlyunsatisfactory
            to                                    outcome, unlikelysustainability negligibleID
                                                                                 and
impact,and a score of ten reflectsa projectwithhighlysatisfactory outcome,                    and
                                                                           likelysustainability
substantial impact. The averageAPPIin the Bank-wide
          ID                                              adjustment portfolio(basedon 229 evaluated
projectsbetweenFY91-98) 6.85,with a standard
                            is                     deviationof 1.83. The APPIat the countrylevelis the
averageindicatorof all projectsevaluatedfor eachcountry.
                                                         50



Table 5: OED Ratings of Completed SSA Adjustment Projects (FY91-98)

                      No. of, Outcome    Sustainability     ID Impact             APPI
        Country       Proj- % Sat Rated % Likely Rated      %       Rated Average Rated Rank by
                       ects        proj.          proj. Substantial proj.         proj.  APPI
Benin                    2       100        2         100         2          0          2        7.00        2         9
Burkina Faso             3       100        3         67          3          0          3        7.08        3         7
Burundi                  3        0         3          0          3          0          3        4.00        2         29
Cameroon                 3       33         3          0          3          0          3        4.75        3         26
Central African          1        0         1          0          1          0          1        2.00        1         32
Republic
Chad                     2       50         2         50          2          0          2        5.63        2         21
Comoros                  1        0         1          0          1          0          1        4.25        1         27
Congo                    1       100        1          0          1          0          1        6.75        1         13
CMte d'Ivoire            7       86         7         43          7          14         7        6.79        7         12
Ethiopia                 I       100        1         10)         1          0          1        9.00        1          1
Gabon                    I       100        1         100         1          0          1        6.00        1         19
Gambia                   1       100        1         100         1          0          1        7.25        1          6
Ghana                    8       88         8         88          8          75         8        7.57        7          5
Guinea                   3       67         3         33          3          0          3        6.58        3         16
Guinea-Bissau            2       50         2          0          2          50         2        7.75        1         4
Kenya                    4       75         4         25          4          0          4        5.94        4         20
Madagascar               3       67         3         33          3          0          3        5.38        2         23
Malawi                   3       67         3         100         3          33         3        6.83        3         11
Mali                     6       83         6         67          6          17         6        6.63        6         14
Mauritania               3       100        3         67          3          0          3        7.08        3          7
Mozambique               4       100        4         100         4          50         4        8.19        4          3
Niger                    2        0         2          0          2          0          2        3.00        2         31
Nigeria                  3       33         3          0          3          33         3        5.25        3         24
Rwanda                   1        0         1          0          1          0          1        3.75        1         30
S.o Tome and             2       50         2          0          2          0          2        4.88        2         25
Principe
Senegal                   5       80         5         40          5         75           4       6.63        4         14
Sierra Leone              1      100          1        100         1        100           1       8.25        1         2
Somalia                   1       0           1         0          1          0           1       2.00        1         32
Tanzania                 3        67         3         67          3         33           3       7.00        3          9
Togo                      3       0          3          0          3          0           3       4.17        3         28
Uganda                   7        57         7         71          7         29           7       6.54        7         17
Zambia'!                  7       86         7          0          7         43           7       6.36        7         18
Zimbabwe                  1      100          1         0          1          0           1       5.50        1         22
Total/average            98       67         98        45         98         24          97       6.26       93
HIAL                     65       74         65        52         65         26          65       6.54       63
total/average
Note: The Aggregate Project Performance Index (APPI) (former DEI) is a cardinal index, ranging from 2 to 10, which
summarizes the project specific ordinal ratings on outcome, sustainabilityand institutional development (ID) impact (a sco.e of
6.75 corresponds to a project with satisfactory outcome, uncertain sustainability and modest ID impact). For the period in
question, the average DEI in the Bank-wide adjustment portfolio (based on portfolio 229 evaluated projects) is 6.85, with a
standard deviation of 1.83.
Underlined countries denote those selected for HIAL.
a/ The number of projects rated includes one completed and evaluated HIAL operation-Second                      Economic and
Social Adjustment Credit.

Source: DED Project Performance Ratings.
                                              51



Table 6: OED Ratings of Bank Performance for SSA Adjustment Lending (FY91-98)

                 No. of   Identification    Appraisal       Supervision    Bank Performance'
     Country                       Rated           Rated             Rated
                Projects % Sat
    .____________                 proj.    % Sat   proj.   % Sat    proj.   % Avg     Rank
Benin              2      100       2      100      2       100       2      100        1
BurkinaFaso        3      100       3      100      3       100       3      100        1
Burundi            3      33        3       33      3       100       3      56        28
Cameroon           3      67        3       67      3       100       3      78        20
CentralAfrican     1      100       1        0      1        0        1      33        30
Republic
Chad               2      100       2      100      2       100       2      100        1
Comoros            1      100       1       0       1       100       1      67        22
Congo              1      100       1      100      1        0        1      67        22
C6ted'Ivoire       7      100       7       86      7       86        7      90        17
Ethiopia           1      100       1      100      1       100       1      100        1
Gabon              1      100       1      100      1       100       1      100        1
Gambia             1      100       1      100      1       100       1      100        1
Ghana              8      100       8      100      8       100       8      100        1
Guinea             3      100       2       67      3       50        2      72        21
Guinea-Bissau      2       50       2       0       2       50        2       33       30
Kenya              4       75       4       50      4        75       4      67        22
Madagascar         3      100       3      100      3       100       3      100        1
Malawi             3       67       3       67      3        67       3      67        22
Mali               6      100       6       50      6       100       6       83       19
Mauritania         3      100       3       67      3       100       3       89       18
Mozambique         4      100       4      100      4       100       4      100        1
Niger              2      100       2       50      2        50       2       67       22
Nigeria            3       67       3       33      3        0        3       33       30
Rwanda             1       0        1        0       1      100       1       33       30
SaoTome and        2      100       2      100      2       100       2      100        1
Principe
Senegal             5     100        5      100      5      80        5       93       16
SierraLeone         1     100        1      100      1      100       1       100       1
Somalia             1     100        1      n/a      0      100       1       100       1
Tanzania            3     67         3      67       3      67        3       67       22
Togo                3     50         2       0       3      100       3       50       29
Uganda              7     100        6      100      6      86        7       95       14
Zambia              7     100        7      100      7      86        7       95       14
Zimbabwe            1     100        1      100      1      100       1       100       1
Total/average      98      89       95      75      96      85        97
HIAL               65      94       63      81      64      88        64
total/average
                                                                    appraisaland supervision
/a Bank performanceindex is a simple averagerating of identification,
ratings.
Underlined                            for
          countriesdenotethoseselected HIAL.
Source: OEDProjectPerformance Ratings.
                                                52



Table 7: OED Ratings of BorrowerPerformance for SSA Adjustment Lending (FY91-98)

                                                                  Covenant            Borrower
                  No. of   Preparation     Implementation        Compliance         Perfonnance"a
                  Proj-           Rated             Rated               Rated
       Country     ects    % Sat proj.      % Sat   proj.       % Sat   proj.     % Avg      Rank
 Benin              2      100      2        100      2           0        2       67         18
 Burkina Faso       3      100      3        100      3          100       3       100         1
 Burundi            3       50      2         0       2           0        2        17        31
 Cameroon           3       50      2        33       3          33        3       39         25
 Central African    1       0        1        0       1          100       1       33         26
 Republic
 Chad                 2       100        1        50    2        100        2       83        12
 Comoros               1        0        1        0     1         0         1       0         32
 Congo                1       100        1       100    1        100        1      100         1
 CMted'Ivoire         7        67        6        86    7        71         7      75         17
 Ethiopia              I      100        1       100    1        100        1      100         1
 Gabon                 1      100        1       100    1        100        1      100         1
 Gambia               1       100        1       100    1        100        1      100         1
 Ghana                8        86       7        71     7        86         7      81         13
 Guinea               3        50       2        50     2        33         3      44         24
 Guinea-Bissau        2        0         1       100    1        100        1      67         18
Kenya                 4        67       3        50     4        25         4      47         23
Madagascar            3       100       2        50     2        50         2      67         18
Malawi                3        67       3        100    3        100        3      89         10
Mali                  6        83       6        67     6        83         6      78         14
Mauritania            3       100       3        100    3        100        3      100         1
Mozambique            4       100       4        100    4        100        4      100         1
Niger                 2        50       2         0     2        50         2      33         26
Nigeria               3        0        3        33     3        67         3      33         26
Rwanda                1        0         1        0     1        100        1      33         26
Sao Tome and          2       100       2        50     2        50         2      67         18
Principe
Senegal               5       100       5        60      5       75        4       78         14
Sierra Leone          1       100       1        100     1       100        1      100         1
Somalia               1       n/a       0         0      1        0         1       0         32
Tanzania              3       67        3        67      3       67         3      67         18
Togo                  3       50        2         0      3       33         3      28         30
Uganda                7       100       6        86      7       67         6      84         11
Zambia                7       71        7        71      7       86        7       76         16
Zimbabwe              1       100       1        100     1       100        1      100         1
Total/average        98        76      86        66     93        70       92
HIAL                 65        79      57        71     62        73       62
total/average
/a Borrower performance rating is a simple average of   three ratings preparation, implementation and
covenant compliance.
Underlined countries denote those selected for HIAL.
Source: OED Project Performance Ratings.
                                                    53




Table 8: OED (1997) Index of Compliance with Conditionality and APPI
                                 OED         No. of        Rank                  No. of    Rank
                               Compliance   Projects        By         APPI     Projects    by
                                 Index       Rated       Compliance   Ratings    Rated     APPI
Good compliers
 Ghana                             1.6         10            1         7.57        7        2
 Malawi                            2.2         6             6         6.83        3        5
 Mali                              1.8         3             2         6.63        6        6
 Mauritania                        1.8         3             2         7.08        3        3
 Mozambique                         1.8        2             2         8.19        4        1
 Tanzania                          2.1         4             5         7.00        3        4
Group average                       1.9        5                       7.22        4
Weak compliers
 C6te d'lvoire                     2.8         10           11         6.79        7        7
 Guinea                            2.5         4            7          6.58        3        8
 Madagascar                        2.8         4            11         5.38        2        10
 Niger                             2.6         2            8          3.00        2        15
 Uganda                            2.6         2            8          6.54        7        9
 Zambia                            2.6         1            8          6.29        7        11
Group average                      2.7         4                       5.76        5
Poor compliers
 Cameroon                          3.4         2            14         4.75        3        14
 Chad                              3.7         1            15         5.63        2        13
 Kenya                             3.1         7            13         5.94        4        12
Group average                      3.4         3                       5.44        3
Source: OED Project Performance Ratings.
                                            55


                                                                                   Annex 3

3.   Policy Outcomes and Impact
     Table 3.1:  Fiscal Primary Balance (% of GDP), 1975-98
     Table 3.2:  Annual Inflation Rate on Consumer Price Index (percent), 1975-98
     Table 3.3:  Real Effective Exchange Rate, 1975-98
     Table 3.4:  Current Account Balance (percentage of GDP in current US$), 1975-98
     Table 3.5:  Differential Between Domestic Basic Interest Rate and Real LIBOR Rate,
                  1993-97
     Table 3.6: Non-gold Reserves (weeks of imports), 1975-98
     Table 3.7: Gross Domestic Investment (% of GDP in current prices), 1975-98
     Table 3.8: Real Per Capita GDP Growth, 1975-98
     Table 3.9: Real GDP Growth Rate, 1975-98
     Table 3.10: Mapping Country Performance Rating (CPR) into Country Policy and
                 Institutional Assessment (CPIA)
     Table 3.11: Definitions and Sources of Institutional Measures
     Table 3.12: Governance/InstitutionalIndicators, 1998
     Table 3.13: GovermmentTotal Expenditure on Health (as percentage of GDP), 1975-98
     Table 3.14: Government Total Expenditure on Education (as percentage of GDP), 1975-98
     Table 3.15: Life Expectancy at Birth, 1990-97
     Table 3.16: Infant Mortality Rate (per thousand births), 1990-97
     Table 3.17: Gross Secondary School Enrollment (%), 1990-96
     Table 3.18: Adult Illiteracy Rate (% of people 15+ yrs), 1990-97
     Table 3.19: Age DependencyRatio (dependents to working-age population), 1990-96
     Table 3.20: Total External Debt as percentage of GDP, 1980-98
     Table 3.21: Seigniorage Revenue (Change in Central Bank's claim on the public sector as
                 percentage of GDP), 1975-98
     Table 3.22: Debt Dynamics Table
     Table 3.23: Policy Outcomes and Impact (1996-98 compared to 1993-95)

     Figure 3.1: Trends in Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA), 1995-98
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Annex Table 3.1 (I of2)


Annex Table 3.1: Fiscal Primary Balance (% of GDP), 1975-98
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Period Average
Country Group             1975     1976 1977       1978    1979    1980     1991     1982     1983    1984    1985    1986    1987    1988    1989    1990    1991 1992       1993    1994    1995    1996 1997       1998    93-9596-98
FY 96-97 IHAL,CFA countries
Camoeroon                 -3.0     -3.3    -1.1    -0.7    2.1      0.3      -0.2     0.2     4.1     -0.3    -0.8    -0.3    -11.8   -3.8    -2.8    -5.7     -5.6   -2.8    -2.4    -2.2     1.4    3.9      4.7     3.7     -1.1    4.1
Chad                       I..     27.8    25.4    22.9    13.1     6.4      4.8      4.6     -2.2    -6.4    -8.6    -20.2   -25.2   -19.8   -23.4   -21.7   -12.0   -17.5   -17.1   -18.5   -14.8   -13.9   -11.8   -8.8     -16.8   -I1.2
Cote dIvoire              -4.3     -4.3     0.8    -8.7    -10.9   -12.8    -12.2     -7.3    -3.0     6.3    10.5     7.1     0.2    -6.1    -7.2    -2.2     -2.5   -1.4    -3.7     0.7    2.5     3.1      2.3     2.7     -0.2    2.7
Mali                      -6.2     -4.3    -4.1    -5A     -6 2     -7.9     -7.2     -5.8    -8.7    -6.2    -11.3   -10.4   -8.8    -8.5    -7.9    -6.2    -10.3   -9.2    -8.0    -11.4   -9.1    -6.9    -7.8    -6.6     -9.5    -7.1
Niger                     7.9       7.9     9.6     77     4.6      -0.1     -4.5     -4.3    -4.7    -1.8    -5.6    -6.7    -7.2    -6.7    -7.9    -10.1   -6.5    -6.9    -7.7    -10.2   -5.8    -3.5    -6.8    -5.4     -7.9    -5.2
Average                   -1.4      4.8     6.1     3.2    0.6      -2.8     -3.9     -2.5    -2.9    -1.7    -3.2    -6.1    -10.6   -8.8    -9.8    -9.2     -7.4   -7.4    -7.8    -8.3    -5.2    -3.5    -3.9 -2.7        -7.1    -3.4
FY 96-97 HIAL, non-CPA countries
Kenya                     -6.6     -7.0    -3.9    -3.5    -7.0     -6.5     -6.A     -3.1    -0.9    -2.0    -2.7    -2.5    -1.3    -0.6    -1.2    -1.1.    0.3     1.6     3.1     5.2    6.2     6.0      5.9     3.8     4.9     4.6
Madagancar                -2.1 -2.
                                 1         -12     -3.4 -10.8 -14.7 -11.7 -6.5                -3.6    -2.5    -2.8    -2,6    -2.0    -2.0    -6.5    -3.6    -3.0    -6.7    -6.7    -6.0    -4.0    -4.4    -4.1    -3.1     -5.6    -3.9
Malawi                    -8.3     -5.2    -6.3    -9.2 -16.1 -15.9 -14.7 -13.5 -10.7                 -8.6    -8.4    -18.3 -11.6 -8.0        -6.6    -6.7 -6.0 -12.7 -5.9            -27.8 -6.5      -4.1    -5.4    -4.5     -13.4 -4.7
Mauritania               -19.1 -37.2 -21.0 -14.9 -10.0 -13.7                             1.2
                                                                             -4.6 -11.5 -1            -13.4 -3,7      -1.3    -3.3    -3.5    -8.0    -5.4 -4.9       -2.8    -7.7     1.2     1.9     3.5     3.5     4.4     -1.5     3.8
Mozambique                -7.5 -7.5        -7.5    -7.3    -9.8    -I 1.5   -13.5 -14.9 -24.5 -27.2 -18.4 -23.5 -20.8 -24.5                   -21.7 -25.9 -22.6 -22.7 418.5 -28.0 -18.2 -146                  -17.9 -16.7 -21.6 -16.4
Tanzania                  -8.9 -7.0        -2.8          1.8
                                                   -4.7 -1          -6.1     -6.8     -7.7    -7.1    -5.0    -3.0    -2.1    -4.1    -5.9    -3.1    -1.8     8.1     0.2    -6.6    -3.2    -2.5 -1.0        1.3    -0.6 -4.1 -0.1I
Uganda                    -2.3 -1.7         1.8    -1.1    -3.3 388.2 238.4 155.5 98.0                37.6    22.1     8.7     0.4    -2.1    -2.2    -3.4 -5.3 -10.6         -8.4    -6.8    -6.3    -5.0    -5.0    -5.4     -7.2    -5. 1
Zambia                   -23.1 -14.3 -13.2 -9.0 -11.4               -3.7     -0.4    -10.7 0.4         3.2    -3.1    -3.3    4.2      0.3    -7.2    -4.8 -7.3       -4.1    -1.3    -5.3    -5.1    -1.8    -3.6    -3 8     -3.9    -3.1
Average                   -9.7 -10.2 -6.8          -6.7 -9.3       39.5     22.6      11.0    5.0     -2.2    -2.5    -46     -4.8    -5.8    -7.1    -6.6 -6.4       -7.3    -6.5    -8.8    -4.3    -2.7    -3.4    -3.2     -6.6    -3.1
Avg. HIlALecountries-7.0 -4.5
    all                                    -1.8    -2.9    -5.5    23.2      12.4     5.8     2.0     -2.0    -2.8    -5.2 -7.0       -6.9    -8.1    -7.6 -6.8       -7.3    -7.0    -8.6    -4.6 -3.0 -3.6 -3.1 -6.8 -3.2
Non-HIIALSSA countries                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    tT
Angola                                                       ..     -9.9    -12.5    -13.8    -7.6    -4.2    -1.9    -6.1    -8.1    -9.9    -19.7   -23.7   -15.9   -24.2   -13.3   -16.9   -25.0   -7.8    -7.6    -7.9     -18.4   -7.8
Benin.                             -8.2    -10.9   -6.8    -6.2     -8.2     -3.7     -7.9    -10.6   -11.1   -4.9    -2.7    -7.7    -0.2    -7.5    -6.9     -4.7   -4.3    -1.9    -3.8    -7.8    -. 5    -2.9    -3.2     -4.3    -3.1
Botswana                 -14.8 -12.1 -8.1          -8.9 -5.0        -4.5     -5.4     -5.5    2.9      8.9    16.1    18.4    14.1    13.7     9.6     9.8     8.8     9.2     7.8     2.9     2.2    2.6      3.4     2.3     4.3      2.8
       Fao
Burekina                 -17.2     -17.2   -I7.2   -16.3   -21.1    -7.6     -9.3     -6.3    -5.5    -08     -3.3    -8.7    -9.9    -8.4    -5.6    -6.2     -6.8   -7.7    -8.8    -9.6    -7.9    -8. 1   -8.3    -8.2     -8.8    -8.2
Burundi                   -2.1     -L.6    -1.5    -3.3    -4.8     -9.7    -11.2    -11.9    -17.9   -11.0   -8.8    -6.7    -14.7   -9.6    -7.4    -8.9    -7.2    -9.7    -10.7   -5.1    -5.4    -6.8    -1.9    -3.4     -7.1    -4.0
Cape Verde                -9.5     -9.5    -23.2   -13.0   -20.2    -8.3    -34.1    -36.8    -40.6   -35.7   -35.2   -30.2   -26.1   -17.0   -15.0   -12.2   -18.0   -26.5   -24.8   -32.1   -27.2   -16.2   -12.1   -15.1    -28.0   -14.5
Cenlral Afr. R             .       -9.8    -10.2   -18.5   -7.3    -15.3     -5.6     -4.3    -5.8    -1.4    -5.7    -9.0    -10.I   -9.3    -8.4    -10.5   -12.6   -13.2   -11.8   -11.9   -9.0    -3. 1   -6.3    -6.1     -10.9   -5.2
Comoros                    .         ..    -18.7   -14.1   -7.8    -15.7    -10.5    -11.8    -15.1   -27.6   -28.5   -26.6   -24.5   -18.7   -17.A   -14.2   -17.2   -16.6   -10.9   -22.8   -18.7   -13.8   -11.6   -9.0     -17.5   -11.5
Congao.                              ..      .     -5.2    -2.2    -12.0     0.1     -11.l    -7.5    -3.9    -4.5     8.4    -6.3    -10.0   -2.9     3.2    -4.6    -6.2    -5.2    -2.2    4.9     10.3     3.4     7.2     -0.8    6.9
Congo, Demn.Rep.          -4.5     -8.6    -4.8    -5.2    -3.0     -0.4     -5.8     -3.6    -2.8    -1.8     0.5    -2.9    -6.4    -10.5   -4.6    -3.4    -12.5   -16.7   -17.0   -3.3    -5.7    -4.2    -3.5    -1.8     -8.7    -3.2
Djibouti                  5.1       5.5     6.3     6.5    3.5      6.8      4.4      -6.05   -10.7   -6.9    -5.5    -11.8   -5.6    -6.4    -2.7    -5.0     -1.3   -11.7   -13.0   -8.4    -8.1    -5.4     6.7    -2.3     -9.8    -2.3
Equatorial Guinea          .         ..      .       ..    -17.0   -16.3    -17.9    -17.3    -4.7     3.5     2.9    -27.9   -27.9   -26.4   -31.6   -29.1   -26.7   -17.3   -26.3   -2.8    -2.2     1.4     7.3     2.8     -10.4   5.8


Ethiopia                  -3.8     -4.5    -2.8    -4.5    -2.4    -3.4      -2.8     -5.4    -11.6   -3.0    -9.3    -6.9    -5.7    -7.4    -9.4    -10.7   -10.8   -8.5    -5.7    -8.7    -5.2    -5.6    -2.9    -4.6     -6.5    -4.3
G3abon                    -8.0     -22.0   -22.4   -2.5    5.1      9.6      11.8     10.6     L.1     2.5    -0.4    -7.0    -7.4    -6.4    -35      1.1     3.6     1.0     1.0     4.7    11.8    8.6     11.7    16.3     5.6     12.2
Gamnbia.
       The                -4.6     -3.2    -7.9    -10.6   -7.2    -10.7    -16.1    -15.8    -9.5    -8.2    -10.8   -3.4    -9.6    -12.4    1.6    -4.1    -0.2    -1.2     1.4     1.3    -2.3    -8.0    -6.6     2.8     0.      -4A.2
Ghana                     -9.0     -12.5   -9.3    -9.1    -6.2    -10.8     -7.5     -2.4    -1.5    -2.1    -3.1    -4.1    -4.4    -5.3    -5.5    -5.2    -3.9    -10.7   -10.6   -3.2    -6.0    -7.8 -3.8 -5.1           -6.6    -3.5
Guinea                    4.2       4.2     2.4    3.3     -3.9     -0.5     2.3      -0.3    -1.6    -0.4    -3.0    -5.3    -5.3    -6.9    -6.3    -6.3    -5.9    -6.1    -6.1    23.6    -5.3    -4.8    -4.7    -3.8     4.1     -4.4
Guinea-Bissau            -15.1     -15.1   -15.1   -50.1   -49.0   -217.5   -102.4   -176.A -162.6    -75.1   -38.4   -24.7   -15.2   -19.4   -16.6   -7.5    -18.3   -21.0   -12.3   -5.6    -2.3    -12.2   -l3.2   -2.0     -6.7    -9.2
Lenotho                   -2.7     -2.7    -9.8    -1.9    -5.1    -46.1    -33.6    -19.9    -20.4   -14.2   -21.2   -17.7   -23.5   -21.3   -11.5   -7.1    -4.4    -0.3     3.2     2.1    0.2     -3.7    -1.8    -1.5      1.8    -2.3
Liberia                   0.4      -2.9    -3.8    -9.4    -16.0   -14.5    -10.6    -10.3    -9.8    -11.7   -12.8   -11.4   -14.4   -16.7   -19.6   -18.5   -18.0   -18.0   -17.3   -16.5   -15.1   -13.7   -12.4   -11.0   -16.3    -12.4
Mauritius                 22.7     24.3    23.0    -12.4   -13.8   -10.6     -9.1     -7.4    -3.3    -0.4     0.0     1.1    2.7      2.1    0.3     2.1      2.6     1.2     0.8     0.1    -1.0    -4.6    -1.7    -8.7     8.0     -2.3
Narmihia                  -4.8     -5.0    -4.2    -4.2    -3.5     -2.3     -2.5    -13.8    -14.7   -11.9   -7.7    -5.2    -7.0    -4.6     I.0    -1.1    -3.8    -5.1    -4.1    -1.7    -. 6    -4.0    -4.1    -2.8     -2.8    -3.6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Annex Table 3.1 (2 of 2)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Period Average

      Group
Country                        1975 1976      1977 1978        1979    1980     1981    1982    1983    1984    1985    1986    1987    1988    1989    1990    1991    1992    1993    1994    1995    1996 1997 1998 93-95 96-98

Nigeria                      -10.3 -10.3 -11.9 -6.2 -5.0                -2.8    -9.6    -7.0    -7.8    -0.6    2.7     -0.4    2.0     -1.4    4.4     12.3     8.1    10.3     3.6    0.8     6.9     4.8     2.6      1.4     3.8     29

Rwanda                         -3.8   -4.2 -3.7        -5.5    -5.4     -5.5    -6.6    -5.7    -6.2    -4.2    -4.5    -4.9    -7.5    -6.2    -4.3    -9.0    -9.7 .12.1 -12.4 .8.0 -11.8 -12.0 -12.5 -14.3 -10.7 -12.9

Sao Tome &Principe             18.2   20.0    36.4     53 8    58 4    -33.5    -13.1   -35.8   -22.4   -40.6   -25.7 -27.8     -30.8   -24.1   -51.9   -47.1 -40.8 -39.8 -38.8 -49.6 -48.8 -45.9 -55.4                 -30.3    -45.7   -50.5

Senegal                        -0.2   -1.4    -3.1      0.3    -3.4     -7.0    -8,0    -5.5    -3 4    -1.3    -0.2    -0.2     0.7     0.2    -1.5     0.8     1.7    -1.8    -1.8    -2.4    -0.6    0.1     1.2      22      -1.6     1.2

Seychelles                     -7.0   -1.4    4.1      -8.0    -7.5     -6 6    -8.3    -15.2   -10.6   -9.8    -8.9    -14.6   -1 1     4.3    -1.3    6.3      1.5    0.8     -1.7    3.2     4.5     0.4     4.5      5.1     2.0     3.3

SierraLeone                  -16.6    -12.1   -119     -14.5   -12 5   -11.83   -11.3   -10.3   -8.2    -6.7    -6.0    -8.5    -4.5    -2.0    -4.2    -44     -3 3    -2.6    -3.3    -3.6    -7 8    -5.3    -5.9    -4.7     -4.9    -5.3

Somalia                        4.0     1.8    -2.9     -12.7   -17.9   -10.0    -5.4    -6.3    -3.7    -5.6    -8.0    -7 5    -10.2   -10.6   -9.1    -1.1    -2.9    -4.1    -4.1    -5.7    -5.4    -5.1    -4.8    -4.6     -5.1    -4.8

South Africa                   -7.7   -8.0    -6.7     -6.7    -5.6     0.9     -0.8    -1.8    -2.2    -3.0    0.6     -1.2    -2 2    -0.4     1.6     1.3     0.3    -3.0    -1.0    -0.1I    1.0     1.3    35S      5.5     0.0     3.4

Sadan                          -8.1   -8.5    -9.9     -7.0    -9.2    -10.4    -10.2    -8.0   -8.8    -14.5   -16.0   -14.3   -15.7   -17.2   -14.3   -10 2   -20.7   -18.7   -13.4   -12.7   -15.3   -20.5   -11.3   -40.5 -13.8      -14.1

Swaziland                      10.4   -3.1    -2.2     -14.2   0.6      -8.3    -9.9    -3.0    -3.2    -0.5    -3.3    -4.3     2.4     4.2     5.3     7.4     5.2    -3.6    -5.3    -7.8    -0.6    -5.5    -3.0    -5.0     -4.6    -4.5

Togo                           -2.2   -2.2    -2.2     -6.4    -7.7     -1.7    -2.1    -2.6     0.2    -0.1     0.4    -3.7    -4.9    -1.0    -1.9    -3.1    -4.8    -3.0    -11.7   -7.5    4.3     -3.6    -1.1    -1.7     -7.8    -2.1

Zimbabwe                       -6 4   -5 6    -5.9     -9.3    -11.8    -9 6    -5.4    -4.9    -23.5    27      3.4    -6.3    -5 8    -4.2    -4.3    -3.3    -2.3    -3.4    -2.1    -2.2    -2.7    -0.6    -1.4     14      -24     -0.2

Average                        -3.3   -4.5    -5.0     -6.6    -6.7    -15.1    -10.9   -14.2   -13.5   -8.9    -7.4    -8.6    -8.8    -8.1    -7.8    -6.3    -7.2    -8.7    -8.2    -6.3    -6.5    -5.9    -4.8    -3.9     -7.0    -4.9

Non-SSA, adjusting countries
Bolivia                        -6.3   -5.6    -5.0     -4.2    -8.2     -7.9    -5.7    -15.6   -19.2   -27.8   -16.9   -12.0   -10.3   -12.9   -6.2    -2.8    -3.6    -2.6    -4.5    -2.7    -3.1    -2.2    -4.1    -4.6     -3.5    -3.6



Honduras                       -6 3   -5.5    -4.2     -5.7    -4.1     -7.4    -7.4    -9.7    -10.2   -11.1   -8 7    -7.6    -7 6    -7.4    -7.1    -7.6    -4.4    -4.9    -10.2   -5.6    -2.6    -1 5    -1.0    -1.0     -6 1    -1.2

Lao PDR                      -12.3    -12.3   -12.3    -12.3   -12 3   -10.8    -8.9    -14.2   -9.1    -6.8    -8.7    -5.9    -5.1    -17.4   -12.7   -9.7    -6 1    -6.5    -2.7    -5.0    -4.0    -3.5    -4 3    -4.2     -3.9    -4.0


Tajikistan                     -3.1   -3.1    -3.1     -3.1    -3.1     -3.1    -3 I    -3 1    -3.1    -3.1    -3.1    -3.1    -3.1    -3.1    -3.1    -6 3    -17 3   -34.7   -25 0   -16.2   -9.4    -6.6    -3.9    -2.8     -16.9   -4.4

Yemen, Rep. of                 -6.1   -5.2    -1.7     -10.9   -18.4   -34.3    -28.5   -37.2   -32.8   -29 I   -26.6   -22.8   -30.3   -27.4   -30.6   -29.3   -16.9   -23 0   -20 2   -19.3   -9.6    -8 4    -3 0    -2.5     -16.4   -4.6                U

Average                        -6.8   -6.3    -5.2     -7.2    -9.2    -12.7    -10.7   -16.0   -14 9   -15.6   -12.8   -10.3   -11.3   -13.6   -11.9   -11.2   -9.7    -14.3   -12.5   -9.8    -57     -4 5    -3 3    -3.0     -9 3    -3.6                4

Non-SSA, nan-adjusting countries
Afghanistan                    -4 9   -49     -4.9     -2.2    -5.8     -2 3    -2.2    -6.5    -6.3    -4.6    -4.3    -7 0    -12.8   -25.6   -12.1   -7.5    -7.3    -6.4    -4.2    -3.4    -3.4    -3.1    -2 8    -2 5     -3 6    -2.8

Albania                         .       ..     .                 ...                     0.1    -3.9    -4.5    -2.1    -01I    -1 7    -1.2    -8.6    -15.4   -30.7   -21.5   -9.1    -7.0    -6.7    -10.7   -11.7   -6.8     -7.6    -9 7

Bangladesh                     -6.2   -9 7    -7 8     -7.2    -9.8    -10 5    -9.2    -9.9    -9.7    -7.9    -7.2    -7.7    -7.4    -6.9    -7.2    -6.9    -5.6    -5.0    -5.4    -6.0    -5 7    -5.1    -5.4    -5.8     -5 7    -5.3

Bhutan                         -4.3   -4.3    -4.3     -4.3    -4.3     -3.7    -3.9    -1.5     18     -9.9    -4.1     0.9    -5.7    -12 1   -768     3 1    -4.5     49     -0.6    -0 3     0.6    -4 7    -11.3   -14.4    -0.1I   -10.1

Guyana                         -2.9   -16.6   -7.2     -6.1    -9.3    -11.6    -14.7   -15.4   -20.7   -22.3   -28.2   -27.4   -27.3   -18.6   -31.7   -33.4   -20.5   -lOS5    -7.6   -3.8    -5.8    -5 0    -11.7   -6 5     -5.7    -7.7

Haiti                          1.1     16      10       10      1.1     0.0     -2.6     01     -6.5    -3 2    -2 1    -0.7    -1 0    -0.4    -0 7    -2 5    -1.0    -2.6    -4.2    -4 1    -2.1    -2 1    0.2     -0 9     -3.5    -0.9

Kiribati                        .                  .     ..    11.2     9.9     -1.4    -33.4   -42.1   -37.6   -30.8   -555    -30.    -26.5   18.1    19 8    31.8    34.1    43.3    24.8    13.3    -7.2     1.2     7.5     27 1     0.5

Maldives                       -7.6   -7.6    -7.6     -7.6    -10.8   -27.4    -7.6    -5.2    -17.0   -6.2    -4 I    -6.4     3.0     3.5    -3.2    -12.4   -14.1   -18.8   -I7.5   -7.5    -9.6    -1.6    -1.5    -0.1     -11.5   -1.1

Myanmar                        -3.2   -0.6    07        2.7     19      -0.6     1.2    -0.3    0.4     -0 4    0.3      1.2    -3.5    -5.1    -4.8    -7.3    -6.9    -4.9    -3.8    -4.2    -5.2    -489    -4.3    -3.8     -4.4    -4.3

Nepal                          -3.1   -5.2    -5.8     -5.4    -5.2     -5.0    -5.4    -9.0    -8.0    -7.3    -3.9    -3 7    -4 4    -5.7    -5.0    -4 6    -5.5    -6.0    -4 9    -3.3    -4.7    -4.5    -5.2    -4.8     -4 3    -4.8

Nicaragua                      -5.6   -3.8    -6.3     -5.6    -6.8     -7.5    -12.0     ..      .       .      .        .       .     -27.4   -6.9    -4.6    -7.5    -7.7    -7.3    -8.3    -6.6    -6.4    -6.1    -5.9     -7 4    -6.1

Suraa                                 -11.3   -7.4     -15.1   -14.2   -16.6    -18.5   -16 7   -44     -9 5    -3.6    -0.1I   -5 4     92     2.3     -4 8    -10.2   -19 3   -16 9   -105    -3.4    0.2     1.3      1.0     -10.2    0.8

Solomon Islands                12      0.0     1.9     -0.2    -2.2     -2.4    -7.7    -5.4    -6 6    -15.0   -17 9   -20.7   -40.9   -29.4   -28.5   -29.6   -13.2   -7.2    -7.8    -6.7    -4 5    -0 3    -0.7    -0 6     -6.3    -0 5

Sri Lanka                    -10.0    -12.5   -9.9     -12.1   -11.9   -18 2    -12.4   -14.0   -10.6   -6.8    -9.8    -10 1   -8.7    -12 7   -8.6    -7.8    -9.8    -6.1    -7 1    -9.1    -8.7    -9.2    -5.9    -4.5     -8.3    -6.6

Tonga                          -2.8   -2.8    -2.8     -2.8    -2 8     -298    -2.6     0.8     1.3    -4.5    -0.9     6.8    -6.1    -046     0.7    -7.6    -9.1    -6 5     20      4.8    -0.7    -1.0    -3.1    -3.3      2.0    -2.5

Vanuatu                        4.2    42      4.2      4.2     4.2      42       6.5    -3.5    -06      38     -0 9    -5 7     9.0    -1.7    -4 8    -8 5    -1.5    -3.4    -1.3    -3.0    -1.6    -2.2    -1.7    -1L6     -2 0    -189

Vietnam                        -5.1   -5.1    -5.1     -5. 1   -6 2     -5.6    -6 2    -11.2   -6.3    -3.9    -4.4    -5 9    -52     -99     -10 8   -8 0    -4 4    -43     -6.3    -2.6    -1.8    -1.2    -2.8    -1.7     -3 6    -1.9

Average                        -3.5   -5.2    -4.1     -4.3    -4.4     -6.3    -6.2    -8.2    -8.7    -8.7    -7.8    -8.9    -9.3    -10.1   -7.0    -8.1    -7.1    -5.4    -3.4    -2 9    -3.3    -4.1    -4.2    -3.2     -3.2    -3.8

Avg.non-SSAcountries -4.4             -5.5    -4.      -5.0 -5.6        -7.8    -7.3    -10.0 -10.2 -10.4       -9.0    -9.2    -9.8 -10.9 -8.1         -8.8    -7.7    -7.4    -55     -4.5    -3.9 -4.1 -4.0 -3.2 -4.6 -3.8

Avg.all
      countires                -4.4   -4.8 -4.2        -5.4 -6 1        -5.5    -5.3    -9.1    -9.5    -8.0    -7.0    -8.1    -8.8    -8.8    -8.0    -7.3    -7.3    -8.0    -7.1    -6.2    -53     -4.8 -43        -3.5 -6.2 -4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2


                    Monetary Fund InternationalFinancial Statisties (IMFIFS).
Source, Intemnational
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Annex Table 3.2 (I of 2)

Annex Table 3.2: Annual Inflation Rate on Consumer Price Index (percent), 1975-98
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Period Average

Country Gnoup                  1975   1976   1977    1978   1979    1980 1981          198Z       1983    1994   19S5    1986    1987    1988    1989    1990    1991   1992    1993    1994   1995   1996   1997   199S     93-95     96-98
FY 96-97 HIAL, CFA countries
Cameroon                       13.6   9.9    14.7    14.8   9.0     7.7        7.5         15.3   20.5    12.1    4.2    4.3      2.8     1.7    1.6      1.5    -0.6    1.9    -3.7    12.7   30,9   6.4    4.3    2.1       13.3      4.3
Chad                           15.7   3.3     8.4    9.9    8.2     8.7        8.1         6.4     7.9    203     51     -13.1   -2.7    14.9    -4.9    0.5     4.2    -3.8    -7.0    41.3   9.5    11.3   6.7    3.5       146       7.2
Coted'lvoire                   11.4   12.1   27.4    13.0   29.4    8.8        8.7         7.4     5.9    4.3     1.8    6,8      7.0     6.9     1.0    -0.7    1.6     4.2    2.1     26.0   14.3   2.7    5.6    3.0       14.1      3.8
Mali                           5.8    8.0    22.1    30.8   -0.9    20.3       3.9         3.9     6.2    4.0    10.8    -14     -14.9    9.0    .0.2     1.6    1.5    -5.9    -0.6    24.8   12.4   6.4    -0.4   2.5       12.2      2.8
Niger                          9.1    23.5   23.3    10.1   9.9     7.3        24.3        10.4    1.6    8.4    -1.1    -3.2    -6.6     0.6    -0.8    -2.0    -1.9   -1.7    -0.4    35.6   10.9   5.3    2.9    3.0       15.4      3.7
Average                        11.1   1i.4   19.2    15.7   11.1    10.5       10.5        81      9A4    9.9     4.2    -1.3    -2.9     6.6    -0.7    0.2     1.0    -1.1    -1,9    28.1   15.6   6.4    3.8    2.9       13.9      4.4
FY 96-97 HIAL, non-CFA countries
Kenya                          19.2   11.5   15.0    17.1   8.1     13.9       7.9         13.8   11.6    20.7   11.4    10.3    13.0     4.8    7.6     11.2    19.6   27.3    45.9    28.8    1.5   9.0    11.2   9.6       25.4      9.9
Madagascaw                     8.2    5.0     3.1    6.6    14.0    18.3       30.5    31.9       19.5    9.7    10.6    14.5    15.5    263     9.0     11.8    8.5    15.3    9.2     391    490    19.8   6.7    6.0       32.4      10.8
Malawi                         15.5   4.3     4.1    10.7   13.1    19.2       12.0        9.5    13.8    19.7   10.6    14.2    25.1    33.8    12.5    11.9    8.2    23.2    22.8    34.7   83.1   37.7   9.1    15.6      46.9      20.9
Mauritania                     16.6   6.6     5.8    2.4    12.4    5.9        6.9         9.8     6.1    13.5   10.3    7.8      8.2     6.3    9.0     6.4     5.6    10.1    9.3     4.1     6.5   3.0    3.0    3.0       6.6       3.0
Mozambique                     2.0    2.0     2.0    2.0    2.0     2.0        4.2         17.7   28.2    30.0   30.8    40.5    164.1   58.5    42.1    43.7    33.3   45.1    42.3    63.1   54.4   44.6   6.9    8.2       53.3      19.9
Tanzania                       26.5   6.9    11.6    11.5   13.8    30.2       30.3    25.7       28.9    27.1   36.1    33.3    32.4    30.0    31.2    30.4    31.7   24.8    23.8    30.2   34.0   25.7   17.1   13.0      29.3      18.6
Uganda                         74.9   74.9   74.9    49.4   95.0    99.2       100.0   100.0      150.0   167    100.0   143.8   215.4   166.7   130.8   45.4    32.9   42.2    30.0    6.5    6.1    7.5    7.8    7.8       14.2      7.7
Zambia                         10.1   18.8   19.8    16.4   9.7     11.7       14.0        12.5   19.7    20.0   37.4    54.8    47.0    54.0    128.3   109.6   97.7   165.7   183.3   54.6   34.9   43 1   24.4   13.2      90.9      26.9
Average                        21.6   16.2   17.0    14.5   21.0    25.0       25.7    27.6       34.7    19.7   30.9    39.9    65.1    47.6    46.3    33.8    29.7   44.2    45.8    32.6   33.7   23.8   10.8   9.6       37.4      14.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 UI1
Avg. all HIAL countries        17.6   14.4   17.9    15.0   172     19.5       19.9    20.3       24.6    15.9   20.6    24.0    38.9    31.8    28.2    20.9    18.6   26.8    27.5    30.9   26.7   17.1   8.1    7.0       28.4      10.7     0
Non-HIAL SSA eountries
Angola                         29.0   80.7 69.0      48.5   101.3 46.7          1.8        1.8     1.9     L.     1.8     1.8     1.9     1.8     1.9     I.S
                                                                                                                                                          1.8              ,     .              ...    ...    ...     -
Bmin                       -34.4      8.3     9.9    6.8    10.3    10.9       0.8         4.1    -6.1    103     1.2    0.4     -1.3     3.4    -0.2     1.1    2.1     5.9    0.5     38.6   14.9   4.7    3.3    3.0       18.0      3.7
Botswana                       13.5   11.7   13.2    9.0    11.6    12.5       29.5        11.0   10.5    8.5     8.1    10.0     9.8     8.4    11.6    1.1.4   11.8   16.2    14.3    10.5   10.5   10.1   8.8    6.8       11.8      8.6
BurkinaFaso                    18.8   -8.4   30.0    8.0    15.2    12.1       7.6         12.1    8.3    4.8     6.9    -2.6    -2.7     4.3    -0.5    -0.5    2.2    -2.0     1.0    24.7    78    6.1    2.0    3.0       11.2      3.7
Burundi                        15.8   6.8     6.9    23.4   25.3     1.2       12.2        5.9     8.2    14.3    3.8     1.7     7.1     4.5    11.7     7.0    9.0     4.5    9.7     14.7   19.4   26.4   25.8   15.8      14.6      22.7
Cape Verde                     40.8   8.2    11.2    13.3   6.9     15.1       20.6    21.1       20.3    14.1    9.4    8.0      76      5.0    53      10.6    8.0     7.0    5.9     3.4     8.4   5.9    8.9    3.0       5.9       5.9
Central African Rep            13.3   13.3   13.3    13.3   13.3    13.3       14.7        13.2   14.6    2.6    10.5    2.4     -7.0    -39     0.6     -0.2    -2.8   -0.8    -2.9    24.5   19.2   4.4    0.6    2.6       13.6      2.5
Comoros                        29.7   9.6     9.4    9.1    10.7    13.3       6.5         15.2    9.2    6.0     8.4    -11.3    3.3     0.3    4.4     -7.4    1.7    -1.4    2.0     25.3    7.1   1.4    2.5    3.0       11.5      2.3
Congo                          17.3   7.2    14.5    10.1   8.1     7.3         8.1    20.2        7.8    12.6    6.1    2.5     -1.0     4.4    4.0      2.6    -1.6   -3.9    4.9     42.9    8.6   10.2   8.6    -0.4      18.8      6.1
Congo, Dem. Rep                29.0   80.7   69.0    48.5   101.3   46.7       34.9    37.1       76.7    52.6   23.5    46.7    90.4    82.7    104.1   81.3      -     ...     ...     ...    ...    ...    ...
Djibouti                       9.4    19.7   30.9    14.2   10.6    11.7       5.7         -2.3    0.8     1.7    3.4    16.4     4.2     6.4    3.0      7.8    6.8     3.4    4.4     6.5     4.9   4.0    3.0    30        5.3       3.3
Equatorial Guinea              12.7   15.4   12.0    9.4    12.2    0.0        16.7    38.3       60.1    59.5   63.7    -15.7   -9.0    -3.4    7.2     0.7     0.9     1.0     1.6    38.9   11.4   4.5    3.0    3.0       17.3      3.5
Eritrea                   ..                  ..      ...     .            .           .           .       ...                            ...             ...     ..-    ...    4.6     11.6   10.7   9.3    3.2    3.0       9.0       5.2
Ethiopia                       6.7    28.8   16.9    18.8   13.2    12.4       12.7        7.8     3.6    -0.3   18.4    5.6     -9.1     2.2    9.6      5.2    20.8   23.0    10.1     1.2   13.4   0.9    -6.4   4.7       8.2       -03
Gabon                      28.3       20.2   13.9    10.7   8.1     12.3       8.6         16.7   10.4    5.9     7.3    6.4     -1.0    -9.8    6.6     5.7     3.3    -10.8   0.6     36.1   10.0   4.5    2.5    2.0       15.6      3.0
Gambia, The                25.9       17.1   12.4    10.2   7.5     5.0        7.9         8.2     9.3    15.6   21.8    35.0    46.2    12.4    10.8    10.2    9.1    12.0    5.9     4.0    4.0    4.8    2.1    3.2       4.6       3.4
Ghana                      29.8       55.4   116.5   73.1   54.5    50.2       117.9   21.3       12.0    40.0   10.0    24.8    19.7    31.4    25.3    37.2    18.0   10.1    24.9    24.9   59.5   45.6   28.3   188.      36.4      30.9
Guinea                         4.8    6.2     4.6    6.7    11.2    40.0       35.0    29.9       303     26.0   19.0    64.7    36.7    27.4    28.3    19.4    19.6   16.6    7.1     4.2    5.6    3.0    1.9    4.0       5.6       3.0
Guinea-Bissau                  19.8   1.6     3.0    -4.4   26.0    64.8       41.9        16.5   23.3    64.9   1127    26.5    119.6   60.3    80.8    33.0    57.6   69.4    49.2    15.2   45.4   50.7   49.1   8.6       36.3      36.2
Lesotho                        14.2   11.4   16.7    12.4   19.9    13.1       12.5        19.2    9.9    12.3   19.1    13.0     8.8    19.4    14.7    11.6    17.7   17.2    13.1    8.2    9.3    9.3    8.4    8.4       10.2      8.7
Liberia                        14.0   5.6     6.2    7.3    11.6    14.6       7.7         5.9     2.8     1.2   -0.6    3.6      5.0    97      25.3    10.0    10.0   10.0    10.0    10.0   10.0   10.0   10.0   10.0      10.0      10.0
Mauritius                      14.8   12.9    9.6    10.0   7.9     33.0       26.4        13.4    7.5    5.5     8.3    4.3      0.7     1.5    16.0    10.7    12.8    2.9    8.9     9.4    6.1    5.8    9.0    6.0       8.1       6.9
Namibia                        11.2   11.1   10.2    13.1   13.8    13.8       14.8        15.5   12.0    9.1    11.9    134     12.6    12.5    15.5    12.0    11.9   17.7    8.5     10.8   10.0   8.0    10.2   9.5       9.8       9.2
Nigeria                        33.9   24.3   13.8    21.7   11.7    10.0       20.8        7.7    23.2    39.6    5.5    5.4     10.2    34.5    50.5    7.4     13.0   44.6    57.2    57.0   70.0   29.3   8.3    9.0       61.4      15.3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Annex Table 3 2 (2 of 2)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Average
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Pesiod

