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Presentation-Bryan-Erb

VIEWS: 7 PAGES: 36

									 World Energy Outlook and the
Prospects for Sustainable Sources
     International Symposium on
       Solar Energy from Space

              September 8-10, 2009
     Ontario Science Centre, Toronto, Canada

                 Dr. R. Bryan Erb
                              Messages
 Energy demand will continue to grow strongly
 Alternatives to “Business as Usual” (BAU) can
  limit emissions to acceptable levels
 Renewable sources will dominate
 Investments need to be large
 Strong environmental policies will be required
 Space Solar Power will be competitive


SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009     R. Bryan Erb       2
                              Outline
    Concerns
    Drivers for energy needs
    Current world energy situation
    Energy trends
    Approaches to stabilizing GHG             emissions
           Decarbonizing fossil fuels
           Expanding the use of renewables

    Renewables that will be significant
    Investments
    Space Solar Power will be competitive

SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009     R. Bryan Erb               3
                              Concerns
 The World Energy Outlook – Troubling!              Why?
        Continuing BAU will aggravate climate impacts
        Alternatives to present sources will be challenging

         to implement at the needed scale
        Consumption will grow as population increases

         and must grow to help those in energy poverty
        Food and fiber production must be increased

         without damaging lands and biota
        Global energy infrastructure is so vast and
         complex that change can come only slowly
SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009     R. Bryan Erb                   4
                 Drivers For Energy Needs
     Population
            Currently 6.5 Billion
            Expect 10 B by 2050 and 11.6 B by 2100

     Economic activity
            Gross world product currently $38 Trillion
            Expect $75 B by 2050 and $200+ B by 2100

     Efficiency ofenergy utilization
     Desire to reduce inequities in global energy
      availability

SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009   R. Bryan Erb                5
    The Current World Energy Situation
           Will be described by:
                    Total quantity of energy produced and its
                     distribution among major economic regions
                    Level of economic activity supported by this
                     quantity of energy
                    Sources of energy
                    Resource availability
                    Environmental implications

SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009          R. Bryan Erb                   6
                    Quantity of Energy and
                      Economic Activity
           World Total Primary Energy Supply
               (TPES) in 2006:                   15,600 GWth
           Gross World Product:                $38 Trillion US
           Population:                           6.5 Billion
           TPES per person:                        2.4 KWth
           Carbon emissions:                     7,600 MtC

SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009      R. Bryan Erb                     7
                              TPES per Person by Region
                              Africa
              Latin America
            Asia (Ex China)
                              China
       Non-OECD Europe
               Former USSR
                 Middle East
                              OECD
                          World

                                       0     2            4   6   8
                                                   KWth
SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009                R. Bryan Erb               8
       Primary Energy Sources - 2004

                                                   Nuclear
                              Natural Gas           6.5%     Hydro
                                20.9%                        2.2%


                 Oil                        Renewables       Traditional
                34.3%                         13.3%            10.6%

                                 Coal & Peat
                                   25.1%                     Others
                                                              0.5%


SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009                 R. Bryan Erb              9
  Distribution of the 0.5% of “Others”
                               Tide                   Solar
                              0.0004                  0.039
                                                              Wind
                                                              0.064




                               Geothermal 0.414




SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009            R. Bryan Erb                   10
               Resource Availability &
             Environmental Implications
 Near  Term Resources:
  “There are sufficient reserves of most types of
  energy resources to last at least several
  decades at current rates of use” … IPCC
 Environment: A major and growing issue




SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009   R. Bryan Erb          11
                              Energy Trends
 Projections are based on the scenarios of the
  World Energy Council/IIASA and extend to 2100
 Drivers are:
        Population – 10.06 Billion in 2050, 11.65 by 2100
        Economic Activity - $75 to 100 B depending on

         scenario
        Technology choices - especially acceptability of coal

         and nuclear
 Three broad scenarios – A, high growth; B,
     “business as usual”; C, ecologically driven
SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009        R. Bryan Erb             12
       Energy History and Projections
            70,000
            60,000                                                  A

