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NIIT Tech Chola Sec JAN 12 IC

VIEWS: 12 PAGES: 15

									Initiating Coverage                                                                      NIIT Technologies Ltd
                                                                                                                    11 January 2012

                                                                          Revenue to grow at a CAGR of 25%...
Recommendation               :            OUTPERFORMER
                                                                          We expect NIIT Technologies revenue to grow at a CAGR of 25%
CMP                          :            Rs 200
Target                       :            Rs 255                          between FY11 – FY13 to Rs. 19,291 mn. Strong order book, higher
Upside Potential             :            27.69%                          domestic business and revenue flow from new deal i.e. Morris
                                                                          Communication and Eurostar gives thrust to our revenue assumption.
Sector                       :            IT&ITES
Sensex                       :            16,165
                                                                          Superior margin profile combined with low relative
Bloomberg code               :            NITEC IN
Reuters Code                 :            NITT BO                         volatility in earnings…

AT A GLANCE
                                                                          Earnings volatility is one the principal concern faced my midcap IT
Outstanding Equity (shares in mn)         : 59.43                         companies and NIIT Technologies has got a superior margin profile with
Mkt. Cap (Rs. in mn)                      : 11,886
                                                                          relatively low volatility in margins. During the Period FY07-FY11, its
Mkt. Cap (US$ in mn)                      : 230.35
                                                                          operating margin was in the range of 18% ~21% with relative volatility
Shareholding Pattern
Promoters (%)                             : 39.18%
                                                                          6%.
Free Float (%)                            : 60.82%
                                                                          Order book gives revenue visibility…
Background: NIIT Technologies was spun off from
NIIT Ltd. It has got a strong prowess in application
                                                                          NIIT Technologies opening order book (executable in next 12 months)
development & maintenance, system integration and
enterprise solutions including managed services and
                                                                          has grown at a CAGR of 17.3% from US$76 mn in FY07 to US$169 mn

BPO. As on September 2011, NIIT Technologies                              in FY12. Historically company revenue to opening balance of order book
headcount stood at 6,733 people catering to clients                       was in the range of 1.9X ~ 2.6X (average of 2.1X for the period between
across      insurance,      financial       services,       travel,       FY07 – FY12). Our revenue estimates for FY12 is at the lower end of the
transportation & logistics, manufacturing, retail and                     range (i.e. 1.9X of FY12 opening balance of order book) in the midst of
healthcare. Its marquee client list includes British                      uncertain global economic condition.
Airways, Saber, Changi Airport, ING Group, Amlin, AXA,
SEI, Deutsche Bahn, Holcim and Thrivent.
                                                                          Outlook & Valuation:

                                                                          We expect NIIT Technologies to report an EPS of Rs. 31.3 and Rs.
ANALYST
                                                                          36.5 for FY12E and FY13E. At the CMP of Rs. 200 the stock trades at
Sathyanarayanan M +91-44-30007361                                         6.4X and 5.5X to the FY12E and FY13E earnings respectively. We
sathyanarayananm@chola.murugappa.com
                                                                          have arrived at a target price of Rs. 255 is based on 7x FY13E EPS.
                                                                          We recommend NIIT Technologies as an “Outperformer” rating with a
                                                                          potential upside of 28% from current level.


 Particulars                                                Pre-tax     Net         Adj.EPS    EBIDTA    PBT        PAT         Tax
                         Revenue*           EBIDTA*                                                                                       PE (X)
 (*Rs million)                                              Profit*     Profit*     (Rs)       Margin    Margin     Margin      Rate
 FY11                            12,323             2,404       2,178       1,822       30.9     19.5%      17.7%       14.8%     14.8%            6.5

 FY12E                           15,752             2,717       2,514       1,855       31.3     17.2%      16.0%       11.8%     26.1%            6.4

 FY13E                           19,291             3,377       2,967       2,165       36.5     17.5%      15.4%       11.2%     25.0%            5.5
Company Overview
NIIT Technologies was spun off from NIIT Ltd. It has got a strong prowess in application development &
maintenance, system integration and enterprise solutions including managed services and BPO. As on
September 2011, NIIT Technologies headcount stood at 6,733 people catering to clients across
insurance, financial services, travel, transportation & logistics, manufacturing, retail and healthcare. Its
marquee client list includes British Airways, Saber, Changi Airport, ING Group, Amlin, AXA, SEI,
Deutsche Bahn, Holcim and Thrivent.


