the presentation of the lecture by MichaelCoughlin

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									Climate Resilience,
Energy Independence and
Sustainability
-The Role of the Existing Built
Environment
M J Kelly, Chief Scientific Adviser
Presentation to UCL 19 March 2009
                                                CONTENTS

                  From 2010 to 2050

            ‘FROM THE INDUSTRIAL AGE
             TO THE ECOLOGICAL AGE’
                                          P Head, Arup



[1]: Introduction: The Triple Challenge

[2]: The Scale of Challenge

[3]: Possible National Actions

[4]: Recent HMG Actions

[5]: Summary
                                                         2
                                   [1] The Triple Challenge

     UK now a net importer of Energy, and so energy
      security/independence is a vital national interest.

   The basic Climate change science is in, and the future
  scenarios are unpleasant – we must adapt to and mitigate
                   against future climates.

   The UK indulges in 3-planet living (US=11!), which is
                absolutely not Sustainable.
       ___________________________________

(1)The ECS triple challenge will be met or missed in existing
        buildings, where the solutions are common.
      (2) Water will cause the first international crisis  3
                    The Scale of the Challenge:
                     (2.1) Energy Consumption



Between 1973 and 2004




                                              4
                                     Energy use in Buildings


Energy consumption in buildings by method of ventilation:
Natural 300kWh/m2/year Mechanical 750kWh/m2/year

In naturally ventilated buildings, heat is lost/gained through
the fabric and by infiltration, with artificial lighting an
important component.
In mechanically ventilated buildings one adds fans, pumps
and refrigeration consumption.

Less fabric loss by improving U-value of building envelope.
Infiltration tested by air pressure tests on ‘sealed’ building.
Air conditioning not strictly necessary in UK now, but may
become so.
                                                              5
                                 The Scale of the Challenge:
              (2.2) Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation


Carbon reduction and the built environment:

Five initial facts
• HMG is committed to an 80% reduction in carbon
  emissions by 2050
• 45% of all present carbon emissions come from
  existing buildings, with 27% from homes
• 87% of existing buildings will still be here in 2050
• CLG is the lead department of HMG concerning
  the built environment: planning, building codes,
  building regulations,...
• We must work with OGDs on existing buildings
                                                           6
Estimated sectoral economic
 mitigation potential in 2030
        (IPPC4- May 07)




                                7
                                          The built environment has a significant
                            impact on emissions and water consumption

Carbon emissions from energy use in                            Water use in homes accounts for over half
buildings account for 45% of UK                                 of public water consumption in England
emissions; our homes 27%                                                       and Wales

                  Agriculture, 1%                                                    Other , 2%
                                    Domestic 27%
                                                                    Customer leakage, 6%
                                      Domestic, 27%

Transport, 33%
                                                            Company leakage, 17%




                                                                                                  Domestic, 52%
                                           Commercial and
                                           public buildings,
                                                 13%
                                    Industrial buildings,        Non-domestic, 23%
          Industrial
                                             5%
       processes, 22%


                                                                                                     8
       Buildings almost equal to transport and industry together
                       UK Housing Stock
Much of it is old, and not well insulated.




                                         9
Profile of English Housing Stock




                             10
                        Further data on English housing stock.


• During 1900-1998, housing stock grew from 7M to 22M
• Building peaked in 1968 with 410K, but down to 141K in 1999.
• Age: 62% of homes before 1965, and 35% before 1939.

• Semi-detached housing at 4.9M is 31% of total stock, followed by low-
rise flats and detached houses.

• During 20th century
   • urbanisation went from 77% to 89% of the population
       • small change, cf France: 59% urban in 1954 to 74% in 1990
   • owner occupiers from 10% to 68% of homes
   • private renting down from 89% to 10%.

• In 1999 18% of homes rented from local authority, and 5% from housing
         association.
                                                                    11
                                                    Recent progress
                       Hard data from recent times projected forward

1990#:           154MtCO2 equivalent from housing
                      35% of energy saving interventions installed*

2005#:           147MtCO2 equivalent from housing
                      65% of energy saving interventions installed*

2020             114MtCO2, HMG’s target for housing

Must achieve net savings at six times rate of recent history.

4% savings net of many factors

At most a 20% further reductions via 100% reach of * above.
# Measured data, incontrovertible                                            12
* 3” loft insulation, >60% window double glazed, >60% rooms draught proofed, cavity
wall insulation to modern standards
                              Notes on continuing progress

We will exhaust present measures on the fabric of houses
 within a 8-10 years.

