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					                            Is Terrorism A Legitimate Use of Force?:
                                     A Pakistani Perspective

Kristopher White1
SIS, American University
4400 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington DC 20016
kmpp82@yahoo.com

    Abstract


    The global “War on Terror” has reached every nation on earth in one way or another, and in the

process has considerably affected domestic and international perceptions of what terrorism is and how it

should be addressed. Billions of dollars are being spent on terrorist and counter-terrorist programs and

operations; however, the academic and field communities have not yet reached a consensus on the root

causes of terrorism.

    This research paper attempts to identify various factors that lead people to believe that the use of

terrorism is justified. Data was taken from 1225 surveys of Pakistanis conducted by the PEW Global

Attitudes survey in 2005. The dependent variable used was opinion of suicide bombing against

Westerners in Iraq compared to nine independent variables, the most important of which include gender,

income, education level, and opinion over the concern of Islamic extremism in Pakistan. After conducting

bivariate analysis and probit regression models, women proved 17% less likely to view suicide against

Westerners in Iraq as justifiable. These results indicate that terrorist and counter-terrorism operations

should not focus on income or educational level, but more cultural awareness programs focusing on men

from all socio-economic and education levels within the Pakistani context would prove more useful to

abate suicide bombing to be viewed as a legitimate use of force.




    1
        The author is grateful to Alexis Huff’s discussion and review of this paper.



                                                                                                            1
    1. Introduction
    Arguably, the United States is currently involved in three wars due to the “War on Terror”,

innumerable military operations attempting to identify and apprehend terrorists are underway, and

development aid is now centered around combating terrorism through education. The Afghanistan war,

directly caused by the September 11th 2001 terrorist attacks, has had significant implications for its

neighbor Pakistan and its citizens. Terrorist activity and suicide bombers within and from Pakistan have

become more frequent and intense within the last 10 years. This phenomenon can be attributed to many

different factors, including north-east Pakistan becoming a terrorist safe-haven due to the war in

Afghanistan and a deteriorating economic situation combined with a continuing oppressive government.

In light of the rising tide of terrorism, it is vital to understand if, how and why terrorism and suicide

bombing are culturally condoned and/or rejected from within Pakistan.

    Research Question:

    Does the level of education, religious tolerance and income determine how individual Pakistanis view

terrorism and suicide bombing?

    Research Hypothesis:

    Controlling for income, religious intensity, education, age, gender, and four other variables, I predict

there will be a statistically significant relationship between individuals with a low level of income in

Pakistan and a positive opinion that suicide bombings is justified against Westerns in Iraq.




    The following section of this paper will provide a literature review giving a brief overview of articles

that have explored similar questions regarding the root causes of terrorism. Afterwards, the data sections

will explore the statistical findings based on data found from the 2005 PEW Global Attitudes survey.




                                                                                                               2
    2. Literature review
    The international community and internal United States debate concerning the definition, form, and

risk of terrorism has been constant and intense since September 11, 2001. Scholars and practitioners,

especially within the US, have been in a frenzy to identify the most pressing and fundamental question

concerning terrorism, what drives terrorists towards terrorism? Two main schools of thought exist in the

academic community concerning the causes of terrorism. The first line of logic believes that terrorists turn

to terrorism because they are poor, uneducated and angry. The second group contends that terrorists are in

fact usually educated, middle-class, satisfied men who resort to terrorism because they are religious

extremists dedicated to attacking those who attacked the ‘Muslim nation’. Two well respected terrorism

theorists, Peter Bergen and Alexander Ritzmann, wrote articles (in 2008 and 2007 respectively) identifying

opposing characteristics of terrorists. This paper will attempt to use the theories provided by the

aforementioned analysts as a basis to ascertain if the same characteristics that lead terrorists to terrorism

(religion, income, satisfaction, education, etc), also lead the Pakistani public to believe that terrorism is a

legitimate use of force. NOTE, the data used in this paper cannot link the actions of terrorist to the opinion

of the Pakistani community concerning the legitimacy of terrorist acts.


