Diwali Picks - Religare by icestar


									Oct 25, 2011
Top 10 – Investment Picks
     The recent turmoil seen in the stock market form the past few weeks, that S&P downgraded the US rating. Foreign
      institutional investors (FIIs) have pressed heavy sales amid the ongoing credit crisis in the euro zone. The sustained selling
      by foreign funds is a cause of concern for India Inc. Foreign portfolio inflow acts as a catalyst to private corporate capital
      expenditure in India. Meanwhile, Indian firms relying on European and US markets are worried about a likely economic
      slowdown in the US and Europe.

     However, looking to the attractive valuations we feel that it is a good time to enter with investment horizon of more than one
      year. There is an old saying that buy when no one is willing to buy and sell when everyone wants to buy. This is the stage
      when people are afraid to buy and that is when historically it has been seen that a long term investor gets maximum return.

     We think equities will oscillate back-and-forth between fears of growth sustainability and the threat of a US recession and/or
      a European debt contagion in the coming months. There will be no benefit of the doubt despite the tailwind of attractive
      valuations and solid corporate earnings.

We are suggesting a portfolio of 10 stocks having a strong and sustainable growth potential in the years to come -

1)   Petronet LNG Ltd.

2)   Sintex Industries

3)   IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd.

4)   Gujarat Gas Company

5)   Bajaj Electricals

6)   ACC

7)   Bajaj Auto

8)   Infosys Tech

9)   ITC

10) PNB
      Petronet LNG Ltd.                                                                                            Industry : Gas Distribution

      Investment Rationale                                                                                CMP (` ) : 161.25
        • Petronet LNG Limited (PLL) is the country's biggest liquefied natural gas (LNG) importer.       BSE Code : 532522
          The company has been promoted by four PSUs - GAIL, ONGC, IOC and BPCL each with
          an equity stake of 12.5%. The company bears no marketing risk due to back-to-back sales         NSE Code : PETRONET
          agreements with its promoter group.

        • Petronet LNG is turning into a marketer of natural gas from being just an importer and
                                                                                                           Key Data
          regassifier of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The company targets to double its liquefied
          natural gas (LNG) business in next five years by expanding existing infrastructure and         Market Cap (` Cr.)                       12187
          adding new capacities.                                                                         Equity Cap (` Cr.)                         750

        • The company plans to sell gas using cryogenic trucks directly to consumers in regions not      Face Value                                   10
          connected by pipelines of GAIL India, to boost profitability.                                  Book Value                               39.16
                                                                                                         EPS                                       10.2
        • The company is currently undertaking three projects – Kochi terminal and its expansion,
          setting up a new jetty at Dahej and 1200 MW power plant. Its regassification charges are       Dividend Yield (%)                        1.23
          revised 5% up every year. So, with higher charges, increasing volumes and expansion            P/BV (x)                                  4.55
          plans, PLL is on the strong growth path.
                                                                                                         P/E (x)                                  13.63
        Risk & Concern                                                                                   52 Week High-Low            185.80 / 105.10
        • Delay in timely completion of the projects will significantly increase the costs.

Financial Summary                                                                                          Shareholding Pattern (%)
    (` Crore)            FY08             FY09             FY10               FY11            CAGR (%)
                                                                                                                     Public &
    Net Sales           6555.31          8428.7          10649.09           13197.29           26.27                 Others,
                                                                                                                      14.79            Foreign,
     EBITDA             919.71           977.77           944.29             1284.29           11.77
     Interest           102.36           101.21           183.93             193.13              -                                                Institutions,
  Depreciation          102.18           102.52           160.86             184.68              -                  Promoters,
       PAT              474.65           518.44            404.5             619.62             9.29
Source : Capitaline
      Sintex Industries Ltd.                                                                                                   Industry : Plastics

      Investment Rationale                                                                                   CMP (` ) : 109.8

        • Sintex Industries Ltd is one of the leading providers of plastics and niche textile-related        BSE Code : 502742
          products in the country. The company benefits from government spending in three areas:             NSE Code : SINTEX
          education, health and public housing. The company is focusing heavily on its plastic
          business for further growth.
                                                                                                              Key Data
        • Sintex executes mass housing projects for Indian Railway , university hostel blocks, hospitals
          and defense. Further, monolithic housing also offers huge opportunities for offtake of related    Market Cap (` Cr.)                                  3075
          products manufactured by Sintex .
                                                                                                            Equity Cap (` Cr.)                                 27.30
        • The company is expanding its prefabricated building systems to cover further north and            Face Value                                               1
          northeastern regions in FY12. This will give it a strategic presence in these markets with
          potential long-term growth.                                                                       Book Value                                         84.58
                                                                                                            EPS                                                16.23
        • Sintex’s customized moldings business caters to Fortune 500 customers across continents
                                                                                                            Dividend Yield (%)                                   0.58
           and various sectors. It intends to leverage these customers and potentially enhance domestic
           manufacturing and outsourcing. This will significantly improve margin in the business over       P/BV (x)                                             1.28
           the next couple of years.                                                                        P/E (x)                                              6.94
        Risk & Concern
                                                                                                            52 Week High-Low                        237 / 102.75
        The prices of its raw materials closely follow the crude oil. Rise in crude prices could increase
        the margin pressure.