Existing buildings will meet their 2050 carbon reduction
  target by:

1. New measures to improve the thermal envelope of
   buildings – materials, installation processes, controls, etc

2. Decarbonising the grid and other sources of energy

3. Improving the energy efficiency of appliances and

4. Changes in personal attitudes and behaviour concerning
                                                        13
   profligate energy consumption.
                                                                                           China Data (from Prof Y Jiang, Tsinghua U)


                                      The measured energy consumption of AC in every units of building A in
                                      Beijing,2006, split unit
Electricity Consumption of of Cooling System




                                               15
  Energy Consumption Cooling System




                                               14
                                               13
                                               12
             空调能耗指标 (kWh/m )
                                  2




                                               11
                                               10
                   (kWh/m2)




                                                9
                                                8
                                                7
                                                6
                                                5             平均值 2.3kWh/m2
                                                             Average 2.3 kWh/m2
                                                4
                                                3
                                                2
                                                1
                                                0
                                                    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
                                                                                    住户编号
                                                                                  Apartment No.


                                                                                                                              14
                                    Where the difference come from?

                                                                              the Building's Cooling Electricity
Starting temperature:                                                          Consumption of the Whole Year




                                        Electricity Consumption (kWh/m2·a)
•   As soon as indoor temperature                                            25          21.8
    is lower than the starting point,                                        20
    occupant may not turn on the                                             15                            12.4
    AC even it is higher than
                                                                             10
    comfort set point
                                                                              5
•   However, after the AC is turned                                           0
    on, it is very likely that the                                                   Standard Case   Raise the Starting
    occupant keeps the indoor at                                                                       Temperature
    the comfort set point

                                                                                  Starting temperature: 29 ℃
                                                                                  Operation set point : 26 ℃
                                                                                                                   15
                                                                                                               How energy relate with operation?


                                                                                                                                                                                                 the Building's Cooling Electricity Consumption with
Comparing with the energy                                                                                                                                                                                  Different Operations in Shanghai




                                                                                                                            Cooling Electricity Consumption of the
                                                                                                                                                                               25                21.8
 consumption of the five cases                                                                                                                                                 20




                                                                                                                                    Whole Year(kWh/m2·a)
•                 Total cooling electricity consumption:                                                                                                                       15                               12.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               8.8
                 21.8kWh/m2 to 3.3kWh/m2!                                                                                                                                      10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          5.3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           3.3
                                                                                                                                                                                      5

                                                                                                                                                                                      0
                                                                                                                                                                                             Standard Case    Raise the       Open      Part Time    Part Space
Measured data & simulation data in Beijing                                                                                                                                                                     Starting      Windows    Operation    operation
                                                                                                                                                                                                             Temperature




                                                                                                                                                                                                  the Building's Cooling Electricity Consumption with
    Electricity Consumption of of Cooling System




                                                   15
                                                                                                                                                                                                             Different Operations in Beijing
      Energy Consumption Cooling System




                                                   14




                                                                                                                                                   Cooling electricity consumption of the
                                                   13                                                                                                                                       20
                                                   12                                                                                                                                               16.5
                 空调能耗指标 (kWh/m )
                                      2




                                                   11




                                                                                                                                                          Whole Year(kWh/m2·a)
                                                                                                                                                                                            15
                                                   10
                       (kWh/m2)




                                                    9                                                                                                                                                              9.8
                                                    8                                                                                                                                       10
                                                    7                                                                                                                                                                            5.0
                                                    6                                                                                                                                       5                                              2.0
                                                    5             平均值 2.3kWh/m2
                                                                 Average 2.3 kWh/m2                                                                                                                                                                         1.2
                                                    4
                                                    3
                                                                                                                                                                                            0
                                                    2                                                                                                                                             Standard      Raise the      Open      Part Time       Part Space
                                                    1                                                                                                                                               Case         Starting     Windows    Operation       operation
                                                    0
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Temperature                          16
                                                        1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
                                                                                        住户编号
                                                                                      Apartment No.
AC energy data ( kWh/home unit)                                 AC energy in building B in Beijing


                                  800
                                  700
   空调耗电量( kW 户)




                                  600
                   h/




                                  500
                                  400
                                  300
                                  200
                                  100
                                   0
                                        1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
                                                      住户层数
                                                      Floor


                                             Electricity consumption by AC for home units
                                             at same location but different floors in building B
                                                                                                   17
                                                                       Beijing & Philadelphia
                                                               ont
                                                              M hl y M       p.
                                                                      ean Tem i n Phi l adel phi a and Bei j i ng

                                             30
                                                         Phi l adel phi a
                                             25          Bei j i ng


                                             20




                                   D ee. C
                                             15




                                    egr
                                             10


                                             5


                                             0
                                                  Jan   Feb     Mar    Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov    Dec          Building in Beijing
                                             -5
                                                                                   Annual Energy Intensity
                                 350



                                 300



                                 250



                                 200
                        kWH/m2




                                                                                                                                          US Campus Avg.
                                 150                                                                                                      Beijing Single Bldg.



