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Afghan NGO Safety Office (ANSO) Quarterly Data Report 2011 Q4

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Afghan NGO Safety Office (ANSO) Quarterly Data Report 2011 Q4 Powered By Docstoc
					                                                                                                1st Jan - 31st Dec 2011
           The Afghanistan NGO Safety Office                                                    ANSO and our donors accept no liability for
                                                                                                  the results of any activity conducted or
                                                                                                    omitted on the basis of this report.
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A N S O Q U A R T E R LY D ATA R E P O R T                                                                     (c) INSO 2011




Q.4 2011

  SUMMARY & ASSESSMENT
  The year was remarkable for being the one in which the US/NATO leadership finally acknowledged the unwinnable
  nature of its war with the Taliban and started to take concrete measures to disengage (both psychologically and
  physically) under the narrative of ‘transition’ – the first real change in the structure of the conflict since it began.
  That this realization came as a result of domestic political and economic pressures – rather than from consideration
  of the impact of the ongoing war on Afghan civilians – does not lessen its significance in ushering in the new strate-
  gic reality which will come to define Afghanistan for the coming generations.

  The basic contours of that reality are already visible and bear a striking resemblance to previous periods of instabil-
  ity. Kabul and the country to the North and West is dominated by a fragile alliance of former Mujahedeen groups
  whose claim to represent any constituency broader than their own political and ethnic loyalists is weak. Corruption,
  poverty and factional violence remain endemic albeit at a less conspicuous level and - although there has been no-
  table personal diversification - the group remains largely dependent on rapidly waning foreign aid to sustain its lar-
  gesse and avoid internal conflict. On the other side, another loose alliance of religiously (and occasionally politically)
  motivated opposition groups make daily gains in the South and East using a combination of terror, faith and guile to
  capitalize on public resentment with Government and win supporters. Now, as then, this leadership too (barely)
  struggles to control the horrifying violence it unleashes and is itself instrumentalised by the foreign powers it de-
  pends on for resources. We all know how this story ended the last time.

  Although some analysts see an almost inevitable return to the chaos of the early/mid 90’s after 2014, we – perhaps
  optimistically – believe that things can be different this time. First, we do not foresee the wholesale disintegration
  of Government (in to factional war) any time soon. Besides offering access to some of the US$ 6-8 billion projected
  for annual security funding, membership of the internationally recognized government confers a highly valued ‘soft
  power’ that provides a strong incentive to stay engaged. Secondly, while we acknowledge the inevitable return to
  power of the IEA in some areas, we see no reason to conclude that they will automatically parlay this in to an effort
  to retake the whole country, especially once the underlying justification of the ‘struggle against foreign occupation’
  has been removed. A key factor here though will be the difference between what the Taliban wants to be, and what
  it is allowed to be. We expect they are discussing it now, and we will all just have to wait for their answer.

  That Afghanistan has arrived at this point again is perhaps a fitting obituary to the seemingly ill-fated US/NATO mili-
  tary mission that - far from being the ‘good’ or ‘necessary’ war - has in the end proven itself to be an aimless war,
  hopelessly neglected by its leaders until it was too late to change. The sad reality reflected in this report, and all
  the others we have produced over the years, is that the only coherent strategy the international community ever
  had in Afghanistan ...was the one to leave.

  Nic Lee, Kabul, Afghanistan

  ANSO Director, 2006-2012
The views expressed in this report remain the sole re-
sponsibility of the author.
AN SO Q U AR TER L Y D A TA R E PO R T             Page 2




                                         Part 1.

