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Weekly Market Outlook 18.02.12

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Weekly Market Outlook 18.02.12 Powered By Docstoc
					Weekly Market Outlook                                                  18 Feb 2012
                                                                                                                                         make more, for sure.


                                                            SNAPSHOT
 DATA MATRIX FOR THE WEEK
                                                            Indian stock markets went through a highly enthralling week of trade as the benchmark indices seldom
     13th Feb 2012 - 17th Feb 2012                          showed signs of nervousness, riding high on the back of hefty FII inflows and snapped the seventh
                                                            consecutive week on a cheerful note after garnering over three percentage points. Markets have carried
                                                            forward their exhilaration since the start of the New Year, during which they skyrocketed around 18% and
             Weekly Markets
                                                            regained the levels last seen in July 2011. Foreign institutional investors showed renewed vigor in Indian
Sensex                       18,289             3.04%       equities following the ease in inflationary concerns and recent appreciation in rupee. Meanwhile, the
                                                            broader markets showcased a boisterous performance as BSE's Mid-cap & Small-cap indices garnered
Nifty                          5,584            3.75%       huge gains for the week and outclassed the larger peers. Stocks from the power counter traded on a
                                                            jubilant note after PM Manmohan Singh cleared coal supply to private sector power producers, which
Gold(US$/oz)                 1,725.3            0.06%       would help power plants with estimated capacity of more than 50,000 MW. On the earnings front, real
Re/US$                         49.31           -0.08%       estate major DLF, along with Tata Power, Suzlon Energy, SAIL and SBI got pounded heavily after
                                                            announcing third quarter results which were below street's expectations while Tata Motors and Coal
Dow                           12,950            1.16%       India on the other hand settled on a strong note as its quarterly performance got commended by investors.

Nasdaq                         2,952            1.65%                                      Volume* & Volatility Index (Nifty - Feb 2012)
                                                               2000                                                                                                   26
FX Res (US$ Bn)              293.384           -0.13%                                                                                                                 25
                                                               1500
                                                                                                                                                                      24
Net FII / DII Equity Activity (Rs Cr)                          1000                                                                                                   23
                                                                                                                                                                      22
Upto 17.02.12                  FIIs              DIIs           500
                                                                                                                                                                      21
Total Feb 2012               10310.4          -5769.3              0                                                                                                  20
Total 2012                    19,780          -12,499                  6-Feb     7-Feb    8-Feb     9-Feb    10-Feb 13-Feb 14-Feb 15-Feb 16-Feb 17-Feb
                                                               *NSE
                                                                                 Cash Volume (Rs bn)             F & O Volume (Rs bn)          Volatility Index %
        Weekly Sector Movement
Sectors                       Close                 %
Auto                         10,319                6.24
Bankex                        12,736               6.25
CD                             6,647               7.76
CG                            11,107               7.91
FMCG                           4,153               0.54
Healthcare                     6,375               0.45
IT                             6,267               3.58
Metal                         12,572               1.68
Oil & Gas                      8,645              -1.44
                                                            India's headline inflation slipped to a more than 2-year low in January, giving some relief to the policy-makers
PSU                            7,909               3.08     and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) scope to cut interest rates in the forthcoming policy review to counter
                                                            weakening economic growth. Headline inflation, as measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), fell to 6.55%
Realty                         2,080             10.21      In January 2012 as compared to 7.47% in December 2011.

 WEEK AHEAD
Volatility is expected to remain at the forefront for the holiday truncated week as traders are expected to adjust their position with expiry of February
F&O contracts on Thursday, February 23, 2011. Investor's for the coming week will also be eyeing an Empowered Group of Ministers' (EGoM)
meeting headed by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, slated to be held on February 24, to consider changes in the natural gas allocation policy.
Meanwhile, with just one-and-half months left to meet Rs 40,000 crore disinvestment target for this fiscal, a panel of ministers, which deferred a
decision on stake sale of blue chip engineering giant BHEL in the week passed by, may meet again in the coming week to take a final call. From the
global markets, traders will be eyeing data of US, starting from Existing Home Sales data on February 22, followed by Jobless Claim data and New
Home Sales data on February 24, 2011. For the upcoming sessions we believe current euphoria will survive however 5660-5680 could be the near
term hurdles. Any break out above this zone may further boost the sentiment and we might see 5800-5830 in the next series. On the flip side
possibility of consolidation wouldn't be rule out at this stage however 5300-5330 may be the good support levels to reenter. HAPPY TRADING...

     Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report                         For Private circulation Only                          For Our Clients Only
                                                                                      1
Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd                                                                          SEBI Regn No. BSE: INB010985834 /          NSE: INB230781431
Office: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002
Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: research@moneysukh.com
Website: www.moneysukh.com
Weekly Market Outlook
                                                                                                          make more, for sure.


       SENSEX 30-TECHNICAL LEVELS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK ENDED 24th Feb 2012
                                                              SUPPORT          CLOSE PRICE          RESISTANCE
                       SCRIP                            3rd     2nd     1st      17.02.12     1st      2nd     3rd     INCLINATION

Bajaj Auto Ltd                                         1712    1756     1778     1800.70     1822      1843   1886        Positive
Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd.                           229     267     285       303.45      324      344     382        Positive
Bharti Airtel Ltd.                                      335     343     346       349.55      354      359     367        Neutral
Cipla Ltd.                                              304     314     318       321.55      327      333     342        Positive
Coal India Ltd.                                         309     318     321       324.85      330      336     345        Neutral
DLF Ltd.                                                240     248     251       253.85      258      263     271        Positive
GAIL (India) Ltd.                                       353     367     374       380.75      389      397     412        Neutral
HDFC Bank Ltd.                                          499     513     520       527.55      535      542     556        Neutral
Hero MotoCorp Ltd.                                     1903    2020     2065     2109.70     2182      2255   2372        Positive
Hindalco Industries Ltd.                                138     146     148       151.10      156      161     169        Negative
Hindustan Unilever Ltd.                                 374     379     382       385.25      388      390     395        Neutral
Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd.            686     702     709       716.50      725      733     749        Positive
ICICI Bank Ltd.                                         939     962     972       981.55      995      1007   1030        Positive
Infosys Ltd.                                           2792    2867     2909     2950.60     2984      3017   3092        Positive
ITC Ltd.                                                200     202     204       205.30      206      207     210        Positive
Jindal Steel & Power Ltd.                               591     619     629       639.25      656      674     701        Positive
Larsen & Toubro Ltd.                                   1293    1383     1416     1448.65     1506      1563   1652        Positive
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.                                699     722     735       749.30      758      766     789        Positive
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.                               1227    1282     1301     1320.00     1355      1391   1446        Neutral
NTPC Ltd.                                               177     182     185       187.65      190      193     198        Positive
Oil & Natural Gas Corpn. Ltd.                           263     274     277       281.30      288      294     304        Neutral
Reliance Industries Ltd.                                786     802     810       817.90      826      834     850        Negative
State Bank Of India                                    2241    2331     2374     2416.75     2463      2509   2599        Positive
Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd.                        121     128     130       133.00      137      141     148        Neutral
Sun Pharmaceutical Inds. Ltd.                           522     532     537       541.90      547      552     562        Negative
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd.                         1172    1203     1216     1228.70     1247      1266   1297        Neutral
Tata Motors Ltd.                                        252     264     269       273.90      281      288     300        Negative
Tata Power Company Ltd.                                 107     112     115       118.65      121      123     129        Positive
Tata Steel Ltd.                                         443     461     470       478.00      488      497     516        Neutral
Wipro Ltd.                                              418     432     441       449.20      455      461     475        Positive



                                                                   2
Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd                                                SEBI Regn No. BSE: INB010985834 /   NSE: INB230781431
Office: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002
Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: research@moneysukh.com
Website: www.moneysukh.com
Weekly Market Outlook
                                                                                                              make more, for sure.


