The World in 2025
Brussels Seminar, 24 September 2009
The « Wild cards »
Thierry Gaudin
World 2025 wild cards
Wild card n°1
health diseases due to poor life conditions
(excessive and/or unsufficient consumption)
not visible through economic data
The evolution of human species
is worrying
The economist, nov 2004
Wild card n°2
droughts, floods and rise of the oceans
Droughts and floods
2050 business as usual IPCC scenario
Arctic
1979
Arctic
2003
Hurricanes
Sea level…
Climate refugees
~100M ?
Wild card n°3 :
biodiversity collapse
Pavan Sukdev report 14000G$=7%WGDP
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/biodiversity/economics/pdf/teeb_report_en.pdf
Biosphère II
How many different species for a stable ecosystem?
Wild card n°4
technology addictions
Sherry Turkle’s findings:
The human mind percieves
even machines as bearing
a personality
Vulnerability of the human brain
TV : less than 1h/day
TV : more than 3h/day
The « time barrier »
We do not live in an information
Society, but in a disinformation society
Classical economics relied
on a consumer
perfectly informed and aware
disorientation is everywhere :
Hyperchoice, cognitive overload…
Instability since 1987:
Mexico
Indonesia
Thaïland
Korea and even Japan
Russia
Argentina…
New tech
Subprime…
Will the next bubble be green?
What is the merchant ruling class doing, since it has
unshared power : bubbles !
The economic system went out of control
1-From democracy to lobbycracy
2-Public services (water, electricity, communication…)
captured by big firms, becoming like tax collectors.
3-From legal capitalism to mafia capitalism?
Social wild card
Critical times are coming
No future
Generation
Distrust and
violence
Rich and poor people at 100m on the whole planet
Sustainable readjustment!
development ?
The official response...
1848, 1929 :
-> Great public works
-> Mass education &
control
Suez Canal
By the time of Jules Verne
Great public works
Global water interconnection in India
46 rivers connected by 30 canals: 10000Km
Innovation : hydrogen plane (website EADS)
Crane Airships
Great public
works
Ocean cities
And other
floating structures
Towards self sufficiency
London, Freiburg im Brisgau…
Popular response: local Money
and complementary currencies (Lietaer)
Globalization=insecurity
Global currencies. (€,$…)
restrictions->
Autonomous currencies :
WIR, Chimgauer, Lets, Sel...
Example : Argentina crisis
http://www.lietaer.com
New measurements for welfare !
4 points on the agenda for 2025:
1-Planetary gardening
2-Reshaping economics
3-Global security concept
4-Global state of law
Planetary garden
Sustainable readjustment
Sustainable development
Each civilization has its own gardening
4 points on the agenda for 2025:
1-Planetary gardening
2-Reshaping economics
3-Global security concept
4-Global state of law
Accounting of
1-the prosumer’s services (Toffler)
2-the services rendered by Nature
3-the damages and resources depletion
4 points on the agenda for 2025:
1-Planetary gardening
2-Reshaping economics
3-Global security concept
4-Global state of law
In a « multipolar world »
deep change in the military missions
Civilian rescue and planet care may become a major task of
official armies under international command
--> Towards a global security concept, including civilian safety
and nature protection
Amazonia, Mato grosso
Forest destruction between 2002 and 2006
Who will protect nature ?
4 points on the agenda for 2025:
1-Planetary gardening
2-Reshaping economics
3-Global security concept
4-Global state of law
Montesquieu three powers and
Westphalia treaty (1648) outdated
Judicial
Legislative(s) Executive(s)
Europe’s role
Promote a world state of law
1-the international court of justice
2-the international criminal court
3-the Strasbourg human rights court
4-the Luxembourg economic court
4 points on the agenda for 2025:
1-Planetary gardening
2-Reshaping economics
3-Global security concept
4-Global state of law
The greatest wild card : a paradigm shift.
Life begins around 3.8 billion years ago
-0.8 billion years:
the first polycellulars organisms :
cooperation between cells and
mutual recognition for specialization
The core essence of life is made of cooperation: symbiosis
of cells, organs, individuals, organisations and species.
This cooperation, made of information exchanges,
In other words of recognition and aknowledgement processes
is « the rise of consciousness »
The « struggle for life » vision is therefore a marginal part
of life, the natural looping
Anyhow, the « struggle for life » ideology has inspired
political and economic thinking at least since the
industrial revolution : real politics, competitivity…
based on greed and fear
Facing the limits of the planet, the persistence of this
ideology would lead to « collapse » (Jared Diamond)
No sustainable civilization can be based on greed and fear.
The evolution of consciousness needs a great step forward.
Some scientists (IPCC…)
have already cautiously moved that way
some politicians are trying to promote it
and some firms are building a new « green lobby »
The 2010-2025 transition
From the disarray of the
show business society
Through a systemic crisis
To mass education and
great public works
World 2025, a WILD challenge to reason
Gilgamesh
Thanks for your attention
Thierry Gaudin