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HUL RELIANCESEC FEB 12

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					                                                                                                                                                                                                             3QFY2012 Result Update

                                                                                                                                                                                                      Hindustan Unilever | FMCG
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Hindustan Unilever
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          February 8, 2012




NEUTRAL                                                                                                                                              Excellent ‘Surf’ing in S&D category
CMP*                                                                                                                      Rs382
                                                                                                                                                     Key highlights of the result

Target Price                                                                                                                                  -
                                                                                                                                                        Top-line registers 16.4% yoy growth aided by ~9% volume growth: HUL
                                                                                                                                                         delivered strong top-line growth of 16.4% yoy, primarily driven by ~9% volume
Stock Info                                                                                                                                               growth. All segments registered double digit growth with Home and Personal
Sector                                                                                                                    FMCG                           care business (HPC), Foods business and exports registering strong yoy growth
                                                                                                                                                         of 17.8%, 12% and 16% respectively. The Soaps and Detergent category (S&D)
Market Cap (Rs cr)                                                                                                        83,374
                                                                                                                                                         registered strong ~21% yoy growth, on the back of new product launches/
52 Week High/Low                                                                                                         420/264                         re-launches. The company re-launched Rin, Surf Excel Quickwash, Lux
Avg. Daily Volume (3m, ‘000)                                                                                                 2,633
                                                                                                                                                         handwash and shower gels. Personal products category registered growth of
                                                                                                                                                         14% yoy, aided by launch of Clinic Plus conditioner and re-launch of Pepsodent
Avg. Daily Value (3m, cr)                                                                                                    103.5                       G. Beverages grew well at 11.3% yoy, with Bru maintaining its premium
Dividend Yield (%)                                                                                                                  1.7                  positioning, while, Packaged foods business grew 13.5% yoy aided by re-launch
                                                                                                                                                         of Kissan portfolio in September, 2011.
Sensex                                                                                                                    17,622

Nifty                                                                                                                        5,335
                                                                                                                                                        Gross margins continue to haunt HUL, however, cost efficiencies boost OPM:
                                                                                                                                                         HUL displayed resilience in terms of operating margins, despite facing severe
BSE Code                                                                                                                 500696                          raw material inflation pressure, resulting in gross margin contraction of 143bp
NSE Code                                                                                            HINDUNILVR                                           yoy (company has taken further price hikes this month in the S&D category
                                                                                                                                                         increasing prices of Rin, Hamam, Pears and few variants of Lux). Savings in
Stock Performance
                                                                                                                                                         advertising expense (down 299bp yoy to 11.8% of sales) and other expenses
(%)                                                                                         HUL                           NIFTY                          (down 124bp yoy to 15.9% of sales) coupled with strong top-line performance
1-week                                                                                             0.8                              2.6                  (pricing actions taken across portfolio) aided OPM, which expanded 271bp yoy
                                                                                                                                                         to 15.1% (12.4%).
1-month                                                                                     (3.4)                                  12.4
                                                                                                                                                        Flat depreciation cost and OPM expansion aids earnings: Recurring earnings
1-year                                                                                       39.3                                  (1.1)                 reported a robust growth of 33.7% yoy, primarily supported by flattish
Shareholding Pattern (%)                                                                                                                                 depreciation expense (up 0.9% yoy) and higher OPM, restricted by 7.2% yoy
                                                                                                                                                         decline in the other income to Rs165cr. The company reported exceptional loss
                                                                                        19.0%                                                            of Rs12.4cr on account of restructuring cost.
                                                                                                                                                     Outlook and Valuation
                 52.5%                                                                                       14.1%                                   Sustainable volume growth and steady performance of Personal products and Foods
                                                                                                                                                     business renders our confidence on the company’s growth prospects. Moreover,
                                                                                              14.4%                                                  improved S&D segment’s margin performance supported by rationalized ad-spends
                                    Promoter              FII            DII            Others
                                                                                                                                                     (the price war with P&G seems to be over), is a tailwind for the stock performance
                                                                                                                                                     going ahead. Hence, post the results, while we have largely maintained our revenue
Stock Price Chart                                                                                                                                    estimates, we have upgraded our margins and earnings estimates. For FY2011-13E,
  430
                                                                                                                                                     we expect HUL to report a CAGR of ~17% in its top-line driven by ~13% CAGR in
  410                                                                                                                                                Foods business and 19% CAGR in HPC business, aided by product innovations and
  390
  370                                                                                                                                                higher volumes. In terms of recurring earnings, we peg a CAGR of 24.8% over
  350
  330
                                                                                                                                                     FY2011-13E. At the CMP, the stock price captures the positives of the result. Hence,
  310                                                                                                                                                we maintain our Neutral view on the stock with a revised fair value of Rs388 (Rs363
  290
  270
                                                                                                                                                     earlier) based on 25xFY2013E EPS of Rs15.5.
  250
                                                                                                                                                     Risks to the view
        Feb-11

