Data Scoping report

2 RICSRESEARCH RESEARCH REPORT ZC MARCH 2009 L ZERO S GLOBA ACITY INDEX RIC CAP CARBON PORT LOGY RE O METHOD ZC 2 2 BAL ZERO RICS GLO APACITY INDEX C CARBON REPORT SCOPING DATA ZC AL ZERO ICS GLOB PACITY INDEX R CA CARBON PORT FINAL RE Research Introduction................................................................................................................. 3 Defining terms ............................................................................................................ 4 2.1 Built environment ............................................................................................... 4 2.2 Zero-carbon......................................................................................................... 4 2.3 Capacity .............................................................................................................. 4 3 Indicator Selection Criteria ......................................................................................... 5 4 Conceptual design of the GZCCI................................................................................ 5 4.1 Schematic Diagram............................................................................................. 5 4.2 Data search topics ............................................................................................... 7 5 The Adopted Physical Indicators ................................................................................ 8 5.1 ‘Supply’ (S) Indicator ......................................................................................... 8 5.2 ‘Consumption’ (C) Indicators ............................................................................. 9 5.3 The Rejected Physical Indicators ..................................................................... 12 6 The Adopted Institutional Indicators ........................................................................ 22 6.1 Policy (P) Indicators ......................................................................................... 22 6.2 Take-up likelihood ............................................................................................ 23 7 Adopted Physical and Institutional Indicators Framework....................................... 24 8 Concluding comments .............................................................................................. 25 1 2 2 1 Introduction In Nov 2007, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) commissioned the UCL Environment Institute to develop a new index capturing the capacities of countries across the world to make progress towards realising the vision of a zero-carbon built environment. The resulting composite index, known as the RICS Global Zero-Carbon Capacity Index (GZCCI), is being applied in its first run to a universe of 25 countries from across Europe, North and South America, Asia, Oceania and Africa (Figure 1). It is proposed that the index will be updated annually and that its coverage will grow with time. Figure 1 Countries included in the 2008 GZCCI shown in green This paper presents the scoping analysis for thematic indicators considered for inclusion in the synthetic index. Summarising from the earlier Methodology Report (available from www.ucl.ac.uk/environment-institute ), Section 2 gives a brief overview of the definitions of key terms in the project, and Section 3 recapitulates briefly on the desirable characteristics of indicators. Section 4 shows schematically the conceptualised, inprinciple design of ‘built environment zero-carbon capacity’. Together, these considerations guided the data scoping process. Sections 5 to 7 then detail the selected indicators. At the broadest level of aggregation, selected indicators may be split into the ‘physical’ and the ‘institutional’. • The physical indicators quantify ‘hard’ aspects of or related to the built environment1 to form a baseline assessment of a country’s current state in energy supply and use terms. Section 5 sets out the adopted indicators for this category whilst Section 6 alludes to those considered for inclusion but rejected. • The institutional category of indicators aims to reflect the extent to which a systematic policy programme exists in a country and the extent to which it may potentiate progress towards the zero-carbon built environment ideal. Section 7 elaborates on the ‘soft’ institutional indicators selected and the mechanisms for acquiring data for them, featuring a questionnaire survey of an international expert advisory panel formed for the purpose. 1 See Section 2.1 for definition of built environment. 3 This report should be a useful aid to third parties considering collecting information on sustainability and the built environment for other purposes and geographical scales. 2 2.1 Defining terms Built environment The GZCCI seeks to identify those aspects of a zero-carbon agenda that are distinctively concerned with the built environment, as a sphere of diverse professional and policymaking activity. This is a challenge. Too tight a focus on the built stock leads to consideration only of measures to do with the thermal energy efficiency of buildings. Yet it is clear that the built environment is more than just the sum of such buildings. It is the context for many different forms of energy consumption and production. Looking broadly at all the behaviours entailed, however, would dissolve any distinction between a zerocarbon built environment and a zero-carbon society or economy. Therefore the index has sought to take a middle-path concentrating where possible on measures concerned with the development, use and ownership of the built environment, while recognising that there are aspects of zero-carbon living (such as the use of renewable energy sources) that cannot be limited to action at the level of urban development. This view was formative in the final selection