axisdirect-dmn 12-12 by icestar

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									MORNING NOTE                                                                                                              12 December 2011

Indian Indice s                                                            Market Commentary
Index                     C urre nt Value        1D%           Y TD %
Sensex                        16213              (1.67)        (20.9 5)    The markets opened gap down and attempted an up move but remaining
Nifty                            4867            (1.56)        (20.6 7)    negative traded in a tight range touching lowest point by afternoon
BSE - Mid Cap                    5621            (0.86)        (27.9 6)    session. The markets pared some of the losses in the afternoon session but
BSE - Sml Cap                    6054            (0.89)        (37.4 0)    slipped back in the last hour closing the day on a weak note. All the
SGX Nifty Fut                    4913             0.62         (20.3 0)    Sectoral indices ended in the red with Capital Goods, Auto and Oil & Gas
                                                                           losing more than 2% each.
S ectors –Pe rformance
Auto                             8522            (2.26)        (16.7 4)    Among the Sensex stocks Coal India (1.10%), Maruti Suzuki (1.08%) and
Bankex                        10157              (1.07)        (24.0 9)    Hindalco (1.00%) were the gainers while Jaiprakash Assoc. (4.67%), M &
Capital Goods                    9395            (2.58)        (39.0 5)    M (3.62%) and BHEL (3.45%) were the losers. The Sensex lost 275 points
Con. Durables                    5705            (0.06)        (10.2 6)    or 1.67% to close at 16,213 while Nifty lost 77 points or 1.56% to close at
FMCG                             3989            (1.22)         8.28
                                                                           4,867.
Health care                      5959            (0.43)        (11.5 2)
IT                               5733            (0.84)        (15.9 9)    Total traded turnover stood at Rs 151,598 cr. In equities FIIs were net
Metal                         10420              (0.76)        (40.7 8)    sellers of (Rs 249 cr) while DIIs were net buyers of (Rs 115 cr). On the
Oil & Gas                        8022            (2.04)        (24.3 3)    derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in Index Futures (Rs 1092 cr), Index
PSU                              6845            (0.78)        (27.6 5)    Options (Rs 1473 cr) and Stock Options ( Rs 14 cr) while they were net
Power                            1925            (1.80)        (35.5 9)    buyers in Stock Futures (Rs 102 cr).
Real ty                          1577            (1.31)        (44.7 8)
Teck                             3413            (1.11)        (15.6 5)
                                                                           The US markets ended positive amidst better than expected economic
IPO                              1401            (1.15)        (28.1 6)
                                                                           data and after European leaders agreed on stronger economic union with

G lobal Indices                                                            plan to strengthen budget rules. The Dow Jones gained         187 points
Index                     C urre nt Value        1D%           Y TD %      or 1.55% to close at 12,184 while NASDAQ gained 50 points or 1.94% to
Dow Jones                     12184               1.55          5.24       close at 2,647. The European markets too ended positive.
Dow Futures                   12206              (0.03)         7.66
Nasdaq                           2647             1.94          (0.23)
                                                                           The Asian markets are trading higher. Nikkei is trading higher by 1.46%
DAX                              5987             1.91         (13.4 1)
                                                                           and Hang Seng is currently trading higher by 1.44%.
Nikkei 225                       8661             1.46         (15.3 3)
FTSE 1 00                        5529             0.83          (6.28)     The markets are expected to open on a positive note. The declaration of
Hang Seng                     18854               1.44         (18.1 5)
                                                                           IIP data today may affect the market sentiment.
Shan ghai A Sha                  2304            (0.49)        (17.9 6)
Bovespa                       58236               1.36         (15.9 7)
Strait Times                     2718             0.88         (14.7 9)

FII Trading activities in Cash
FII trading activity on NSE & BSE in Capital Market Segment (Rs.Cr)

Category                  Date        Buy Value Sell Value     Net Value
FII                     09-Dec          1772        2020         (249)
DII                     09-Dec          985          870          115


