Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems to 2015 - Government Incentives and Feed-in Tariffs to Create Growth Potential for Semiconductor Manufacturers by GBIResearch

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									    Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems to 2015 -
  Government Incentives and Feed-in Tariffs to Create Growth
         Potential for Semiconductor Manufacturers
 Reference Code: GBISC022MR                                                                                 Publication Date: January 2012


                                   Transition in the Technology of Semiconductors to Increase the Efficiency of Solar PV
                                   System
                                   Technological advancements are being made to improve the efficiency of semiconductors, in order
                                   to increase the performance of the solar photovoltaic (PV) system. The use of silicon carbide (SiC)
                                   metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistors (MOSFETs) in PV inverters is increasing the
                                   efficiency of the PV inverters by reducing the switching and conduction losses of transistors and
                                   diodes. In PV cells, the substrate technology used is being changed to attain higher efficiency
                                   levels. In the crystalline cells, single crystal and multi-crystalline technologies are being replaced by
                                   ultra thin silicon and ribbon silicon technologies. Likewise, in thin-film cells, amorphous silicon and
                                   CdTe is being replaced by CIGS.
                                   Government Incentives          and     Feed-In     Tariffs    (FITs)   Create     Growth      Potential    for
   The sales revenue of the        Semiconductors
   semiconductors in solar
   PV systems was $27.75           Government incentives and FITs are a form of support for investors in the renewable energy
   billion in 2011 and is          market. This in turn creates growth potential for semiconductors in solar PV systems. With the
   expected to reach $32.06        support of FITs and government incentives, the number of PV system installations has increased in
   billion by the end of 2015.     many regions. The increase in PV installations in European countries such as the major markets of
                                   Germany and Italy, have increased the market for semiconductors used in PV system. Companies,
                                   such as Suntech, have increased the production capacities of solar modules in 2010, and
                                   increased shipments to facilitate the demand. This shows that the demand for semiconductors in
                                   solar PV systems is increasing with the increasing installations, which are driven by the FITs and
                                   incentives. Countries like Czech Republic, Canada, France and the UK emerged as key markets
                                   for PV installations and because of this, the semiconductors market in these countries grew due to
                                   the FIT programs implemented in these countries. Several states such as Hawaii, California,
                                   Florida, New Jersey and Washington have fixed tariffs which attract PV installation investors. The
                                   state-level FIT in the US is based on the German FIT model. To capture the potential in such
                                   regions, companies like JA Solar were discussing the possibility of establishing a solar cell
                                   production base in US and enter the Canadian market. The sales revenue of the semiconductors in
                                   solar PV systems was $27.75 billion in 2011 and is expected to reach $32.06 billion by the end of
                                   2015. The figure below gives the sales revenues of the semiconductors in solar PV systems for the
                                   years 2011 and 2015.




Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems to 2015 -                                                            GBISC022MR /Published JAN 2012
Government Incentives and Feed-in Tariffs to Create Growth                                                                                 Page 1
Potential for Semiconductor Manufacturers                               © GBI Research. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied,
                                                                                                        reproduced, shared or resold in any form
                                    Semiconductors in Solar PV systems, Sales Revenue ($bn), 2011 and 2015

                                                                 33


                                                                 32


                                                                 31




                                           Sales Revenue ($bn)
                                                                 30



                                                                 29


                                                                 28


                                                                 27



                                                                 26



                                                                 25
                                                                       2011                                            2015
                                                                                               Year


                                    Source: GBI Research, Company Presentations, Annual Reports, Press Releases, Internal Database




                                   Technological Advancements to Improve Efficiency of PV Systems is the Main Challenge
                                   Technological advancements are being made to improve the efficiency of the PV system and
                                   reduce the cost per watt. Further improvements must be made to reduce the cost per watt and
                                   increase the efficiency of the industry to reach grid parity. For this, research must be done to
                                   reduce the energy losses that are taking place in the solar PV system and increase the efficiency of
                                   the semiconductors that are used in the solar PV systems. Countries like Spain and China have
                                   government support for R&D activities to improve the efficiency of the system and reduce the costs
                                   of modules, or the system as a whole. China’s 973 Scheme supports the development of future
                                   solar PV technologies, including backing for the technical and theoretical development of thin-film
                                   and dye sensitized solar cells. Japan also started a project in 2008 with a budget of JPY2 billion
                                   ($25.60m). The program aims to improve the performance and demonstrate the feasibility of PV
                                   power generation technology by applying new materials and new solar cell structures. To reach the
                                   targets set by the government bodies and meet the expectations of the PV investors to increase the
                                   installations, technological advancements must take place at a faster rate. Efforts must be made to
                                   reduce the cost of crystalline cells and increase the efficiency of thin-film cells to overcome the
                                   disadvantages of these technologies. To improve efficiency, reducing the switching and conduction
                                   losses of transistors and diodes in the PV system, will be a challenge for manufacturers. Such
                                   technological changes will also help the industry reach grid parity and reduce the dependence on
                                   government incentives.




Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems to 2015 -                                                              GBISC022MR /Published JAN 2012
Government Incentives and Feed-in Tariffs to Create Growth                                                                                   Page 2
Potential for Semiconductor Manufacturers                                 © GBI Research. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied,
                                                                                                          reproduced, shared or resold in any form
                                   1         Table of Contents
                                   1   Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................ 3
                                       1.1    List of Tables..................................................................................................................... 6
                                       1.2    List of Figures ................................................................................................................... 8
                                   2   Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 9
                                       2.1    GBI Research Report Guidance ....................................................................................... 9
                                   3   Overview ................................................................................................................................... 10
                                       3.1    Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Power Systems ......................................................................... 10
                                       3.2    Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems.................................................................. 11
                                       3.3    Technology Associated with Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems .................... 11
                                   4   Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems, Industry Dynamics ............................................. 13
                                       4.1    Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems - Key Market Drivers ................................ 13
                                          4.1.1    Government Incentives and Feed-In Tariffs (FITs) Create the Growth Potential ..... 13
                                          4.1.2    Cost Reductions Due to Technological Improvements Drive the Industry ............... 15
                                       4.2    Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems - Key Market Restraints ........................... 16
                                          4.2.1    Market Highly Dependent on Government Policies ................................................. 16
                                       4.3    Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems - Key Challenge ....................................... 16
                                          4.3.1    Technological Advancements to Improve Efficiency................................................ 16
                                       4.4    Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems - Future Trends ........................................ 17
                                          4.4.1    Improved Photovoltaic Cells through Plasmonics .................................................... 17
                                          4.4.2    Photovoltaic Flat Panels May Be Replaced with Three Dimensional Photovoltaic
                                                   Structures ................................................................................................................ 17
                                   5   Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems - Porter’s Five Forces Analysis ........................... 18
                                   6   Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems - Analysis and Forecasts .................................... 19
                                       6.1    Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems, Sales Revenues and Forecasts, 2004-
                                              2015 ................................................................................................................................ 19
                                   7   Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems - Analysis on the basis of Key Product Types .... 21
                                       7.1    Photovoltaic (PV) Cells Market Sizing and Forecasts, 2004-2015 .................................. 22
                                          7.1.1    PV Cells - Analysis on the basis of Technology Type.............................................. 24
                                          7.1.2    Crystalline Cells Market Sizing and Forecasts, 2004-2015 ..................................... 25
                                          7.1.3    Thin-film Cells Market Sizing and Forecasts, 2004-2015 ........................................ 27
                                       7.2    IGBTs/MOSFETs Market Sizing and Forecasts, 2004-2015 ........................................... 29
                                       7.3    Couplers Market Sizing and Forecasts, 2004-2015 ........................................................ 31
                                       7.4    Logic IC Market Sizing and Forecasts, 2004-2015 ......................................................... 33
                                       7.5    Analog IC Market Sizing and Forecasts, 2004-2015 ....................................................... 35
                                       7.6    Micro Components Market Sizing and Forecasts, 2004-2015......................................... 37
                                       7.7    Optical Semiconductors Market Sizing and Forecasts, 2004-2015 ................................. 39
                                       7.8    Other Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems Market Sizing and Forecasts, 2004-
                                              2015 ................................................................................................................................ 41
                                   8   Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems - Analysis based on Region................................ 43
                                       8.1    Europe, Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems Market Sizing and Forecasts,
                                              2004-2015 ....................................................................................................................... 44
                                          8.1.1    Europe Market Analysis on the basis of Key Countries ........................................... 45
                                          8.1.2    Germany, Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems Market Sizing and
                                                   Forecasts, 2004-2015.............................................................................................. 46
                                          8.1.3    Italy, Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems Market Sizing and Forecasts,
                                                   2004-2015 ............................................................................................................... 50
                                          8.1.4    Czech Republic, Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems Market Sizing and
                                                   Forecasts, 2004-2015.............................................................................................. 53
                                          8.1.5    France, Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems Market Sizing and Forecasts,
                                                   2004-2015 ............................................................................................................... 56
                                          8.1.6    Rest of Europe, Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems Market Sizing and
                                                   Forecasts, 2004-2015.............................................................................................. 58
                                       8.2    Asia-Pacific, Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems Market Sizing and Forecasts,
                                              2004-2015 ....................................................................................................................... 60


Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems to 2015 -                                                                        GBISC022MR /Published JAN 2012
Government Incentives and Feed-in Tariffs to Create Growth                                                                                             Page 3
Potential for Semiconductor Manufacturers                                           © GBI Research. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied,
                                                                                                                    reproduced, shared or resold in any form
                                           8.2.1 APAC Market Analysis on the basis of Key Countries ............................................. 62
                                           8.2.2 Japan, Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems Market Sizing and Forecasts,
                                                 2004-2015 ............................................................................................................... 63
                                         8.2.3   China, Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems Market Sizing and Forecasts,
                                                 2004-2015 ............................................................................................................... 66
                                         8.2.4   Australia, Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems Market Sizing and Forecasts,
                                                 2004-2015 ............................................................................................................... 69
                                         8.2.5   Rest of APAC, Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems Market Sizing and
                                                 Forecasts, 2004-2015.............................................................................................. 72
                                      8.3    North America, Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems Market Sizing and
                                             Forecasts, 2004-2015 ..................................................................................................... 74
                                         8.3.1   North America Market Analysis on the basis of Key Countries ................................ 76
                                         8.3.2   US, Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems Market Sizing and Forecasts,
                                                 2004-2015 ............................................................................................................... 77
                                         8.3.3   Canada, Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems Market Sizing and Forecasts,
                                                 2004-2015 ............................................................................................................... 80
                                         8.3.4   Rest of North America, Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems Market Sizing
                                                 and Forecasts, 2004-2015 ....................................................................................... 82
                                      8.4    Middle East and Africa, Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems Market Sizing and
                                             Forecasts, 2004-2015 ..................................................................................................... 84
                                      8.5    South and Central America, Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems Market Sizing
                                             and Forecasts, 2004-2015 .............................................................................................. 86
                                   9 Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems, Competitive Analysis, 2010 ............................... 88
                                      9.1    Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems, Competitive Landscape .......................... 88
                                         9.1.1   PV Cells, Market Share Analysis, 2010 ................................................................... 89
                                         9.1.2   Key Suppliers of IGBTs for PV Power Systems, 2010............................................. 90
                                         9.1.3   Key PV System Equipment Manufacturers, 2010 .................................................... 90
                                      9.2    Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems, Key Company Profile - Suntech .............. 91
                                         9.2.1   Suntech - Business Description ............................................................................... 91
                                         9.2.2   Suntech - Major Products and Services .................................................................. 91
                                         9.2.3   Suntech - SWOT Analysis ....................................................................................... 91
                                         9.2.4   Suntech - Recent Developments ............................................................................. 94
                                      9.3    Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems, Key Company Profile - JA Solar ............. 94
                                         9.3.1   JA Solar - Business Description .............................................................................. 94
                                         9.3.2   JA Solar - Major Products and Services .................................................................. 94
                                         9.3.3   JA Solar - SWOT Analysis ....................................................................................... 95
                                         9.3.4   JA Solar - Recent Developments............................................................................. 98
                                      9.4    PV Cells in Solar PV Power Systems, Key Company Profile - First Solar ...................... 98
                                         9.4.1   First Solar - Business Description............................................................................ 98
                                         9.4.2   First Solar - Major Products and Services ............................................................... 98
                                         9.4.3   First Solar - SWOT Analysis .................................................................................... 99
                                         9.4.4   First Solar - Recent Developments ........................................................................ 102
                                      9.5    IGBTs in Solar PV Power Systems, Key Company Profile - Infineon Technologies ..... 102
                                         9.5.1   Infineon Technologies - Business Description ....................................................... 102
                                         9.5.2   Infineon Technologies - Major Semiconductor Products for Solar PV Inverters .... 102
                                         9.5.3   Infineon Technologies - SWOT Analysis ............................................................... 102
                                         9.5.4   Infineon Technologies - Recent Developments ..................................................... 104
                                      9.6    IGBTs in Solar PV Power Systems, Key Company Profile - Fairchild Semiconductor .. 104
                                         9.6.1   Fairchild Semiconductor International, Inc. - Business Description ....................... 104
                                         9.6.2   Fairchild Semiconductor International, Inc. - Major Products and Services ........... 105
                                         9.6.3   Fairchild Semiconductor International, Inc., SWOT Analysis ................................. 105
                                         9.6.4   Fairchild Semiconductors-Recent Developments .................................................. 106
                                   10 Appendix ................................................................................................................................. 107
                                      10.1 About GBI Research ..................................................................................................... 107
                                      10.2 Market Definition ........................................................................................................... 107
                                      10.3 Glossary of Terms......................................................................................................... 108


Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems to 2015 -                                                                       GBISC022MR /Published JAN 2012
Government Incentives and Feed-in Tariffs to Create Growth                                                                                            Page 4
Potential for Semiconductor Manufacturers                                          © GBI Research. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied,
                                                                                                                   reproduced, shared or resold in any form
                                      10.4 Methodology ................................................................................................................. 108
                                         10.4.1 Market Size Estimates ........................................................................................... 108
                                         10.4.2 Market Size Forecasts ........................................................................................... 108
                                         10.4.3 Breakdown Estimates ............................................................................................ 109
                                         10.4.4 Geographies covered ............................................................................................ 109
                                         10.4.5 Market Share Estimates ........................................................................................ 109
                                         10.4.6 Coverage ............................................................................................................... 109
                                         10.4.7 Secondary Research ............................................................................................. 110
                                         10.4.8 Primary Research .................................................................................................. 110
                                         10.4.9 Expert Panel Validation ......................................................................................... 110
                                      10.5 Contact Us .................................................................................................................... 110
                                      10.6 Disclaimer ..................................................................................................................... 111




Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems to 2015 -                                                                     GBISC022MR /Published JAN 2012
Government Incentives and Feed-in Tariffs to Create Growth                                                                                          Page 5
Potential for Semiconductor Manufacturers                                        © GBI Research. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied,
                                                                                                                 reproduced, shared or resold in any form
                                   1.1    List of Tables
                                   Table 1:    PV Cell Technology........................................................................................................ 12
                                   Table 2:    Semiconductors in Solar PV Systems, Key Drivers, 2011 ............................................. 13
                                   Table 3:    Solar PV Inverter Market, Global, Feed-in Tariff Rates, 2012 ........................................ 14
                                   Table 4:    Semiconductors in Solar PV Systems, Key Restraints, 2011......................................... 16
                                   Table 5:    Semiconductors in Solar PV Systems, Key Challenges, 2011 ....................................... 16
                                   Table 6:    Semiconductors in Solar PV Systems, Future Trends, 2011 ......................................... 17
                                   Table 7:    Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems ................ 18
                                   Table 8:    Semiconductors in Solar PV Systems, Global Sales Revenue, ($bn), 2004-2015 ......... 20
                                   Table 9:    Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems, Global, Consumption Breakdown on the
                                               Basis of Key Products,(%), 2011.................................................................................... 21
                                   Table 10:   Photovoltaic (PV) Cells in Solar PV Power Systems Market, Global Sales Revenue,
                                               ($bn), 2004-2015............................................................................................................ 23
                                   Table 11:   PV Cells in Solar PV Power Systems, Global, Consumption Breakdown on the Basis of
                                               Key Cell Types,(%), 2011 .............................................................................................. 24
                                   Table 12:   Crystalline Cells in Solar PV Power Systems Market, Global Sales Revenue, ($bn),
                                               2004-2015 ...................................................................................................................... 26
                                   Table 13:   Thin-Film Cells in Solar PV Power Systems Market, Global Sales Revenue, ($bn), 2004-
                                               2015 ............................................................................................................................... 28
                                   Table 14:   IGBTs/MOSFETs in Solar PV Power Systems Market, Global Sales Revenue, ($m),
                                               2004-2015 ...................................................................................................................... 30
                                   Table 15:   Couplers in Solar PV Power Systems Market, Global Sales Revenue, ($m), 2004-2015
                                               ....................................................................................................................................... 32
                                   Table 16:   Logic IC in Solar PV Power Systems Market, Global Sales Revenue, ($m), 2004-2015 34
                                   Table 17:   Analog IC in Solar PV Power Systems Market, Global Sales Revenue, ($m), 2004-2015
                                               ....................................................................................................................................... 36
                                   Table 18:   Micro Components in Solar PV Power Systems Market, Global Sales Revenue, ($m),
                                               2004-2015 ...................................................................................................................... 38
                                   Table 19:   Optical Components in Solar PV Power Systems Market, Global Sales Revenue, ($m),
                                               2004-2015 ...................................................................................................................... 40
                                   Table 20:   Other Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems Market, Global Sales Revenue, ($m),
                                               2004-2015 ...................................................................................................................... 42
                                   Table 21:   Semiconductors in Solar PV Power Systems, Global, Breakdown on the Basis of Key
                                               Regions,(%), 2011 ......................................................................................................... 43
                                   Table 22:   Semiconductors in Solar PV Systems, Europe, Sales Revenue, ($bn), 2004-2015 ....... 44
                                   Table 23:   Semiconductors in Solar PV Systems, Europe Market, Breakdown on the Basis of Key
                                               Countries,(%), 2011 ....................................................................................................... 45
                                   Table 24:   Semiconductors in Solar PV Systems, Germany, Sales Revenue, ($bn), 2004-2015.... 47
                                   Table 25:   Germany, EEG Remuneration for Solar Facilities, 2009-2011 ...................................... 48
                                   Table 26:   Semiconductors in Solar PV Systems, Italy, Sales Revenue, (
								
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