of indicators. Whilst the spatial unit of the research is fixed to the country, included indicators may be primarily identified with one or more built scales. Spatial scale targets on which potential indicators may happen to focus span across • the building • the estate • the neighbourhood • the urban area 2.2 Zero-carbon Definition of the term zero-carbon in policy discourse has generated much debate. Different conceptualisations exist over what spatial and temporal scales should be applied. There is also divergence as to whether the calculation should be based on a building’s whole life cycle or limited to current operational processes. The GZCCI adopts a relative, dynamic conceptualisation of the zero-carbon goal as an aspirational trajectory, highlighting the value of gauging the extent to which countries are building the capacity for moving in the direction of zero-carbon built environments and their likely future performance compared to their current status. Zero-carbon is therefore pragmatically defined as a directional goal, rather than being fixed quantitatively. The absence of carbon-neutral built environments, certainly at the national scale at which the index is fixed, in any case obfuscates the need for closer definition. 2.3 Capacity In conceptualising zero-carbon capacity, the focus is partly on the extent to which institutional frameworks have been put in place to move the built environment towards this aspirational goal. This is distinct from a purely technological perspective concerned with the physical fabric of the built stock. The index does however also take into consideration aspects of countries’ baseline physical states in terms of energy supply and consumption bearing on built environment sectors. 4 Bearing in mind the project’s focus on institutional frameworks in place, the index does not address directly questions of market demand or capacity for fostering carbon management measures2. 3 Indicator Selection Criteria Criteria are rehearsed here in brief only as they are largely covered in the Methodology Report3. In general, good quality indicators should be • Sensitive to change in the parameters under scrutiny • Built from robust and reliable data • Transparent in their derivation and use • Updated at appropriate intervals • Selection of a set of indicators should be guided by a balanced combination of theoretical integrity and data availability/quality, rather than being overwhelmingly determined by one or the other. Specifically regarding the GZCCI, stipulations for the indicators are that they need to be: • Available at the country scale • Available on a comparative cross-continental basis • Updated annually • Equitable when applied across countries with divergent technological, climatic and economic conditions (or capable of being normalised to correct for such variations eg by GDP) • Of the same directionality when applied across all countries included in the index. 4 Conceptual design of the GZCCI 4.1 Schematic Diagram Figure 2 below sets out the framework for how potential for movement towards zerocarbon built environments is being conceived and how indicators to assess this may be put together to generate a composite index. 2 3 It is relevant, however, to acknowledge he market-shaping influence of policy/institutional frameworks. http://www.ucl.ac.uk/environmentinstitute/Research/ZCCIndex_MethodologyReport_FinalWithExecSumm_Jan08_Updated.pdf 5 Figure 2 Schematic diagram of GZCCI components Figure 2 shows the four pillars upon which capacity to move in the direction of zerocarbon built environments is seen to be predicated. As shown on the radar diagram representation, countries may achieve the same overall index score via different distributions of strengths and weaknesses across the four dimensions. The thematic split between physical baseline and institutional parameters is made, but it is also attempted to suggest their interdependence in progressing towards zero-carbon built environments. The precise indicator(s) chosen for each of the four themes are detailed in Sections 5 and 6 below. The way in which these are then to be aggregated together to calculate the overall index, however, is detailed in the Final Report. 6 4.2 Data search topics Guided by the notional structure presented in the schematic diagram (Figure 2), Table 1 below shows the broad range of provisional themes against which data for indicators were sought. Through the data scoping exercise, it was decided on a case-by-case basis (i) (ii) which of these provisional themes could be included in the index, and whether a given theme was capturable through available pre-quantified physical data (those in Section 5), or whether it could alternatively be captured through information gained from a questionnaire survey of expert advisory panel members (those in Section 6). Themes Data search ‘Entry Points’ Energy consumption and efficiency Energy supply • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Transport Residential sector energy consumption Tertiary sector energy consumption Industrial sector energy consumption Embodied Energy of buildings across whole life cycle Building certification Sustainable construction Sustainable public procurement Green leases Carbon load of national grid energy supply / use of renewables Sub-city scale heat and power generation, including: • Micro-renewables / micro-generation • Combined Heat & Power / decentralised power Transport sector energy consumption Modal shift from private to public transport / Road travel reduction Modal shift from motorised to non-motorised movement (cycling, walking) Reducing demand for travel Spatial planning and urban design • Compact cities (eg residential density of capital city) • Development (new and intensification) linked to public transport capacity • Brownfield development / proportion of all development on previously developed