Source: NSE, Bloomberg; As on 8.30 am IST
                                                                                 1
 FII Trading activities in F&O                                              Corporate News
 FII Derivatives Statistics for 9/12   Buy (cr)   Sell (cr)   OI EOD (cr)
 Index Futures                          2046       3138        11052        l   Ajmera Realty & Infra India has acquired 100% stake in Ajmera
 Index Options                         23783      25255        47627
                                                                                Biofuel Ltd. subject to such approvals and permissions as may be
 Stock Futures                          1986       1884        25121
 Stock Options                           531        546         832             required. Further, ABL has entered into a JV with Comet Power, an
                                                                                associate company of Videocon Group, wherein ABL shall hold 49%
 Market volatility                                                              stake and rest 51% shall vests with Videocon Group. The said JVC has
                                       Latest     Avg MTD     Avg YTD
                                                                                commenced operation for 5.75 MW solar power project at Rajasthan.
 CBOE VIX                                 30      (13.97)         -
 NSE VIX                                  30       19.36        78.32
                                                                            l   Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd (BPCL) is planning Rs 18,000 cr to Rs
 Fixed Income and Forex Rates                                                   20,000 cr investment over the next 5 years for setting up a
 Interbanks Rates                       Latest    BPS 1D       BPS YTD
                                                                                petrochemical plant and expansion of the Kochi refinery. The
 MIBOR                                  8.49       (1.44)       26.42
 2 Y GSec India                         8.31       (0.06)       11.19
                                                                                company is looking at diversification into petrochemicals by building a
 10 Y GSec India                        8.52       (0.04)        7.63           niche speciality chemical project at a cost of Rs 5,000-6,000 cr at
 10 Y GSec US 10                        2.06       (0.17)      (37.53)
                                                                                Kochi.
 10 Y GSec UK 10                        2.16       1.94        (36.40)
 10 Y GSec Japan 10                     1.02       0.29         (9.22)
 LIBOR - 1 Month                        0.28       0.09          6.11       l   Essar Oil Ltd has proposed to set up a 6 mn tonne refinery in Uganda.
 LIBOR - 3 Month                        0.54       0.32         78.91           The company also plans to invest $1 bn (~ Rs 5,100 cr) in expanding
 LIBOR - 6 Month                        0.76       0.20         67.13
                                                                                the capacity of its Kenya refinery.
 LIBOR - 1 Year                           1        0.25         38.92


 Rates                                  Latest    BPS 1D       BPS YTD      l   ITNL International Pvt Ltd (IITL), a subsidiary of IL&FS Transportation
 INR/USD                                52.04      (0.54)      (14.10)          Networks Ltd (ITNL) signed an agreement with the Chongqing
 INR/EUR                                69.82      (0.72)      (14.34)
                                                                                Expressway Group Co Ltd (CEG) and SASAC- Chongqing to acquire
 INR/GBP                                81.16      0.16        (14.11)
 INR/YEN (100)                          66.82      0.19        (17.57)          49% of the equity interest in Chongqing Yuhe Expressway Co Ltd.
 INR/SGD                                40.21      0.10        (13.37)
 USD/EUR                                1.34       (0.24)       (0.22)
 USD/GBP                                1.56       (0.17)        0.21
 USD/GBY                                77.63      0.03          4.5
 USD/AUD                                0.98        0.30         0.46
 USD/SGD                                1.29       (0.11)       (0.84)




Source: NSE,RBI,Bloomberg
                                                                                  2
Commodities
                                                                        Corporate News
Particular                         Current         % Change   % YTD
                                                                        l   ICSA India along with its partner Dongfang Electronics Company Ltd
Gold (US $/t oz)                     1710           (0.10)    20.35
Silver (US $/t oz)                    32            (1.36)     2.79         (Dongfang), China has bagged 3 LOIs totaling Rs.73.40 cr from 3
Oil (Brent-US$/bbl)                  109            (0.02)    14.14         Distribution Utilities in state of Madhya Pradesh for the establishment
Oil (Nymex-US $/bbl)                  99             1.09      8.79         of SCADA/ DMS projects in 5 cities in the state under RAPDRP
Baltic Dry Index                     1922            2.13      8.40
                                                                            scheme.
Dollar Index                          79             0.14     (0.36)