Financial Summary (Cons.)                                                                                     Shareholding Pattern (%)
    (` Crore)            FY08            FY09             FY10              FY11            CAGR (%)                       Public &
    Net Sales          2357.04          3063.88          3281.64           4475.15             23.83                        10.75
     EBITDA             442.77           606.33           619.1             869.12             25.21
     Interest            64.32           81.95            73.08             108.92                -               Promoters,
  Depreciation           76.51           114.4           144.45             149.1                 -
       PAT              230.32           325.12            329              460.01             25.93
                                                                                                                                      Corporate          5.84
Source : Capitaline                                                                                                                    Holding,
      IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd.                                                                           Industry : Construction

      Investment Rationale                                                                               CMP (` ) : 159.90

        • IRB Infrastructure Developers is one of the leading infrastructure development Company         BSE Code : 532947
          (acting through various SPVs/ subsidiaries) in the country with extensive experience in        NSE Code : IRB
          roads and highways. The company has now a portfolio of about 7000 lane kms of highway
          across 17 country wide projects. Of these, 10 are already operational, 6 are under
          implementation and one is under financial closure.                                              Key Data
        • IRB Infrastructure's order book now stands at Rs 11700 crore, including Rs 9700 crores        Market Cap (` Cr.)                           5234.67
          worth of EPC order book that will be executed over a period of 3-4 years.
                                                                                                        Equity Cap (` Cr.)                             332.36
        • The strong uptick in execution of various projects should result in 15% to 20% jump in the    Face Value                                             10
          topline of the company for FY 2011-12. Further the company's tolling revenue is also likely
          to cross 1000 crores for FY 2011-12.                                                          EPS                                              14.11
                                                                                                        Book Value                                       73.19
        Risk & Concerns
                                                                                                        P/E (x)                                          11.16
        • The toll model is normally considered risky, although the revenue potential is high if the    P/BV (x)                                            2.15
          project attracts high traffic.                                                                Dividend Yield (%)                                  0.95
        • IRB and its subsidiaries carry high levels of debt. While repayment from the offer proceeds
          would reduce the debt, newer projects could require further raising of funds.                 52 Week High-Low                         271 / 131.75

Financial Summary – (Cons.)                                                                               Shareholding Pattern (%)
    (` Crore)              FY09                  FY10                 FY11              CAGR (%)                                      Foreign,
    Net Sales              991.88               1704.85              2438.11              56.78                          Public &                   Institutions,
                                                                                                                        Others, 4.9                     3.98
     EBITDA                466.99                847.96               1158.4              57.50                                                              Corporate
     Interest              137.66                249.39               357.21                 -                                                                  2.67

  Depreciation             114.38                181.91               225.36                 -
       PAT                 175.85                385.41               452.38              60.39                       74.8

Source : Capitaline
      Gujarat Gas Company Ltd.                                                                                    Industry : Gas Distribution

      Investment Rationale                                                                               CMP (` ) : 422.90

        • Gujarat Gas Company is India’s largest private gas distribution company. The company           BSE Code : 523477
          has outlined its strategy for moving up the value chain through three key areas: the           NSE Code : GUJRATGAS
          industrial-retail market, developing the CNG market, and developing newer applications to
          ensure better margin.
                                                                                                          Key Data
        • Piped natural gas (PNG) is another growth area for the company. GGCL supplies PNG to
          2,00,000 domestic households and is rapidly increasing its user base. The company             Market Cap (` Cr.)                                5412
          expects RLNG (regasified liquid natural gas) to play a crucial role in domestic gas market.
                                                                                                        Equity Cap (` Cr.)                               25.65
        Risk & Concerns                                                                                 Face Value                                              2