                                    NGO TRENDS
AN SO Q U AR TER L Y D A TA R E PO R T                                                                                                                                                                                       Page 3


  1 . 1 G e n e r a l N G O I n c i d e n t Tr e n d s

    ANSO: Total security incidents affecting NGOs per month, all authors, countrywide 2007-2011


                                                                                            28
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               26
                                                                                                                                                     24                                                                                                             24
                                                                                       23        23
                                                                                                      22


                                                                                                                                                                                                                     18 18                                                         18
                                                                                                                        17                 17                                                                   17
                                              16                                                                                                                   16                                                        16
                                                                                                                             15                                                                            15
                                                                                                                                                                                         14
                       13        13 13                                        13                                                                                                                                                                13
                                         12             12            12 12                                                                                             12                                                                 12                                 12
             11                                    11                                                      11                                                 11                                                                                     11                                 11
        10        10        10                                   10                                                                   10        10                                                10                                  10                  10             10
                                                                                                                                                                                              9
                                                                                   8                            8
                                                             7                                                                                                               7       7                                            7
                                                                                                                    6                                                                                                                                                                        6
                                                                                                                                  5                       5
                                                                                                                                                                                 3
                                                                                                                                                                                                       2
    OCT




    OCT




    OCT




    OCT




    OCT
     JAN


    APR




     JAN


    APR




     JAN


    APR




     JAN


    APR




     JAN


    APR
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    MAR
    AUG


    NOV




    AUG


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    AUG


    NOV
    JUN




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    MAY




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    MAY




    MAY
      JUL




      JUL




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      JUL
     FEB




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     FEB
    DEC




    DEC




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    DEC
     SEP




     SEP
     SEP




     SEP




     SEP

                            2007                                                   2008                                                    2009                                                   2010                                                    2011


  ANSO: NGO incidents 2011, by author
                                                                                                            ANSO: Total NGO security incidents per year, by author, 2007 - 2011

                                     IMF
                                      9%                                                                                                                                             AOG               Criminals             IMF
                                                                                                                                                     112

                                                                                                                                                                                         102                                                              100
              Criminals
                 30%                                                                                                                                                                                                    90
                                                                                                                             84
                                                                         AOG
                                                                         61%




                                                                                                                                                              60
                                                                                                                    53
                                                                                                                                                                                                  46                                                                 48

  At 163, the total number of NGO inci-                                                   39

  dents has grown by 20% over 2010
  (136) with 61% attributed to AOG,
                                                                                                           15
  down from 66% in 2010. However the
                                                                                              7
  annual count does not show any nota-                              4
                                                       1                         1
  ble deviation from longer term trends
                                                  2007         2008         2009         2010         2011
  (top). The number of incidents caused
  by all authors grew (above right) although those caused by the IMF grew the most and accounted for 9%
  of all incidents this year (5% in 2010). The data continues to support to the conclusion that violence
  against NGOs is seasonal, circumstantial and collateral in nature rather than suggesting any pattern of
  deliberate or targeted attack. There remain notable localized exceptions, however, where NGOs are in-
  deed deliberately killed or injured in premeditated assaults.
AN SO Q U AR TER L Y D A TA R E PO R T                                                                     Page 4