                                 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980                                 1981 1982           1983     1984      1985     1986    1987     1988     1989    1990    1991     1992     1993    1994    1995    1996    1997 1998      93-95     96-98
      Group
Country
                                                       13.7 133         15.6 7.2               6.4         12.6     6.6      54        1.7     -1.1     4.1     2.9      1.0     4.2     19.6     9.5      12.4    64.0    22.0     8.9    11.8   7.0     32.8       9.0
Rwanda                           30.2 7.2
                                 29.7 10.9 7.4                10.3 3.5           0.2           11.5        04       7.0      3.2      0.1      13.9    25.0     44.3     42.9    42.2    46.5    33.7     25.5     26.6    36.8    35.5    45.3   32.0    29.6       37.6
       &Principe
SaoTonme
                                 31.7            1.1 113      3.5       9.6          8.7       58          17.4    11.7      11.7     13.0      6.1    -4.1     -1.8     0.4      0.3    -1.8     -0.
                                                                                                                                                                                                    1      -0.6    32.1     8.5     2.8    18     2.4      13.3      2.3
Senegal
                                 18.5 14.9 14.9 11.7 12.6 13.5 10.5 -0.9                                            6.0      41       0.8       0.3     2.6     1.8      1.3      3.9     2.0     3.2      1.3      1.8     02     -1.0    1.0    1.2      1.1       0.4
Seychelles
                                 19.9 17.2 8.3                10.9 21.4 12.9 234                           26.9    68.5     66.6      766      80.9    178.7 34.3        60.8    110.9 102.7     65.5      17.6    18.4    29.8    23.1    4.0    6.4     21.9       11.2
    Leone
Sierra
                                        1              10.6 10.2 237             59.0 44.6                 22.6    36.4      923      378      35.7    28.1     81.7    110.4 216.8       17.7    36.3     24.3    18.9    16.3     16.3   16.3 16.3       19.8      163
Somalia                          19.4 14.
                                 112            11.1 10.2 13.1 13.8 13.8 15.4 15.1                                  12.1     11.3     166       18.4    16.1    12.9     14.8    14.4     15.2    13.9     9.7      9.0     8.6     7.4    8.6    60       9.1       7.3
    Africa
South
                                 24.0            17    17.1   20.0      33.6     26.5          24.0        26.6    306       33.7     45.6     60.0    62.0     82.0     43.0    145.0 104.0     103.0    118.0    57.0    71.0    114.0 32.0     15.0    82.0       53.7
Sudan
                                 13.3           47     20 8   8.9       146      18.2          13.7         75     13.6      ISO0     20.0      13.2    13.3    14.0     6.3      11.0    11.0    8.2      11.2    13.8     12.3    11.2   11.0   80       12.4      10.1
Swaziland
                                 189.0 11.6            22.5    1.4      7.5      123           19 7        11.1     9.4      -3.5     -1.8      4.1     0.1     -0.2     -1.2     1.1     02      1.6      -0. 1   35.3     15.8    46     8.2    3.4      17.0       5.4
Togo
                                 10.0           11.0   10.3   8.2       12.6     72            13.2        10.4    23.2     20.3      8.3       14.5    12.5    7.4      12.8    17.4    23.3    42.1      27.6    22.3    22.6    21.4    19.5   15.2    24.2       187
Zimbabwe
                                 184            16.3   194    148       20 1     188           1927        144     20.4      19.7     17.6      15.0   20.9     17.5     21 4    24 9    17.9     17.5     14.8    21.9    18.5    15.3    10.7   7.4      18.4      1II
Average
                 countries
No.-SSA, adjusting
                                 7.8            4.6    8.0    10.5      19.9     47.0          32.1        123.7   275.5    1281.3   11749.6   276.3    14.6    16.0     15.2    17.1    21.4     12.1     6.3      7.9    10.2     12.4   4.7    7.9      8.9        8.3
Bolivia
Cambodia                         6.3            09     14.7   9.4       12.2         1.2       9.9          I8      6.4      5.8      4.8       50      0.0     00       55.3    141.8   197.0    75.0    114.5    -0.5     7.7     7.2    65     6.0     40.6       6.6

                                 8.4            47     6.5    5.9       12.0     18.2          9.4          8.9     8.3      47        3.4      39      2.8     6.6      7.0     21.2    26.0     9.1      10.7    22.5     18.5    8.3    5.0    5.0      17.2      6.1
Honduras
                                 29.7           10.9   90.0   10.0      2.7      188.8         33.7        70.4    62 5      27 2     114.7    35.0     6.1     14.8     59.7    35.7     13.4    9.8      6.3      68     25.7     7.5    45     4.5      12.9       5.5
Lao PDR
Mongolia                             ..          ..-                                            01         2.5      0.0      0.6      -1.0      ..       ..      ...     ...             20 2    202.6    268.4    876     56.8    49.3    36 9   11.7      -

                                                0.7    07     0.7       0.7      07            11           1.1     1.1      1.1       1.1      2.0     1.3     0.6      2.0      56     111.6   1156.7   2194.9   350.4   610 0   418.0   68.0   64.0     ...        ...
Tajikistla..
                                 20.7           13.3   200    13.2      152          9.2       4.7          55      7.5      9.0      68.6      13.6    11.4    7.6      138     33.5    44 9     506      62.5    71.6    62.5    27 3    6.3    11.0     65.5      14.9
Yemen, Rep.of
                                 108            59     1208   908       148      18.9          14.0        35.0    74.4     325.2    2956.6    74.7     7.2      7.5     22 8    534     72.3     36.7     49.0    25 4    24.7     13.8   5.6    7.5     29.0        83
Average
Non-SSA. non-adjuntingcnuntries
                                 11.9           0.6    7.7    -2 2      99       12.6          21.5        16.5     19.6     27.4      9.7      -8 7    182     29.2     89.8    1378    1660     58.2     34.0    20.0     14.0    140    14.0   140      22.7      140
Afghanistan
                       ...                                                  .
                                                                         ....    .              ..    ..     -                                                             ..     ...    35.8    225.2     65.0    22.6     7.8     12.7   32 1   21 5    38.5       22.1
Albania        .
                                 16.6           -2.4   9.3    174       13.6     153           14.5        129      9.6      104      10.3      1I1     tO9     9.6      8.7      6.0     6.3     35       3.1      6.3     7.7     45     5.1    7.5      5.7        57
Bangladesh
                                 0.0            0.0    0.0    -15.9     60       125           6.3         110      18.1I    S.1       2.9      99      7.9     9.6      6.5      9.4     13.3    16.0      89      8.A     107     70     70      7.0     9.3        7.0
 Bhutan
                                                9.0    8.3    15.1      17.9     14.1          222         20 6     1531     23 1     15 0      7.9     28.7    39.9     89.7    636     101.5    28 2     117      136     123     7.1    3.6    41       12.5       4.9
Guyana                           7.6
                                                7.0    6.5    -2.9      97       180           01          8.5      008      8.1      6.3       6.3     -5.0     29      11.0    20.4     190     213      188     37.4    30.2    21 9    8.9    3.7      26.8      12.1
Haiti                            16.8
                                 7.5            7.5    7.5    75        7.5      16.1          77          55       6.3      5.4      45        6.6     6.3     3.1      5.3      38      57      40        6.1     52      36      -0.6   40     3.0      5.0        2.1
Kiribati
                                 0.0            31.4   -0.8   139       20 0     27.9          11 1        -8.8     9.9      1.0      -9.2      9.1     11.7    6.5      7.2      3.6     147     16 8     20.1     34      5.5     62     7.2    3.0      9.7        6.1
Maldives
                                 31.6           22.4   -1.1   -4.0      57       -0 1          1.4         52       509      5.2      63        14.7    17.6    24.0     23.8    21.9    2Q.
                                                                                                                                                                                           1      22.3     33.6    22 4    28.9    20.0    10.0   10.0     28.3      13.3
Myarnmar
                                 7.6            -3.1   9.9    127       36       10 9          155         104     -10.9     4.1      15.9      13.3    11.1    63       115      98     21.0     8.9      89       7.6     8.1     9.0    7.5     7.0     8.2        7.8
Nepal
                             .   .         ..                                .             .100.0                                    200.0     633.3   915.9   143128   4709.3   312735 7755.3    405      20 4     7.7     11.2    6.8    5.7     5.0     13.1       58
Nicaragua          .
                                 8.6            4.9    14.6   2.      1 II       33.0          20.5        103      16.5     11.9     9.2       5.7     4.6      8.5     64      15.2     85      1.7      164      1.0     7.0     3.5    35      35      8.6        35
Samoa
                                 101            43     66     12.1      77           62        13.1        13.0     70       10.9     9.4       131     11.5    16 8     149      06      to08    9.2      10.4     171     9.8     7.2    50      30      12 4       SI
SolomionIslands
                                 6.2             1.2   1.2    69        10.8     26 1          160         10.6     14.0     16 6      1.5      8.0     7.7     140      116     215      122     11 4     11.7     6.4     7.7     15.9   97      50      93        10 2
StiLanka
                                                       17.5   96        535      -73           149         109      97       79       5.2      29.0     7.7     103      40       56      135     87        3.1     2.4     0.3     2.8     1.8    25      1.9        24
Tonga                                . .        11.7
                                 7.0            0.3    4.7    6.7       3.4      99            22 0        90       3.5      6.8      2.0       4.8     14.7    84       75       SO      56      41       36       2.3     2.2     0.9    25     25       2.7        2.0
Vanuatu
                                 5.0            5.0    5.0    4.1       40       25 2          69 6        95.4    49.3     64.9      91.6     487.2   316.7   394 0     35 0    670     84.4    37 8       8.3     904    17.0     5.7    31     70       11.6       53
Vietnam
                                 9.8            66     6.6    5.7       91       14.8          1768        165     12.2      19.6     23.9     78.3    86.6    931.0    315.3    221 7   488.4    30.5     10.0     11.5    10.8    6.5    7.7    67       13 4       76
Average
                                 11.1           6.4    11.5   6.4       9.5      23.2          16.2        21.0O   24.7     71.3     535.6     72.2    64.7    679.2    236.2    172.8   364 1   84.7     123.8    30.9    40.6    28.1    11.8   9.3      17.0       7.8
Avg. non-SSAcountries
                                 16.1 12.9 16.7 12.3 16.3 20.3                                 18.4 17.6           22.6     36.0      188.4    34.9    38.3    231.2     91.2    71.3    138.4    42.6     54.5    26.6    27.6    20.0    10.6    8.0     19.8       9.9
Avg. all countries


Soance. IMFIFS.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Annex Table 3.3 (1 of 2)




Annex Table 3.3: Real Effective Exchange Rate (1990=100), 1975-98

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Average
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Period
      Group
Countay              1975        1976     1977          1978        1979      1980    1981        1982    1983      1984    1985    1986    1987          1988    1989 1990 1991            1992    1993    1994    1995     1996    1997    1998 93-95 96-98
       HlAI,CFA counntries
FY 96-97
Camseroon                 ..       ....                             90.0      88.2    80.9        79.2    82.2      83.4    87.1    96.5    108.1 185.1 97.1              100       95.7    96.3    89.6    57.5    66.3     67.3    64.3     ...      71.1 65.8
Chad                      . .     ..          ..         ..         127.7 147.4 128.4 115.3 116.9 131.5 132.6 109.8 101.7 108.2 98.5                                      108       100.4 99.1      89.1    59.9    64.3     68.8    67.9     ...      71.1 68.4
Cote
   dIvoire           83.6        81.3     89.5          93.8        184.8 106.1 91.0              82.9    79.8      76.4    76.3    91.8    102.1 104.8 98.5              100       96.5 100.7 99.0         60.8    70.1     78.4    69.3    74.4      76.6      71.4
Mali                      ..       .           .           .I       122.8     127.8   124.6       114.2   114.0     116.9   121.5   119.0   98.1          102.2   97.8    100       96.3    90.8    88.7    55.0    61.9     64.1    60.3     ...      68.5     62.2
Niger                      -      ..          ..         ..           -       161.4   169.0       166.4   145.0     143.4   135.4   127.4   115.7         109.1   101.3   100       87.5    84.7    82.6    54.9    60.9     63.1    62.4     ...      66.1     62.8
Average              83.6        81.3     89.5          93.8        111.1     126.2   118.8       111.6   107.6     110.3   110.6   108.9   105.2         105.7   98.6    100       95.3    94.3    89.8    57.6    64.7     66.8    64.8    74.4      70.7     66.1
FY 96-97   non-CPAcountries
       MIAL,
Kenya                159.3       154.1    159.6         168.2       143.9     142.5   137.5       142.9   135.3     145.0   142.9   124.8   115.5         110.5   108.8   100       98.1    102.6   89.3    112.1   111.0    108.8   125.0    ...      104.1 116.9
Madagascar                 .      ..          ..           .        183.4 193.6 204.9             216.2 218.0 l868          177.3 167.5 114.2 100.2 95.7                  100       87.0 91.4       100.9 88.7      80.2     102.2 91.8       ..       89.9      97.0
Maia,vi              105.6       104.2    99.2          102.5       94.2      110.6   110.4       106.3   108.1     106.8   106.9   96.0    89.3          94.9 100.6 100            103.5 95.2      97.0    68.6    59.6     82.3    91.8     ..       75.1      87.1
Mautitania           140.7       144.6    144.1         130.7       134.8     121.0   140.1       152.2   150.2     141.8   132.6   120,6   114.1         105.0   102.9   100       101.2   190.8   81.3    79.4    72.6     72.5    74.1     ...      77.8      73.3
Mozatnbique         ...            -                                          125.7   122.6 141.7 170.7 226.7 312.6 384.2 149.9 96.5                              99.7    100       84.7 65.2       63.5    61.4    58.7     67.4    73.4     ...      61.2      70.4
Tanzania            284.5        263.3    267.1         270.3       253.9     240.0   311.3       368.6   411.9     423.8   491.9   340.5   167.6         132.0   115.5   tOO       98.8    86.7    93.8    93.5    97.6     118.3 136.4      ...      95.0 127.4
Uganda                     -       ..         ..         ..           ..      921.4   652.2       226.5   178.0     120.3   157.0   165.4   211.8         191.3   162.5   100       73.7    68.2    72.6    89.9    87.9     87.8    94.1    82.2      83.5      88.0
Zuabia              217.2        250.1    225.3         229.0       170.3     132.7   135.7       151.2   140.2     120.5 136.6 57.3        62.6          94.7 120.9 100            95.2    89.3    101.4 97.5      93.4     97.7    117.0 105.0 97.4 106.6
Average              181.5       179.2    179.0         180.1       163.4     248.4   226.8       188.2   189.0     183.9   204.7   182.0   128.1         115.6   113.3   100       92.5    87.4    87.5    86.4    82.6     92.1    100.5   93.6      85.5      95.8
Avg.all tEAL countr 165.2        162.9       1
                                          164.          165.7       142.5     201.4   185.3       158.7   157.7     155.6   168.5   153.9 119.3 111.8 107.7               100       93.6    90.1    88.4    75.3    75.7     82.4    86.8    87.2      79.8      84.4
Non-HIAL SSA countires
Angola                                                                                                     .                         ...     ..........                   .     .      -    175.7   247.5   168.1   108.0    124.7   179.3    ...      171.9    152.0
Beain                     ..                                         ..         ..      ..                                  99.6    100.6 100.1 108.4 98.0                100       96.3 102.4 99.5         67.2    77.4     79.4    77.9     ...1     81.4      78.6
Botswmna                  ....                           ..           ..      112.0   117.2       111.6   107.4     111.4   99.9    98.4    97.5          95.1    95.8    100       104.8   111.0   118.0   116.8   112.7    101.4   102.9    ...      115.8    1012.
Burkina Faso                      ..           ..          ..         ..      132.5   120.1       117.4   113.4     108.5   110.7   108.7   104.3         104.7   100.1   100       97.5    95.9    94.2    57.6    62.1     63.9    62.1     ...      71.3      63.0
Burundi                                       ..           ..       139.3     128.3   154.7       170.4   183.8     170.3   173.9   149.4   128.0         112.5   113.9   100       102.7   87.0    86.6    92.8    98.0     i00.5   119.5   108.9     92.5     109.6
Cape Verde                        ..          ..           ..         ..      87.5    92.0        97.2    101.5     101.6   101.0   98.1    100.4         99.4    96.0    tOO       104.1   109.0   102.0   99.2    101.1    100.4   103.9    ...      100.8    102.1
Central Afr. Rep.    98.9        99.3     99.0          103.6       101.4     119.0   114.7       112.9   115.6     108.7   115.9   121.6   112.4         103.7   99.3    1OO       92.9    91.2    85.4    53.4    62.9     64.4    62.1    62.0      67.3      62.8
Comorost..                                .                     .         .     -     ..           ...      ...      ...    90.4    105.5   113.3         108.6   106.4   100       93.6    96.3    97.3     ..       .I      ...     ..      ..        ..        ..
Congo                102.4       98.6     101.1         102.0       106.9     103.5   103.9       103.0   99.3      102.7   103.7   105,4   105.1         105.4   105.3   tOO       103.3   105.0   104.1   81.6    93.9     102.7   105.9    ...      93.2     104.3
Congo, Dem. Re      234.1        275.2    368.3         491.0       409.6     381.4   352.9       372.0   435.0     149.9   135.4   135.5   116.4         121.3   120.3   100       96.9    94.5    125.1   90.9    83.3     82.9    101.7   105.0     99.8      96.6


Equatorial Guinea    .....                                                                          ..         ..    ...    146.9 123.9 107.2 102.2 100.0 tOO                       92.1    88.3    93.0    70.8    75.6     79.4    82.0    93.3      79.8      84.9


Ethiopia                                      ..           ..         ..      99.4    108.5       117.7   119.3     134.3   159.9   118.6   101.1         101.4   108.6   100       132.5   116.4   59.6    52.5    52.0     48.8    49.5     ...      54.7      49.1
Gabon                                         ..           ..       103.9     113.4   100.7       101.7   99.9      95.3    98.3    107.1 105.4 90.8 92.0                 100       84.5 76.3       73.9    49.7    54.8     54.3    53.5    55.8      59.5      54.5
Gamsbia,The          74.1        70.4     69.3          70.4        100.0     133.7   127.9       128.6   129.4     122.5   131.3   94.4    99.7          108.6   104.5   100       95.7    97.7    105.6   97.8    94.7     93.9    98.1    93.9      99.3      95.3
Ghana                179.1 272.1 527.9 593.0 440.1 480.6 1069.5 1337.5 899.8 347.1 250.8 144.3 1l1.2 106.5 100.2 tOO                                                                102.2 90.2      79.0    63.3    72.8     79.4    84.4    89.7      71.7      84.5
Gainea                             ....       ..    .    ...         ..        ..       ...        ...      ...      ...     ...    95.3    93.8          104.4   106.6   tOO       103.4   95.4    99.3    96.5    91.0     93.2    92.5     ...      95.6      92.9
Guinea-Bissau                                            ...         ...        ...        ...     ...     ...-..
                                                                                                            ..       ..      --       -     143.3         98.0    107.6   100       91.2    74.3    80.7    71.8    66.3     69.6    78.2     ...      72.9      73.9
Lesotho                   ..                                                  112.0   109.7       107.6   112.4     111.5   107.9   106.2   102.8         101.6   101.9   100       106.9   115.4   114.6   109.1   109.1t   99.4    102.7    ...      110.9    101.1
L iberia                  . .     . ..                                                        .    . .      . .      . .     . .     . .     . .           . .     . .    I.         . .     .I       .       .       .        .       .           .     .         .
Mauritius                 ..       ..                                         119.8 124.2 118.3 118.7 114.9 111.6 107.8 97.8                              97.0 97.5       100       99.5    96.8    97.4    98.4    96.5     92.8    100.4    ...      97.4      96.6
Nannibia                  ..      ..          ..           ..         -       123.6 127.2         127.4 135.1 126.7 109.3 99.8              100.7 96.9 98.0               96        94.3    99.0    99.2    100.2 100.0 97.4         98.8     ...      99.8      98.1
Nigeria             308.3        373.3    370.0         378.3       329.2     350.7   388.8       399.1   471.5     649.5   689.4   376.3   120.2         120.5   107.6   tOO       85.0    70.4    77.0    142.4   120.5    149.2   171.3   207.2     113.3    175.9
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Annex Table 3.3 (2 of 2)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Average
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Period
                                                                                                          1982          1983          1984    1985         1986            1987    1988 1989 1990              1991        1992        1993        1994         1995      1996    1997    1998 93-95 96-98
      Group
Country              1975       1976         1977              1978             1979      1980    1981
                                                                                                          109.0 117.7 120.9 121.6                          111.0           110.7   111.7   109.5         100   76.0        73.3        80.3        643          84.7      79.7    95.7               76.4 87.7
Rwanda                0.0                    0.0               0.0              85.5      83.3    92.9
                                                                                                                         ...           ...     ...          ..             246.9 143.2 114.6             100   82.0        50.6        46.7        33.1         16.3      16 5    17.0    ..         32.0       16.8
               .
SaoToose&Principe                  .               .     .       .         ..         .    1       . .     ...

                                                                                                                        95.2          97.4    106.3 115.5 109.5 103.0 98.4                               100   93.7        93.8        90.4        58.7         63.6      641     61.7         .     70.9 62.9
Senegal              116.1 105.8 106.3 102.2 102.4 103.2 92.0                                             94.7
                                                                                                                        104.4         106.6   107.2        1056            105.9   107.3   1035          100   98.8        98.8        103.0       103.5       101.0      96.4    100.4    ..        102.5      98.4
Seychelles                                                      ..               ..       94.4    106.5   103.0
                                                                                                                                      260 1   230.3        169.2 131.0 154.8 134.9 100                         101.1 92.1              102.5 116.6 105.4                  106.1 122.8 102.5          108.2      110.5
    Leone
Sietra                0.0                    0.0               0.0              123.6     120.7   139.3   172.5         209.9
                                                               290.1 317.0 448.4 539.5 606.3 470.0 763.2                                      417.5        277.1           254.7   312.1   208.5 100 .                 .           .           .           ......
Somalia              267.7 302.2 3036
                                                                                                   1298                                       98.5         910             102.6   97.0    97.3          100   104.2       107.7       105.5       100.8        97.8      90 3    96.6    82.2       101.4      89.7
    Afiica
South                 ...          .         .                  ...   ...  134.1 141.0 133.6 147.1
                                                                                                                        37.9          47.8    44.8         427             38.0    43.4    67.0          100   177.6 28 I              28.7        33.0         25.1      26.8    33.0     ...       28.9       29.9
Sudan                 52.6      52.4         556               51.1             51.6      45.1    47.6    39.0
                                                                                                          122.3         124.7         121.7   114.8        108.3           111.4   107.8   101.2         100   96.8        92.6        94.3        98.2 101.5 99.1                98.3     ...       98.0 98.7
Swaziland             ....                                      ...              ...      124.9   131.9
                                                                                                                                      8067    102.1        110.1           109.4   103.7   96.5          100   95.0        96.5        93.1        61.9         71 7      73.6    75.8     ...       75.6       74.7
Togo                 128 7      119.9        127.5             118.3            117.4     126.6   125.2   120.2         119.6
                                                                                                                        156.1 161.5 143.1 131.~6 126.1 117.4 112.7 100                                         84.1        76.4        79.5        74.0         78.2      84.3    87.1     ---       77.2       85.7
Zimbabwe             188.2 189.0 187.6 162.8 160.3 153.4 163.8 1707
                                                                                                                                                                   100                                         99.6        93.5        95.6        84.1         82.3      83.8    90.5    100.0 87.3            87.8
Average              134.1 178.0 178.2 189.5 179.2 161.3 191.7 2077                                                     192.9 178.8 154.4 126.2 116.4 112.3 1066

Non-SSA, adjustitig countries
                                                                                                                                                                                                               104.5 102.4 100.5 93.3                           90.1      95.4    99.2    103.1 94.6            99.2
Bolivia               ....                                      ..                ..      163.4 205.7 223.1 205.3 266.2 456.4 134.5 129.7 123.0 118.2 100
                                                                                                                         ...           ...     ...          ......                                                         104 2       99.1        97.1         100.0     101.1   109.0         -.   98.7 105.0
Carmbodia                             ....                                                                 ...
                                                                                                                                                                                                               91.4        90.3        85.2        76.0         82.3      81.9    91.7     ...       81.2       86.8
Hoaduras              ...        ..              .....                                    126.2 137.5 149.5 160.6 168.9 175.9 165.9 156.6 155.7 166.1 100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ..
Lao 1'DR....                                                    ..               ....                      ....
                                                                                                                                       ..      ..           ..              ....                                             ..          ..        90.1  100.0 106.0 107.7                 ...       95.1 106.9
Mongolia              ...
                                                                                                                          .             .      ...          ...             ...                                                                    107.6 100.0 183.3 175.7                 ...       103.8 179.5
Tajikistan                                                      ..                                  .



                                                                                                                                                                           143.1   139.3   142.2         100   97.9        99.0        94.9        92.8         94 5      113.5   116.7   103.1      94.7       115.5                  r
Average                          ...          ...                                         144.8 171.6 186.3 183.0 217.6 316.1 150.2
                   countriees
       unon-adjusting
Nuss-SSA,
                                                                                                                                                                                                   ...                 .     .           ...                        ...                    ...        ..
                                                                                                                                                 .
                                                                                                                                               ...    ..     .       ..      ...
Afghanistan           .....

                                                                                                                                ...                                  ...                                       113.5       48.6        76.7        101.5        100.0     96.8    97.1     ...       92.7       96.9
Albania                                                                          ...                .       .     ...                                        .

                                                                                                                                                                                                               98.2 92.2               91.8        91.2          92.4     92.1    96.7     ...       91.8       94.4
Bangladesh            ...                                                        ..       111.7 111.3 106.1 105.1 116.6 119.6 103.9 100.2 99.8 106.7 100


                                                                                                                                4
                                                                                                                        781.4 796             8230         781.4 402.3 176.0 140.                        100   85.4 93.7               102.1 100.9 102.6 110.9 1169                       112.2      101.9      113.3
Guyana                ...                                                        ..       544.6 588.7       7
                                                                                                          666
                                                                                                                        141.4         143.3   134.3        126.4           111.2   104.8   103 9         100   104.1       95.3        88.8        102.3        120.6     133.6   151.8    ...       103.9 142.7
Hnaiti                ...                                ...                              117.3   122.9   129.3
                                                                                                                        139.8 146.4 124.1 103.4 98.6                               101.6 105.3 100             101.2 96.4              94.8        101.9 100.2 104.3 102.0                 ...       99.0 103.1
Kiribati              ...        ....                                            ...      138.1 148.7 1448


                                                                                                                        46.1          47.0    50.2         51.5            62.0    69.6    85.3          100   128.7 154.7 2033                    241.3 290.8 325.9 423.3                 ...       245.8      374.6
Myanmar               ..         ..           ..                     ..          ...      49.4    44.3    45.2
                                                                                                          139.1         141.3         130.8   129.3        115.1           113.5   109.8   106.1         100   90.5        88.3        84.1        84.4          79.5     80.7    86.5          -.   82.7 83.6
Nepal                 ...                                                        ...      120.1   127.3
                                                                                                            58.8 67.2 94.8 112.2 162.6 116.4 711                                                         100   966         94.2        94.7        88.5          81.3     80.6    81.9    84.4       88.2 82.3
Nicaragua             .....                                                               37.1    47.148.6
                                                                                                      138.8 127.3 121.9 110.8 103.0 98.6 99.1 95.7                                                       too   91.7        94.8        92.9        104.3 98.8             106.0 101.2           -.   98.7 103.6
Sasnoan.                         ...                                      ...             131.0 135.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                         t00   102.7 101.5 102.4 105.4 103.0 11081 120.2                                   ...       103.6 115.2
      Islands
Solomon                          ........                                        ...      153.8 164.0 168.9 153.0 154.5 141.0 119.2 103.2 106.0 109.3
                                                                                                                                                                                                         100   104.8 104.4 106.0 106.3 101.2 110.2 1190                                    ..        104.5 114.6
SriLanka              ...                     ..                 ..              ...      113.6 120.8 128.2 127.5 141.9 132.6 118.1 105.6 104.8 99.5
                                                                                                      967   96.5 98.9 93.4 93.2 87.2 96.8 101.1                                                          100   105.8 107.0 106.4 106.1 102.6 107.4 111.7                                   ..        105.0 109.6
Tonga                 ...                                                        ..       83.8 96.5
                                                                                                                                      128.8   122.6        108.2           105.3   110.2   105.3         100   105.3       101.8       97.4        98.0         94.7      100.4   1077     ...       96.7       104.1
Vanuatu                          ...                                      ...             118.7   117.2   117.9         119.0
                                                                                                                                                           608.7           17466   576.8   119.7         100   98.3        106.1       116.6       115.1        122.6     1309    135.3    I..       118.1 133.1
Vietnam               .......                 I.                ......
                                                                                                                                      174.5   1730         195.7           2536    144.0   103.0         100   101.9       98.5        104.1       110.5        113.6     120.7   132.2   98 3       109.4      126.5
Average               ...        ........                                                 143.3   152.0   160.8         169.8
                                                                                                                                      100.6   193.4        189.7           238.9   143.4   108 9         100   101.4       98.6        102.5       1059         108.6     118.8   1281    99.9       105.5      1236
Avg. non-SSAcount     ..                                                         .        143 5   154.8   1645          171.7
                                                                                                                        1784          173.5   167.7        149.2           148 2   120.1   107.4         100   98.8        94.2        96.0        88.9          89.0     94.2    101.3   97.6       91.3       98.0
Avg. all countries   1439       172.7        173.7             182.0            1645      166.5   180.1   183.8


Sou,ree IMFIFS.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       A-ex Table 3.4 (I of 2)


Annex Table 3.4: Current                        Account Balance (percentage                           of GDP in current US$), 1975-98
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Tenad Avqgge
Countiy Group             1975     1976        1977     1978     1979     1980     1981     1982     1983     1984     1985     1986     1987      1988    1989     1990     1991    1992     1993    1994    1995     1996    1997    i 998   93-95        96-98
FY 96-97 HIAL, CFA courktries
cm ffmp                    -10.9    -11.8       -10.6    -11.5    -15.7    -10,0   -11,7     -10.2    -6.9     -2A      -5.3     -4.7     -9.7    -5.3    -2.6     -4.6     -2.9    -4.1     -5.9    -4.9    -1.9     -2.7    -1.3    -2.6     -4.2         -2.2
Chad                                            -9.4     -11.9    -7.2     -2.0     -5.7     -5.5     -6.6    -11 9     -25.9    -20.3   -16.8    -17.2   -20.3   -17.5     -153    -16.2    -18.4   -X 9    -18.9    -17.4   -17.7   -15.1    -19.4        -16.7
Cote d'lvoire              -11.6    -6.8        -4.0     -11.5    -16.3    -19.2    -17.6    -14.3    -15.0    -2.1      0.1     4,8     -10.8    -115    -14.4   -14.3     -12.7   -12.0    -12.3   -1.3    -6A      -5.2    -4.9    -4.5     -6.7         -4.9
Mali                       -23,2    -11,8       -6.9     -22.0    -20.5    -I&I     -219     -19.9    -19.2   -24.6     -34.7    -29.1    -24.0   -17,0   -14A    -13.8     -14.8   -16.3    -12.9   -16.3   -14.4    -14.2   -10.4   -T2      -14.5        -10 6
Niger                      -9.9     -11.6       -12.5    -197     -14.3    -15.5   -14.5     -22.3    -10.7    -8.3     -22.1    -20.3   -18.5    -10A    -11.6   -11.3     -7 6    -8.0     -7.7    -13,6   -9,8     -&8     -11.1   -10,5    -10.4        -10 I
Average                    -13.9    -10,5       -8.7     -15.3    -14.8    -13.0    -14.5    -14.4    -11.7    -9.9     -17.6    -15.8   -15.8    -117    -12.7   -12.3     -10.7   -11.3    -11.4   -11.4   -103     -9.7    -9.1    -9.0     -11.0        -&9
FY 96-97 HIAL, on-CFA countries
Kenya                      -9.3     -6.6        -1.7     -15.7    -11 4    -15.5   -12,5     -8 8     -5.4     -6.6     -7.0     5 4     -11 3    -8.6    -10 2    -8.0     -3.7    -3.9      1,2    -0.2    -5.4     -2.4    -3.5    -2.9     -1.5         -2.9
Madagwm                    -5.4     -3.6        -17      -5.4     -14.3    -15.8   -128      -11.3    -9.5     -9.3     -9.2     -8.3    -10.4    A LO    .8.3    -12.9     -12.3   -9.2     -9.9    -10.9   -10.2    -TI     -TS     -7.2     -10.3        -7.4
Mala"i                      -              .    -11.4    -2U      -38 1    -27.8    -20.1    -16.8    -16.7    -9.6     -17.6    -16 1    -219    -8.2    - 14O    -8.4     -97     -20 6    -16.6   -22,6   -12.2    -14.1   -9.5    -11.8    -17A         -IL8
Mauritmia                  -25.5    -40.8       -45.9    -46.0    -32.0    -31.5   -34.4     -48.7    -39,0   -30.3     -40,9    -38,5   -28.7    -ITO    -11.7   -15.6     -14.5   -18,5    -22.2   -15O    -10.7    -8.9    -7.5    -6.1     -16.0        -7.5
Mozm bique                  ...      ...          -       ...      ...      ...      ...      ...      ...      ...     - 146    -17.0    -45.9   -39.0   -43.4   -37.8     -36.9   -46.6    -48.4   -47.1   -34.9    -27.9   -22.4   -26.1    -43.5        -25.5
Tanzmia                              ...         ...      ...      ...      ...                                                                   -11.4   -14.6   - I9. 1   -17.2   -21.8    -245    -25.5   2 1,1    -16.2   -12.4   -136     -23.7        - 14 1
Ugmda                                                     ...      ...     -16A     -191     -9.6     -9.1     -4.7     -4.9     .3 A     -4.7    -45     -6,8    -10.0     -135    -1 1.8   -12.3   -6.4    -7.7     -6.3    -5.5    -7.7     -8,8         -6.5
Zm bia                     -31.5    -6.5        -11.8    -13.7    -2.8     -17.9    -23.2    -21A     -10.4   -15.5     -23.1    -40.1    -29.3   -2.3    5.6     -10.4     -15.2   -22.8    -145    -12.6   -14.2    -12.6   -10.3   -13O     -138         -12.0
Average                    -17.9    -14.4       -14.7    -21.8    -193     -20.8    -20.3    -19A     -15.0   -12.7     -16.7    -18A    -2L7     -12.8   -143    -15.2     -15 4   -19.4    -18.4   -17.5   -14.6    -11.9   -9.9    -11.1    -16.8        -11.0
Avg. ali HIAL countries    159      -i2 4       -11.7    -18.6    -17.3    -17.2    -17.7    -17,1     13.5    -11.4    -17.1    -17.3    -193    -12.7   -IS.7   -14A      -13.6   -16.3    -15.7   -15.2   -12.9    -11A    -9.6    -9.9     -14.6        -10.2
Non-HIALSSA countries
Angola                                                                                                                   1.8     -6.1     4.7     -9.0    .2.2     -2.9     -6A     -11 1    -19.8   -22A    25.8     -10,2   -11.6   -14.6    -22,6        -12.1
Benin                      -13,8    -14.0       -11.2    -155     -9.1     -7.3     -11.9    -34 0    -16.8    -10,7    -9.1     -9.9     -9.0    -10,9   57       -62      -5.9    -9.(     -7.5    -52     -9. 1    -6.8    -6,0    -6.1      -6.9         -6.3
Botswma                    -19.3    -14.9       -15.2    -39.9    -20.7    -24.1    -33.1    -22.8    -15.1   -11.3     -07      0.3      29A     6.7      8.2     -2 3      4.0     3.1     10.2     3,7     T5      11.9    12.1     3.7      7.1          9.2
Burkina Faso               .15.3    -11A        -162     -14.4    -16A     -12.2    -15.0    -16.9    -14.0   -12.1     -15A     .12.1    -12.1   -8.3    -9.1     -9.4     -11.4   -108     -9.7    -8.7    -11A     -13.4   -12.6   -109      -9.9        -12.3
Burundi                                                                                                                 -11.3    -11.7    -16.0   -14.6   -14.0   -20.3     -19.4   20.1     -19.4   -14.8   .11.5    -9.9    -4.9    -5A      -15.2         -66
Cape Verde                                                                                                                                -29.7   -14,8   -12.2   -12.3     -12.5   -21.2    -19.3   -23.9   -24A     -17.4   -16.4   -19.3    -22.5        -IT7
Cmtral Afr. R                                   -11.6    -IO.3    -12.4    -16.7    -12.0    -15.7    -14,9   -19.2     -13A     -15.6    -13.6   -14 6   -13.2   -16.5     -13.1   -14.4    -113    -6.7    l 1. 1   -4.8    -2.4    -TI      -10.0         -4,8
Comoros                     ...                           -        ...     -27,2    -44,2    -32.6    -32.4    -51.6    -34.5    -27 7    -31.6   -22,0   -17.9   -21.0     -16,9   -20.6    -13.0   -22.9    22.3    -19A    -17.8   -19.9    -19.4        -18.6
Congo                       ...      ...                 -26.5    -13A     -13,1    -25,1    -17.8    -21,6    7A       -10.0    -34.9    -I2.1   -20A    -3.6     -9.3     .18.7   -10.7    -20.2   -38.9   -28.2    -518    -13.2   -12A     -29.1        -26.1
Congo, Dem. Re             -8.2     -11.0       -13.2     1.2     -0.2     -2.4     -59      -5.3     -5.1     -4.2     -4.1     -2.1     -17.8   -7.3    -109     -9.2     .12.9   -11.7    -7.9    -9.6    -8.7     -5.3    -9.1    -9.3      -8.7         -7.9
Djibouti                    ...      ...                  ...      ...      ...      ...      ...                                  -       ...    -21,6   -20.8   -25.9     -23.2   -36,5    -25.5   .21.8   -16.0    -16.0   -14.8   -i6.5    -2L 1        -158
EquatorialGui                                                                                                                      -     -48.6    -50.9   -40.8   -42.8     -64.9   -29.9    -30.2   -61,2   -63.9    -98.0   -223    13,5     -51's        -323
Etitrea                                                            ...      ...                                                   ...      ...     ...     II       ...       .1    -4.4     11-2    11 1    -5.5     -16A    -3.3    13.5      5.9          -2.1
Ethiopia                                                                            -8.6     -9.7     -8.6    -1 L6     -14.8    -11.8   -12.4    -5.6    4.3      -3.4     -58     -3.9     -9.7    -6.8    -4.1     -9.9    -7.1    -7.7      -&9          -9.2
Gabon                                                     1.7      7.3      9.0     9,5      7.2       1.3      1.4     -62      -32.2    -15.2   -16.5   15.0     2.2       1.4    -4.1     -1.3     7.6     3.2      3.2     4.3    -1.9      31           1.9
Garnbia,The                 ...      ...                 -37.2    -27.4    -52 4    45.3     -28.0    -30.8   -20.4     -137     -37A    -24.8    -16,0   -112    -17.9     -13.5   -13.8    -15.7   -13.8   -12.5    -20.1   -12.8   -10.6    -14.0        -14.5
Ghana                      -0.6     4.4         -4.2     -3.1      1.4     -0,8     -1L7     4.3      -6.1     -3.9     -5.3     .4.5     -4.8    -5.0    -61      -6.9     -6,5    -8.6     -14.2   -9.0    -6.5     -8.3    -6.5    -7.9      -9.9         -7.6
Guinea                      ...      ...         ...      -        -                           -        -       ...      ...     -10A     -6.4    -123    89      -9.1      -83     -11.0    -102    -9.2    -9.1     -7.7    -7.7    -T7      -9.5          -7.7
Guinea-Bissau               ...      ...         ...                                         -77.2    -70,7   -79.7     -83,6    -82.7   -66.0    -40.8   -42.3   -29.0     -34.2   -50.6    -29.8   -23.3   .29,5    -27.5   -23.5   -273     -27.5        _16A
Lesotho                    -17.8    -41.8       -21.1    -13.6    -19,6    -7.5     -23.0    -14,9    -115    -25.9     -35.5    -30.0   -168     -41,6   -34.5   -48.3     -66,8   -57.2    -48 6   -54.6   -63.3    -56.2   -50.7   -40.3    -55.5        -49.1
Liberia                     ...      -           ...      ...     -1.9     -0. 1    0.6      -5.8     -15,5    -9.2     -0 6     -7.2     -17.2     -                                                 ...     ...      ...     ...     ...      -
Mauritius                   ...     -6,8        -11A     -13,2    -13A     -115     -15.9    -6.1     -18      -7.0     -4.8     4.0       1.3    -4.3    -0.3    -5.6      -1.6    -1. I    -1 5    -2.5    -5.7     -0,9     0.7    -1.9     -3.2         -0.7
Namibia                     ...      ...                                                                                                          -11,8   -4.9    -7.3      -43     -6.9     -3.3    -3.4    -3.1     -5.6    -31     -14       -3.3         -4O
Nigeria                     ...      -1         -2,9     -10.4     3.4      8.0     -10.9    -14.7    -115     0.3       9.0      0.8     -0.6    -9.6     2.3     7.3      -1.4    -45      -10.4   -6.6    -3,0     1711     4.8    -6.6      -6.7         5.1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Annex Table 3.4 (2 of 2)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Period Averape
                                  1975            1976 1977                 1978 1979               1980               1981              1982 1983                        1984 1985                       1986 1987                     1988 1989                       1990     1991    1992    1993     1994 1995 1996                1997    1998 93-95      96-98
      Group
Country
                                       ..            6.8          -6.8 -17.1 -8.4 -14.7 -14.6 -15.4                        0
                                                                                     -11.1 -10.3 -11.4 -11.0 .13.4 -10.3 -10   -8.7 -10.2 -12.2 -14.8 -53.4                                                                                                                                                      -20.5 -19.1 -17.6 -20.1               -29.6        -19.9
Rwanda
                                      -15.5 -10.9 19.3 -3.1 15.3 -6.5 -78.9 -91.9 -67.9 -83.8 -92.2 -49.2 -58.8 -52.9 -77.5 -66.7 -68.6 -75.2 -75.1 -63.3                                                                                                                                                        -90.3 -79.2 -750              -92.6   -76.2        -82.3
SaoTome&Principe
                                      -10.1 -9.7 -7.8 -18  1 -15.3 -19.6 -26.7 -17.0 -20.6 -22.0 -17.8 -14.6 -14.0 -10.6 -10.2 -8.9 -0.4 -9.1 -10.0 .8.9                                                                                                                                                         -7.6        -6.9 -6.2         -5.3    -8.8          -6.2
Senegal
                                                                                       4 -17.7 -22.1 -23.5 -14.8 -20.0 -17.8 -8.0 -5.8 -4.9 -13.8 -7.5
                                            -23.1 -19.0 -20.9 -20.3 -19.7 -199 -35.9 -27                                                                                                                                                                                                                         -11.2 -15.1 -16.6 -112                -10.8        -14.3
Seychelles                             ...
                                       ..-                         9.7          -15.3       -204        -17.6          -13.8             -14.7              -4.7              -4 7                 -7.6       8.6        -10.3         -8.1I             -11.1         -14.3    -ISO0   -17.4   -16.1    -17.5   -21.1       -20.9      ..       .     -18.2        -20.9
SierraLeone
                                                                  -36.5         -31.3       -54.2       -83.3          -53.0             -70.3              -49.0         -45.3                -39.7          -58.2      -54.9         -20.7             -44.7         -37.1    -32.0   -30.9   -266     -25.2   -23 7       -22.3     -21.1   -19.9   -25.2        -21.1
Somalia
                                  .                  .            .              ..                 .                      .                    ..                                         .              .         ..     ..          1.7                   1.4        1.9     2.0      1.5     1.6     -03     -2.0        -1.3      -1.5    -2 1    -0.2          -1.6
South Africa          .
                                      -12.3         -7 6          -7.3          -7.5        -8 6        -15.9           -14 6            -18.3              -11.1             -8.9             -11.0          -7.9       -6.0          -17.1             -37.7         -74.4    -68.1   -45.1   -28.6    -21 5   -13.6       -15.5     -18.8   -19.0   -21.2        -17.8
Sudan
                                      13.2           6.8          -0.9          -26.6       -34.8       -28.1           -19.3            -26.0              -24.2             -21.1            -17.5          -3.8       4.6           -0.4              -6.3          -6.3     -7 4    -19.8   -24.1    -11.8   -12.2       -14.8     -19.6   -21.1   -16.0        -18.5
Swaziland
                                      -18.1         -10.1         -15.9         -31.4       -29.0       -12.2              -9.6          -15.6              -13.4             -5.4             -26.8          -140       -11.7         -11.9             -11 4         -13.1    -9 1    -10.3   -9.1     -8.1    -6.8        -6.2      -6.9    -7.1    -8.0          -6.7
Togo
                                       ..                ..       -0.1I          I0         -1.3         -5.2              -8.8           -8.7              -7.1              -4.1                 -4.1       -2 3       -2.3           07               -1.0          -2.9     -6.3    -12.5   -4.7     -4.6    -4.8        -2.1      -9.0    -4.8    -4.7          -5.3
Zimbabwe
                                      -10.7         -11.8         -10.1         -16.0       -13.0       -16.0          -20.5             -23.6              -19.9             -185             -17.9          -17.5      -16.          -15.1             -14.7         - 16.2   -17.3   -1735   -15.6    -16.6   -17.0       -167      -12.6   -12.4   -164         -14.1
Average
Non-SSA, adjusting conunt,ies
                                                    -4.4          -7 1          -14.7       -15.3        -3.0           -14.9             -7.4              -8.9              -10.1            -12.8          -15.0      -15.1         -6.6              -5.7          -4.1     -4.9    -9.7    -8.8     -3.6    -4.8        -5.0      -8.7     ..     -5.7          -609
Bolivia                                ..