        • Expansion plans to other areas in Gujarat such as Bhavnagar and Kutch, if the company's       Book Value                                       63.69
          succeeds in future bids, is also contingent on timely regulatory approvals.                   EPS                                              20.97
                                                                                                        Dividend Yield (%)                                 2.84
        • Hike in the price of LNG may impact margins, if the company is not able to pass on high
          costs to customers.                                                                           P/BV (x)                                           6.44
                                                                                                        P/E (x)                                          17.63
                                                                                                        52 Week High-Low                         485 / 306.65

Financial Summary                                                                                         Shareholding Pattern (%)
    (` Crore)           CY07            CY08            CY09              CY10           CAGR (%)                                     Foreign,
                                                                                                                         Public &
    Net Sales          1194.35         1273.94         1386.9           1813.64             14.94                       Others, 9.6                Institutions,
     EBITDA            272.88           271.2          303.55            434.64             17.03                                                          Corporate
     Interest            0.19           0.11             0.14             0.46                -                                                               1.62

  Depreciation          37.08           40.44           46.06             53.07               -                      Promoters,
       PAT             159.09          158.81          175.12            258.73             17.60

Source : Capitaline
      Bajaj Electricals Ltd.                                                                                     Industry : Domestic Appliances

      Investment Rationale                                                                                  CMP (` ) : 195.95

                                                                                                            BSE Code : 500031
        • Bajaj Electricals Ltd, a diversified player with presence in lighting, consumer durables, and
          engineering & project. The company derives 70% of its revenues from consumer businesses           NSE Code : BAJAJELEC
          — lighting and kitchen appliances. It enjoys a leadership position in the northern and eastern
          regions in appliances such as fans, compact fluorescent bulbs and mixer-grinders.
                                                                                                             Key Data
        • The company's consumer appliances business has been growing at a compounded rate of
          30% annually over the last five years, driven by consumers upgrading to branded products in      Market Cap (` Cr.)                             1934
          electric fans and mixer-grinders.
                                                                                                           Equity Cap (` Cr.)                            19.92
        • Rural electrification projects offer immense scope for growth for the E&P business. However,
                                                                                                           Face Value                                            2
          the muted numbers form its E&P segment in the first quarter we expect that the E&P division
          would be the major growth driver and boost the company's overall turnover and bottomline in      Book Value                                      60.5
          the second half of this fiscal.
                                                                                                           Dividend Yield (%)                              1.43
        • The recent correction in copper and aluminium prices and efforts to control working capital      EPS                                           13.63
          and inventory may help the company contain margin pressures in this business.
                                                                                                           P/BV (x)                                        3.21
        Risk & Concern                                                                                     P/E (x)                                       14.25
        • Change in copper and aluminium prices could significantly affect the margins.
                                                                                                           52 Week High-Low                     333.50 / 160.10

Financial Summary                                                                                            Shareholding Pattern (%)
                                                                                                                                      Foreign, 7.05
    (` Crore)            FY08            FY09            FY10              FY11            CAGR (%)
                                                                                                                        Public &
    Net Sales          1374.48         1765.71          2227.16           2739.43            25.85                    Others, 13.58
     EBITDA             148.2           185.32          240.74             258.4             20.36
     Interest           29.34           36.97            31.47             29.08                -                                                           Corporate
                                                                                                                                                           Holding, 3.65
  Depreciation           7.45            8.55             9.2              10.76                -
       PAT               73.1           89.13           117.09            143.79             25.30                       Promoters,

Source : Capitaline
      ACC                                                                                                                     Industry : Cement

      Investment Rationale                                                                                     CMP (` ) : 1190.95

                                                                                                               BSE Code : 500410
        • Cement sales is likely to improve with the monsoon close to an end. The demand in the rural
          areas is set to improve as good monsoon will better farmers' earnings. Awarding of road              NSE Code : ACC
          projects and construction activity of metros will boost cement demand.

        • Cement companies recently hiked prices on an average by Rs 4-5 for a 50 kg bag with the
                                                                                                                Key Data
          central and northern region seeing the highest rise of Rs 12 a bag and Rs 9 a bag.
                                                                                                              Market Cap (` Cr.)                          21296
        • The sharp increase in cement prices was attributed to demand from large dealers who were
                                                                                                              Equity Cap (` Cr.)                         187.74
          stocking up in anticipation of pickup in demand during the festive season.
                                                                                                              Face Value                                        10
        Risk & Concerns
                                                                                                              Book Value                                 334.53
        • Earnings likely to remain under pressure as the company may not be able to pass on the              Dividend Yield (%)                             2.69
          entire rise in operational cost till there is a substantial evidence of revival of infrastructure
          projects.                                                                                           EPS                                          53.98
                                                                                                              P/BV (x)                                       3.23
        • Delay in awarding the road projects and infrastructure activity could reduce the profitability.
                                                                                                              P/E (x)                                      20.41
                                                                                                              52 Week High-Low                1147.15/ 917.60

