Facets of RAL

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					            5 January 2010


   NCAR Research
Applications Laboatory
  “Science in Service to Society”

          Roy Rasmussen
     Research Applications Laboratory
                           NCAR Laboratories

NESL
NCAR Earth
Systems Laboratory




CISL
Computational and
Information Sciences Lab




EOL
Earth Observing
Laboratory




RAL
Research Applications
Laboratory
Research Applications Laboratory
      “Science in Service to Society”
• Mission: To develop and transfer knowledge and
  technology to US government agencies, the private
  sector, and foreign governments
  – Expand the reach of atmospheric science into weather-sensitive human
    endeavors
       • New uses for atmospheric science to benefit people and industry
  – Contribute to the depth of fundamental and practical understanding in
    atmospheric science
       • Perform cutting-edge research
  – Develop new sources of support for such research
  – Partnerships with other groups
• Approach: normal business practices, including
  –   Performance as promised
  –   Emphasis on quality
  –   Discussions regarding the “art of the possible”
  –   Attention to customer needs
RAL application areas (examples)
• Aviation weather
   – Icing, snowfall, storms, turbulence, oceanic, ceiling,
     visibility, volcanic ash
• Hydrometeorology
   – Thunderstorm forecasting/nowcasting, rainfall
     estimation, surface hydrology, aerosol/precipitation
     studies, cloud seeding studies
• National security applications and range
  meteorology
   – NWP systems, applications (e.g., transport and
     diffusion), climate downscaling, urban meteorology
• Surface transportation
   – Road weather, decision support tools
• Testbed for advanced numerical techniques
   – WRF, data assimilation, new verification methods
• Climate Impacts
   – Regional adaptation to climate change
   – Climate and health
• Renewable energy
   – Wind, solar
RESEARCH



                 Microburst
APPLICATIONS




               Aviation Safety
RESEARCH



                                                    Microburst
TECHNOLOGY




                 Systems            Specialized                   Real-Time Oper-
                Engineering          Displays                     ational Systems


               • Algorithm development            • System demonstration            • Validation   • End User
APPLICATIONS




                                                  Aviation Safety
                                            Land-Surface
                                              Modeling                                                               Icing and Related
RESEARCH

                                                                                Hybrid         Atmospheric
                                                                                                                       Cloud Physics
                 Remote Sensing                                                Forecast         Turbulence
                                                         Numerical            Techniques
                                                      Weather Prediction                                Instrument
                                   Hydrologic
                                                                                      Ceiling &       Development &
                                  Applications
               Thunderstorm                                                           Visibility        Evaluation
                                                                                                                         Precipitation &
                Nowcasting                                                                                               Air Chemistry
                                                    Wind Field     Verification
                                Precip.             Retrieval                                          Snowfall and
                                                                    Research
                              Nowcasting                                                              Freezing Drizzle
TECHNOLOGY




                                                                          Social
                                                                         Science

                    Systems                 Specialized                     Real-Time Oper-                       Information
                   Engineering               Displays                       ational Systems                       Technology


                  • Algorithm development                  • System demonstration                  • Validation           • End User


                                                                                              Reservoir of Capability
APPLICATIONS




                  Aviation       National       Hydromet-         Public Forecast     Energy           Surface             Climate
                  Weather        Security        eorology         Improvements                      Transportation         Impacts

                 • Weather products                • Operational systems            • Education           • Commercialization
                 • Decision support aids           • Expert advice                  • Training            • Advocacy
                                            Land-Surface
                                              Modeling                                                               Icing and Related
RESEARCH

                                                                                Hybrid        Atmospheric
                                                                                                                       Cloud Physics
                 Remote Sensing                                                Forecast        Turbulence
                                                         Numerical            Techniques
                                                      Weather Prediction                                Instrument
                                   Hydrologic
                                                                                      Ceiling &       Development &
                                  Applications
               Thunderstorm                                                           Visibility        Evaluation
                                                                                                                         Precipitation &
                Nowcasting                                                                                               Air Chemistry
                                                    Wind Field     Verification
                                Precip.             Retrieval                                          Snowfall and
                                                                    Research
                              Nowcasting                                                              Freezing Drizzle
TECHNOLOGY




                                                                         Societal
                                                                         Impacts

                    Systems                 Specialized                     Real-Time Oper-                       Information
                   Engineering               Displays                       ational Systems                       Technology


                  • Algorithm development                  • System demonstration                  • Validation           • End User


                                                                                              Reservoir of Capability
APPLICATIONS




                  Aviation       National       Hydromet-         Public Forecast    Marine            Surface              Fire
                  Weather        Security        eorology         Improvements       Weather        Transportation         Weather

                 • Weather products                • Operational systems            • Education           • Commercialization
                 • Decision support aids           • Expert advice                  • Training            • Advocacy
                  Organization (~ 225 people)


