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					                                                                                                       20 January 2012
                                                                                3QFY12 Results Update | Sector: Metals



                                                                  Jindal Steel & Power
BSE SENSEX               S&P CNX
16,644                     5,018
                                    CMP: INR518                        TP: INR636                              Buy
Bloomberg                 JSP IN
Equity Shares (m)          934.1
52-Week Range (INR)      724/436
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)   -2/-8/-13
M.Cap. (INR b)             483.9
M.Cap. (USD b)                9.6
                                    Consolidated

     Consolidated adjusted PAT grew 4% YoY to INR10.2b, below our estimate of INR11b. Reported consolidated
      PAT was INR9.96b, which included an exceptional gain of INR259m and forex loss of INR500m. JSPL has not
      adopted the new guidelines for amortization of forex loss over a longer period.
     Jindal Power's revenue and PAT for the quarter were higher than we had estimated - at INR8b and INR4.8b,
      respectively. Power generation was 2,255mkwh at PLF of 102%. Power rate is estimated at INR3.94/kwh.
     Two captive units of 135MW have been commissioned at Dongamahua, Chhattisgarh in January 2012. Also,
      these units have received open access permissions to sell power at merchant rates. Merchant tariffs are
      likely to be >INR4/kwh, while the cost is ~INR2.2/kwh. The improved margins and higher volumes are likely
      to drive earnings.
     Power rates on surplus power sales to Odisha state from the 270MW CPP have been revised upwards by
      INR0.3/kwh to INR3.05/kwh.
     Steel production during the quarter was a record 757k tons although sales were down 1% QoQ to 591k tons.
      Steel inventories built as of December 2011 have since been liquidated at higher realizations. We expect
      steel sales volumes to be higher and margins to be superior in 4QFY12.
     Earnings growth is likely to moderate post 4QFY12 due to delays in the Angul steel and coal mine projects. We
      are cutting our EPS estimate for FY13 by 9% to INR49.9. Earnings are likely to grow 12.6% in FY13. The stock
      trades at 10.4x FY13E EPS. Maintain Buy.




Sanjay Jain (SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com);Tel: +9122 3982 5412
Pavas Pethia (Pavas.Pethia@MotilalOswal.com); Tel: +9122 3982 5413
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jindal Steel & Power



                                                                           Standalone: EBITDA below estimate; Pellet and Steel sales volumes
                                                                           disappoints despite strong growth in steel production
                                                                                    Adjusted EBITDA declined 12% QoQ (+12% YoY) to INR 10.5b (below est. of
                                                                                     INR12.1b) due to lower than estimated sales of steel products, pellet and power.
                                                                                     Forex loss of INR500m has been adjusted from other expenditure.
                                                                                    Net sales declined 1% QoQ to INR 33b due to lower volumes. Company sold 464kt
                                                                                     pellets (against our est. of 589kt) and 38.5kt of metalics during the quarter.
                                                                                     Adjusted PAT declined 28% QoQ (-8% YoY) to INR 4.61b.
                                                                                    Sales tonnage of steel products remained flat QoQ at 591kt (below est. of 611kt).
                                                                                     Steel production however grew 20% QoQ and 30% YoY to 757kt. There was
                                                                                     accumulation of inventories of INR3.7b.
                                                                                    Pellet production grew marginally by 4% QoQ to 938kt vs est. of 1.1m tons. Pellet
                                                                                     plant has still not achieved full capacity utilization of 4.5mtpa. Power generation
                                                                                     from CPP grew 25% QoQ to 1182 Mkwh vs. est. of 1300 MKwh. Correspondingly;
                                                                                     power sales from CPP were lower at 350Mkwh vs est. of 498Mkwh.
                                                                                    2x135MW CPP units one each at Angul and Raigarh were commissioned on 18th
                                                                                     January, 2012. With this 4 units at Raigarh and 2 units at Angul have been
                                                                                     commissioned so far.
Best ever steel production (kt)                                                                                                             Pellets sales dropped due to higher captive consumption