         NSE MIDCAP 50-TECHNICAL LEVELS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK ENDED 24th Feb 2012
                                                   SUPPORT                  CLOSE PRICE            RESISTANCE               Market Cap
                 SCRIP                      3rd       2nd        1st          17.02.12       1st       2nd        3rd        (Rs Crore)
Adani Power Ltd.                            70         78        81             85.00         89        94        102          18530
Allahabad Bank                             179         190       194           198.35        205        211       222          9446
Alstom Projects India Ltd.                 368         396       407           417.70        435        453       481          2800
Andhra Bank                                121         126       129           131.10        134        137       142          7336
Ashok Leyland Ltd.                          27         28        29             29.35         30        31        32           7809
Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.                      108         114       117           119.45        123        127       133          3477
Bajaj Hindusthan Ltd.                       33         34        35             35.75         37        38        40           2286
BEML Ltd.                                  564         597       616           634.45        648        662       694          2642
Bharat Forge Ltd.                          302         311       315           319.10        325        331       340          7428
CESC Ltd.                                  259         276       283           290.60        300        309       326          3631
Cummins India Ltd.                         459         466       469           471.40        475        479       486          13067
DiviS Laboratories Ltd.                    700         728       742           756.30        770        783       811          10036
Educomp Solutions Ltd.                     210         223       228           233.25        241        249       262          2241
Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd.        239         257       264           270.45        281        292       310          4119
GVK Power & Infrastructure Ltd.             16         18        19             19.10         20        21        22           3016
Hindustan Construction Company Ltd.         27         30        30             31.30         33        34        36           1899
Hotel Leela Venture Ltd.                    36         37        38             38.70         40        41        42           1501
Housing Development & Infrastructure Ltd. 103          113       118           122.70        128        133       143          5141
IDBI Bank Ltd                              110         114       116           117.95        121        123       128          11614
India Cements Ltd.                          94         100       102           103.70        107        111       117          3185
Indian Bank                                222         234       239           243.40        251        258       269          10461
Indian Hotels Company Ltd.                  70         74        75             76.75         79        81        85           5829
IVRCL Ltd.                                  49         54        57             58.85         62        65        70           1571
Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd.               102         110       114           117.45        121        125       132          4759
JSW Steel Ltd.                             784         823       839           854.60        878        901       940          19068
Lanco Infratech Ltd.                        13         18        20             22.65         25        27        32           5454
Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd.              22         27        31             34.20         36        38        44           2155
Mphasis Ltd.                               356         376       388           399.10        408        417       438          8381
NCC Ltd.                                    52         58        61             63.30         66        69        75           1624
Oracle Financial Services Software Ltd    2071        2127      2150          2172.70       2206       2239      2295          18240
Patel Engineering Ltd.                     101         111       115           118.55        125        131       141           828
Petronet LNG Ltd.                          151         162       168           174.60        179        183       194          13095
Piramal Healthcare Ltd.                    421         427       430           432.80        436        439       446          7469
Praj Industries Ltd.                        79         84        86             88.15         91        93        98           1604
Punj Lloyd Ltd.                             57         60        62             62.85         65        67        70           2087
Rolta India Ltd.                            88         92        94             96.00         99        102       107          1549
Shipping Corpn. Of India Ltd.               68         73        75             76.95         80        84        89           3584
Sintex Industries Ltd.                      87         93        95             97.75        101        105       110          2668
Syndicate Bank                             107         112       114           116.30        119        122       127          6667
Tata Chemicals Ltd.                        358         365       368           371.00        374        378       384          9451
Tata Global Beverages Ltd                  111         115       117           119.15        122        125       129          7368
Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) Ltd.        15         16        17             17.35         18        19        20           3292
Tech Mahindra Ltd.                         623         643       651           659.50        671        683       703          8402
Titan Industries Ltd.                      192         210       221           232.50        240        247       265          20641
Ultratech Cement Ltd.                     1428        1452      1464          1475.45       1488       1500      1524          40436
Unitech Ltd.                                28         30        31             31.35         32        33        35           8202
United Phosphorus Ltd.                     145         154       157           160.90        166        172       181          7430
Vijaya Bank Ltd                             63         65        66             67.45         69        70        72           3188
Voltas Ltd.                                 95         103       106           108.40        113        117       124          3587
Welspun Corp Ltd.                          139         146       150           153.05        157        160       167          3486



                                                                   3
Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd                                                   SEBI Regn No. BSE: INB010985834 /   NSE: INB230781431
Office: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002
Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: research@moneysukh.com
Website: www.moneysukh.com
Weekly Market Outlook
                                                                                                       make more, for sure.