Financial Summary                                                                                               Shareholding Pattern (%)
    (` Crore)            CY07             CY08             CY09              CY10            CAGR (%)
                                                                                                                              Public &                    Govt.
    Net Sales          6990.68          7282.87           8027.2            7717.33             3.35                        Others, 14.28              Holding, 0.15
     EBITDA            2309.23          2070.73          2720.78            1910.91             -6.12
     Interest            73.87            39.96            84.3              56.78                 -                                                             14.46
  Depreciation          305.07           294.18           342.09            392.68                -
       PAT             1273.57           1178.4          1606.73            1120.01             -4.19                       50.3

Source : Capitaline                                                                                                                                          Holding, 4.2
      Bajaj Auto                                                                                                   Industry : Automobile

      Investment Rationale                                                                               CMP (` ) : 1760.05

                                                                                                         BSE Code : 532977
        • At a time when spiraling input costs were eating the margins of its competitors in the last
          few quarters, Bajaj Auto had maintained its operating margins close to 20% throughout          NSE Code : BAJAJ-AUTO
          due to its superior product mix.
                                                                                                          Key Data
        • The company’s profit-centric strategy is focused on exports and strong presence in the
          interest-rate-insensitive 125-cc-to-below-250-cc motorcycle segment, where it commands
          49% market share. This places it in a safe spot as it would take awhile for aggressive        Market Cap (` Cr.)                         49030
          plans of world class players Honda, Yamaha and Suzuki to reach there.                         Equity Cap (` Cr.)                        289.37
                                                                                                        Face Value                                         10
        Risk & Concern:
                                                                                                        Book Value                                169.69
        • Rising fuel prices and mounting interest rates may hamper the demand of motorbikes
                                                                                                        Dividend Yield (%)                             2.36
          among upper middle class level.
                                                                                                        EPS                                       102.39
                                                                                                        P/BV (x)                                       9.99
                                                                                                        P/E (x)                                      16.55
                                                                                                        52 Week High-Low                 1706 / 1165.65

Financial Summary                                                                                         Shareholding Pattern (%)
    (` Crore)           FY08            FY09            FY10             FY11           CAGR (%)
    Net Sales                                                                                                                          Foreign,
                      8663.29         8436.94         11508.5          15998.12           22.69                                         16.44
     EBITDA           1313.68         1106.91         2552.66           4475.28           50.47                          Public &                 Institutions,
                                                                                                                       Others, 16.43                 8.33
     Interest           5.16           21.01            5.98             1.69                -
  Depreciation         173.96          129.79          136.45           122.84               -                                                     Corporate
                                                                                                                                                  Holding, 8.79
       PAT                                                                                                         Promoters,
                       823.97          794.9          1814.02           2783.55           50.05                      50.02

Source : Capitaline
      Infosys Technologies                                                                                               Industry : Software

      Investment Rationale                                                                              CMP (` ) : 2882

                                                                                                        BSE Code : 500209
        • Infosys Technologies Ltd is a global technology services firm that defines, designs and
          delivers information technology (IT)-enabled business solutions to their clients. The         NSE Code: INFY
          company also provides software products to the banking industry.
                                                                                                         Key Data
        • While the majority of revenues coming from exports the key trends in factors such as
          deal flows, discretionary spends, vendor rationalisation and performance of key verticals,
          appear quite favorable to Indian software companies.                                         Market Cap (` Cr.)                      158898
                                                                                                       Equity Cap (` Cr.)                       287.10
        • Added to these is the heavy depreciation of the rupee against the dollar to the Rs 49
                                                                                                       Face Value                                         5
          levels, which would further boost realisations for software companies.
                                                                                                       Book Value                               452.41
        Risk & Concern:
                                                                                                       Dividend Yield (%)                           2.17
        • Slowdown in US and European economy could deteriorate the order inflow.                      EPS                                      125.84
                                                                                                       P/BV (x)                                     6.12
                                                                                                       P/E (x)                                      21.9
                                                                                                       52 Week High-Low                3499 / 2161.5