                     Research Applications Laboratory
  Deputy
                                    Brant Foote, Director
 Directors                    Richard Wagoner, Deputy Director
    for                       Liz Hoswell, Acting Administrator
engineering
    and
  science                    Aviation Applications Program (AAP)
                                    Bruce Carmichael, Director



Emphasis on:            National Security Applications Program (NSAP)
                                     Scott Swerdlin, Director
Project mgmt
  structure
                        Hydrometeorology Applications Program (HAP)
                                     Roy Rasmussen, Director
Staffing matrix

                      Weather Systems and Assessment Program (WSAP)
                                      Bill Mahoney, Director
Steady history
  of growth
                       Climate Science and Applications Program (CSAP)
                                     Lawrence Buja, Director



                                Joint Numerical Testbed (JNT)
                                       Barb Brown, Director
Societal Impacts and
Social Science




                       Some program
                        history and
                         highlights

                                  DWFE Predicted Reflectivity, t=+48h
                                                                         Ausentes
                                  WRF-NMM          10:00 Z, 8 Mar 05

                                                                        Ayudas
                                                             Falsas
                                                             alarmas


                                                            Pronóstico Observado
 RAL’s first decision support tool
    (now have more than a dozen different examples)



  Graphical Situation Display           Alphanumeric Alarm Display




Used by:

 Supervisors/Managers                         Controllers
                        U.S. Fatalities Associated with
                        Aviation Wind Shear Accidents

                                                              152
                       150                138                              134
Number of Fatalities




                                                    112
                                                           Wind Shear R&D
                       100
                                                                          Pilot Training
                                                                                                  TDWR
                       50                                                                  37

                                 0                                                                            0*
                        0
                             '65-'69   '70-'74   '75-'79   '80-'84   '85-'89         '90-'94          '95-'99
                                                       Year of Accident
                                                                                 * Final accident report on AA accident at Little Rock, AR
                                                                                   not completed. May be wind shear with 10 fatalities.
                Weather:                                                           No TDWR system at Little Rock.

                 70% of delays > 15 min                                            Source: NTSB

                 1/4 of all accidents
Aviation Weather R&D at NCAR

              27 years of progress
          Aviation Weather R&D at NCAR


                                  clear-air turbulence


                                                         convective weather




                                                                              terrain-induced turbulence




In-flight icing
                                                                                     ground de-icing support




                                                           volcanic ash

                  ceiling & visibility
      NASA — ASAP Program
NASA’s “Advanced Satellite Aviation-weather
Products” initiative was started in 2002 to
help transfer new satellite observing
systems and products into operational use
through by means of a collaborative effort
with the FAA’s Aviation Weather Research
Program (AWRP).


Current program elements at NCAR include:
   In-flight Icing
   Turbulence
   Convective Weather
                            External collaborators include:
   Space Weather (ADDS)
   NextGen Support           NASA LaRC
                              Uinversity of Wisconsn CIMSS
                              Univ. of Alabama Huntsville
                              MIT/LL & NRL-Monterey
           Current Icing Product (CIP) Enhancement

Incorporating NASA satellite products…

Testing NASA cloud-top estimate and satellite-derived cloud phase parameter
shows reduction of over-predicted icing areas and improvement in PODn.




Operational CIP Method                  Experimental NASA Enhancements
         MODIS Water Vapor Imagery Helps Identify Mountain Waves


         Feature Identification…

Clear-air mountain wave
features over Colorado,
visualized using enhanced
6.7μm satellite imagery
(figure courtesy UW-CIMSS).




  Red & orange
  circles show
  pilot reports
  with moderate
  or greater
  turbulence.



                              Complex wave patterns with intersecting features
                              may be related to moderate or greater turbulence.
Activities started more recently

• Renewable energy
• Climate change in relation to:
  – Water resources
  – Health
  – Urban emissions, adaptation, & vulnerability
  – Assessing vulnerability and adaptation in
    native communities (ASP post doc)
                                                    NCAR Water System Program
Global Water Cycle Studies                                                                                                     Colorado Headwaters




                                                                                              How Does the Water Cycle Change
                                                                                                   as Climate Changes?

Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation                                                                                                    Societal Impacts
In the Lee of Topography                                                                         Convective Parameterization
          Noon                   Directional
                                 shear
                                                         Early next morning

                                                                 
                                                                                                                1D cloud
       Cumulo-
       Cumulo-
                                c        15 m s-1              MCS =
                                                            cumulonimbus
                                                                                                                 model
       nimbus                                                  family

                                  
                                                    Mesoscale
                                                                       Moister further east
                                                    downdraft


To first order, elevated solar heating
determines start position & start
time of traveling convection

                                    ~1000 km
NCAR
Research Applications Laboratory




                        DWFE Predicted Reflectivity, t=+48h
                                                               Ausentes
                        WRF-NMM          10:00 Z, 8 Mar 05

                                                              Ayudas
                                                   Falsas
                                                   alarmas


                                                  Pronóstico Observado

				
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