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Jones NEP Leveraging _draft_

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					National Estuary Program (NEP)
  Development Activities and
          Leveraging
 Tim Jones, US Environmental Protection Agency
 Association of National Estuary Programs (ANEP)
                    Conference
                  Manhattan, NY
                November 18, 2008




                                                   1
             Outline
 Summary   of 2003-2008
  leveraging results
 Analysis of Factors Affecting
  Leveraging 2003-2007
 Resources to Advance
  Leveraging
 Leveraging Data QA/QC
                                  2
      Summary of 2003-2008
        leveraging results
   2008 marks 6th year of data collection
   In 2008 NEPs collectively leveraged $12.70 for
    every EPA dollar received (primary role only)
   Since 2003 NEPs have used $99 million in EPA
    funds to leverage $1.5 billion in resources – a
    leveraging ratio of 14.9:1 (primary role only)
   States remain the major source of leveraging
   Land acquisition dominated uses of leveraged
    resources (40% in 2008 and 47% since 2005)
    followed by habitat restoration
                                                  3
     2008 Leveraging by Role*

 Primary leveraging           All Roles: $1.14 billion
  ratio of 12.7:1           Significant
                             $738 mm
 Typical (median)
  NEP primary
  leveraging ratio of
  4.7:1
 NEPs played at                                        Support
                           Primary
  least some role in      $160 mm         Section 320   $237 mm
  leveraging $1.14                         $13 mm

  billion in 2008

                *2008 data excludes Puget Sound               4
 Sources of Primary Leveraging
            in 2008
 States  again
                       State
  provided the         64%
                                                        Local
  majority of                                            16%

  leveraged
  resources
 Local $ and                                    Federal
                               Private
  share                          5%               15%

  declined        Shares of $160 million in primary leveraging
  significantly
                                                             5
                 Land Acquisitions Again
                  Dominate Leveraging
           $70     Investments in 2008
Millions




                 40.0%

           $60

           $50

           $40
                                           Uses of $160 million in
                         21.4%             2008 primary leveraging
           $30

           $20                   9.6%
                                        7.2%   6.5%    6.2%    5.0%
           $10                                                        3.2%
                                                                             0.9%
            $0




                                                                                6
    2003-2008 Leveraging Results
   Over the last 6           Significant Role*
    years, NEPs                 $2.05 billion             Support Role*
                                                           $1.50 billion
    received $99
    million in EPA
    funding and…
       Played the lead
        role in generating
                                                              EPA Section 320
        $1.5 billion                Primary Role*              and Earmarks
                                     $1.48 billion              $99.3 million
       Played some role
        in generating more
                             Cumulative Leveraging: $5.02 billion
        than $5 billion
                                                                       7
           Cumulative Primary Leveraging
           $1,600
                   At $1.5 Billion
Millions




           $1,400

                       Cumulative Primary
           $1,200      Leveraging
                       Cumulative Section
           $1,000
                       320 Funding
            $800


            $600


            $400


            $200


              $0
                2003    2004       2005     2006       2007   2008

                       Primary leveraging since 2003                 8
Primary Leveraging Ratio for
 the Typical (Median) NEP
7.0

6.0                               6.0

5.0
                                                   4.7
                4.3      4.3               4.2
4.0

3.0
       2.6
2.0

1.0

-
    2003     2004     2005     2006     2007     2008
                                                         9
       Most Primary Leveraging Dollars
          from States, Then Local
                Governments
         $5    $7     $5               $7     $10    $8
100%
                                       $28
90%     $20    $15    $19                     $19    $24
        $17                            $119
80%            $19
                      $28
70%                                           $69    $25
                             Private
60%
                             Federal
50%                          Local
40%                          State
        $146                           $443
30%                                                  $103
               $126                           $110
20%                   $106

10%

 0%
        2003   2004   2005             2006   2007   2008
                                                        10
           Cumulative Primary Leveraging
             Investments: 2005 - 2008
           $600
                  47%
           $500
Millions




           $400


           $300


           $200         15%
                              8.7%   7.4%
           $100                             7.2%
                                                   4.7%   4.4%   3.7%
                                                                        2.0%
             $0




                                                                               11
    Analysis of Factors
Affecting Leveraging 2003-
           2007




                             12
         Factors Evaluated
 Area  of NEP
 Population of NEP
 Age (years since CCMP signed)
 Institutional setting of CCMP
 Could not evaluate budget factor (no data)