                    Steel product s a l es                                      Steel product producti on                                                                        Meta ll i cs                                           Pel l ets
                                                                                                      757                                                                                                                                                         526
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            464
                                                                                             623 608 630
                                                                                     563 582
                                                                                                                                                                                                            202
                                                         547                                                                                                                                                                                        347
                              454 460 454                         492 506
 409
           343 373
                                                                                                                                                                                                   130


                                                                                                                                                                                                                     90                210

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              104
                                                                                                                          598
                                                                                                                                   591
                                                                  544




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 226
                                                                                                        531
                                                                                               503
                              477
                                       458




                                                                                      462




                                                                                                                 457




                                                                                                                                                                                                                     100
                                                404




                                                                           404
                                                         398
           373
  360


                     305




                                                                                                                                                                                                                              30
                                                                                                                                             107
                                                                                                                                                      176
                                                                                                                                                               186
                                                                                                                                                                        196
                                                                                                                                                                                 117
                                                                                                                                                                                          136




                                                                                                                                                                                                   0 12                                93
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                49


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   29
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            39
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         0
                                                                                                                                             1QFY09
                                                                                                                                                      2QFY09
                                                                                                                                                               3QFY09
                                                                                                                                                                        4QFY09
                                                                                                                                                                                 1QFY10
                                                                                                                                                                                          2QFY10
                                                                                                                                                                                                   3QFY10
                                                                                                                                                                                                            4QFY10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1QFY11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2QFY11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       3QFY11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                4QFY11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         1QFY12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2QFY12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            3QFY12
  1QFY09
           2QFY09
                     3QFY09
                              4QFY09
                                       1QFY10
                                                2QFY10
                                                         3QFY10
                                                                  4QFY10
                                                                            1QFY11
                                                                                      2QFY11
                                                                                               3QFY11
                                                                                                        4QFY11
                                                                                                                 1QFY12
                                                                                                                          2QFY12
                                                                                                                                   3QFY12




                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Source: Company/MOSL




20 January 2012                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jindal Steel & Power



                                                                          Iron and steel overseas: INR1.7b EBIT
                                                                           EBIT from steel segment of overseas business i.e. Shadeed sponge iron in Oman
                                                                            and South African coal mines was flat QoQ at INR1.67b.
                                                                           The profit from Oman unit was USD13m and from South African coal was USD18m.




                                                                          Jindal Power
                                                                          Jindal Power's Revenue and PAT were above estimates at INR 8b and INR 4.8b
                                                                          respectively. Power generation was 2,255M Kwh at PLF of 102%.Merchant realization
                                                                          stood at INR4.06/kwh while average realization was ~INR3.97/kwh.

Jindal Power: PAT and Realization                                                                                                         Best ever PLF of 102%

                               PAT (INR b)                                 Rea li zati on (INR/kwh)                                                                            Genera ti on (M Kwh)                                            PLF (%)

                    6.7 6.5 6.4                                                                                                                                                                         101    101 101 99    102
                                                                                                                                                             88 91
                                                                                                                                                                   96                             95 97     89            93
                                               5.2 5.1                                                                                                                                   84
          5.0                                                    4.6 4.5 4.3                                                                        70
 4.0                                                                         4.0 4.1 3.9 4.0 3.9                                          59
                            7.0
                    5.7 6.5     5.1 5.8 5.2 5.6 4.6 4.9 5.0 4.5
                                                                4.1 4.8
                                                                                                                                                    1,490
                                                                                                                                                             1,951
                                                                                                                                                                      1,966
                                                                                                                                                                                2,091
                                                                                                                                                                                         1,851
                                                                                                                                                                                                  2,120
                                                                                                                                                                                                           2,086
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2,210
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1,972
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2,238
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2,178
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2,166
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2,043
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2,255

          3.1
                                                                                                                                           962