                 Mar-11

                          Apr-11




                                                     Jul-11




                                                                                          Oct-11




                                                                                                                                     Feb-12
                                   May-11

                                            Jun-11




                                                                Aug-11

                                                                               Sep-11




                                                                                                    Nov-11

                                                                                                                Dec-11

                                                                                                                          Jan-12




                                                                                                                                                        Lower than anticipated volume growth on account of price wars will impact our
Note: *CMP as on February 7, 2012
                                                                                                                                                         estimates

Analyst: Chitrangda Kapur
                                                                                                                                                        Slowdown in the economy and high inflationary environment will impact our
                                                                                                                                                         estimates
                 chitrangda.kapur@relianceada.com


Year End                            Net Revenues                                                                         EBITDA                          Net income (reported)   RoaE      RoCE       EPS              Valuations (X)
                           (Rs cr)                      % growth                                    (Rs cr)                         % margin              (Rs cr)    % growth      %         %        (Rs)       P/E         EV/EBITDA
FY2010                     17,524                             (13.4)                                  2,548                                   14.5        2,202        (11.8)     90.5     101.3       9.7       37.9            31.5
FY2011                     19,401                               10.7                                  2,365                                   12.2        2,306         4.7       82.5      88.5      10.0       35.8            34.0
FY2012E                    22,784                               17.4                                  3,075                                   13.5        2,745        19.0       83.2      81.1      12.2       30.1            25.9
FY2013E                    26,642                               16.9                                  3,916                                   14.7        3,354        22.2       73.5      70.8      15.5       24.6            20.0
                                                                                                            Hindustan Unilever | FMCG




                                          Exhibit 1: Quarterly Performance
                                          Y/E March (Rs cr)    3QFY12     3QFY11    % yoy     2QFY12    % qoq    9MFY12     9MFY11     % yoy
                                          Net Sales            5,852.7    5,027.0     16.4    5,522.2     6.0    16,878.8   14,501.8    16.4
                                          Consumption of
                                                               3,075.1    2,569.2     19.7    3,001.0     2.5     9,150.3    7,398.8    23.7
                                          RM
                                          (% of Sales)            52.5       51.1                54.3                54.2       51.0
                                          Staff Costs            274.1      231.0     18.6      287.3    (4.6)     847.7      726.7     16.7
                                          (% of Sales)             4.7        4.6                 5.2                 5.0        5.0
                                          Advertising            690.2      743.3     (7.1)     651.4     6.0     1,974.5    2,141.0    (7.8)
                                          (% of Sales)            11.8       14.8                11.8                11.7       14.8
                                          Other Expenses         927.8      859.3      8.0      844.1     9.9     2,603.6    2,449.4     6.3
                                          (% of Sales)            15.9       17.1                15.3                15.4       16.9
                                          Total Expenditure    4,967.1    4,402.7     12.8    4,783.8     3.8    14,576.0   12,715.8    14.6
                                          Operating Profit      885.6      624.3      41.9     738.4     19.9     2,302.8    1,786.0    28.9
                                          OPM (%)                 15.1       12.4                13.4                13.6       12.3
                                          Depre. &
                                                                  56.8       56.3      0.9       57.1    (0.5)     170.1      165.2      3.0
                                          Amortisation
                                          EBIT                  828.8      567.9      45.9     681.3     21.7     2,132.6    1,620.8    31.6
                                          Interest                 0.5        0.1    650.0        0.5                 1.0        0.2   381.0
                                          Other Income           165.0      177.7     (7.2)     166.0    (0.6)     457.0      462.8     (1.2)
                                          PBT                   993.3      745.6      33.2     846.7     17.3     2,588.7    2,083.4    24.3
                                          Provision for
                                                                 227.1      172.4     31.7      202.2    12.3      609.6      469.8     29.8
                                          Taxation
                                          (% of PBT)              22.9       23.1                23.9                23.5       22.5
                                          PAT (recurring)       766.2      573.2      33.7     644.5     18.9     1,979.1    1,613.6    22.7
                                          PATM                    13.1       11.4                11.7                11.7       11.1
                                          Extr Income/(Exp.)    (12.4)       64.3                44.4                90.8     123.2
                                          Reported PAT          753.8      637.5      18.2     688.9      9.4     2,069.9    1,736.8    19.2
                                          FDEPS (Rs)               3.5        3.0     18.2        3.2     9.4         9.6        8.0    19.2
                                         Source: Company, RSec Research