Metals
Aluminium (US $ /MT)                 2064            0.16     (16.12)
                                                                        l   Power Grid Corporation of India board has approved investments
Copper (US $ /MT)                    7793            1.39     (19.25)       worth over Rs 692 cr. The company's equity participation in the
Lead (US $ /MT)                      2148            3.02     (16.21)       proposed Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) being created by the
Nickel (US $ /MT)                   18584            1.64     (24.79)       Department of Telecommunications for setting up the National
Tin (US $ /MT)                      20201            0.48     (24.96)
                                                                            Optical Fibre Network (NOFN).
Zinc (US $ /MT)                      1996            1.03     (18.34)
Steel Billetes (US $/MT)             538            (0.42)    (1.87)
Steel HRC (US $/s.ton)               585             0.00     (7.87)
Iron Ore (US $ /MT)                  135            (0.29)    (19.86)   l   Sun Pharmaceutical Industries subsidiary has received USFDA
                                                                            approval for its Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) to market

Soda Ash (75Kg)                      1000             -        2.56
                                                                            a generic version of Ultram® ER, Tramadol hydrochloride extended
Rubber (Rs/Kg)                       202            (0.15)    (2.17)        release tablets. These tramadol HCL ER tablets have annual sales of
Sugar (Rs/Qtl)                       3100           (1.10)     2.00         approximately $ 125 mn in US.
Tea (BP1) (US $/Kg)                   2.9           (1.69)    (22.46)
Urea (US $/MT)                       520              -       35.06
DAP (US $/MT)                        635              -        7.63
Newsprint (US/MT)                    665              -       (0.71)




Source: Bloomberg,Reuters;* - As on 8.30 am IST,
                                                                              3
  TREND EXPECTED                                                      NIFTY OUTLOOK                                               4919
                                                                                                                                  4866
  Weekly
  Monthly                                                           Last week, Nifty continued the upside momentum around 5100 level.
                                                                    However profit booking/selling pressure erased most of the gains from the
  NIFTY LEVELS                                                      earlier week. On weekly basis index settled at 4867 with 3.60 % loss.
  Spot Price                                              4,866     In previous week, index witnessed a sharp fall from weekly high of 5100 level
  Support                                             4750-4640     which was 61.80% Fibonacci retracement of the recent downfall (5400-
  Resistance                                          5100-5220     4639). This supply zone also coincided with 100 DMA resistance line. With
                                                                    Friday's close index witnessed a nine session's up sloping Trendline
  MOVING AVER AGES                                                                                                     SENSEX
                                                                    breakdown on closing basis indicating exhaustion of the short term pullback
  Nifty 20 SDMA                                           4,920     rally. On the weekly chart, index formed a bearish candle maintaining higher
  Nifty 50 SDMA                                           5,016     high-low compare to previous week. Daily price action has formed a Doji
  Nifty 200 SDMA                                          5,335     candle interpreting indecisiveness amongst the participants. In the coming
                                                                    week, if Nifty trades and closes above 4920 and 4950 levels would push index
  TECH NICAL INDIC ATORS/OSCILLATORS                                higher in the range of 5000 to 5060 levels. For the week, the bias is likely to
  RSI                                                   Negative    remain negative with downside support of 4750-4700 levels. The short term
  MACD                                                   Positive   and long term averages (20, 50 and 100 day SMA) are sloping downward
  Stochastic                                            Negative    which supports weakness ahead.
                                                                    The daily and weekly strength indicator RSI has turned down and placed
        BULLISH              - Clear uptrend seen.                  below 50 suggesting weakness. The daily momentum oscillator – Stochastic
        MODERATELY BULLISH   - Some Strenth seen.
                                                                    has given a negative crossover from overbought zone suggesting bearish
        NEUTRAL              - No Clear trend Seen.
                                                                    sentiments. However on the weekly chart it turned up with positive crossover
        BEARISH              - Clear Downtrend seen.
        MODERATELY BEARISH   - Some Weakness seen.
                                                                    suggesting a possible upside momentum is in offing. We expect Nifty to trade
                                                                    in range of 5100 - 4700 during the week with negative bias.