                  .           .               ...                                            ....            .                 ..                                             .                      ..                                              .                  .-               4.7    -4.7     -6.5    -6.3        -5.9      -6.8     ..     -5.8          -6.3
Cambodia
                                      -12 3         -9.1          -8.9          -9.3        -10.1       -13.8          -12.3              -9 9              -10.3         -13.8                -10 7          -8.5       -8.7          -2.8              -4.9          -1.7     0.6     -7.5    -8.8     -10.1   -5.1        -8.4      -61             -8.0          -7.2
Hionduras
                                       ..                                                                                                                             .       -8.3                 -6.0       -8.3       -17.5         -13.0             -11 4         -6.3     -2 9    -4.3    -2.7     -10.4   -134        -14.3     -12.8           -8.8         -13.5
LaoPD1R                                                                                                  .                 .                   .

Mongolia                                                                                                                                      ..                 ..                                                                                                                             5.3       6.8    4.1           ..       ..
                                                                                                             ..                                                                                                                                                                                 -7.1     -8.2    -4.2        -4 2       ..-             65           -4.2
Tajikistlan.
                                                                                                                                                                 ...                 ..                                        .              .15.6                             -13.5   -19.9   -27.5    10.5     2.8        -1 4      -1 3     ..      4.7          .4.3                 O
Yemen, Rep...                                                                                                                       ..

                                                                  -8.0          -12.0       -12.7        -8.4           -13.6             -0.6              -9.6              -10.7                -9.9       -10.6      -13.8         -7.4              -7.4           0.9     -3.2    -9 2    -7.7     -3.1    -3.8        -6.5      -7.1     ..     -6.6          -6.6                 LaS
Average                               -12.3         -6.8
Non-SSA, nan-adjusting countries
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         .
Afghanistan                                                                                                                                                                               ......

                          .                   .                   ..                                             ...                                         .                                                                         -1 3              -1.7            35.6   -14.9   -7.2     1.2     -7.9    -0.5        -4.1      -11.1           -2.4          -7.6
Albania       .
                                      -7.0          -11.7         -9.0          -10.4       -8.0        -15.5          -10.7             -13.7              -8.8              -6.8                 -8.0       -11.5      -10.4         -3.8              -7.0          -7,1     -4.2    -2.4    -2.5     -1 6    -3.5        -5.1      -2.7            -2.5          -3.9
Bangladesh
                                                                                                    ..                     42.8          -5035              -49.5         -55.9                -47.5          -52.5      -43.1         -20.5             -26.1         -9.8     -6 9    -9.9    -30.1    -14 4   -18.6       -13 0      ..-            21.0          -ISO0
Bhutan                                  ...                                             .

Guyana                                                            -22.6         -7.2        -179        -23.3           -35.0             -318              -33 7             -24.9            -23.9                               .           ..-                                       37 1   -30.0    -23.1   -21.8

                                      -7.9          -5 2          -7.2          -9 0        -9 1        -11.2           -14.7            -12 2              -11.7             -9.9                 -9.8       -8.6       -8.7          -1.8              -2.5           -0.7    -2.8     0.4    -06      -1.2    -3.3        -4.6                      -1.7          -4.6
Haiti
Kiribati                                 ..                                      .            ..                                                       ..                                                     .-                        5.9              -4.7          -28 5    12.6    -26.7   -12.2     3.6                           .

                                                                                                         61.0           -58.1            -49.3              -53.1             -31.4            -17.1          -14.9      -11.0          8.2                  83         5.9     -5.5    -10 3   -21.~9   -4.7    -6.1         3.0       ..-             10.9         3.0
Maldives                                              .-

                                                     ....                                    ....                                              I                 ..               ....                                    ..            ..                   ..          ....                    ..       ..      ..           .....                      ..            .
Myanmar..
                                      -2.8          -1.5          -1 9          -4.9        -5.2        -11.4              -7.1           -9 1              -12.9             -9.3             -12.5          -13.2      -13.8         -7.7              -8.4          -8.4     -9.3    -7 9    -7 9     -5.6    -7.8        -12.8     -9 8     ..     -7.1          -11.3
Nepal
                                       ...                        -85           -1.6         7.5        -22.3           -25.9            -23.5              -21.1             -21.8            -31.5          -27.3      -20.7         -27.2             -35.7         -30.2    -15.2   -41.7   -33.5    -35.2   -26.0       -21.3              ..     -31.5         -21.3
Nicaragua
                                       ...                             ..       -32.9       -441        -28.0           -30.8            -23.2              -16.8             -14.7            -17.9          .41.3      .19.2          7.2              10.7           5.9     -17.6   -35 4   -31.0     4.2     6.0         7.0                      -6.9          7.0
Samoa
      lslands
Solomoti                              -54.9         -27.8         -16.9         -29.8       -13.4       -30.5          -41.3             -37.1              -28.1             -7.9             -26.6          -17.3      -32 4         -13.0             -14.5         -13 1    -15.3    05
                                                    -2 4           1.1          -6 7        -11 6       -21.7          -15.1             -16.0              -13.6             -3.7             -10.3          -10.3      -89           -5.7              -5.9          -3 7     -6.6    -4.6    -3.7     -6.5    -5.9        -4.9      -2.6            -5.4          -3.7
Sri Lanka                             -5.0
Tonga         .           .                   .                   .              .           ..                                                    .                      .                         .         -16.3 -23
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      5                -14.0 6 8                        5.1     -0.1I -03       -4.1
Vanuatu....                                                                      ..                              .             .         -34.1              -34.7         -13.6                -26.6          -31.0      -47.0         -6.8              -8.7          -40      -6.4    -5 9    -7.1     -10.2   -9.1         ..

                                                                                                                                                                              .                    ....                                                  .         .            -2.0    -0.8    -3.3     -8.6 -100           -11.3     -102            -9.0          -10.7
Vietnam                                                       .             .           .           .                  .                  .                 .

                                      -15.5 -97                   -9 3          -12.8       -12.7       -25.9           -28.1            -27.3              -25.8             -182             -21.1          -19.5      -21 7         -7.3              -6.9          -7.3     -6.7    -12.6   -13 7    -8.6    -0.9        -6.9      -73             -9.8          -6.0
Average
                                      -15.0         -09           -9.0          -12.6       -12 7       -22.7           -25.7            -24.4              -23.3             -16.6            -10.7          -176       -20.0         -7.3              -7.0          -5 3     -6.4    -11.8   -11.7    -6.6    -7 0        -6.8      -7 2            -8.6           67
Avg. non-SSA countries
                                      -13.4         -11 3         -10.2         -15.8       -13.9       -17.9          -21 I             -22.4              -19.4         -16.4                -17.9          -17.5      -17 8         -12.6             -12.5         -12:8    -13.5   -15.6   -14 4    -13.3   -13 3       -13.0     -10.9   -11 7   -14.0         -11.4
Avg. all countfies


Sowrrrr IMF'IFS.
                                                     64


                                                                                                             AnnexTable3.5 (1 of2)




Annex Table 3.5: Differential Between Domestic Basic Interest Rate and Real LIBOR Rate, 1993-97

                                                                                                Period Average
Country Group              1993    1994       1995        1996            1997                93-95          96-97
FY 96-97 HIAL, CFA countries
Cameroon                   14.6    -7.9       -25.7        ...
Chad                       17.9    -36.5      -4.3        ...              ...                 ...
Cote dIlvoire              7.7     -19.0      -10.2       0.9              ...                -7.2           0.9
Mali                       10.5    -17.8      -8.3        -2.8             ...                -5.2           -2.8
Niger                     10.3     -28.6       -6.8       -1.6             ...                -8.4           -1.6
Average                   12.2     -22.0      -11.1       -1.2             ...                -6.9           -1.2
FY 96-97 HIAL, non-CFA countries
Kenya                      -1.1    -10.3      19.5        15.0            17.3                 2.7           16.1
Madagascar                  ...      ...       ...         ...
Malawi                      1.6     2.3       -36.6       -13.6            ...                -10.9         -13.6
Mauritania                  ...      ...       ...         ......                                             ...
Mozambique                  ...      ...       ...         ...              ...                 ...           ..
Tanzania                   -9.9    34.3       10.5        -9.6             -4.7                11.6          -7.1
Uganda                    -6.6      5.5       3.8          5.5             2.5                 0.9           4.0
Zambia                     ...     -37.1       1.9         1.0            -10.5               -17.6          -4.7
Average                   -4.0      -1.1      -0.2        -0.3              1.2                -8.9          -1.1
Avg. all HIAL countries    5.0     -11.5      -5.6        -0.7              1.2                -8.2          -1.1
FY 96-97 non-HIAL SSA countries
Angola                               ...        ...        ...      ...                 ...           ...
Benin                      9.4     -31.6      -10.8       -1.1             ...                -11.0          -1.1
Botswana                  -0.7      0.0        -1.0        0.0            -0.1                 -0.6          0.0
Burkina Faso               8.9     -17.7       -3.7       -2.5             ...                 -4.2          -2.5
Burundi                   -0.6      -8.3      -12.9         ...
Cape Verde                 ...       ...       ...         ......                              ...
Central African Rep.      13.8     -19.8      -14.0        ...             ...                 ...            ...
Comoros                    ...       ...        ...        ......                              ...            ...
Congo, Republic of         6.0     -38.2       -3.5        ...                                 ...            ..
Congo, Dem. Rep. Of         ...      ...        ...        ...
Djibouti                    ...      ...        ...        ...
Equatorial Guinea          9.3     -34.1       -6.2        ...                                 ...            ..
Eritrea                     ...      ...        ...         ...
Ethiopia                   1.3      7.8        -4.8        ......                                             ...
Gabon                      10.3    -31.4       -4.8         ...            ...                  ..
Gambia, The                6.9      6.5         6.5        6.4             8.1      .          6.7           7.2
Ghana                      9.4      5.1       -17.9        -3.5           12.9                 -1.1          4.7
Guinea                     9.3      9.8         9.0        12.1            9.3                 9.3           10.7
Guinea-Bissau              -7.9     7.8        -9.8        0.4             ...                 -3.3           0.4
Lesotho                    -0.3     2.3        2.8         4.8            3.4                   1.6          4.1
Liberia                              ...        ...         ...                                 ...           ...
Mauritius                 -1.3      1.4         1.9        3.1            -2.3                 0.7           0.4
Namibia                    5.3      1.7         4.0        6.9             2.0                 3.7           4.4
Nigeria                   -31.8    -46.5      -59.9       -18.7            1.4                -46.1          -8.6
Rwanda                     -2.0    -56.0       -9.4        4.2            -4.0                -22.5          0.1
Sao Tome & Principe        3.9      2.4         9.8        -3.4            5.9                  5.3           1.3
Senegal                   10.4     -25.1       -4.4        0.8             ...                 -6.4          0.8
Seychelles                  ...      ...       ...         ...             ......                             ...
                                                      65


                                                                                          Annex Table 3.5 (2 of 2)



                                                                             Period Average
Country Group                  1993    1994    1995        1996   1997      93-95        96-97
Sierra    Leone                 ...     ...     ...        ...     ..
Somalia                         ...     ...     ...        ...               ...              ...

South Africa                   1.6      1.0    3.0         6.7    3.7        1.9           5.2
Swaziland                      -0.8    -4.8    -0.7        2.7    1.0        -2.1          1.8
Togo                           9.9     -28.3   -11.7       -1.0         .   -10.0         -1.0
Zimbabwe                       0.2      4.2     3.5        2.7    8.2       2.7           5.5
Average.                       2.9     -14.1   -8.4        -5.1   1.0       -8.4          -2.3
Non-SSA, adjusting countries
Bolivia                         ...     ...     ...         ...    ...       .....
Cambodia                        ...     ...     ...         ...
Honduras                        ...     ...     ...         ...              ...              ...

Lao PDR                        18.1    20.2    2.9         24.6    ...      13.7          24.6
Mongolia                        ...    89.4    89.8        56.8   4.8        ...          30.8
Tajikistan                      ...     ...     ...         ...

Yemen,       Rep.               ...     ...     ...         ...    ...       ...              ...

Average                     18.1       54.8    46.3        40.7   4.8        ...
Non-SSA, non-adjusting countries
Afganistan                      ...      ...    ...         ...    ...        ...

Albania                        -51.7   -0.6    9.3          8.4   -3.9      -14.3          2.3
Bangladesh                      2.2    -3.8    -5.1        -0.4   -0.9       -2.2          -0.6
Bhutan                          ...     ...     ...         ...    ...       ...              ...
Guyana                         4.7      3.7     1.5        2.0    3.6        3.3              2.8
Haiti                           ...      ...    ...         ...    .....                      ...
Kiribati                        ...      ...    ...         ...    ...        ...             ...
Maldives                        ...      ...    ...         ...    ...
Myanmar                         ...             ...         ...    ...

Nepal                           1.4     0.4    -0.5        -0.9   -2.3       0.4           -1.6
Nicaragua                      -9.3    -0.2                 ...    ...        ...             ...
Samoa                            ...     ...    ...         ...     ...       ...

Solomon       Islands            ...     ...    ...         ...     ...

Sri Lanka                       4.7     5.6     5.9        -1.8    3.5       5.4              0.9
Tonga                            ...     ...     ...        ...     ...       .....
Vanuatu                          ...     ...     .....              ...        ...            ...
Vietnam                          ...     ...     ...        ...     .....                     ...
Average                        -8.0     0.8    2.2          1.5    0.0       -1.5             0.7
Avg. non-SSA countries         -8.0     0.8    2.2          1.5    0.0       -1.5             0.7
Avg. all countries              1.7    -11.3   -6.4        -2.9    0.8       -1.2             0.2

Source:       IMFIFS.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Annex Table 3.6 (I of2)


Annex Table 3.6: Non-gold Reserves (weeks of imports), 1975-98
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Period Average
Country
      Groap                     1975   1976        1977 1978 1979            1980 1981 1982 1983 1984                                        1985   1986       1987    1988   1989 1990 1991           1992     1993    1994   1995    1996      1997 1998             93-95          96-98
Ph! 96-97HIIAL,CFA countries
Cameroon                        2.5    3.7         3.0      2.6    5.1       6.1        3.1        29              6.8            2.5        6.0        1.8      L.9   7.2    3.3    0.9        1.9    0.9      0.1     0.1    0.2                           ..          .
Chad                            1.2    10.5        5.2      2.8    6.9       3.6        3.5        5.9             9.3            12.7       10.5       3.9     12.0   14.4   24.7   23.3       24.9   17.2     10.1    22.3   33.7
Cote dIvoire                    4.7    3.1         5.5      10.0   3.1       0.3        0.4        01              0.6            0.2        0.1        0.5     0.2    0.3    0.4    0.1        0.3    0.1      0.1     5.5    9.4     10.6      11.0        ....       5.0             10.8
Mali                            1.2    2.4         1.7      2.1    0.9       1.7        2.5        2.6             2.4            5.0        3.9        1.4      2.2   3.7    17.7   16.4 36 1         26.4     27.3    19.5   21.7    29.2      26.6        ....       22.8           27.9
Niger                           25.9   34.0        26.7     21.9   14.9      11.0       10.7       3.3             8.5            16.0       19.2       26.7   41.6    31.2   30.4   29.7       29.7   24.4     26.6    17.5   13.2    11.9      6.5         ....       19.1            9.2
Average                         7.1    10.7        8.4      7.9    6.2       4.5        4.0        3.0             5.5            7.3        7.9        6.9     11.6   11.4   15.3   14.1       18.6   13.8     12.8    13.0   15.6    17.2      14.7        ....       15.6            16.0
              non,-CFA
FY 96-97 HOtAL,       countries
Kenya                           9.5    14.8        21.1     10.7   19.9      12.0       6.2        6.7             14.7           13.8       14.1       13.3     7.6   6.9    6.9    5.0        3.4    1.6      12.4    13.4   6.2     13.3      9.2         12.5       10.7            11.7
Madagascar                      0.1    7.7         10.3     6.9    0.4       0.8        2.5        2.5             3.9            8.4        6.3        16.9   31.9    32.3   34.3 8.4          10.3             ...    8.7    11.3    24.7      30.7        ....       10.0           27.7
Malawi                          126.0 66.0 194.0 115.0 9.1                   8.1        7.1        3.9             2.6            10.9       8.2        4.9      9.1   18.6   10.4   12.3       11.3   2.9      5.4     4.5    12.0    18.8       ....       5.2        7.3             12.0
Mauritania                      15.4 23.9          12.6 22.8 22.9            25.5       31.8 26.2 24.3 19.4 13.2                                        11.3    15.9   12.1i 19.3 12.8 5.9             ..        ...    5.1     -I     ..        I..           ..
Mozatmbique...                                                                                                                                                                                         ..        ...     ..    ...      ..        ...        . .....
Tanztania                       4.4    9.2         20.1     4.5    3.2       0.8        0.8        0.                  1.2        2.1        0.6        3.4      1.8   4.9    2.8    9.8        6.9    11.3     7.1     11.5   8.7     16.4 24.2             ....       9.1            20.3
Uganda                          8.1    13.6        9.9      10.    60.0      0.5        4.5        10.8            14.7           10.3       4.3        4.9      3.3   2.9    2.7    10.8       15.6   11.2      ...    19.2   22.5    23.1      25.1        ...        20.9            24.1
Zambia                          7.9    7.2         5.1      4.3    5.6       3.6        2.8        3.0             4.0            4.6        19.1       6.8      7.6   8.4    6.7    8.2        12.2    - .     12.4    23.5   16.4    8.2       15.4        ...        17.4            11.8
Average                         25.2   20.3        39.0     25.0   17.0      7.8        8.0        7.6             9.3            9.9        9.4        8.8     11.0   12.3   11.9   9.6        9.4    6.8      9.3     12.3   12.9    17.4      20.9        8.9        12.6            17.9
Avg. all HIAL countries         17.7   16.3        26.3     17.9   12.7      6.2        6.3        5.7                 7.8        8.8        8.8        8.0     11.3   11.9   13.3   11.5       13.2   10.7     11.3    12.6   14.1    17.4      18.6        8.9        13.6            17.3
Nona-8UALSSA countries                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       0
Angola...                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ..          ....
Blenin                          4.2    4.6         4.0      2.6    2.3        1.3       5.5        0.6                 0.6        0.4        0.6        0.5     0.5    0.7    0.9    12.7       41.3   22.1     22.2    31.1   14.q    20.5      20.0        ....       22.7            20.3
Botswana                               18.7        18.5 21.1 258.0           25.8       16.5       22.1            28.0           35.4       70.2       87.4 114.1 98.2       98.5 90.5 100.8 107.4 121.9 141.3 129.4 852.8 132.0                            ...        130.9          142.4
       Faso
Buarkina                        26.3   25.8        14.0      8.3   10.6      9.9        10.9       9.3             15.2           26.4       21.9       30.0   38.6    36.8   42.9   29.2       33.8   38.1     39.1    35.4 39.7      25.1                             38.1            25.1
Burondi                         25.9   44. 1       66.2     43.0   30.7      29.3       19.8       7.2                 7.7        5.5        8.1        17.8    14.9   17.7   27.7   23.7       29.7   40.9     41.5    47.4   46.5    57.1      48.4        1.3        45.1            35.6
Cape Verde                             96.5        58.0     38.3   41.5      32.5       27.8       30.7            27.4           25.7       34.4       27.3   41.8    39.8   34.8   29.5       23.1   21.9     19.5    10.5   11.8    ....

Central AfricanRep.             2.9    17.8        20.8     22.2   32.9      35.2       38.0       19.5            31.5           31.5       22.9       20.3   24.6    40.0   39.1   39.9       57.7   35.8     46.4    78.4   69.8    ..
Comsoros                                                                     11.4       13.5       17.3            16.3           4.2        16.8       24.6   30.8    23.3   37.6   29.9       26.1   20.6     33.8    43.5   37.0    ..
Conga, Rep. af                  4.1    35          3.3       1.9   75.0      7.7        14.4       2.5             0.6            0.3        0.3        0.6      0.2   0.2    0.3    0.5        0.4    0.5      0.1     4.1    4.6     3.1                               2.9            3.1
Congo, Dem. Rep of              8.3    11.6        34.3 33.3       54.0      38.1       35.4       12.6            33.7           10.4       12.5       16.0    12.4   12.7   11.9   12.8       13.4   19.4     6.5     16.4   19.2    10.1                  ...        14.0            10.1
Djibouti     .        ..                             ....                     ..        ...            .....       .              10.5       13.2       15.1    16.1   16.6   15.7   22.7       24.3   19.8 .     ..      ..   ..      ..... .       .            .3     ..
Equatorial Guinea                                                   ...       ..         ..        4.7             3.6            4.1        9.0        2.7     0.5    4.7    0.8    0.6        7.3    12.4     0.4     0.5    ...     0.1        ..         ...        0.5             0.1
E itlrea..                        .     ..         .. .      ..     I. .      ..        .. .       . .                 .. .        ..         .I          .      . .   .. .    ..     I.        I.      ..       .. .    ..     .. .    ....             .   . ..             ..          .
Ethiopia                        46.0   43.5        31.5     17.5   l5.8      5.8        l8.8       12.0            7.5            2.4        7.7        ll.8     6.0   3.0    2.5    1.0        6.0    l5.l     30.1    27.4   35.0                          9.8        30.8            9.8
Gabon                           16.2   12.0        0.7      1.9    2.0       8.3        12.3       18.7            14.2           14.3       11.7       7.6     0.9    4.4    2.3    15.3       20.4   5.3              12.0   8.7
Gambia, The                     24.9   14.5        16.3     13.5   0.7        I.8       1.6        4.2                 1.3         l.2       l.0        6.8     l0.5   7.2    6.6    14.4       15.9   20.9             24.4   39.3    22.2      19.8        ....       31.9           21.0
Ghana                           8.1    5.7         6.8      14.6   17.6      8.3        6.8        10.2            3.0            27.1   34.0           34.1    10.3   12.7   14.2              27.A   7.7      5.4     14.4   ..       .            ..      ..           .
Guinea-...                                                                    ..        ...        .....                                                         ..    ...    I.                ..     ...       ..      ...   ..      .....
Guinea-B8issau                                 .    ...     .. .      ....          .          .   .           .                                        -0.5     ...   12.5   15.7 13.9 11.2           11.1     12.0    5.8    7.9     6.9       .             ..       8.6             6.9
Lesotho                                                                      6.1        4.8        5.4             7.1            5.7        6.6        8.8      7.5   5.0    4.3    5.6        7.4    9.1      15.1    22.9 24.1      23.8          ..                 20.7            23.8
Liberia                         3.0    2.2         3.1      1.9    5.6       0.5        1.1        0.8             2.6            0.5        0.3        0.5     0.1    0.1     ..    I.          ..    . .        ..     ..    ..       ..        ..           .
Mauritius                       26.1   130.0       7. S     4.8    2.7       7.7        3.2        4.2             2.1            2.6        3.0        10.5   18.0    18.2 20.3 23.7 29.5             26.2     22.9    20.1   22.7    20.5      ....        1I.A       21.9            15.8
Namibia.              .......                                                                                  .              .          .          .          ..                          ..          2.0      5.9     8.8    ...      ..       ..
Nigeria                         48.1   32.8         9.8     7.7    28.2      31.9       9.7        5.2             4.2            8.1        9.8        13.9    15.5   7.2    21.~9 35.7        25.0   6.2      9.5     11.1   8.0     26.5      ..                     9.5             26.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            AnnexTable3.6(2 of 2)




 CounnryGroup                            1975           1976 1977 1978 1979                             1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985                                    1986       1987       1988       1989 1990                  1991   1992    1993     1994   1995   1996       1997   1998   93-95      96-98
 Rwanda                                  135            32.3           37.2      24.2 41.2              39.9 31.8 23.3 20.7 20.0                             19.7        24.2       24.3       16.6       11.0 8.0                   18.7   142     7.4      16.2   27.6   31.1       26.6   3.2    17.1       20.3
 SaoTome& Principe...                                                                                                                ..         ...            -                     .          ..         ...            ..         ...     ..      .....                                           ....
 Senegal                                 2.8                23             2.2    1.3        1.1        0.4     0.4     0.6          0.6       0.2            0.3         0.5        05         0.5       08              0.5        0.6     0.6    0.2       6.5   10.9   11.8       16.9   ....    6.5        14.4
 Seychelles                              10.4               8.6            13.1 8.3          7.5        9.7      7.7    6.9          5.9       3.2            4.5         3.8        63         2.8       3.8             4.6        8.4    8.3     7.8       7.6   60     4.1        ...    ..      7.1        4.1
 SierraLeone                             0.0                8.6            9.6    6.5        7.7        3.7     25      1.5          5.3       2.6            3.7         5.4        24         2.5        1.1            L9         3.1     6.8    10.2 14.0       13.3    6.5        ..           12.5        65
 Somalia                                 23.0           28.4 27.4 27 2                      9.3         2.2      3I     1.4          1.4       0.5            1.2         2.4        2.9        7.2        1...1.. ..
                                                                                                                                                                                                          IL1                                                                                         .
 South
     Africa                              31                 3.0            3.5    2.9        2.5         L.9     L.5    1.4          2.7       08             1.4         IS5        2.2        2.2       2.7             2.8        2.5     26     2.6       3.7    48     1.6       7.6    83.8    3.7        31.0
 Sudan                                   21                 1.3            1.1    12        3.2          1.6    06      0.9          0.6       0.8            0.8         3.2        07        0.6                        1.0        0.4     17     2.1       3.5   7.2     ...         ..
Swaziland                                13.2           191            270       19.0       13.6        13.2 8.4        7.5          87        93            13.4        14.2       15.2       14.1       16.1           17.0        12.5   18.6    15.7     16.6   14.0   11.2       11.9   6.9    15.4        10.0
Togo                                     123            18.7               84    8.1         6.7        7.3     18.2 22.2 31.9 39.1 53.5                                 57.0       43.6       24 8       31.4           31.6        42.7   35 9    45.3     22.1   176    11.4       16.5   . ..   28.3        14.0
Zimbabwe                                 45                 5.7            5.3   11.2       16.7        7.7      5.2    4.5          3.3       2.1            5.4         5.6        82         8.2       3.0             4.2        3.8    5,2     12.3      9.4   11.6     .-..                    ..
Average                                  14.7 221                          17.6 137         27.5        12.9 11.9       9.2         103        10.2          13.4        15.1       16.2       14.7       17.1 17.5 21.2                    19.0    20.6 23.5       25.3   23,5       33.3   16.8   23.4       220
Nen-SSA,       cnuntries
        adjusting
Bolivia                                  13.0           14.2 1798 10.9                      10.4        83      5.7    146          14.4 26,8                15.1        12.6        6.6       9.3        17.4 12.6                  5.7    8.7     9.6      19.4 24.1     30.4       31.2   ....   177        30.8
Cambodia.                  ...........                                                                                                                                          .          .          .              .              .....                                                    6.2
Honduras                                 12.6           149                16.3 13.8 132                7.7     5.5     8.3          7.4       75             62         6.6         67        2.8        1.1             2.2        5.7    9.9     4.5       8.4   8.3    7.0        14.7   15.7   71          12.5
Lao PDR                                                                                                                                                                                                   0.4             0.5        7.1    8.6     8.7       5.6    81    12.8               -      7.5        12.83
Mongolia                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    20      8.6      19.0 14.7     12.7       ..            14.1        12.7
Tajikistan                                   .

Yemen, Republicof           .            ........                                                                                                                                                                                   17.4    6.4     2.7      6.3    20.4   260                      98         26.0
Average                                  12.8           14.6           17.1      12.4       118         0.0     5.6    11.5         10.9       17.2          107         9.6        6.7         61        6.3             5.1        9.0    7.1     6.8      11.7   15.1   1789       23.0   11.0   11.2        19.0
Non-SSA.no-.adjusting countries
Afgbhnistan                              12.9           26.1           43.7      51.4       53.9        230       1
                                                                                                                16.    13.9         10.5       8.6           12.9        9.6        14 6       15.1       15.4           14.8        19.3     -..                    .
Albania                                                                                 .          ..                          .           .            ..                ...         .         ..    .    -              ..    .           . .     13.8     17.8   17.6   17.3       ...     -     16.4        17.3
Bangladesh                               3.8            15.8           10.4      10.8       10.5        6.0     2.7    4.1          12.6       7.2           6.3         8.6        16.4       17.9       7.1            9.1         19.5   24 2    31.3     34.7   18.7   14.4       ...    36.6   28.2       25.5
Bhutan.                                                                                                                                                                                                   ..              ..
Guyana                                   15.3           3.9                3.8   11.6       2.9          1.8    0.8     1.9          1.5       14             1.5         1.9        1.7        1.0       2.7            4.8         21.1   221i    26.6
H4aiti                                   4.3            7.0                8.3   8.6        10.5        2.2     27     0.6           1.1        1.5          0.8         2.3        2.2        2.0        2.3            05          2.2                     6.4    8.4    8.4        62     ....    7.4        7.3
Kiribati.            .             .                .                  .         .           .            .        .           ..                ...           ...                   ......                    ...                                    ..                          .
Maldives                                 .              0.1                0.4   2.1        1.7         1.7      1.9   10.1         4.2        5.0           4.5         81         5.3        12.5       11.4           92          7.6    7.7     7.3       7.3   9.3    13.1       14.7   2.2    8.0         10.0
Myanmar                                35.1             34.7           22.3      16.3       38.3        38.3    31.9   13.3         174        13.5          6.2         5.7        5.3        16.5       68.1           60.2       20.8    22.4    194      24.8   21.9   8.8        5.7    ...    22.0        7.3
Nepal                                  29.
                                         1              40 7           43.1      34.)       32.5        27.8    20.5   26.2         149        10.2          6.4         9.8        16.2       16.9       19.0           22.9       28.3    31.3    37.4     31.2   22.9   206        ...           30.5       20.6
Nicaragua                                12.2           14.3           10.1      4.4        21.2        3.8     3.8    I 1.5        11.0       ....      .     .     .               1.1       2.5        9.8            8.7         9.3    7.9     3.8      8.4    7.4    8.8        16.2   6.7    6.5         10.6
Samoa                                    9.1            9.2            11.6      4.7        3.4         2.3     3.0    36           7.8        11.0          14.2        26.2       31.3       33.8       38.0           44.7       37.5    28.9    25 2     32.4   30.3   31.5       34.7   ....   29.3       33.1
      Islands
Solomon                                                                    4.5   35.8       27.5        17 3    12.3   27.3         33.4       29.4          22.3        21.4       23.6       21.1       12.0           10.0        3.9    11.0    7.6      6.4    5.4    ...        . .    0.9    6.5         0.9
Sri
  Lanka                                  3.7            8.2            21.7 21.3            18.3        63      9.2    100          85         14.2 12.7                 9.9        7.1        5.1        5.8            8.2         11.7   14.0    21.2     22.3   20.9   188        18.0   ....   21.5        18.4
Tonga                                                   .              239       206        223         19 0    18.1   19A4 29 0               33.3          34.8        28.8       31.3       28 6       23.9           26 4       28.3    26.4    31.4     26.7   19.4   21.4                     25 8       21 4
Vanuatu         ..                                                ..                                            7.6    4.9          54         6.1           7.9         194        30.0       30.0       25.7           20.5       25.1    27.0    30 I     25.4   26.4   23 4                     27.3       23 4
Vietnam     .            .....                                                                                                                   ....                                                                                       8.8     48       7.4    92     8.2        9.2    -.     7.1         8.7
Average                                  142            160            17.0      185        20.3        12 5    10.8   11.3         121        It 8          10.9        12.6       143        156        18.6           18.5        18.0   19.3    20.0     19.3   16.8   16.2       15.0   11.6   18.2        157
Avg. non-SSACountries                  13.9             15 8           17.0      176        19.0        l 1.8   10.1   11.3         11.9       12.6          10.8        12.2       13.3       14.3       16.3           16.0        15.9   15.7    16.3     172    16.3   16.7       16.7   11.4   16.3        166
Avg. all conntries                     15.3             19.1           19.5      15.8       21.7        11.1    t0.l   9.0          10.2       10.5          11.7        12.9       14.4       14.0       16.0           15.8        17.9   16.6    17.6     19.3   20.0   19.7       23.0   13.6   18.8        19.1


Source: IMFIFS.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Annex Table 3.7 (I of 2)


Annex Table 3.7: Gross Domestic Investment (% of GDP in current prices), 1975-98
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Period Average
CountryGroup           1975   1976         1977         1978         1979   19S0   1981   1982   1983   1984   1985   1986   1987   1988   1989   1990   1991   1992   1993   1994   1995   1996    1997   1998     93-95     96-98
FY 96-97 HIAL, CFA countries
Cameroon               20.8   18.7         23.0         23.2         24.6   21.0   27.2   24.8   26.0   25.9   24.9   25.5   24.7   20.9   17.1   17.8   16.7   13.5   16.6   15.3   14.5   15.7    16.9   18.0       15.5     16.9
Chad                   3.3    3.3          3.3          3.3          3.3    3.3    3.3    3.3    3.1    5.4    8.2    9.1    10.1   7.9    9.0    9.0    7.7    8.5    12.8   18.7   17,7   19.3    19.4   19.4       16.4     19.4
Cote d Ivoire          16.7   17.4         21.8         22.6         21.8   22.8   22.8   22.8   17.8   11.5   14.4   12.1   12.3   12.7   8.9    6.7    7.4    5.4    8.3    12.5   15.0   13.4    16.0   18.2       11.9     15.9
Mali                   24.2   24.2         24.2         24.2         14.7   14.8   14.9   15.0   12.4   13.0   16.7   2t.7   20.4   21.0   21.3   22.4   22.8   Z1.9   21.9   26.0   26.7   26.3    25.8   25.9       24.9     26.0
Niger                  10.9   10.1         28.1         27.6         29.0   28.1   20.3   20.6   12.5   3.1    12.7   11.6   11.7   19.1   13.7   8.1    9.2    5.4    5.7    10.4   7.5     9.7    13.2   13.3       7.9      12.0
Average                15.2   14.7         20.1         20.2         18.7   18.0   17.7   17.3   14.4   11.8   15.4   16.0   15.8   16.3   14.0   12,8   12.7   10,9   13.1   16.6   16.3   16.9    18.3   19.0       15.3     18.0
FY 96-97 HIAL, non-CFA countries
Kenya                  12.9   15.1         18.1         22.6         17.2   22.8   24.1   21.7   21.1   23.2   25.5   21.8   24.3   24.8   24.7   24,2   23.2   17.8   19.1   20.7   22.5   20.3    19.8   19.9       20.7     20.0
Madagascar             9.8    9.8          9.8          9.2          16.2   15.0   11.5   8.5    8.4    8.6     8.5   9.0    10.1   13.3   13.4   17.0   8.2    11.3   11.4   10.9   10.9   11.1    12.3   13.2       11.1     12.2
Malawi                 29.8   21.8         24.7         38.4         31.4   24.7   17.6   21.4   22.8   12.9   18.6   12.3   15.7   18.7   21.2   20.6   19.9   19.4   12.0   14.4   18.6   14.7    14.9   13.8       15.0     14.5
Mautritania            46.4   53.3         44.7         26.5         28.6   36.1   41.9   47.1   17.9   27.2   24.2   33.5   29.1   20.0   18.3   18.8   18.2   20.1   16.9   15.4   12.8   12.3    11.7   11.2       15.0     11.7
Mozambique, Rep. of 22.5      22.5         22.5         22.5         22.5   22.5   22.6   22.8   20.2   22.0   17.0   16.3   36.1   43.3   40.6   44,6   45.7   48.8   54.4   51.0   51.2   47.9    48.6   43.2       52.2     46.6
Tanzania               34.6   37.7         42.8         41.3         42.8   37.8   39.4   35.7   30.9   28.0   28.7   22.6   23.0   19.2   19.8   23.0   19.8   22.0   24.5   22.8   20.8   18.6    21.2   22.7       22.7     20.8
Uganda                 5.1     5.1         5.1          5.1          5.1    5.1    3.2    2.8    5.1    6.1     7.0    7.3   9.7    10.8   11.1   12.7   20.1   21.1   20.6   22.8   19.7   20.9    22.1   22.1       21.0     21.7
Zambia                 53.2   30.2         28.6         27.7         16.4   27.0   21.7   18.4   16.7   19.8   25.2   32.0   15.2   11.4   10.8   17,3   11.0   11.9   15.0   13.4   13.9   15.9    15.4   18.1       14.1     16.5
Average                26.8   24.4         24.5         24.2         22.5   23.9   22.7   22.3   17.9   18.5   19.3   19.3   20.4   20.2   20.0   22.3   20.8   21.5   21.7   21.4   21.3   20.2    20.7   20.5      21.5      20.5
Avg. all lIIAL countr 22.3    20.7         22.8         22.6         21.1   21.6   20.8   20.4   16.5   15.9   17.8   18.1   18.6   18.7   17.7   18,6   17.7   17.5   18.4   19.6   19.4   18.9    19.8   19.9       19.1     19.6
Non-HIAL SSA countries                                                                                                                                                                                                                       O'N
Angola                 20.4   20.4         20.4         20.4         20.4   20.4   22.1   24.9   20.8   20.7   15.9   15.9   16.3   11.8   12.6   7.9    12.9   13.0   12.6   13.4   13.6   14.8    17.2   19.0       13.2     17.0          Co
Benin                  35.4   27.5         26.0         24.2         33.2   35.6   42.3   32.5   16.4   13.8    9.2   13.5   12.9   15.6   11.8   14.2   14.5   13.8   15.4   15.8   19.6   17.1    18.0   18.8       16.9      18.0
Botswana               45.7   39.9         29.9         33.5         33.4   35.2   40.8   34.3   27.4   30.8   20.0   23.8   12.9   228    29.8   32.0   30.1   28.3   26.5   24.3   24.6   25.3    27.6   27.4      25.1      26.8
BurkinaFaso            9.4    11.5         9.4          9.3          13.6   14.6   17.3   18.3   15.0   14.8   24.3   21.6   20.9   19.8   21.6   20.6   20.6   21.3   19.8   19.3   22.2   25.4    24.8   24.7       20.4     25.0
Burundi                14.2   14.2         14.2         14.2         15.1   13.9   17.0   14.5   22.8   18.4   13.9   11.6   22.6   15.0   16.5   14.5   14.4   15.0   15.7   8.7    7.8     8.8    S.1     7.2       10.7      7.1
Cape Verde             44.3   44.3         44.3         39.6         54.0   40.0   45.4   53.4   52.3   46.4   43.3   47.7   44.9   36.9   38.2   23,7   27.8   37.6   35.2   41.5   35.9   36.1    40.0   40.0       37.5     38.7
Central African Repu   12.3   12.3         12.3         12.3         12.3   12.3   12.0   4.2    12.2   10.5   13.0   14.0   13.7   11.8   11.8   14.3   12.7   12.5   11.7   13.2   14.4    5.6    3.3    9.1        13.1      6.0
Comoros                17.7   17.7         17.7         18.6         21.5   28.9   23.4   21.1   29.0   45.0   32.8   23.8   25.2   21.8   17.4   19.7   20.3   22.2   20.6   21.0   19.9   18.9    22.7   23.7       20.5     21.7
Congo, Rep. of         28.2   28.2         29.1         29.1         29.6   38,0   57.2   62.5   39.0   31.9   32.0   30.3   18.6   17.6   13.3   15.9   20.5   21.6   29.5   54.5   36.0   60.0    25.9   31.8       40.0     39.2
Congo,Dem.Rep.of       0.0    0.0          0.0          0.0          11.1   7.1    10.0   7.1    7.8    9.8    12.2   13.0   14.6   13.9   14.7   9.0    5.5    6.9     1.7   7.8    7.4     6.1    6.0    6.2        5.6       6.1
Djibouti               7.8     8.5         10.0         10.0         10.0   14.1   16.1   20.4   20.7   24.3   20.2   14.7   15.9   11.9   14.5   18.8   14.4   19.1   17.3   11.7   8.6     9.2     9.4   10.8       12.5      9.8
EquatorialGuinea       35.7   35.7         35.7         35.7         35.7   35.7   29.7   45.4   28.7   22.7    6.2   14.1   21.9   20.1   20.4   17.4   50.7   23.3   21.6   73.5   74.9   113.5   80.4   33.5       56.7     75.8
Eritrea                              ...          ...          ...           ...    ...    ...    ...    ...    ...    ...    ...    ...    ...    ...    ...    ...    ...    ...    ...    ...     ...    ...       ...       ...
Ethiopia               12.2   11.2         10,3         9.4          11.0   12,6   13.3   13.4   11.9   16.3   10.5   15.5   14.6   19.4   13.5   11.8   9.9    9.2    14.2   15.2   15.7   21.0    20.3   20.0       15.0     20.4
Gabon                  63.6   63.6         63.6         41,9         39.4   32.9   42.6   40.8   40.9   42.2   45.5   40.5   35.1   36.2   32.5   21.7   26.5   22.4   22.4   21.9   21.2   20.1    21.0   22.2       21.8     21.1
Gambia, The            32.3   32.3         32.3         32.3         25.7   30.5   28.8   24.9   22.3   22.7   21.2   15.4   19.6   15.5   17.6   20.4   19.7   20.1   21.0   18.4   16.2   23.8    20.4   17.9       18.5     20.7
Ghana                  12.7   11.6         10.9         6.8          6.5    5.6    4.6    3.4    3.7    6.9    9.6    9.7    13.4   14.2   15.5   14.4   15.9   12.8   15.9   15.9   18.6   18.7    16.7   20.5       16.8     18.6
Guinea                 13.4   13.4         13.4         13.4         13.4   13.4   13.4   13.4   13.4   12.5   12.5   14.9   16.3   17.1   17.2   17.5   16.5   16.5   16.2   13.6   14.5   13.0    14.2   14.7       14.8      14.0
Guinea-Bissau          53.4   53.4         53.4         53.4         53.4   53.4   33.6   36.8   31.2   42.9   33.0   29.0   31.8   41.1   38.5   27,9   31.0   48.3   30.9   21.8   22.3   21.8    21.8   22.1      25.0      21.9
Lesotho                16.9   24.7         52.1         36.6         44.8   41.1   41.5   49.3   32.1   39.7   48.8   44.0   46.2   51.8   65.2   72.5   71.7   74.5   74.8   80.6   78.7   87.6    82.2   75.0      78.0      81,6
Liberia                36.1   31.9         36.1         32.3         33.0   26.8   18.8   21.6   17.6   18.2   12.7   11.8   11.7   10.3   13.4   13.2   12.0   12.0   12.0   12.0   11.0   10.1    9.2    8.5        11.7      9.3
Mauritius              30.1   32.3         29.7         30.3         31.5   24.8   23.5   21.6   17.6   19.9   23.0   22.8   24.0   28.5   31.2   31.2   29.7   29.1   30.1   29.9   30.6   24.9    25.0   29.0      30.2      26.3
Namibia                21.9   19.3         18.2         16.6         17.6   20.3   23.5   17.9   17.1   14.8    9.6    7.5   13.3   16.1   16.1   24.8   18.5   21.2   16.5   23.2   20.5   19.8    19.7   20.7       20.1     20.1
Nigeria                62.4   57.6         70.3         65.8         51.0   52.9   45.4   35.7   26.5   10.2    6.6   19.0   15.1   16.9   15.9   14.2   22.1   25.7   14.0   13.7   11.3   11.5    12.0   14.6       13.0     12.7
Rwanda                 11.4   12.3         12.9         18.3         13.2   12.4   12.8   19.0   15.0   17.7   18.0   15.8   15.6   14.9   13.4   11.7   11.4   13.9   14.9   3.4    9.0    10.8    13.9   13.5       9.1      12.7
                                                                                                                                                                                                             Annex Table 3.7 (2 of 2)