Business Model
NIIT Technologies through its business model “Focus and Differentiate” has created a niche for itself, by
focusing on selected industry segments i.e. insurance, financial services and travel, transportation &
logistics (TTL), which contributes 75% of the company’s revenue in Q2FY12. It has delivered superior
customer centricity which is evident from a long standing relationship with marquee clients such as British
Airways with whom NIIT Technologies has been associated for 15 years, with SATS for 10 years and with
Sabre for 8 years. NIIT Technologies is has been ranked no. 1 in Datamonitor’s Black Book of
Outsourcing for the last three years (2008, 2009 & 2010) for customer service in the Travel segment and
ranked No. 3 globally among all IT outsourcers.


Revenue by Industry Vertical




Source: Company, CSEC Research



BFSI contributes 39% of companies revenue in Q2FY12 and most of it is through the insurance vertical
(c.61%) and rest from banking and financial services (BFS) which contributes equally. Among BFS it
caters to risk & compliance, investment management, community / cooperative retail bank. Its Marquee
clients in BFSI include ING, SEI, NN, Amlin, Thrivent and AXA.
  Banking & financial services Vertical…              Insurance Vertical…




  Source: Company                                     Source: Company


Travel, Transportation and Logistics (TTL) vertical contributes 36% of NIIT Technologies revenue in
Q2FY12, which comprises of large carriers (35%), airports (18%), travel distribution (24%) and surface
transportation (23%). It caters 50+clients and has a long standing relationship with clients such as British
Airways (15 years), Sabre (8 years), Virgin Group (6 years) and Deutsche Bahn (5 years)


Manufacturing & Retail contributes 8% of company’s revenue whereas other sectors (incl. Government)
contribute 17% of the revenue. It offers turnkey projects for defence, paramilitary and power sector. It also
offers GIS services.




Revenues by Geographies

NIIT Technologies generates 3/4th of its revenue from America (37%) and Europe (38%) with revenues
from America growing at a CAGR of 14.8% during the period FY05-11, while the revenues from Europe
grew at CAGR of 10.9%. Asia Pacific and India which contributes 13% and 12% of its revenue grew at
CAGR of 18.1% and 22.5% during the same period.

Revenue from Geographies…                             Asia Pacific (incl. India) revenue contribution…




Source: Company                                       Source: Company, CSEC Research



Its combined exposure in Asia-Pacific and India is one of the best amongst its tier II peers; this provides
relative comfort in the ongoing turbulent global macro economic scenario.
Service Offering:




Application Development & Maintenance: NIIT Technologies offers custom software development,
application management, business intelligence, system migration and modernization. It also specializes in
functional & regression testing, system testing and full lifecycle testing.


Package Implementation: It offers ERP implementation of SAP and Geographic Information System
(GIS) based solution around ESRI technology.


It offers Geographic Information System (GIS) to clients worldwide. Domestically it has partnered with
ESRI Inc, USA (global leader in GIS) through a JV to form a company called NIIT GIS Ltd, in which NIIT
Technologies Ltd hold 88.9% and remaining share held by ESRI Inc. In FY11 GIS revenue stood at
Rs.934 mn i.e. 7.6% of NIIT Technologies revenue share. GIS is a seasonal business with Q1 being the
lowest, Q2 and Q3 moderate quarters and Q4 is the strongest quarter. Revenues from GIS have grown at
Compound Quarterly Growth Rate (CQGR) of 8.34% from Rs.139mn in Q2FY10 to Rs.264mn in Q2FY12.


