Money Derilook-030112_14_0301120912 by icestar

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									            Money Derilook                                                                                                             03 January 2012                                                Aditya Birla Money


            Nifty Synopsis

        Particulars                                       Spot                                     Future                        Prem. / Disc.            Futures OI                                    PCR OI                                     PCR VOL                                    VIX (%)
        Current                                      4636.75                                       4648.1                                         11.35   21273800                                           1.07                                      0.88                                    27.53
        Previous                                       4624.3                                      4634.4                                         10.10   20893800                                           1.06                                      1.09                                    27.11
        Change (%)                                            0.27                                     0.30                                   –                 1.82                                             –                                           –                                    1.55

            Outlook                                                                                                                                        Nifty Spot vs PCR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
                Nifty Futures open interest saw a increase of around 1.82% and
                                                                                                                                                           1.20                                                                                                                                           4800
                 Nifty Futures saw a increase of around 0.30%: Indicating Long build
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          4750
                 up in Nifty.

            
                                                                                                                                                           0.80                                                                                                                                           4700
                 India VIX saw a increase of around 1.55%: Indicating negativenes for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          4650
                 the market.
                                                                                                                                                           0.40                                                                                                                                           4600
                The PCR for Nifty based on open interest was up at 1.07 as
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          4550
                 compared to 1.06 as of the previous trading day: Indicating
                                                                                                                                                           0.00                                                                                                                                           4500
                 positivenes for the market.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2-Jan
                                                                                                                                                                               21-Dec

                                                                                                                                                                                             22-Dec

                                                                                                                                                                                                             23-Dec

                                                                                                                                                                                                                             26-Dec

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         27-Dec

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    28-Dec

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   29-Dec

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              30-Dec
                Nifty Futures is trading at a premium of 11-12 points as compared
                 to a premium of 10-11 points as of the previous trading day:
                                                                                                                                                                                                 PCR – OI                                 PCR – Vol                                Nifty Spot
                 Indicating positivenes for the market.

                High put option open interest build up of around 5.2 mn is seen at                                                                       Source: NSE
                 4500 strike: Indicating that the traders are betting that 4500-4430 might
                 act as strong support.                                                                                                                    Nifty Options OI built up (Current expiry)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
                High call option open interest build up of around 3.9 mn is seen at
                 4700 strike: Indicating that the traders are betting that 4700-4790 might
                                                                                                                                                                        6
                 act as strong resistance.
                                                                                                                                                                        5
                In call options 4700 strike saw a addition in open interest of around                                                                                  4
                                                                                                                                                            Millions




                 0.33 mn: Further indicating that 4700 might act as a resistance.
                                                                                                                                                                        3
                In put options 4600 strike saw a addition in open interest of around                                                                                   2
                 0.49 mn: Indicating that 4600 might act as a intermediate support.                                                                                     1
                Securities in Ban for Trade are: - RUCHISOYA.                                                                                                          0
                                                                                                                                                                                   4100

                                                                                                                                                                                                 4200

                                                                                                                                                                                                               4300

                                                                                                                                                                                                                             4400

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         4500

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   4600

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 4700

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            4800

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       4900

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  5000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           5100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Put OI              Call OI


                                                                                                                                                          Source: NSE
         

            Nifty open interest vs Nifty Futures                                                                                                           Nifty Options OI CHNG (Current expiry)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

                4850                                                                                                              35                                    0.80
                4800                                                                                                              30                                    0.70
                4750                                                                                                                                                    0.60
                4700                                                                                                              25
                                                                                                                                                                        0.50
                                                                                                                                       Millions




                4650                                                                                                              20                                    0.40
                                                                                                                                                            Millions