                                 100
Campus building in US
                                  50

                                                                                                                                                      18
                                  0
                                                        Coolling                         Heating                       Electricity
                                     The Scale of the Challenge:
             (2.3) Sustainability: CLG 2006 report to Parliament



Available figures show annual energy use of buildings decreased
by 0.7% between November 2004 and 2006.

There was an overall increase of 1.1% in carbon emissions in that
period.

Over that period there were increases of
        67% in photovoltaic installations
        23-36% for small wind turbines
        21-24% for small hydro schemes
        150% for ground source heat pumps
        140% for biomass installations

Use of recycled material in construction increased 21-23% by
value and 20-22% by mass.                                         19
Reports Galore: from 26 November 2007




                                   20
ODG




  21
LGA/CLG




     22
Even Academia!




            23
                          The Royal Academy of Engineering View
Academy welcomes Gordon Brown's new focus on climate change
20 November 2007
The Academy welcomes the Prime Minister's renewed focus on abating climate
change as detailed in his first major speech on the issue yesterday. Last week's
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Synthesis Report clearly demonstrates
that the need is for action to reduce emissions, not another round of
even more detailed analyses and negotiations. Commenting on the Prime
Minister's speech, Academy Vice President Dr Sue Ion OBE FREng said: "I welcome
the Prime Minister's commitment to action given the stark warnings issued by the
IPCC over the weekend - but we urgently need a roadmap that properly
defines these challenges and begins to take practical steps to
address them. There are massive opportunities for the UK's engineering sector
and for young people to become excited by and engaged in 21stcentury engineering
projects."

My bold and italics for emphasis.

As a Fellow of the Academy, I fully endorse these views.




                                                                                   24
                                      Today’s Retrofit:           A Typical
                                      insulation, controls,
                                      comfort                 Non-domestic
                                      (cf GLA)                     Building
                                                              Now and 2050:
                                                                    Energy
Today’s
                              25%                              consumption
RDD&D
Challenge for
Buildings

35%
                              20%
                20%

                Today’s
                RDD&D
                Challenge
                for
                Electricity


                                    Electricity 50%
                                    decarbonised:
                                    allowing 40% of
                                                                         25
                                    today’s energy
                                    consumption.
                                                    The Government’s wider package of
                                                         measures including incentives


                              New                                         Existing
               Zero carbon          Community Energy Efficiency Fund                 Decent Homes
                        SDLT relief
               Code for              EEC/CERT/Supplier obligation
               Sustainable Homes                                                     Warm Front
Homes




               Design for manufacture &
               Millennium villages                  EPCs                             Landlords Energy
               Carbon Challenge              Building regulations                    Saving Allowance
                                            PPS on climate change
                                               TG eco-region                         Permitted
               Eco-towns                  Energy Saving Trust / Carbon Trust         development
                                      VAT reduction on energy efficient materials    rights
Non-domestic




                                          Low Carbon Buildings Programme
                                      Display meters/smart meters & better billing
                                            Price paid on exported electricity
                                                 Decarbonising the grid
                                          Carbon Reduction Commitment
               Zero carbon        Sustainable Operations on Government estate
                                                                                                   26

                    CLG                   DEFRA                 BERR                  HMT
               Relevant Engineering Questions on This:




(1)What do all these measures really and robustly add
  up to, in actual carbon savings?

(2)What data for 2010 would convince us that we are
  on a satisfactory emissions reduction trajectory for
  2015, 2020 and 2050?

(3)Do we have the sensors in place to do the
  necessary measurements?



                                                         27

                                                         anecdote
                         [3] Possible National Actions

                   SCALE is the essential ingredient

(1) Get the HE/FE sector to show us the way

(2) Produce a concrete trajectory from 2010 to
     2050 for an urban local authority

(3) Establish a retrofit consortium

(4) Start a campaign to change public attitudes
     and behaviours
                                                  28
                         (3.1) Get the HE/FE sector to show the way