 0.4
                                                                                                                                           1QFY09
                                                                                                                                                    2QFY09
                                                                                                                                                             3QFY09
                                                                                                                                                                      4QFY09
                                                                                                                                                                                1QFY10
                                                                                                                                                                                         2QFY10
                                                                                                                                                                                                  3QFY10
                                                                                                                                                                                                           4QFY10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    1QFY11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2QFY11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      3QFY11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                4QFY11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         1QFY12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2QFY12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           3QFY12
 1QFY09
           2QFY09
                    3QFY09
                             4QFY09
                                      1QFY10
                                               2QFY10
                                                        3QFY10
                                                                 4QFY10
                                                                           1QFY11
                                                                                    2QFY11
                                                                                             3QFY11
                                                                                                      4QFY11
                                                                                                               1QFY12
                                                                                                                        2QFY12
                                                                                                                                 3QFY12




                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Source: Company/MOSL




E: MOSL Estimates; Note: Quarterly data (except for Gross generation; Net Sales and PAT) are assumed for Analysis

20 January 2012                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     3
                                                                                    Jindal Steel & Power



                  Steel sales volumes are expected to be stronger and margins superior in
                  4QFY12
                   2 units of 135MW captive power capacity at Dongamahua, Chhattisgarh have been
                    commissioned in January 2012. Also, these units have received open access
                    permissions to sell power at merchant rates. Merchant tariffs are expected to be
                    >INR4/kwh, while the costs is ~INR2.2/kwh. The improved margins and higher
                    volumes are likely to drive earnings.
                   Power rates on surplus power sales to Odisha state from 270MW CPP have been
                    revised upwards by Paise30/kwh to INR3.05/kwh.
                   Steel production during the quarter was record 757kt although sales were down
                    1% QoQ to 591kt. Steel inventories built as of Dec-11 has since been liquidated at
                    higher realizations. Steel sales volumes are expected to be stronger and margins
                    superior in 4QFY12.

                  Cutting FY13 earnings 9% due to delay in Angul project; Earnings growth is
                  moderating
                   JSPL achieved record steel production of 757kt in 3QFY12. Steel production is
                    unlikely to grow further in FY13 because Raigarh plant has achieved peak
                    production and Angul steel project is further delayed to December 2012. We are
                    cutting FY13 steel and DRI production volumes by 650kt and 180kt respectively to
                    factor the delays in Angul steel project.
                   Pellet plant has been producing around 800-900kt on quarterly basis for last 4
                    quarter and is unable to achieve 4.5mtpa run-rate. Therefore, we are cutting Pellet
                    production by 400kt to 4m tons for FY13.
                   Jindal power's average power rate realization has been revised upwards from
                    INR3.7/kwh to INR4/kwh to factor improvement in merchant power rates for short
                    term contracts. For Captive power plants at Angul, rate for surplus power sale to
                    Odisha has been increased by 30paise to INR3.05/kwh. For Raigarh CPP surplus
                    power sales, the rates are revised from INR2.37/kwh to INR3.7/kwh due to open
                    access to merchant power market.
                   As a result, FY13 EPS is cut 9% to INR49.9. Although 4QFY12 earnings will be
                    substantially higher QoQ due to liquidation of steel inventory and revision of
                    power rates, earning growth will moderate thereafter due to delay in Angul steel
                    and coal mine projects.




20 January 2012                                                                                       4
                                                                                      Jindal Steel & Power




                  Concall highlights
                  Standalone: Increase in inventory due to lackluster steel demand; higher
                  quantity of HBI was imported from Shadeed Oman
                     Indian steel business imported HBI from Shadeed (Oman) to produce steel. As a
                      result, steel production increased 20% QoQ to 756kt and achieved run rate of
                      3mtpa first time.
                     Steel sales volumes declined 1% QoQ to 591kt due to lacklustre demand. Steel
                      inventories increased by 100kt QoQ to ~300kt. Total inventories stood at INR15b
                      at end of 3QFY12 Vs INR10b in 2QFY12 due to sluggish demand and logistical issues.
                     Company sold 150kt of iron ore fines in this quarter as well.
                     Forex loss of INR 530m accounted in other expenditure. Total outstanding ECB are
                      USD400m. Debt in standalone entity stood at INR150b while consolidated debt
                      stood at INR170b at end of 3QFY12.
                     Company plans total Capex of INR100b till FY13 including INR40b for Tamnar II
                      project.
                     Fixed assets stood at INR100b while CWIP stood at INR100b. Apparently, the Capex
                      during 3Q was approx. INR5.4b.

