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									    The Reality of Livestock
      Movement Patterns

Rhonda Skaggs, Ph.D.
Professor, Ag Economics &
       Ag Business
     Las Cruces, NM
                 Outline

1. Livestock in the United States
2. Movement of livestock in the United
   States
3. NMSU research on U.S. imports of
   Mexican cattle
4. General trade situation & outlook
5. Beef & cattle trade in North America
 Livestock in the United States
• Cattle
• Sheep
• Hogs

• Interstate Livestock Movements
  – Shields & Mathews USDA-ERS 2003
  – http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ldp/jun0
    3/ldpm10801/
Cattle Imports from Mexico
Distribution of Imported Mexican Calves
                  2003
                   San Luis AZ    Columbus
                       4%            NM       Del Rio TX
                                     6%           9%
     Presidio TX
        21%
                                               Douglas AZ
                                                  8%

                                                 Eagle Pass
                                                     TX
    Nogales AZ                                      4%
       13%
                                               Santa
                                             Teresa NM
     Laredo TX                                  21%
                     Hidalgo TX
        6%
                        8%
                   Total Annual U.S. Live Cattle Imports
                         from Mexico (1961 - 2003)

                2,000
Head (1,000s)




                1,500

                1,000

                 500

                   0
                    1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
           Mexican Calves Exported to the U.S.
                         By Month (1972-2004)
       400,000
       300,000
Head




       200,000
       100,000
            0
             Jan    Jan    Jan    Jan    Jan     Jan    Jan
             1972   1977   1982   1987   1992    1997   2002
NM Research on Identification of Origins &
    Destinations of Imported Calves

  • Research began 2001
  • Interest in livestock traceability
     – Europe, Canada
     – Foot & Mouth, BSE
     – Terrorism
     – Tuberculosis

  • Data for imported calves
    – Sta. Teresa / San Jerónimo
              Sources of Data …
– Origins of the calves in Mexico
  • Certificado Zoosanitario; Unión Ganadera, J. Flores
  • 900 observations – The “Ins”


– Destinations of calves in the U.S.
  • Unión Ganadera, bills of lading; Wm. Wallace III
  • 4,025 observations – The “Outs”

  • New Mexico Livestock Board; Dr. S. England
  • 2,278 observations – New Mexico Inspection Certificates


– Assistance in obtaining the data
  • R. Tellez, NMDA
      Research Publications
• “Live Cattle Exports from Mexico Into the
  United States: Where Do They Come
  From & Where Do They Go?”

  – Skaggs, Acuña, Torell & Southard

  – http://www.choicesmagazine.org/current/2004
    -1-05.htm
       Research Publications
• “Mexican Cattle Exports to the US: Current
  Perspectives”

  – Mitchell, Skaggs, Gorman, Crawford &
    Southard


• http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/AgOutlook/
  june2001/AO282d.pdf
     Trade & U.S. Agriculture
• Food demand in the U.S. will not grow
  significantly in the future
  – U.S. population is affluent & well fed
  – U.S. food market is saturated
  – Food demand is income & price inelastic

• U.S. Ag needs international markets
  – Earnings from exports are 20-30% of total
    U.S. farm income
  – Trade is a two-way street
    Value of Agricultural Trade
• Japan, EU, Canada & Mexico are leading
  export markets
• Canada, EU & Mexico are top sources of
  U.S. ag imports
• U.S. ag exports > ag imports since 1950s

• U.S. is world’s largest ag importer &
  exporter
     Livestock (& Beef) Trade
• Live animals, meats, meat products, hides, by-
  products, genetics are widely traded
• U.S. imports & exports all types of livestock
  products and live animals

• U.S. beef exports = 10% of U.S. beef production

• Parts of 90% of all U.S. cattle end up exported
• 2003 export market losses = 60,000 head/week
      Top Markets for
        U.S. Beef

• Japan 32%
• Mexico 26%
• South Korea 24%
• Canada 10%
Total Value of U.S. Beef & Cattle
 Trade with Canada & Mexico

     U.S. Exports
      to Mexico
      & Canada
         34%




                          U.S. Imports
                          from Mexico
                            & Canada
                              66%




            $4.1 Billion (2002)
Total Value of U.S. – Canada Beef &
            Cattle Trade
                   Beef Exports     Breeding
        Slaughter to Canada       Imports from
        Exports to    12%           Canada
         Canada                       1%
  Breeding 2%
 Exports to                                  Slaughter
  Canada                                   Imports from
    0%                                        Canada
                                               41%




        Beef Imports
        from Canada
            44%



                  $2.8 Billion (2002)
Total Value of U.S. – Mexico Beef &
            Cattle Trade
                                 Feeder Imports
                                  from Mexico
                                      22%
                                               Beef Imports
                                                from Mexico
                                                    2%

                                                 Breeding
                                                 Exports to
                                                  Mexico
                                    Slaughter       1%
  Beef Exports to                   Exports to
     Mexico                          Mexico
       70%                             5%



                    $1.4 Billion (2002)
     Contact Information
         Rhonda Skaggs, Ph.D.
Professor, Agricultural Experiment Station
 Dept. of Ag Economics & Ag Business
         Box 30003 MSC 3169
      New Mexico State University
        Las Cruces, NM 88003
  Tel: 505-646-1344 or 505-646-2401
           Fax: 505-646-3808
       Email: rskaggs@nmsu.edu
          Acknowledgements
• New Mexico Department of Agriculture
  – Marketing & Development Division

• New Mexico Livestock Board
  – State Veterinarian

• Unión Ganadera Regional de Chihuahua
• Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua

• USDA – Economic Research Service
• USDA – Animal & Plant Health Inspection Service
      My Current Research…

1. Movement of cattle and meat between the
   U.S. and Mexico.

2. Description of the cattle export process in
   Chihuahua.

3. Econometric models including Mexican
   cattle imports.
      My Current Research…
4. Survey of calf exporters in Chihuahua.

5. Electronic identification systems –
   analysis and feasibility.

6. Development of improved bill of lading
   (proposed for use on U.S. side of cattle
   crossings).

								
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