1128 Smith Slides by xiagong0815

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									Direct Survival of Migrating Salmonid Smolts
  in the Snake and Lower Columbia Rivers:
          Update with 2007 Results




Technical Management Team
Lessons Learned 2007    November 28, 2007
Steve Smith     steven.g.smith@noaa.gov
Bill Muir       bill.muir@noaa.gov
John Williams   john.g.williams@noaa.gov
                  Outline
• Juvenile survival and travel time through
  the hydropower system
• Percentage transported

  – Update with preliminary 2007 results

     •Annual summer “survival memo” released
      31 August 2007
     •Presentation at NWPCC Science Policy Exchange
      12 September 2007
    Survival and Travel Time
for PIT-tagged Spring Migrants
                                 Weekly Mean Flow (kcfs)
                                 Lower Granite Dam

                   200
                                            1997
                                                   2006
Mean Flow (kcfs)




                   150


                   100


                   50
                                                   2004 2007
                          2001
                    0
                         Apr   Apr Apr Apr May May May         May
                          9    16    23 30       7    14  21   28
                                 Date at Lower Granite Dam
                              Mean Percentage Spilled
                                 LGR, LGS, LMN

                   50                   2007          2006
                   40                          1997
Percentage Spill




                   30

                   20

                   10          2004                          2001
                   0
                        Apr    Apr    Apr Apr May May May           May
                         9     16     23 30      7 14 21            28
                                            Date
                    Weekly Mean Temperature
                        Little Goose Dam

              16
                                                  2001
              14                           2006
Temperature




              12   2004        2007

              10

              8

              6
                   Apr   Apr   Apr Apr May May May       May
                    9    16    23 30      7 14 21        28
                                     Date
  PIT-tag Data Sources
                      Chief Joseph

              Wells

                                    Grand Coulee
    Rocky Reach

      Rock Island

         Wanapum

        Priest Rapids
                                                           Snake R. trap
Juvenile detectors



                                        Lower Monumental
                                                                   Hatchery &
                                                                   Trap Releases
                           McNary

                                                               Hells Canyon
                                                               Oxbow
                                                              Brownlee
  Hatchery stream type Chinook (1993-2007)
                 1.00

                                                               Dworshak
                                                               Kooskia
Release to LGR




                 0.75
                                                               Imnaha R. weir
   Survival




                                                               Rapid River
                 0.50                                          McCall
                                                               Pahsimeroi
                            R2=0.948, p<0.001                  Sawtooth
                 0.25

                        0      200       400    600      800
                        Distance to Lower Granite Dam (km)
                                  Stream type Chinook
                              Snake River Basin Hatcheries
                                 Mean of index groups
                 0.8
Release to LGR




                 0.7
   Survival




                 0.6
                                                                        65.2%
                                            X = 61.8%
                 0.5



                 0.4
                       1993   1995   1997   1999   2001   2003   2005   2007
Stream-type Chinook median travel time
 Lower Granite to Bonneville (461 km)

                     50
Travel time (days)



                     40                         2001

                     30              2004
                     20
                          2007
                     10
                                 1997
                                            2006
                      0
                            12 Apr      2 May      22 May   11 Jun
                           Date leaving Lower Granite Dam
               Steelhead median travel time
            Lower Granite to Bonneville (461 km)

                     50
Travel time (days)



                     40
                                             2001
                     30            2004
                                                    2007
                     20

                     10
                          1997 2006
                      0
                          12 Apr     2 May     22 May      11 Jun
                          Date leaving Lower Granite Dam
 Stream-type
Chinook salmon                               LMO LGO
                                                         LGR
                                      93.0
reach survival                                                 SRT


                               96.0
                                         ICE
  BON        TDA JDA
                                MCN

        82.0 (90.6)     92.2          87.7     95.6   93.7 94.3
  BON             JDA          MCN           LMO LGO    LGR SRT
        81.4 (90.0)     85.1          85.5     90.3   92.4 93.2
 Steelhead                                  LMO LGO
                                                        LGR
                                     90.1                     SRT
reach survival
                              95.4
                                        ICE
 BON        TDA JDA
                               MCN

       61.4 (78.4)     94.7          84.8     91.3   88.6 100.0
 BON             JDA          MCN           LMO LGO    LGR SRT
       72.4 (84.9)     74.6          73.1     88.7   90.5 94.2
                                                          Lower Monumental to McNary

                                  Stream type Chinook                                             Steelhead
                     1.0                                                    1.0
                                                                                                                       84.8%
Estimated survival




                     0.9                                                    0.9                                        (92.1%)

                     0.8                                                    0.8
                                                          2004 87.7%
                     0.7                                       (93.6%)      0.7
                     0.6           X = 85.5%                                0.6
                                                                                           X = 73.1%
                     0.5
                                       (92.4%)                              0.5                (84.9%)
                                                                                                                2004
                     0.4                                                    0.4
                     0.3                                                    0.3

                           1995   1997   1999   2001   2003   2005   2007         1995   1997   1999   2001   2003   2005   2007
                                                          McNary to Bonneville

                                  Stream type Chinook                                               Steelhead
                     1.0                                                     1.0
Estimated survival




                     0.9                                                     0.9
                     0.8                                                     0.8
                     0.7                                                     0.7                                               55.5%
                                                                     76.0%
                     0.6                                                     0.6
                     0.5                                                     0.5
                              X = 70.2%                  2004
                     0.4                                                     0.4          X = 56.7%               04 & 05 extrap

                     0.3                                                     0.3

                           1995   1997   1999   2001   2003   2005    2007         1995    1997   1999   2001   2003   2005        2007
                                                      Snake River Trap to Bonneville

                                  Stream type Chinook                                              Steelhead
                     0.7                                                      0.7
Estimated survival




                     0.6                                                      0.6
                                                                   61.2%                          X = 34.1%
                     0.5                                                      0.5
                                                                      56.0%
                     0.4                                                      0.4
                                                                                                                         41.8%
                     0.3                                                      0.3
                                                     2004                                                                    39.2%
                     0.2                                                      0.2
                                                                                                              (04 & 05 extrap)
                     0.1          X = 48.6%                                   0.1

                     0.0                                                      0.0
                           1999     2001      2003          2005       2007         1997   1999   2001   2003       2005         2007
Percentage of fish transported
 Percentage of fish transported
Estimation of percentage of non-tagged fish
  is difficult!
• Requires estimate of total number of non-tagged smolts

• Data from PIT-tagged fish, but:
   – groups are treated differently, (almost) none like non-tagged fish
   – distribution of tagged fish not the same as non-tagged


• Transport started in middle of season
   – Proportion transported depends on travel times, etc.
 Percentage of fish transported

Preliminary estimates for 2007 based on
  PIT-tag data:

• 24% of non-tagged stream type Chinook
• 33% of non-tagged steelhead
  Percentage of fish transported

Why so low in 2007?

• Transportation started late
   – 57% of wild chinook past LGR before May 1
   – 24% of steelhead


• Low proportion of fish in bypass at Little Goose and
  Lower Monumental
   – Given percentage of spill more attractive in low flow?
Questions

								
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