                  Jindal Power
                     Power generation was 2,255M Kwh at PLF of 102%. Merchant realization stood at
                      INR4.06/kwh while average realization was ~INR3.97/kwh

                  Green field Projects: Angul steel and coal mine project delayed 3 months;
                  plans to commission 2x600MW at Tamnar-II by March 2014
                   Angul steel project: 2mtpa gas based Sponge iron is expected to get commissioned
                    by December 2012 i.e. a delay of 3 months. Import component of DRI equipment
                    is yet to arrive. We expect steel production to start in a meaningful way only in
                    FY14 now.
                   Angul Coal mines: Production is now expected to start operations by July 2012 i.e.
                    a delay of 3 months.
                   Tamnar II: Project work re-started two months ago and company now expects
                    2x600MW to get operational by March 2014 and remaining 2 units with a lag of 4
                    months each. This is a delay of 1 year from the original schedule. JPL has already
                    received coal linkage for 2x600MW and applied for linkage for the rest 2 units.
                    Importing coal from international subsidiaries remains the fallback option.
                   Goda and Dumka: JPL plans to order BTG in next 3-4 months, as process of land
                    acquisition and environment clearance is still going on.

                  Captive power Plants - Units at Raigarh stabilized and running at 90% PLF;
                  expect to commission balance 4 units by March 2012
                     JSPL has commissioned all 4 units (of 135MW each) of captive power plants at
                      Raigarh and 2 (out 6) units at Angul. Three units (2 at Raigarh and 1 at Angul) have
                      been commissioned in the month of January and are gradually ramping up. Old 3
                      units are stabilised and running at 90% PLF and expected to contribute significantly
                      in 4QFY12.



20 January 2012                                                                                         5
                                                                                      Jindal Steel & Power



                   Total loss from these units amount to ~INR800m in 9MFY12. Company expects to
                    breakeven in another 6 months. Fuel cost at 1,350MW project is estimated to be
                    ~INR1.8/Kwh. The fuel cost may fall to INR1.25-1.4/kwh after start of Angul coal
                    mine.
                   Company is targeting to commission rest 4 units of 135MW each by March 2012 (in
                    order to receive tax benefits). However profitability will improve only when Angul
                    captive coal mines start production; which is getting delayed. Company now
                    expects mine to start operation in another 6 months.
                   Company has spent ~INR60b for this 1350MW CPP and capitalised ~INR48b.


                  Overseas operations: expect USD40m annual PAT for Shadeed; Indonesia
                  coal mine delayed by 12 months
                     Oman: USD40m PAT is expected for the year, plant is running at 85% utilization. At
                      present, company is partly exporting HBI to Indian operations for steel production.
                     Bolivia: Management expects more clarity on the Bolivian operation only in the
                      next quarter. There are certain differences with the government and at present
                      discussions are going on.
                     South Africa: Expect 1m tons of coal production in FY13. The GCV of the coal is 6300
                      Kcal/kg.
                     No clarity on exact timeline for Zimbabwe and Mozambique coal mine operations.
                     Indonesia: Commencing of production at Indonesian mine is pushed to 4QFY13
                      against earlier plan of March 2012.