                                         Top-line grows strong, aided by double digit growth across segments

Consolidated top-line growth was due     HUL delivered strong top-line growth of 16.4% yoy, primarily driven by ~9% volume growth
to strong volume growth as well as       and absorption of price hikes taken in earlier quarters. The company’s two main business
price led (as per expectation)           segments viz. HPC and Foods business delivered double digit growth of 17.8% yoy and
                                         ~12% yoy respectively. Soaps and Detergent segment was the main revenue driver for HPC
                                         growing at 20.7% yoy, aided by re-launch of flagship brands i.e. Rin, Surf Excel Quickwash,
                                         Lux and Lifebuoy. The Personal products category grew by 14% yoy, aided by product
Product innovation, brand re-launches    innovation and new product launch/re-launches. Fair & Lovely, Vaseline and Pond’s
and new brand launches, coupled with     recorded double digit growth. During the quarter Dove body lotion was launched and Lakme
products in mini packaging, spurred      portfolio was expanded with the introduction of Lakme Absolute.
volume growth for the company and will
benefit HUL in the ensuing quarters      Foods business primarily consisting of Beverages and Packaged foods was driven by 11.3%
                                         yoy growth in Beverages and 13.5% yoy growth in the Packaged foods business. Taj Mahal
                                         registered strong growth in modern trade, while coffee maintained its premium positioning.
                                         The company launched Bru Gold, a new variant of coffee in 3QFY2012.
                                                                                                                                                       Hindustan Unilever | FMCG




New   launches include Clinic Plus       Exhibit 2: Segmental Performance
conditioner, Dove body lotion, Lakme     Y/E March (Rs cr)                3QFY12            3QFY11                % yoy                 2QFY12       % qoq      9MFY12                     9MFY11      % yoy

Absolute and Bru Gold                    Soaps & Detergents                2,646                2,193                   20.7             2,593            2.1             7,794              6,587      18.3
                                         Personal Products                 1,886                1,655                   14.0             1,613         17.0               5,130              4,385      17.0
                                         Beverages                           670                      602               11.3               653            2.6             1,932              1,710      13.0
                                         Packaged foods                      306                      270               13.5               332         (7.7)              1,010               860       17.5
                                         Exports                             338                      291               16.0               291         16.0                935                820       13.9
                                         Others                                98                     111          (11.6)                  116        (15.4)               321                376      (14.7)
                                         Less: Inter seg. rev.                        -                  -                                      -                             -                    -
                                         Gross Income                      5,945                5,122                   16.1             5,597            6.2      17,121                   14,739      16.2
                                         Soaps & Detergents                  356                      169              110.2               321         10.8                913                668       36.7
                                         Personal Products                   488                      477                2.4               394         23.9               1,295              1,130      14.7
                                         Beverages                           105                      101                3.7                88         19.9                268                258        3.8
                                         Packaged Foods                     (6.0)              (16.6)              (64.1)                 16.5       (136.2)                28                 25       12.7
                                         Exports                               45                      23               96.7                24         85.8                 92                 64       43.6
                                         Others                              (10)                     (18)                                  (8)                            (21)               (63)
                                         Total PBIT                          978                      735               33.0               836         17.0               2,576              2,082      23.8
                                         Less: Interest Exp                   (0)                      (0)                                  (1)                             (1)                (0)
                                         Less: Other Exp.                         4                    75                                   56                             104                125