Source: ENAM Direct
                                                                              4
   NIFTY OUTLOOK                                                            4919
     CALL TRACKER
   Issue Date     Buy / Sell Stock                      Call Type Reco Price Stop Loss      Target 1 LTP (Close Rate) Diff %   Status   Remarks
   05-12-2011         Buy    Sail                       Positional     86.50      80.00      99.00        82.80       -4.28    Open     Technical Call initiated
   05-12-2011         Sell   Hind U  nilever (Future)   Positional     398.50     404.00     378.00       400.00      -0.38    Closed   Closed @400
   05-12-2011         Buy    HDIL                        Intraday      65.35      64.00      68.40        65.50        0.23    Closed   Closed @65.5
   05-12-2011         Buy    Century Tex                 Intraday      272.00     269.00     278.00       275.90       1.43    Closed   Book profit
   05-12-2011         Sell   Nifty                       Intraday     5,037.00   5,050.00   4,990.00     5,050.00     -0.26    Closed   Stop Loss Trigg
                                                                     SENSEX
   05-12-2011         Buy    M&   M                      Intraday      753.00     748.00     764.00       750.50      -0.33    Closed   Closed @750.5
   05-12-2011         Sell   Bharti Airtel (Future)     Positional     390.00     397.00     375.00       375.00       3.85    Closed   Book profit
   07-12-2011         Buy    Mundra Port                 Intraday    SENSEX
                                                                       131.00     129.00     135.00       133.50       1.91    Closed   Book profit
   07-12-2011         Buy    Tata Steel                  Intraday      417.00     414.00     424.00       418.00       0.24    Closed   Closed @418
   07-12-2011         Buy    Havells                     Intraday      430.50     427.00     440.00       439.60       2.11    Closed   Book profit
   07-12-2011         Buy    W  ipro                    Positional     399.25     394.00     415.00       415.00       3.94    Closed   Book profit
   07-12-2011         Buy    Educomp                     Intraday      224.00     219.00     234.00       222.30      -0.76    Closed   Closed @222.3
   08-12-2011         Sell   Tata Motors (Future)        Intraday      189.50     192.00     183.00       188.00       0.79    Closed   Closed @188
   08-12-2011         Sell   Hexaware (Future)          Positional     83.50      86.00      77.00        83.65       -0.18    Open     Technical Call initiated
   08-12-2011         Sell   TC  S                       Intraday     1,171.00   1,180.00   1,152.00     1,174.00     -0.26    Closed   Closed @1169.5
   08-12-2011         Sell           otco
                             HeroM (Future)                STBT       2,067.00   2,078.00   2,038.00     2,038.00      1.40    Closed   Book profit
   09-12-2011         Buy    Hind Petro                  Intraday      290.50     287.00     299.00       295.55       1.74    Closed   Book profit
   09-12-2011         Buy    Sun Pharma                 Positional     514.50     507.00     535.00       511.30      -0.62    Open     Technical Call initiated
   09-12-2011         Buy    Nifty                       Intraday     4,860.00   4,840.00   4,900.00     4,897.00      0.76    Closed   Book profit
   09-12-2011         Buy    Titan                         BTST        183.50     181.00     190.00       184.90       0.76    Open     Technical Call initiated




Source: ENAM Direct
                                                                                      5
   NIFTY OUTLOOK                      4919
    CALL TRACKER & STRIKE RATE FOR THE WEEK ENDED 09 December 2011

Ca te gory                              Month          Status           Diff %        S trik e Rate   No. of Calls
Technical                              December        Closed            16.4              71%            16
                                                       Open             (4.3 2)            61%             4
Technical Total                                                          12.1              69%            20




                               SENSEX
                               SENSEX
    MONTHLY CALL TRACKER & STRIKE RATE

Category                             Month         Status       Aggregate Returns %    Strike Rate    No. of Calls
Technical                             July         Closed             39.91               50%            174
                                     August        Closed             88.10               49%            258
                                   September       Closed             81.23               49%            231
                                    October        Closed             62.15               49%            130
                                   November        Closed             77.44               50%            152
                                   December        Closed             36.97               62%             31
                                                   Open                (4.32)             36%              4
Technical Total                                                       381.48                             980