                                           13
        Basis for Evaluation
 Cumulative   primary leveraging dollars and
  ratios reported for the five years beginning
  in 2003 and ending in 2007
 Ratios provide a better indication of
  leveraging “success” since they adjust for
  variation in 320 grants and earmarks
 Significant and support leveraging are less
  reliable because fewer NEPs report them


                                             14
           Area - Summary
 Leveraged   dollars and ratios tend to be
  higher in larger NEPs
 The largest 1/3 of NEPs account for 70%
  of primary leveraging
 Area is the most consistent predictor of
  leveraging success among factors
  evaluated, but it is only one of many


                                              15
Largest 1/3 of NEPs (by area) =
    70% of Primary Dollars

                                         1,000
                              Millions




                                                                                                    70%
                                          900
                                          800
5 Year Cumulative Primary $




                                          700
                                          600

                                          500
                                          400
                                                                             22%
                                          300
                                          200
                                                       8%
                                          100
                                           -
                                                 Small (<900 sq.mi)   Mid (900-4500 sq.mi)   Large (>4500 sq mi)
                                                                                                                   16
                                               Primary Leveraging Ratios Also
                                                   Higher for Larger NEPs
                                               30
5 Year Cumulatiive Primary Leveraging Ratios




                                               25

                                                                            Mean   Median
                                               20


                                               15


                                               10


                                                   5


                                               -
                                                       Small (<900 sq.mi)   Mid (900-4500 sq.mi)   Large (>4500 sq mi)
                                                                                                                     17
Data Plot and Regression Line                          50

                                                                 Excludes data point at 4,600 sq.mi
                                                                 and ratio of 169
    Primary Leveraging Ratio (5-Year Cumulative)




                                                       40




                                                       30




                                                       20
                                                                                                          R2 = 0.04



                                                       10




                                                   -
                                                            -   5,000          10,000            15,000    20,000     25,000
                                                                                 Area in Square Miles

                                                  Correlation between area and primary ratio positive
                                                   but weak for all NEPs; stronger if outliers excluded                        18
      Population - Summary
 More  populous NEPs tend to have more
  leveraging, but the relationship is weak
 The most populous 1/3 of NEPs account
  for 46% of cumulative primary leveraging
 Ratios increase only slightly with
  population increases



                                             19
                                              Share of Primary Leveraging
                                             Dollars by Population Category
                                                    $700
                                         Millions




                                                                                     48%
                                                                                                         45%
                                                    $600
5 Year Cumulative Primary Leveraging $




                                                    $500


                                                    $400


                                                    $300


                                                    $200

                                                                 7%
                                                    $100


                                                     $0
                                                           Small (<750K pop)   Mid (750K-3MM pop)   Large (>3MM pop)
                                                                                                                       20
                                                       Median Ratios Increase With
                                                        Population, But Means Are
                                                           Skewed by Outliers
                                                  30
5 Year Cumulative Primary Leveraging Ratios




                                                  25




                                                  20


                                                            Mean        Median
                                                  15




                                                  10




                                                   5




                                              -
                                                         Small (<750K pop)       Mid (750K-3MM pop)   Large (>3MM pop)
                                                                                                                         21
                                      Data Plot and Regression Line
                                      50
                                                        Excludes data point at 1.7 million
Cumulative Primary Leveraging Ratio




                                                        population and ratio of 169
                                      40



                                      30

                                                                                                   2
                                                                                                  R = 0.14
                                      20



                                      10



                                      -
                                           -      2      4         6          8         10   12        14           16
                                                                                                             Millions

                                                                       NEP Population

                                          Ratios increase slightly with population, excluding one
                                                                                                  22
                                           outlier
            Age - Summary
 Time  since CCMP adoption is not a useful
  indicator of leveraging success
 The least and most mature NEPs account
  for a disproportionate share of total dollars
 Leveraging ratios trend slightly lower as
  age increases



                                              23
          The Oldest ¼ of NEPs = 44% of
          Cumulative Primary Leveraging
                                         $700
                              Millions




                                         $600
                                                                                                44%
5 Year Cumulative Primary $




                                         $500
                                                  36%


                                         $400


                                         $300


                                         $200                                    12%
                                                                  8%
                                         $100