                                                                                                                                                                                                               Period Average
                                                                                                           1985   1986   1987   1988   1989   1990   1991   1992   1993   1994   1995   1996   1997   1998      93-95   96-98
CountryGroup             1975   1976   1977   1978   1979   1980   1981   1982   1983         1984
                                                                                              16.8         15.4   14.5   13.8   19.4   26.4   29.5   29.5   38.0   40.1   41.1   57.7   50.1   53.3   59.5      46.3      54.3
SaoTome&Principe         24.7   27.2   30.7   28.2   25.8   16.8   16.8   16.8   16.8
                                                                                              15.6         10.5   11.7   12.5   12.7   11.8   13.6   12.3   14.0   13.2   13.6   15.6   16.5   16.5   17.5       14.2     16.8
Senegal                  15.0   14.4   14.3   14.3   11.8   12.7   16.0   14.9   15.9
                                                                                              21.7         22.7   22.9   19.6   25.4   27.4   24.6   22.1   21.0   25.4   25.1   25.1   25.0   21.4   21.4      25.2      22.6
Seychelles               60.6   38.9   40.0   43.3   32.9   38.3   32.6   32.3   21.2
                                                                                                           10.2   10.5   8.1    8.0    9.8    9.4    10.5   8.2    7.7    8.5    4.8    9.3    16.4   16.8       7.0      14.2
Sierra Leone             21.0   14.2   18.2   15.6   14.4   17.7   15.9   13.9   13.3         11.7
                                                                                                           29.8   25.2   33.3   23.9   30.3   15.5   13.4   14.1   13.5   14.2   13.1   12.2   11.2   10.4       13.6     11.3
Somalia                  26.2   29.8   32.5   27.3   29.8   17.4   27.5   26.6   16.6         35.6
                                                                                                           20.3   19.1   18.5   21.0   21.1   17.6   16.9   15.6   15.7   17.4   19.0   18.2   16.6   17.9       17.3     17.6
SouthAfrica              32.7   28.9   27.2   24.8   26.3   30.3   33.1   25.2   25.8         24.9
                                                                                              14.0         4.4    14.6   12.5   11.9   8.6    6.9    13.7   14.7   14.6   15.3   14.0   13.6   13.5   13.1       14.6     13.4
Sudan                    18.7   29.2   25.3   21.5   6.7    -4.2   12.8   22.0   16.6
                                                                                              33.4         26.2   20.0   14.9   24.8   23.9   20.7   20.6   23.1   23.0   23.3   20.9   20.7   19.9   19.5       22.4     20.0
Swaziland                23.8   31.1   32.3   52.5   49.5   38.6   31.2   30.2   30.0
                                                                                                           16.8   18.8   17.6   16.0   25.8   26.6   17.1   14.5   5.2    12.6   14.1   13.4   14.4   15.8       10.6     14.6
Togo                     27.0   24.4   33.7   42.7   43.9   30.1   30.2   26.3   22.1         14.0
                                                                                              18.9         17.8   18.0   17.3   21.6   18.6   18.5   19.1   20.2   22.8   24.1   23.2   25.7   22.2   22.7       23.4     23.5
Zimbabwe                 34.9   24.0   19.1   11.9   12.7   18.8   23.1   21.2   15.9
                                                                                                           19.7   19.6   19.6   20.2   21,1   19.8   20.7   21.3   20.3   22.6   22.4   24.4   22.4   21.9      21.8      22.9
Average                  27.1   26.1   27.2   26.1   26.0   24.7   25.7   25.5   21.6         22.3

Non-SSA, adjusting countries
                                                                                                           19.5   13.6   11.8   14.0   11.6   12.5   15.6   16.7   17.0   14.9   15.7   17.0   19.4   20.5       15.8     19.0
Bolivia                  35.4   31.5   31.7   31.0   27.1   22.8   20.9   21.0   13.2         19.7
                                                                                                           0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0        0.0       0.0
Cambodia                 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0           0.0
                                                                                                           17.0   13.9   17.4   21.0   19.1   23.0   24.7   26.0   28.8   28.2   26.0   25.9   26.2   26.1       27.7     26.1
Honduras                 20.1   21.1   26.2   27.5   26.5   24.8   21.1   14.1   13.8         17.4
                                                                                                           13.8   11.2   8.7    29.5   18.9   15.3   12.3   12.0   12.6   12.6   11.6   10.9   11.1   11.4       12.3      11.1
LaoPDR                   7.6    7.6    7.6    7.6    7.6    7.6    8.2    16.2   10.3         9.9
                                                                                              54.6         58.8   59.2   50.8   50.7   52.2   12.2   35.6   29.3   27.8   24.8   26.4   22.4   23.1   26.2       26.3     23.9
Mongolia                 41.5   43.9   44.8   45.8   48.4   44.4   76.7   71.2   61.5
                                                                                                           11.7   11.7   11.7   11.7   11.7   12.1   12.1   26.9   26.9   44.0   25.3   8.2     7.1   6.3        32.1      7.2
Tajikistan               11.7   11.7   11.7   11.7   11.7   11.7   11.7   11.7   11.7         11.7
                                                                                                           7.2    6.6    7.3    6.8    12.4   11.2   11.0   15.6   15.0   9.7    10.1   13.9   15.1   16.6       11.6      15.2
Yemen, Rep. of           6.7    7.8    15.3   19.9   20.3   20.0   19.5   15.5   10.1          8.9
                                                                                                           18.3   16.6   15.4   19.1   18,0   12.3   15.9   18.1   18.3   19.2   16.4   14.0   14.6   15.3       18.0      14.6
Average                  17.6   17.7   19.6   20.5   20.2   18.8   22.6   21.4   17.3         17.5

Non-SSA, non-adjusting countries
                                                                                               0.0         0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0     0.0   0.0        0.0       0.0
Afghanistan, Islaissic   0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0     0.0   0.0
                                                                                                           30.4   30.9   28.4   28.9   31.7   28.9   6.1    5.2    12.0   12.3   15.8 14.5     15.4   15.7       13.4      15.2
Albania                  33.6   33.6   33.6   33.6   33.6   33.6   33.6   36.2   34.1         29.8
                                                                                                           12.3   12.3   12.2   12.2   12.3   11.5   11.3   12.4   13.8   14.9   15.5   15.9   16.9   17.5       14.7      16.8
Bangladesh               13.0   13.0   12.2   11.4   13.2   15.5   15.5   14.1   12.4         12.3
                                                                                              36.3         45.4   40.5   30.2   33.3   38.3   33.1   39.9   57.6   40.3   44.0   44.1   43.7   46.1   46.0       42.8     45.3
Bhutan                   35.0   35.0   35.0   35.0   35.0   31.0   38.5   40.5   39.8
                                                                                                           19.4   18.5   22.5   15.1   21.9   30.1   29.2   30.4   29.0   20.1   18.3   17.7   18.5   19.9       22.5      18.7
Guyana                   29.2   28.2   21.0   14.8   22.4   21.5   24.0   18.2   15.7         19.4
                                                                                                           16.7   14.5   14.3   13.5   14.3   12.2   11.1   3.5     3.6    1.6    8.7   8.8    11.6   12.2       4.6       10.9
Haiti                    14.4   144    14.4   15.6   17.4   15.7   17.7   16.7   16.4         15.9
                                                                                              0.0          0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0     0.0    0.0       0.0       0.0
Kiribati                 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0     0.0   0.0
                                                                                                           37.4   28.6   38.4   39.5   42,7   32.2   39.8   44.4   47.1   40.1   48.6   53.0   44.9   41.6       45.3     46.5
Maldives                 24.4   24.4   24.4   24.4   24.4   24.4   28.0   25.6   40.7         37.6
                                                                                                           15.5   12.7   11.6   12.8   9.2    13.4   15.3   13.5   12.1   12.1   13.1   10.8    9.3    8.7       12.4      9.6
Myanmar                  10.7   10.0   13.0   18.2   22.3   21.5   23.0   22.2   18.0         15.1
                                                                                                           20.3   21.2   22.3   21.5   18.1   19.6   20.0   21.1   21.1   21.7   22.9   22.8   24.3   25.8       21.9     24.3
Nepal                    15.8   15.8   15.8   19.0   16.4   19.0   18.3   20.9   19.9         23.3
                                                                                                     ...           ...   0.0    29.0   28.0   19.5   20.1   18.0   17.4   19.5   20.0   20.5   20.5   20.0       19.0     20.3
Nicaragua                 ...    ...    ...    ...    ...    ...    ...    ...          ...
                                                                                                           26.7   24.6   29.5   23.8   24.6   40.8   41.9   47.9   44.1   33.0   37.6   30.1   30.0   30.1       38.2     30.0
Samoa                    34.8   34.8   34.8   34.8   34.8   28.7   28.7   28.7   23.6         28.5
                                                                                                           13.8   25.2   42.5   33.9   42.4   35.2   42.0   40.3   36.7   33.2   27.9   31.6   31.6   32.8       32.6     32.0
Solomon Islands          13.8   13.8   13.8   13.8   13.8   13.8   13.8   13.8   13.8         13.8
                                                                                                           22.6   23.7   23.3   22.8   21.7   22.2   22.9   24.3   25.6   27.0   25.7   24.2   25.8   27.7       26.1     25.9
Sri Lanka                12.6   14.1   14.4   20.0   25.8   33.8   27.8   30.8   28.9         25.8
                                                                                                           26.4   24.2   22.2   23.2   20.2   18.5   16.7   17.7   17.5   17.6   13.8   15.3   15.2   15.2       16.3      15.2
Tonga                    29.2   29.2   29.2   29.2   29.2   31.8   29.5   31.2   29.3         23.9
                                                                                                           29.6   29.6   30.8   26.2   28.0   29.0   27.0   27.2   29.0   30.5   33.1   34.4   36.5   39.0       30.9     36.6
Vanuatu                  29.6   29.6   29.6   29.6   29.6   29.6   29.6   29.6   29.6         29.6
                                                                                                           0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0     0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0       0.0       0.0
Vietnam                  0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0     0.0   0.0          0.0
                                                                                                           19.8   19.2   19.3   19.8   20.8   20.4   20.2   21.4   20.5   19.3   20.3   20.2   20.4   20.7       20.0     20.4
Average                  18.5   18.5   18.2   18.7   19.9   20.0   20.5   20.5   20.1         19.5
                                                                                                           19.3   18.4   18.2   19.6   20.0   18.0   18.9   20.4   19.9   19.2   19.2   18.4   18.7   19.1       19.4      18.7
Avg. non-SSA countr 18.2        18.2   18.6   19.3   20.0   19.6   21.1   20.8   19.3         18.9
                                                                                                           19.2   18.9   18.9   19.7   20.1   19.0   19.6   20.3   19.8   20.9   20.8   21.4   20.7   20.6       20.5     20.9
Avg. all countries       23.3   22.5   23.6   23.2   23.1   22.4   23.3   23.0   19.9         20.0


Source: IMFIFS.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Annex Table 3.8(1 of 2)


Annex Table 3.8: Real Per Capita GDP Growth, 1975-98
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Period Average
Contry Group                    1975   1976    1977    1978    1979     1980    1981   1982    1983    1984    1985    1986   1987    1988     1989   1990    1991    1992    1993     1994   1995   1996    1997   1998    93-95       96-98
FY 96-97 HIAL, CFA countries
Cameroon                        2.9    -0.3    2.9    3.1     3.6      6.1     13.7     4.6    4.0     4.7     5.3     3.9    -4.9    -10.5   -4.7    -9.0   -6.6    -5.9    -6.0    -5.3     0.5    2.1     2.2    2.2      -3.6        2.2
Chad                            4.5    -1.9   -0.6    -2.8    -22.7   -6.7     -1.4     2.8    12.6    -0.4    18.4    -6.1   -4.2    11.0     3.2    -0.6   6.0      5.5    -17.7    7.7     1.2    0.6     6.1    5.5      -2.9        4.0
CotedIvoire                     3.7    7.5     0.6    6.0     -2.0     0.0      1.2    -3.5    -7.2    -4.7    -0.2    0.7    -4.1     0.2    -1.1    -5.0   -3.8    -4.0    -4.0    -1.9     3.2    3.1     2.1    2.1      -0.9        2.4
Mali                           -10.8   0.5    -2.0    0.1     3.1      3.4     -5.3     3.5    -7.9    -1.9    -3.7    5.3    -1.8    -3.1     8.5    -2.5   -3.8     5.2    -5.2    -0.7     3.3    0.9     3.6    1.5      -0.9        2.0
Niger                          17.4    12.1    0.1    6.3     9.5      5.1     -3.5    -1.2    -7.0    -19.7   4.3     3.1    -3.0     3.6    -2.1    4.3    -0.9    -9.6     0.2     0.7     -0.7   0.0     0.2    1.2      0.1          0.5
Average                         3.5    3.6     0.2    2.5     -1.7     1.6      0.9     1.2    -1.0    -4.4    4.8      1.4   -3.6     0.3     0.8    -4.3   -1.8    -1.8    -6.5     0.1     1.5     1.3    2.8    2.5      -1.7        2.2
FY 96-97 HIAL, non-CFA countries
Kenya                          -2.3    1.2     6.3    4.1     2.4      2.2      0.1    -2.2    -2.9    -1.9    0.3     2.9    -2.3     1.9     1.6    8.2    -5.9    -4.8     -3.6   -1.5     1.4     1.2    -1.7   -0.3     -1.2        -0.3
Madagascar                     -0.2    -6.6   -0.3    -5.1    6.7     -2.5     -11.6   -5.9     0.3    -1.6    -1.5    0.7    -1.3     0.8     1.5    0.5    -8.7    -3.8     -0.7   -2.8     -1.1   -0.5    1.0    1.5      -1.5         0.6
Malawi                          2.7    3.7     1,1    7.0      1.2    -2.8     -8.0    -1.0     1.0    2.0      1.3    -3.2   -2.0     0.5    -2.1    2.2    5.3     -10.4    6.3    -13.4    10.6   8.4     1.6    1.9      1.2         4.0
Mauritania                     -0.9    2.7    -6.3    -7.1    4.7      1.4      0.9    -5.0     2.0    23.2    -0.4    3.3     0.5     0.6    -5.3    -4.4   -0.2    -1.1     2.0     1.8     1.1     1.3    1.9    1.9      1.6          1,7
Mozambique, Rep. of            -0.9    1.4    -4.5    -3.1    -1.2     2.6      2.0    -9.5    -17.9   -9.0    -1.6    -4.3   15.0     9.5     6.2    -0.2    2.9    -3.3     12.8   -2.0     -3.3   2.7     3.7    6.6      2.5         4.3
Tanzania                        1.9    3.0    -2.6    -1.0    0.1     -2.8     -1.9    -3.0    -3.9    -2.6    0.8     2.2     2.8     2.5     0.6    3.2     1.9    -1.7    -2.0    -1.5     -0.2    1.0    1.4    1.7      -1.2         1.4
Uganda                         -5.2    -2.6   -1.8     1.5    -10.7   -10.9     1.3     5.6    2.3     -5.4    -5.4    -1.5    1.5     5.7     3.8    3.2    2.6     -0.3     4.9     2,0     7.7    4.9     2.0    2.1      4.9         3.0
Zamnbia                        -5.4    1.1    -7.2    -2.6    -6.1     0.6      3.3    -6.1    -4.5    -4.8    -1.7    -1.5   -1.4     6.1    -7.4    -3.9   -3.6    -5.2     3.0    -11.9    -7.7   2.6     -0.2   1.7      -5.5         1.4
Average                        -1.3    0.5    -1.9    -0.8    -0.4    -1.5     -1.7    -3.4    -3.0     0.0    -1.0    -0.2    1.6     3.4    -0.1     1.1   -0,7    -3.8     2.8    -3.6     1.1    2.7     1.2    2.1      0.1          2.0
Avg. all HIAL countries         0.6    1.7    -1.1    0.5     -0.9    -0.3     -0.7    -1.6    -2.2    -1.7     1.2    0.4    -0.4     2.2     0.2    -1.0   -1.1    -3.0    -0.8    -2.2     1.2    2.2     1.8    2.3      -0.6        2.1
Non-HIAL SSA countries                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        0
Angola                         -11.0   -8.5   -2.8    -8.6    -2.9    -0.6     -6.9    -2.6     1.5    3.3     -8.2    0.2     1.4     3.3    -2.6    -3.3   -2.2    -3.8    -23.4    4.7     8.8    4.1     3.4    3.6      -3.3         3.7
Benin                           1.7    1.3     2.8    0.1     0.9      7.2     -1.5    -1.3    -5.1    -2.7    -0.9    0.1    -4.8    -2.1    -5.2    -0.2    1.5    0.7      0.1     1.3     2.7    2.0     3.5    2.3      1.4          2.6
Botswana                        3.7    15.2    8.0    11.3    8.8      6.7      4.6     7.9     9.6     5.3    3.5     4.4     8.3    14.6     9.0    3.5     5.4     0.6    -0.4     1.1     2.5    4.3     2.9    1.1      1.1         2.8
BurkinaFaso                    -2.8    -2.4   -3.4    7.7     -1.1    -3.9      0.0    -1.2    -3.8    -2.0    8.7     6.1    -3.6     4.3    -1.3    -4.6    7.7    -0.6    -3.6    -1.6     0.9    3.4     2.8    2.9      -1.5         3.0
Burundi                        -1.0    5.6    10.1    -0.8    -0.4    -9.1      9.2    -3.6     0.9    -2.5     8.5    0.3     2.5     2.0    -1.5    0.5     2.0    -2.1    -8.7     0.7     -3.9   -11.6   2.6    1.0      -4.0        -2.7
Cape Verde                     -17.8   1.0    -5.6    8.9      1.5    17.8      3.7     0.4     8.3    2.4      5.8     1.2   -7.7     1.2    -0.9    -4.2   -1.3     0.5     1.4     1.0     1.9    0.2     0.2    1.7      1.4          0.7
Central African Rep            -1.6    2.5     2.3     1.7    -0.2    -5.2      9.6    -5.9    -8.3     7.3     1.0     1.5   -6.8    -1.4     0.6    -4.4   -3.5    -5.0    -4.8     5.0     -0.3   -5.3    1.9    2.2      0.0         -0.4
Comoros                         3.3    -2.7    1.0    0.2     6.7      10.2     2.7     1.4     0.4    -1.3    -0.5    -1.3   -1.5    -0.5    -6.3    2.2    -2.3     5.7     0.3    -7.8     -6.4   -3.1    -2.6   2.2      -4.6        -1.1
Congo                          -6.1    -3.0   -0.1    4.3      8.0     8.0     27.8    11.7     3.3    3.8     -3.7    -9.7   -2.8    -1.1     0.0    0.7    -0.7    -0.4    -3.9    -8.3     -0.8   2.9     -2.5   5.3      -4.3         1.9
Congo,Dem.Rep.of               -7.6    -8.1   -2.3    -8.2    -2.8     3.3     -2.2    -3.6    -1.8     1.7    -2.5     1.7   -0.2    -2.5    -4.2    -9.2   -11.2   -12.9   -16.2   -6.6     -2.2   -2.0    -8.5   -1.0     -8.3        -3.8
Djibouti                        1.8    5.8    -14.8   3.1      1.5     0.9     -0.1    -1.3    -1.8    -2.3     1.4    -4.3   -2.3    -1.8    -5.4    -5.4   -4.3    -5.1    -8.6    -4.6     -5.7   -7.0    -1.2   -2.0     -6.3        -3.4
Equatorial Guinea               4.5    -2.7    5.2    -7.8    -7.7     4.2      3.1    -0.4    2.3     -1.5    -0.6    -4.8    1.8     0.1    -3.7    0.6    -3.6    11.1     3.6    2.4      11.7   26.2    72.1   94.0     5.9         64.1
Eritrea                          ..     ..      ..     ..      ..       ..       ..      ..      ..      ..             .       .       .       .      .       .       .       .       ..      -.     .        .     ...
Ethiopia                       -2.4    -0.3   -1.8    -3.4    4.5      1.3     -3.8    -2.1     7.2    -8.5    -19.2   6.1    10.4    -3.0    -1.6    -0.3   0.4     -9.7     8.5    -3.0     2.1    7.4     2.2    -0.2     2.6         3.2
Gabon                           5.8    36.7   -22.1   -28.9   0.5     -17.0    -6.3     1.6    -0.5    2.3     3.2     -4.5   -17.5    1.0     4.4    2.6    3.2     -6.0    -0.5    0.6      0.9    0.6     1.9    1.0      0.3          1.2
Gambia, The                     2.4    5.6    10.4    -8.5    16.4    -2.2     -14.8   16.5    9.2     -11.2   -0.4    -1.7   -1.2    -2.3     0.2    1.5    -1.9    0.3     -2.1    -2.6     -7.6   -0.7    -1.5   1.7      -4.1        -0.2
Ghana                          -14.0   -6.0   -0.3    5.7     -4.9     1.3     -5.1    -10.9   -4.2    -0.9     1.6     1.6    1.8    2.3      1.8    0.3    2.2     0.7      1.9    0.7      1.4    2.0     -0.1   2.4      1.3          1.5
Guinea                          0.8    5.8    -5.4    4.5     -3.4     0.3     -1.6    -0.5    -1.0    -1.0    2.6     23.5   0.5     3.3      0.6    0.9    -1.0    -0.2     1.5     1.1     1.5    1.6     1.7    1.9      1.4          1.7
Guinea-Bissau                   0.4    0.1    -12.5   29.6    -6.6    13.6     -2.5     2.1    -5.4    3.3     2.2     -3.0    3.4    -0.1     0.8    2.4    3.0     -1.0     0.0     1.1     2.3    2.5     3.0    2.8      1.1         2.8
Lesotho                        -0.5    3.9    -32.1   20.8    -8.5     0.4     -1.6    -1.7    -8.3    6.7     -6.0    0.5    6.2      5.0     7.5    0.8    0.3     -0.3     5.0    7.9      7.0    10.2    5.1    3.2      6.6         6.2
Liberia                        -17.7   0.1    -4.4     1.7    -0.2    -7.7      4.6    -1.8    -6.3    -3.9    -6.2    -4.1   -2.0    -0.3    -13.7   -3.0    1.5    0.5      0.8    0.0      0.5    0.9     -0.5   -0.5     0.4         -0.1
Mauritius                       0.0    20.6    4.9    3.3     3.2      1.1     -8.8    4.2     5.1     -0.2    4.7     8.2    10.2     8.3     4.8    4.0    5.2     3.4      5.4    2.9      2.2    3.5     4.4    4.1      3.5         4.0
Namibia                        -0.3    -1.2   -2.6    0.1      1.0     6.9     -13.0   -4.7    -10.6   0.3     -2.1    1.7     0.8    -2.9    -0.5    -2.9   3.4     4.3     -4.7    3.8      2.4    -0.2    0.8    1.5      0.5         0.7
Nigeria                        -2.0    8.3    -8.9    -9.1    -0.2    -0.1     -6.6    -3.0    -7.9    -10.0   18.9    -5.0   -7.1    5.8      4.9    4.0    2.6     -0.6     0.1    -1.0     1.0    2.4     2.9    0.6      0.0         2.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Annex Table 3.8 (2 of 2)


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Period Average

                                                                                                                                 1987    1988    1989    1990    1991    1992    1993     1994    1995     1996   1997   1998    93-95        96-98
                                      1975   1976    1977    1978    1979    1980   1981    1982    1983    1984   1985   1986
Contry Group
                                                                                                                                         -3.1    -8.8   -1.9    -7.2    3.4     -10.0   -30.8    20.4      -6.7   9.3    6.2      -6.8         2.9
                                      0.0    -0.3    3.5    6.2     5.4     -7.0    -1.2    -6.0     2.2    10.3   1.0    2.0    -3.7
Rwanda
                                                                                                                                         -0.5    0.6    -4.5    -1.3    -1.8    -1.4    -0.3      0.0      -0.5   0.0    0.5      -0.6         0.0
                                      3.3    0.4     21.9    1.7    15.0    -2.2    -12.5   0.6     -6.?    -8.3   6.6    -8.1   -5.3
Sao Tome& Principe
                                                                                                                                         2.0     -4.3   0.8     -3.3    -0.6    -4.9     0.1      1.9      2.7    2.3    2.4      -0.9         2.5
                                      4.7    4.9     -1.7   -8.8    6.7     -3.1    -3.9    12.2    -0.6    -6.7   0.8    1.5    0.9
Senegal
                                                                                                                                         4.9     9.6    6.9      1.4     6.4     2.9    -3.8     -3.9      0.8    1.3    1.5      -1.6         1.2
                                      0.4    3.9     6.1    5.0     14.2    -2.3    -5.4    -2.1    -0.6    3.7    9.4    0.1    0.5
Seych.iles
                                                                                                                                         -0.2    2.6    -0.7    -10.1   -11.7   -2.2     1.1     -12.2     2.5    7.6    12.1     -4.4         7.4
                                      0.7    -5.3    -0.5   -1.0     1.7    -2.8    -0.4    -0.5    -3.8    -0.6   -8.8   -2.1   0.1
SierraLeone                                                                                                                                                                                       3
                                                                                                                                         -8.3    -0.8   -3.1    -21.2   -0.6     1.9     3.7          .I   2.8    2.3    2.0      3.0          2.4
                                      3.9    -2.5    11.0   2.3     -14.5   -2.0     0.3    0.6     -11.8   -1.4   4.4    -0.2   0.6
Somalia
                                                                                                                                          1.8    0.0    -3.7    -3.4    -4.6    -1.2     0.2      0.8      0.7    -0.8   0.1      0.0          0.0
                                  -0.5       -1.2    -2.6   0.1     2.4     4.1      2.9    -3.0    -4.3    2.5    -3.6   -2.4   -0.3
South Africa
                                                                                                                                                 -7.9    4.4     3.3     3.4    -0.9     1.5      13.0     2.0    2.7    3.7      4.6          2.8
                                      3.8    12.9    -2.9   -8.7     1.2    -0.5     3.2     1.2    -3.5    -9.0   2.5    11.1   -3.0     7.0
Sudan
                                                                                                                                          2.9    4.6     5.2    -0.9    -2.1     0.0    -0.1     -0.7      -0.2   -0.2   -0.7     -0.2         -0.4
                                  -0.1       3.7      1.1   9.7     -3.4    -5.7    -0.1    -2.5    -1.4    3.4    0.9    8.4    9.5
Swaziland
                                                                                                                                         6.8     1.1    -3.3    -3.7    -6.9    -18.9   13.2      3.5      4.9    1.6    2.1      -0.7         2.8
                                  -3.3       -3.1    2.9     3.4    2.8     -0.4    -8.4    -4.1    -10.1   2.6    0.6    0.3    -5.5
Togo
                                                                                                                                         6.4     3.1    -4.8    2.4     -11.7   -1.8     3.6     -2.8      4,2    0.7    0.0      -0.3         1.6
                                  -3.8       -3.8    -8.4   -5.1     0.7     8.1     9.3    -1.5    -1.5    -4.9   3.7    -1.7   -4.9
Zimbabwe
                                                                                                                                          1.6    -0.4   -0.5    -1.1    -1.4    -2.5    -0.4      1.4      1,7    3.6    4.8      -0.7         1.5
                                  -1.5        2.6    -1.5    1.0     1.4     0.7    -0.8    -0.1    -1.7    -0.6   0.9    0.8    -0.6
Average
Non-SSA, adjusting countries                                                                                                                                                                                                                   1.9
                                                                                                                                  0.8    4.6     3.8     4.6     5.3     1.6     4.1     4.0      2.0      1.5    1.9    2.1      3.3
                                      5.2    4.1     2.3    -0.4     0.0    -1.1    -1.5    -5.8    -5.9    -5.3   -5.4   3.3
Bolivia
                                                                                                                                          6.6    0.4    -1.9    4.3      3.8     1.0     1.2      4.6      3.7    3.8    3.8      2.3          3.8
                                      19.0   4.9     8.0     7.3     6.9     1.7    -0.9    -2.3     1.2    1.4    1.5    0.;    -3.0
Cambodia
                                                                                                                                          1.5    1.2    -3.0     03      2.4     2.7    -4.6      1.3      1.3    1.6    1.7      -0.2         1.5
                                  -6.1       6.7     6.4    4.5      2.7    -2.8    -1.0    -4.8    -4.1    0.9    0.8    -2.4    2.7
Honduras                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       4.2
                                                                                                                                 -3.8    -4.6    7.1     1.6     1.6     4.6     3.5     5.0      4.1      4,5    4.1    4.1      4.2
                                      1.4     1.5    -3.4   -0.4    -3.3     8.5    13.1    2.7      0.1    3.1    6.6    1.9
LaoPDR
                                                                                                                                          6.0    1.S    -7.9    -11.5   -10.9   -4.5     0.6      4.1      0.6    1.0    2.0      0.1           1.2
                                      6.5     3.9    7.8     7.5    4.3      3.6     5.5     5.7     3.2    3.6    3.1    6.7     0.8
Mongolia
                                                                                                                                         2.2     0.1    -34.0   -10.7   -28.9   -13.4   -22.2    -13.2     -7.0   -0.5    1.7     -16.3        -2.0
                                      1.3    3.0      1.6    2.2    -0.6     1.1     0.4     1.1     1.4    0.1    -2.7   0.3    -0.4
Tajikistan
                                                                                                                                                 4.2    -2.6    -8.4     1.5    -0.1    -3.4      -8.8      1.2   2.0     1.2     -4.1          1.5
                                      0.8     7.2    2.2     4.0     2.8     1.7    18.1     4.4    -0.3    0.4    0.1    0,9     0.4     2.1
Yemen
                                                                                                                                          2.6    2.7    -6.2    -2.7    -3.7    -1.0    -2.8      -0.8     0.8    2.0    2.4      -1.5          1.7
                                      4.0    4.5     3.6     3.5     1.8     1.8     4.8     0.1    -0.6    0.6    0.6    1.6    -0.3
Average
Non-SSA, non-adjrsting    countries
                                                                                                                                         -10.6   -9.5   -5.0    -1.8    -1.5    -5.5    -9.1      18.3     -0.6   -0.4   0.0       1.2         -0.3
                                      1.2    -13.1   11.0    1.6    -3.7    -5.2    -1.5    -0.6    -0.6    -1.8   -2.3   0.4    -12.6
Afghanistan, Islamic State of
                                                                                                                                         -3.3    7.8    -11.7   -28.9   -9.9     9.6     8.8      8.0      8.1    -8.0   8.9       8.8         3.0
                                      2.7     2.7    2.7     2.7     2.7     3.8     3.1    0.7     -1.0    -3.3   -0.3   3.5    -2.7
Albania
                                                                                                                                                 3.1     3.2     2.1     2.8     2.7     2.4      2.9      3.3    3.2    2.9       2.7         3.1
                                  -0.1        0.5     1.9    4.2     0.7    0.1      0.4     1.3     3.1    2.0    1.7    2.9     2.7     1.8
Bangladesh
                                                                                                                                          2.0    2.5     3.8     1.8     2.3     2.9     2.6      4.5      3,5    3.2    2.2       3.3         3.0
                                  -6.1        5.9    5.2    4.3      1.9     2.9     7.9     3.3     5.8    5.0    1.9    7.9    15.5
Bhutan
                                                                                                                                         -2.7    -3.3   -2.1     6.5     8.2     8.6     8.6      3.7      6.7    4.8     1.9      7.0         4.5
                                      9.0     1.6    -7.1   -4.3    -4.7    -0.7    -1.4    -12.6   -9.2    2.1    2.0    -0.8    0.9
Guyana
                                                                                                                                         -1.2    -0.9   -2.1    -1.7    -13.8    -2.4   -10.1     2.4      0.6    -0.3   0.9      -3.4         0.4
                                  -0.4        6.3    -1.2   3.1      5.3     5.6    -4.5    -5.1    -1.0    -1.5   -1.2   -2.3   -2.5
Haiti
                                                                                                                                                 -4.6   -5.8     0.3    -4.0     -1.5    1.8      3.2      0.7    0.0    -0.4      1.2         0.1
                                      0.0    0.0     -1.7    0.0    -1.7    -44.4   -3.5     6.8    -4.1    3.0    -7.4   -3.6   -2.2     7.9
Kiribati
                                                                                                                                          6.0    6.5     11.8    2.8     2.8     2.8     2.3      7.2      2.8    3.1    2.6       4.1         2.8
                                  -10.8      0.6     -u.4   -7.4     7.5    16.5     3.8    4.2      0.7    13.4   9.4    4.6     6.1
Maldives
                                                                                                                                         -13.1   1.8     0.9    -2.5     7.6     4.0     4.9      4.4      4.8    4.8    4.8       4.4         4.8
                                      1.9     3.8    3.7     4.2     3.0     5.6     2.0     5.9     2.7    2.6    0.9    -3.1   -5.7
Myanmar                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         1.7
                                                                                                                                  4.0     3.1    2.6     3.6     1.9     0.7     5.3     -7.2     7.7       1.2    1.9    1.9      0.3
                                      -1.2    2.2    0.8    -2.2     0.2    -4.4     1.1     1.1    -5.5     1.4   2.2    -0.4
Nepal
                                                                                                                                                 -5.0   -3.0    -3.2    -2.8     -3.4    0.0       1.0      1.1    1.3    1.9     -0.8          1.4
                                  -3.4        1.0    4.7    -11.3   -32.9    1.2     0.6    -4.1     1.2    -4.8   -7.3   -4.3   -4.0    -15.4
Nicaragua
                                                                                                                                          1.9    0.9    -10.3   -3.3     -1.1    3.1     -6.5     3.2      4.0    2.3    2.3      -0.1          2.9
                                      -3.3    9.5    -1.0   16.9    10.8    -12.0   -9.0    -1.1     0.5     1.3   7.6    3.7    -0.5
Samoa
                                                                                                                                         -2.1    0.7    -2.4    -1.4     8.7     0.8     0.1      4.1      0.9    0.9     1.4      1.7          1.1
                                  -12.6       8.9    4.8     4.6    12.7    -6.9    -1.8    -5.8    -0.3    -3.7   -6.7   -3.8    4.7
Solomon Islands
                                                                                                                                          1.3    0.8     4.6     3.1     2.8     5.3     4.2      2.0      2.5    4.7    4.7       3.8         4.0
                                      3.0     2.8    2.2     4.3    4.0      3.5     4.0     3.7     3.5    3.9    3.4    2.6     0.0
SriLanka
                                                                                                                                         -2.4    -0.1   -2.5     5.8     -0.2    3.2     4.7      2.6      -2.9   0.0    0.0       3.5         -1.0
                                      -1.1    0.0    -1.1   -0.5    -0.5    -0.5    -0.5     4.2     0.8    0.7    7.1    2,7     2.7
Tonga
                                                                                                                                         -2.2    3.8     3.8     2.6    -2.6     2.5     2.5      -2.9     0.0    0.7    0.7       0.7         0.5
                                      1.7    -1.8    4.4     7.6    -3.3    -3.3     1.0    -0.5     0.6    3.6    -2.6   -4.9   -1.0
Vanuatu
                                                                                                                                          3.1    5.7     2.6     3.6     6.1     6.0     6.5      6.6      7.0    5.3    2.9       6.4          5.0
                                  -58.3       8.3    9.8    -0.7    4.2     -5.6     3.6     6.1     5.1    6.4    3.6    1.3     0.3
Vietnam
                                                                                                                                         -1.5    0.8    -0.6    -0.7     0.3     2.6      1.0     4.3      2.6     1.6   2.3       2.6         2.2
                                  -4.6        2.3     1.9    1.6     0.4    -2.6     0.3     0.4     0.1     1.8   0.7    0.4     0.3
Average
                                                                                                                                         -0.3     1.3   -2.2    -1.3    -0.8      1.5    -0.1     2.8      2.1     1.7   2.3       1.4         2.0
                                      -2.1    2.9    2.4     2.2     0.8    -1.3     1.6     0.3    -0.1     1.4   0.7    0.7     0.1
Avg. non-SSA countries                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1.8
                                                                                                                                 -0.3     1.0    0.3    -1.2    -1.2     -1.5    -0.8    -0.6      1.8      1.9   2.6    3.5       0.1
                                  -1.3        2.5    -0.1    1.3     0.8    -0.2     0.1    -0.2    -1.3    -0.1   0.9    0.7
Avg. allcountries


Source: IMFIFS.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Annex Table 3.9 (1 of 2)

Annex Table 3.9: Real GDP Growth Rate, 1975-98
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Period Average
Country                    1975    1976   1977    1978    1979    1980   1981    1982   1983    1984    1985    1986   1987    1988   1989    1990   1991   1992    1993    1994    1995   1996   1997   1998 93-95      96-98
FY 96-97 HIAL, CFA countries
Camneroon                   5.1     1.9    5.7     5.0     6.0    9.9     17.1    7.6   6.8      7.5     8.1    6.8    -2.2    -7.9    -1.8   -6.2   -3.8   -3.1    -3.2    -2.5    3.3    5.0    5.1    5.0     -0.8      5.0
Chad                        6.6    0.3     1.5    -0.5    -21.4   -6.0    1.0    5A4    15.7     2.1    21.3    -3.7   -1.8    13.8    5.8    1.9    8.5     8.0    -15.7   10.2    3.6    3.0    8.6    8.0     -0.6     6.5
Cote d'lvoire               9.2    12.0    4.7     9.9     2.0    5.2     3.5    0.2    -2.5    -2.0     3.6    4.7    -0.4     1.1    2.9    -1.1   0.0    -0.2    -0.2    2.0     7.1    6.8    6.0    6.0     3.0       6.2
Mali                       -0.9     0.9    0.9     3.0     6.2    -1.2   -2.4    6.6    -5.1     1.0    -0.8    8.4     1.2    -0.2    11.8   0.4    -0.9    8.4    -2.4    2.3     6.4    4.0    6.7    4.7     2.1       5.1
Niger                      20.5    15.3    3.5     8.3    13.6    4.9    -0.2    2.2    -3.9    -16.8    7.7    6.4    0.1     6.9     1.0    -1.3   2.4    -6.5     1.4    4.0     2.6    3.3    3.5    4.5     2.7       3.8
Average                     8.1     6.1    3.3     5.1     1.3    2.6     3.8    4.4    2.2     -1.7     8,0    4.5    -0.6    2.7     3.9    -1.2   1.3     1.3    -4.0    3.2     4.6    4.4    6.0    5.6      1.3      5.3
FY 96-97 HIAL, non-CFA countries
Kenya                       1.5    4.6     10.1    8.0     5.5    5.6     4.1     1.8    1.0     2.1     4.4    7.1    5.9     6.0     5.8    4.5    1.4    -0.8    0.3     2.6     4.5    4.2     1.3   2.7     2.5       2.7
Madagascar                  1.3    -4.0    2.4    -2.5     9.9    0.8    -9.8    -1.9   0.9      1.7     1.2    2.0     1.2    3.4     4.1    3.1    -6.3    1.2    2.1     0.0      1.7   2.1    3.5    4.0      1.2      3.2
Malawi                      5.5     6.2    4.3     9.7     4.4    0.4    -5.2    2.5    3.7      5.4     4.6    -0.2    1.6    3.2     1,3    5.7    8.7    -7.3    9.7     -10.2   14.5   11.7   4.6    5.0     4.6       7.1
Mauritania                  2.1     5.6   -3.6    -4.4     7.7    4.3     3.7    -2.2   4.9     26.7     2.0    5.8    2.9     3.1     2.2    -1.8   2.6     1.7    4.9     4.2     4.3    4.4    4.5    4.5     4.5      4.5
Mozambique, Rep. of         2.1     5.6   -0.2     1.1     3.1    4.7     5.0    -6.9   -15.7   -6.5     1.0    -2.3   14.6    8.2     6.5    1.0    4.9    -0.8    18.8    4.5      1.4   6.2    6.6    9.5     8.2       7.4
Tanzania                    5.7    6.6     0.4     2.1     2.9    3.3     1.2    0.0    -0.9     0.5     4.0    5.6    6.2     5.9     3.9    5.4    4.5     1.3     0.9     1.4    2.6    4.1    4.1    4.7      1.6      4.3
Uganda                     -2.0    0.7     1.6     5.1    -7.6    -3.4    3.9    8.2    4.9     -3.0    -3.0    0.9    4.0     8.3     6.4    5.8    5.2     3.1     8.4    5.3     10.5   8.1    5.0    5.0     8.1       6.0
Zambia                     -2.4    4.3    -4.3     0.6    -3.0    3.9     6.6    -2.9   -1.1    -1.7     1.2    1.7     1.5    9.3     -3.7   -0.5   0.0    -1.7    6.8     -8.6    -4.3   6.4    3.5    5.5     -2.0      5.1
Average                     1.7     3.7    1.3     2.5     2.8    2.4     1.2    -0.2   -0.3     3.1     1.9    2.6    4.7     5.9     3.3    2.9    2.6    -0.4    6.5     -0.1    4.4    5.9    4.1    5.1     3.6       5.0
Avg. all FIIAL countries    4.4    4.7     2.2     3.6     2.2    2.5     2.3     1.8   0.8      1.1     4.5    3.4    2.5     4.6     3.6    1.1    2.0     0.3    2.0      1.3    4.5    5.3    4.9    5.3     2.7      5.2
Non-HIAL SSA countries
Angola                     -5.0    -5.2    0.8    -5.3     0.3    2.4    -4A     0.0    4.2      6.0     3.5    2.9    4.8     6.1     0.1    -0.5   0.7    - .0    -21.2   7.8     II.S   7.2    6.5    6.6     -0.5     6.7
Benin                       4.4    4.3     5.7     2.8     4.9    9.7     1.9     1.7   -2.0     0.4     2.4    3.3    -1.8     1.1    -2.0   2.6    4.7     4.0    3.5     4.4     4.6    5.6    5.8    5.8     4.2      5.7
Botswana                    8.5    15.9    10.5   14.5    13.0    11.7    8.4    11.9   13.6     9.2     7.3    8.2    12.2    18.8    12.9   7.2    7.5     3.0    2.0     3.6     5.1    6.9    5.5    3.8     3.5       5.4
Burkina Faso               -1.0    -0.6   -1.7    9.5      0.5    4.0     2.7     1.4   -1.3     1.6    11.3    8.6    -1.4    6.6     0.9    -1.5   10.0    2.5    -0.8     1.2    3.8    6.2    5.5    5.6      1.4      5.8
Burundi                     1.0     7.9   12.4     1.2     1.3    -6.8   12.2    -1.1   3.7      0.2    11.8    3.2    5.5     5.0     1.3    3.5    5.0    0.7     -5.9    -3.7    -7.3   -8.4   4.4    4.5     -5.6     0.2
Cape Verde                 -16.9   2.1    -5.0     9.7     3.2    5.3     6.6    3.2    11.3     5.2     8.7    4.0    -5.2    4.0     1.8    -1.6   1.4     3.3    4.2     3.8     4.7    3.0    3.0    4.5     4.2      3.5
Central African Rep.        0.3     5.0    5.7    4.4      2.5    -3.0   13.0    -3.6   -6.0     9.9     3.7    4.2    -4.3     1.3    3.4    -1.7   -0.8   -2.5    -2.3    7.7     2.3    -2.8   4.6    4.9     2.6      2.2
Comoros                     6.6    0.3     4.0     3.0     9.6    7.4     5.5    4.1    3.1      4.2     2.7    1.9     1.6    2.7     -3.2   5.1    -5.4    8.5    3.0     -5.3    -3.9   -0.4   0.0    5.0     -2.0      1.5
Congo, Rep. of             -3.3    -0.1   -5.3     7.4    11.3    12.7   31.5    14.9   5.6      7.2    -1.2    -6.9   0.2      1.8    2.9    0.9    2.4    2.6     -1.0    -5.5    2.2    5.9    0.3    8.4     -1.4     4.9
Congo, Dem. Rep. of        -5.0    -5.3    0.8    -5.3     0.3    2.4     1.0    -0.5    1.4     4.8     0.5    4.7    2.7     0.5    -1.3    -6.6   -8.4   -10.5   -13.5   -3.9    0.7    0.9    -5.7   2.0     -5.6     -0.9
Djibouti                   4.2      8.5   -12.7    5.7     4.0    3.4     2.9     1.7    1.2     0.6    -0.2    -1.2   0.5      1.2   -2.6    -0.6   0.5    -0.2    -3.9    -2.9    -4.0   -5.1   1.0    0.3     -3.6     -1.3
Equatorial Guinea           6.6    0.3     7.3    -5.0    -5.0    4.8     5.8    2.2    5.0      1.0    2.0     -2.3   4.4     2.7     -1.2   3.3    -1.1   14.0    6.3     5.1     14.3   29.1   76.1   98.4    8.6      67.9
Eritrea                     ...     ...    ...     ...     ...    ...     ...     ...    ...     ...     ...     ...    ...     ...     ...   ...    ...     ...     ...     ...     ...    ...    ..     ...     ...      ...
Ethiopia                   0.1     2.3     0.6    -1.1     7.2    4.0     0.1    0.7    10.4    -5.8    -16.7   9.8    14.1    -0.1    1.5    2.7    -3.1   -3.7    12.0    1.7     5.4    10.6   5.3    2.8     6.4      6.2
Gabon                      6.9     39.4   -20.7   -27.5   -0.7    0.0    -4.0    4.1    2.0      4.9     5.8    -2.1   -15.4   3.5     7.0    5.2    6.1    -3.3    2.4     3.4     3.8    3.1    4.5    3.5     3.2      3.7
Ganmbia,The                4.6     10.3   12.8    -5.4    18.8    0.7    -9.5    20.8   13.5    -7.6    3.6     2.4    2.8     1.7     4.3    5.7    2.2    4.4     1.8     1.3     -4.0   3.1    2.1    5.3     -0.3     3.5
Ghana                      -11.9   -3.5    2.3     8.5    -2.5    0.5    -2.1    -7.6   -0.4    3.0      5.4    4.8    5.0     5.6     5.1    3.4    5.3    3.9     5.0     3.8     4.5    5.2    3.0    5.6     4.4      4.6
Guinea                     2.9     7.9    -3.4    6.8     -1.2    2.6     0.6    1.8    1.3      1.4     5.0    3.1    3.3     6.3     4.0    4.3    2.4    3.0     4.7     4.0     4.4    4.5    4.7    4.9     4.4      4.7
Guinea-Bissau              5.4     4.9    -7.2    37.0    -1.5    16.0   -0.5    4.2    -3.4    5.5     4.3     -1.0   5.6     2.0     2.9    4.6    5.1     1.1    2.1     3.2     4.4    4.6    5.1    4.9     3.2      4.9
Lesotho                    2.1     5.6    -30.4   24.7    -6.4    4.4     1.0    0.9    -6.0    9.6      2.0    3.2    8.8     7.6    10.1    3.3    2.5     1.8    7.2     10.2    9.3    12.5   7.2    5.3     8.9      8.3
Liberia                    -15.1   4.0    -0.8    4.7      3.3    -4.1 8.0       1.8    -3.4    -0.6    -2.0    -0.9   1.3     3.1    -10.8   0.3    2.9     1.9    2.2     2.2     2.7    2.7    2.7    2.7     2.4      2.7
Mauritius                   1.3    22.1    6.5    5.1      5.0    2.8    -7.4    5.5    6.1     0.8     5.7     9.2    11.4    8.6     5.7    4.7    6.4    4.8     6.7     4.3     3.4    4.7    5.6    5.3     4.8      5.2
Namibia                    2.2      1.5    0.0    2.9      3.8    6.6    -10.1   -1.6   -2.7    -0.6    0.5     4.3    3.3     0.2     1.9    0.0    5.7    7.4     -2.0    6.6     5.1    3.0    4.0    4.8     3.2      3.9
Nigeria                    0.2     10.8   -6.7    -6.7     2.6    2.9    -3.6    0.3    4.8     -7.1    22.8    -1.8   -4.0    9.4     8.5    7.5    6.0    2.6     2.2     1.1     3.1    4.6    5.A    2.7     2.1      4.1
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                                                                  74




Annex Table 3.10: Mapping Country Performance Rating (CPR) into Country Policy and
Institutional Assessment (CPIA)

                        CPR                                                  CPIA                                     Mapping
A. Macroeconomic        Stability               A. Macroeconomic       Mgmt. & Sustainability of Reforms
1. Inflation                                    1. General Macroeconomic      Performance                         CPRAI=CPIAAI
2. Debt Management                              2. Fiscal Policy                                                  CPRA2=CPIAA3

3. Fiscal Balance                               3. Management of External Debt                                    CPRA3=CPIAA2
4. External Balance                             4. Macroeconomic       Management Capacity                        CPRA4=CPIAA4
                                                5. Sustainability of Structural Reforms                               CPIAA5
B. Structural Reforms                           B. Policies for Sustainable and Equitable Growth
I. Trade/ExchangeSystems
1. Trade Policy                                 6. Trade Policy                                                   CPRBII=CPIAB6
2. Forex System                                 7. Foreign Exchange Regime                                        CPRB12=CPIAB7
11. Financial Sector                            8. Financial Stability and Depth
I. Stability and Development                    9. Banking Sector Efficiency and Resource Mobilization           CPRBIII=CPIAB8
2. Overall Efficiency & Resource Mobilization   10. Property Rights and Rule-based Govemance                     CPRB112=CPIAB9
11.   Competition Policy and Incentives         11. Competitive Environment for the Private Sector
1. Legal & Regulatory Framework                 12. Factor and Product Markets                                   CPRBIIII=CPIABIO
2. Marketing                                    13. Environmental Policies and Regulations                  CPRB1112+CPRBIV3=CPIABI     I
3. Product Market Policies                                                                                  CPRBIII3+CPRBI114=CPIAB12
4. Factor Markets


IV. Public Enterprises/Privatization
1. Budgetary Effects & Special Privileges                                                                   CPRBIVI+CPRBIV2=CPIAD17
2. Management                                   C. Policies for Reducing Inequalities
3. Privatization   Strategy                     14. Poverty Monitoring and Analysis
                                                15. Pro-poor Targeting of Programs
V. Public Finances! Civil Administration        16. Safety Nets
I. Tax Reformn                                                                                                   CPRBVI=CPIAD18
2. Volume & Composition of Expenditure          D. Public Sector Management                                  CPRBV2+CPRBV3=CPIADI9
3. Public Expenditure Management                17. Quality of Budget and Public Investment Process
4. Civil Administration                         18. Efficiency and Equity of Revenue Mobilization                CPRBV4=CPIAD20
                                                19. Efficiency and Equity of Public Expenditures
VI. Social Sector/ Safety Net                   20. Accountability of the Public Service
1. Strategies                                                                                                   CPRBVII=CPIACI5
2. Safety Nets                                                                                                  CPRBVI2=CPIAC16


VII. Poverty/Analysis/Monitoinx                                                                                  CPRBVII=CPIAC14
VIII. Environment
1. Strategy                                                                                                CPRBVIIII +CPRBVII12=CPIAB 13
2. Impact Assessments


C. Rescaled Portfolio                                                                                                  CPRC
                                                    75




Annex Table 3.11: Definitions and Sources of InstitutionalMeasures

The nine indices of governance/institutionsdiscussed in this section are:

*   Government stability is a measure both of the government's ability to carry out its declared programs
    and of its ability to stay in office. Ratings are from 0 to 12: 0= the highest potential instability, 12=
    the lowest.
*   Government ineffectiveness is measured by the quality of governmentpersonnel. Ratings are on a
    scale of 0 to 100: 0+ the most effective government; 100= the least effective.
*   Quality of the bureaucracy measures the bureaucracy's institutional strength and quality. Factors
    reflected in the rating include whether the bureaucracyhas the strength and expertise to govern without
    drastic changes in policy or interruption in government services,how autonomous it is from political
    pressure, and whether there is an established mechanism for recruitment and training. Ratings are
    from 0 to 4, with 0 indicating poor quality.
*   Democratic accountability is a measure of the govermnent's responsivenessto its people. Ratings
    are from 0 to 6, with 0 indicating the least responsiveness.
*   Civil liberties measure the degree to which there is freedom of assembly, freedom of political
    organization, protection from political terror and exile, free religious institutions, and personal social
    freedoms. Ratings are from I to 7, with 1 representing the most freedom and 7 the least.
*   Freedom of press measures how freely information is allowed to flow to and from the public. Ratings
    range from 0 to 100: 0-30= free press; 31-60= partly free; 61-100= not free.
*   Law and order measure the strength and impartiality of the legal system and popular observance of
    the law. The two are assessed separately. Ratings are from 0 to 6, with 0 indicating a low assessment.
*   Corruption in government measures corruption in the political system. Ratings are from 0 to 6, with
    0 indicating higher corruption.
*   Protection of property rights measures the extent to which the govermnentprotects private property
    and to which private property is safe from expropriation. Scores range from 1 to 5: 1= the most secure
    property rights; 5= the least secure.