  1.2 NGO Incident Location

                                                 ANSO: NGO incidents per province, 2010 vs 2011     The chart compares the gross
                                                                                                    number of NGO incidents,
                                                                                   2011    2010
                                                                                                    caused by all actors (AOG/
        URUZGAN     0
                        1                                                                           ACG/IMF), occurring in each
       SAMANGAN     0
                                         5
                                                                                                    province for 2010 and 2011.
        NURISTAN        1
                        1                                                                           Provinces not listed had no
                        1
        LAGHMAN         1                                                                           recorded incident in either
         BAGHLAN        1
                                             6                                                      year. A number of observa-
         BAMYAN     0
                        1                                                                           tions can be made:
          GHAZNI            2
                        1                                                                              Incidents occurred in >80%
                            2
          KUNDUZ                3                                                                   of provinces in both years giv-
       KANDAHAR                 3                                                                   ing a good indication of the
                                                           9
        HELMAND     0
                                3                                                                   size of the NGO footprint and
          TAKHAR                3                                                                   suggesting that it has not re-
                                         5
          KAPISA                3                                                                   cently reduced.
                            2
           FARAH        1
                                    4
                                                                                                       Faryab, Balkh and Ghor are
        SAR-E PUL           2
                                    4                                                               the only provinces to be count-
         JAWZJAN        1
                                    4                                                               ed in the top five in both years
         PARWAN                     4                                                               with the per capita density of
                            2
                                             6
                                                                                                    NGOs there undoubtedly con-
         WARDAK                                        8
                                                                                                    tributing to this fact. In Balkh,
           KHOST                                   7
                            2                                                                       incidents are mainly classed as
           HERAT                                       8
                                                                                               18   ‘collateral’ while in the other
          PAKTYA                                       8                                            two AOG commanders have
                        1
      BADAKHSHAN                    4
                                                           9                                        taken a deliberately hostile
           KABUL                                               10                                   stance towards NGOs in an
                                                           9
          KUNAR                                                     11                              effort to establish their legiti-
                                                           9
                                                                    11
                                                                                                    macy and dominance. At the
           BALKH                                                              13
                                                                                                    time of writing these stand as
           LOGAR                                                    11
                                         5                                                          outliers to the norm.
         FARAYAB                                                         12
                                                                                          17
           GHOR                                                                     16              
                                                                                          Severe escalation of the
                                                                    11
                                                                          17
                                                                                     underlying conflict in RC-EAST
      NANGARHAR                       6
                                                                                     is visible in the NGO incident
                                                                                     trends for Nangahar - which
        moved from 9th to 1st place (+183%) due to a rise in collateral damage from AOG/IMF conflict in the
        east and inter-tribal conflict in the south - as well as in the substantial escalations in Khost (+250%)
        and Paktya (+700%) where IMF and AOG pursue intense campaigns.
       At the opposite end of the spectrum, NGO incidents have fallen dramatically in Baghlan (-83%) con-
        sistent with the drop in AOG attack rate noted after introduction of the Afghan Local Police (ALP) but
        also following a reduction of road movement in the province after a difficult 2010.
AN SO Q U AR TER L Y D A TA R E PO R T                                                                                                        Page 5


  1.3 NGO incident types

   ANSO: Types of AOG attack on NGO, 2010 vs 2011
                                                                                               ANSO: Detailed AOG attack types, 2010 vs 2011
          2010        2011
                                     18
                                                                                                    2011       2010
                                17



                                                                                                    Targeted School Attack (all types)
                                                                                                                                              2
                     12
                                                                                                                                                          5
      9    9              9                        9                        9

                                              7             7
                                                                                                     Targeted Clinic Attack (all types)
                                                                                                                                              2
                                                                                          6
                                                                      5                                                                                           7
                                                                4                    4



                                                                                                                        SAF at person
                                                                                                                                                          5
                                                                                                                                                  3


                                                                                                                        SAF at vehicle
                                                                                                                                                  3
                                                                                                                                                              6
   ANSO: Types of criminal attack against NGO, 2010 vs
                         2011                                                                  Accidental Compound Attack (all types)
                                                                                                                                                                  7
      2010     2011                                                                                                                                           6


                                                                                                Targeted Compound Attack (all types)
                                                                                                                                                                      8
                 21
                                                                                                                                                              6


                                                                                                                   Roadside Robbery
                                                                                                                                          0
          14
                                                                                                                                                              6
                                                                12
                                                       11

                                                                                                                       Accidental IED
                                                                                                                                                      4
                                                                                                                                                  3
                                4         4                                     4
                                                                                     3

                                                                                                                         Targeted IED
                                                                                                                                              2
                                                                                                                                                      4
          Robbery               Threats                SAF/RPG                  Beating