    In Peter Bergen’s 2008 article “Safe at Home”, he contends that the United States is safe from terrorist

attacks on its home soil in the foreseeable because American Muslims have higher levels of education and

income than the average American. Bergen believes that those whom become terrorists are motivated to

do so because they are poverty stricken and uneducated; therefore, if American Muslims have higher levels

of education and income than the average American, they would never be induced to become terrorists.i


    Alexander Ritzmann’s 2007 article “The Fairytale of the Poor and Angry Terrorists” attempts to dispel

popular myths concerning terrorists, mainly that they are uneducated and poor. Ritzmann cites multiple

sources, including a study of 172 global Salafi jihadis and an analysis of 72 jihadis in Europe, to illustrate

that terrorists are usually educated, middle-class, socially integrated men with strong ties to their

community. Ritzmann dismisses the concept that terrorists are foolish, crazy men fighting for jobs; rather


                                                                                                                  3
he believes that jihadis around the world are bonded together and motivated by religion, seeking

retribution and justice from any that have attacked the Muslim nation.ii


    The above theorists represent the two generally accepted lines of reasoning concerning the root causes

of terrorism. This paper attempts to analyze various factors which might influence Pakistani attitudes

towards terrorism. Perhaps, just as Peter Bergen believes are the possible causes of terrorism, respondents

in the Pakistanti PEW survey will change their attitudes concerning the legitimacy of terrorism based on

their income, education, and satisfaction levels. However, as Alexander Ritzman states as the source of

terrorism, possibly the major factor determining Pakistani attitudes towards terrorism is based on the level

of religious intensity.




    3. The Model
        Yt = 0 + 3X1 + 2 X2 + 3X3 + 4X4 + 5X5 + 6X6 + 7X7+ 8X8 + 9X9

    Y= Opinions of Suicide Bombing Against Westerners in Iraq

    X1= Age

    X2= Income

    X3= Education Level

    X4 = Gender

    X5 = Self-Identification

    X6 = Importance of Religion in one’s life

    X7 = Opinion over concerns of Islamic Extremism in Pakistan

    X8 = Opinion of Legitimacy concerning Suicide Terrorism Targeting Civilians in Pakistan

    X9 = Opinion that Islam should play a more fundamental role in the world




                                                                                                               4
    4. Data
    All data for this project was taken from the Pew Global Attitudes Spring 2005 17-Nation survey;

however for the purposes of this research paper, observations taken from 1225 Pakistani citizens were

analyzed. The dependent variable, opinion of suicide bombing against Westerners in Iraq, is an ordinal

variable. My primary independent variable – level of income – is also an ordinal variable. Controlling

independent variables include age (interval-ratio), level of education (ordinal), importance of Islam in the

world (ordinal), the legitimacy of terrorist attacks against civilians in Pakistan (ordinal), religious intensity

(nominal), gender (nominal), concerns over Islamic extremism (nominal), and self-identification

(nominal).




    5. Estimates and Empirical Findings
    Descriptive Statistics:

    The crux of my research is based on my dependent variable, opinion of suicide bombing against

Westerners in Iraq. As Figure 1 in Appendix 2 displays, roughly 70% of respondents to the dependent

variable (1050 observations in total) responded by saying that suicide bombing against Westerners in Iraq

is unjustifiable. However, for the purposes of this analysis, the author is most interested in the 30% that

stated it is justifiable. My dependent variable is an ordinal variable and the unit of measurement is

individual.

    Nine independent variables were chosen, definitions of each variable are provided in the “Model”

section above, to test the hypothesis and analyze their affects on the dependent variable. The independent

variables income (X2), education (X3), importance of religion in one’s life (X6), and the opinion that

Islam should play a more fundamental role in the world (X9) were chosen to directly test the hypothesis.

X2 and X3 provide data concerning income and education respectively, whereas X6 and X9 provide an

insight into how important religion is to the respondent, possibly an indicator of religious extremism which

could alter their response to the dependent variable; however, the author realizes there is a large

assumption that because people believe religion plays a large part in their lives, this does not mean they are
                                                                                                                5
extremists nor fundamentalists. Income was recoded into 4 groups with a mode of 1 and a mean of 1.8333,

meaning that most Pakistanis earn between 0-4,000 rupees. Education was recoded into 8 groups with a

mean of 1.8333 and mode of 1. X6 was recoded into 4 groups with a mode of 1, in which 1187 out of

1217 respondents stated they believe that religion is “Very Important” in their lives. X9 was recoded into

4 groups with a mean of 1.2706 and mode of 1; 78.73% of Pakistanis believe that Islam should play a

“very Important” role in the world. The data was recoded in order to minimize the affect of answers

certain respondents gave such as “not sure” or “refused to answer”. The missing data for all of the above-

mentioned variables is minimal.