Non Linear strategy: NIIT Technologies has transformed from a generic services provider to a
specialized domain focused player. Its next phase of transformation involves increasing the revenue
share from non-linear activity by evolving new service offering (managed services, platform based
solution and cloud services) that provide higher value to its clients and higher margin to the company.


NIIT Technologies’ non-linear revenue contribution currently stood at 27% (i.e. managed services
contributing 13% and platform based solutions contributing 14% of revenue) which the highest amongst
its Indian peers.


        Managed Services: Company manages IT infrastructure and application as completely
        administered services to their clients which include Holcim. It contributes 13% of its revenues.
        Platform Based Solutions: NIIT Technologies offer platform based solutions which contributes
        14% of its revenues. It offer solutions based on its own platform or through partnership.




Source: Company, CSEC Research




        Cloud Services: NIIT Technologies provides cloud services such as Software-as-a-Service
        (SaaS), Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) and through its partnership with Hitachi, Thailand it also
        offers Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) where Hitachi owns the cloud and NIIT Technologies
        manages the cloud.


        According to NASSCOM, the global cloud market is projected to grow at 33% CAGR to reach
        US$680bn by 2020, while the Indian cloud market is expected to reach US$16bn in the same
        period. While cloud will create and utilize some of the existing service line for IT and BPO
        companies, it also opens up a whole new opportunity to play along the cloud services. Globally,
        SaaS the largest segment is expected to contribute US$244bn by 2020 and IaaS the second
        largest segment is expected to reach around US$143bn by 2020, while PaaS segments which
        has been largely restricted to create SaaS applications, however could potentially transition to
        standalone development and deploy platforms.
Investment Rationale

Superior margin profile combined with low relative volatility in earnings…


Earnings volatility is one the principal concern faced my midcap IT companies and NIIT Technologies has
got a superior margin profile with relatively low volatility in margins. During the Period FY07-FY11, its
operating margin was in the range of 18% ~21% with relative volatility 6%.


                                    Operating Margin                                    Relative
 Company                                                                   Volatility
                    FY07         FY08      FY09       FY10         FY11                 volatility
 NIIT Tech.             20.4      18.7       18.0           20.7    19.5         1.1           6%
 Polaris                16.5      12.4       14.7           15.9    17.2         1.9          12%
 Persistent
 Systems                27.7      26.7       16.3           26.2    24.8         4.6          19%
 Hexaware*              18.6      14.3        9.2           16.8     9.7         4.2          31%
 Mindtree               19.9      20.8       11.2           24.9    13.4         5.6          31%
 Infinite
 Computers               4.7       7.8       13.2           16.8    17.6         5.7          47%
Source: CSEC Research


Superior margin profile and low volatility in earnings are attributed to higher non-linear revenue share and
its specialized focus (verticals) yielding pricing power.


Increasing non linear revenues to aid margin…


Currently 27% of revenues are derived from non-linear revenue source, which typically has higher margin
compared to the linear revenue source. Recently NIIT Technologies has won new deals from Morris
Communication and Eurostar, which will contribute to the non-linear revenues share, and we expect the
revenue share to reach ~30% in FY12.




Source: Company, CSEC Research
 Morris Deal:


 Through the deal with Morris Communication, NIIT Technologies has forayed into the media space in
 the form of a JV (NIIT Media Technologies). Morris Communication will hold 40% (will move its
 assets and 100 consultants to JV Company) and NIIT Technologies will have a 60% share for which
 it will invest US$3.2mn. JV will have a revenue commitment of US$85mn from Morris Communication
 for 5 years to offer managed services (Integrated IT and BPO services). Though, the Morris deal may
 not contribute any margins in FY12, going forward higher off-shoring from Morris likely to yield
 positive margins.


 In Q2FY12 for ~1.5 months of operations, NIIT Media Technologies reported revenues of Rs.75 mn
 (US$1.7mn) and a loss of Rs.98mn (due to one time legal and professional fee of US$2.5mn). Going
 forward revenue contribution from the JV is likely to increase up to US$5mn per quarter. Learning
 curve benefits of the JV will help in winning more such deals in the media space, moreover, Morris
 Communication has offices across the US, UK, France and Asia, which will act as a near shore
 centers.