   ANSO: Types of IMF incidents targeting NGO, 2010 vs                                        The bulk categorization of incidents by type and author (left)
                          2011
      2010     2011                                                                           shows minor growth in most AOG attack types, notable
                                                                                              growth in criminal armed robberies and a disturbing new
                                      10                                                      trend of aggressive IMF raids on NGO clinics (bottom left). The
                                                                                              more nuanced disaggregation of serious AOG attacks (above)
                                                                                              shows that NGO compound attacks remain roughly half acci-
                                                                                              dental/ half deliberate; that targeted IED strikes are decreas-
          4
                                                                                              ing while accidental strikes are increasing; that small arms fire
                                                                3                             is more common against individuals (target killing) than it is
                 2                                     2
                                                                                              against vehicles (at a VCP for example) and that AOG attacks
                                                                                1
                                0                                                    0        that specifically target NGO operated schools or clinics have
    Arrest & Release          Clinic Search       SAF- Ground Force       Mortar/Missile      reduced since last year.
AN SO Q U AR TER L Y D A TA R E PO R T                                                                          Page 6


  1 . 4 N G O A b d u c t i o n / D e t e n t i o n Tr e n d s

 Detention of NGO staff grew by a gross 220% this                         ANSO: NGO staff abducted/detained by AOG, 2008 - 2011
 year, however, as 140 of the 2011 count occurred                       250

 in just five cases of mass detention (all deminers)
 the adjusted growth rate is closer to 20%.                             200


 The main purpose of detention remains infor-
                                                                        150
 mation gathering and accordingly most victims
 were unconditionally released, often in under
                                                                        100
 48hrs. Unusually however, eight persons were
 killed in captivity this year - in Ghor, Logar, Farah
                                                                          50
 and Faryab - with causes assessed to range from
 personal enmity to breakdowns in AOG chain of
                                                                           0
 command. We are concerned that such cases will                                     2008           2009            2010           2011
 become more common as foreign fighters swell

  ANSO: NGO staff abduction/detention per
  province, Jan-Dec 2011
  (#persons/# cases)


                                                     JAWZJAN     BALKH          KUNDUZ
                                                                                                  BADAKSHAN
                                                         3/
                                         23/9            2         SAMANGAN
                                         FARYAB                                   BAGHLAN

                               BADGHIS                                           3/
                                                                                  PARWAN                   16
                                                                 BAMYAN          1      3/
                                                                                      KABUL                /4
                                                                              3/
                                                                          WARDAK        2            3/
            HERAT      8/                     2/                                              NANGAHAR
                                                                              2      2/              1
                       4                 GHOR 2
                                                     DAYKUNDI                        2
                                                                       GHAZNI            34/3
                                                                                            KHOST
                                                                       57/2                    26/4
                                                     URUZGAN
            FARAH                                              ZABUL             PAKTIKA
            40/4
                                   HELMAND
                     NIMROZ
                                                  KANDAHAR
                                                                                                 Concentration of cases has
                                                                                                   shifted from North (in
                                                                                                  2010) to mainly East this
                                                                                                 year with multiple cases of
                                                                                                 mass detention of deminers
                                                                                                       by foreign AOG
AN SO Q U AR TER L Y D A TA R E PO R T                                                                                            Page 7


  1.5 NGO Fatalities & Injuries

     ANSO: Aid worker deaths by cause, 2010 vs 2011                                                                             Nationality of Deceased
                                                                                                                               Nationality of Deceased
                                                                                      2011    2010                              Afghan National    Foreign
                                                                                                                               Afghan National   Foreign
                                                                                                                                29             31
                                                                                                                               29             31
                  In Captivity/Detention                                                               8
                                                  0
                                                                                                                                         8
                                                                                                7                                    8                      0
                    Individual Shooting                                                                                                                 0
                                                                                  4
                                                                                  4                                               2010             2011
    Collateral (AOG ground assault)                                                                                              2010             2011
                                                  0

                               IED Strike                                 3
                                                                                                                                                   16

            Ambush/Group Shooting                                         3
                                                                                                                          12

                         Accidental Mine                           2
                                                  0

                          IMF Operation                            2
                                                                                  4