    Five control independent variables include age, gender, self-identification, opinion over concerns of

Islamic extremism in Pakistan (X7), and opinion of legitimacy concerning suicide terrorism targeting

civilians in Pakistan (X8). The average age of Pakistanis is 34.92 years of age, gender is nearly split

evenly with 49% women and 51% men. Self-identification was recoded to 3 groups and relates to how

Pakistanis view themselves, respondents were asked to choose between “Pakistani”, “Muslim” or “Both

Equally”. 80.88% chose “Muslim” as is illustrated by the Mode of 2 and a mean of 2.0676. X7 was

recoded into 5 groups, with 27% stating that their primary concern over Islamic extremism in Pakistan is

that it will divide the country. X8 was recoded into 4 groups with a mean of 3.1636, 55% stated that

suicide bombing against civilians in Pakistan is “never justifiable”. However, for variables X7 and X8

nearly half of the data was missing, casting doubt on any future models or predictions.



    Bivariate Anlaysis:

    Bivariate analysis was run to test the significance of each independent variable against the dependent

variable. Only three of the original nine independent variables were proven to be significant, a fourth was

nearly significant. Gender, opinion over concerns of Islamic extremism in Pakistan, and opinion of

legitimacy concerning suicide terrorism targeting civilians in Pakistan are significant. Opinion that Islam

should play a more fundamental role in the world was almost significant.




                                                                                                              6
     Gender is a nominal variable, therefore the existence of the relationship is tested via Pr and the

strength of the relationship is tested using Chi-squared. Gender has a Pr = 0.000 and Chi-squared =

47.7464, indicating that gender is significant because the Pr =0.000 is less than the alpha =0.05

(Pr=0.000<0.05=a). The relationship gender has with the dependent variable is seemingly strong

according to Chi-squared; however, direction is unknown when dealing with nominal variables. Opinion

over concerns of Islamic extremism in Pakistan (X7) is also nominal and therefore tested the same way as

gender. X7 had a Pr = 0.008 and a Chi-squared = 13.7226, indicating that Opinion over concerns of

Islamic Extremism in Pakistan is significant (Pr=0.008<0.05=a), and has very weak strength because Chi-

squared is barely over 10. Opinion of legitimacy concerning suicide terrorism targeting civilians in

Pakistan (X8) is an ordinal variable; therefore, the existence of the relationship is tested via Z-score,

whereas the strength and direction of the association is tested by the PRE measure Gamma. X8 is

significant because its Z-score = -8.9944, which is less than +/- 1.96, meaning that it does not fall within

the critical region. X8 relationship to the dependent variable has moderate strength because Gamma=-

0.4857, indicating moderate strength (0.31-0.6) and negative association due to the negative sign in front

of Gamma. NOTE: the missing values of X7 and X8 make their significance questionable.


    Opinion that Islam should play a more fundamental role in the world (X9) is an ordinal variable and

therefore measured in the same way as X8. X9 is not significant but nearly so because its

Z-score = -1.9543 is in-between +/-1.96, however because it borders significance, the author decided to

include it in the pro-bit analysis.


    The results of the bivariate analysis are extremely intriguing. None of the previously thought factors

were proven to be significant. Income, education and religious intensity were not significant; therefore

both schools of thought concerning the causes of perception and acts of terrorism represented by Peter

Bergen and Alexander Ritzmann were proven to be false. Further implications of this study will be

analyzed in the next sub-section using Probit regression analysis.




                                                                                                               7
    Probit Regression Analysis, Marginal Effects:


    Three models were run using probit-regression analysis. Model 1 ran the dependent categorical

variable (opinion of suicide bombing against Westerners in Iraq) against two independent variables, gender

(X4) and opinion over concerns of Islamic extremism in Pakistan (X7). There are two categories within the

dependent variable, 0=Unjustified and 1=Justified. Model 1 states that only gender as an independent

variable is significant because the observed significance = 0.000 (<0.05), with a co-efficient of -0.1731.