land • Urban Heat island reduction through climatically appropriate surfaces Table 1 Topical guide for physical and institutional indicators data scoping 7 5 5.1 The Adopted Physical Indicators ‘Supply’ (S) Indicator Title of indicator S1 Renewable energy sources as share of Total Primary Energy Supply (%) Definition • Renewables refers to IEA category ‘Total Renewables’ which includes hydro (including pumped storage), geothermal, solar, tide/wave/ocean, wind, gas from biomass, liquid biomass, solid biomass, renewable municipal waste • Excludes non-renewable waste and nuclear energy • Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) is made up of: Indigenous production plus imports minus exports minus international marine bunkers +/- stock changes. Includes electricity and heat converted to ktoe. Source • Renewables data from International Energy Agency (IEA) via ESDS International, University of Manchester4 • TPES data from IEA Update frequency • Annual Justification • Carbon load of energy supply is a major influence on carbon emissions from built environment sectors • This indicator is unlike previous three in that its manipulability falls largely outside the built environment policy/practice sector. However, as the other three state indicators are measures of end-use sector energy consumption, it is desirable to balance this with reference to carbon load of energy supply • That said, built environment sector concerns such as distributed power, heating and cooling systems, building-integrated low and zero-carbon technologies/microrenewables have potential to increase share of renewables in overall supply Caveats • Does not distinguish between distributed /district/ building-integrated configurations or technologies which are within the realm of influence of built environment on one hand and large-scale renewables on other which are not influenced by the built environment. • District-/building-distributed renewable energy technologies likely to be dwarfed by large-scale projects in influencing national share of renewables, so indicator not sensitive to built environment carbon management/energy efficiency measures. • The same data year is used as for S1- S3 for comparability, meaning a three year time lag relative to present. 4 IEA publishes annually a ‘Renewables Information’ edition on renewables and waste energy sources in OECD and non-OECD countries. 8 5.2 ‘Consumption’ (C) Indicators Title of sub-indicator C1 Residential Sector Energy Consumption per capita (ktoe) Definition • Total final consumption (TFC) of primary energy from all sources consumed by residential sector in the year specified on a per person basis • Includes all energy used for activities by households except for transportation • Data includes households with employed persons [International Sectretariat for Industry Classifications (ISIC) Division 95] which is a small part of total residential consumption Source • Energy consumption data from International Energy Agency (IEA) via ESDS5 • Population data from UN Population Division (UNDP) Update Frequency • Annual Justification • The domestic buildings sector is a major consumer of total energy and contributor to total carbon emissions. • Indicator can be expected to be sensitive to mitigation measures for both existing and newbuild stock. Caveats • Basic problem with energy consumption data is that actual performance measurements reflect not only built environment configuration and technical efficiency but also user behaviour, a major influence on energy performance of buildings. Indicator also influenced by appliance standards, not within the interest of the index. • Relationship between population (indicator denominator) and residential energy consumption is affected by household structure. Indicator does not take into account variations in household size. • Other socio-economic trends including demographics and income changes are known to impact on domestic energy consumption. • As at 2008, the latest dataset providing full coverage across countries sample is 2005, meaning a three-year data-lag. 5 The bibliographic citation for the databases is: , , , ESDS International, (Mimas) University of Manchester. 9 Title of sub-indicator C2 Transport Sector Energy Consumption per unit GDP (ktoe) Definition • Total final consumption (TFC) of primary energy from all sources consumed by transport sector in the year specified on a per unit GDP basis • Included are the following IEA categories: road; rail; pipeline (transport)6; domestic navigation; non-specified (transport) • Excluded are the following IEA categories: International aviation; world marine bunkers • GDP in current US$ Source • Energy consumption data from International Energy Agency (IEA) via ESDS • GDP data from World Bank World Development Indicators (WDI) Update Frequency • Annual Justification • The transport sector is a major consumer of total energy and contributor to total carbon emissions. • Indicator can be expected to be sensitive to built environment spatial planning levers which encourage modal shift from private motorised transport to public and non-motorised transport as well as those which reduce the need to travel such as urban mixity, appropriate densities and integrating public transport with new development or intensification. The largest proportion of non-air transport is fuel combustion in road-using motor engines. • Aviation is excluded as is not sensitive to built environment sector measures. In any case, it is partly international in nature, raising attribution issues for a countries-based index. • Private motor use rates is historically broadly correlated with affluence. Energy consumption is normalised by GDP to correct for this dimension. Caveats • Transport energy consumption influenced not only by distances travelled and mode of travel but also by inter alia vehicle technical efficiency, fuel