The sources of these measures are:
* Government stability, quality of the bureaucracy, democratic accountability, law and order tradition
    and corruption in government, International CountryRisk Guide;
* Government ineffectiveness, Global Risk Service (Standard and Poor);
* Civil liberties and freedom of press, Freedom in the World (Freedom House).
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Annex Table 3.12 (I of 2)


Annex Table 3.12: Governance/lastitutional                           Indicators, 1998
                            Government           Government             Qualityof the        Democratic                                               Latvand order               in
                                                                                                                                                                         Corruption         Protectionofproperty
                             Stability          Ineffectiveness         bureaucracy         accountability     CivilLiberties     Freedomof press       tradition         government               rights
                            Scaleofl-12        ScaleofOto 100            ScaleofOto4        ScaleofOto6         Scaleof Ito7      Scaleofi to 100     ScaleofOto6        ScaleofOto6            Scaleofi to5
                           (O is high risk)   (O ismost effective)     (Ois poor quality)   (O is high risk)   (I is most free)    (O is most free)   (O is high risk)   (O is high risk)     (I is most secure)
HIAL countries
Cameroon                        11.0                 83.0                     1.0                2.0                 5.0                77.0                3.0                2.0                   4.0
Chad                                                                                                                 5.0                70.0                                                         4.0
Cote D'ivoire                   9.0                  58.0                     2.0                3.0                 5.0                74.0                3.0                2.0                   4.0
Kenya                           10.0                 81.0                     2.0                3.0                 6.0                63.0                2.0                2.0                   3.0
Madagascar                      10.0                                          1.0                5.0                 4.0                32.0                3.0                4.0                   3.0
Malawi                          10.0                                          2.0                4.0                 3.0                40.0                4.0                3.0                   3.0
Mali                            11.0                                          0.0                3.0                 2.0                30.0                3.0                2.0                   3.0
Mauritania                                                                                                           6.0                71.0                                                         4.0
Mozambique                       10.0                                         0.0                 3.0                4.0                48.0                3.0                4.0                   4.0
Niger                            10.0                                         1.0                 2.0                5.0                63.0                2.0                0.0                   3.0
Tanzania                         10.0                81.0                     1.0                 4.0                5.0                40.0                5.0                2.0                   3.0
Uganda                           10.0                65.0                     2.0                 2.0                4.0                40.0                4.0                2.0                   2.0
Zambia                           10.0                72.0                     1.0                 4.0                4.0                60.0                4.0                3.0                   3.0
Non-HIAL SSA countries
Angola                           11.0                85.0                     1.0                 3.0                6.0                74.0                3.0                2.0                   4.0
Benin                                                 ,,                       ,,                  ,,                2.0                30.0
Botswana                         11.0                35.0                     2.0                 3.0                2.0                30.0                4.0                3.0                   2.0
Burkina Paso                     11.0                                         1.0                 4.0                4.0                39.0                4,0                2.0                   3.0
Bumndi                                                                                                               7.0                85.0
Cape Verde                       na                   na                       na                 na                 na                  na                 na                 na                     na
Central African Republic                                                                                             5.0                60.0
Comoros                           na                  na                      na                  na                 na                  na                 na                 na                    na
Congo, Rep.                      10.0                                         1.0                 1.0                4.0                72.0                1.0                4.0                   4.0
Congo, Denm  Rep                 7.0                 100.0                    0.0                 1.0                6.0                84.0                1.0                1.0                   5.0
Djibouti                         na                   na                      na                  na                 na                  na                 na                 na                    na
Equatorial Guinea                 na                  na                      na                  na                 na                  na                 na                 na                    na
Eritea                                                                                                               4.0                69.0
Ethopia                          11.0                                         1.0                 4.0                5.0                62.0                5.0                2.0                   4.0
Gabon                            9.0                                          2.0                 3.0                4.0                50.0                3.0                1.0                   3.0
Gambia                           11.0                                         2.0                 3.0                6.0                65.0                5.0                3.0                   2.0
Ghana                            11.0                82.0                     2.0                 2.0                4.0                60.0                3.0                2.0                   3.0
Guinea                           10.0                                         2.0                 2.0                5.0                69.0                3.0                3.0                   4.0
Guinea-Buisseau                  10.0                                         1.0                 1.0                4.0                57.0                1.0                2.0                   5.0
Lesotho                                                                                                              4.0                58.0                                                         3.0
Liberia                           na                   na                      na                 na                 na                  na                 na                 na                     na
Mauritus                                                                                                             2.0                20.0                                                         2.0
Namibia                          11.0                                         2.0                 4.0                3.0                30.0                6.0                3.0                   2.0
Nigeria                          11.0                90.0                     0.0                 3.0                6.0                93.0                3.0                1.0                   3.0
Rwanda                                                                                                               6.0                71.0                                                         5.0
Sao Tome & Princip                na                  na                      na                  na                 na                  na                 Ila                na                    na
Senegal                          10.0                                         1.0                 4,0                4.0                33.0                3.0                3.0                   3.0
Seychelles                       na                   na                      na                  na                 na                  na                 na                 na                    na
Sierra Leone                     10.0                                         0.0                 0.0                5.0                80.0                3.0                3.0                   4.0
Somalia                           na                  na                      na                  na                 na                  na                 na                 na                    na
South Africa                     11.0                85.0                     2.0                 4.0                2.0                28.0                3.0                3.0                   3.0
Sudan                            11.0                                         1.0                 1.0                7.0                85.0                2.0                1.0                   4.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Annex Table 3.12 (2 of 2)


Annex Table 3.12: Governance/institutional                                Indicators, 1998
                             Government                Government            Qualit ofthe            Democratic                                                      Liov and order     Corruption in     Protection ofproperty
                              S/ability               Ineffectiveness        bureaucracy           accountability         Ci vi Liberties    Freedom of press           tradition       government                rights
                            Scaleofl-12              Scale ofOtolOO         ScaleofOto4             ScaleofOto6           Scaleofi to7       Scaleof Ito lOI         ScaleofOto6        ScaleofOto6           Scaleofi to 5
                           (O is high risk)        (Ois most effective)    (O is poor quality)     (0 is high risk)      (I is most free)     (Ois most free)        (O is high risk)   (O ishigh risk)     (I is most secure)
Swaziland                         na                        na                     na                     na                     na                 no                      na                 na                   na
Togo                              10.0                                             0.0                    2.0                   5.0                73.0                     3.0               2.0                   4.0
Zimbabwe                          8.0                     88.0                     2.0                    2.0                   5.0                61.0                     4.0               2.0                   4.0
Non-SSA, adjusting countries
Bolivia                           8.0                     44.0                     2.0                   4.0                   3.0                  18.0                   3.0                3.0                  3.0
Cambodia                                                                                                                                            65.0                                                           4.0
Hcnduras                         11.0                                              2.0                    4.0                  3.0                  47.0                   2.0                2.0                  3.0
Lao Peoples                                                                                                                    6.0                  66.0                                                           5.0
Mongolia                          6.0                                              2.0                    6.0                  3.0                  34.0                   4.0                4.0                  3.0
Tajikistan                                                92.0                                                                 7.0                  94.0                                                           4.0
Yemen, Rep                       10.0                                              1.0                   4.0                   6.0                  68.0                   3.0                3.0                  4.0
Non-SSA, non-adjusting countries
Afghanistan                       na                       na                      na                    na                    na                    na                    na                 na                   na
Albania                          9.0                      95.0                     1.0                   5.0                   4.0                  56.0                   3.0                3.0                  4.0
Bangladesh                       9.0                      65.0                     2.0                   5.0                   4.0                  57.0                   3.0                2.0                  4.0
Bhutan                            na                       na                      na                    na                    na                    na                    na                 na                   na
Guyana                            na                       na                      na                    na                    na                    na                    na                 na                   na
Haiti                            5.0                                               0.0                   2.0                   5.0                  59.0                   2.0                2.0                  5.0
Kiribati                          na                       na                      na                    na                    na                    na                    na                 na                   na
Maldives                          na                       na                      na                     na                   na                    na                    na                 na                   na
Mynamar                          11.0                     85.0                     1.0                   0.0                   7.0                  99.0                   3.0                1.0                  4.0
Nepal                                                                                                                          4.0                  59.0                                                           3.0
Nicaragua                        9.0                                               1.0                    6.0                  3.0                  40.0                   4.0                4.0                  4.0
Samoa                             na                       na                      na                     na                   na                    na                    na                 na                   na
Solomon Islands                   na                       na                      na                     na                   na                    na                    na                 na                   na
Sri Lanka                        9.0                      61.0                     2.0                    5.0                  5.0                  50.0                   3.0                4.0                  3.0
Tonga                             na                       na                      na                     na                   na                    na                    na                 na                   na
Vanuatu                           no                       na                      na                     na                   na                    na                    na                 na                   na
Vietnam                          9.0                      70.0                     2.0                    0.0                  7.0                  71.0                   5.0                2.0                  5.0


Sources: (I) Govemment stability, quality of the bureaucracy. democratic accountabiiity, law and order tradition and corruption in government, International Country Risk Guide;
 (2) Govemment ineffectiveness, Global Risk Service (Standard and Poor); (3) Civil liberties and freedom of press, Freedom in the World (Freedom House); and
(4) Protection of property rights, 1999 Index of Economic Freedom (Heritage/Wall Street Joumal).
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Annex Table 3.14: Government Total Expenditure on Education (as percentage of GDP), 1975-98
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Period Average
                                        1975        1976              1977                    1978                      1979           1980           1981 1982              1983     1984                  1985         1986           1987      1988        1989       1990        1991              1992      1993        1994    1995           1996               1997              1998           1993-95     1996-97
FY96-97 HIAL countries
                                         3.6                                          -                    -                  -          3.2              3.0         3.5     3.2              -             2.8              2.9        2.7           2.6     3.3        2.9            3.0            3.0          1.5      0.9         1.6                 -                  -              -            1.4
Cameroon
                                                                                                                                            -                           -        -                     --                                   ---                                          1.7               -            -     1.3         1.1                                    -              -            1.2              -
Chad-----
                                                                                                                                         6.9                 -          -        -       -                     -                -          -            -        -         -             7.0            6.8          6.9      5.2         4.7           4.6              4.6                                 5.6         4.6
Cote d'lvoire                            6.2                                          -                    -                  -
                                         6.0                                          -                        -              -          6.5              6.4         6.1     4.7      5.3                   6.1                    -    6.8           6.2        -       6.7            6.3            6.1          6.1      5.9         6.3           6.0              6.5                    -            6.1         6.2
Kenya
                                                                                                                                         4.3              3.8         3.2     2.7      2.9                   2.8                    -    1.8           1.7     1.6        1.5                              -         1.6      3.1         2.1           2.4              2.0               2.3               2.3         2.2
Madagascar                               2.5                                          -                    -                  -
                                                                                                                                         3.1              3.5         2.9     3.7      3.3                   3.2              3.5        3.3              -       -          -            -                -            -     9.0         4.5           2.8              2.8                                 6.7         2.8
Malawi                                   2.5                                          -                    -                  -
                                           -                                                                                             3.6              3.8         3.5        -     2.8                   3.6              2.6        3.2           3.4     2.9        3.2           3.4             3.2          2.1         -        2.1              -                -                   -            2.1               -
Mali
                                                         -                        -                        -                   -              -              -          -        -        -                      -               -           -            -       -          -         4.1              4.2          4.3      4.6            -                -                  -              -            4.5
Mauritania-
                                                                                                                                         4.4              4.6         5.0     5.5      5.3                   4.0              4.3        2.7           4.0     4.5        5.4         -                 -              --                                ---                                                                   -
Mozambique                                 -
                                                                                      -                        -               -         3.1                 -          -        -       -                     -                 -           -            -    2.9        4.5          3.9              4.4          4.3      3.9         3.6           2.4              2.9               2.8               4.0         2.6
Niger                                    2.3
                                                                                              --                                                                                                   -                            -        4.4           2.8     2.5        3.2             -                -            -        -        3.0           2.5                -                  -              3.0         2.5
Tanzania     -              -               -
                                                                                                                                         1.2              2.5         1.7      2.4     3.4                           -                   5.1              -    1.4        1.5           1.9                  -           -    2.2         2.2           2.4              2.7                    -            2.2         2.6
Uganda                                   2.7                                          -                        -              -
                                         6.4         5.9                      5.5                  4.8                   4.3             4.1              4.3         6.0      5.4     5.1                   4.1              3.3        2.8           2.3     2.0        2.2           2.8             2.1          2.0      2.4         2.4           2.4                      -            -              2.2         2.4
Zambia
                                                     5.9                      5.5                  4.8                   4.3             4.1              4.0         4.0      3.9     4.0                   3.8              3.3        3.6           3.3     2.6        3.4          3.8              4.3          3.6      3.9         3.1           3.2              3.6               2.5               3.4         3.2
Average                                  4.0
Non-HIAL SSA countries
                                                                                      ----                                                            -                  -        -                          4.7              6.8        5.8              -          -    3.9--                                                                           -                      -                  -          -               -
Angola-
                                                                                                                                         4.2                 -           -       -       -                     --               --        -                                          -                  2.8          2.9      2.8         2.7            2.0                     -              -            2.8          2.0
Benin                                    3.9                                                                                  -
                                         6.8                                          -                        -              -          5.7              5.4         6.1      5.9     6.2                   5.7              6.3        6.8           6.6     6.2        6.7            7.4            7.3          8.4      7.8         8.5           10.1                     -              -            8.2         10.1
Botswana
                                         1.8                 -                                                                -          2.2              2.2         2.2      2.4     2.1                   2.0              2.1        2.5           3.0     2.7        3.5            3.1            3.3          3.2      3.2         3.2            3.0             3.2                    -            3.2          3.1
Burkina Faso                                                                                                   -

                                                             -                    -                        -              -                 -             3.4           -         -       -                  2.5              2.9        3.1           3.2        -       3.4            3.5            3.8             -     4.0         4.1            3.1                -                   -            4.0          3.1
Burundi                                  2.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 -       2.9              -       -          -           4.4--                                   -                ---                                                                -
Cape Verde-            -        -          -
                                         4.8                 -                        -                    -               -                 -              -          -        -          -                     -            2.5        2.5           2.2     2.1        2.2            2.2                 -          -     1.6         1.5                 -                  -              -            1.6
Central African Republic
Comoros--                                                            ---                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     -                        ----
                                         7.8                                          -                        -              -          6.4              5.7         5.0       5.3    4.6                      -                -         -              -    5.1        5.0            7.4            8.3          7.8       6.4        4.9                 -                  -              -            6.4
Congo
                                                                                                                                                          2.8         3.1       1.4    0.8                   0.9              0.8        1.0           0.9                       -               -               -            -            -              -                          -              -          -               -      "D
Congo, D.R.                                -                                                                                             2.5
                                                                                              ---                                                                            ----                                                                 --                                                                                       -
Djibouti--
                                         -           -                                -                         -                  -              -              -            -        -                     -                 -           -           1.6                   -              -             -          1.7         -           -                    -                      -1.7                                  -
Equatorial Guinea
                                                                 -                        -                         -                  ---                                                                                                                -                                             1.7          2.6      2.2         2.9           2.8              5.1                    -            2.6         3.9
Eritrea--
                                           -                                  -                            -                      -                       2.8         3.1      3.0     3.2                   2.9           2.9           2.8           2.9     2.9        2.8            2.6            3.1          3.3      3.8         3.7           3.7              3.8                    -            3.6         3.8
Ethiopia
                                                                                      -                     -                 -          2.5                 -          -         -    3.8                   5.0           6.5           5.2              -       -       3.1               -             -             -     2.4         2.4              -                -                   -            2.4            -
Gabon                                    1.9
                                                                                                                                         3.2              5.2           -      4.6     4.3                   3.5              -             -          3.0        -       3.8            2.5              -          5.0      5.3         5.5           4.8                 -                   -            5.3         4.8
Gambia, The                              3.4                                          -                        -              -
                                         5.8                                          -                    -                  -          1.8              1.9         2.1        -     1.5                   2.5           3.4           3.3           3,2     3.4        3.4            3.2            4.2          4.9      4.8         4.6           5.2              4.2               3.8               4.8         4.7
Ghana
                                           -                                                                                  -             -               -           -                                                 0.8            1.3           1.7        -       1.7            3.1            2.7          2.6      2.0             -             -               -                 -              2.3                  -
Guinea-
                                           -                          -                            -                                                                         18.0              -            12.5              -          2.6           2.2     1.7        1.5            1.5            1.5          0.9      1.0            -                -                  -              -            0.9
Guinea-Bissau
                                         8.1                                                               -                  -          8.7
                                                                                                                                         8                  -        12.6      7.1     7.6                   8.3                    -    7.9           6.5      6.2       6.1        10.3              10.9          8.5     10.1         8.7                 .                  -              -            9.1
Lesotho
Liberia                                     -                                                                                            5.5---                                           --                                                                   -----                                                                 --                                                             -

                                         3.6                                                                                  -          5.2              4.8        4.6      4.2      4.1                   3.6              3.2        3.3           3.6      3.3       3.5            3.8            3.7          4.1      4.2            -                -                  -              -            4.2
Mauritius
                                                                          -                            -                      -             -                -       1.5          -       -                     -                           -             -                  -           9.5            9.9          9.7      9.2         8.7           9.4                      -              -            9.2          9.4
Namibia-
                                            -                                                                                              -              6.2        2.0      1.8      1.4                   1.1              1.2        0.4           1.2     1.5         1.1           0.5            0.4          1.0         -           -             -                             -1.0                                     -
Nigeria    --
                                         2.3                                          -                    -                  -          2.7              4.5        3.9      3.2      3.1                   3.0              3.6        3.5           3.4     3.7           -               -                          -        -           -          3.3              3.6                    -               -         3.5
Rwanda
                                                -                                                                                          -              8.5        6.3          -                             -             4.0           -             -       -          -           2.7            2.6          2.4      1.3         1.2           3.2                      -              -            1.6          3.2
Sao Tome and Principe-              -
                                                      -                           -                            -                           -                 -          -        -         -                    -                -       4.0           3.9     4.3        3.9            7.2            6.6          6.3      5.8         5.7           5.8              5.2                    -            6.0          5.5
Senegal-
                                         4.4                                          -                    -                  -          5.6                 -       9.1         -    12.0                  10.3              9.8           -          8.4     8.2           -              -           8.0             -     9.0         7.6              -                -                   -            8.3                  -
Seychelles
Sierra Leone                             3.3                                          -                        -              -          3.4              4.1        4.0      3.4      3.0                   3.0              2.3        1.7           2.2      2.8       3.0            3.2            1.5
                                         1.9         2.3                   2.0                     2.0                   2.1             1.1              1.2        1.0      1.0      0.6                   0.4              0.4        0.3           0.2     -          -                      --                                                                          -
Somalia
                                            -           -                                 -                         -                   -                  -            -        -        -                     -             5.7        5.8           5.3      5.2       5.6            5.9            6.5          6.8      6.9         7.2              -                     -              -            7.0               -
South Africa
                                            -                                                                                            4.2--                          -                                                --                                                      -               ---                             -         -            0.8                      .                             -          0.8
Sudan
                                                                                                                                         6.4           6.4            5.4        -        -                  6.1           5.8           5.6        5.7        5.3        5.8         7.3               7.6          7.3      7.3      6.7              6,4                      -              -             7.1        6.4
Swaziland                                3.7                                          -                    -                  -
                                         3.5                                          -                    -                  -          5.4           5.9            5.5     5.5      5.4                   4.6           4.6           4.7        5.0        5.3        5.6         5.6               5.2          2.8      5.3      4.3              4.9              4.7                    -             4.1        4.8
Togo
Zimbabwe                                 2.8                 -                                             -                             5.2              -           5.5     5.7      5.9                   6.2           7.0           7.4        6.8        5.9        7.7         6.5                    -       6.9         -     6.3                                                                    66
                                                    2.3               2.0                      2.0                      2.1             4.3           4.4            4.6     4.8      4.1                   4.4           3.9           3.7        3.6        4.2        4.0         4.7               4.8           4.7     4.8      5.0               4.6             4.2               3.8                4.6         4.6
Average                                 4.0


Source: Africa Region Social ErpenditaureDatabase, Mark 1.
                                                                                    80



                 Anney. Table 3.15: Life Expectancy at Birth, t990-97                            Annex Table 3.W Infant Mortality    Rate (per thousand births), 1990-97
                            1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996               1997                                  199t) 1991       1992    1993    1994 1995 1996       1997
FY96-97  HIALe trits                                                                     FY96-97  HIAL rmmtd.
c,amemon                    55,0          56.1                  56.3 56.4    56.5        Cj-mm                       66.2             61.0                    55.7     54.0     52.2
Chad                        46.2          46.7                  47.8 48.2    49.6        ch.d                       127.0            123.0                   117.0    115.0   113.0
Cott d'fvoie                $5.2          550                   54.2 53.9    53.6        Cotedl-ke                   91.0             89.0                    85.5     84.4     83.2
K-Y.                        58.5          58.9                  58.4  58.3   58.1        Key.                        61.8             61.0                    58.0     57.0     56.0
Madagasur                   55.5          56.5                  57.7 58.1    58.5        Mdagsc.,                   101.2             93.0                    89.0     87.7     $6.4
M.1awi                      44.6          44.5                  43.5 43.1    418         MajaM                      135.4            134.3                   133.2    132.9   132.5
Mali                        47,6          48.4                  496   50,0   50A         Mali                       135.6            130O            123,0   121-3    119,7   t MO
Ma..itania                  50.7          51.5                  52.7 53.1    53.5        Mauritania                 104.6            101.0                    95.6     93.8     92.0
Mo..,biq.e                  43.4          43.4                  446   45.1   45.5        Mo..biq.e                  138.0            134.0                   1256     122.8   120O
Niga                        45.5          46.1                  46.6 46.9    46.9        Niger                      129.4            124.0                   119.2    117.6   116.0
Tanzania                    51.6          52.0                  50.9 50.5    50 1        Tomeri.                     98.7             93.0            STS     96.7     85.9     85.0
Ug..da                      46.8          45.7                  43.8 43.1    42.5        Uganda                     104.4             97.0              ..    98.2     98.6     99.0
Zambia                      49.1          0.9                   45.6 44.5    43.4        Zambia                     107.3            1139.0          109.0   110.3    111.7   113.0
No.HIAL SSAcoma,J,s                                                                      No.-HIALSSAcoma,its
Angola                      45.5          46.5                  46.5 46.5    46.5        A.gia                      129.2            124.0                   124.0    124.0   124.0
B.in                        53.0          53.7                  54.3 545     547         Be.i.                      104.4             98.0           94.0     90.7     87.3    84.0
Botswana                    56.8          54.1                  51.8 51.0    50.3        B06vam                      55.8             55.0                    55.6     55.8    56.0
BurkimFase                  45.8          46.5                  46.2 46.1    46.0        Buki.a Fast,               105.4            103.0                    99.4     99.2    97.0
Btmradi                     46.0          44.5                  46.1 46.6    47.1        Bundi                      106.4            102.0                    98.4     97.2    96.0
Cem,alAfrim Repblic         48.3          48.3                  48.5 48.6    48.6        Central Affica.Repblie     101.2            100.0           97.0     96.7     96.3    96.0
cowros                      56.0          57.5                  58.9 59.3    59.8        Comoros                     82.2             77.0                    69.9     67.4    65.0
Congo, Om. Rep,             51.8          52.0                  52.5 52-7    52-9        Congo,Dem.Rep               97.0             95-0                    91A      902     89-0
Cb.go,Rep.                  51.7          51.4                  51.1 51.0    50.9        Corgo,Rep.                  87.4             89.0                    89.6     89.8    90.0
Djibouti                    47.8          483                   49.5 499     50.3        Djib.ti                    117.8            I 1S.0                  109.6    107.9   106.0
Eq.t.rial Gum.              47.2          48.0                  49.2 49.6    50.0        N-rod.) G.i.ea             121.0            117.0                   111.0    109.0   107.0
Eritrea                     51.3          53.0                  54.2 54.6    55.0        E61e.                       81.4             71.9                    66.0     64.0    62.0
Ethiopia                    465           47.5                  490   49.5   50.0        Ethipi.                    124.2            119.0                   111A     109.4   107.0
Gabon                       52,7          53.5                  54.4 54.7    55.0        Gabon                       97.6             94.0                    88.6     86.8    850
Gambia,  The                49.3          50.8                  52.2 52.7    53.2        Gambia, The                108.6             97.0                    80.0     79.0    78.0
Guiaea-Bissa.               423           42.9                  43.4 43.6    43.9        Gioea-Bissu                W45.0            141.0                   135.6    133.9   132.0
Lmotho                      57.2          57.7                  58.2 58.4    58.6        Lesotho                     84.6             81.0                    75.6     73.8    72.0
Liberia                     45.1          39.5                  46.7 49.1    51.5        Liberia                    176.8            200.0                   171.8    )62.4   153.0
Mauritius                   69.6          70.2                  71.0 71.3    71.6        Ma.dtijs                    20-4              18.0                   19,6     17.3    15.0
Nambia                      i6.0          55.9                  55.7 55.7    55.6        Namibia                     65.6             64.0                    61.6     60.8    60.0
NigeTi.                     49.5          50.3                  52.2 52.9    53.5        Nigfi.                      85.2             84.0                    79.8     78.4    77.0
Ra.da                       39.5          34.8                  39.2 40.6    42.1        Rwanda                     133.6            144.0                   132.6    128.8   125.0
S- Tom and Ftfiripe         62.2          63.0                  63.6 63.8    64.0        S.. Tme andPrincipe         60.9              52.0                   508      50.4    50.0
Sey.helles                  70.3          70.7                  71.1 71.3    71.4        Sryrhcllc                   17.1              162                    19.3     17.6    17.0
Siena,Lmne                  35.3          34.4                  36.3 36,9    37.5        Skna Lwc                   189.0            195.0                   179.4    174.2   169.0
Somalia                     46.2          47.0                  48.2 48.6    49.0        S.-lin                     132.0            132.0                   128.3    127.0   125.8
SouthMika                   61.9          62.9                  64.3 64.8    65.2        Soar, Affia                 55.0              53.0                   50.0     49k     48.0
Suda.                       31.0          51.0                  53.4 54.2    55.0        Sudan                       85.0              85.0                   76.6     73.8    7LO
Swuila.d                     56            57                    57    57     57         Swaii..d                    79.8              75.0                   69.0     67.0    65.0
Togo                        51.6          51.0                  505   50,3   SOA         Top                         92.6             91.0                    89-0     87.0    86-0
Zimbabwe                    60.8          59.13                 57.1 56.2    55.4        Zimbabwe                    58.3              52.8                   55.3     56.1    56.9
No.-SSAcownries                                                                          No.-SSAou.tks
Afghanistan                 42.7          43.5                  44.7 45.1    45.5        Afghanistan                t66.6            163.0                   157.6    155.9   154.0
Albania                     72.3          71.3   71.3 72.5 72.1       7J.7   71.3        Alba.ia                     28.3  32.9       30.9    33.2   43.2     39.9     36.5    312
Bangladesh                  55.3          56.6                  57.7  58.0   58A         Bangladesh                  95.1             85.1                    78.8     76.7    74.6
Molar,                        -           50.7                  52.2  52.7   53.2        Ithatan                                     117.0                   109.2    W6.6    104.0
13.1M.                      58.3          59.3                  60.6  61.0   61.5        B01M.                       81.0             75.0                    69.0     67.0    65.0
Cambod.                     50.5          51.5                  53.0  53,5   54.0        C=bodi.                    121.6            116.0                   107.6    104.8   102.0
G.Y.3                       62.7          63.0                  63.9  64A    64.4        Guya..                      64.2             63,0                    60.0     59.0    59.0
Mid                         55.8          56.6                  55.6  552    54.9        Hiti                        84.8             74,0                    72.3     71-7    71.1
H,mdum                      65.6          65.9                  66.6  66.9   67.1        Hoadwas                     5(.0             49,0                    45.4     44.2    43,0
Kiribati                    56.8          58.2                  59.4  59.9   60.4        Kiribati                    65.0             65.0                    67.0     63.5    60.0
Lao PDR                     50 0          51.0                  52.5  53.0   53.5        LaoPDR                     108.2            107.0                   104.0    101.0    98.0
Maldi-                      61.1          62.1                  63.7 64.2    64,7        MAdives                     68.11            60.0                    51.6     48.8    46.0
Mongoli.                    62.7          63.6                  64.9  65.3   65.8        Mongolia                    62.6             59,0                    54.8     53.4    52.0
My.nmar                     56.6          57.6                  59.1  59.6   6&1         my.am.,                     95.2             90.0                    82.8     80.4    79.0
Npal                        53,6          54.6                  56.3  56.8   57.4        Nql                        101.2             96.0                    87.6     84.8    92.0
Nieatagu.                   60            66.0                  67.3  67.7   68.1        Nk..gu.                     59.6             52.0                    45.8     43.8    41.7
Sama                        66.3          67.5                  68.6 68.9    69.3        Samoa                       27.0             25.0                    23.2     22.6    22.0
Salomon  Islands            61.7          61.9                  62.5  617    62.9        Soloman  Isbnds             47.5             418                     405      39.4    38.3
Sli La."                    71.4          71.9                  72.6  72.9   73.1        SHL.nka                     18.5             17.6                    i 6.5    15.4    14.2
Tajikistan                   69.3 70.3    68.2                  68.6 68.8    68.9        Tojikistan                  40.7 40.6        45.9    47.0    40.6    30.9     31.8
Tonga                       68.8          70.0                  11.2  71-6   72-0        T-g.                        23.4             21.0      -        -    15,6     13.9    110
vanu.t.                     61.3          62.7                  63.9  64.2   64.6        Va... m                     56.2             47.0                    41.0     39.0    37.0
vietram                      66.6         67.1                  67.7  68.0   68.2        viet...                     45.2             44.0                    40.9     39.9    38.9
Yem", Rep.                   52.2         52.6                  53.6  54.0   54.3        Yem.., Rep.                iog.6            106.0                    99.8     97.8    95.7

S.-   World                   NVotld
           Dvelpmc.t J.dicamrs,    B..k,                                                        W.,IdDvlop.ctIdiumn.WorldRank.
                                                                                                            81



  Annex Table 3.11: Gross Secondary School Enrollment (%) , 1990-96                                                  Annex Table 3.18: Adult Illiteracy Rate (% of people 15 + yrs), 1990-97
                                       1990    1991          199?        1993      1994      1995   1996                                          1990          1991          1992        1993           1994    1995    1996   1997
FY96-97 HL&. countries                                                                                           FY96-9'7 ttIAL countries
Chad                                   8.0                               8.0        90       10.0   10.0         Catmeroon                        45.9.                  ..                                      36.6
Cote d1voire                           22.0                              23.0       23.0     23.0   24.0         Chad                             70.2.                ..                                        51.9
Ghana                                  37.0    37.0                                                              Cote divoire         .      ..                                           .59                       9
Madagascar                             17.0    15.0          15.0        14.0       13.0     13.0   13.0         Kenya                                                                                           21.9
Malawsi                                 8.0                              I1,0       13.0     16.0   16.0         Madagascar       .         ..                                            .54.3
Mali                                   6.0                               80          90       -Malawi                                                                                                            43.6
Mozaynbique                             8.0                   ..         7.          7.0     7.0     7.0         Mauiitania                                                     .           ..                   62.3
Niger                                   7.0                   6.0         6.0        7.0     7.0     7.0         Mozainbique                      67.1.                  ..                                      59.9
Tanzania                               5.0                               5.0         5.0     5.0     5.0         Niger                                                                                           86.4
Uganda                                 13.0                  12.0        11.0       11.0     12.0   12.0         Senegal                                                                                         66.9
Zambhia                                24.0                  26.0                   28.0                         Tanzania                                                                                        32.2
Nun-HIAL SSA countries                                                                                           Zambia                           27.2.                  ..                                      21.8
Angola                                 12.0    14.0                 ..                                           Non-HIAL SSA countries
Burkina Faso                            7.0                   8.0         8.0                                    Beain                            76.6            ..           72.5                              63.0
Congo, Den,. Rep.                                            22.0        24.0       26.0                         Central African Repablic         62.3.                  ..                                      40.0
Dbi'bouti                              12.0                              12.0       13.0     13.0   14.0         Congo, Den,. Rep..                        ..                                                    22 7
Equatorial Guinea         ....                                                                 -Congo.                     Rep.                   43.4.                  ..                                      25.1
Ethiopia                               14.0                  11.0        11.0       11.0     11.0    11.0        Fquatorial Guinea                49.8..                                         .               21 5
Gahon                                                                                                            Eritrea
Guinea-Bisasau..Gabon                                                                                                                             39.3.                  ..                                      36.8
Liberia             ...                                                                                          Guinca-Bissau                    63.5.                  ..                                      45 1
Narnibia                               44.0                              59.0       63.0     62.0   61.0         Liberia                          60.5.                  ..                                      61.7
Nigeria                                23.0                  26.0        29.0       30.0                         Mauritius                        20.1.                  ..                                      17.1
Sao Tome and Principe            ...                                                                             Nigeria                          49.3.                  ..                                      42.9
Sudan                                  23.0    21.0            ..        13 0        13.0    19.0   20.0         Somalia                          75.9
Swaziland                              44.0                  53.0        51.0       51.0     66.0   52.0         SouthAfrica                      17.8           17.8.                .              .           18.2
Togo                                   23.0                              25.0       23.0     27.0   27.0         Sudan                            72.9.                  ..                                      53.9
Zimbabwe                               49.0                              44.0       45.0     47.0   48.0         Swaziland                          -23,3
Non-SSA countries                                                                                                Togo                             56.7.                  ..                                      48.3
Afghanistan                             9.0                               15.0      22.0     22.0   22.0         Zimbabwe                         33.1.                  ..                                       14.9
Albania                                78.0                              40.0        37.0    35.0    33.0        Non-SSA countries
Bangladesh                             21.0            ...                                                       Afghanistans                     70.6.                  ..                                      68.5
Bhutan                                                                                                           Albania
Iutai                                  22.0            ..                                                        Camnbodia                        64.8                                     34.7           34.7   347
Honduras                                 ..    33.0            ..        32.0                                    Guyana                            3.6.                  ..                                       1.9
Mongolia                               82.0     ..                       59.0        59.0    59.0    56.0        Lao PDR                                                                                         43.4
Nepal                                  33.0    35.0           37.0       38.0                                    Mongolia                                                                                        17.1
SoloOsonIslands                        14.0                   16.0       17.0        17.0                        Nicaragua                                                                                       34.3
Tonga                                                                            .SriLanka                                                         11.6.                  ..                                      9.8
Vmantul                                 17.0    18.0          20.0                                               Tajikistan
                                                                                                                 Vietnam                                                                                          6.3
                         Indicator, Worid Bank.
Source: World Developmnent                                                                                       Yemen, Rep.                       61.5                                                          43.0

                                                                                                                 Source, World DevelopmentIndicators, World Bank.
                                                                                                                            82



Annex Table 3.19: Age Dependency Ratio (dependents                    to working-age population), 1990-96
                                                        1990         1991        1992           1993       1994     1993      1996
FY96-97 HIAL ecoot,i.
Caemoo                                                  0,94     ..                        ..              .0.92               0.92
Chad                                                    0.       ..                        ..               .0.90              0e9
Coe d7voire                                             1.00     ..                        ..               .       0.95       0.93
Kenya                                                   109                                                         0.97       0.94
Modogadcar                                              0.99     ..                        ..              .        094        0.94
Malaw-i                                                 0.99     ..                        ..              .        0.97       0.96
Mali                                                    0.98     ..                        ..              .        1.01       1.01
Mauntania                                               0.90     .0..                                       ..       .6        0.S5
Mozambiqur                                              0.91     ..                        ..               .       0.94       0.93
Niger                                                   1.01     ..                        ..               .       1.03       1.03
Tanzania                                                0.96                                               .        0...
                                                                                                                    0.94       0.93
Uganda                                                  1.02     ..                        ..               .       1.04       1.04
Zambia                                                  1.06           .                                            0.97       0.96
NonHIAL SSA co--tries
Angola                                                  0.99     ..                        ..               .       1.02       1.02
Benin                                                   1.07     .                 ...                      .       098        0.97
BoMsa-a                                                 0.90           _          -              .          -       0.84       O.t3
Burkina Faso                                            1.01     ..                        ..              .        0.99       0.99
Bumrdi                                                  0.95     ..                        ..               .       0.99       0.97
Ceral      Affican Repoblic                             0.8      ..                        ..               .       0.86       0.85
Coomos                                                  0.99     ..                        ..               .       1.01       0.98
Congo. De.. Rep.                                        1.01..                             ..               .       1.03       1.02
Congo, Rep.                                             0.95     ..                        ..              .         .99       0.99
Djibouti                                                084      ..                        ..               .       0.79       0.79
Egqnorial Goi.eo                                        0.6      ..                        ..               .       0.09       O.S9
Enieca                                                  0.8      ..                ..                  .   .        0.9        0.89
Edriipia                                                0.93     ..                        ..              .        0.96       0.97
Gabon                                                   0.75     ..                        ..               .       0.79       0.79
Gmbia, The                                              0.I            _    .              ..              .        0.79       0.79
Guiora.Biau                                             0.83 ..                   ...                      .        006        0.86
L.otho                                                  0.8      ..                        ..               .       0.82       0.81
Liberia                                                 0.96           .                                            0.92       0.91
Maolliuo                                                0.54     ..                        ..               .       0.50       0.49
Naosbia                                                 0.87     ..                        ..              .        0.85       0.85
Nigeria                                                 0.92     ..                               ..                0.91       0.90
Rwanda                                                  1.00           .                                            1.06       1.00
SiwraaLeoe                                              0.89     ..                        ..                       0.97       0.96
Somalia                                                 0.99     ..                        ..               .       1.01       1.01
Sonth Afica                                             0.74     ..                        ..               .       0.64       0.63
Sudan                                                   0.87     ..                        ..               .       0.79       0.78
Swaziland                                               0.92     ..                        ..              .        0.84       0.94
Togo                                                    0.95     ..                        ..              .        0.96       0.96
Ziosba-e                                                0.89     ..                        ..               .       0.84       0.83
Non-SSA00..0ncm

Afghaointa                                              0.89     ..                        ..                             S.0. 0.09
Albania                                                 0.62     ..                        ..              .        0.61       0.60
Bagladesh                                               0.94     ..                        ..               .       0.88       0.84
Bhutan                                                  0.83     .                    ..                    .       0.84       0.85
Bol.ia                                                  081      ..                        ..               .       0.80       0.79
Cambodia                                                0.74            .                                           0.84       0.82
Gayana                                                  0.59     ..                        ..              .        0.57       0.56
Hahii                                                   0.0      ..                        ..               .       0.80       0.79
Hondows                                                 0.93     ..                        ..              .        0.0        0.87
Lao PDR                                                 087      ..                        ..               .       0.92       0.91
Maldiv-s                                                1.00     ..                        ..               .       0.95       0.93
Mongolia                                                0.84     .                    ..                    .       0.75       0.73
Myanmar                                                 0.70     ..                        ..               .       0.66       0.65
Nepal                                                   0.87     ..                        ..               .       0.88       9.7
Nicaragua                                               095      .                    ..               .    .       0.07       0.05
Samoa                                                   0.7..                              ..               .       0.76       0.76
    -
Solomon l-ands                                          0.93     ..                        ..               .       0.89       0.08
SniLanka0                                               0.61                ..                                      0.55       0.54
Tajikian                                                0.09     .0..                                  .    .       0.86       0.S4
Vanaum                                                  0.96     ..                        ..               .       0.2        0.81
Viemam                                                  0.77     ..                        ..               .       0.72       0.71
Yemen Rep.                                              1.05                                                        1.00       1.00


5ource: World De-cIp            Inlira,
                              tenl        World Back.
                                                                                                                                                                                              Annex Table 3.20 (I of 2)