                4600                                                                                                              15                                    0.30
                4550                                                                                                              10                                    0.20
                4500                                                                                                                                                    0.10
                4450                                                                                                              5                                     0.00
                4400                                                                                                              0                                    -0.10
                                                                                                                                                                       -0.20
                          19-Dec
                                   20-Dec
                                            21-Dec
                                                     22-Dec
                                                                   23-Dec
                                                                            26-Dec
                                                                                     27-Dec
                                                                                              28-Dec
                                                                                                       29-Dec
                                                                                                                30-Dec
                                                                                                                         2-Jan




                                                                                                                                                                                          4100

                                                                                                                                                                                                      4200

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      4300

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  4400

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            4500

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     4600

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   4700

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             4800

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        4900

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   5000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            5100




                                                              OI                     Nifty Futures
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Put OI CHNG                     Call OI CHNG
            Source: NSE

                                                                                                                                                          Source: NSE




                                                                                                                         Aditya Birla Money Limited
                             2nd   Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400
                                                                                                                                         Page No: 1
            Money Derilook                                                                                     03 January 2012                                                   Aditya Birla Money



                FII Derivatives Statistics (` in Cr.)                                                                                            FII vs Nifty Spot
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

        Product                                  Buy              Sell                   Net                  OI                                     2000                                                                                                                               4800
                                                                                                                                                     1000                                                                                                                               4750
        INDEX FUTURES                           471.87           891.02                 -419.15          9267.00                                        0                                                                                                                               4700
                                                                                                                                                    (1000)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        4650
        INDEX OPTIONS                           7830.84          7649.66                181.18           23669.09                                   (2000)
                                                                                                                                                    (3000)                                                                                                                              4600

        STOCK FUTURES                           703.08           616.70                 86.37            22424.95                                   (4000)                                                                                                                              4550
                                                                                                                                                    (5000)                                                                                                                              4500




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2-Jan
                                                                                                                                                                    23-Dec

                                                                                                                                                                                  26-Dec

                                                                                                                                                                                                               27-Dec

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           28-Dec

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         29-Dec

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      30-Dec
        STOCK OPTIONS                           304.84           295.71                  9.13                654.04

        Total                                   9310.62          9453.09                -142.47          56015.08                                                                                 FII B/S                           OI               Nifty Spot

        Source: NSE
                                                                                                                                                 Source: NSE


                    FII‘s were net sellers to the tune of ` 142.47 Cr with an open interest of around ` 56,015.08 Cr. In Index Options FII’s were net buyers
                     to the tune of ` 181.18 Cr with an open interest of around ` 23,669.09 Cr. In Index Futures FII’s were net sellers to the tune of ` 419.15
                     Cr with an open interest increase of around ` 171.86 Cr: Indicating Short build up in Index Futures by FII’s also FII’s buying in Index
                     Options indicates that they are expecting volatility to go up which is negative for the market.

             

                Sectoral Movement
                                                                                                                              
                 8

                 6

                 4

                 2

                 0

                -2

                -4


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Shipping
                                                                                                                                                                       Finance


                                                                                                                                                                                     Chemicals & Fertilizers
                                      Banking




                                                                                                                   Telecom


                                                                                                                                 Capital Goods




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Media




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Others
                                                                                                                                                 Pharma




                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Infra
                                                Cement


                                                          FMCG




                                                                               Metals
                                                                   Oil & Gas




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Real Estate
                                                                                                                                                            Power




                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Sugar
                         Auto




                                                                                                        IT
                                                                                           Textiles




                                                                                                                % Change Price                            % Change OI


            Source: NSE

                    Long build up was seen in: Oil & Gas and IT.

                    Short build up was seen in: Auto, Textiles and Infra.