Management has indicated increased       PBT                                 981                      810               21.1               891         10.1               2,679              2,207      21.4
spends in the Personal products          PBIT Margin (%)
portfolio as new launches are in the     Soaps & Detergents                 13.5                       7.7                                12.4                             11.7               10.1
pipe-line (recently launched Sunsilk     Personal Products                  25.9                      28.8                                24.4                             25.3               25.8
Keratinology, a premium hair care
                                         Beverages                          15.7                      16.8                                13.4                             13.9               15.1
product), while ad-spends for the S&D
                                         Packaged Foods                     (1.9)                 (6.2)                                    5.0                              2.8                2.9
category will be calibrated (as price
wars with P&G seems to be over)          Exports                            13.2                       7.8                                 8.3                              9.9                7.8
                                         Others                            (10.5)              (16.6)                                     (6.7)                           (6.4)             (16.8)
                                          Source: Company, RSec Research



                                         Exhibit 3: Consistent volume growth aids HUL to register strong top-line growth
                                                      7,000                                                                                                                                    20.0
                                                                                                                                                                              5,853
                                                      6,000                                                                                           5,504     5,522
                                                                                            4,794                          5,027           4,899
                                                              4,504                                          4,681                                                                             15.0
                                                      5,000                 4,316
                                            (Rs cr)




                                                      4,000
.                                                                                                                                                                                              10.0       (%)
                                                      3,000
                                                      2,000                                                                                                                                    5.0
                                                      1,000
                                                         -                                                                                                                                     -
                                                                 3QFY10


                                                                             4QFY10


                                                                                             1QFY11


                                                                                                              2QFY11


                                                                                                                               3QFY11


                                                                                                                                            4QFY11


                                                                                                                                                       1QFY12


                                                                                                                                                                 2QFY12


                                                                                                                                                                                  3QFY12




                                                                                          Top-line (LHS)                                      yoy growth (RHS)

                                        Source: Company, RSec Research
                                                                                                                                                                Hindustan Unilever | FMCG




HUL’s consistent effort in terms of       Exhibit 4: Volume growth trend (yoy)
gaining volumes has started to pay rich
dividends                                            16.0
                                                                                                                    14.0
                                                     14.0                                                                              13.0

                                                     12.0                  11.0                   11.0                                                 11.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                  9.8
                                                     10.0                                                                                                                                                         9.0
                                                                                                                                                                         8.3




                                          (%)
                                                      8.0
                                                      6.0    5.0

                                                      4.0
                                                      2.0
                                                       -



                                                              3QFY10



                                                                                4QFY10



                                                                                                  1QFY11



                                                                                                                     2QFY11



                                                                                                                                        3QFY11



                                                                                                                                                         4QFY11



                                                                                                                                                                             1QFY12



                                                                                                                                                                                                  2QFY12



                                                                                                                                                                                                                   3QFY12
                                          Source: Company, RSec Research



                                          Exhibit 5: OPM expands despite high gross margin pressure

                                                     60.0   50.9           48.6                   49.0              49.1               48.9                                                                    47.5
                                                                                                                                                      45.7          44.1                  45.7
                                                     50.0

                                                     40.0
                                          (%)




                                                     30.0
                                                            16.0                                                                                                                                               15.1
                                                     20.0                  12.3                   12.5              12.0               12.4           11.8          12.3                  13.4

                                                     10.0

                                                       -
                                                              3QFY10



                                                                                4QFY10



                                                                                                  1QFY11



                                                                                                                    2QFY11



                                                                                                                                       3QFY11



                                                                                                                                                       4QFY11



                                                                                                                                                                      1QFY12



                                                                                                                                                                                               2QFY12



                                                                                                                                                                                                               3QFY12
                                                                                                           OPM                         Gross margin

                                          Source: Company, RSec Research



                                          Exhibit 6: One of the strongest quarters for HUL, records ~34% yoy growth in PAT

                                                     810                                                                                                                              766                  30.0
                                                     710                                                                                                           645
                                                            605                                                               573                                                                          20.0
                                                                                                                                                      568
                                                     610                                 515               526
                                                                                                                                          486                                                              10.0
                                                     510
                                           (Rs cr)




