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Daily Stock Traders Guide 08022012


  • pg 1
                                 Daily Stock Trader’s Guide                                                                                                                                                             Feb, 08, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                             US stocks have closed slightly higher as
                                                                                                                                                                                             investors turned their eyes to Greece, where
                                                                                                                                                                                             talks dragged on over terms of new spend-
                                                                                                                                                                                             ing cuts. Dow gained 36 points while S&P
                                                                                                                                                                                             500 500 gained 3 points to 1,347. Nasdaq
                                                                                                                                                                                             composite was up 2 points to 2,904. Euro-
                                                                                                                                                                                             pean stocks closed narrowly mixed as the
                                                                                                                                                                                             markets kept a wary eye on developments in
                                                                                                                                                                                             Greece where the government meets soon
                                                                                                                                                                                             on another set of tough and unpopular aus-
                                                                                                                                                                                             terity measures. After so much wrangling
                                                                                                                                                                                             and disputes, and countless reports that an
Nifty shed 27 points or 0.49% to close at 5335 putting a break to 5th straight day of rise on profit booking. Global                                                                         accord to save Greece from default was
markets galloped this year. Our markets leaped even when Supreme court cancelled all 122 telecoms licenses.                                                                                  near, the markets were cautious and weary
Current bullish trend is liquidity driven due to strong FII's inflow of about $2 billion in January, propelling Nifty by                                                                     at the same time. News that commodities
more than 12% in last 30 days. Nifty wiped most of the losses of 2011 (down just 1.13% in last 365 days) but traders                                                                         trader FTSE 100 closed virtually unchanged.
are worried about outcome of elections, coming budget, expensive valuation & European debt crisis. Nifty is still in                                                                         In Paris, the CAC-40 index gained 0.18% but
bullish territory. Nifty hit a low of 4531 on 20th Dec’ 11. Buying gained momentum thereafter. Last week Nifty de-                                                                           in Frankfurt the DAX 30 slipped 0.16%.
clined to a low of 5077 before closing at 5326. Volumes in cash is hovering 7000 Cr mark. Nifty is trading well above                                                                        Asia's major stock markets have mostly
200 DMA (Since 1st Feb) & therefore bulls are in full command bellying every hope of a impending correction. Fur-                                                                            closed lower, tracking overnight losses on
ther 20 SMA crossed above 50 SMA, a bullish crossover & again crossed 100 SMA. All these are good omen for the                                                                               Wall Street, with investors retreating after
bulls but the medium-term trend decider is the zone up to 5383—5450. Nifty can now move up further to 5400, 5450                                                                             Greece again failed to cut a deal on tackling
& 5650. 61.8% retracement from peak of 6357 at 5383 will be the next important hurdle for bulls. Bulls during last 2                                                                         its debt mountain. Tokyo lost 0.13 per cent
days failed to cross this level. Support is at 5323, 5300, 5256, 5226, 5190, 5159, 5090, 5021 & 4956. Traders can                                                                            at the close, or 11.68 points, to 8,917.52
hold their longs above 5100. Resistance is at 5383, 5390, 5413 & 5450. It would be better if market consolidate                                                                              while Sydney shed 0.5 per cent, or 21.8
here for few days. A drop below 200 SMA (5186) can take us to 4800, 4790, retest 4531 or even 4187. Nifty trading                                                                            points, to end at 4,274.2. Seoul closed 0.43
below 4900 should alert bulls for further downward move. Overall during last 6 months Nifty is trading in a range of                                                                         % up. Hong Kong closed slightly down on
4531-5400 & therefore Nifty has to move beyond 5400 if it want to exhibit real bullishness & failure to do so is likely                                                                      0.05% & Shanghai dipped 1.68%.Oil prices
to resume decline. Long-term trend continue to be up. Nifty is up around 45% from March 2009 lows & is a good                                                                                have climbed nearly 2% after Iran again
correction. A word of caution: Technical hints overbought conditions. The fall in Crude prices & Baltic Dry Index is                                                                         threatened to cut off supplies to Europe
flashing red light. FM is not optimistic about growth in 2012-13. CSO, yesterday, lowered GDP growth figure to 6.9%                                                                          before the European Union begins an oil
for current FY. Our fortunes are directly linked to EU (Trade worth 3.72 lakh Cr. in 2010).Greek resistance to reforms                                                                       embargo this summer. NYMEX crude rose
is a big worry & may trigger a messy debt default gave pause to mounting hopes the global economy is improving.                                                                              by $156 to $98.47. Gold rose 1.5% as ex-
Germany told Greece on Monday to make up its mind fast on accepting the painful terms for a new EU/IMF bailout,                                                                              pectations that a Greek rescue deal will be
but the country's political leaders responded by delaying their decision for yet another day. Be very cautious as ac-                                                                        completed drove the US dollar down sharply
tion this week is critical for bulls. If it failed to cross & close above 5400 (failed during last 2 days) it can start a de-                                                                against the euro. Spot gold was up 1.6% at
cline. Market is likely to open in green by around 10 points. Trade with proper stop loss.                                                                                                   $1746.09 an ounce. In early trade, gold had
                                                                                                                                                                                             dipped as low as $1709.29, which was near
                                                                                                                                                                                             a two-week low. US gold futures for April
Performance Feb 07                                                                      SCORE 1/5                                Spot NIFTY Movement                                         delivery were up $24.40 at $1749.30. Silver
      AXISBANK                                  REMAIN IN NTZ                                   NIFTY 50                               High                            5413                  climbed 1.8 % at $US34.24. ASIAN MAR-
                                                                                                                                                                                             KET TODAY: Australia is trading up by
           CIPLA                            1ST UTR ACHIEVED                                  ADVANCE 16                                Low                            5323                  0.27% & Hong Kong by 0.48% China is
                                                                                                                                                                                             trading flat. Nikkei is trading in green by
      ICICIBANK                                 REMAIN IN NTZ                                   DECLINE 34                            Close                     5335 (-27)                   0. 69%. SGX NIFTY is trading up by 17
                                                                                                                                                                                             points at 8.17 IST.
      JSWSTEEL                                  REMAIN IN NTZ                                 LAST 30 DAYS                      52 Wk low                             4531
           NTPC                                 REMAIN IN NTZ                                         12.39%                 Nse Cash T/O 6797 Cr.
DAY TRADE RECOMMENDATION FOR TO-DAY                                                      Supports & resistances levels likely to act within a +/- 5 points
        STOCK                        LOWER TARGET (LTR)                                  Stop LOSS Sell BELOW No Trading Zone Buy ABOVE Stop LOSS                                                            UPPER TARGET (UTR)

          INFY                     2630/45/60/72/2685                                       2728                     2695                   2695-2770                           2770             2727       2780/92/805/15/825
        M&M                           650/56/62/67/673                                        690                     680                      680-702                           702              689           707/12/19/725
     MARUTI                         1190/198/208/1216                                       1247                     1225                   1225-1268                           1268             1246        1280/290/300/1308
         SBIN                     2067/80/92/104/2117                                       2154                     2130                   2130-2190                           2190             2153       2200/12/25/35/2250
     STERLITE                               109/111/114                                       123                     119                      119-128                           128              122             131/134/138
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