         




                                                                                                      Aditya Birla Money Limited
                                2nd   Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400
                                                                                                                Page No: 2
         Money Derilook                                                     03 January 2012                   Aditya Birla Money



          Option Activity
                                                                                   
        Stock                                         Fut Price          Option Type                 Strike                OI_Chng                          OI

        IFCI                                              22.65              C                        22.5                19,36,000                   33,12,000
        SUZLON                                             18.2              C                          20                14,16,000                   34,64,000
        UNITECH                                           19.45              C                          20                14,00,000                   26,72,000
        UNITECH                                           19.45              P                        17.5                11,76,000                   24,72,000
        IFCI                                              22.65              P                          20                10,56,000                   31,20,000
        RCOM                                              72.65              C                          80                 8,20,000                   19,16,000
        HINDALCO                                          113.3              C                         120                 6,88,000                   14,48,000
        JPASSOCIAT                                         53.2              C                          60                 5,20,000                   25,52,000
        HINDALCO                                          113.3              P                         100                 4,04,000                    8,98,000
        IDEA                                              83.25              C                          90                 3,96,000                    5,56,000
        HDIL                                              54.45              C                          60                 3,22,000                   11,36,000
        TATAMOTORS                                        184.7              P                         170                 2,84,000                    9,36,000
        DLF                                               178.6              C                         190                 2,63,000                    7,39,000
        IDFC                                               92.4              C                         100                 2,42,000                   12,90,000
        IDFC                                               92.4              P                          90                 1,68,000                    5,10,000
        TATAMOTORS                                        184.7              C                         180                 1,66,000                    8,48,000
        STER                                               90.9              C                          95                 1,52,000                    2,66,000
        RELIANCE                                        713.35               P                         700                 1,48,250                    4,22,000
        DLF                                               178.6              P                         160                 1,30,000                    3,75,000
        BHARTIARTL                                      346.35               P                         340                 1,24,000                    4,29,000
        BHARTIARTL                                      346.35               C                         380                 1,06,000                    3,04,000
        TATASTEEL                                           342              C                         340                 1,04,000                    2,68,500
        Source: NSE




              High OI addition of around 8,20,000 was seen in 80 Call of RCOM: Indicating that 80 might act as a strong Resistance for it.

              High OI addition of around 5,20,000 was seen in 60 Call of JPASSOCIAT: Indicating that 60 might act as a strong Resistance for
               it.




          Top 5 Stock Options
                                                                                   
                            Scrip                              Strike                         CA/PA                                 Volume

                      RELIANCE                                    700                           PE                                    3059
                            SBIN                                  1700                          CE                                    2892
                            IFCI                                  25                            CE                                    2606
                            SBIN                                  1600                          PE                                    2530
                      RELIANCE                                    700                           CE                                    2359

        Source: NSE




                                                                   Aditya Birla Money Limited
                      2nd   Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400
                                                                            Page No: 3
        Money Derilook                                                     03 January 2012                   Aditya Birla Money


        Open Interest Gainers
                                                                                                                                                              
        Long Buildup
                                                                                   
                      Scrip                        Price             Price change            % Price Change             % OI Change            % Delivery

               SOUTHBANK                           20.70                  0.35                     1.72                     45.69                 36.45
              NATIONALUM                           54.05                  2.90                     5.67                     24.19                 53.17
                  GLAXO                          1996.50                 54.95                     2.83                     23.81                 53.27
              ORCHIDCHEM                          134.60                  7.65                     6.03                     17.43                 10.08
                  GVKPIL                           12.55                  0.90                     7.73                     12.00                 30.04
        Source: NSE

        Short Buildup
                                                                                   
                      Scrip                        Price             Price change           % Price Change             % OI Change            % Delivery

                TVSMOTOR                           46.80                  -5.15                   -9.91                    37.21                 22.64

              HEROMOTOCO                          1829.55                -70.75                   -3.72                    20.18                 42.74

                       OIL                        1158.20                -13.30                   -1.14                    16.51                 60.52

                BAJAJ-AUTO                        1479.55               -121.15                   -7.57                    15.14                 33.58

                       MAX                        145.05                  -2.75                   -1.86                    15.06                 65.49

        Source: NSE

        Open Interest Losers
                                                                                                                                                              
        Short Covering
                                                                                   
                      Scrip                        Price             Price change            % Price Change             % OI Change            % Delivery