                                                                       386
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        ( %)




                                                     410                                                                                                                                                   -
                                                     310
                                                                                                                                                                                                           (10.0)
                                                     210
                                                                                                                                                                                                           (20.0)
                                                     110
                                                      10                                                                                                                                                   (30.0)
                                                            3QFY10


                                                                       4QFY10


                                                                                         1QFY11


                                                                                                           2QFY11


                                                                                                                              3QFY11


                                                                                                                                           4QFY11


                                                                                                                                                       1QFY12


                                                                                                                                                                    2QFY12


                                                                                                                                                                                      3QFY12




                                                                       Recurring PAT (LHS)                                                       yoy growth (RHS)

                                          Source: Company, RSec Research
                                                                                                                          Hindustan Unilever | FMCG



Profit & Loss Statement                                                             Balance Sheet
Y/E March (Rs cr)              FY2010      FY2011        FY2012E        FY2013E     Y/E March (Rs cr)           FY2010        FY2011    FY2012E    FY2013E
Gross sales                    18,220      20,306         23,857         27,956     SOURCES OF FUNDS
Less: Excise duty                 696         904          1,074           1,314    Equity Share Capital            218          216        216        216
Net Sales                      17,524      19,401         22,784         26,642     Preference Capital                    -         -          -          -
Total operating income         17,524      19,401         22,784         26,642     Reserves& Surplus             2,365        2,418       3,507     5,192
% chg                           (13.4)       10.7           17.4            16.9    Shareholders Funds            2,584        2,634       3,723     5,408
Total Expenditure              14,975      17,036         19,709         22,726     Minority Interest                     -         -          -          -
EBITDA                          2,548       2,365          3,075           3,916    Total Loans                       0            0           0         0
% chg                            (4.1)       (7.2)          30.0            27.3    Deferred Tax Liability        (249)         (210)      (210)      (210)
(% of Net Sales)                 14.5        12.2           13.5            14.7    Total Liabilities             2,335        2,424       3,513     5,198
Depre. & Amortization             184         221            228            235     APPLICATION OF FUNDS
EBIT                            2,364       2,144          2,847           3,681    Gross Block                   3,582        3,760       4,557     5,224
(% of Net Sales)                 13.5        11.1           12.5            13.8    Less: Acc. Depreciation       1,420        1,590       1,818     2,053
Interest                            7           0              2               1    Net Block                     2,162        2,169       2,738     3,171
Other Income                      350         586            634            733     Capital Work-in-Progress        274          299        228        261
Share in profit of Asso.             -           -              -              -    Goodwill                              -         -          -          -
PBT (reported)                  2,707       2,730          3,480           4,413    Investments                   1,264        1,261       1,761     2,261
Tax                               604         577            835           1,059    Current Assets                5,368        6,095       7,128     8,728
Tax rate (%)                     22.3        21.1           24.0            24.0      Cash                        1,892        1,640       1,891     2,645
PAT (recurring)                 2,103       2,153          2,645           3,354      Loans & Advances              617          701        843        999
Ext. Exp./ (Income)               (99)      (153)           (100)              -      Other                       2,858        3,754       4,394     5,084
Minority interest (MI)               -           -              -              -    Current liabilities           6,733        7,400       8,342     9,223
PAT (reported)                  2,202       2,306          2,745           3,354    Net Current Assets           (1,365)      (1,305)    (1,214)      (494)
% chg                           (11.9)        4.7           19.0            22.2    Total Assets                  2,335        2,424       3,513     5,198
(% of Net Sales)                 12.6        11.9           12.0            12.6
Basic EPS (Rs)                    9.6        10.0           12.2            15.5
Fully Diluted EPS (Rs)            9.7        10.0           12.2            15.5
% chg                           (15.9)        2.4           22.8            26.8




Cash Flow Statement                                                                  Key Ratios
Y/E March (Rs cr)               FY2010      FY2011        FY2012E       FY2013E      Y/E March                  FY2010        FY2011    FY2012E    FY2013E

Profit before tax                 2,707       2,730          3,480         4,413     Valuation Ratio (x)