Annex Table 3.20: Total External Debt as percentage of GDP, 1980-98
                                                                                                                                                                                              Period Av2raae
                                                                                                                            1991    1992    1993    1994     1995    1996     1997    1998    93-95    96-98
                                           1981    1982    1983    1984    1985    1986    1987    1988    1989    1990
Country                            1980
FY 96-97 HIAL, CFA countries                                                                                                                                                                   0.9       0.8
                                                                                                           36.3    44.2     54.8    68.5    66.0    97.5     104.1   86.7     76.6    70.9
                                   19.1    15.8    16.7    16.3    15.4    26.4    26.5    27.8    26.5
Cameroon                                                                                                                                                                              81.4     0.8       0.8
                                                                                                   30.4    39.4    39.5     43.5    48.0    62.9    88.6     77.2    79.1     77.1
                                   0.0     0.0     25.6    17.1    20.4    18.3    30.4    37.2
Chad                                                                                                                                                                                           1.6        1.3
                                                                                                           102.9   114.1    127.0   122.0   136.3   191.0    160.9   151.1    137.3   98A4
                                   0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0      0.0     0.0     0.0    86.7    81.6
CotedIvoire                                                                                                                                                                           107.9    1.2        1.1
                                                                                                           102.4   97.5     109.9   98.4    105.6   141.0    115.4   109.4    113.9
                                   37.1    47.6    59.6    76.6    94.2    112.7   104.6   101.3   100.1
Mali                                                                                                                                                                                  67.4     0.7       0.7
                                                                                                   58.9    53.8    54.4     59.7    50.9    55.1    84.8     73.1    63.1     69.8
                                   17.0    27.9    29.9    35.1    46.2    59.8    54.7    58.6
Niger                                                                                                                                                                                 85.2     1.0       0,9
                                                                                                   59.5    66.9    69.9     79.0    77.6    85.2    120.6    106.1   97.9     95.0
                                   14.6    18.3    26.4    29.0    35.2    43.4    43.2    62.3
Average
FY 96-97 HIAL, non-CFA countries                                                                                                                                                      59.3     1.0       0.6
                                                                                                           79.0    78.8     86.0    83.5    120.8   95.1     73.1    69.8     60.0
                                   65.6    73.8    81.5    92.8    90.0    90.3    76.0    70.8    71.2
Kenya                                                                                                                                                                                          1.3        1.1
                                                                                                           118.2   112.4    127.8   124.7   115.0   136.6    140.8   112.1    117.0   99.1
                                   25.8    41.0    50.3    50.2    72.7    78.9    87.0    125.7   122.4
Madagascar                                                                                                                                                                                     1.3        1.0
                                                                                                           92.0    96.8     82.5    94.0    90.1    164.8    137.2   97.5     93.7    112.3
                                   64.6    67.0    74.7    76.2    80.1    81.3    91.8    119.3   96.9
Malawi                                                                                                                                                                                163.1    2.2        1.8
                                                                                                           162.1   179.0    175.0   172.3   225.5   225.4    221.3   200.8    177.3
                                   118.3   127,3   155.6   165.1   209.3   205.7   206.0   204.4   196.4
Mauiritania                                                                                                                                                                                    4.7        3.2
                                                                                                           351.9   344.9    352.3   392.4   451.1   475.4    481.2   427.7    287.2   242.9
                                   47.3    61.7    80.1    110.6   123.1   109.0   104.9   286.9   352.5
Mozanmbique,Rep. of                                                                                                                                                                   101.3     1.5       1.1
                                                                                                           114.2   139.9    132.1   130.3   142.5   161.6    146.4   127.8    115.1
                                   40.1    37.3    34.7    36.3    41.8    50.1    48.4    120.9   104.7
Tanzania                                                                                                                                                                              50.3     0.7        0.5
                                                                                                           27.3    36.5     77.0    92.5    81.9    72.6     59.3    57.4     56.3
                                    0.0    0.0     17.3    15.6    23.2    25.6    29.6    17.8    20.1
Uganda                                                                                                                                                                                         2.1        1.9
                                                                                                           164.9   194.9    206.1   202.6   194.7   211.1    215.8   209.8    187.3   175.5
                                   97.1    99.2    107.1   121.3   135.3   213.7   322.6   289.7   173.7
Zambia                                                                                                                                                                                109.2     1.5       1.2
                                                                                                           107.9   114.5    122.3   125.5   138.0   161.9    150.8   135.0    118.8
                                   39.0    44.1    54.2    60.2    70.5    79.7    87.5    115.0   106.8
Average                                                                                                                                                                               110.0     1.5       1.2
                                                                                                           111.1   117.9    125.7   129.2   142.1   165.1    154.3   137.8    120.7
                                   40.9    46.0    56.4    62.5    73.2    82.4    91.0    119.0   110.4
Avg. allHIALcountries                                                                                                                                                                                                     °°
Non-HIAL SSA countries                                                                                                                                                                146.1    2.4        1.4
                                                                                                           70.2     79.7    69.5    116.7   174.6   303.9    256.1   152.6    123.3
                                    0.0     0.0    0.0     0.0      0.0     0.0     0.0    68.1    74.2
Angola                                                                                                                                                                                57.0     0.8        0.6
                                                                                                           75.0    63.8      68.4   63.1    66.1     91.6    80.7     71.8    60.3
                                   21.1    36.7    54.6    65.6    58.0    63.3     57.6   59.7     56.4
Benin                                                                                                                                                                                  13.3    0.1        0.1
                                                                                                           17.9     14.9     15.1    14.6    14.7    14.1     12.6    11.4     12.5
                                   13.5    15.0    20.8    19.8    21.3    31.0    29.2    27.7     20.2
Botswana                                                                                                                                                                               53.2    0.5        0.5
                                                                                                            17.3    10.4     19.3    18.8   25.1     74.3    52.3     50.7    53.0
                                    0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0    28.1    24.3    20.8     19.4   20.4
Burkina Faso                                                                                                                                                                          79.7      1.0       0.9
                                                                                                           79.0     78.2     80.5   91.5    106.7   103.4    95.2    100.2    91.1
                                   17.2    18.3    20.9    27.7    34.9    37.8    45.7    66.1    74.8
Burundi                                                                                                                                                                                         0.4       0.5
                                                                                                           45.9     41.3     44.8   42.8    43.2     43.4    43.4     47.2     51.5    52.7
                                    0.0     0.0    39.4    50.2    55.1     67.2    58.0   51.0     45.1
CapeVerde                                                                                                                                                                             69.4     0.8        0.8
                                                                                                           42.0     44.3     54.3   55.1     64.8    90.0     76.3    83.6    81.4
                                   21.5    28.2    33.7    38.5    41.0    41.7    40.6    49.0    48.5
Central African Republic                                                                                                                                                               69.6     0.9       0.9
                                                                                                    0.0     0.0     0.0      0.0     71.8    70.4    104.7    96.2    96.7    99.6
                                    0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Comoros                                                                                                                                                                                         0.7       0.9
                                                                                                           39.0     41.3     40.9   46.3    42.2     87.8    91.5     88.5     87.3    81.3
                                    0.0     0.0    11.6    14.1    21.8     30.3   38.1    44.1     38.8
Congo, Denm.Rep. of                                                                                                                                                                   643.2     6.0       6.1
                                                                                                           384.0   363.3    403.6   393.9   440.8   717.3    641.5   577.7.   621.6
                                   273.7   263.5   208.5   216.1   254.9   291.4   370.4   347.4   362.2
Congo, Rep. of                                                                                                                                                                         52.3     0.5       0.6
                                                                                                           50.7     50.4     43.1   48.4     52.8    57.0     54.0    58.6     59.8
                                    11.5    9.7     7.4    12.0    22.5    45.3    43.5    65.3     59.4
Djibouti                                                                                                                                                                                        1.7       0.5
                                                                                                           180.1   160.6    172.7   137.8   160.9   206.1    135.1    86.7     42.4    34.4
                                   139.6   192.9   255.0   253.1   260.5   169.3   146.5   136.5   150.5
Equatorial Guinea                                                                                                                                                                                ..
                                                                                                              .      .         .      .       .       .        ..               ..
                                     ..             .        .       .        .      .       .       .-.
Eritrea                                                                                                                                                                       150.5   162.5     0.7       1.3
                                                                                            0.0     0.0     0.0     33.3     32.6   34.7     60.9    76.7     80.3    71.6
                                    0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0
Ethiopia                                                                                                                                                                               57.2     0.7       0.6
                                                                                                           64.4     49.4     55.4    54.6    54.9    83.2     75.0    68.2     62.8
                                   34.5    33.3    33.4    29.8     25.4   27.8     39.0   62.3     74.7
Gabon                                                                                                                                                                                 106.3     1.0       1.1
                                                                                                           96.7     89.1     79.1    93.4    82.4    99.9    110.9   113.3    111.4
                                    0.0    111.2   111.8   72.2    108.9   116.0   121.3   126.2   120.0
Ganbia,The                                                                                                                                                                            115.0     1,0       1.0
                                                                                                    56.7   55.1     52.9     54.4   60.7     81.6    116.3    97.9   100.1     98.1
                                    9.0     7.4     6.5     11.3   32.3    41.5    47.3    65.0
Ghana                                                                                                                                                                                           0.9       0.8
                                                                                                           91.6     83.9     89.8   92.7    90.8     91.7     93.0    88.2     86.3    68.6
                                    0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0    101.7   102.1    95.4
Guinea                                                                                                                                                                                289.1     3.5       3.0
                                                                                                           311.5   268.1    292.3   346.8   346.3   360.4    331.6   317.9    306.9
                                   287.3   240.9   225.9   209.6   329.8   235.5   242.5   304.5   349.6
Guinea-Bissau                                                                                                                                                                                   0.7       0,7
                                                                                                           83.0     76.0     77.7    76.7    79.0    73.0     70.0    71.0     65.8    63.1
                                    17.7   25.0    35.4    39.0     52.2    99.3   102.9    89.0    81.9
Lesotho                                                                                                                                                                                0.0      0.0       0.0
                                                                                                    0.0     0.0     0.0      0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0      0.0     0.0      0.0
                                    0,0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.
Liberia                                                                                                                                                                                25.5     0.2       0.3
                                                                                                    35.5   31.4     29.6     24.6    27.5    23.1    23.5     23.9    25.2     27.2
                                   26.7    37.0    48.0    46.8     47.9    53.1    45.7    36.8
Mauritius                                                                                                                                                                              8.7      0.1       0.1
                                                                                                            12.0    12.6     12.2    10.8    11.6    10.5     10.9    11.0     9.8
                                    0.0     0.0     0.0    22.0     22.0    20.3    20.7    18.6    15.4
Naniibia                                                                                                                                                                               19.9     0.5       0.2
                                                                                                           92.7     100.4    96.1    80.9    67.2    55.1     34.7    24.4     19.4
                                    6.1     12.3    14.9   22.2     20.9    17.1    53.6    99.0    88.4
Nigeria
                                                                                                                                                                                           Annex Table 3.20 (2 of 2)

                                                                                                                                                                                           Period Averauc
Country                            1980    1981    1982    1983    1984    1985    1986    1987    1988    1989    1990    1991    1992    1993    1994    1995    1996    1997    1998    93-95     96-98
Rwanda                             14.5    13.2    14.2    12.3    15.0    17.6    19.7    25.2    25.3    23.5    26.3    39.5    39.0    42.7    138.3   94.2    83.3    73.0    74.0    0.9        0.8
SaoTome&Principe                   57.1    41.0    68.7    78.5    130.4   141.7   150.2   227.4   294.4   364.0   302.1   336.4   475.8   498.1   495.3   557.5   592.1   671.2   611.0    5.2       6.2
Senegal                            41.2    54.3    61.6    78.3    84.9    77.5    69.0    67.8    72.1    57.7    52.2    53.5    56.0    62.5    80.9    70.7    72.1    68.2    62.4     0.7       0.7
Seychelles                          0.0     0.0     0.0    31.7    36.0    42.7    48.3    47.8    40.4    39.0    33.5    37.5    29.7    35.3    38.1    37.4    37.7    35.4    31.6     0.4       0.3
SierraLeone                        29.6    27.5    27.5    33.2    44.4    50.7    89.9    110.5   79.5    88.3    128.7   154.7   167.4   153.3   128.6   124.8   119.0   109.0   98.3     1.4        1.1
Somalia                            40.4    29.7    45.5    54.6    41.9    67.7    98.3    112.5   111.7   168.7   219.8   204.7   193.1   184.4   181.1   173.5   160.7   148.2   139.2    1.8        1.5
South Africa                        1.1     1.4     1.5     1.4     1.6     1.5     1.8     1.5     1.1     0.9     0.7     0.9     0.7     1.3     2.0     2.2     2.5     2.6     2.3     0.0       0.0
Sudan                              59.5    61.9    94.2    107.2   82.3    104.1   67.6    69.2    65.0    101.6   106.2   176.7   196.7   156.3   149.7   176.8   200.8   242.6   214.5    1.6       2.2
Swaziland                           0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0    45.0    49.6    45.5    34.4    31.2    26.2    24.2    21.5    21.3    17.6     17.9   19.4    18.1    21.5     0.2       0.2
Togo                               85.9    94.5    96.6    110.3   102.1   87.5    77.6    75.2    80.6    75.2    72.6    77.4    71.5    101.1   137.8   110.3   97.1    91.8    88.5     1.2       0.9
Zimbabwe                            0.0    18.7    26.3    33.8    38.9    53.0    50.2    51.7    39.7    39.3    39.6    48.1    68.2     70.2   72.9    64.7    56.0    51.9    51.0     0.7       0.5
Average                            35.5    40.4    46.0    49.7    59.3    61.8    69.0    78.6    79.8    83.2    80.9    87.6    97.0    102.5   127.2   117.4   110.5   112.8   107.7    1.2        1.1
N4on-SSA,adjusting countries
Blolivia                           68.8    73.5    79.4    91.5    88.1    83.2    96.6    104.9   93.1    84.0    88.0    77.2    71.4     74.2   77.9    71.7    63.0    58.9    59.2     0.7       0.6
Cambodia                           213.1   206.8   296.0   302.9   307.2   300.4   293.7   319.3   285.2   228.0   96.0    43.9    24.0     15.4   20.1    24.3    28.0    23.5    21.4     0.2       0.2
Honduras                           58.1    58.0    72.2    75.7    79.1    80.4    81.5     76.9   70.2    66.9    136.5   103.7   98.6    108.9   116.0   106.6   94.5    87.0    85.7     1.1       0.9
Mongolia                            0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     5.7    31.2    25.2    65.1    69.0    52.7    57.2    62.0    68.8     0.6       0.6
Tajikistan                          0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0     8.6    74.5    75.0    97.0    133.6   84.1    74.1    84.4     1.0       0.8
Yemen, Rep. of                     44.0    43.1    42.4    46.3    49.4    60.8    71.0     75.2   67.0    78.6    108.8   95.2    78.9    62.2    40.5    78.0    156.0   135.8   135.2    0.6        1.4
Average                            64.0    63.6    81.6    86.1    87.3    87.5    90.4    96.1    85.9    76.2    72.5    60.0    62.1    66.8    70.1    77.8    80.4    73.5    75.8     0.7       0.8
Non-SSA, non-adjusting countries                                                                                                                                                                                       0
Afgbanistan,lslamicStateof         48.7    49.1    53.8    54.4    54.3    74.1    90.5    99.2    91.6    48.2    26.8    15.4     9.7     7.3     6.4     5.7     5.1     4.8     4.9     0.1       0.0
Albania                             7.1     6.4     10.3   11.1    12.9    14.4    13.7     14.4   23.2    34.1    36.9    56.6    119.3    78.6   55.4    31.2    33.5    35.6    32.0     0.6       0.3
Bangladesh                         27.7    33.1    38.9    35.3    34.0    37.9    43.1    47.6    47.0    45.6    48.5    52.6    52.7     53.7   54.2    48.4    43.1    41.6    39.9     0.5       0.4
Bhutan                              0.0     0.0     0.7    11.1    22.2    35.5    40.5    40.5    46.4    48.5    43.2    52.7    53.4     56.8   52.2    46.3    48.4    47.5    53.2     0.5       0.5
Guyana                             93.2    109.4   145.3   162.2   198.6   215.1   211.9   354.3   318.8   530.7   491.2   629.0   546.1   461.8   391.3   318.3   220.8   193.1   195.7    3.9       2.0
Haiti                              25.8    34.6    38.2    43.2    43.9    41.9    34.5    37.6    39.9    40.7    39.3    37.0    43.5     52.5   56.5    33.4    35.0    35.1    35.0     0.5       0.4
Kiribati                            0.9     1.0     5.7     5.0     5.2     4.1     5.6     5.6     5.8     4.9     6.2     6.7     7.0     10.9   14.2     10.9   10.7     9.5     9.3     0.1       0.1
LaoPDR                             35.2    65.9    71.6    42.7    33.7    31.1    48.2    82.6    134.3   127.6   120.2   104.8   97.0    140.5   128.3   135.7   117.2   110.2   102.3    1.3        1.1
Maldives                           80.4    115.8   118.7   135.1   117.9   95.3    80.3    87.7    69.2    66.1    65.9    58.7    64.4    60.6    59.4    64.7    59.9    47.6    46.9     0.6       0.5
Myanmar                            27.3    30.4    35.6    38.9    38.1    45.8    46.2    42.5    39.7    24.7    21.7    19.2    15.8     11.9    9.4     7.1     5.0     3.5     3.2     0.1       0.0
Nepal                               10.5   11.7     13.5    15.7   16.6    18.7    24.0    25.1    31.2    39.3    44.5    57.4    58.6     57.0   59.0    62.1    58.8    62.7    69.9     0.6       0.6
Nicaragua                            ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..      ..    763.1   985.9   613.3   576.1   573.6   624.0   670.2   685.6   651.1   606.3   608.7    6.6       6.2
Samoa                              59.2    66.3    72.8    95.7    87.5    72.8    70.6    70.2    70.0    64.9    81.7    100.5   110.1   117.8   126.0   114.6   98.2    90.9    88.8     1.2       0.9
Solomon Islands                     5.7    17.2    21.9    35.0    37.5    59.6    72.9    74.2    77.6    86.4    94.5    72.0    63.9    44.3    39.6    35.1    30.5    31.9    34.2     0.4       0.3
Sri Lanka                          49.2    54.7    58.4    59.8    52.0    61.4    52.9    51.9    71.6    72.4    70.4    70.8    73.2     77.6   77.0    77.4    67.5    61.5    61.3     0.8       0.6
Tonga                              33.2    36.9    33.8    32.8    31.1    40.0    30.0    39.1    44.5    37.7    40.0    33.7    35.8    35.2    34.0    39.0    38.8    37.2    44.1     0.4       0.4
Vanuatu                             3.8     3.0     4.1    10.4    10.4    13.4    15.9     19.3   18.6    21.5    26.2    21.6    21.3    21.7    21.9    21.3    19.9    16.2     16.7    0.2       0.2
Vietnam                             5.9     °.0    11.8     9.1     5.9    22.4    11.3     11.1   23.8    79.1    92.4    86.6    84.0    66.6    59.3    54.0    53.8    50.5    56.9     0.6       0.5
Average                            30.2    37.4    43.2    46.9    47.2    52.0    52.5    64.9    106.5   131.0   109.1   114.0   112.7   109.9   106.4   99.5    88.7    82.5    83.5     1.1       0.8
Avg. non-SSA countries             39.0    44.2    53.3    57.1    57.6    61.2    62.4    73.0    101.3   117.3   99.9    100.5   100.1   99.2    97.3    94.1    86.7    80.3    81.6     1.0       0.8
Avg. all countries                 37.7    42.7    50.3    54.5    61.3    65.5    70.9    84.3    92.7    99.8    94.1    98.9    104.0   108.6   124.0   116.3   107.5   103.2   99.3     1.2        1.0


Source: IMFIFS.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  AnnexTable3.21(I of2)


Annex Table 3.21: Seigniorage Revenue (Change in Central Bank's claim on the public sector as percentage of GDP), 1975-98
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Pero     vrn

                                                                 1978   1979   1980   1981   1982   1983   1984    1985   1986   1987     1988    1989   1990   1991   1992   1993   1994    1995   1996   1997     1998    93-95    96-98
Country                             1975 1976        1977
1?Y96-97HIAL, CFA countries
                                                                 3.6    3.2    2.7     2.4   2.1     2.3   2.4      1.9   2.8    2.4      3.2     3.8     3.9   9.6    10.4   10.1   10.0    8.2    7.5    6.8       ..      9.4          7.2
Camneroon                             2.7     3.9    3.3
                                                                        7.8    7.6     7.8   6.6     5.4   4.3     3.0    4.1    4.7      3.5     3.6     4.6   3.9    9.0    11.6   10.~5   9.4    10.3   9.6       ..      10.5         9.9
Chad                                  2.4     3.4    3.8         4.9
                                                                 0.4    1.9    4.3    7.3    10.0   12.3   11.4    10.6   10.3   9.6      9.1     7.9    8.5    8.3    8.1    9.3    10.2    7.7    8.0    7.5       ..      9.0          7.8
Cote dIlvoire                         0.0     0.8    0.0
                                                                        14.1   13.7   14.0   16.5   19.3   8.7     9.2    8.8    7.9      8.8     6.4    5.0    5.1    4.9    5.4    5.7     5.3    5.7    6.8       ..      5.5          6.2
Mali                                 14.1     14.3   15.4        15.7
                                                                         1.0   2.1    2.1    2.4     4.1   4.9     6.0    7.2    6.3      5.5      5.4    5.0   5.0    5,0    5.2    5.4     5.6     5.6   6.2       ..      5.4          5.9
Niger                                                0.2         1.2
                                                                 5.2    5.6    6.1    6.7    7.5     8.7   6.3     6.2    6.6    6.2      6.0      5.4    5.4   6.4    7.5    8.3    8.4     7.2     7.4   7.4       ..      8.0          7.4
Average                               4.8     5.6    4.5
FY96-97 HlIAL, non-CFA countries
                                                                        3.9    5.1     8.2   12.4    8.9    8.0     8.8   9.6    11.0     10.0     7.7   10.7   11.3   6.3    15.4   14.1    21.4   10.9   7.7        .      17.0         9.3
Kenya                                 4.6     2.8    3.3         4.0
                                                                        20.3   26.2   29.4   30.0   32.2   35.9    36.8   37.8   40.7     37.2    33.4   28.2   26.2   22.5   19.5   15.5    10.8    8.9   7.5        ..     15.3         8.2
Madagascar                            3.1     4.9    8.1         13.8
                                                                        9.6    10.1   17.2   20.9   22.4   17.0    18.6   20.7   22.5     14.6    13.8   11.0   9.6    14.2   11.8   13.8    6.3    2.5    2.7       ..      10.6         2.6
Malawi                                7.9     8.2    5.8         6.4
                                                                        5.9    6.0     7.5   11.6   10.5   11.0    7.3    7.5    7.2      6.5     13.3   14.0   14.1   13.6   16.6   14.2    12.6   11.7   10.9      .       14.5     11.3
Mauritania                            3.6     1.5    6.9         5.5
                                                                                                                   67.2   67.6   22.8     20.6    17.8   15.1   12.3   8.1    10.0   6.7     5.4     2.7    1.7       .      7.4          2.2
Mozambique, Rep. of.87.6
                                                                        12.8   14.3   14.6   14.3   13.1   14.7    21.9   21.4   17.2     8.1      7.8   17.7   13.6   14.6   16.9   13.4    12.3   8.8    6.6       ..      14.2         7.7
Tanzania                              6.6     6.0    4.2         8.2
                                                                        8.3    9.9    11.1   9.7    18.6   13.8    14.7   11.2   0.0      0.0     0.0    0.0    0.0    29.7   21.0   22A4    22.0   20.2   20.0       ..     21.8     20.1
Uganda                              23.4      17.5   12.0        10.4
                                                                        32.1   36.4   39,9   46.3   44.2   39.4    30.4   20.0   11.5     39.4    47.1   52.1   54.3   0.0    41.3   52.6    71.4   64.7   49.7       .      55.1     57.2
Zambia                               15.4     15.9   12.9        40.3
                                                                 12.7   13.3   15.4   18.3   20.8   21.4   28.4    25.7   24.5   16.6     17.0    17.6   18.6   17.7   13.6   19.1   19.1    20.3   16.3   13.3       ..     19.5     14.8
Average                               9.2     8.1    7.6
                                                                                                    16.1   19.9    18.2   17.6   12.6     12.8    12.9   13.5   13.3   11.3   14.9   15.0    15.3   12.9   11.0       .      15.1     12.0      0
Avg. all HlALcounuries                7.6     7.2    6.3         9.5    10.1   11.5   13.5   15.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                (Jr
Non-H81AL SSA countries


                                                                         1.8   1.8     2.6   2.8     3.5    3.5    2.9    3.5    3.3      3.5      4.4   6.1    5.6    5.0    3.9    3.4     4.2     3.8   4.4        ..     3.8          4.1
Benin                                 0.5     0.2    0.0         0.9


                                                                        1.2    1.2     1.3   1.9     2.2   2.4      1.9    1.9   2.6      2.4     2.4    2.6    2.7    2.9    3.3    4.4     4.8    4.6    5.6       ..      4.1          5.1
Burkina Faso                                         0.7         1.1
                                                                        7.4    8.7    9.8    10.7   12.7   12.7    12.6   12.2   12.5     10.6     8.8    7.9   6.4    5.3    3.9     3.2    3.4    3.6    4.8        ..     3.5          4.2
Burudi                               2.3      3.5    3.6         5.4
                                                                        5.8    13.5   19.0   19.3   17.1   18.3    18.8   18.0   16.8     23.0    23.4   24.5   28.8   32.0   26.9   16.1    15.8   12.6   15.8       ..     19.6     14.2
Cape Verde                               ..   2.7    2.7         5.3
                                                                        4.5    7.3    8.9    8.5    10.7   9.6     6.4    6.4    6.4      6.1     4.5    4.4    7.1    7.7    7.9    8.4     6.5    6.9    5.8       ..      7.6          6.4
Central African Rep.                 4.0      4.6    4.2         5.8
                                                                                             1.8     1.8   2.1     2.3    2.2    2.2      2.6      2.9    2.7   3.6    3.6    3.5    4.5     4.5    4.4    4.3       ..      4.2          4.3
Comoros             .      ..                               ..
                                                                                                               .    ..      .     ..        ...          44.5   16.8   13.8   15.4   2.4     0.5    0.0    0.0       .       6.1          0.0
Congo, Denm.Rep.....
                                                                        6.9    5.2    3.6    5.1     5.1   5.4     4.6    9.5    8.7      8.1     7.0    7.2    6.7    9.4    9.6    7,9     7.7    7.5    8.2       ..      8.4          7.8
Congo, Rep. of                        5:3     5.7    6.8         8.1


                                                                                                                   18.1   14.9   12.8     16.0    11.9   8.6    30.0   27.0   27.8   25.4    20.1   11.9   4.8       ..      24.4         8.3
Equatorial Guinea...


                                                                 8.8    9,7    10.5   9.6    11.4   12.6   16.0    12.4   14.3   13.3     15.7    16.9   20.0   23.7   27.5   24.7   29.8    24.0   20.2   20.7      ..      26.2     20.5
Ethiopia                             4.5      6.9    7.2
                                                                        5.3    2.6    0.4    0.4     0.1   0.0     0.0     1.8   7.9      7.9      7.5   2.5    2.8    3.9    4.1    4.1     4.0    4.2    2.8       ..      4.1          3.5
Gabon                                0.7      1.2    3.9         5.3
                                                                 5.9    11.1   5.8    18.0   14.0   25.8   30.8    32.6   12.3   4.6      4.8      1.2    1.3   0.8    8.8    8.4    8.7     7.4     7.0   6.1       5.6     8.2          6.2
Gambia, The                         -1.0      1.5    6.3
                                                                        19.5   16.5   16.1   17.5   13.3   14.2    16.8   18.5   23.7     15.4    11.2   8.5    14.2   16.2   24.4   21.0    21.0   16.3   15.0      ..      22.1     15.6
Ghana                                18.4     24.1   23.5        23.4
                                                                                                               .           .      .        .       .      .     5.9    6.2    6.0    6.9     9.3    10.8   12.0      ..      7.4      11.4
Guinea      .           .....
                                                                                                .                   .     0.4    0.4      0.3     0.4    0.4    0.2    0.2    0.1    0.1     0.1    0.1    0.0       ..      0.1          0.0
Guinea-Bissau.                    ....                                                                     .

                                                                                      7.7    9.3     6.1   2.9     6.3    6.6    11.2     23.9    21.4   18.3   31.4   6.3    10.1   7.8     4.1    3.7    0.4       .       7.4          2.1
Lesotho         .         ..                                     .1.7
                                                                        13.4   19.2   20.7   26.3   33.0   33.0    40.7   46.0   51.7     63.4    66.1   0.0    62.8   62.2   66.5   61.5    65.8   0.0    0.0       ..      64.6         0.0
Liberia                              3.4      4.2    4.4         9.7
                                                                        22.5   18.7   31.6   30.4   32.7   33.2    25.2   15.2   5.0      1.0     0.9    0.8    7.4    2.9    1.9    2.9     1.0     1.3   2.0       ..      1.9          1.6
Mauritius                           -0.8      7.7    16.1        19.0
                                                                                                                    .-                .    ..      .       .     .     6.2    7.0    6.6     6.4    6.2    0.0       ..      6.6          3.1
Narniba         .         .....                                                                                .

                                                                        6.5    6.4    11.5   14.5   20.4   17.4    11.7   21.2   16.7     18.2    14.1   18.1   23.8   22.9   22.1   25.2    21.9   11.1   12.6       ..     23.1     11.8
Nigeria                               1.7     2.1    6.5         10.3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Annex Trable3.21 (2 of2


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Period AveTaoe
Country                                      1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984                                        1985      1986    1987 1988        1989     1990    1991    1992      1993    1994    1995 1996 1997 1998 93-95 96-98
Rwansda                                      2.9          2.6       1.6           1.6    1.1    1.0    0.9      1.7    2A4    2.2      1.8      2.3     3.7      3.2     4.5      8.7     8.6     10.7      12.3    20.3    10.7    8.8     8.9      8.1      14.4     8.6
Sao Tome & Principe                      .            .....                                                                            .                  .      .        .        .       .        .        .        .     28.1    29.1    19.0       ..    28.1     24.0
Senegal                                      0.1          0.8        1.7          1.7    2.8    5.9    8.7     13.0   13.8    14.1    13.7      12.6    12.3    11.7     11.8     10.6    10.7     10.1     10.0    12.3    11.2    8.7     10.4       ..     11.2     9.5
Seychielles                                  0.9          0.5       0.4           1.5    0.5    0.2    2.0     3.4     5.8    6.6     8.8       7.9     10.0    10.9     6.0      5.3     5.6     10.8      12.5    21.5    26.5    30.0 33.2          ..     20.1    31.6
Sierra Leone                                 7.5          9.4       9.9           14.6 19.3 24.2 29.3 33.5 31.2 26.0                  33.2      19.4    16.5    13,2     11.8     23.5    14.8     8.7       5.8    85.1    62.5    48.0    47,5       ..     51.1    47.7
Somalia                                      3.4          7.8       9.1           14.9   22.6   21.7   16.7    17.0   18.2    11.2    10.0      9.6     13.6    11.9      7.1     0.0     0.0      0.0       0.0     0.0     0.0    0.0     0.0        ..     0.0      0.0
South Africa                                 5.9          4.1       2.9           2.5    2.5    4.4    4.9     3.6     2.5    0.5     0.6       0.9     0.3      0.7     0.6      2.4     2.4      1.4       2.3     3.1     2.1    3.0     2.2        ..     2.5      2.6
Sudani                                       11.3         10.9      9.1           9.3    8.6    8.9    9.6     10.9   22.8    18.9    20.0      16.3    18.1    13.9     17.7     13,6    9.2      11.6      8.9     7.3     6.9    7.5     5.4        .,     7.7      6.4
Swaziland                                    0.5          0.5       0.4           3.4     1.1   1.2    1.2      1.2    1.1    2.7     3.2       3.1      1.0     0.3     0.1       0.0    0.0      0.0       0.0     1.0     0.5    0.0     0.0        ..     0.5      0.0
Togo                                         2.0              1.9   3.7           5.4    6.1    5.3    8.4     8.4    11.0    10.7    11.9      11.7    11.4    10.3     9.2      9.4     8.7      8.9      11.6     9.1    10.8    9.4     8.0        ..     10.5     8.7
Zinibabwe                                    4.2          4.2       4.7           3.3    2.8    3.5    6.7     6.7     8.5    7.2     6.6       6.6     8.1      4.6     3.9      6.8     5.4      7.9       7.9    15.3    24.1    30.4    31.5       ,.     15.8    31.0
Average                                      3.7          4.9       5.6           7.3    8.0    8.1    10.4    10.9   12.6    12.1    12.4      10.9    10.9    11.2     10.3      9.2    11.9     11.3     11.6    14.2    13.4    10.0    9.4      6.8      13.1     8.8
Non-SSA, adjusting countries
Bolivia         .           ....                                                                                      79.6    67.2    103.3     35.1    34.5    32.4     32.8     35.0    33.9    34.1      22.5    21.3    13.6    10.5    8.3      0.0      19.1     6.3
Cambodia                .        ......                                                                                                           .      .        .       .         .      .        .        3.8     3.5     3.1    2.7     2.3      2.8      3.5      2.6
Honduras                                     3.9          3.6       2.4           4.6    5.9    6.7    9.2     9.8     8.2    10.0    10.3      9.3     11.4 14.7        14.3     15.8     8.8     8.6       9.3     5.8     3.8    3.3     3.5      0.0      6.3      2.3
Mongolia                .        .....                                                                                                            .      .           ,    .         .     3.8      4.2      4.5      4.8     1.1     7.3    3.2      0.0      3.5      3.5


Yemen, Rep. of              .                 .....                                                                                        .     .        .      .            .   77.9    73.7    77.9      79.9    60.8    48.2    30.0    20.8     0.0      65.6     16.9
Average                                      3.9          3.6       2.4           4.6    5.9    6.7    9.2     9.8    43.9    38.6    56.8      22.2    22.9    23.6     23.6     42.9    30.0    31.2      24.0    20.8    13.9    10.7    7.6      0.6      19.6     6.3    0
Non-SSA, non-adjusting cotintries                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             0
Afghanistan                                  9.7          11,9 12.0 14.8 15.1 9.8                      11.4 11.5 14.5 15.6            18.8      24.4    35.4    39.5     31.2     24.3    19.9     0.0       0.0     0.0     0.0     0.0    0.0      0.0      0.0      0.0
Albania             .              .....                                                                                                   .     .        .       .           .    .        .       .         .     36.9    20.4    18.8    25.5     0.0      28.6    14.8
Bangladesh                                   5.4          5.2       4.5           3.8    3.1    4.3    5.6     3.9     3.2    2.5     2.5        1.0     2.5     1.7     2.2      2.1      1.5     1.1       0.6     0.5     L.7     2.7    2.3      0.0      0.9      1.7
Bhuana          .....                                                                                                          .           .     .        .      .        .         .      .        .        1.0     0.0     0.5    0.0     0.4      0.0      0.5      0.1
Guyana                                       3.3          16.8      22.3          22.6   32.1   39.7   42.3    73.4   101.0   103.2   113.5     132.0   139.5   182.1    227.5    197.6   183.9   220.8     190.8   160.4   144.0   100.1   75.6     0.0     165.0    58.6
Haiti                                        15.8         17.5      22.1          22.8   22.5   24.0   28.4    28.1   33.2    29.9    26.8      26.7    28.2    29.2     26.0     23.7    21.4    24.5      23.6    25.0    21.3    17.6    16.3     0.0      23.3     11.3


Lao PDR             .            .....                                                                                                     .      .      .           .    4.5      1.6     1.0     1.5       1.0     1.3     0.8     0.9    3.3       0.0     1.0      1.4
Maldives                                      ,          63.7       71.6          44.7   41.4   47.9   43.8    39.6   39.7    36.0    42.3      40.6    35.6    24.6     26.8     23.1    29.0    33.1      39.0    36.2    34.6    28.3    21.7     0.0      36.6     16.7
Myamuoar .....                                                                                                                  .                 .      ..                                                                   .

Nepal                                        4.2          5.2       5.6           6,5    6.8    7.2    8.4     9.8    11.7    12.2    12.6      13.3    11.5    11.2     12.4     11.7    10.2     10.4      9.6     8.9     9.8    8.9     8.7      0.0      9.4      5.8
Nicaragua               .        ..                                          ..                         ...-                                      .       .-.                 .   3.7     16.3    223.9     198.0   196.3   170.6   121.5 130.1      0.0     188.3    83.9
Samoa                                        0.0          0.0        1.6          1.5     1.2   3.1    4.9     5.8     4.9    4.1     3.8        1.0     0.9     1.3      1.1      L.5    0.7      0.7       0.6     0.0     0.0    0.0     0.0      0.0      0.2      0.0
SolomonIalands.                              ..                                    ..                           1.7    1.5     1.8    4.6       2.8      5.6     7.3     8.6      10.1    13.4     8.2       5.9     7.0     7.4     6.3    5.9      5.4      6.8      5.9
Sri Lanka                                    7.7          10.9      13.7          13.8   14.8   24.2   22.7    23.3   20.8    13.5    18.5      189.0   17.4    21.0     20.4     17.1    16.5     11.8      7.1    6.6     6.8     6.9     4.4      0.0      6.8      3.8
Toaga       .               ..                                             ..                                  4.9     4.4    4.1     3.5       2.9     3.4      3.2     3.7      8.8     5.8      5.4       5.5     4.8     2.4    2.2     2.2      0.0      4.2      1.5
Vanuatu                                                                                                0.1     0.2     0.4    0.3     0.1       0.0      0.0     0.0     0.0      0.0     0.0      0.0       0.0     2.5    2.8     2.7     4.0      4.1      1.8      3.6
Vietnamn                                                                                                                                   ..    .               ..                                     4    9.8     5.7    4.3     4.9     4.7      0.0      6.6      3.2
Average                                      6.6          16.4      19.2          16.3   17.1   20.0   18.6    18.4   21.4    20.4    22.5      23.9    25.5    29.2     30.4     25.0    24.6    39.3      32.8    30.7    26.7    20.1    19.1     0.6      30.1    13.3
Avg. non-SSA couintries                      6.3          15.0      17.3          15.0   15.9   18.5   17.7    17.7   24.9    23.2    27.7      23.6    25.1    28.3     29.4     28.4    25.9    37.5      30.6    28.4    23.7    17.9    16.3     0.6      27.6     11.6
Avg. all countlries                          5.3          7.7       8.2           9.5    10.2   11.1   12.8    13.6   16.6    16.9    17.7      15.7    14.8    15.8     15.9     15.6    16.3    19.0      18.3    19.0    17.1    13.1    12.0      1.1    -18.1     8.7


Source: IMFIFS.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Annex Table 3.22 (lof 2]

Annex Table 3.22: Debt Dynamics Table
                                                   Real           Growth                   Debt/                                                   Prinsary
                               Real GDP Growth   Interest         Factor                   GDP                                                      Deficit
                                     (n)           Rate            (r-n)                    (b)                                                      (P)                Seignorage
                                                   (r)                                                           (r-n)*b                                                     (s)                   (p-s)           db = (r-it)*b +(p-s)

                               93-95     96-98              93-95      96-98       93-95       96-98     93-95        96-98                 93-95         96-98      93-95         96-98   93-95           96-98   93 95       96-98
Country Group
FY 96-97 HIAL, CFA countries
                                          5.0      5.2       6.0           0.2      0.9            0.8    5.4              0.2               1.1              -4.1    0.1           0.0     1.0            -4.1     6.4         -4.0
Cameroon                        -0.8
                                          6.5      -1.3      -0.7          -7.9     0.8            0.8    -0.6             -6.2              16.8             11.2    1.4           1.3     15.4            10.0    14.8         3.7
Chad                            -0.6
                                3.0       6.2      2.2      -0.7           -4.0     1.6            1.3   -1.2              -5.2              0.2              -2.7    1.3           0.6     -1.1           -3.3     -2.3        -8.5
Coted'lvoire
                                          5.1      -0.7     -2.8           -5.9     1.2            1.1   -3.4              -6.5              9.5              7.1     0.9           1.2     8.6             5.9      5.2        -0.6
Mali                             2.1
                                2.7       3.8      0.1      -2.6           -3.7     0.7            0.7   -1.8          -2.4                  7.9              5.2     0.8           0.7     7.1             4.5      5.3         2.1
Niger
                                 1.3      5.3       1.1      -0.2          -4.2     1.0            0.9    -0.3             -4.0              7.1              3.4     0.9           0.8     6.2             2.6      5.9        -1.4
Average
FY 96-97 HIAL, non-CFA countries
                                2.5       2.7       1.4     -1.1           -1.4     1.0            0.6    -1.1             -0.9              -4.9             -4.6    7.1           -4.7   -11.9            0.1    -13.0        -0.8
Kenya
                                          3.2      -0.8      -2.0          -4.0     1.3            1.1    -2.7             -4.4              5.6              3.9     0.7           -0.2    4.9             4.1      2.2        -0.3
Madagascar                       1.2
                                4.6       7.1      -0.7      -5.4          -7.8     1.3            1.0    -7.0             -7.9              13.4             4.7     1.6           -0.5    11.8            5.2      4.8        -2.7
Malawi
                                4.5       4.5      0.1      -4.3           -4.4     2.2            1.8    -9.7             -7.9              1.5              -3.8    1.0           0.0     0.6            -3.8     -9.2       -11.7
Mauitania
                                          7.4     -0.7      -8.9           -8.1     4.7            3.2   -41.8         -25.9                21.6              16.4    2.2           -0.8    19.3            17.2   -22.5        -8.7
Mozarnbique                     8.2
                                 1.6      4.3      5.7       4.1            1.4     1.5            1.1    6.1              1.6               4.1              0.1     2.6           -0.8    1.5             0.9      7.6         2.5
Tanzania
                                 8.1      6.0      0.5      -7.6           -5.6     0.7            0.5    -5.4             -3.0              7.2              5.1     2.5           1.5     4.7             3.6     -0.7         0.6
Uganda
                                -2.0      5.1      -0.7      1.4           -5.8     2.1            1.9    2.9          -11.1                 3.9              3.1    32.3           7.8    -28.4           -4.7    -25.6       -15.8
Zambia
                                                                           -4.5     1.8            1.4    -7.3             -7.4              6.6              3.1     6.3           0.3     0.3             2.8     -7.1        -4.6                    00
Average                         3.6       5.0      0.6      -3.0
                                                                                                         -4.6          -6.1                  6.8              3.2     4.2           0.5     2.6             2.7     -2.1        -3.4                    s
Avg.allHIALcountries            2.7       5.2      0.8      -1.9           -4.4     1.5            1.2
Non-HIAL SSA countries
                                -0.5      6.7      -0.3      0.2           -7.0     2.4            1.4    0.6              -9.9              18.4             7.8                           18.4            7.8     18.9        -2.1
Angola
                                4.2       5.7      2.0      -2.2           -3.7     0.8            0.6   -1.7              -2.3              4.3              3.1     0.3           0.5     3.9             2.6      2.2         0.2
Benin
                                3.5       5.4      3.3      -0.2           -2.1     0.1            0.1    0.0          -0.3                  -4.3             -2.8    0.0           0.0     -4.3            -2.8    -4.3        -3.1
Botswana
                                 1.4      5.8      -1.4      -2.8          -7.1     0.5            0.5    -1.4             -3.7              8.8              8.2     1.1           0.9     7.7             7.3      6.3         3.6
Burkina Faso
                                -5.6      0.2     -0.9       4.7           -1.1     1.0            0.9    4.7              -1.0              7.1              4.0     -0.2          1.2     7.3             2.8     12.1         1.8
Burundi
                                4.2       3.5       1.1     -3.1           -2.4     0.4            0.5   -1.4              -1.2              28.0             14.5    -3.4          1.1     31.4            13.3    30.1        12.1
Cape Verde
                                2.6       2.2      -1.3     -3.8           -3.5     0.8            0.8    -2.9             -2.7              10.9             5.2     0.6           -0.4    10.3            5.5      7.3         2.8
Central Afr. R
                                -2.0      1.5      -0.7      1.3           -2.2     0.9            0.9    1.2              -2.0              17.5             11.5    0.5           0.0     17.0            11.4    18.2         9.4
Comoros
                                -1.4      4.9      2.2       3.6           -2.7     0.7            0.9    2.7              -2.3              0.8              -6.9    0.2           1.1     0.6             -8.1     3.3        -10.4
Congo
                                -5.6      -0.9     -2.2      3.4           -1.2     6.0            6.1   20.3              -7.6              8.7              3.2     5.6           0.0     3.0             3.2     23.4        -4.4
Congo, Dem. Rep.
                                -3.6      -1.3    -1.1       2.5           0.2      0.5            0.6    1.4              0.1               9.8              2.3     0.0           0.0     9.8             2.3     11.2         2.4
Djibouti
                                8.6      67.9     20.6       12.1          -47.3    1.7            0.5   20.2          -25.8                 10.4             -3.8    3.1           -0.3    7.4             -3.6    27.5        -29.4
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea..                                  .        ..        .              ..      .              ..     .                .............
                                6.4       6.2     44.1      37.8           37.9     0.7            1.3   27.4          48.6                  6.5              4.3     3.0           0.4     3.5             3.9     31.0        52.5
Ethiopia
                                3.2       3.7      11.2      7.9            7.5     0.7            0.6    5.6              4.7               -5.6         -12.2       0.7           -0.2    -6.2           -12.0    -0.6        -7.3
Gabon
                                -0.3      3.5       1.2      1.5           -2.3     1.0            1.1    1.5              -2.5              -0.1             4.2     0.0           -0.2    -0.1            4.4      1.4         1.9
Gambia. The
                                          4.6      0.2      -4.3           -4.4     1.0            1.0   -4.2              -4.6              6.6              5.5     7.0           2.0     -0.4            3.5     -4.6        -1.1
Ghana                           4.4
                                          4.7      0.7      -3.6           -4.0     0.9            0.8   -3.3              -3.2              -4.1             4.4     1.6           2.2     -5.7            2.2     -9.0        -1.0
Guinea                          4.4
                                3.2       4.9      -1.5     -4.7           -6.4     3.5            3.0   -16.3         -19.5                 6.7              9.2     0.0           0.0     6.7             9.2     -9.6       -10.3
Guinea-Bissau
                                 8.9      8.3      -1.4     -10.3          -9.7     0.7            0.7    -7.6             -6.5              -1.8             2.3     0.5           -1.3    -2.4            3.6    -10.0        -2.9
Lesotho
                                2.4       2.7       1.0     -1.4           -1.7     0.0            0.0    0.0              0.0               16.3             12.4    7.0          -29.9    9.3            42.3      9.3        42.3
Liberia
                                4.8       5.2      3.3       -1.5          -1.9     0.2            0.3    -0.3             -0.5              0.0              2.3     -0.4          0.6     0.4             1.7      0.1         1.2
Mauritius
                                          3.9    234.6      231.4          230.7    0.1            0.1   25.5          22.7                  2.8              3.6     0.9           -2.4    1.9             6.0     27.4        28.8
Namibia                         3.2
                                          4.1       1.0      -1.2          -3.1     0.5            0.2    -0.6             -0.7              -3.8             -2.9    7.2           -0.8   -11.0            -2.1   -11.6         -2.8
Nigeria                          2.1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Annex Table 3.22 (2of 2]
                                                   Real            Growth                  Debt/                                        Primary
                               Real GDP Growth   Interest          Factor                  GDP                                           Deficit
                                     (n)           Rate             (r-n)                   (b)                                           (P)                Seignorage
                                                   (r)                                                          (r-n)ab                                           (s)                   (p-n)           db - (r-n)ab +(p-s)
Country Group                  93-95     96-98              93-95       96-98      93-95       96-98     93-95        96-98      93-95         96-98      93-95         96-98   93-95           96-98   93-95       96-98
Rwanda                          -10.4     11.6     2.1      12.5            -9.6    0.9            0.8   11.4             -7.3    10.7             12.9    0.6           0.8     10.1            12.1    21.6        4.8
SaoTome& Principe                1.8      2.0     10.1       8.4            8.1     5.2            6.2   43.2             50.8   45.7              50.5    9.4           5.4    36.4            45.1     79.6       95.9
Senegal                          1.8      5.4      1,5      -0.4            -3.9    0.7            0.7   -0.3             -2.6    1.6              -1.2    1.6           0.3     0.0            -1.5     -0.3       -4.1
Seychelles                      0.6       1.9     -0.4      -1.0            -2.3    0.4            0.3   -0.4             -0.8    -2.0             -3.3    5.7           4.9     -7.7            -8.2    -8.1       -9.0
Sierra Leone                    -2.2      10.0    -0.7       1.5        -10.7       1.4            1.1    2.0         -11.6       4.9              5.3    23.7           3.2    -18.8            2.1    -16.8       -9.5
Sonmalia                         5.2      5.4      0.3      -4.9            -5.1    1.8            1.5   -8.8             -7,6    5.1              4.8     0.0           0.0     5.1             4.8     -3.7       -2.8
South Africa                     2.5      2.4      7.3       4.8            4.9     0.0            0.0    0.1             0.1     0.0              -3.4    0.5           0.3     -0.5            -3.7    -0.4       -3.6
Sudan                            3.5      5.6     -2.1      -5.7            -7.7    1.6            2.2   -9.1         -16.9       13.8             14.1    2.4           2.4     IIA             11.7    2.3        -5.2
Swaziland                        3.1      2.8      8.1       5.0            5.3     0.2            0.2    0.9              1.0    4.6              4.5     0.2           -0.2    4.4             4.7      5.3        5.8
Togo                            2.4       6.0     -0.1      -2.5            -6.2    1.2            0.9    -2.9            -5.7    7.8              2.1     1.7           -0.3    6.2             2.4     3.2        -3.3
Zimbabwe                         2.7      4.7      6.2       3.4            1.5     0.7            0.5    2.4             0.8     2.4              0.2     7,5           10.1    -5.1            -9.9    -2.7        -9.1
Average                          1.7      6.2      10.2      8.5            4.0     1.2            1.1    3.2             -0.6    7.0              4.9     2.7           0.1     4.4             4.8      7.6        4.2
Non-SSA, adjusting countries
Bolivia                         4.2       4.2      2.4      -1.8            -1.8    0.7            0.6   -1.3             -1.1    3.5              3.6    -3.7          -1.2     7.2             4.8     5.9         3.8
Cambodia                         5.2      6.5     -2.5      -7.7            -9.0    0.2            0.2    -1.5            -2.1     ..               ..     1.3           0.0      ..