Source: ENAM Direct
                                               6
In vestm ent Picks
C om pany               Targ et Pri ce   CMP    Targ et Pr ice/ C MP (%)
Aditya Birla Nuvo            1410        916             54%
Aurobindo P harm a           134          90             49%
Balkrishna Industries        223         171             30%
Bank of Baroda               915         725             26%
Bha rat Forge                337         263             28%
Bha rti Airtel               485         359             35%
Biocon                       413         315             31%
Cadila Healthcare            1027        696             48%
Century Textile              401         266             51%
Coal India                   419         317             32%
Container Corp               1237        909             36%
Corom andel Intl             400         288             39%
Divi's Lab                   971         728             33%
Dr Reddys Lab                1789        1568            14%
Elgi Equipments               91          69             32%
Em ami                       475         392             21%
Engineers India              304         210             45%
G lenm ark Pharma            391         305             28%
G odrej Consumer             485         388             25%
G rindwell Norton            299         234             28%
Indraprastha Gas             455         369             23%
ING Vysya                    370         306             21%
Jain Irrigation              172         115             50%
Jaiprakash Power Ven          49         38              29%
JP Associates                 78         63              23%
Jubilant Life                250         173             44%
K PIT Cummins                195         158             24%
Lupin                        540         441             22%
Motherson Sum i              231         152             52%
NMDC                         235         177             33%
O riental Bank               370         268             38%
Persistent Syste ms          379         303             25%
Piramal G lass               163         103             58%
PNB                          1175        926             27%
Power Finance                200         163             23%
Power Grid                   120         99              22%
Prestige Estates             117         77              51%
Redington                    128         82              57%
Reliance Inds                1025        755             36%
Tata Steel                   481         398             21%
Tecpro Systems               304         171             78%
Titan Inds                   230         185             24%
Tube Invst                   193         121             59%


Source: ENAM Direct
                         7
Economic events for the day
Country                                               Event                              Local/GMT                Expected                    Previous


IN                                       Industrial Production YoY% - Oct                 11.00 AM                 -0.7%                       1.9%



BSE Movers and Shakers
Top Gainers                 Lates t                   % 1D                  % YTD           Top Los ers             Lates t          % 1D             % YTD

Coal I ndia                 317                           1.1                0.68           Reliance Inds            755             (3.05)        (28.61)
Hindalco Inds               132                           1                 (46.36)         Housing Dev Fin          654             (2.21)        (10.13)
Kotak Mahindra              488                       0.81                   7.75           Larsen & Toubro          1227            (2.85)        (38.00)
Maruti Suzuki               986                       1.08                  (30.61)         HDFC Bank                445             (2.00)         (5.22)
Opto Circuits               205                       5.42                  (23.67)         ICICI Bank               732             (1.69)        (36.09)


Insight from trading volumes
Scrip                                 %Chg in Qty Traded (OverAvg 30days)             Qty Traded (‘000s)         Delivery %                    CMP*
Max India                                             1645                                  20282                    94                         167
United Brew                                               625                               2089                      6                         460
Dish TV                                                   346                               23838                    99                          61
Opto Circuits                                             217                               2184                     20                         205
Union Bank                                                170                               1712                     78                         213
Guj St Petro                                              94                                2085                     70                          84
Federal Bank                                              88                                 894                     82                         389


Insight from delivery
Scrip                                              Delivery %                         Total Volume “000     30 days avg Delivery %             CMP*
Adani Power                                               81                                 782                     44                          74
Dish TV                                                   92                                29647                    61                          61
Havells India                                             62                                 397                     33                         435
Union Bank (I)                                            78                                1712                     49                         213
Bhushan Steel                                             49                                 304                     25                         312

*CMP-Closing Market Price



Insight from bulk deals
Ent ity’s Name                                   Scr ip             Deal Type            Qty Trans “00 0        % of Share Capi tal             CMP*
Cresta Fun d - FCCB A/c                      Graphite India             S                      4 588                      2.35                    70
Blissup Holdings                            Strides Arcolab             S                       366                       0.63                    429
Janus Contrarian Fund                       Pantaloon DVR               S                       178                       1.12                    112




                                                                                8
   RETAIL RESEARCH TEAM




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