20 January 2012                                                                                         6
                                                                                                            Jindal Steel & Power




Jindal Steel & Power: an investment profile
Company description                                         Key investment risks
JSP currently has 3mtpa of operational steelmaking               Unexpected fall in steel prices and delay in project
capacity at Raigarh. JSP has one of the best iron ore and         execution would adversely impact earnings.
coal resources in India. JSP offers the best insulation     Recent developments
from iron ore and coking coal prices among Indian steel          JSP commissioned 3 units of 135 MW in January 2012.
producers. The company has rich iron ore and coal                 With this total 6 units have been commissioned in
resources overseas, mainly in Bolivia, Mozambique,                series of total 10 units of 135 MW.
South Africa and Indonesia.                                 Valuation and view
Key investment arguments                                         Stock is trading at PE of 10.4 x FY13. Maintain Buy.
 JSP has planned to increase its steel capacity 4x over    Sector view
  the next four years. It is augmenting its existing         Global steel demands still remains subdued due to
  3mtpa capacity, by setting up a 1.6mtpa module at           European economic problems and slow down in
  Angul. It plans to add two more modules of 1.6mtpa          construction in China. Certain raw material side
  each at Angul and Raigarh, using this technology. At        issues have prevented costs correction for steel mills
  Patratu (Jharkhand), It will produce 3mtpa of steel         thereby forcing them to cut production. Global crude
  in phase-I.                                                 steel production is down 11% to 115m tons in
 Only 1/3rd of the 12mtpa steel capacity will be             November 2011 from peak production of 130m tons
  exposed to coking coal imports.                             in May 2011. Global economic growth slow down
 Jindal Power, JSP's 96.43% subsidiary, plans to             mainly in China continues to cloud demand outlook.
  increase capacity by 10x in 10 years by adding             Indian real steel demand too has slowed down
  4,380MW of thermal power projects in Chhattisgarh           growing only 4.2% YoY to 45.2m tons during April-
  and Jharkhand at a capex of USD5.3b and 6,100MW             November 2011. We believe Indian demand will still
  of hydro power projects in Arunachal Pradesh at a           grow 7-8% over couple of years. Depreciation of INR
  capex of USD8.1b.                                           against USD and appreciating Yuan has increased
 Most of the power projects are secured for fuel             competitiveness of Indian producer's vis-à-vis their
  through captive sources. Though JSP's earnings are          Chinese counterparts, therefore lowering Chinese
  likely to be driven by strong project pipeline.             imports threat.
Comparative valuations                                      EPS: MOSL forecast v/s consensus (INR)
                             JSPL     SAIL     Tata Steel                             MOSL              Consensus     Variation
P/E (x)           FY12E      11.7     11.5        11.4                               Forecast            Forecast        (%)
                  FY13E      10.4     11.6         7.9          FY12                   44.4                55.0         -19.4
P/BV (x)          FY12E       2.7      1.0         1.6          FY13                   49.9                60.0         -16.8
                  FY13E       2.2      0.9         1.4
EV/Sales (x)      FY12E       3.6      1.1         0.7      Target price and recommendation
                  FY13E       3.4      1.2         0.6          Current               Target             Upside         Reco.
EV/EBITDA (x)     FY12E       9.1      8.3         6.3          Price (INR)         Price (INR)            (%)
                  FY13E       8.5      8.0         5.3            518                   636               22.7           Buy

                                                            Stock performance (1 year)

                                                                          Ji nda l Steel & Power          Sens ex - Reba s ed
                                                             800
Shareholding pattern (%)                                     675
                           Dec-11    Sep-11      Dec-10
                                                             550
Promoter                     58.6      58.6         58.4
                                                             425
Domestic Inst                 7.8       7.5          2.3
                                                             300
Foreign                      22.3      22.9         24.9
                                                                 Jan-11         Apr-11        Jul -11       Oct-11        Ja n-12
Others                       11.3      11.1         14.4

20 January 2012                                                                                                                     7
                           Jindal Steel & Power



Financials and Valuation




20 January 2012                              8
                              Jindal Steel & Power



                  N O T E S




20 January 2012                                 9
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        Disclosure of Interest Statement                                                             Jindal Steel & Power
        1. Analyst ownership of the stock                                                                     No
        2. Group/Directors ownership of the stock                                                             No
        3. Broking relationship with company covered                                                          No
        4. Investment Banking relationship with company covered                                               No


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