 Eurostar deal:


 In Q1FY12, it signed a large deal with Eurostar to provide managed services. NIIT Technologies will
 create the infrastructure and charge on a utility basis. NIIT Technologies is likely to invest £3mn
 (US$4.68mn) on infrastructure. During Q2FY12, revenue contribution from the deal was insignificant
 as the project was under a transition period; however, starting from Q3FY12 it will contribute
 significantly to the top line.




Though the domestic businesses (Government business) mount pressure on margins, we believe
increase in non linear revenue will provide a cushion to margin.
Order book gives revenue visibility…


NIIT Technologies opening order book (executable in next 12 months) has grown at a CAGR of 17.3%
from US$76 mn in FY07 to US$169 mn in FY12. Historically company revenue to opening balance of
order book was in the range of 1.9X ~ 2.6X (average of 2.1X for the period between FY07 – FY12). Our
revenue estimates for FY12 is at the lower end of the range (i.e. 1.9X of FY12 opening balance of order
book) in the midst of uncertain global economic condition.




Source: CSEC Research



At the end of Q2FY12, NIIT Technologies’ order book (executable in next 12 months) stood at US$232
mn, thus indicating strong revenue visibility. During the quarter new orders worth US$200 mn,including
orders from CCTNS worth US$40 ~45mn and Morris Communication deal worth US$85 mn, were bagged
from 7 clients. The outsanding order book and new orders are amongs the highest in its hisory.




Source: CSEC Research
Domestic business to support revenue during global uncertainties…


Amongst tier II players, NIIT Technologies has got one of the highest exposures to Indian and Asian
markets with 15.7% and 13.8% of revenues in FY11. Revenues from these geographies grew faster than
the companies average (CAGR of 14.6%) at a CAGR of 22.5% and 18.1% from FY05 to FY11.




Source: CSEC Research



Domestic business accounts approximately for 20% of order book. This gives comfort amidst global
uncertainties. After successfully completing the Rs. 2,290 mn worth Border Security Force (BSF) deal
(won in Q4FY10), NIIT Technologies has won an another large deal from the Indian Government worth
approximately US$40 – 45 mn in Q2FY12 under Crime and Criminal Tracking Network & Systems
(CCTNS) program to implement in two states. The deal was won under stiff competition from both
domestic and international players.


CCTNS program is one of the 27 mission mode projects under the Rs. 230,000 mn national e-
governance plan. The CCTNS deal likely to have higher hardware component (approximately 65% ~75%
of the deal) and the revenue from the deal will start flowing in from Q4FY12. Going forward this throws
the door wide open for NIIT Technologies to bid for more such government projects.
Inorganic growth – an integral element of growth strategy


NIIT Technologies has pursued acquisition and collaboration as integral part of its growth strategy.
Through this strategy it forayed into new geographies, emerging technologies, strengthen its technical
capabilities, expanded its customer base.


In 2002 NIIT Technologies acquired AD Solutions AG (ADS), a German IT company headquartered in
Germany with subsidiaries in Austria and Switzerland. This acquisition facilitated NIIT Technologies to
expand its foothold in Germany, Switzerland and Austria. It also helped the company to build a strategic
relationship with Deutsche Bahn (German Railways).


In May 2006, NIIT Technologies acquired a major shareholding in Room Solutions, through which it got
access to the Lloyds insurance market. NIIT Technologies has turned around operations of Room
Solutions. In Q2FY07 operating margins were 4%, through synergy and process integration operating
margin have improved substantially to 27% in Q2FY12. During this period revenues have grown to Rs
398 mn at ~9.4% CAGR.




Source: Company, CSEC Research



In FY11, NIIT Technologies foray into healthcare business in US, by acquiring an electronic health
records and referral management platform called “Preferr” (Patient Referral System) enables
collaboration between all providers namely physicians, hospitals, diagnostic facilities and laboratories.