carbon load, fuel pricing, fuel-efficiency of driving style for some modes. Indicator does not distinguish between these. • Normalising by GDP gives a partial view of countries’ transport energy consumption profiles • As at 2008, the latest dataset providing full coverage across countries sample is 2005, meaning a three-year data-lag. ‘Pipeline transport includes energy used in the support and operation of pipelines transporting gases, liquids, slurries and other commodities, including the energy used for pump stations and maintenance of the pipeline. Energy for the pipeline distribution of natural or manufactured gas, hot water or steam (ISIC Division 40) from the distributor to final 6 10 Title of indicator C3 Tertiary sector energy consumption per unit value-added from tertiary sector (ktoe) Definition • Total final consumption (TFC) of primary energy from all sources consumed by commercial and public services sector in the year specified on a per unit GDP derived from tertiary sector basis • Commercial and public services includes inter alia ‘Wholesale and retail trade; the operation of hotels and restaurants; post and telecommunications; real estate, renting and business activities; the collection, purification and distribution of water; maintenance and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; financial intermediation, except insurance and pension funding; computer and related activities; sewage and refuse disposal; public administration and defense; education; and other community, health, social and personal service activities’ [ISIC Divisions 41, 50-52, 55, 63-67, 70-75, 80, 85, 90-93 and 99] Denominator is value-added in current US$ Source • Energy consumption data from International Energy Agency (IEA) via ESDS • Tertiary sector GDP data from World Bank World Development Indicators (WDI) Update frequency • Annual Justification • Commercial and public services sector is a major end user of energy. Public services sector also has public leadership potential • Indicator denominator is value-added rather than tertiary contribution to GDP as value-added is a more direct measure of the contribution to the economy of a given sector than GDP (as GDP = Gross Value Added + Taxes on products Subsidies on products7) • Indicator can be expected to be sensitive to mitigation measures for both existing and newbuild stock Caveats • Basic problem of sectoral energy consumption figure being product of both technical and behavioural factors • Slightly differing definitions of IEA ‘commercial and public services’ and WDI ‘services etc, value added’ • It may have been desirable to separate out commercial from public services • As at 2008, the latest dataset providing full coverage across countries sample is 2005, meaning a three-year data-lag users is excluded and should be reported in the energy sector, while the energy used for the final distribution of water (ISIC Division 41) to household, industrial, commercial and other users should be included in commercial/public services. Losses occurring during the transport between distributor and final users should be reported as distribution losses.’ http://www.iea.org/interenerstat_v2/definitions/results.asp?id=160&Type=Flows 7 For clarification on relationship between GDP and GVA see http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?ID=254 11 5.3 The Rejected Physical Indicators Title of indicator CO2 emissions by sector Background The GZCCI incorporates as sub-indicators the total primary consumption (TPC) of energy by each built sector (residential, transport, commercial & public services sectors).The IEA does however provide data on the CO2 emissions of each built sector. Potential sources IEA Problems leading to rejection • CO2 emissions by sector is rejected as a sub-indicator as it conflates built environment characteristics with carbon load of the energy supply, meaning it would not be sensitive to changes in the built environment alone. The carbon load of the energy supply is already reflected, albeit indirectly, through the adopted Supply indicator (‘S’ - Share of renewables in energy supply). Title of indicator Industry energy consumption Background IEA provides data on built sector TPC. The GZCCI incorporates that for the residential, transport and commercial & public services sector. The sector ‘industry’, including all industrial sub-sectors such as mining and quarrying, iron and steel and construction, is available. Potential sources IEA Problems leading to rejection • However, it is omitted as industry emissions stem from a mix of plant and process emissions of widely varying proportions (between, for instance, a warehouse and glass factory at the scale of buildings, or between an advanced service economy and a newly-industrialised economy at the scale of countries). • The measure is driven primarily by the energy/carbon intensivity of countries’ industrial mixes and is not as directly sensitive to changes in built environment sector interventions as the other sectors. As such, its drivers are likely to be outwith the GZCCI’s built environment sphere of concern 12 Title of indicator Embodied energy: Materials consumed by construction end-use sector Background There are a number of identifiable steps in the life of real estate. These include asset creation; use, maintenance and refurbishment; and disposal/redevelopment. Carbon reduction management pertains to all of these, though measures usually focus on the operating impact of buildings rather than energy embodied, or embedded, in their physical fabric. The task of estimating the embodied energy of existing built stock across activity sectors for even one country, short of 24 countries, approaches the impossible, meaning a direct indicator quantifying the measure is unfeasible. Use of a proxy indicator focused on one particular commonly used building material component was