                                          $0
                                                6-8 Yrs Ago   9-12 Yrs Ago   12-13 Yrs Ago   13-17 Yrs Ago
                                                                                                             24
                                           Neither Mean Nor Median
                                          Ratios Follow a Pattern With
                                                      Age
                                  30


                                  25
5 Year Cumulative Primary Ratio




                                  20
                                                                Average   Median
                                  15


                                  10


                                      5


                                  -
                                            6-8 Yrs Ago   9-12 Yrs Ago       12-13 Yrs Ago   13-17 Yrs Ago


                                                                                                             25
                Data Plot and Regression Line
                                  50




                                  40

                                           Excludes data point at 7.2 years and ratio of 169
5 Year Cumulative Primary Ratio




                                  30


                                                                                                        2
                                                                                                       R = 0.13
                                  20




                                  10




                                  -
                                       6              8            10             12              14        16    18
                                                                        Years Since CCMP Signed


                                          Age has a slightly positive correlation with
                                           primary ratios, excluding one outlier                                       26
 Institutional Setting - Summary
 Small  sample sizes limit conclusions from
  this data
 Ratios trend higher at NEPs in
  government settings (EPA region, states,
  local governments) (n=18)
 Lower ratios are found at NEPs in
  nonprofit, university, or other settings
  (n=10)


                                               27
                  Share of Primary Dollars by
                            Setting
           $700
Millions




                                        44%
           $600



           $500



           $400
                                26%

                      22%
           $300



           $200



           $100                                 6%

                                                        2%
                                                                    1%
            $0
                   EPA Region   State   Local   NFP   University   Other
                                                                           28
                  Plot of Primary Ratios by
 University
                           Setting
     State




     Other

      NFP




     Local




                                                                  169
EPA Region



              -       10       20                   30       40     50
                           5 Year Cumulative Primary Ratio         29
30
  Resources to Advance
      Leveraging

Goal: Provide a framework and tools to
create a sustainable funding plan for your
                  NEP.




                                         31
Why do we need a new approach?
 Clean     water infrastructure gap > $500
 billion.

    waterways need protection today
 Our
 more than ever.

 We  need you to continue your good work
 for years to come.
                                              32
         But really… why am I here?
A plan can help:

   Set priorities

   Incorporate fundraisers into your organization's current
    activities

   Capitalize on the strengths of your organization (save time
    and resources)

   Target resources that are sustainable and likely to be
    obtained

   Generate buy-in from your board, staff, and volunteers

   Limit crisis fundraising                                      33
  Ingredients for a Good Finance
                Plan
Step 1: Establish Funding Priorities
Step 2: Assess Capacity
Step 3: Set Fundraising Goals
Step 4: Identify Funding Sources
Step 5: Evaluate and Select Sources
Step 6: Write and Implement Plan



                                       34
   “Elevator Speech” Exercise
 Turn to the person next to you and explain
 to them in sixty seconds why they should
 donate to your organization.




                                           35
  A good “elevator speech” should
              include:
 Who  your organization is
 What the mission is
 1-3 of your current, top priorities
 How you plan to achieve those priorities
 What you would use additional funds for


But how do you figure all of this out?

                                             36
4. Sustainability (continued)




                                37
   4. Sustainability (continued)
 In 2006, Giving USA reported that
  donations to groups that work on
  environmental issues (including animal
  rights) rose to $8.9 billion, mostly from
  individuals!!




                                              38
It’s also important to have a full
calendar of all funding activities!




                                      39
     Funding “Lessons Learned”
   Incorporate fundraisers into your organization's
    current activities
   Capitalize on the strengths of your organization
   Target a diversity of resources that are
    sustainable and likely to be obtained
   Create a finance plan that can be used year
    after year to guide efforts
   Diffuse fundraising efforts throughout your
    organization

                                                       40
And most importantly….



Plan, Plan, and Work the Plan!!!




                                   41
        In case you need more
             inspiration…
“I skate to where the puck is going to be, not
   to where it has been.” –Wayne Gretsky

“Think little goals and expect little
  achievements. Think big goals and win big
  success.” –David J. Schwartz




                                             42
Leveraging Data QA/QC




                        43
              Thank You!
 Tim Jones            Many thanks to River
                       Network, The Foundation
  jones.tim@epa.gov    Center, and many other
                       organizations for use of their
  202-566-1245         materials!




        epa.gov/owow/funding.html



                                                        44

				
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