              IMF Escalation of Force                       1
                                                  0

                    Collateral (AOG IDF)                    1
                                                            1


     ANSO: Aid workers killed/injured, 2007-2011                                                     The murder of eight detainees was enough
                             Aid worker killed               Aid worker injured                      to make it the leading cause of NGO death
                                                                                                     this year (above) however the assessed mo-
                                                                          45
                                                                                                     tivation in each case was sufficiently differ-
                                                                          37
                                                                                         34
                                                                                         31
                                                                                                     ent to refrain from calling it a new ‘trend’ at
                                 30
                                 27
                                                                                                     this stage.
                                                       19
              15
                                                                                                     Targeted killing of an individual was the se-
              6                                                                                      cond leading cause , and growing, with cases
           2007             2008                 2009                  2010           2011
                                                                                                     ranging from murder of females for involve-
                                                                                                     ment in education, personal family disputes
    ANSO: Total conflict related civilian fatalties (inc. Aid workers)                               through to murder for political statement.
    3000                                                                                             The data also shows a sharp reduction in IED
                                                                        2534
    2500
                                                                                      2427           related deaths, most likely as a result of less
                                                      2082                                           NGO road travel. Collateral death in AOG or
    2000                         1812
                  1528
                                                                                                     IMF attack remains a concern.
    1500
                                                                                                     There were no deaths of foreign aid workers
    1000
                                                                                                     in 2011 (above right) and a nominal increase
     500                                                                                             in Afghan national fatalities. Overall death
       0                                                                                             rate has dropped slightly (mid-left) con-
                  2007           2008                 2009              2010          2011           sistent with total civilian fatality trends (left).
AN SO Q U AR TER L Y D A TA R E PO R T             Page 8




                                         Part 2.

                  State of the Conflict
AN SO Q U AR TER L Y D A TA R E PO R T                                                                                                       Page 9


  2 . 1 AO G I n i t ia t e d At t a c k s
          ANSO: AOG initiated attacks per month, against all target groups, 2007-2011
          (Count includes AOG kinetic operations only such as small arms, RPG, IED, indirect fire and suicide attack)
                                                                                                                                                            1714
   1800
           ANSO: Total AOG attacks per year, 2007-2011
             ANSO: Total AOG attacks per year, 2007-2011
          16000                                                                                                                       1541
   1600     16000                                           13983
          14000                                               13983
                                                  12252
            14000
          12000                                     12252
   1400     12000
          10000
            10000                       7445
           8000
                                          7445
   1200      8000
           6000               5239                                                                   1093
             6000               5239
           4000     3448
             4000     3448
   1000    2000
             2000
              0
                0   2007      2008      2009       2010     2011
    800
                      2007      2008      2009       2010     2011           634
                                        Year                                                                                                        768
                                           Year
    600

                             405
                                                                                                                        523
    400
                                                                                   381

    200


      0
          MAY




          MAY




          MAY




          MAY




          MAY
          APR




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           FEB




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          OCT
          OCT




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          DEC




           SEP



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           SEP




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          AUG
          MAR




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          MAR
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            JUL




            JUL




            JUL
                          2007                                        2008                    2009                            2010                         2011


  AOG initiated attacks grew by 14% over last year and
                                                                                                        ANSO: Growth in AOG attacks over previous year
  demonstrated an enhanced operational tempo - with
                                                                                                        70%                                          65%
  64% of all operations occurring before the end of July
                                                                                                        60%
                                                                                                                        52%
  (compared to 52% in 2010) - and then trailing off sharp-                                              50%
                                                                                                                                     42%
  ly once OP BADR ended over Ramadan.                                                                   40%

                                                                                                        30%
  The tactical portfolio remained consistent with 2010,
                                                                                                        20%                                                        14%
  with close range engagements (SAF/RPG) making up
                                                                                                        10%
  the bulk of operations (55%) and IED/IDF operations at
                                                                                                            0%
  44%. Suicide attacks remained at just 1% of the total                                                             2008             2009           2010           2011
  yet caused close to 70% more fatalities this year, includ-
                                                                                                                                             Year
  ing roughly 400 Afghan civilians (230 in 2010).