considered. Various building codes and certification schemes provide guidance on construction materials which have relatively low embodied energy values. Steel and cement are obvious candidate materials. Potential sources Should a particular construction material of estimable embodied energy be identifiable as a suitable proxy, possible sources of data contributing to quantifying its production, transportation and end-use may be: • International Monetary Fund (IMF) Balance of Payments Statistics (accessible via Economic and Social Data Service International http://www.esds.ac.uk/international/). This records flows of goods, services and finance between economies • United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO) Industrial Demand Supply databases. This records inter alia domestic output, apparent consumption, imports and exports to/from the world on a national basis. The data is structured around the International Standard Industries Classification (ISIC) code system, which classifies industry broadly by product lines (eg food, textiles, iron and steel). See http://www.esds.ac.uk/international/support/user_guides/unido/indd sb.asp • United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade). This allows querying of trade quantity between selectable origin and destination countries by a range of commodities. See http://comtrade.un.org/db/ • Research has been produced on the amount of embodied carbon emissions in international trade (Peters and Hertwich, 2008). The interest for the index is in quantifying how much international trade has a building/construction end-use. Problems leading to rejection • There are difficulties with identifying one proxy material which would apply equally across all countries in the sample. Steel, for instance, is less widely used in the Middle East due to the cost of importing it, meaning that instead of full steel beams, concrete reinforced with steel rods is used for building frames. • CO2 emissions embodied in global trade are by definition international in nature, presenting attribution problems for a countries-based index. 13 Title of indicator Combined Heat and Power: Installed CHP Capacity Background CHP plants include those producing both heat and electricity. The International Union of Producers and Distributors of Electrical Energy (UNIPEDE) refers to these as ‘co-generation power stations’. Increasing the use of ‘district’ energy such as through CHP is a recognised climate change mitigation measure. The IEA (2008) states that “…there are important benefits that can be realized today from greater use of district energy and CHP, particularly in rapidly growing economies like Brazil, China, and India’. Potential sources • IEA/OECD provides data on CHP, divided into public and auto-producer CHP by country • The organisation Euroheat and Power has reviewed CHP/District Heating and Cooling (DHC) at country level for EU plus Russia, Ukraine, Slovenia. See www.euroheat.org. Problems leading to rejection • CHP is hard to characterise meaningfully. The appropriateness/investment payback period for a given country is strongly path-dependent. Built environment configurations are variously (in)conducive to increasing capacity, and some areas have a stronger tradition of its inclusion in infrastructure development than elsewere. Privileging one technology over others by including it in the index should be avoided. • Whether CHP is in net terms carbon neutral could depend too much on context to be included as an indicator. • The split between large-scale, industrial and small scale CHP varies widely across Europe and beyond depending on countries’ historical reliance on district heating (or cooling). • The efficiency of CHP systems varies greatly, potentially calling into question their carbon-neutrality in some instances 14 Title of indicator Micro-generation: Share of micro-renewables in total energy supply Background Micro-generation has been promoted a sub-city-scale measure to facilitate onsite or near-site zero-carbon energy balances. Potential sources • IEA (some micro-renewable components only) • National websites provide some further information The UK Energy Act (2004) defines ‘micropower’ as • Solar Thermal Hot Water Heating • Solar Photovoltaic (SPV) electricity generation • Wind turbines • Micro-Combined Heat and Power (CHP) • Heat Pumps • Micro-hydro • Biomass heating • Fuel-cells Problems leading to rejection • There is international data available on energy from renewables but this stops short of specifically district or building-integrated renewables. • A range of renewables eg solar panels, wind power, hydro power exist in both micro- and large-scale forms and are conflated in the data. • One approach would be to choose one or more of the so-named micropowers as a proxy. However , this risks bias towards some countries at the expense of others: some micro-technologies, such as solar panels or wind turbines, may be viable in some climates and not in others. • Moreover, no consensus exists in the literature of the efficiency of microgeneration as a supply-side mechanism for moving towards zero-carbon buildings. 