            50,000
                                                                    B
            40,000
GWth 30,000
                                                                     C
            20,000
            10,000
                     0
                      1850    1900   1950           2000   2050   2100
                                                Year
SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009          R. Bryan Erb                        13
                Representative Scenarios

 Three of the WEC/IIASA scenarios chosen to
     illustrate a range of possible energy futures:
              B - BAU
              A2 - highest emissions scenario
              C1 - least use of nuclear




SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009     R. Bryan Erb          14
                    Environmental Outlook
       Only the “Ecologically-Driven” scenarios
         reduce emissions significantly
       Net emissions of energy-related Carbon are
         reduced to tolerable levels by 2100
       Atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2100
         stabilizes in the range of 450 to 550 ppm
       This concentration should limit warming to
         two to three degrees C
       Each of these has its own particular makeup
         of energy sources
SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009   R. Bryan Erb         15
              Energy Share by Source - B
 100%
                                                                      Other
                                                                      Biomass
   80%
                                                                      Solar
   60%                                                                Nuclear
                                                                      Hydro
   40%                                                                Gas
                                                                      Oil
   20%                                                                Coal
                                                                      Traditional
     0%
       1850               1900   1950       2000        2050   2100
                                        Year
SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009              R. Bryan Erb                           16
            Energy Share by Source - A2
 100%
                                                                     Other
                                                                     Biomass
   80%
                                                                     Solar
   60%                                                               Nuclear
                                                                     Hydro
   40%                                                               Gas
                                                                     Oil
   20%
                                                                     Coal
                                                                     Traditional
     0%
       1850               1900   1950      2000        2050   2100
                                    Year
SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009             R. Bryan Erb                           17
           Energy Share by Source – C1
  100%
                                                                           Other
                                                                           Biomass
    80%
                                                                           Solar
    60%                                                                    Nuclear
                                                                           Hydro
    40%                                                                    Gas
                                                                           Oil
    20%
                                                                           Coal
                                                                           Traditional
      0%
        1850                  1900   1950        2000        2050   2100
                                            Year
SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009                   R. Bryan Erb                               18
  Outlook for Resource Availability
     WEC projects adequate resource availability
         over the next 100 years, but foresees that a
         shift in sources will be driven by:
            Environmental impacts
            Economic recoverability of the resources




SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009    R. Bryan Erb             19
Net Carbon Emissions from Energy
           25000

           20000                                                          A2

           15000
   MtC
           10000                                                          B

             5000

                   0                                                      C1
                    1990      2010   2030            2050   2070   2090
                                                Year
SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009           R. Bryan Erb                             20
                Approaches To Stabilizing
                    GHG Emissions
 There are two fundamental approaches on the
     energy front:
        Reducing the impact of fossil fuels, i.e.,
         “Decarbonizing” them
        Expanding the use of renewables or nuclear

               Note: there are other ways of influencing
                 climate, including various forms of
                      Geo/Climate engineering
SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009     R. Bryan Erb               21
               Decarbonizing Fossil Fuels
 Approaches include:
        Shifting to lower carbon fuels, e.g., gas vs. coal
        Improving the efficiency of use of such fuels

        Capturing and sequestering the carbon (CCS):

          “upstream” in the supply process, or
           “downstream” in the utilization process

 These measures are necessary but not
     sufficient – major expansion in the supply
     from renewable sources is vital
SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009   R. Bryan Erb                    22
                              Renewables
       Renewable sources include: hydro, biomass,
        solar, wind, geothermal and various forms
        of ocean/tidal/wave energy
       Each has its own peculiar advantages and
        drawbacks
       Only some can be exploited at a scale and
        in a time frame that will make a significant
        contribution

SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009      R. Bryan Erb          23
              Sources Viewed as Limited
 Hydro – only modest scope for expansion
 Biomass – important for                    fuels, but limited by
  competition for land
 Geothermal - locally important, but not a
  large-scale source unless the “Engineered
  Geothermal Systems” approach can be
  developed successfully
 Ocean/tidal/wave - resources are immense
  yet diffuse and expensive to exploit
SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009   R. Bryan Erb                           24
                              Nuclear Outlook
 Nuclear suffers from concerns over public
  acceptance, final waste management and
  proliferation risk
 Little capacity is being added in the OECD
  countries and some is being removed
 However, China, Russia and India have
  ambitious programs
 More widespread use may be needed to meet
  emissions targets
SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009         R. Bryan Erb   25
                    Significant Renewables:
                              Solar and Wind
     Total energy  available from these sources is
      immense, but the energy density is low
     Product is largely electricity, the most useful
      form of energy
     The C1 scenario projects that these sources,
      along with biomass for fuels, will be the
      dominant sources of the future

SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009       R. Bryan Erb      26
      Electricity from Solar and Wind
                   18000
                   16000
                                                                             Solar
                   14000
                   12000
                   10000
      TWh
                     8000
      r
                     6000                                                    Wind
                     4000
                     2000
                              0
                               1990   2010   2030       2050   2070   2090

                                                Year
SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009                  R. Bryan Erb                            27
            The Matter of Intermittency
       It is critical to recognize that solar and wind
           are intermittent sources and can be used
           immediately by the power grid only to the
           extent of 20 - 25% of production
       Solar and wind can be more fully exploited
           to meet base load needs if storage can be
           provided or if the electricity is used to
           generate hydrogen

SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009   R. Bryan Erb                28
     Electricity from Solar and Wind:
                      Extent of Immediate Use
                50000                                              Total
                                                                Electricity
                40000

                30000                                        Electricity from
    TWhr                                                      Solar + Wind
                20000
                                                               Stored
                10000
                                                               25% of Total
                        0
                         1990   2040                  2090
                                               Year
SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009     R. Bryan Erb                                    29
           Cost Impact of Intermittency
 Solar and wind installations with storage (to
     serve base load needs) will be more expensive
     than those providing peak power
 Capital costs, by mid-century, of such plants is
     estimated at ≈ $7000 per KWe
 Incremental investment to accommodate this
     intermittency is estimated at ≈ $1T per year
     beginning around 2040 (just over 1% of GWP)

SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009   R. Bryan Erb          30
                              Energy Investments
    Recent capital expenditures ≈ 1% of GWP

    Implementing energy       scenarios that reduce
        emissions significantly will be more costly
    Stern Report documents cost estimates at
     1% of GWP by 2050 to stabilize atmospheric
     concentration of CO2 at 500-550ppm
    WEC notes costs unlikely to exceed 2% of
     GWP
SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009          R. Bryan Erb      31
       Outlook for Space Solar Power
 Capital costs for    Space Solar Power
     installations are estimated to be on the order
     of $4000 per KWe
 If terrestrial installations for solar and wind
     providing base load power run $7,000 per
     KWe and a Trillion dollars a year is needed to
     build the needed capacity, then Space Solar
     Power should be very competitive

SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009   R. Bryan Erb            32
                              An Assessment
 Implementing an energy future such as C1 will
     be extremely challenging, requiring:
        Enormous investments
        Strong environmental policies

        Continuing international cooperation for decades

 Consequences of failing to                      follow such a path:
        Serious climate impacts or
        Expansion of nuclear supply and/or

        Resort to more use of fossil fuels

SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009        R. Bryan Erb                         33
    What Could Change This Picture?
    Cheaper ways to store electricity

    Power grids of international scale

    Economic means of exploiting            geothermal or
        ocean energy
    Success in exploiting nuclear fusion




SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009   R. Bryan Erb               34
                              Recommendations
 Promote a better  general understanding of
  the world energy situation
 Support all plausible sources of sustainable
  and clean energy, especially Space Solar
  Power
 Support policy actions that reduce emissions,
  importantly, putting a price on carbon
 Support policy actions that improve efficiency
 Start now
SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009         R. Bryan Erb   35
                              Take Away
 Energy demand will continue to grow strongly
 Alternatives to “Business as Usual” can limit
  emissions to acceptable levels
 Renewable sources will dominate
 Investments need to be large
 Strong environmental policies will be required
 Space Solar Power will be competitive


SPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009      R. Bryan Erb     36

								
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