  Throughout the year ISAF made a number of statements claiming a 3% reduction in attacks between Jan-
  Aug when compared with 2010. We are not in a position to evaluate their data but, obviously, we do not
  agree with their finding and advise NGOs to simply ignore it as practical security advice - a use for which it
  was likely never intended in any case. We find their suggestion that the insurgency is waning to be a dan-
  gerous political fiction that should be given no consideration in NGO risk assessment for the coming year.

  Interestingly, our data does find that this years 14% growth rate (what you might call the IEA profit mar-
  gin) is substantially lower than previous years (above right) suggesting that there has indeed been some
  serious reduction in the effort that the that the IEA is putting in. Whether this reduction has been forced
  upon them by ISAF or whether they consciously chose it - on the calculus that there is no point sprinting
  to the finish if everyone else has dropped out of the race - is unknown to us and, we suspect, to ISAF.
AN SO Q U AR TER L Y D A TA R E PO R T                                                                                                           Page 10


  2.2 Attack Ra te Mapping

    ANSO: AOG attack volumes, per province at Q.4 2011
    (Please note this is an incident rate map that enables comparison of areas seeing similar attack rates. It is not a
    threat map and a lack of incidents can indicate AOG dominance (see Nuristan). Areas shared green are not
    implied to be safe, particularly those provinces bordered by highly insecure areas .

                                                                                                                                   BADAKSHAN
                                                                                                                                   57
                                                                      JAWZJAN 111                             KUNDUZ
                                                                                       BALKH 144              205       TAKHAR
                                                                                                                        34

                                                                                       RC-  SAMANGAN
                                                      FARYAB 323

                                                                        SAR-E-PUL
                                                                        111
                                                                                       North12                BAGHLAN 81



                                        BADGHIS 407
                                                                                                              PARWAN KAPISA
                                                                                                              109       121
                                                                                        BAMYAN                                 LAGHMAN
                                                                                        10                         KABUL 115   220
                                                                                                   WARDAK 388                    NANGAHAR      RC-Capital
                                  RC-
               HERAT 317
                                                                                                                                 551
                                                      GHOR 107
                                                                        DAYKUNDI 18


                                  West                                                                  RC-
                                                                                                GHAZNI 1679
                                                                                                                           KHOST
                                                                                                                           1106


                                                                      URUZGAN
                                                                      404
                                                                                                        East                                                Extreme
                      FARAH 209
                                                                       RC-          ZABUL 479
                                                                                                         PAKTIKA 1193



                           NIMROZ 104
                                            HELMAND 2416
                                                                       South                                                                                High
                                                                 KANDAHAR 1285


                           RC-South                                                                                                                         Moderate


                           West                                                                                                                             Low


                                                                                                                                                            Negligible




  The map shows the final AOG initiated attack count, per province, for the whole year overlaid with ISAF
  Regional Command divisions. As noted in previous reports, the establishment of a ’second front’ in Loya
  Paktya/Ghazni (circled) has clearly been one of the main results of AOG Operation Badr this year. Be-
  sides targeting IMF/ANSF, AOG have conducted an extensive campaign to undermine the capacity of lo-
  cal government with more than 600 attacks on District Administration Centers and approximately 40 ci-
  vilian government workers - including district governors - killed in targeted assassinations. The campaign
  has impacted NGOs in terms of increased collateral damage and the dramatic increase in detention/
  abduction noted on p.6. In comparison to the other epicenter of the conflict (Helmand/Kandahar)
  fighting in these areas (as it is in Kunar/Nuristan) is increasingly characterized by a high volume of cross
  border combatants. The question of whether these fighters are really under the effective command &
  control of the IEA leadership will become increasingly critical as the latter moves to formulate a political
  settlement. In a worst case scenario, the current over reliance on foreign support could backfire and turn
  the area in to something of a no mans land - defying effective control by either IEA or GIROA - and
  providing a tactical safe haven to beleaguered combatants from either side of the border.
AN SO Q U AR TER L Y D A TA R E PO R T                                                Page 11