15 Title of indicator Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses Background Distribution and transmission losses includes energy losses in gas distribution, electricity transmission, and coal transport. Distribution losses could arguably be used as an indicator due to its sensitivity to the production/consumption co-location efficiency principle. Potential sources IEA Problems leading to rejection • Distribution losses are partly due to statistical artefact, partly to technical transmission inefficiencies and a number of other influences which make it difficult to assess the extent to which losses are due to how centralised or decentralised the distribution network is. Title of indicator Car Use: Passenger cars per 1000 people Background The motorization rate is a usable indicator normalized by population. Automobile use is the principal CO2 emission source in the transport sector. Cars are less energy-efficient and produce more emissions per passengerkilometre than either buses or trains (UN Commission on Sustainable Development Sustainable Development Indicators, 3rd edition). Potential sources IEA International Transport Federation Problems leading to rejection • Transport emissions derive from sources other than car use • The diversity of influences on passenger car ownership rates (economic growth, cultural aspiration, road quality/congestion, availability and attractiveness of public transport alternatives) means that change in the indicator over time would ideally be cross-referenced with other transport indicators. • The data is not available for 6 of the 24 countries from the ITF and would need to be filled in from other sources 16 Title of indicator Road CO2 emissions per capita Background This is a measure of all road transport normalised on a pc basis. The figure is driven by car use but this draws into attention the contribution of road haulage and other non-car motorised transport (motorcycles / buses) as well as drawing attention to the fact that passenger and commercial road transport are relevant concerns. Potential sources International Transport Federation Problems leading to rejection • Its coverage of non-car as well as passenger car usage as well as private and commercial trips is a strength and weakness. It is a product of vehicle kilometres, vehicle type mix and vehicle efficiency, so may be sensitive to too many variables to be a useful indicator. • The data is not available from the ITF for 6 of the 24 countries in the 2008 sample 17 Title of indicator Transport Modal Shift: Ratio of Rail to Road CO2 Emissions Background The objective is to see how the relativities between rail and road change over time as a parameter sensitive to the desirable modal shift. This indicator would be aimed at measuring modal shifts from private to public modes in one compound indicator. A usable indicator in principle may be a ratio of passenger km by rail and passenger km by road. Potential sources United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Problems leading to rejection • The quantity of CO2 emitted by rail is very much smaller than that from road, so the approach of expressing their relationship as a ratio is not entirely satisfactory. Relatively big changes (ie large percentage increases in emissions) within the rail sector (the numerator) would not affect the ratio greatly. • Further, a train emits rather similar amounts of CO2 whether it is running with a full passenger load or an empty. A large change in rail patronage is required to prompt rolling stock capacity, whereas only a small change in road patronage is required to prompt a new car (frequently one new user means one new car). • The measures take into account both distance travelled and vehicle efficiency/fuel carbon load. • Information is not available from the ITF for 6 of the countries involved. • Data is available from the UNECE up to 2005 for passenger rail km. This covers up to 20 countries only . • Data for passenger km by rail has not been found to be available from one source for all or most countries. Reliance on documented CO2 emissions from each would instead be reverted to. 18 Title of indicator Non-motorised transport: Cycling and Walking (potential parameter unclear) Background Cycling and walking are now commonly encouraged through land use, transport policies and urban design. In some countries where cycling and walking has long been commonplace, the challenge of avoiding ‘reverse’ modal shift towards private motorised transport is posed. In the UK, for instance, where walking and cycling are in long –term decline, it is promoted amongst other benefits as a zero-carbon means of accessing public transport modes in preference to the car. Potential sources Various national sources only Problems leading to rejection • However, statistical data on cycling and walking in distance terms appears to be available only patchily (eg through local authority surveys, school catchment area surveys). • Data on cycle path distance is not available on a cross-national comparative basis. • An indicator could focus on the amount of funding dedicated to measures supporting cycling or walking, such as the UK’s Cycling Project fund, ongoing since 2005 . However, this would be difficult to isolate out from within packages of funding streams. 19 Title of indicator Public Transport/Development Integration Background Concentrating new development and intensification around nodes of high public transport accessibility and, similarly, coupling new development with public transport investment is an established principle for achieving long-term modal shifts away from private road transport. Potential sources National and sub-national. Problems leading to rejection • However, the principle is most elusive to quantify for the purposes of an indicator. An expert assessment of countries’ transport-development linkages in policy and practice should be gained from the advisory panel. Title of indicator Urban Density: Capital City Density (pop/sq km) Background • The key concerns here are fostering of urban forms which avoid sprawl and which are broadly associated with the appropriate densities which justify public transport infrastructure investment. Conversely, new building and intensification should be physically integrated with public transport capacity. Urban mixity of uses should encourage walkable environments. The proportion of development which occurs on brownfield/infill sites as opposed to on greenfield land could be argued to be a proxy for the extent of urban sprawl/compaction Potential sources National websites for capital city area and population