In August 2011, NIIT Technologies acquired Spain based Proyecta Sistemas with revenue of about
US$10 mn (Travel accounts for 68% of revenue, 23% from BFSI and 9% from others) with EBIDTA
margin of 10%. Through this acquisition it got access to marquee clients such as Iberia, Solimat and
Pullmantur in the travel space and Merrill Lynch, Santander and BBVA in BFSI space. Moreover through
this acquisition will facilitate a foray into other Spanish speaking countries in Latin America. It would also
use Proyecta as a near shore center and providing technology backend from India.


Joint Venture: NIIT Technologies has been partnering with ESRI Inc, USA, when it began reselling and
supporting ARCInfo software. In 1996, the collaboration evolved into a strategic relationship to form a JV
to provide GIS in India. This collaboration has enabled NIIT Technologies to access ESRI Inc, know how
on GIS services. In FY11, NIIT Technologies GIS revenue stood at Rs. 934 mn i.e. 7.6% of company’s
revenue.




Source: Company, CSEC Research
Financials

Revenue to grow at a CAGR of 25%...


We expect NIIT Technologies revenue to grow at a CAGR of 25% between FY11 – FY13 to Rs. 19,291
mn. Strong order book, higher domestic business and revenue flow from new deal i.e. Morris
Communication and Eurostar gives thrust to our revenue assumption.




Source: CSEC Research


Going forward margins to be under pressure…


We expect NIIT Technologies margins to come under pressure due to low margin from hardware
component of Crime and Criminal Tracking Network Systems (CCTNS) deal, investment in SG&A and
margin pressure from new deal wins (Since the Morris deal is in transition period it will not contribute any
margins till Q1FY13) and Proyecta acquisition having low operating margin of ~10%.




Source: CSEC Research
However, higher non-linear revenues, rupee depreciation, higher off shoring from the Morris deal and a
broadening employee pyramid (management plan to broaden the base of employee pyramid. Currently
the proposition of employees with <3yrs of experience is ~30%, and it will be increased by hiring more
fresher’s in FY13) will curtail margin erosion.




Source: CSEC Research



We have penciled in a 226 bps drop in operating margins in FY12 to 17.2% and a 30 bps improvement in
FY13 by 30 bps to 17.5%. We have assumed a tax rate to be 26.1% and 25% for FY12 and FY13
respectively. We expect a PAT margin of 11.8% and 11.2% in FY12 and FY13 respectively.


Outlook & Valuations:


We expect NIIT Technologies to report an EPS of Rs. 31.3 and Rs. 36.5 for FY12E and FY13E. At the
CMP of Rs. 200 the stock trades at 6.4X and 5.5X to the FY12E and FY13E earnings respectively. We
have arrived at a target price of Rs. 255 is based on 7x FY13E EPS. We recommend NIIT Technologies
as an “Outperformer” rating with a potential upside of 28% from current level.




Source: CSEC Research
Financials

Income Statement                              (Rs. million)            Cash flow Statement                          (Rs. million)
Particulars                  FY10     FY11      FY12E         FY13E    Particulars                 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
Net Sales                    9,138   12,323     15,752        19,291
Growth %                     -6.8%   34.9%       27.8%        22.5%    Net Cash from Operations    1,475     663       1,658        2,172
Operating Expense            7,249    9,919     13,035        15,914
Operating Profit             1,889    2,404      2,717         3,377   Net Cash from Investments    -925     -374       -703         -998
Depreciation                   360      315        397           521
Other Income                  -109       89        194           110   Net Cash from Financing      -607     -549       -652         -636
PBT                          1,420    2,178      2,514         2,967
Tax                            144      323        656           742   Net Increase in Cash          -57     -259        302         538
PAT                          1,276    1,855      1,858         2,225
Minority Interest               13       33          3            60   Closing Balance of Cash     1,430 1,194         1,496        2,035
PAT after Minority Int.      1,263    1,822      1,855         2,165
EPS                           21.5     30.9        31.3         36.5   FCF                         1,061     182         887        1,164