Honduras                        3.0       4.5      2.6      -0.4            -1.9    1.2            1.0   -0.4             -1.9    6.1              1.2    -0.2           0.2     6.3             1.0      5.9       -0.9
Mongolia                         1.9      3.2      -1.0     -2.9            *4.2    0.6            0.6    -1.8            -2.7     ..               ..     1.1           2.2      ..
Tajikistan                      -15.0     0.7     -2.5      12.5            -3.2    1.0            0.8    12.7            -2.6    16.9             4.4     0.0           0.0     16.9            4.4     29.6        1.8
Yemen, Rep.                      3.5      5.0     -0.4      4.0             -5.5    0.6            1.4    -2.4            -7.7    16.4             4.6     14.0          -2.5    2.4             7.1     0.0         -0.6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             00
Average                         0.5       4.0     -0.2      -0.7            4.2     0.7            0.8    0.9             -3.0    10.7             3.5     2.1           -0.2    8.2             4.3     10.3        1.0
Non-SSA, non-adjusting   countries
Afghanistan                     6.7       6.0     -2.3      -9.0            -8.3    0.1            0.0    -0.6            -0.4    3.6              2.8     0.0           0.0     3.6             2.8     3.1         2.4
Albania                          9.3      4.0      -0,4     -9.7            -4.4    0.6            0.3   -5.3             -1.5    7.6              9.7     8.8           6.2     -1.2            3.5     -6.5        2.0
Bangladesh                       4.9      5.4     -0.7      -5.6            -6.1    0.5            0.4   -2.9             -2.5    5.7              5.5     0.3           0.5     5.4             5.0     2.5         2.5
Bhutan                           5.7      5.4      4.9      -0.8            -0.6    0.5            0.5    -0.4            -0.3    0.1              10.1    0.2           0.0    -0.1             10.2    -0.5        9.9
Guyana                           7.2      5.7      -1.1     -8.3            -6.8    3.9            2.0   -32.5        -13.8       5.7              7.7     11.8         -22.9   -6.0            30.7     -38.5       16.9
Haiti                           -2.1      2.5      -0.7      1.4            -3.3    0.5            0.4    0.6             -1.1    3.5              0.9     3.7           0.5    -0.2             0.4      0.5        -0.7
Kiribati                         2.0      2.2     20.1      18.1            17.9    0.1            0.1    2.2              1.8   -27.1             -0.5    0.0           0.0    -27.1            -0.5    -25.0       1.2
LaoPDR                           7.1      7.2      -0.4     -7.5            -7.6    1.3            1.1   -10.1            -8.4    3.9              4.0     0.0           1.4     3.9             2.6     -6.1        -5.7
Maldives                         6.6      6.2      1.2      -5.4            -5.0    0.6            0.5   -3.3             -2.6    11.5              1.1    6.0          -2.1     5.5             3.3     2.2         0.7
Myanmar                          6.6      7.0      -1.9     -8.6            -8.9    0.1            0.0   -0.8             -0.3    4.4              4.3     0.0           0.0     4.4             4.3      3.6        4.0
Nepal                            5.4      4.3      -1.2     -6.6            -5.4    0.6            0.6   -3.9             -3.5    4.3              4.8     0.9           0.5     3.4             4.3     -0.5        0.8
Nicaragua                        2.4      4.7      -1.1     -3.5            -5.7    6.6            6.2   -23.1        -35.7       7.4              6.1     6.8           -5.7    0.6             11.8    -22.5      -23.9
Samoa                            2.4      4.6      -0.5     -2.9            -5.1    1.2            0.9   -3.5             -4.7    10.2             -0.8   -0.2           0.0    10.4             -0.8     7.0        -5.6
Solomon Islands                  5.6      4.4      0.2      -5.4            4.3     0.4            0.3   -2.1             -1.4    6.3              0.5     1.0          -0.1     5.3             0.6     3.2        -0.8
Sri Lanka                       5.8       5.3      0.8      -4.9            4.4     0.8            0.6   -3.8             -2.8    8.3              6.6    -0.5          -0.2     8.7             6.8     4.9         4.0
Tonga                            3.7      -0.3     0.5      -3.2            0.8     0.4            0.4   -1.1             0.3     -2.0             2.5    -0.8           0.0    -1.2             2.5     -2.4 .      2.8
Vanuatu                          3.4      3.0      11.4      8.0            8.4     0.2            0.2    1.7              1.5    2.0              1.8     1.0           0.7     1.0             1.1     2.7         2.6
Vietnans                         8.8      7.3      1.5      -7.4            -5.8    0.6            0.5   4.4              -3.1    3.6              1.9     0.2           0.7     3.3             1.2     -1.1       -2.0
Average                          5.1      4.7      1.7      -3.4            -3.0    1.1            0.8   -5.2             -4.4    3.3              3.8     2.2          -1. 1    1.1             5.0     -4.1        0.6
Avg. non-SSA countries          3.9       4.5      1.2      -2.7            -3.3    1.0            0.8   -3.7             -4.0    4.6              3.8     2.2          -0.9     2.4             4.9     -1.5        0.7
Avg. all countries               2.7      5.5      5.5       2.8            0.0     1.2            1.0   -0.5             -2.8    6.2              4.2     2.8          -0.2     3.4             4.4     2.9         1.7

Source. IMFIFS.
                                                                      89


Annex Table 3.23: Policy Outcomes and Impact (1996-98 compared to 1993-95)

                                                                                                                      Non-SSA
                                                        HIAL, HZAL,non- Non-HIAL                         Non-SSA        non-
                                              HIAL       CFA       CFA       SSA      Non-SSA            adjusting    adjusting   All
                                             countries countries countries countries" countries          countries    countries countries
Primary Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
1993-95                                            -6.8      -7.1       -6.6        -7.3          -4.6       -9.3      -3.2         -6.3
1996-98                                            -3.2      -3.4       -3.1         -4.9         -3.8       -3.6       -3.8        -4.2
Change in primary balance                          3.6        3.7        3.4         2.4          0.9        5.8        -0.6         2.1
No. of successful countries                         12         5           7          19           14          3         11          45
Percentage of category                              92       100          88          68           64         60         65          71
Inflation (% change in CPI)
1993-95                                           28.4       13.9       37.4        15.6          17.0      29.0        13.4        18.8
1996-98                                            10.7       4.4        14.7        9.6          7.8         8.3       7.6          9.2
Change in inflation                               -17.7      -9.5      -22.7         -6.0         -9.2      -20.7       -5.8        -9.6
No. of successful countries                         13         5           8          23           19          5         14          55
Percentage of category                             100        100        100          88           86        100         82           90
Real Effective Exchange Rate (1990 = 100)
1993-95                                           79.8       70.7       85.5        87.6         105.5       94.7      109.4        91.7
1996-98                                            84.4      66.1       95.8        86.1         123.6      115.5      126.5        98.0
Change in REER (+ denotes appreciation)            4.6       -4.6        10.3        -1.4         18.1       20.8       17.1         6.3
No. of successful countries                          6         5           1          16             1          0         1           23
Percentage of category                              46        100         13          62            5           0         7           40
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
1993-95                                           -14.6     -11.0      -16.8        -18.1         -8.6       -6.6       -9.8        -14.6
1996-98                                           -10.2      -8.9      -11.0        -15.6         -6.7       -6.6       -6.8        -11.9
Change in current account balance                  4.4        2.1        5.9         2.5           1.9        0.0        3.0         2.8
No. of successful countries                         12          5          7          19            8           3         5           39
Percentage of category                              92        100         88          68           50         50         50           68
Interest Rate Differential
 1993-95                                           -8.2       -6.9       -8.9        -2.3         -1.5         ...      -1.5         2.9
 1996-98                                           -1.1      -1.2        -1.1         2.2          0.7         ...       0.7         2.8
Change in interest rate differential                7.1       5.8         7.8         4.5          2.3         ...       2.3         -0.1
No. of successful countries                          6          3          3           13           2          ...        2           22
Percentage of category                              75        100         60          87           40          ...       40           76
Non-gold Reserves (in weeks of imports)
 1993-95                                           13.6       15.6       12.6        25.3         16.3        11.2      18.2         19.3
 1996-98                                           17.3       16.0       17.9        21.3         16.6       19.0       15.7         18.6
Change in non-gold reserves                         3.7       0.3         5.4        -4.0          0.4        7.7       -2.5         -0.7
No. of successful countries                          7          2          5           5             9          4          5          21
 Percentage of category                              78        67          83          28           50         80         38          47
Gross Domestic Investment (% of GDP)
 1993-95                                           19.1       15.3       21.5        23.2         19.4        18.0      20.0         21.0
 1996-98                                           19.6       18.0       20.5        24.8          18.7       14.6      20.4         21.5
 Change in gross domestic investmnent               0.5       2.7        -1.0         1.6          -0.7       -3.3       0.4          0.5
No. of successful countries                           8         5           3          18           10          2          8          36
 Percentage of category                              62       100          38          64           42         29         47          55
 Real Per Capita GDP Growth
 1993-95                                           -0.6       -1.7        0.1         -1.2          1.4       -1.5       2.6         -0.1
 1996-98                                            2.1        2.2        2.0          1.5         2.0         1.7       2.2          1.8
 Change in real per capita GDP growth               2.7        3.9         1.9        2.7          0.6         3.2       -0.5          1.9
 No. of successful countries                         12         5           7          23           13           6         7          48
 Percentage of category                              92        100         88          85           54          86        41           75
'The followingnon-HIAL countries excluded:South
                        SSA          are                               becauseof theirsize;Liberia,
                                                        AfricaandNigeria                                  Somalia, Sudan
                                                                                                   Namibia,        and     because data
                                                                                                                                 of
         and
problems, Equatorial   Guinea becauseof its enonnous GDPgrowth.Noneof thesecountries         IDA         in
                                                                                    received resources the 1990s.
Source: See Annex Tables 2.1 - 2.8.
                                                                         90



Annex Figure 3.1: Trends in Country Policy and Institutional Assessment [CPIAI, 1995-98


                               LIII:
                               HIAL                         ______             Non-HIAL
                                                                               ~~~~~~SSA                                Non-SSA



                           Overall
                                Indicator                            ;             Macroeconomicmanagementand sustainability of
                                        Overall Indicator                                           ~~~~~~~~~~reforms
4.0 -
                                                                         4.0
3.0

2.0

1.0                                                                       .

  00.0
      17    1995            1996       1997           1998                        1995           1996          1997           1998
                       ustinale
               Poliiesfor          & equitable
                                             growth                                      Policies reducinginequalities
                                                                                                 for                              7

                   4.0 -                                             ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~4.0-
4.0--                                                                    30

2.020-

1.0                                                                       .

0.0                                                                       .
            1995           1996        1997           1998                        1995          1996           1997           1998


                   Public sector management
4.0-

3.0   -__




            1995           1996        1997           1998
                                    91



                                         Annex 4

4. Policies and Growth
   Table 4.1: Computed Variables
   Table 4.2: Regression Analyses
                                                                                                                                                                                  Annex Table 4.1 (I of 2)
Annex Table 4.1: Computed Variables
                    Dependentvar.                       Macrovariables                                                     of
                                                                                                         variables,Averages 1996-98
                                                                                                     CPIAa                                                                      of
                                                                                                                                                                   CPRa, Averages 1996-98

                                     ,          as       PdearyBalance Real EffeacetEi
                                                                                     canae
                       PercapitaGDPgmro Inveterent %of chraeeofAv9.11996r-Rate:chlageof       MMSRE        PSEG'         PRId         PSM-         Overall        Macro        Structural      Overall
                                      h'GDP,     19l6-                               A        MMS
                               l8Ats
                          Avg.199698                                                    -9         Av.
                                                                                             1996-98     19968 Avg.   199698Avg.   1996-98Avg.   1996-98Avg.   1996-98 Avg.   1996-98 Avg.   1996-98 Avg.


                             y1             igdp            pbal              reer              sa          sb           sc           sd            so            ss2            ss3            sso
HIAL countries
 1 Cameroon                  2.2            16.9            5.2               -5.3           0.7565      0.8493       0.3889       0.5046          2.6212        2.999          2.588          2.615
 2 Chad                      4.0            19.4            5.5               -2.7           0.7494      0.8359       0.4219       0.5597          2.7167        2.876          2.837          2.823
 3 Cote d'lvoire             2.4            15.9            2.9               -6.7           0.9498      0.9317       0.5001       0.7121          3.2959        3.999          3.223          3.471
 4 Kenya                     -0.3           20.0            -0.3              12.8           0.8915      0.8914       0.5110       0.6024          3.0004        4.209          3.102          3.302
 5 Madagascar                0.6            12.2            1.7               7.1            0.6190      0.8481       0.5110       0.5214          2.6969        2.374          2.863          2.820
 6 Malawi                    4.0            14.5            8.8               12.0           0.7850      0.9096       0.5834       0.6811          3,1394        3.250          3.248          3.301
 7 Mali                      2.0            26.0            2.4               -6.3           0.8185      0.8751       0.5832       0.6351          3.0414        3.291          3.177          3.194
 8 Mauritania                1.7            11.7            5.4               -4.5           0.9021      0.8995       0.6168       0.7336          3.3141        3.833          3.391          3.509
 9 Mozambique                4.3            46.6            5.2               9.2            0.7692      0.8286       0.5222       0.5842          2.8333        2.915          2.908          2.882
10 Niger                     0.5            12.0            2.7               -3.4           0.7092      0.8481       0.4944       0.5314          2.7653        2.875          2.872          2.917
11 Tanzania                   1.4           20.8            4.0               32.4           0.7002      0.8123       0.5390       0.5707          2.7605        2.502          2.724          2.688
12 Uganda                    3.0            21.7            2.0               7.5            1.0169      0.9708       0.5944       0.6623          3.3972        4.082          3.270          3.454
13 Zambia                     1.4           16.5            0.8               9.9            0.7223      0.9550       0.5499       0.6673          3.0834        2.874          3.204          3.177

Non-HIAL SSA countries
14 Angola                    3.7            17.0            10.6              -19.9          0.3525      0.3710       0.3001       0.3256          1.3669        1.375          1.451          1.401
15 Benin                     2.6            18.0            1.1                -2.7          0.9233      0.9601       0.4833       0.6635          3.2144        4.000          3.199          3.420
16 Botswana                  2.8            26.8            -1.5              -13.7          1.1067      1.0321       0.5778       0.8078          3.6393        4.500          3.453          3.781
17 Burkina Faso              3.0            25.0            0.6                -8.3          0.7921      0.8375       0.5168       0.6007          2.9343        3.333          2.914          3.095
18 Burundi                   -2.7            7.1            3.1                17.5          0.5867      0.5839       0.3777       0.4255          2.0249        2.500          2.010          2.062
19 Cape Verde                0.7            38.7            13.5                1.4          0.7833      0.9527       0.6779       0.7635          3.3997        3.000          3.557          3.519
20 Centr.Afrc. Rep.          -0.4            6.0             5.7              -4.0           0.5244 0.6956 0.3389 0.4073                           2.0360        2.166          2.079          2.025
21 Comoros                   -1.1           21.7             6.0                ..           0.5527      0.7660       0.3944       0.4715          2.3957        2.417          2.487          2.575
22 Congo,Dem.R.             -3.8             6.1             5.5              -7.4           0.3175 0.4462 0.2167 0.2705                           1.2692         1.165         1 304          1.267
23 Congo                     1.9            39.2            7.8               11.1           0.6969      0.7969       0.3054       0.5358          2.5122        3.041          2.554          2.707
24 Djibouti                 -3.4             9.8            7.5               0.0            0.5585      0.7685       0.3834       0.4712          2.2437        2.292          2.434          2.298
25 Equatorial Guinea        64.1            75.8            14.3              0.9            0.4625      0.5000       0.2277       0.2640          1.5187        1.875          1.483          1.548
26 Eritrea                    ..               ..             ..              0.0            0.8379      0.9021       0.5666       0.6439          3.1853        3.168          3.018          3.194
27 Ethopia                   3.2            20.4            2.2               -5.6           0.8935      0.7848       0.5724       0.6798          3.0650        3.541          2.879          3.088
28 Gabon                      1.2           21.1            6.6               -5.6           0.8331      0.8128       0.2887       0.5790          2.6289        3.499          2.340          2.571
29 Gambia, The               -0.2           20.7            -4.3              -3.3           0.7985      0.8416       0.5666       0.6141          2.9169        3.291          3.039          3.030
30 Ghana                      1.5           18.6             1.1              10.2           0.7215      0.9995       0.5667       0.7323          3.2116        2.709          3.505          3.340
31 Guinea                     1.7           14.0            -8.5              -2.7           0.7227      0.8440       0.4553       0.5133          2.6612        2.916          2.627          2.690
32 Guinea-Bissau             2.8            21.9            -2.4               1.0           0.6602      0.7932       0.4667       0.6264          2.6615        2.502          2.874          2.755
33 Lesotho                   6.2            81.6            -4.2              -9.9           1.0183      0.8519       0.5554       0.7005          3.3456        4.250          3.085          3.476
34 Liberia                   -0.1            9.3            3.9                 ..           0.2500      0.2838       0.1833       0.2233          0.9405
35 Mauritius                 4.0            26.3            -2.3              -0.8           1.0256      1.1188       0.7223       0.8681          3,9504        4.334          4.188          4.247
36 Namibia                   0.7            20.1            -0.8              -1.7           0.9500      1.0126       0.5444       0.6924          3.2314
37 Nigeria                   2.0            12.7            -0.9              47.0           0.6333      0.7123       0.4276       0.4564          2.2923        2.500          2.304          2.297
38 Rwanda                    2.9            12.7            -2.2              11.2           0.5988      0.6941       0.3666       0.4832          2.2028        2.333          2.050          2.047
39 SaoTome& Principe         0.0            54.3            -4.8                ..           0.4898      0.7120       0.4110       0.5097          2.3592        1.999          2.615          2.628
40 Senegal                   2.5            16.8            2.8               -8.0           0.9490      0.8818       0.4834       0.6134          3.1353        3.834          2.929          3.231
                                                                                                                                                                   Annex Table 4.1 (2 of 2)
                              Dependent var.                Macro variables                        CPIA variables, Averages of 1996-98                  CPRa, Averages of 1996-98

                                      GDP
                               Percapita grPh, Ineblen as %aO PdlmaBalance Real         Exchange M
                                                                                 Effectice                 rSEGp       r        PSM'        ovenar      Macro     Structural   Overall
                                                GDUFn   la9e- changeoftAvg. Rate:Changeof- l9g&i8AV.
                                                                       limi6-            atAvgG,                       PR'                   ve
                                                                                                                                              Ang.
                                                                                                                                             a1-8    1996-98Avg. 1996-98           Avg.
                                                                                                                                                                        Avg. 1996-98
                                  Avg.16s98     GDP, 1
                                                     A          al&t1993-9l
                                                                         s     1
                                                                              fig"I61993-961             19it68SAvg. 1ssAn.   1Avg.96Ava.
                                                                                                                                  8Avg.


                                     yi             igdp       pbal            reer            sa          sb          Sc       sd           so         ss2        ss3          sso
41   Seychelles                      1.2            22.6        1.3            -4.1         0.6617       0.7438      0.5443   0.5984        2.7673     2.750      2.812        2.950
42   Sierra Leone                    7.4             14.2      -0.4             6.3         0.7652       0.8129      0.4331   0.6072        2.6798     3.331      2.974        2.926
43   Somalia                         2.4             11.3      0.2              0.0         0.2500       0.2838      0.1833   0.2233        0.9405
44   South Africa                    0.0             17.6      3.4             -7.9         0.9146       1.0134      0.5887   0.7653        3.4022
45   Sudan                           2.8             13.4      -0.3             1.0         0.3433       0.3713      0.2500   0.3150        1.2872
46   Swaziland                       -0.4            20.0      0.0              0.7         0.8000       0.8673      0.5002   0.5360        2.9518     3.540       2.790       3.133
47   Togo                            2.8             14.6      5.7             -0.9         0.7781       0.8604      0.4388   0.5985        2.8459     3.209       2.909       2.990
48   Zimbabwe                        1.6             23.5      2.2              8.5         0.7244       0.9391      0.5445   0.6345        3.0433     3.167       3.238       3.274

Non-SSA countries
 1 Afghanistan                       -0.3            ..         0.9
 2 Albania                            3.0           15.2        -2.1            4.2         0.7904       0.8319      0.5111   0.6368        2.9541     2.600       3.000       3.202
 3 Bangladesh                         3.1           16.8        0.2             2.6         0.8881       0.7950      0.6946   0.6003        3.1200     2.800       3.100       2.011
 4 Bhutan                             3.0           45.3       -10.0             ..         0.8942       0.9730      0.5613   0.7877        3.4479     3.400       3.220       4.226
 5 Bolivia                            1.9           19.0        -0.2            2.6         0.9704       1.0300      0.6332   0.7246        3.5674     3.000       3.280       4.289
 6 Cambodia                           3.8            ..          ..             6.3         0.6413       0.6894      0.3998   0.4245        2.4100     1.500       2.160       3.618
 7 Guyana                            4.5            18.7        -2.0            12.0        0.9013       0.9222      0.5723   0.6604        3.2295     2.800       3.280       3.530
 8 Haiti                              0.4           10.9        2.5             38.8        0.6613       0.7984      0.3554   0.4306        2.3735     1.900       2.420       1.656
 9 Honduras                           1.5           26.1        5.0             5.7         0.7292       0.9344      0.6166   0.6905        3.1428     2.800       3.080       3.157
10 Kiribati                           0.1            ..        -26.6            4.3         0.8896       0.8385      0.4613   0.5834        2.7770     2.400       2.460       1.487
11 Lao Peoples D.                    4.2            11.1        -0.1             *          0.8069       0.8506      0.5113   0.6669        3.0437     2.600       2.640       4.059
12 Maldives                           2.8           46.5        10.4             ..         0.9613       0.9765      0.6832   0.7163        3.5709     3.200       3.480       4.227
13 Mongolia                           1.2           23.9         ..            11.8         0.7004       0.8655      0.6223   0.6302        3.0298     2.800       3.060       4.143
14 Myanmar                           4.8             9.6        0.1            129.5
15 Nepal                              1.7           24.3        -0.6            0.9         0.7454       0.8756      0.4723   0.4971        2.7155     1.800       2.340       1.951
16 Nicaragua                          1.4           20.3         1.3           -6.9         0.7577       1.0049      0.5888   0.7117        3.3228     2.700       2.960       4.278
17 Samoa                              2.9           30.0        11.1            4.0         0.7700       0.6375      0.7167   0.7250        2.8000     2.900       2.800
18 Solomon Islands                    1.1           32.0        5.8            11.6         0.5167       0.6276      0.4279   0.5043        2.2209     2.200       2.180       1.636
19 Sri Lanka                         4.0            25.9         1.7           10.1         0.7985       0.9623      0.6888   0.6681        3.2844     2.900       3.180       3.210
20 Tajikistan                        -2.0            7.2        12.4           75.7         0.4863       0.5172      0.2945   0.3562        1.8425     1.800       2.260       3.221
21 Tonga                             -1.0           15.2        -4.5            4.6         0.8346       0.7954      0.5332   0.6471        2.9152     2.700       2.560       4.048
22 Vanuatu                            0.5           36.6        0.1             7.4         0.8065       0.8819      0.5056   0.6111        2.9569     2.600       2.660       1.976
23 Vietnam                           5.0             ..         1.7            15.0         0.8952       0.7980      0.6555   0.7120        3.2024     2.800       2.780       4.006
24 Yemen, Rep. Of                     1.5           15.2        11.7              ..        0.7694       0.8415      0.5333   0.5905        2.8410     2.600       2.940       2.508

                  Policy & Institutonal
     ' CPIA:Country                   Assessment;                        Total no. of countries:            71      [excluding Equatorial Guinea]
     CPR: Country PerformanceRaUng.                                      missing y1                 -1             Eritrea
     Note: CPRwaas replacedbyCPIAIn 1998; sb, sc,sd and
                                        sa,                              igdp                       -2             Cambodia, Kiribati
     so for 1996and 1997 re-mapped the CPIAequivalent.
                        are         to                                   pbal                       -2             Bolivia, Mongolia
     bMMSR: Macro  Management Sustainability Reforms.
                              and           of                           reer                       -8     -13     [Comoros, Liberia, Sao Tome & Principe
     CPSEG;      for         &         Growth
          Policies Sustainable Equitable                                 Obs. of Basic model               58      Afghanistan, Bhutan, Lao, P.D., Maldives, Yemen, R.]
                              Inequality
     dPRI: Policierfor Reducing                                          w/o reer [58 + 81                 66
      PSM:PublicSectorManagement
                                                                                               94



                                                                                                                                                           Annex Table   4.2


1. All countries  w/o Zq. Guinea
unrecognized command
r(1991;

2. regress                       yl        igdp                     rear
                                                                >pbal

  Source I       SS       df       MS                                                                  Number of obs                -             58
---------+------------------------------                                                               F1 3,     54)                -           4.36
   Model I 47.9522527      3 15.9840842                                                                Prob > F                     -         0.0081
Residual 1 198.148612     54 3.66941874                                                                R-squared                    -         0.1948
---------+------------------------------                                                               Adj R-squared                -         0.1501
   Total I 246.100865     57 4.31755903                                                                Root MSE                     -         1.9156
--------------------------------------------------------------------                                                             __-------_

                  yl I   Coef.      Std. Err.          t     P>ltl          [951 Conf. Interval]
                          …--------+…___________________________________________________________________
            igdp I   .0711198       .0223867        3.177    0.002          .0262371       .1160024
            pbal I -. 0968545       .0595078       -1.628    0.109         -.2161604       .0224513
            reer I   .0093576       .0117411        0.797    0.429         -.0141818       .0328971
            cons I   .5327886       .5582557        0.954    0.344         -.5864468       1.652024
----------------------------------------------------------                                                __-----------------_



3. regress                       yl igdp

  Source I         SS        df         MS                                                             Number of obs                =              66
---------+------------------------------                                                               F( 1,     64)                =            6.86
   Model i 26.1390942         1 26.1390942                                                             Prob > F                     -          0.0110
Residual I    243.86212      64 3.81034562                                                             R-squared                    -          0.0968
---------+------------------------------                                                               Adj R-squared                -          0.0827
   Total 1 270.001214        65 4.15386483                                                             Root MSE                                 1.952
---------------------------------------------------------------------                                                               __------_

                  yi I                        Coef.     Std. Err.        t     P>ltl         (95% Conf. Interval]
                                               …----_--_+…___________________________________________________________________
            igdp I                        .0502877       .0191999      2.619   0.011         .0119315     .0886438
            cons 1                        .7036401       .4746451      1.482   0.143       -.2445725     1.651853
----------------------------------------------------------                                                __-----------------_



4. regress yl igdp sa

  Source I        SS         df        MS                                                              Number of obs                =                65
---------+------------------------------                                                               F( 2,       62)              =              8.33
   Model 1    55.202955       2 27.6014775                                                             Prob > F                     =           0.0006
Residual I 205.511507        62 3.31470173                                                             R-squared                    =           0.2117
---------+------------------------------                                                               Adj R-squared                =           0.1863
   Total I 260.714462        64 4.07366347                                                             Root MSE                     =           1.8206
 --------------------------------------------------------------------                                                             __-------_

                  yl         I                     Coef.                Std.   Err.      t     P>ltl       [95% Conf.                   Interval]

            igdp I  .0373608                                            .0190835       1.958   0.055     -.0007866                       .0755082
              sa 1  3.542946                                            1.292402       2.741   0.008      .9594723                        6.12642
            cons I -1.698772                                            .93*3317      -1.812   0.075     -3.572471                       .1749276


5. regress                        yl         igdp            sb

  Source  i        SS     df        MS                                                                 Number of obs                =                 65
---------+------------------------------                                                               F( 2,       62)              =              5.20
    Model I 37.4487725      2 18.7243862                                                               Prob > F                     =           0.0082
Residual  I  223.26569     62 3.60105951                                                               R-squared                    =           0.1436
---------+------------------------------                                                               Adj R-squared                =           0.1160
    Total I 260.714462    64 4.07366347                                                                Root MSE                     =           1.8976
 --------------------------------------------------------------------                                                             __-------_

                   yl I                            Coef.                Std.   Err.      t     P>Itl        [95% Conf.                  Interval]
  _________+____________________________________________________________________

             igdp I                     .0470777                        .0195169       2.412   0.019      .0080639                          .0860915
               sb                         1.98131                       1.405495       1.41D   0.164     -.8282354                          4.790855
             cons I                    -.8991554                        1.134113      -0.793   0.431     -3.166214                          1.367904


6. regresa yl igdp se

  Source  I        SS     df         MS                                                                Number of obs                    =             65
---- ^---+------------^------------------                                                              F( 2,       62)                  =          6.20
    Model I 43.4596651      2 21.7298326                                                               Prob > F                         =       0.0035
Residual  I 217.254797     62 3.50410963                                                               R-squared                        =       0.1667
---------+------^--------------------^--                                                               Adj R-squared                    =       0.1398
    Total I 260.714462     64 4.07366347                                                               Root MSE                         =       1.8719
                                                                                                          95

                 yl I Coef.       Std. Err.           t      P>ltl         [95% Conf. Interval]
                     …--------+-___________________________________________________________________
          igdp I   .0415554        .0197046        2.109     0.039         .0021665       .0809443
             sc 1  3.786926        1.953585        1.936     0.057        -.1182356      7.692087
         -cons  I -1.028794        .9393199       -1.095     0.278        -2.906467       .8488801


7. regress                       yl       igdp ad

  Source I         SS        df         MS                                                                             Number of obs                  =               65
---------+------------------------------                                                                               Fl 2,       62)=                            7.65
    Model I 51.6123738        2 25.8061869                                                                             Prob > F                       =         0.0011
Residual  I 209.102088       62 3.37261433                                                                             R-squared                      =         0.1980
---------+------------------------------                                                                               Adj R-squared                  =         0.1721
    Total I 260.714462       64 4.07366347                                                                             Root MSE                       =         1.8365S
-------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                               __--------_

                  yl I                     Coef.     Std. Err.           t      P>Iti          [95% Conf. Interval]
                                         …--------+…___________________________________________________________________
          igdp I                       .0352121        .019739        1.784     0.079        -. 0042456      .0746699
             sd 1                      4.556095      1.812114         2.514     0.015          .9337302     8.178459
         -cons I                      -1.700807      1.005714        -1.691     0.096        -3.711201         .309587


8. regress yl igdp so

  Source  I        SS        df         MS                                                                             Number of obs                   =                65
---------+------------------------------                                                                               Fl 2,       62)=                              6.74
    Model I 46.5465873         2 23.2732936                                                                            Prob > F                        =          0.0023
Residual  I 214.167875       62 3.45432056                                                                             R-squared                       =          0.1785
---------+------------------------------                                                                               Adj R-squared                   =          0.1520
    Total I 260.714462       64 4.07366347                                                                             Root MSE                        =          1.8586
--------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                                 __-------_

                  yl         I       Coef.     Std. Err.           t      P>Itl          [95% Conf. Interval]
                                   …--------+…___________________________________________________________________
          igdp               I   .0387122       .0197931        1.956     0.055        -. 0008535        .078278
             so              I   .8598633       .3963983        2.169     0.034          .0674744     1.652252
         _cons               I -1.492198       1.049996        -1.421     0.160          -3.59111      .6067141
-----------------------------------------------------------                                                                 __----------------_



9. regress yl igdp ss2

  Source I        SS      df        MS                                                                                 Number of obs                   -          60
---------+------------------------------                                                                               F( 2,       57)                 =       8.97
   Model I 60.2291293       2 30.1145646                                                                               Prob > F                        = 0.0004
Residual I 191.358204     57 3.35716148                                                                                R-squared                       -0.2394
---------+------------------------------                                                                               Adj R-squared                   -0.2127
   Total I 251.587334     59   4.2641921                                                                               Root MSE                        -    1.8323


                   Yl I                            Coef.                 Std. Err.            t         P>Itl              [95% Conf. Interval]
      . _ _ _ _ _ _-+…__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _                  _______ ___ ___ _______
            igdp 1                        .0385477                        .019236        2.004          0.050              .0000284                        .0770671
              ss2 1                       1.068151                        .353259        3.024          0.004               .3607621                         1.77554
           -cons I                        -2.20253                       1.030007       -2.138          0.037             -4.265083                       -.1399774


 10. regress yl igdp ss3

       Source                 I                       SS                   df          MS                              Number of obs                      =         60
                                              …-------+…------
                                               -------------------                     -- -                            Fl 2,       57)                    =      9.39
    Model I 62.3309621         2                                                  31.165481                            Prob > F                           -0.0003
 Residual I 189.256372        57                                                3.32028722                             R-squared                          =0.2478
 ---------+------------------------------                                                                              Adj R-squared                      =0.2214
    Total ; 251.587334        59    4.2641921                                                                          Root MSE                           =1.8222
  --------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                                __-------_

                    yl I  Coef.    Std. Err.          t      P>Itl          (95% Conf. Interval]
                       -______--+…___________________________________________________________________
              igdp I  .0370275     .0192188         1.927     0.059        -.0014575       .0755125
               ss3 1  1.568386     .4990366         3.143     0.003         .5690819      2.567689
              cons I -3.496961     1.375284        -2.543     0.014        -6.250919     -.7430024


  11. regress yl igdp sso

     Source                   I                         SS                 df         MS                                Number of obs                      =             59
  -------                     +                 …………--------------------------                                          Fl 2,       56)                    =          5.90
       Model                  I     43.5720221                              2    21.786011                              Prob > F                           =       0.0047
  Residual                    I     206.732046                             56   3.69164368                              R-squared                          =       0.1741
                                        ---------
                              +------------------------------                                                           Adi R-squared                      =       0.1446
            Total             I 250.304068                                 58   4.31558738                              Root MSE                           =       1.9214
   ---------------                                   C--ef.----t------rr.---t-----------[95--------------nter---al-_
             yl I                                    Coef.         Std. Err.                   t          P>ltj              [95% Conf. Interval]
                                                                                                                      96
          igdp l  .0446583                                              .020009                   2.232           0.030                  .0045754                         .0847412
           sso l   .704108                                             .3512743                   2.004           0.050                   .000421                         1.407795
         -cons l -1.327208                                             1.066577                  -1.244           0.219                 -3.463819                         .8094025
----------------------------------------------------------                                                                                __-----------------_



12.         use          "Q:\Application                               Data\!HXAL\Reg\±ial.dta',                           clear

13. edit
- preserve
 (1 var, 13 obs pasted into editor)

14.         regress                  yl igdp pbal                       reer

  Source  l        SS        df         MS                                                                                          Number of obs                     =                13
---------+------------------------------                                                                                            Fl 3,         9)                  =             8.27
   Model l 18.1156642          3 6.03855474                                                                                         Prob > F                          =          0.0059
Residual l 6.57356749          9 .730396387                                                                                         R-squared                         =          0.7337
---------+------------------------------                                                                                            Adj R-squared                     =          0.6450
   Total  l 24.6892317       12 2.05743597                                                                                          Root MSE                          =          .85463
--------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                                                __-------_

                  yl I
                     Coef.    Std. Err.         t      P>ltl          [95% Conf. Interval]
                      …________+…___________________________________________________________________
          igdp )  .0728505     .027479       2.651     0.026          .0106887      .1350123
          pbal l  .4022935    .1017919       3.952     0.003          .1720241      .6325628
          reer l -.0200974    .0224791      -0.894     0.395        -. 0709487       .030754
         -cons l -.6691348    .6640563      -1.008     0.340        -2.171334       .8330648
----------------------------------------------------------                                                                                __-----------------_



15. regress yl igdp pbal

  Source  I        SS      df         MS                                                                                            Number of obs                     =                13
_________+______________________________                                                                                            F) 2,       10)                   =            12.25
    Model l 17.5318468       2 8.76592338                                                                                           Prob > F                          =          0.0020
Residual  l 7.15738494     10  .715738494                                                                                           R-squared                         =          0.7101
--------- +------------------------------                                                                                           Adj R-squared                     =          0.6521
    Total l 24.6892317     12 2.05743597                                                                                            Root MSE                          =          .84601
--------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                                                __-------_

                  yl I                            Coef.                Std. Err.                      t           P>Itl                    [95% Conf. Interval]
   _ _____                _-+…--                                                                                                         -
                                                                       - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - __- -- _ _ _ _ _         ___ __         __ ___
          igdp l   .068211                                             .0267124                   2.554           0.029                   .008692                         .1277299
          pbal l   .408277                                             .1005473                   4.061           0.002                  .1842436                         .6323104
         -cons l -.6955735                                             .6567071                  -1.059           0.314                 -2.158808                          .767661


16. regress yl igdp pbal sa

     Source I                                        SS                   df                MS                                      Number of obs                     =                13
                                              …--------+------------------------------                                              F) 3,         9)                  =             9.25
    Model l 18.6448309        3 6.21494364                                                                                          Prob > F                          =          0.0041
Residual  l 6.04440076        9 .671600084                                                                                          R-squared                         =          0.7552
---------+------------------------------                                                                                            Adj R-squared                     =          0.6736
    Total l 24.6892317       12 2.05743597                                                                                          Root MSE                          =          .81951
--------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                                                __-------_

                  yl         I            Coef.    Std. Err.          t     F>Itl           [95% Conf. Interval)
                                           …________+…___________________________________________________________________
            igdp             l        .0658763     .0259391       2.540     0.032          .0071979      .1245547
            pbal             l        .4218297       .097965       4.306    0.002          .2002174       .6434419
               sa            l        2.733866     2.123675        1.287    0.230        -2.070221       7.537952
            cons             i       -2.883096     1.814442      -1.589     0.147        -6.987648       1.221457
----------------------------------------------------------                                                                                 __-----------------_



17. regress yl igdp pbal sb

  Source  I        SS        df         MS                                                                                           Number of obs                    =               13
---------+------------------------------                                                                                             F) 3,         9)                 =           14.25
    Model l 20.3959535         3 6.79865117                                                                                          Prob > F                         =          0.0009
Residual  l 4.29327819         9   .47703091                                                                                         R-squared                        =          0.8261
---------+------------------------------                                                                                             Adj R-squared                    =          0.7681
    Total l 24.6892317       12 2.05743597                                                                                           Root MSE                         =          .69067
--------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                                                __-------_

                  yl I                            Coef.                Std. Err.                       t           P>ltl                   [95% Conf.                  Interval]

           igdp              l   .0824764                              .0225714                   3.654            0.005                   .0314163                      .1335364
           pbal              I   .4627092                              .0850383                   5.441            0.000                   .2703392                      .6550792
              sb             l   10.48553                              4.279263                   2.450            0.037                     .805163                    20.16589
          -cons              l -10.40807                               3.999871                  -2.602            0.029                   -19.4564                    -1.359728
----------------------------------------------------------                                                                                 __-----------------_



18. regress yl igdp pbal sc

     Source I                                         SS                  df                MS                                       Number of obs =                                   13
                                                    …________+_________--__---------------
                                                                                      F( 3,                                                     9) =                                7.35
         Model l 17.5318493                                                 3     5.84394977                                         Prob > F      =                             0.0086
                                                                                                 97
Residual I 7.15738237         9 .795264708                                                              R-squared                       =        0.7101
---------+------------------------------                                                                Adj R-squared                   =        0.6135
   Total  I 24.6892317       12 2.05743597                                                              Root MSE                        =        .89178
--------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                __-------_

                  yl I               Coef.     Std. Err.            t     P>Itl          [95%Conf. Interval]
                                    …-------_+…___________________________________________________________________
           igdp             I   .0682097       .0281668         2.422     0.039            .004492     .1319273
          pbal              1    .4082841      .1060597         3.850     0.004          .1683605      .6482077
              sc            I   .0070367       3.915972         0.002     0.999        -8.851508      8.865581
         -cons              I -. 6992627       2.166606        -0.323     0.754        -5.600466      4.201941
----------------------------------------------------------                                                 __-----------------_



19.         regress yl igdp pbal sd

     Source I                              SS       df         MS                                       Number of obs                    =        13
                                         …-------+__-_--------------------------                        Ft 3,         9)                 =     8.77
   Model I                            18.396614       3 6.13220467                                      Prob > F                         = 0.0049
Residual 1                           6.29261769       9 .699179743                                      R-squared                        = 0.7451
---------+------------------------------                                                                Adj R-squared                    =  0.6602
   Total I 24.6892317        12 2.05743597                                                              Root MSE                         =.83617
--------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                   __-------_

                  yl I                            Coef.                   Std. Err.        t    P>ltl       [95% Conf. Interval]
---------                   +…___________________________________________________________________
           igdp              I   .071353                                  .0265523     2.687    0.025       .0112875                         .1314186
           pbal              I  .3975418                                  .0998451     3.982    0.003       .1716764                         .6234072
              sd             1  3.621139                                  3.256042     1.112    0.295       -3.74454                         10.98682
          -cons              1 -2.937674                                  2.117951    -1.387    0.199      -7.728812                         1.853464


20. regress yl igdp pbal so

  Source  I        SS     df        MS                                                                  Number of dbs                    =                13
---------+------------------------------                                                                Ft 3,         9)                 =             9.63
    Model I 18.8266207      3 6.27554025                                                                Prob > F                         =          0.0036
Residual  I 5.86261095      9 .651401216                                                                R-squared                        =          0.7625
=--------+------------------------------                                                                Adj R-squared                    =          0.6834
    Total 1 24.6892317    12 2.05743597                                                                 Root MSE                         =          .80709
 --------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                  __-------_

                   yl I                            Coef.                  Std. Err.        t    P>Itl        (95% Conf. Interval]
  _________+--__-__--__-___-_---------------__--__-___-__---_--___-------_______
          igdp                I         .0720042                          .0256252      2.810   0.020        .014036                           .1299724
          pbal                )         .4174846                          .0961439      4.342   0.002       .1999919                           .6349773
            so                1         1.267609                          .8991094      1.410   0.192       -.766318                           3.301535
         _cons                I        -4.572768                          2.820536     -1.621   0.139      -10.95326                           1.807727


21. regress yl igdp pbal ss2

   Source I        SS         df         MS                                                              Number of obs                    =              13
 _________+_____________-_-____----------                                                                F( 3,         9)                 =            8.00
    Model I 17.9533433         3 5.98444775                                                              Prob > F                         =         0.0066
 Residual 1 6.73588844          9 .748432048                                                             R-squared                        =         0.7272
 ---------+------------------------------                                                                Adj R-squared                     =        0.6362
    Total  I 24.6892317       12 2.05743597                                                              Root MSE                          =        .86512


                    yl I                           Coef.                  Std. Err.        t    P>ItI         (95% Conf.                   Interval)

             igdp             I  .0690924                                 .0273409      2.527   0.032         .007243                            .1309419
             pbal             I  .4235211                                 .1048055      4.041   0.003        .1864346                            .6606075
              ss2             1  .3146775                                 .4193194      0.750   0.472      -. 6338888                            1.263244
            -cons             I -1.785664                                 1.600303     -1.116   0.293      -5.405801                             1.834473
   ----------------------------------------------------------                                                __-----------------_