Problems leading to rejection • Whilst density can refer to any activity sector, data is most readily available on residential densities. Given that it is the urban portion of a country on which the index focuses, there are a number of options for forming an indicator including attempting to cover all urban areas over a certain population threshold (say 100,000) or focusing on the capital or largest city only. • Whilst population in a city changes continuously, the political boundaries of the city change infrequently. Therefore, the density measurement, area divided by population, would not be capable of reflecting the reality of the density situation on the ground. • There is not full consensus in the literature that compact cities are always the lowest CO2 emitters 20 Title of indicator Urban Heat Island Effect Reduction: % Green cover within capital cities at 1km sq resolution Background The urban heat island effect of cities is partly generated by the higher proportion of dark surfaces and lower proportion of vegetated surfaces relative to non-built up areas. The albedo of pale and green surfaces moderates temperature extremes better than dark surfaces, reducing the need for energy-intense mechanised heating and cooling of buildings. The percentage urban coverage of these surfaces could be an indicator. Global satellite data to 1km resolution is available and updated annually. % Green cover of all urban areas would be ideal but one could resort to capital cities only as a less time-intensive proxy measure. There is an argument that the largest rather than the capital city should be used (eg Sao Paola instead of Brasila). Strengths • Repeatability • Annual updated source • Data free to 1km sq res • Potential for increasing resolution, theoretically up to 0.5x0.5m • Global coverage Potential sources Landsat imagery Problems leading to rejection • Satellite imaging picks up plant chlorophyll so vegetation can be identified. However, pale cover cannot be as easily identified. • For future development, city planning offices may have commissioned high resolution satellite imaging for planning purposes. However, such data may be hard to obtain and will not be processed to identify the green cover aspect. • A standard approach to city boundary definitions would be needed for comparison purposes. • Importance of albedo varies with geography of climate. • Green cover is only one factor in reducing urban heat island effect • Limit to 1km resolution will not capture smaller spaces eg non-park green spaces. Small resolution may be expensive (under 0.1km starts becoming significantly more expensive) • Won’t capture green rooves and green space smaller than 0.5km sq • Won’t differentiate between high and low carbon-sequestering vegetation • Green cover can be associated with energy-inefficient plant watering in warmer countries, therefore rendering it undesirable in such climes. 21 6 The Adopted Institutional Indicators It was clear that a range of the concerns desirable to include in the GZCII, such as built sector energy-efficiency targets, protocols encouraging building retrofitting and building certification systems could not be captured by readily available quantitative data already collated in the way it is for the supply (S) and consumption (C) indicators. This was despite the existence of a wide-ranging set of policies and measures databases compiled by the International Energy Agency, which did not give full country coverage, was not entirely up-to-date in places and moreover was challenged by some Advisory Panel members. Questionnaire responses were however to be proofed against available IEA policies and measures databases. 6.1 Policy (P) Indicators As such, it was decided to use the dedicated expert Advisory Panel to respond to a questionnaire survey for each country in order to populate the two institutional themes (policies in place; likelihood of policy take-up) shown in Figure 2. The questionnaire comprised a schedule of generic policy types considered instrumental in moving towards zero-carbon built environments, and which would be widely applicable across the countries involved. These were then considered the policy (P) indicators, drawn from a review of literature including grey policy literature. The P indicators are set out below (Table 2), with each country to be proofed against the table. Panel respondents were asked to state which policies existed in their particular country. Theme Efficiency of Newbuildings Efficiency of existing stock Embodied energy / impact of construction materials Behavioural Landlord-tenant ‘green’ contracts Spatial Planning/ Urban design Policy (P) indicators P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 Zero-carbon housebuilding policy Zero-carbon non-domestic building Building certification system Policy for retrofitting energy insulation Sustainable Public Procurement Policy Sustainable Construction Policy Green leases Spatial Planning for reduced carbon emissions incorporating public transport/development integration considerations; cycling and walking provisions; optimum urban densities P8 Table 2 Policy (P) indicators. Themes fall out of Table 1 above. The guide for determining each country’s performance against this policy categories table is that policies should be government owned8, initiated or endorsed, should exist at the national/federal level; policies which are anticipated but have not yet been adopted should not be included; and one national policy may fit into more than one category. In estimating the room for manoeuvre when fitting a country’s policy into the pre-set categories, the important principle to apply is whether that policy can in theory be 8 The one exception to the ‘national policy only’ rule is Policy 3 Building Certification. Here as the market leaders in building environmental design and performance are often voluntary third party schemes, and as there is interaction between them and statutory national standards, it was decided to include them. See ‘Differences That 'Matter'? A Framework for Comparing Environmental Certification Standards and Government Policies’ Constance L. Mcdermott, A; Emily Noah - B; Benjamin Cashore C Published in: Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning, Volume 10, Issue 1 March 2008 , pages 47 – 70. 