Financial Summary – (Cons.)                                                                              Shareholding Pattern (%)
    (` Crore)           FY08           FY09            FY10             FY11           CAGR (%)
                                                                                                                    Public &
    Net Sales                                                                                                     Others, 14.05
                       16692           21693           22742            27501             18.11
     EBITDA             5963           7668            7900             9313              16.02                    Promoters,                  Foreign,
                                                                                                                     16.04                      51.13
     Interest             0              0               0                0                 -
  Depreciation          598             761              0                0                 -           Corporate
       PAT                                                                                             Holding, 8.06
                        4659           5988            6219             6823              13.56
Source : Capitaline
      ITC Ltd.                                                                                                              Industry : FMCG

      Investment Rationale                                                                                  CMP (` ) : 212.60

                                                                                                            BSE Code : 500875
        • The FMCG business of the company achieved significant improvement in profitability
          through a combination of product mix enrichment, higher net realisation and smart                 NSE Code : ITC
          commodity sourcing.
                                                                                                             Key Data
        • ITC is benefiting from a massive demand boom across the country, especially in the
          semi-urban and rural areas, due to rising income levels, government-sponsored
          employment schemes putting income in the hands of those at the bottom of the pyramid,           Market Cap (` Cr.)                  160959
          and a change in spending culture.                                                               Equity Cap (` Cr.)                   777.30
                                                                                                          Face Value                                  1
        • To maintain volume-growth, company is building a strong pipeline of new products and is
          exploring new categories to enter the domestic market. Further, they are enhancing their        Book Value                            21.05
          distribution reach in the rural India, where growth is much better than that in urban India.
                                                                                                          Dividend Yield (%)                      2.14
          The FMCG market will continue to grow on a mix of volume- and price-growth but input
          costs will be high and competition will remain intense.                                         EPS                                     5.65
                                                                                                          P/BV (x)                                9.84
        Risk & Concern:
                                                                                                          P/E (x)                               36.63
           Rising competition and tight margins, any exponential rise in commodity prices may turn        52 Week High-Low                211.25 / 149
           the raw materials expensive.

Financial Summary – (Cons.)                                                                                  Shareholding Pattern (%)
    (` Crore)           FY08            FY09            FY10              FY11           CAGR (%)
                                                                                                                            Public &
                                                                                                                          Others, 11.43
    Net Sales          14569.1        16556.14        19135.87          22273.66           15.20           Corporate
                                                                                                          Holding, 6.17                         Foreign,
     EBITDA            5162.19         5590.45         6954.59          8184.18            16.60
     Interest           6.28            18.69           64.98            50.22                -
  Depreciation         472.87          580.86           643.9            699.09               -          Institutions,
       PAT             3157.76         3324.59         4168.18          5017.93            16.69

Source : Capitaline
      PNB                                                                                                                Industry : Banking

      Investment Rationale                                                                               CMP (` ) : 925

                                                                                                         BSE Code : 532461
        • PNB is India’s second largest bank in terms of business size. The bank has consistently        NSE Code : PNB
          outperformed the industry in loan growth.

        • The bank has been following a strategy of growing its deposits at a slightly lower pace         Key Data
          than the rate at which it grows its loan book throughout the year.
                                                                                                        Market Cap (` Cr.)                             30736
        • At the current level, its credit-deposit ratio is close to 77.3%. It grew faster than the
          industry average while keeping its asset quality intact.                                      Equity Cap (` Cr.)                            316.81
                                                                                                        Face Value                                            10
        • Net non-performing assets formed 0.85% of net advances at the end of the March 2011
                                                                                                        Book Value                                      632.5
          quarter. PNB has one of the lowest ratios of bad loans among state-run lenders.
                                                                                                        Dividend Yield (%)                                2.27
        Risk & Concern:
                                                                                                        EPS                                           141.10
        • Continuous rise in interest rates would hurt borrowers' ability to repay loans and increase   P/BV (x)                                          1.54
                                                                                                        P/E (x)                                           6.90
                                                                                                        52 Week High-Low                     1399.9 / 871

   Financial Summary – (Cons.)                                                                            Shareholding Pattern (%)
     (` Crore)          FY08            FY09            FY10             FY11           CAGR (%)
                                                                                                                             Public &
 Total Income         16737.31        22704.33        25533.83         31287.65           23.19                            Others, 3.99   Foreign,
 EBITDA               4221.61         4916.99         7479.91           9331.3            30.26
 Provisions &
 Cont.                 720.97             0           1437.25           2556.05              -                                                       Institutions,
 Depreciation             0               0               0                0                 -              Promoters,
 PAT                  2203.09         3197.03         3972.57           4574.73           27.58
                                                                                                                                                        Holding, 1.43
Source : Capitaline

 Ajay Kumar Srivastava : ajaykumar.s@religare.com
 Swati Saxena          : swati.saxena@religare.com


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