• Idea: The HE/FE Sector be funded and tasked to get
their own estates to the 2050 targets by 2040
• Academic estates contain proxies of domestic buildings, public buildings,
offices and factories
• To show the way, what can or cannot, what does or does not, work.
• Academics taking the moral high ground on the ECS Triple Challenge
• Harness the brightest minds, especially engineers and psychologists
• Inspire the participation of students
• Internal differentiation to cover the field
• ‘Local coverage’ and exemplars across the nation, no regional bias
• Learn about the real costs and benefits before committing everyone
• Big enough to capture the construction sector
                                                                         29
• Developing the indigenous skills capacity in good time for the UK
                            Get the HE/FE sector to show the way
                                                            (ctd)
• Through HEFCE a real handle on budgets

• Three-year public funding cycles give handle on whole process

• Invaluable source of information for HMT on the scale-up economics

• Philanthropic funding of universities in this cause

• Knowledge transfer: an acknowledged strength of academia

• Many individual VCs enthusiastic and up for it.

• £3B of RDD&D money for ECS Triple Challenge

• HE/FE Sector the ‘Pull-Through’ Agent for outcomes of R&D

• Push must come from a unified HE/FE sector with supply chain allies.

                                                                         30
              Seems a win-win-win-win situation to me.
                      Cambridge University Actions on Energy
                                                (Paul Hasley)

1: (a) Upgrade the Energy Control in Buildings
   (b) Collect data and review set points.

[Arts and Humanities: < 100kWh/m2.year for each of gas and electricity, and
kg CO2/m2.year
Plant growth cabinets : 400kWh/m2.year for lights plus almost as much to
remove heat!
Biomedical : 400kWh/m2.year for electricity and almost as much for gas.]

2: Incentivise Department to reduce energy consumption
A planned allocation of energy with a rebate for underuse and a surcharge for
overuse.

3: Increase individual awareness of energy consumption on campus.

{1(a) and 3 should save up to 15% of the energy consumption, rising to
perhaps 30% with 1(b) and 2}
                                                                         31

Also the 2050 Working Group
         How is Cambridge University Doing?
                            CO2 emissions



85,000
80,000
75,000
                               Business As Usual
70,000
                               Actual/Estimate
65,000
                               Target
60,000
55,000
50,000
          4

          5

          6

          7

          8

          9

          0

          1
        /0

        /0

        /0

        /0

        /0

        /0

        /1

        /1
      03

      04

      05

      06

      07

      08

      09

      10
   20

   20

   20

   20

   20

   20

   20

   20

                                                 32
                        (3.2) An Urban Local Authority Trajectory (i)

Idea: Develop some model trajectories to describe how an
urban local authority might get from here to 2050 meeting the
interim and end targets for the ECS challenge.

ECS challenge will be met or missed in the urban environment.

Most ambitions of central government are actually delivered at the local level.

Many LAs signed up last year to have their VFM etc measured by metrics that
include progress on the ECS challenge

Mutual scratching of heads of Chief Environmental Officers in absence of a robust
trajectory to the 2050 targets

We need to develop a few holistic trajectories for energy, waster, air, waste, …

Take 2010-2050 as eight five-year periods: what measures should be started,       33
continued and completed in each period?
                       An Urban Local Authority Trajectory (ii)



Decision tool to take account of parallel trajectory of (i) raw cost of energy
(ii) degree of decarbonisation of that energy and (iii) local population
demographics

Prevent all possible lock-ins or lock-outs. No rush for biofuels or micro-
windmills!

At each stage – who will be the key players?

When will community as opposed to individual action take over?

Export and development opportunities overseas.

Publish model trajectory for Stern-type critique and modify for local
circumstances

Extend to Balham, Basingstoke, Bristol, Birmingham and Berkshire.            34
                                     (3.3) A Retrofit Consortium


Idea: Get holders of large renovation budgets to agree together to
demand and accelerate the market for new higher quality products,
installation processes etc.


 How do we kick start a totally fragmented, balkanised market/supply
  chain to get a serious move on the retrofitting agenda for existing
                               buildings?

         Everyone along the chain is calling for leadership!

Public sector (MoD, DH/NHS, LAs, DIUS/DFCS, …) controls spend of
                      ~£10Bpa on renovation.

  These, together with key private sector players – private landlords,
    hotels, supermarkets, the insurance sector – are the leaders.
                                                                     35
                                             R&DDD lined up and waiting


•Large sums of money corralled for research on energy security, climate mitigation
and adaptation and new technologies: over £2.5B in UK, and more in EU.

• Large dispersements to credible consortia on carbon sequestration, renewables,
nuclear rebuild, eco-friendly new build, with clear routes to market.

• Retrofitting will miss out – a totally balkanised industry sector, not unconnected with
cowboys in the public perception – no clear pull-through agency.

