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					Are Hurricanes Increasing in
 Frequency and Intensity?




  Luke Annala-Kinne, Dylan Esmonde,
    Emma McArdle, Rylee Sweeney
                                    Al Gore’s documentary, “An Inconvenient
                                    Truth,” makes statements such as;
                                    “The number of Category 4 and 5
                                    hurricanes has most doubled in the last
                                    30 years.”




After looking at the
documentary’s website,
www.climatecrisis.net, I began to
research Gore’s sources.


Information regarding hurricanes
was mainly from Kerry Emanuel.
         Frequency vs. Time
• Using chi-squared analysis, I found that the
  chi-squared sum proved the null hypothesis
  correct- There is not a correlation between
  the passing of time (and warmer world
  temperatures) and hurricane frequency.
“Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past
                         30 years”
                     By Kerry Emanuel
                                     Power Dissipation Index



                                “Although the frequency of tropical
                                   cyclones is an important scientific
                                   issue, it is not by itself an optimal
                                   measure of tropical cyclone threat.
                                   The actual monetary loss in wind
                                   storms rises roughly as the cube of
                                   the wind speed as does the PD.”

                                Nowhere in this paper does Emanuel
                                  relate the PDI to the Saffir-
                                  Simpson system of categorizing
                                  hurricanes.
            What do the experts say?
• IPCC:
  – Frequency— “no clear trend”
                                            NOAA Hurricane Modeling
    with current debate
  – Intensity— “more likely than
    not” that future storms will
    increase in intensity
• NOAA:
  – Frequency— “variability makes
    detecting any long-term trends
    in tropical cyclone activity
    difficult”
  – Intensity— “Model studies and
    theory project a 3-5% increase
    in wind-speed per degree
    Celsius increase of tropical sea
    surface temperatures.”             Source: http://www.gfdl.gov/~tk/glob_warm_hurr.html
       Hurricane Frequency + 10 Year Average
16


14


12


10


8


6


4


2


0
1850     1870   1890   1910   1930   1950   1970   1990   2010
              10 Year Average (1851-2006)
9



8



7



6



5



4



3
1850   1870     1890   1910   1930   1950   1970   1990   2010
       10 Year Average + 6 Order Polynomial
9



8



7



6



5



4



3
1850    1870   1890   1910   1930   1950   1970   1990   2010
                 Category 4 and 5 Hurricanes
           5


           4
Category




           3
                                                          4 and 5
           2


           1


           0
           1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
                               Year
10 Year Averaged Categories + 50 Year Trendlines
                       50 Year Trendline Predictions for 2050
                      4


                     3.5
Hurricane Category




                      3


                     2.5


                      2


                     1.5

                                                                                                   10 year avg
                                                                                                   Category
                      1                                                                            1860-1900 Prediction

                      1850   1870   1890   1910   1930   1950   1970   1990   2010   2030   2050   1910-1950 Prediction

                                                                                                   Linear (1960-2006
                                                         Year                                      trendline)
                 Change in Wind Speed
                             Change In Wind Speed Over Time                 y = -0.1275x + 303.5
                                                                                R2 = 0.7015
75


                                                                        Standard Deviatiion =
70                                                                      7.24



65


                                                                               Series 1
60
                                                                               Linear (Series 1)


55



50



45
 1850   1870   1890   1910     1930        1950        1970   1990   2010
          Wind Speed Change as a Function of
                          Temperature

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2                                                               Series1
0.1

   0
   1860   1880   1900   1920   1940   1960   1980   2000   2020
-0.1

-0.2

-0.3
         Temperature Vs. Windspeed
65


60


55
                                           Series1
50
                                        R=.52
45


40
  -0.4     -0.2   0   0.2   0.4   0.6
      Table Of Most Deadly Hurricanes
Rank         Hurricane        Season        Fatalities
 1     Great Hurricane      1780       22,000
 2     Mitch                1998       11-18,000
 3     Galveston            1900       8-12,000
 4     Fifi                 1974       8-10,000
  5    Dominican Republic   1930       2-8,000
  6    Flora                1963       7-8,000
  7    Pointe-a-Pitre       1776       6,000+
  8    Newfoundland         1775       4-4,163
  9    Okeechobee”          1928       4,075+
 10    San Ciriaco          1899       3,433+
      Table Of Most Costly Hurricanes
Name      Year
Katrina   2005       Name (cont)             Year (cont)
Andrew    1992       Camille                 1969
Wilma     2005       Diane                   1955
Charley   2004       Jeanne                  2004
Ivan      2004       Frederic                1979
Hugo      1989       New England (1938)      1938
Agnes     1972       TS Allison              2001
Betsy     1965       Floyd                   1999
Rita      2005       Great Atlantic (1944)   1944
Frances   2004       Fran                    1996
               Conclusions

• Compounding factors cause fuzzy data and
  large seasonal variation
• Extant hurricane data too unclear to make
  accurate predictions of future activity
• No pattern to indicate a clear increase in
  frequency or intensity
EXCELSIOR

				
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posted:2/14/2012
language:English
pages:18