Therefore, as gender moves from male to female, there is a 17% less likelihood that women will believe

suicide bombing against Westerners in Iraq is legitimate. Independent variable X7 was found to be

insignificant because its observed significance = 0.155 (>0.05). Model 1 had 579 observations with

pseudo R-squared = 0.03.


    Model 2 ran three independent variables with the dependent variable; X4, X7, and opinion of

legitimacy concerning suicide terrorism targeting civilians in Pakistan (X8). Gender proved to be

significant once again because the observed significance = 0.002 (<0.05), with a co-efficient of -0.1612.

X7 proved to be insignificant once again with an observed significance = 0.137 (>0.05). X8 proved to be

significant because its observed significance = 0.000 (<0.05), with a co-efficient of -0.0985. X8 was

recoded to 4 groups (often, sometimes, rarely, never justified); therefore as Pakistanis moved their opinion

of whether they believed suicide terrorism targeting civilians in Pakistan was “often justified” to

“sometimes justified”, the likelihood that they would believe that suicide bombing against Westerners in

Iraq is justified decreased by 9.85%. Consequently, if one person’s opinion shifted in X8’s independent

categories from “often justified” to “never justified”, they would be 29.55% more likely to believe that

suicide bombing against Westerners in Iraq is unjustified. Model 2 had 326 observations and a pseudo R-

squared = 0.0768.


    Model 3 included four independent variables; X4, X7, X8 and opinion that Islam should play a more

fundamental role in the world (X9). Gender remained significant due to the observed sig = 0.003 (<0.05),

with a co-efficient = -0.1575. X7 was insignificant again with an observed significance of 0.169 (>0.05).
                                                                                                             8
X8 proved to be significant once again with an observed significance = 0.000 (<0.05), with a co-efficient =

-0.1004. X9 proved to insignificant because its observed significance = 0.359 (>0.05). Model 3 had 320

observations with a pseudo R-squared = 0.0772.


    Model 1 and model 2 are the most appropriate models to analyze. Mode 1 has many more

observations than any other model, however still insufficient to make concrete statements. Model 2 has

more variables included and a higher pseudo R-squared, however the pseudo R-squared for all models is

extremely weak (though this is to be expected when using probit analysis). It should be noted that both

gender (X4) and opinion of legitimacy concerning suicide terrorism targeting civilians in Pakistan (X8) are

significant and stable throughout all models.




    6. Conclusion and policy options
    I failed to support my research hypothesis; however this does not mean that my hypothesis is out

wrong, simply that the data that I used in this analysis failed to support it in this context. The data

indicated no significant association between income, religious intensity or educational level and opinion of

whether suicide bombing against Westerners in Iraq is legitimate. However, gender and opinion of

terrorist activity against civilians in Pakistan did prove to be significant. The author presumes that women

are less likely to view suicide bombing against Westerners in Iraq as legitimate for a number of reasons.

First, studies have shown that women the world-over are more prone to settle their differences more

peacefully. Second, Pakistani women are left to deal with the consequences of suicide bombings, meaning

they must take over the role of father as well as become the sole income earner. Third, women have been

seen to have more open views of outside culture, allowing them to see violence as a very last resort. The

author believes that the independent variable opinion of terrorist activity against civilians in Pakistan (X8)

proved to be significant because if an individual believes that it is justifiable to kill native citizens in his

own country, he will certainly believe it is justifiable to kill Westerners in Iraq.


                                                                                                                   9
    Terrorism experts should not focus on level of education, religious intensity or income when

attempting to design counter-terrorism programs for Pakistan. Public diplomacy, more resources and

emphasis should be placed on educating men in Pakistan. Cross-cultural workshops and trainings could

provide great insight into both Pakistani male culture and slowly begin to change views of Westerners and

the use of terrorism in general. The increasing rise of terrorism as a legitimate use of force is increasing

around the world, billions upon billions of dollars are wasted on targeting seemingly uneducated, poor,

seemingly religious extremists. Practitioners and academics alike must unite to confront this myth, divert

critical funds and resources away from traditional stereotypes and apply what has been learned in this

paper to the real world before it is too late.




                                                                                                               10
References:
i
     Bergen, P. (2008, December 14). Safe At Home. New York Times.

ii
 Ritzmann, A. (2007, May 25). The Fairytale of the Poor and Angry Terrorists. American Institute for
Contemporary German Studies (AICGS) Advisor.