• Get £10BPa of existing and planned renovation business, in public sector first and
then private sector, under one umbrella, to drive retrofitting.

• Work together to establish an escalator of ever improving quality of interventions to
buildings to mitigate against and adapt to climate change going forward – using
aggregated demand as a lever: Technology Strategy Board will co-fund this for us.

• Approach the supply chain and the research community to establish credible bids to
secure 10-20% of the funding outlined above.                                 36
                                                    A consortium would:

1: Agree to form an umbrella organisation that will set the pace of the retrofit
   agenda, by pushing on the supply chain to accelerate improved products and
   installation procedures.

2. Stand as the owning organisation and market pull-through agent as the supply
   chain seeks £250M for RD&D for better products and procedures on our
   behalf.

3. Get TSB, the academics and the supply chain to work out for us just how fast
   we could accelerate the R&D and early uptake of new products and
   procedures, without losing credibility.

4. Agree to work on that steeper escalator of virtue.

5. Drive the market speed, and lower the barrier to new products and procedures,
   by our aggregated demand, and to get lower prices from volume.

6. Continue to work independently within budgets and timetables unless clear
   added advantages of closer harmonisation are identified.
                                                                             37
                                              Structure

Consortium consists of the owners
of renovation budgets.

Advised by small panels of experts     Retrofit Consortium
from domestic and non-domestic         advised by experts
sectors.                               Funders, CIRIA, Academia,
                                       BRE. etc
                                       The whole supply chain
They own and drive the whole
chain.

Need advanced implementation
chain of exemplar partners.

Need scale-up chain for early, large
wins.

Means of keeping up momentum

Five year reviews of on-going                            38

targets.
                    (3.4) Public Attitudes and Behaviour
                                                 Change

Must reach the stage where profligate use of energy is
considered as deeply antisocial.

Like drink-driving, smoking in confined public spaces,
not wearing seat-belts, etc.

Target the young using their own communications.

Ready exemplars of alternative good behaviour to be
available.

Redefine the meaning of Comfort.
                                                         39
                                               Comfort


Mr Koisume’s initiative: public buildings in Tokyo,
not cooled below 28C nor heated above 20C
Change in business dress code – ‘cool biz’
No robust data on altered worker or IT efficiency

CLG announcement in late October 2008:
 from 22±1 all year to 23±2 in summer
                 and 21±2 in winter.
                        [i.e. 19-25C]

[Expectation: 8% reduction on heating bill
          and 5% reduction on cooling bill.]        40
                                                         But did you know?




If people have got used to feeling comfortable at 22C, would this measure if
implemented backfire in terms of morale, productivity etc?

Suggestion that Workplace Health, Safety and Welfare (WHSW) Regulations 1992
has replaced words maximum and minimum with ‘reasonable’
                                                                               41
                                      [4] Recent HMG Actions

(1)Lord Drayson announces competition on Retrofit

(2)Three CLG/DECC consultations issues on key issues:
        12 Feb to 23 April 2009

Heat and Energy Saving Strategy (HES) Consultation, setting
   out the Government’s longer-term ambitions for how we use
   energy in our homes and businesses;
the design of the Community Energy Saving Programme
   (CESP), which aims to deliver significant packages of energy
   efficiency measures to households in low-income communities;
a 20% increase to the Carbon Emission Reduction Target
   (CERT) on major energy suppliers, driving significant
   investment in GB household energy and carbon saving by
   March 2011.

                                                                  42
                          Heat and Energy Saving Strategy (HES)
                                                   Consultation
We aim to:

In 2015, provide the capacity to deliver comprehensive whole house
   solutions to at least 400,000 homes per year.

In 2020, save up to 44 MtCO2 a year – equivalent to 30% of 2006
   emissions from households.

By 2020, have made available comprehensive whole house solutions to
  improve the energy performance of approximately 7m homes.

By 2030, have made available cost-effective energy efficiency measures
  to all households.

By 2050, have reduced emissions from households (and business
  premises) by at least 80%, and as far as possible be approaching
  zero.                                                           43
                                                                 [5] Summary


Meeting the triple challenge for existing buildings will be the biggest civil
engineering project taken in peacetime.

Will it need a ‘war-like’ footing to succeed (a la Manhattan project)?

Considered trajectory worth waiting for instead of a blind rush or a scatter-gun
project.

Can we have a Pareto analysis of the timely interventions?

Academia to show the way.

Export and development opportunities for successful actions.

A public debate required on the level of spend needed on infrastructure, coming
from health and education spend.

Our progress will be our ultimate legacy of this age for the future.
                                                                                44
   Thank you

       and

Further Discussion


                     45

								
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