  2.3 Comparati ve Attack Ra tes Per Pro vi nce

  PROVINCE              Total AOG OPS 2010   Total AOG OPS 2011        Actual Change % Change
  BAMYAN                              4                10                       6            150%
  HELMAND                           1408              2416                   1008             72%




                                                                                                         Above Average
  BADAKHSHAN                         35                57                     22              63%
  JAWZJAN                            75                111                    36              48%
  ZABUL                              353               479                    126             36%
  SAR-E PUL                          82                111                    29              35%
  PAKTIKA                            898              1193                    295             33%
  PARWAN                             84                109                    25              30%
  GHOR                               84                107                    23              27%
  PAKTYA                             490               608                    118             24%
  HERAT                              258               317                    59              23%
  KHOST                              910              1106                    196             22%
  BADGHIS                            358               407                    49              14%
  FARAH                              257               290                    33              13%
  LAGHMAN                            196               220                    24              12%




                                                                                                         Average
  URUZGAN                            363               404                    41              11%
  NURISTAN                           64                71                       7             11%
  KANDAHAR                          1167              1285                    118             10%
  FARYAB                             296               323                    27              9%
  NANGARHAR                          505               551                    46              9%
  GHAZNI                            1544              1679                    135             9%
  NIMROZ                             109               104                     -5             -5%
  KAPISA                             129               121                     -8             -6%
  KUNAR                             1468              1280                   -188            -13%
  LOGAR                              265               226                    -39            -15%




                                                                                                         Reduction
  BALKH                              183               144                    -39            -21%
  DAYKUNDI                           23                18                      -5            -22%
  KABUL                              151               115                    -36            -24%
  WARDAK                             512               383                   -129            -25%
  KUNDUZ                             355               205                   -150            -42%
  SAMANGAN                           21                12                      -9            -43%
  BAGHLAN                            222               81                    -141            -64%
  TAKHAR                             144               34                    -110            -76%

  Table shows the total AOG attack operations per provinces for 2010 and 2011. The ‘average ‘referred to is
  the countrywide growth rate of 14%. That Baghlan and Takhar occupy the bottom two slots, with sub-
  stantial reductions over last year, is credited to the impact of the ALP although it is unclear whether this
  also accounts for the 37% increase in armed crime (far above the 29% national average) in those two
  provinces. Of nine Tranche II transition provinces, five (Daykondi, Nimroz, Takhar, Balkh, Samangan) saw
  less attacks than last year with the others all falling in to the ‘above average’ growth category. At the
  higher end, the attack rate in Helmand grew substantially as did in Paktika, Paktya and Khost (p.9).
AN SO Q U AR TER L Y D A TA R E PO R T                                                                               Page 12




                                                                       Acronyms:

                                 IEA - Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (Taliban)

                                 AOG- Armed Opposition Groups (specifically Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan
                                 (Taliban); Haqqani Network and Hezb-i-Islami Hekmatyar (HiH)

                                 IMF - International Military Forces (specifically ISAF, USFOR-A, PRTs and SOF)

                                 ANSF - Afghan National Security Forces (mostly Police & Army)

                                 IED - Improvised Explosive Device (home made bomb)

                                 IDF—Indirect Fire (rockets, mortars)

                                 CAS - Close Air Support (airstrike)

                                 EOF - Escalation of Force (shooting a vehicle at a check post that fails to stop)

                                 SAF - Small Arms Fire (from a machine gun such as AK47)




                                REPORT ENDS
                                F o r fu r t her i nf o r m a tio n
                           d i r ec t or. afg @ n g os a fe t y. o r g


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