FORTHCOMING CORPORATE ACTIONS


     Ex-Date      Company Name                                    NSE- Symbol                        Purpose
    21-Feb-12     Cummins India Limited                           CUMMINSIND           INTERIM DIVIDEND RS.5/- PER SHARE
    21-Feb-12     Snowcem India Limited                           SNOWCEMIND               ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING
    22-Feb-12     Gayatri Projects Limited                         GAYAPROJ          RIGHTS 1:1 @ PREMIUM RS.110 PER SHARE
    22-Feb-12     The Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd               GESHIP          INTERIM DIVIDEND RS.3/- PER SHARE
    22-Feb-12     Oil India Limited                                     OIL          2ND INTERIM DIVIDEND RS.10/- PER SHARE
    22-Feb-12     Natco Pharma Limited                           NATCOPHARM            INTERIM DIVIDEND RS.3/- PER SHARE
    23-Feb-12     SRF Limited                                           SRF            INTERIM DIVIDEND RS.7/- PER SHARE
    23-Feb-12     Hi-Tech Gears Limited                           HITECHGEAR           INTERIM DIVIDEND RS.2/- PER SHARE
    23-Feb-12     Precision Wires India Limited                     PRECWIRE           INTERIM DIVIDEND RS.1.80 PER SHARE
    23-Feb-12     Amrutanjan Health Care Limited                  AMRUTANJAN       INTERIM DIVIDEND OF RS.5/- PER SHARE (50%)
    24-Feb-12     Zodiac Clothing Company Limited                 ZODIACLOTH           INTERIM DIVIDEND RE.1/- PER SHARE
    29-Feb-12     Plastiblends India Limited                       PLASTIBLEN        FACE VALUE SPLIT FROM RS.10/- TO RS.5/-
    1-Mar-12      Dwarikesh Sugar Industries Limited               DWARKESH                ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING
    1-Mar-12      Escorts Limited                                    ESCORTS               DIVIDEND-RS.1.50 PER SHARE
    9-Mar-12      GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare               GSKCONS           AGM AND DIVIDEND RS.35/- PER SHARE
    9-Mar-12      The Andhra Pradesh Paper Mills Limited            APPAPER                ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING
    12-Mar-12     ACC Limited                                           ACC                DIVIDEND RS.17/- PER SHARE
    13-Mar-12     Eicher Motors Limited                            EICHERMOT                DIVIDEND-RS.16 PER SHARE
    13-Mar-12     K.M.Sugar Mills Limited                           KMSUGAR                ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING
    14-Mar-12     Spanco Limited                                       SPANCO           AGM / DIVIDEND RE. 1/- PER SHARE
    19-Mar-12     Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited                ONGC                     INTERIM DIVIDEND
    21-Mar-12     Helios And Matheson Information Tech.           HELIOSMATH            AGM & DIVIDEND RS.1.50 PER SHARE
    21-Mar-12     Lakshmi Energy and Foods Limited                LAKSHMIEFL            AGM & DIVIDEND RE.0.20 PER SHARE
    21-Mar-12     Foseco India Limited                             FOSECOIND            AGM & DIVIDEND RS.7/- PER SHARE




                                                                   4
Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd                                              SEBI Regn No. BSE: INB010985834 /   NSE: INB230781431
Office: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002
Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: research@moneysukh.com
Website: www.moneysukh.com
Weekly Market Outlook
                                                                                                                            make more, for sure.




                              EQUITY CALLS PERFORMANCE FOR THE WEEK ENDED 17th Feb 2012
      Total No. of Calls                    Profitable Calls                Positional/Hold                 Exit/Stop Loss              Success Rate
                29                                  21                               1                             7                        75.00%




                  NAME                                   DESIGNATION                                                   E-MAIL
               Varun Gupta                                Head - Research                                 varungupta@moneysukh.com
           Pashupati Nath Jha                             Research Analyst                            pashupatinathjha@moneysukh.com
              Vikram Singh                                Research Analyst                             vikram_research@moneysukh.com




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                                                                           5
Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd                                                        SEBI Regn No. BSE: INB010985834 / NSE: INB230781431
                                                                                            SEBI Regn No. BSE: INB010985834 / NSE: INB230781431
Office: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002                                                    PMS Regn No. INP000002387
Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: research@moneysukh.com
Website: www.moneysukh.com