                                                                                                       11
         Appendix 1. Tables
         Table 1. Descriptive Statistics

         Dependent Ordinal Variable = Opinion of Justification of Suicide Bombing against Westerners in Iraq

             Variable                      Mean/ Mode           Standard          Observations      Missing Data
                                                                Deviation
Opinion of Justification of Suicide    Mean = 0.3085              0.4621              1050              175
 Bombing against Westerners in
               Iraq

          1= Justifiable
         0= Unjustifiable

           Age (18-90)                     Mean = 34.92          13.5109              1206               19

   Income Groups (in Rupees):           Mean =1.8333              0.9690              1086              139
                                         Mode = 1
           1= 0-4,000
         2= 4,001-7,000
         3= 7001-10,000
        4= 10,001-15,000

        Education Groups               Mean = 3.3767              2.1464              1221               4
                                        Mode = 1
    1= No Formal Education
     2= Can read and Write
     3= Less than 5 Classes
        4= 5-9 Classes
           5= Matric
        6= Intermediate
         7= Graduate
       8= Post-Graduate

             Gender                    Mean = 1.4979                                  1225               0
                                        Mode = 1
            Male = 1
           Female = 2
        Self-Identification            Mean = 2.0676                                  1198               27
                                        Mode = 2
           1= Pakistani
            2= Muslim
         3= Both Equally




                                                                                                               12
Importance of Religion in one’s            Mode = 1                            1217    8
             life
                                       (1187/1217)*100=
      1= Very Important                     97.53%
    2= Somewhat important
     3= Not too Important
    4= Not at all Important

Opinion over concerns of Islamic        Mean = 2.7855                1.2017    611    614
     Extremism in Pakistan               Mode = 4

        1= It is violent
2= Lead to people having fewer
  personal freedoms/choices
 3= It will divide the country
 4= It will set back economic
         development
       5= None of these

Opinion of legitimacy concerning        Mean = 3.1636                1.0881    660    565
   suicide terrorism targeting           Mode = 4
      civilians in Pakistan

      1= Often Justified
    2= Sometimes Justified
      3= Rarely Justified
      4= Never Justified

Opinion that Islam should play a        Mean = 1.2706                0.5747    1101   124
 more fundamental role in the            Mode = 1
             world

      1= Very Important
    2= Somewhat important
     3= Not too important
    4= Not at all important

        Data source: Data are taken from the 2005 PEW Global Attitudes Data.




                                                                                            13
       Table 2. Bivariate Analysis

        Dependent Ordinal Variable = Opinion of Justification of Suicide Bombing against Westerners in Iraq

Independent Variable (LOM)           Observations      Gamma/ Ttest/Chi-Squared              Interpretation

                                                                 (Sig)
             Age                          1035               (T = -1.7503)                 Fail to Reject Null
       (Interval-Ratio)
           Income                          932               G = -0.0015                   Fail to Reject Null
          (Ordinal)
                                                             (Z = -0.0254)

          Education                       1,047               G = 0.0026                   Fail to Reject Null
          (Ordinal)
                                                             (Z= 0.0553)

           Gender                         1,050            Chi-2 = 47.7464                    Reject Null
          (Nominal)                                         G = -0.4480

                                                             (Pr = 0.000)

      Self-Identification                 1,048             Chi-2 = 2.1919                 Fail to Reject Null
          (Nominal)                                          G = 0.0089

                                                             (Pr = 0.334)

  Importance of Religion in               1,046             Chi-2 = 1.8628                 Fail to Reject Null
          one’s life                                         G= 0.0575
         (Nominal)
                                                             (Pr = 0.601)

   Opinion over concerns of                579             Chi-2 = 13.7226                    Reject Null
Islamic Extremism in Pakistan                               G = -0.0641
         (Nominal)
                                                             (Pr = 0.008)

    Opinion of legitimacy                  592               G = -0.4857                      Reject Null
 concerning suicide terrorism
targeting civilians in Pakistan                              (Z = -8.9944)
           (Ordinal)

Opinion that Islam should play             982               G = -0.1583               Fail to Reject Null (though
a more fundamental role in the                                                                  very close)
            world                                            (Z = -1.9543)
          (Ordinal)
        Data source: Data are taken from the Spring 2005 PEW Global Attitudes Survey

       Bold text indicates statistical significance.