 22.          regress yl igdp pbal ss3

    Source  I        SS        df         MS                                                             Number of obs=             13
  ---------+------------------------------                                                               Ft 3,        9)=        8.75
      Model I 18.3877478         3 6.12924926                                                            Prob > F        =0.0049
  Residual  I 6.30148391          9 .700164879                                                           R-squared       =0.7448
  ---------+------------------------------                                                               Adj R-squared=       0.6597
      Total I 24.6892317        12 2.05743597                                                            Root MSE         =.83676
   --------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                  __-------_

                     yl I                            Coef.                Std. Err.        t    P>ltl          [95% Conf. Interval]

             igdp              I  .0721443                                 .0266586     2.706   0.024        .0118383                            .1324504
             pbal              I  .4167628                                 .0997431     4.178   0.002        .1911281                            .6423974
              ss3              1   1.10131                                 .9960886     1.106   0.298       -1.151999                            3.354619
            _cons              I -4.141118                                 3.183319    -1.301   0.226       -11.34229                            3.060049


   23. regress yl igdp pbal                                                 8so


         Source                 I                        SS                  df       MS                 Number of                  obs =                  13
                                                                                                                   98
                      --       +                 …………-__--__-------------------                                          F(     3,                    9)                   8.77
   Model I 18.3969948                                                          3        6.13233159                       Prob > F                            =          0.0049
Residual I 6.29223691                                                          9        .699137435                       R-squared                           =          0.7451
----------------------------------------                                                                                 Adj    R-squared                    =          0.6602
            Total I 24.6892317                                               12        2.05743597                        Root MSE                            =          .83614
--------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                                       __-------_

                     yl I                            Coef.                 Std. Err.                       t     P>ltl         [95% Conf. Interval]
---------                       +___-______-__-__--__-__-_------_------_------------__--------------_

               igdp            I           .0732094                        .0267804                      2.734   0.023         .0126278                           .133791
               pbal            I           .4229876                        .1002505                      4.219   0.002         .1962054                          .6497699
                sso            I           .8827445                        .7935441                      1.112   0.295         -.912377                          2.677866
               cons            f           -3.57223                        2.666181                     -1.340   0.213         -9.60355                           2.45909


24. use "Q:\Application Data\!FIAL\Reg\Ssa.dta', clear

25. edit
-        preserve
    (1 var, 35 obs pasted into editor)
-       drop               in 12

26. SSA sample of 34 countries w/o Eq. Guinea
unrecognized command
r(199);

27. regress yl igdp pbal reer

         Source I                                       SS                  df                      MS                   Number of obs =                                         30
--------- +------------------------------                                                                                F(     3,              26)          =            3.41
   Model I 47.4031351         3    15.801045                                                                             Prob > F                            =          0.0322
Residual j 120.403865        26 4.63091789                                                                               R-squared                           =          0.2825
---------+------------------------------                                                                                 Adj R-squared                       =          0.1997
   Total I      167.807      29 5.78644829                                                                               Root MSE                            =           2.152


                     yl         I    Coef.   Std. Err.          t      P>Itl          [95% Conf. Interval]
                                     …________+…___________________________________________________________________
               igdp            I  .0709506    .0293866       2.414     0.023          .0105456      .1313556
               pbal            I  -.150774    .0871176      -1.731     0.095        -. 3298468      .0282988
               reer            I -.0080481    .0348561      -0.231     0.819        -,0796959        .0635997
               cons            I  .4982829    .7551036       0.660     0.515        -1.053855         2.05042
    -----------------------------------------------------------                                                                 __----------------_



28. regress yl igdp

         Source   SS          df         MS                                                                              Number of               obs =                           33
                 …-------+______________________________                                                                 Fj     1,               31)         =             4.57
   Model 1 23.1857357          1 23.1857357                                                                              Prob > F                            =          0.0405
Residual I 157.274265         31 5.07336338                                                                              R-squared                           =          0.1285
---------+------------------------------                                                                                 Adj R-squared                       =          0.1004
   Total I      180.46        32 5.63937501                                                                              Root MSE                            =          2.2524
    --------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                                   __-------_

                     yl I                       Coef.   Std. Err.           t      P>)tI          E95% Conf. Intervall
                                                …________+-___________________________________________________________________
               igdp I                        .0579629    .0271136        2.138     0.041          .0026643      .1132615
               cons j                       .2650391     .6981817         0.380    0.707         -1.158912       1.68899


29. regress yl igdp sa

         Source                 I                       SS                   df                     MS                   Number          of obs =                                33
______-___+_____________________________                                                                                 F(     2,               30)         =             3.60
    Model I 34.8926082        2 17.4463041                                                                               Prob > F                            =          0.0396
Residual  I 145.567392       30 4.85224641                                                                               R-squared                           =          0.1934
---------+------------------------------                                                                                 Adj R-squared                       =          0.1396
    Total I       180.46     32 5.63937501                                                                               Root MSE                            =          2.2028
    --------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                                   __-------_

                      yl     Coef.
                                I    Std.    Err.         t     P>ltl           [95% Conf. Interval)
                             …________+-___________________________________________________________________
               igdp I     .040957     .0286875         1.428    0.164         -. 0176308     .0995448
                  sa 1  2.889216      1.860078         1.553    0.131         -. 9095688     6.688002
               cons I -1.384245       1.262399       -1.097     0.282         -3.962408      1.193918


30. regress yl igdp sb

         Source                 I                        SS                  df                     MS                   Number          of obs =                                33
--------- +------------------------------                                                                                F(     2,                30)         =            2.33
    Model I 24.2903765      2 12.1451883                                                                                 Prob > F                             =         0.1143
Residual  I 156.169624     30 5.20565413                                                                                 R-squared                            =         0.1346
--------- +------------------------------                                                                                Adj R-squared                        =         0.0769
    Total I      180.46    32 5.63937501                                                                                 Root MSE                             =         2.2816


                      yl I                           Coef.                 Std. Err.                       t     P>ltI         (95% Conf. Interval)
                                                                                                      99
           igdp I  .0538168                                              .028902           1.862     0.072       -. 005209                    .1128426
              sb I .9136341                                              1.98335           0.461     0.648      -3.136908                     4.964176
           cons 1 -.3511105                                             1.513022          -0.232     0.818      -3.441113                     2.738892
----------------------------------------------------------                                                      __-----------------_



31.        regress                  yl        igdp             sc

  Source I        SS         df        MS                                                                     Number of obs                =              33
---------+-----------------------------                                                                       F( 2,       30)              =           2.53
   Model I 26.0566935         2 13.0283467                                                                    Prob > F                     =        0.0964
Residual I 154.403307        30    5.1467769                                                                  R-squared                    =        0.1444
---------+------------------------------                                                                      Adj R-squared                =        0.0873
   Total 1       180.46      32 5.63937501                                                                    Root MSE                     =        2.2687


                  yl I                    Coef.    Std. Err.          t      P>Itl          [95% Conf. Interval]
                                          …_______+…___________________________________________________________________
            igdp I                    .0497463     .0294417        1.690     0.101        -.0103817       .1098744
              sc 1                    2.376663     3.182158        0.747     0.461        -4.122172      8.875497
            cons I                   -.6161229     1.373481       -0.449     0.657        -3,421145      2.188899


32.         regress                 yl        igdp             ad
  Source   I       SS         df         MS                                                                   Number of obs                 =             33
---------+------------------------------                                                                      F( 2,       30)               =          3.19
    Model I 31.6103796         2 15.8051898                                                                   Prob > F                      =       0.0557
Residual   I 148.849621       30 4.96165403                                                                   R-squared                     =       0.1752
                  …----
          +…-----------------------------                                                                     Adj R-squared                 =       0.1202
    Total  I      180.46      32 5.63937501                                                                   Root MSE                      =       2.2275


                  y1 I                    Coef.     Std. Err.           t      P>Iti          [95% Conf. Interval]
                                         …-_-__---+-___________________________________________________________________
            igdp I                     .0417369     .0295639         1.412     0.168        -.0186406       .1021143
              sd 1                     3.452629     2.649643         1.303     0.202        -1.958664       8.863922
            cons I                    -1.305248     1.388865        -0.940     0.355        -4.141689       1.531193


33.         regress                  yl        igdp            so

  Source I       SS       df        MS                                                                        Number of obs                 =                 33
---------+------------------------------                                                                      F( 2,       30)               =              2.74
   Model I     27.8988     2     13.9494                                                                      Prob > F                      =           0.0805
Residual I    152.5612    30 5.08537335                                                                       R-squared                                 0.1546
---------+------------------------------                                                                      Adj R-squared                 =           0.0982
   Total 1      180.46    32 5.63937501                                                                       Root MSE                                  2.2551
 --------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                      __-------_

                   yl I                            Coef.                Std. Err.            t       e>Itl          [95% Conf. Interval]

             igdp             I          .0459464                         .029878          1.538     0.135       -. 0150725                      .1069653
                s0            1          .5527378                       .5741546      '    0.963     0.343       -. 6198424                      1.725318
             cons             I        -. 9119829                       1.408343          -0.648     0.522       -3.788204                       1.964238
 ----------------------------------------------------------                                                         __-----------------_



34.          regress                  yl        igdp            ss2

  Source  I        SS        df         MS                                                                    Number of obs                  =                28
---------        …------------------------------                                                              F) 2,       25)=                             5.79
    Model I   54.576663        2 27.2883315                                                                   Prob > F                       =          0.0086
Residual  I 117.830123       25   4.71320492                                                                  R-squared                      =          0.3166
---------+------------------------------                                                                      Adj R-squared                  =          0.2619
    Total I 172.406786       27 6.38543652                                                                    Root MSE                       =            2.171


                    yl        I                    Coef.                Std.   Err.              t   P>Itl           [95% Conf.               Interval]

              igdp I  .0340809                                          .0286704           1.189     0.246        -. 0249668                   .0931287
                ss2 1 1.389356                                          .5405882           2.570     0.017          .2759941                   2.502718
              cons I -3.350772                                          1.566753          -2.139     0.042          -6.57756                  -.1239843
  ----------------------------------------------------------                                                        __-----------------_



 35.          regress                  yl       igdp            ss3

   Source I        SS          df          MS                                                                  Number of obs =                                28
 _________+_______________________---__--                                                                      F) 2,       25) =                           3.86
    Model 1 40.6603241           2    20.330162                                                                Prob > F        =                        0.0347
 Residual 1 131.746462         25 5.26985848                                                                   R-squared       -                        0.2358
                …--------+…---------…-…--
                               --------------                                                                  Adj R-squared   =                        0.1747
    Total I 172.406786         27 6.38543652                                                                   Root MSE        =                        2.2956


                     yl I                           Coef.               Std. Err.                t    P>itj           [95% Conf. Interval]

               igdp I                       .0398629                     .0304811           1.308     0.203       -. 0229141                        .10264
                ss3 1                       1.377221                      .7619705          1.807     0.083       -.1920865                       2.946529
                                                                                                                 100
            cons I -3.105879                                             1.991017                     -1.560   0.131     -7.206455                      .9946976
----------------------------------------------------------                                                                __-----------------_



36.         regress                  yl       igdp            *so

  Source  I        SS        df        MS                                                                              Number of obs                =                28
---------+------------------------------                                                                               F) 2,       25)              =             4.10
    Model I 42.5894855         2 21.2947428                                                                            Prob > F                     =          0.0288
Residual  I 129.817301       25 5.19269202                                                                             R-squared                    =          0.2470
---------+------------------------------                                                                               Adj R-squared                =          0.1868
    Total I 172.406786       27 6.38543652                                                                             Root MSE                     =          2.2787
--------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                              __-------_

                  yl        I                    Coef.                   Std.           Err.              t    P>ltl       [95% Conf.               Interval]
---------                    +--_------------------------------------------------__--------------_

            igdp I                      .0342527                         .0311896                      1.098   0.283     -. 0299836                     .0984889
              sso 1                     1.386252                         .7219546                      1.920   0.066     -. 1006416                     2.873145
            cons I                      -3.11413                         1.893874                     -1.644   0.113     -7.014631                       .7863769


37.         use          "Q:\Application                                 Data\!HIAL\Reg\1da-1.dta", clear

38. edit
- preserve
(1 var, 23 obs pasted into editor)

39. IDa sample of 24 countries
unrecognized command
r(199);

40. regress yl igdp pbal reer

      Source                I                       SS                        df                     MS                Number    of obs =         15
                                                  …--------+________---_----------------3,
                                                                                    F)                                              11) =      0.76
    Model I 8.95104529        3 2.98368176                                                                             Prob > F         = 0.5394
Residual  I 43.1662891       11    3.9242081                                                                           R-squared        = 0.1717
---------+------------------------------                                                                               Adj R-squared    = -0.0541
    Total I 52.1173344       14 3.72266674                                                                             Root MSE         =    1.981


                  yl        I
                           Coef.     Std.    Err.         t     P>itl          195% Conf. Interval]
                           …--------+…___________________________________________________________________
             igdp I     .075036       .0789979        0.950     0.363        -. 0988371      .2489091
             pbal I -. 1635309        .1196413       -1.367     0.199        -. 4268596      .0997977
             reer I   .0184606        .0189203        0.976     0.350        -. 0231827      .0601038
            -cons I   .2767205       1.889335         0.146     0.886        -3.881678       4.435119
----------------------------------------------------------                                                                __-----------------_



41. regress yl igdp

  Source  I         SS       df         MS                                                                             Number of obs                =       20
=--------+------------------------------                                                                               F( 1,     18)                =    0.26
    Model I .862141141        1   .862141141                                                                           Prob > F                     = 0.6141
Residual  j  58.9353588      18    3.2741866                                                                           R-squared                    = 0.0144
-------- +------------------------------                                                                               Adj R-squared                = -0.0403
    Total I      59.7975     19 3.14723684                                                                             Root MSE                     = 1.8095
--------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                              __-------_

                  yl I                     Coef.   Std. Err.          t      P>ltl          [95% Conf. Interval]
                                           …________+…___________________________________________________________________
             igdp i                     .0191141    .0372491       0.513     0.614        -. 0591434      .0973716
            -cons 1                     1.595124   .9303257        1.715     0.104        -.3594175       3.549666
 ----------------------------------------------------------                                                                __-----------------_



42. regress yl sa

  Source  I       SS         df         MS                                                                             Number of obs                 =               22
---------+------------------------------                                                                               F) 1,     20)                 =            5.12
   Model I 13.8221346          1 13.8221346                                                                            Prob > F                      =         0.0349
Residual I 53.9815005        20 2.69907502                                                                             R-squared                     =         0.2039
 -------- +------------------------------                                                                              Adj R-squared                 =         0.1640
   Total I 67.8036351        21 3.22874453                                                                             Root MSE                      =         1.6429
 --------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                             __-------_

                  yl I                            Coef.                  Std. Err.                        t    P>Itl       [95% Conf. Interval]
 _________+____________________________________________________________________

               sa 1                    6.39195                           2.824576                      2.263   0.035       .4999874                     12.28391
            -cons I                  -2.974341                           2.237775                     -1.329   0.199      -7.642257                     1.693575
 ----------------------------------------------------------                                                                __-----------------_



43. regress yl sb

      Source I                                       SS                        df                    MS                Number of obs                 =             22
                                                  …--------+…--…--…-----------------------
                                                                                     F( 1,                                       20)                 =           2.08
   Model                    i 6.39118145      1 6.39118145                                                             Prob > F                      =         0.1646
Residual                    I 61.4124537     20 3.07062268                                                             R-squared                     =         0.0943
--------                    +------------------------------                                                            Adj R-squared                 =         0.0490
   Total                    I 67.8036351     21 3.22874453                                                             Root MSE                      =         1.7523
                                                                                                         101


                  yl I                           Coef.                  Std. Err.               t      P>Itl      (95% Conf. Interval]
                                  ---------
                           +…___________________________________________________________________
              sb I  4.245696                                            2.942873               1.443   0.165     -1.89303                       10.38442
            cons I -1.532802                                             2.49576              -0.614   0.546    -6.738866                       3.673263
----------------------------------------------------------                                                        __-----------------_



44.        regress                  yl sc

     Source I   SS           df            MS          Number of obs                                                                        =           22
              …----_---+…_------------ …--
                                  -----------          F( 1,     20)                                                                        =         8.11
   Model I 19.5702095          1 19.5702095            Prob > F                                                                             =       0.0099
Residual I 48.2334256        20 2.41167128             R-squared                                                                            =       0.2886
              …+-------…------------------------------ Adj R-squared                                                                        =       0.2531
   Total I 67.8036351        21 3.22874453             Root MSE                                                                             =        1.553


                  yl I Coef.      Std. Err.           t      P>Itl         [951 Conf. Intervall
                      …--------+…___________________________________________________________________
              sc 1  8.429027      2.958958         2.849     0.010         2.256749       14.60131
            cons I -2.585321      1.652726        -1.564     0.133        -6.032847       .8622048
----------------------------------------------------------                                                        __-----------------_



45.         regress                 yl        ad

     Source I                                        SS                   df           MS                      Number of obs                =            22
                                             …-------+__-------------------------F(                                1,    20)                =         5.54
     Model I 14.7084728           1                                            14.7084728                      Prob > F                     =       0.0289
Residual I 53.0951623            20                                            2.65475812                      R-squared                    =       0.2169
-----------------   ------------                                                …----------                    Adj R-squared                =       0.1778
     Total I 67.8036351          21                                            3.22874453                      Root MSE                     =       1.6293


                  yl I Coef.      Std. Err.          t      P>Itt          (95% Conf. Interval]
                      …-------_+…___________________________________________________________________
              sd 1   7.47646      3.176323         2.354    0.029          .8507657      14.10215
            -ons I -2.586145      1.990525        -1.299    0.209        -6.738307       1.566017


46. regress                         yl so

      Source I    SS         df         MS                                                                     Number of obs                =                22
               …----
         +…-----------------------------                                                                       F) 1,       20)              =              7.34
   Model I 18.2075117         1 18.2075117                                                                     Prob > F                     =           0.0135
Residual I 49.5961234        20 2.47980617                                                                     R-squared                    =           0.2685
---------+------------------------------                                                                       Adj R-squared                =           0.2320
   Total I 67.8036351        21 3.22874453                                                                     Root MSE                     =           1.5747
--------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                       __-------_

                  yl I Coef.     Std. Err.          t      P>Itl          (95% Conf. Interval]
                     …---__---+…___________________________________________________________________
              so 1  2.136096     .7883231         2.710    0.013          .4916824      3.780509
            cons I -4.261412     2.344989       -1.817     0.084        -9.152973       .6301486


47. regress                          yl         ss2

   Source I                SS              df        MS                                                        Number of obs                 =                22
---------  +------------------------------                                                                     F) 1,       20)               =             2.66
     Model 1 7.96808223                     1 7.96808223                                                       Prob > F                      -          0.1183
Residual I 59.8355529                      20 2.99177764                                                       R-squared                     =          0.1175
---------+------------------------------                                                                       Adj R-squared                 =          0.0734
     Total I 67.8036351                    21 3.22874453                                                       Root MSE                      =          1.7297
 --------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                      __-------_

                   yl I     Coef.      Std. Err.              t       P>ItI            [95% Conf. Interval]
                         ---------
                 +-___________________________________________________________________
             ss2 )     1.297541        .7950765            1.632      0.118          -.3609593     2.956042
           -cons I -1.322743           2.085604          -0.634       0.533          -5.673236     3.027751
 ----------------------------------------------------------                                                        __-----------------_



48.          regress                  yl        ss3

    Source                   I             SS              df                           MS                     Number of obs                  -               22
---------                    +------------------------------                                                   F( 1,       20)                =            4.55
      Model                  I 12.5561083                    1                 12.5561083                      Prob > F                       =         0.0456
Residual                     I 55.2475268                  20                  2.76237634                      R-squared                      =         0.1852
      --------               +…-----------------------                                                         Adj R-squared                  =         0.1444
      Total                   I        67.8036351                         21   3.22874453                      Root MSE                       =           1.662


                    yl I                           Coef.                Std. Err.                t     P>ItI        [95% Conf. Interval]

               ss3 1                    1.973779                        .9257901               2.132   0.046      .0426152                        3.904944
              cons I                   -3.520842                        2.626326              -1.341   0.195     -8.999262                        1.957578
  ----------------------------------------------------------                                                        __-----------------_
                                                                                                                                                                                                     102
      49.                  regress                           yl ago

        Source       I               SS              df         MS                                                                                                                                                                 Number of obs                                -                    21
            ----------------------------------------                                                                                                                                                                               F(   1,    19)                              -                  2.24
         Model       I 7.06060179                      1 7.06060179                                                                                                                                                                Prob > F                                     -             0.1511
      Residual       1 59.9451111                    19  3.15500585                                                                                                                                                                R-squared                                    -             0.1054
                           …________+____-______________----------                                                                                                                                                                 Adj R-squared                                -             0.0583
         Total       1 67.0057128                    20  3.35028564                                                                                                                                                                Root MSE                                    -              1.7762

                                                                                                                                                                                                …-------------------------------------------------------------------__-------_
                                    yl       I                            Coef.                           Std.                   Err.                                   t                        P>Itl                                       [95%        Conf.                  Intervall
      ---------                          _---_---------___--------------__-__--______________________________-


                             sso             I                   .5879509                           .3930251                                                      1.496                          0.151              -. 2346601       1.410562
                           cons              I                   .1255776                             1.30245                                                     0.096                          0.924              -2.600482        2.851637
                                                                                         ----------------------------                                                                                -    ___________________________
                                                                                                                                                                                                …------------------


50.   regress                            yl igdp                          cl

           Source                            I               SS              df         MS                                                                                                                                         Number of obs                                    -                50
      ---------                              +------------------------------                                                                                                                                                       Fl    2,   47)                                   -             5.36
            Model                            1 36.5294502                      2 18.2641251                                                                                                                                        Prob > F                                         -         0.0080
      Residual                               I 160.21535                     47  3.40883723                                                                                                                                        R-squared                                        -         0.1857
           ------                            +------------------------------                                                                                                                                                       Adj R-squared                                    -         0.1510
             Total                           1         196.7448              49        4.0152                                                                                                                                      Root MSE                                         -         1.8463

      --------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                                                                                                                                                    __-------_


                                    yl I                                  Coef.                           Std.                   Err.                                   t                            P>Itl                                    (95%       Conf.                      Interval]
                                                             …--------+…___________________________________________________________________
                        igdp                 I                  .072157                                   .0242516                                             2.975                                 0.005                                     .0233692                                     .1209449
                           cl                I               -. 0356488                                     .204256                                          -0.175                                  0.862                                  -. 4465588                                      .3752612
                       -cons                 i                 .7982857                                   1.208464                                             0.661                                 0.512                                   -1.632829                                      3.229401


51                     regress                           yl igdp                         fp

           Source I         SS                     df            MS                                                                                                                                                                Number of obs                                    =           50
      -------           …--------------------------------                                                                                                                                                                          F(   2,    47)                                   =       5.35
            Model l 36.5070108                        2   18.2535054                                                                                                                                                               Prob   > F                                       -    0.0080
      Residual    1 160.237789                     47     3.40931467                                                                                                                                                               R-squared                                             0.1856
      --------- +------------------------------                                                                                                                                                                                    Adi R-squared=                                        0.1509
            Total l    196.7448                    49           4.0152                                                                                                                                                             Root MSE                                         -1.8464

      --------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                                                                                                                                                    __-------_


                                    yl       I                            Coef.                           Std.                   Err.                                   t                            P>ltl                                    [95% Conf.                            Interval]
                                                             …-_--_--_+…___________________________________________________________________
                        igdp                 I                   .0747254                                 .0234818                                                3.182                              0.003                                    .0274861                                      .1219646
                            fp               I                     .002157                                .0139601                                                0.155                              0.878                                  -. 0259271                                      .0302412
                       -cons                 I                   .4643659                                 1.058203                                                0.439                              0.663                                  -1.664464                                       2.593196


52.                    regress yl                                     igdp pbal c1

                Source                       I                                   SS                                df                                MS                                                                            Number of obs                                    =                    13
        -------- +------------------------------                                                                                                                                                                                   Fl 3,       9)                                   =                 8.40
         Model  l 18.1907655         3     6.0635885                                                                                                                                                                               Prob > F                                         =             0.0056
      Residual  1 6.49846619         9   .722051798                                                                                                                                                                                R-squared                                        =             0.7368
      --------- +------------------------------                                                                                                                                                                                    Adj R-squared                                    =             0.6491
          Total  l 24.6892317       12   2.05743597                                                                                                                                                                                Root MSE                                         =             .84974


                                    yl I                                  Coef.                           Std.                   Err.                                   t                            ?>Itt                                    (95%       Coaf.                      Interval]
       ---------                                 +--------------_-_--_-------------------------------__-----__-_____-_


                           igdp I                              .0607314                                   .0279491                                            2.173                                  0.058                                  -. 0024938                                      .1239566
                           pbal                  I              .3964029                                   .1017519                                           3.896                                  0.004                                    .1662242                                      .6265816
                              cl                 I           -. 2186978                                   .2289352                                           -0.955                                  0.364                                  -. 7365853                                      .2991897
                       _cons I                                  .4686991                                  1.385813                                            0.338                                  0.743                                  -2.666227                                       3.603625


53.                    regress                           yl igdp                         pbal             fp

                 I
                Source     SS       df           MS                                                                                                                                                                                Number of obs                                    =                     13
                   …-__-_--_+______-----_-----------------                                                                                                                                                                         Fl 3,       91                                   =                  7.35
         Model   I 17.5331044        3   5.84436812                                                                                                                                                                                Prob  > F                                        =             0.0086
      Residual   1 7.15612734        9     .79512526                                                                                                                                                                               R-squared                                        =             0.7102
         ---------
                +------------------------------                                                                                                                                                                                    Adj R-squared                                    =             0.6135
         Total   1 24.6892317       12   2.05743597                                                                                                                                                                                Root MSE                                         =                .8917


                                    yl           I                           Coef.                        Std.                   Err.                                       t                        P>Itl                                     (95% Conf.                               Interval]

                           igdp                  1              .0678961                                   .0292473                                            2.321                                 0.045                                    .0017341                                         .134058
                           pbal        l                        .4086553                                     .106403                                           3.841                                 0.004                                      .167955                                      .6493557
                                    fp i                     -. 0006547                                    .0164623                                          -0.040                                  0.969                                  -. 0378951                                      .0365857
                           cons                  1             -. 654704                                     1.23902                                         -0.528                                  0.610                                  -3.457562                                       2.148154
           --      -   -    -   -   -    -       -   -   -   -    -   -      -   -   -    -   -   -   -    -   -   -     -   -   -   -   -   -   -   -   -    -     -       -   -   -   -   -    -     -   -   -   -   -   -   -    -   -         -
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                _ _- -    -   -   -   -   -     -       -     -    -   -   -   -   -
                                                                                                           103


54.           regress                  yl        igdp            cl

        Source I        SS         df         MS                                                                    Number of obs=                                         25
                …+--------------------------------------                                                            F( 2,       22)=                                    3.58
         Model I 32.7526662         2 16.3763331                                                                    Prob > F                                =        0.0449
      Residual 1 100.525733        22    4.5693515                                                                  R-squared                               =        0.2457
      -------- +-----------------------------                                                                       Adj R-squared                           =        0.1772
         Total 1 133.278399        24 5.55326664                                                                    Root MSE                                =        2.1376
      --------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                             ___-______

                        yl I                            Coef.                   Std. Err.          t       P>jtI              (95% Conf. Interval]
       __-___-__-___--__---_--_-------_---_--_________-___--__---_--__--_--__-_______

                  igdp I  .0747576                                               .031632       2.363       0.027          .0091569                              .1403583
                    cl I -.1268033                                              .3072644      -0.413       0.684         -.7640306                                .510424

                  cons 1                       1.039948                         1.769565          0.588    0.563             -2.629906                          4.709802


 55.           regross                  yl igdp                   fp

            Source I                                        SS                    df         MS                     Number of obs-                                        25
      --------- +------------------------------                                                                         Fl      2,                   221-              3.48
           Model                   I 32.0282449                                    2    16.0141224                  Prob > F                                -0.0486
      Residual                     1 101.250154                                   22    4.60227975                  R-squared                               - 0.2403
      ---------                   +--------------------                                     ------                  Adj R-squared                           =  0.1712
           Total                   1        133.278399                            24    5.55326664                  Root MSE                                - 2.1453
       --------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                             __-------_

                     yl I       Coef.    Std. Err.          t       P>Itl          (95% Conf. Interval]
                        …---_-___+…___________________________________________________________________
                  igdp I     .0782984    .0307656         2.545     0.018          .0144944      .1421024
                     fp 1 -.0023082      .0213529        -0.108     0.915        -.0465913       .0419749
                 -cons I     .5294296    1.586293         0.334     0.742        -2.760341         3.8192
       ------------------------------------------------------------                                                               __---------------_



 56.               regress                  yi cl
             Source I                                       SS                    df         MS                         Number of obs -                                   13
       --------- +------------------------------                                                                        F(       1,                  11)=               0.71
          Model I 2.80627706      1 2.80627706                                                                          Prob > F                            =         0.4182
       Residual 1 43.6367998     11   3.9669818                                                                         R-squared                           =  0.0604
       ---------------------------------------                                                                          Adj R-squared                       = -0.0250
          Total 1 46.4430769     12 3.87025641                                                                          Root MSE                            =         1.9917
        --------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                            __-------_

                      yl I         Coef.   Std. Err.           t      P>Itl          195% Conf. Interval]
                         …--------+…___________________________________________________________________
                      cl I          .302    .3590639         0.841    0.418         -.4882944      1.092294
                    cons I          .906    1.773086         0.511    0.619         -2.996535      4.808535
        ----------------------------------------------------------                                                            __-----------------_



 57.                regress                  yi fp
              Source I                                       SS                    df        MS                         Number of obs-                                     14
        --------- +------------------------------                                                                       F(        1,                 12)=               0.06
             Model                   I        .243178132                            1   .243178132                      Prob > F      =0.8098
        Residual                     I 48.2253931                                  12   4.01878276                      R-squared     -0.0050
        ------                      +_____-__----------------------                                                     Adj R-squared   -0.0779
             Total                   I        48.4685713                           13   3.72835164                      Root MSE      -2.0047
         --------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                            __-------_

                       yl I         Coef.   Std. Err.        t      P>ltl        [95% Conf. Interval]
                          …--------+…___________________________________________________________________
                       fp I    .0067792     .0275588       0.246    0.810       -.0532664     .0668247
                     cons 1   2.038286      1.674622       1.217    0.247       -1.610403     5.686974
         ----------------------------------------------------------                                                           __-----------------_



  58.             regress                  yl igdp cl
           Source I        SS      df        MS                                                                         Number of obs=                                      45
         ---------+------------------------------                                                                       Fl 2,     42) =                                  6.73
            Model I 45.0284709       2 22.5142355                                                                       Prob > F       =                              0.0029
         Residual 1 140.494641      42 3.34511051                                                                       R-squared      =                              0.2427
         ---------+------------------------------                                                                       Adj R-squared =                               0.2066
            Total 1 185.523112      44 4.21643437                                                                       Root MSE       =                               1.829


                            yl I                            Coef.                Std. Err.             t    P>Itl   .             (95% Conf. Interval]

                      igdp I  .0679011                                           .0243476          2.789    0.008              .0187656                              .1170365
                        cl I -.2698523                                           .2270044         -1.189    0.241             -.7279657                              .1882611
                      cons 1  1.898222                                           1.302319          1.458    0.152             -.7299646                              4.526409
                                                                                                                    104




59.            regress                           yl          igdp          fp

        Source                           I                            SS               df           MS                             Number             of obs      =         45
      ---     ~-----+------------------------------42)
                                             F( 2,                                                                                                                =       5.92
          Model                          I            40.7963603        2   20.3981802                                             Prob > F.                      =     0.0054
      Residual                           I            144.726752       42   3.44587504                                             R-squared                      =     0.2199
                                                         …-----+…------------------------------                                    Adj R-squared                  =     0.1828
               Total                      1           185.523112       44   4.21643437                                             Root MSE                       =     1.8563


                            yl            I                          Coef.           Std.    Err.           t       P>Itl                 [95%            Conf.   Interval]

                    igdp                  I            .0761003                      .0238759             3.187     0.003                .0279168                     .1242838
                      fp                  I           -. 0057968                     .0152948            -0.379     0.707                -. 036663                    .0250693
                    cons                  I            .8640155                      1.137184             0.760     0.452               -1.430914                     3.158945



60.                 regress                           yl            igdp        cl

              Source                         I                         SS               df          MS                              Number of obs                 -          21
                                                                    …----------+______________________                              Fl 2,      18)                -        4.46
         Model   I 41.9723863         2   20.9861931                                                                                Prob > F                      -      0.0267
      Residual   I 84.6304702        18 4.70169279                                                                                  R-squared                     -      0.3315
      -…------+------------------------------                                                                                       Adj R-squared                 -      0.2573
          Total  1 126.602857        20   6.33014283                                                                                Root        MSE               -      2.1683

                                                                                                                       …-------------------------------------------------------------------__-------_
                              yl             I                        Coef.          Std.    Err.           t       P>ltl                  [95% Conf. Interval]
                                                                    …________+------_---------------------------------------------__-------_______
                      igdp I                             .0641733                    .0328094             1.956     0.066                -. 0047566                    .1331032
                         cl 1                           -. 5429428                   .3793123            -1.431     0.169                -1.339848                     .2539628
                      cons 1                             3.178855                     2.10781             1.508     0.149                 -1.24949                     7.607199
      -----------------------------------------------------------                                                                           __----------------_




  61.                regress                           yl           igdp        fp

        Source   I         SS        df          MS                                                                                 Number of obs                 -          21
      _________+______________________________                                                                                      Ft   2,     18)               =        3.66
         Model   I 36.6317884          2  18.3158942                                                                                Prob > F                      =      0.0462
      Residual   1   89.9710681      18   4.99839267                                                                                R-squared                     -      0.2893
      --------   +------------------------------
                                            -Adj                                                                                         R-squared                =      0.2104
          Total   I 126.602857       20   6.33014283                                                                                Root MSE                      =      2.2357

                                                                                                                       …-------------------------------------------------------------------__-------_
                              yl             I                        Coef.          Std.    Err.               t    P>ItI                 [95% Conf.                 Interval]
                                                                    …________+…___________________________________________________________________
                      igdp I                               .074002                   .0324816             2.278     0.035          .0057607       .1422432
                         fp I                           -. 0253995                   .0274083            -0.927     0.366         -. 0829823      .0321833
                      cons 1                             2.028492                    1.951655             1.039     0.312         -2.071783       6.128767
                                                                                                                       …_____________________________________________________________________________




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62.   regressyl igdp gd

         Source            I                  SS    -- df-----------------------------
                                                                   MS
                                          _____________________-_-_-------Ft
                                                                                                                           Number
                                                                                                                            t 2,
                                                                                                                                   2,
                                                                                                                                           of obs -
                                                                                                                                              56)-
                                                                                                                                              561 -
                                                                                                                                                                                59
                                                                                                                                                                               .61Sample
                                                                                                                                                                             4.61
                                                                                                                                                                                                    ofHTIAL
                                                                                                                                                                                                         andnon-HIAL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   SSA
          Model I1                         35.5474       2       17.7737                                                   Prob      >     F              -0.0140
      Residual 1                        215.989211     56 3.SS695019                                                       R-quared                       -               0.1413            counties (equations 62-65).
                                               ---------             +-------------
                                                                    ---------------                                        Adj R-squared                  -               0.1107
          Total            I            251.536611                    58      4.33683811                                   Root MSE                       -1.9639



                 yl        I                     Coef.             Std.         Ert.                  t           P>Itl           [951 Conf.              Inteovall

            igdp           )                 .0508029              .0202759                      2.506            0.01S        .010185s                           .0914203
               gd          I                   .181987             .1523484                      1.195            0.237      -. 1232035                           .4871776
           _cons           I                 .2994626               .5486399                     0.546            0.s57      -. 7995951                             1.39852


63.        regress                 yl         igdp      nd

           Source          I               SS               df                              MS                             Number of obs                                        59
      ---------            I------------------------------                                                                 Fl    2,     56)               -                  4.45
            Model           i    34.4732882                   2                   17.2366441                               Prob > g                       -               0.0161
      Residual             1     217.063322                 56                    3.87613076                               F-squared                      .               0.1371
       ---------                +------------------------------                                                            Adj R-squared                  -               0.1062
            Total           1 251.536611                    58                    4.33683811                               Root MSE                       -               1.9688


                  yl       I                     Coef.             Std.         Err.                  t           P>Itl           [95.         Conf.      Interval)

               igdp        I                 .0507734              .0204251                      2.486            0.016        .0098571                           .0916897
                  nd       1                 .1666096              .1558552                      1.069            0.290      -. 1456058                           .4788251
              _cons        1                 .3823677              .5325966                      0.718            0.476      -. 6845514                           1.449287


64.           rag9res              yl         igdp       nt

         Source            I                     SS                df                       MS                             Numbe. of obs                      -                  59
                       …-               -          -               ……                                                      Ft 2,        56)                   -               3.89
           Model           1            30.7061703                  2             15.3530852                               Prob > F                           -            0.0261
      Residual             1              220.83044                56             3.94340072                               R-squared                          -            0.1221
      -----------                       _--_-------------------------                                                      Adj R-3quared                      -            0.0907
           Total           1            251.536611                 58             4.33683811                               Root MSE                           -            1.9858


                  yl I                           Coef.             Std.          Err,                 t           P>ltt           [95P         Conf.          Interval)

               igdp            I                 .05409              .0204072                    2.651            0.010         .0132094                              .0949706
                  nt           1               .540314              1.318324                     0.410            0.683       -2.100607                               3.181235
              _cons            1               .441214            .5677195                       0.777            0.440       - 6960647                               1.578493




65.           regress                  yl     igdp         pb.l    gd

         Source   I              Ss              df                                         MS                             Number of obs -                                       13
       --------- _ -----------------------------                                                 __                        F(   3,       9)-                                  7.56
           Model  1 17.6757348                     3                               5.89191162                              Prob > F          -                             0.0079
      Residual    1 7.01349685                    9                                .779277428                              R-squared         -                             0.7159
      ---------  +------------------------------                                                                           Adj R-squared                                   0.6212
           Total 1 24.6892317                    12                                2.05743597                              Root MSE          -                             .88277


                   yl I                          Coef.              Std.         Err.                     t       P>ltl            t95~        Conf.          Interval)

               igdp            I              .0540636              .0431378                       1.253          0.242         -. 043521                             .1516482
               pbal            I               .3748926             .1305501                       2.872          0.018          .0795677                             .6702174
                   gd          I               .0945458             .2200268                       0.430          0.678       -. 4031895                               .5922811
                cons           I            -. 5827297              .7338346                     -0.794           0.448       -2.242779                                 1.07732


66.        regress
          Source               I
                                       yi      igdp        pbl     nd                                                                                                                      Sample   of HIAL countries
                                                      SS              df          MS                                        Number             of   obo -                          13
                                                                  _________________-------                                  F)  3,                   9-                        7.36        (equations   66-68).
           Model        1 17.5365993                                        3      5.84553309                               7rb    > F                            -         0.0086
       Residual         1 7.15263243                                        9      .794736936                               R-squared                             -         0.7103
       -- _--------------_----------------------                                                                            Adj R-squared-                                  0.6137
           Total        1 24.6892317                                       12      2.05743597                               Root MSE                              -         .89148


                      yl       I                     Coef.          Std.         Err.                     t        9>Itl           (90          Conft             Intervall

                igdp           I               .0656117              .0438421                      1.497           0.169          -. 0335661                           .1647895
                pbal           1               .4019903              .1335466                      3.010           O.01S            .0998868                           .7040938
                   nd          I               .0159422              .2061576                      0.077           0.940          -. 4504186                           .4823031
                cons           I             -. 6605204              .8272464                    -0.798            0.445          -2.531882                            1.210841


67.           regress                   yl     igdp        pb.1     nt

           Source        I              SS                                 df                MS                             Nuber     of obs                      -               13
       ----------------------------------------                                                                              t(   3,      9)-                                  7.75
             Model       1 17.8009665                                       3          5.93365551                           Prob > F                                        0.0073
       Residual          t    6.88826516                                    9          .765362795                           R-squared                             -         0.7210
           __----_-_----------------------_-----
         ---                                                                                                                Adj R-squared                         -         0.6280
             Total       1 24.6892317                                      12          2.05743597                           Root MSE                              -         .87485


                      yl       (                     Coef.           Std.         Err.                        t    P>itt            (95.        Conf.                 Intervall

                igdp           I                 .068682             .0276343                      2.485           0.035             .0061688                              .1311952
                pbal           I              .4002174               .1048591                      3.817           0.004             .1630095                              .6374252
                   nt          I              .8496378                 1.43283                     0.593           0.568          -2.391649                               4.090925
                cons           t              -. 986523              .8378006                    -1.178            0.269            -2.85176                              .9087136




68             regr.ss                  yl      irdp         gd

              Source               I                   SS         df         MS                                              Number of              cbs               *            27
        ---
               Model               1
                                       ------------
                                           24.3634291
                                                              ~-~~-~~--~--------------
                                                                    2 12.1817145
                                                                                                                             F)  2,
                                                                                                                             Frob >F
                                                                                                                                                    24)               -
                                                                                                                                                                      -
                                                                                                                                                                                1.98
                                                                                                                                                                             0.1603
                                                                                                                                        106



       Residual       1             147.843238                         24     6.16013492                            R-squared                     -      0.1415
       _-____--__-------                     -------                   _---------------                             Adj R-squared                 -      0.0699
           Total      1             172.206667                         26     6.62333335                            Root MSE                      -       2.482


                    yl     i                     Coef.           Std.       Err.                     t     P>ltl           (953 Coof.             Interval(

               igdp        I           .0617596                    .032489                         1.901   0.069        -. 0052944                    .1288135
                  gd       I             -. 00667                .2827382                        -0.024    0.981          -. 590213                    .576873
               cons        I           .1407599                  .8939197                          0.157   0.876            -1.7042                    1.98572


69.               yl
            regees.                        igdp        nd
           Source          I                      SI                   df                   MS                      Number         of   obs   -                  27    Sample of HIAL and non-HIAL SSA
                                  ……FModel.                                                                              2        24124.364)I1212.1820555)
                                                                                                                                 24)    -t    1.93                    countries (equations 69-70).
       Residual   1   147.842556                                       24          6.1601065                        R-squared         -    0.1415
       _________+______------------------------                                                                     Adj R-squared     -    0.0699
           Total    1 172.206667                                       26     6.62333335                            Root MSE          -      2.482


                    yl     I                     Coof.           Std.       Err.                     t     P>ltI           (95't    Conf.     Interval]

               igdp        I           .0617787                  .0324526               .          1.904   0.069        -. 0052001                    .1287575
                  od       I       -. 0073963                    .2863334                        -0.026    0.980         -. 5983594                   .5835669
              0000         l         .1397495                    .8778467                          0.159   0.875         -1.672037                    1.951536


70.                               yl        igdp         st
           Source          I SS               df              MS                                                    Number of obs             -               27
       -             …+…----+------------------------------                                                         Fl 2,      24)            -            2.36
           Model I     28.345264                 2      14.172632                                                   Prob > F                  -         0.1155
       Residual    i  143.861403              24       5.99422513                                                   0-Rsquared                          0.1646
                                          --------                  ----
                                                                 --------------------                               Adj R-squared -                     0.0950
            Total          1       172.206667                       26       6.62333335                             Root     MSE              -         2.4483


                    yl     I                 Coof.              Std.        Err.                     t     P>Itl           [95!,    Conf.     Interval]

              igdp          I       .0725918                    .0334015                        2.173      0.040          .0036545                    .1415291
                nt         i      -2.163493                     2.653344                      -0.815       0.423        -7.639726                      3.31274
              0n001                 .3902233                    .8954663                        0.425      0.675        -1.467929                     2.228375




                                      1
71.           regress             y         gd                                                                                                                        Sample   of non-SSA     countries
          -Sour.e-I                    SS                          df                       MS                      Numbo r of          obs                   22
        -------------------------------------                                                                       F(    1,            20)                0.20       (equations    71-73).
            Model       I       .66311806                            1         .66311806                            Prob    5 F               .         0.6615
       Residual         i 67.1405171                                20       3.35702585                             R-squared                           0.0099
                                          ---------            --------
                                                            ----     ----          --------                         Adj R-squared                     -0.0397
            Total          (      67.8036351                        21       3.22874453                             Root     MSE              -         1.8322


                    yl     I               Coef.           Std.      Err.                  t               P>ltl           [95)     Conf.     Intervall
       ----------                …
                                ------------------------------------------------------------                                                    --------
                gd         I         .1905213               .4286724                   0.444               0.661        -. 7036736              1.094716
              Cons         1         1.788342               .6645296                   2.691               0.014          .4021572              3.174526


72 .          rgr.s               yl nd
          Sou:ce           I                      SS               df                       MS                      Number        of obs -                   22
                                                                                                                    F( (-------+--_---------------------------
                                                                                                                            1          20) -            0.14
           Model           I      .487760596                           1  .487760596                                Prob > F                         0.7075
       Residual            1      67.3158745                         20   3.36579373                                    R-squared             -      0.0072
                                     ----- -----
                                             ---                 -----
                                                                  - ----- -----    ----                             Adj R-squared                -- 0.0424
            Total          i      67.8036351                         21   3.22874453                                Root MSE                   -     1.8346


                    yl     I                 Coef.              Std.        Err.                     t     P>lItI          (95      Coon.     2rtervual

                    od                 .1850445                     .48609                       0.381     0.707        -. 8289214                    1.199011
              coos                       1.83264                 .6437361                        2.947     0.010          .4898296                    3.115449


73            regress             yi        nt

           Source        I              SS              df                                  MS                      Number of obs -             22
       ---------        +------------------------------                                                             F(    1,     20)-        0.58
            Model        1 1.90201125                     1                  1.90201125                             Prob > F              0.4563
       Residual          1 65.9016239                   20                   3.29508119                             R-squared             0.0281
       ----------------------------------------                                                                     Adj R-squared     * -0.0205
            Total        1 67.8036351                   21                   3.22874453                             Rout MSE              1.8152


                    yl I                     Cooe.              Std.        Et..                     t     PlitI           (95. Coon.         Interval)

                 oe        1           1.702924                 2.241412                         0.760     0.456           -2.97258                   6.378428
              cuns                     1.794282                 .4937618                         3.634     0.002             .764271                  2.824292




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