22 expected to reduce carbon emissions. Thus, for instance, a low carbon domestic building policy would fit into category P1 despite not stating a zero-carbon aim as suggested by the pre-set category. Such considerations were conveyed in the instructions accompanying the questionnaires and in discussions with respondents taking up the Environment Institute’s offer of discussion about the questionnaire by telephone. 6.2 Take-up likelihood Returning to the schematic diagram in Figure 2, the fourth indicators theme, likelihood of take-up of policies (T), ran in parallel to the identified policies. For each identified policy, respondents were asked to make a judgement on the likelihood that each would be responsible for an on-the-ground decrease in carbon emissions, relative to a no-policy situation. It is acknowledged that this is a subjective assessment but the forward-looking near-term dimension it would add to the project rendered this a worthwhile element to pursue. 23 7 Adopted Physical and Institutional Indicators Framework Combination of Supply (S), Consumption (C), Policy (P) and Take-up (T) Indicators9 Consumption Supply (S) Policy (P) Take-up (T) (C) Physical IEA / WRI S Nonrenewables as % share of total energy generated C1 Residential energy consumption per capita Institutional Questionnaire survey of Advisory Panel P1 Zero-carbon house-building policy P2 Zero-carbon nondomestic buildings policy C2 Tertiary energy consumption per unit GDP from tertiary sector P3 Building certification system P4 Policy for retrofitting energy insulation C3 Transport (noninternational air) energy consumption per unit GDP P5 Sustainable Construction Policy P6 Sustainable Public Procurement Policy P7 Spatial Planning for reducing carbon emissions (incorporating transport considerations) P8 Green leases policy T1 Survey assessment of Take-up likelihood of P1, if P1 in place T2 Survey assessment of Take-up likelihood of P2, if P2 in place T3 Survey assessment of Take-up likelihood of P3, if P3 in place T4 Survey assessment of Take-up likelihood of P4, if P4 in place T5 Survey assessment of Take-up likelihood of P5, if P5 in place T6 Survey assessment of Take-up likelihood of P6, if P6 in place T7 Survey assessment of Take-up likelihood of P7, if P7 in place T8 Survey assessment of Take-up likelihood of P8, if P8 in place INDEX Theme Data type Data Source INDICATOR 24 8 Concluding comments The data scoping exercise was undertaken with the recommendations of the original Methodology Report in mind, and in particular the need to balance concept-led and dataled indicator selection. Based on the scoping exercise of available data, the following delimitations were applied to each notional element in the conceptual diagram: • Energy supply (S) is to be limited to renewables • Energy consumption (C) is to be limited to the residential, tertiary, and transport sectors • Policies (P) are to be focussed mainly on the national/federal level • Policy take-up likelihood (T) indicators are to be gathered in parallel to scores of (P) for each country. Countries with different score distributions across the four index parameters may yet arrive at a similar overall index score. The conceptualisation of ‘capacity to progress towards zero-carbon built environments’ is partial. This is an accepted and necessary limitation of the index in its current guise. Whilst there is an element of energy supply (renewables) considered in the index, the GZCCI is primarily a demand-side orientated assessment. In line with the built environment sphere of concern, it focuses on the baseline situation and actions possible within the demand-side chain rather than on energy generation or transmission. The availability of data decreases rapidly as geographical scope increases, particularly as one crosses the threshold from intra- to inter-continental comparisons. Information on rejected indicators is included as there were good reasons for considering them from some viewpoints and they may be useful to third party researchers wishing to pursue projects of alternative scales or purposes. Whereas the physical measures are derivable from robust, online data, the institutional dimensions are to be established by questionnaire survey of an invited expert advisory panel from each country. The quality of the composite index being constructed will rest on the robustness of its underlying indicators. This is a particular issue for the data acquired via the expert advisory panel and will need to be taken into consideration in the way in which the final index is calculated. 25 References Economic and Social Data Service International: IEA Renewable Energy Review, ESDS International (MIMAS), University of Manchester. International Energy Agency www.iea.org International Transport Federation www.itf.org Maguire, S and Rydin, Y (2008 Jan) ‘Methodology Report’ Working Paper. http://www.ucl.ac.uk/environmentinstitute/Research/ZCCIndex_MethodologyReport_FinalWithExecSumm_Jan08_Update d.pdf Mcdermott, CL, Noah, EB, Cashore, BC (2008) ‘Differences That 'Matter'? A Framework for Comparing Environmental Certification Standards and Government Policies’ Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning 10 (1) March, 47–70. World Bank ‘World Development Indicators’ United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) United Nations Population Division. Viewed Sep 08 UK National Statistics www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?ID=254 26