Depreciation                        184         221            228           235     P/E (on FDEPS)               37.9          35.8       30.1        24.6
Change in Working Capital         1,391        (223)           157            34     P/CEPS                       36.1          34.8       28.7        23.0
Interest / Dividend (Net)         (122)        (192)          (233)        (261)     P/BV                         32.0          31.4       22.2        15.3
Direct taxes paid                   604         577            835         1,059     Dividend yield (%)             1.7          1.7        1.7         1.7
Others                              (84)       (305)           103             0     EV/Sales                       4.6          4.1        3.5         2.9
Cash Flow from Operations         3,473       1,655          2,900         3,363     EV/EBITDA                    31.5          34.0       25.9        20.0
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets      (502)        (299)          (726)        (701)     EV / Total Assets            34.4          33.2       22.7        15.1
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments       (931)         (85)          (500)        (500)     Per Share Data (Rs)
Cash Flow from Investing         (1,434)       (384)        (1,226)       (1,201)    EPS (Basic)                    9.6         10.0       12.2        15.5
Issue of Equity                      32         (73)           0.15             -    EPS (fully diluted)            9.7         10.0       12.2        15.5
Inc./(Dec.) in loans              (422)              -              -           -    Cash EPS                     10.6          11.0       13.3        16.6
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)         1,656       1,642          1,656         1,669     DPS                            6.5          6.5        6.6         6.6
Interest / Dividend (Net)         (122)        (192)          (233)        (261)     Book Value                   12.0          12.2       17.2        25.0
Cash Flow from Financing         (1,924)     (1,523)        (1,423)       (1,408)    Returns (%)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash                 115        (252)           251           754     RoCE                        101.3          88.5       81.1        70.8
Opening Cash balances             1,777       1,892          1,640         1,891     RoE                          90.5          82.5       83.2        73.5
Closing Cash balances             1,892       1,640          1,891         2,645     Turnover ratios (x)
                                                                                     Asset Turnover                 4.9          5.2        5.0         5.1
                                                                                     Inventory / Sales (days)       45            53         52          51
                                                                                     Receivables (days)             14            18         18          18
                                                                                     Payables (days)               110           114        113        108
                                                                                     WCC (days)                    (68)          (55)       (50)       (43)
                                                                                                                                                          Hindustan Unilever | FMCG




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or returns. The value securities referred to herein may be adversely affected by the performance or otherwise of the respective issuer companies, changes in the market conditions, micro
and macro factors and forces affecting capital markets like interest rate risk, credit risk, liquidity risk and reinvestment risk. Derivative products may also be affected by various risks including
but not limited to counter party risk, market risk, valuation risk, liquidity risk and other risks. Besides the price of the underlying asset, volatility, tenor and interest rates may affect the pricing
of derivatives.


Disclaimers in respect of jurisdiction: The possession, circulation and/or distribution of this Report may be restricted or regulated in certain jurisdictions by appropriate laws. No action has
been or will be taken by RSL in any jurisdiction (other than India), where any action for such purpose(s) is required. Accordingly, this Report shall not be possessed, circulated and/or
distributed in any such country or jurisdiction unless such action is in compliance with all applicable laws and regulations of such country or jurisdiction. RSL requires such recipient to inform
himself about and to observe any restrictions at his own expense, without any liability to RSL. Any dispute arising out of this Report shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the Courts
in India.


Disclosure of Interest: The research analysts who have prepared this Report hereby certify that the views /opinions expressed in this Report are their personal independent views/opinions in
respect of the securities and their respective issuers. Neither RSL nor the research analysts did have any known direct /indirect conflict of interest including any long/short position(s) in any
specific security on which views/opinions have been made, during the preparation of this Report.


Copyright: The copyright in this Report belongs exclusively to RSL. This Report shall only be read by those persons to whom it has been delivered. No reprinting, reproduction, copying,
distribution of this Report in any manner whatsoever, in whole or in part, is permitted without the prior express written consent of RSL.


Important These disclaimers, risks and other disclosures must be read in conjunction with the information / opinions / views of which they form part of.


Reliance Securities Limited is a Stock Broker with Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (SEBI Registration Nos. INB011234839, INF011234839 and INE011234839); with National Stock
Exchange of India Limited (SEBI Registration Nos. INB231234833, INF231234833, and INF231234833); and with MCX Stock Exchange Limited (SEBI Registration No. INE261234833)

				
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