Balance Sheet                                 (Rs. million)            Ratios
Particulars                  FY10     FY11      FY12E         FY13E    Particulars                  FY10     FY11 FY12E FY13E
Share Capital                  588      593        593           593   EBIDTA%                     20.7%    19.5% 17.2% 17.5%
Share Application Money          0        0          0             0   PBT %                       15.5%    17.7% 16.0% 15.4%
Reserves and Surplus         5,210    6,886      8,176         9,765   PAT %                       13.8%    14.8% 11.8% 11.2%
Minority Interest               28       43         49            49   RoE%                        26.1%    27.4% 22.8% 22.6%
Borrowings                     217      110        110           110   RoCE%                       36.7%    35.2% 32.8% 34.7%
Total Source of Funds        6,043    7,631      8,928        10,517   Tax%                        10.1%    14.8% 26.1% 25.0%
                                                                       Debtors (Days)                  80      109   109   109
Net Block                    1,853    1,893      3,544         3,891   Creditors (Days)                39       36    39    39
CWIP                         1,287    1,437        160           300   CEPS (Rs.)                    27.6     36.2  38.0  45.3
Investments                    465      443        450           450   DPS (Rs.)                      7.0      7.5   8.0   8.5
DTA (Net)                      107      143        143           143
Net Current Asset            2,330    3,715      4,632         5,734
Total Application of Funds   6,043    7,631      8,928        10,517
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                                                                            REGIONAL EQUITY MANAGER
CHENNAI                           Mr. Lakshmanan T S P                       9840019701                                          lakshmanantsp@chola.murugappa.com
EAST & WEST                       Mr. Ananthanarayan J                       9930103070                                          ananthanarayanj@chola.murugapa.com
SOUTH                             Mr. Shankar P V                            9840494132                                          shankarpv@chola.murugappa.com

                                                                                     RESEARCH
Mr. Alagappan A                   Financial Services                         044-3000 7363                                       alagappana@chola.murugappa.com
Mr. P.Vinayakam                   Power                                      044-30007266                                        vinayakamp@chola.murugappa.com
Mr.Sathyanarayanan M              Information Technology                     044-30007361                                        sathyanarayananm@chola.murugappa.com

                                                                                    COMPLIANCE
Mr.Balaji H                       Dy.Manager-Compliance                      044 - 3000 7370                                     balajih@chola.murugappa.com

DISCLAIMER:
The research analyst who primarily responsible for this report certifies that: (1) all of the views expressed in this in this report accurately reflect personal personal opinions about
The research analyst who is is primarily responsible for this report certifies that: (1) all of the views expressed report accurately reflect his or herhis or heropinions about any and all
any and all of the subject securities or issuers; of any ofno part of any of thecompensation was, is, or will be directly oris, or will related to the specific recommendations or views
of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part and (2) the research analyst's research analyst's compensation was, indirectly be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed in this report. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is already available in publicly accessible media or developed
expressed in this report. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of Cholamandalam
through analysis of Cholamandalam Securities Limited. Cholamandalam Securities Limited makes every effort to use reliable, comprehensive information, but we make no
Securities Limited. Cholamandalam Securities Limited makes every effort to use reliable, comprehensive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete.
representation that it is accurate or complete.


The views expressed are those of the analyst and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein Cholamandalam Securities Limited reserves the
right to make modifications and alterations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. Cholamandalam Securities Limited, its
affiliates, directors and employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in or deal as agent in or for the securities mentioned in this
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This report is for private circulation and for information purposes only. It does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice and has been prepared without regard to
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advice of a financial advisor with regard to the appropriateness of investing in any securities / investment strategies recommended in this report. The appropriateness of a
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STOCK RATINGS : Outperformer:>15% upside over the next 12 months; Marketperformer: trade within a +/-15% range over the next 12 months; underperformer:>15%
downside over the next 12 months.

								
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