                                                                                                                     14
     Table3 . Probit Regression Analysis, Marginal Effects

     Dependent Variable = Opinion of Justification of Suicide Bombing against Westerners in Iraq

   Independent Variables                Model 1                    Model 2               Model 3


           Gender                        -0.1731                    -0.1612              -0.1575

                                         (0.000)                    (0.002)               (0.003)

  Opinion over concerns of               -0.0223                    -0.0310              -0.0293
   Islamic Extremism in
         Pakistan                        (0.155)                    (0.137)               (0.169)

    Opinion of legitimacy                                           -0.0985              -0.1004
 concerning suicide terrorism
targeting civilians in Pakistan                                     (0.000)               (0.000)

  Opinion that Islam should                                                              -0.0411
play a more fundamental role
        in the world                                                                      (0.359)

        Observations                       579                        326                  320


     Pseudo R-Squared                    0.0300                     0.0768                0.0772



     Data source: Data are taken from the Spring 2005 PEW Global Attitudes Survey
     Bold text indicates statistical significance




                                                                                                    15
Appendix 2. Figures

Figure 1.
         Suicide Bombing Against Westerners in Iraq Opinion
                                              Kris White




                                 30.86%




                                                            69.14%




                                     unjustifiable            justifiablie
 Source: Spring 2005, PEW Global Attitudes




Figure 2.

                                                Income
                                               Kris White



                                              9.392%


                                    11.79%


                                                               47.24%




                                     31.58%




                    rs. 4000 or less per month                   rs. 4001 to rs. 7000
                    rs. 7001 to rs. 10,000                       rs. 10,001 to rs. 15,000
 Source: 2005 PEW Global Attitudes Survey



                                                                                            16
Figure 3.


                                                    Level of Education
                                                              Kris White
                 1.5
                       1
     Density



                  .5
                       0




                           0                   2                   4                 6                8
                               d5pak. what is the highest level of education that you have completed?
                 Source: 2005 PEW Global Attitudes Survey




Figure 4.


               Suicide Bombing Against Civilians in Pakistan Opinion
                                                            Kris White



                                                                   13.33%



                                                                             12.27%



                                            55.3%


                                                                           19.09%




                                         often justified                   sometimes justified
                                         rarely justified                  never justified
         Source: Spring 2005, PEW Global Attitudes




                                                                                                          17
Figure 5.


                                  Role of Islam in the World
                                                Kris White


                                                  1.181%
                                                3.088%

                                       17.35%




                                                             78.38%




                              very important                    somewhat important
                              not too important                 not at all important
    Source: Spring 2005, PEW Global Attitudes




Figure 6.


                               Islamic Extremism Concerns
                                                Kris White


                                                4.583%
                                                           20.95%


                                    28.97%



                                                                17.68%




                                                27.82%




            it is violent                        will lead to people having fewer personal freedoms/choices
            it will divide the country           it will set back economic development
            none of these (volunteered) (do not read)
   Source: Spring 2005, PEW Global Attitudes




                                                                                                          18
Appendix 3. Data Description

Figure 1.
      A list of the questions used in this analysis is presented below:

Q18      Do you think of yourself first as a [name of country’s people, such as Jordanian, Moroccan or
Indonesian] or first as a Muslim?
Q23      How important to you is it that Islam plays a more important and influential role in the WORLD
than it does now—very important, somewhat important, not too important or not at all important?
Q26      Which of the following concerns you most about Islamic extremism in our country today?
Q29      Some people think that suicide bombing and other forms of violence against civilian targets IN
OUR COUNTRY are justified in order to defend Islam from its enemies. Other people believe that, no
matter what the reason, this kind of violence is never justified. Do you personally feel that this kind of
violence is often justified to defend Islam, sometimes justified, rarely justified, or never justified?
Q31      What about suicide bombing carried out against Americans and other Westerners in Iraq? Do you
personally believe that this is justifiable or not justifiable?
D1       Gender
D2       How old were you at your last birthday?
D4       How important is religion in your life – very important, somewhat important, not too important,
or not at all important?
D5PAK What is the highest level of education that you have completed?
D6PAK Here is a list of incomes. Which of these does your household fall into counting, all wages,
salaries, pensions and other incomes that come in?




                                                                                                       19

				
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