               IVRCLINFRA                          29.15                  0.85                     3.00                     -4.29                 23.80
                 VOLTAS                            75.60                  1.60                     2.16                     -3.66                 29.23
                       LT                        1013.30                 14.55                     1.46                     -3.12                 17.87
               HINDOILEXP                          91.75                  1.35                     1.49                     -2.76                     9.99
               GODREJIND                          174.20                  2.75                     1.60                     -2.34                 28.15
        Source: NSE

        Long Unwinding
                                                                                   
                      Scrip                        Price             Price change           % Price Change             % OI Change             % Delivery

                CENTRALBK                          65.35                  -1.00                   -1.51                    -7.35                 43.04

                      DCHL                         33.65                  -3.15                   -8.56                    -4.29                 33.31

                       PNB                        758.70                  -7.35                   -0.96                    -2.61                 31.40
                 SIEMENS                          635.65                  -6.35                   -0.99                    -2.34                 39.84

                       ITC                        199.45                  -3.25                   -1.60                    -1.23                 49.87

        Source: NSE



           Long build up was seen in: NATIONALUM, ORCHIDCHEM and GVKPIL.

           Short build up was seen in: TVSMOTOR, HEROMOTOCO and BAJAJ-AUTO.




                                                                  Aditya Birla Money Limited
                      2nd   Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400
                                                                            Page No: 4
         Money Derilook                                                     03 January 2012                   Aditya Birla Money




                                                                                Research Team
                                      Vivek Mahajan                                                           Hemant Thukral
                                      Head of Research                                                        Head – Derivatives Desk
                                      022-42333522                                                            022-42333483
                                      vivek.mahajan@adityabirla.com                                           hemant.thukral@adityabirla.com



         Fundamental Team
         Avinash Nahata                   Head of Fundamental Desk                     022-42333459              avinash.nahata@adityabirla.com
         Akhil Jain                       Metals & Mining                              022-42333540              akhil.jain@adityabirla.com
         Sunny Agrawal                    FMCG/Cement                                  022-42333458              sunny.agrawal@adityabirla.com
         Sumit Jatia                      Banking & Finance                            022-42333460              sumit.jatia@adityabirla.com
         Shreyans Mehta                   Construction/Real Estate                     022-42333544              shreyans.m@adityabirla.com
         Dinesh Kumar                     Information Technology/Auto                  022-42333531              dinesh.kumar.k@adityabirla.com
         Pradeep Parkar                   Database/Production                          022-42333597              pradeep.parkar@adityabirla.com



         Quantitative Team
         Rizwan Khan                      Technical and Derivative Strategist          022-42333454              rizwan.khan@adityabirla.com
         Jyoti Nangrani                   Sr. Technical Analyst                        022-42333454              jyoti.nangrani@adityabirla.com
         Raghuram                         Technical Analyst                            022-42333537              raghuram.p@adityabirla.com
         Rahul Tendolkar                  Derivatives Analyst                          022-42333532              rahul.tendolkar@adityabirla.com
         Amit Somani                      Derivative Analyst                           022-42333532              amit.somani@adityabirla.com



         Advisory Support
         Indranil Dutta                   Advisory Desk – HNI                          022-42333494              indranil.dutta@adityabirla.com
         Suresh Gardas                    Advisory Desk                                022-42333535              suresh.gardas@adityabirla.com
         Sandeep Pandey                   Advisory Desk                                022-30442104              sandeep.pandey@adityabirla.com


        ABML research is also accessible in Bloomberg at ABMR

          




                                                                   Aditya Birla Money Limited
                       2nd   Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400
                                                                                Page No: 5
            Money Derilook                                                 03 January 2012                   Aditya Birla Money




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                                                                  Aditya Birla Money Limited
                      2nd   Floor, Sheil Estate, Dani Corporate Park, 158 CST Road, Kalina, Santacruz (East), Mumbai 400 098 | Tel: +91 22 42333400
                                                                            Page No: 6

								
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