2012 ICT Reliability Assessment by wangping12

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									2012 ICT Reliability Assessment

            D R A FT


            June 2011
2012 ICT Reliability Assessment - DRAFT




                                                              Table of Contents

2012 ICT Reliability Assessment ......................................................................................................................... 2 
Introduction............................................................................................................................................................ 2 
ICT Reliability Assessment Scope ...................................................................................................................... 2 
Entergy’s Draft Construction Plan ...................................................................................................................... 3 
    Completed Projects from the 2011-2013 Construction Plan .............................................................................. 5 
    Other Changes between the Update 1 (2011-13) and Draft (2012-14) Plans .................................................... 6 
Reliability Assessment and Construction Plan Evaluation Results ................................................................ 8 
    Near-Term Period – 2013 and 2017 ................................................................................................................... 8 
      Low Hydro....................................................................................................................................................... 9 
      Load Pockets .................................................................................................................................................. 9 
    Longer-Term Period – 2020 .............................................................................................................................. 10 
Stakeholder Participation ................................................................................................................................... 11 
Attachments ......................................................................................................................................................... 12 




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2012 ICT Reliability Assessment - DRAFT




                              2012 ICT Reliability Assessment
                                                        DRAFT
Introduction
Southwest Power Pool (SPP) acts as the Independent Coordinator of Transmission (ICT) for Entergy. The ICT
performs a number of functions under the provisions of Entergy’s Open Access Transmission Tariff (OATT).
Among these functions is an annual reliability assessment of Entergy’s transmission system, which includes an
evaluation of Entergy’s draft Construction Plan for the next three years. The ICT’s Reliability Assessment and
Construction Plan Evaluation (CPE) are part of an overall planning process which culminates in the
development of Entergy’s Construction Plan and the ICT’s Base Plan. The Base Plan includes all projects that
the ICT believes are necessary to comply with Entergy’s Planning Criteria and thus is focused on reliability
needs. The Base Plan forms the basis for cost allocation under Attachment T of Entergy’s OATT.


ICT Reliability Assessment Scope
The objective of the Reliability Assessment is to assess the ability of the Entergy transmission system to
perform according to Entergy’s Planning Criteria in both near-term and long-term horizons. Entergy’s Planning
Criteria are described in its OATT and are posted on Entergy’s OASIS. Entergy’s Planning Criteria are listed
below:

         •    NERC TPL Standards
         •    SERC Supplements to NERC Standards
         •    Entergy Transmission Local Criteria
         •    Entergy Transmission Planning Guidelines (Business Practices)

Entergy’s compliance with NERC Reliability Standards is facilitated through the SERC Regional Entity (SERC)
which is not affiliated with SPP. The Reliability Assessment is not a substitute for the compliance processes
required by NERC and SERC. Where the Reliability Assessment shows possible overloads or voltage
problems, this does not indicate non-compliance with NERC or SERC standards, but rather provides the ICT’s
view of overall reliability with respect to Entergy’s Planning Criteria.

The ICT has certain discretion under Entergy’s OATT regarding the application of Entergy’s Planning Criteria.
Using this discretion, the ICT has applied interpretations or enhancements with respect to the Planning Criteria.
These enhancements provide that (1) “non-consequential load” shed will not be used as a mitigation plan, and
(2) the amount of “consequential load” exposed to possible load shedding for contingency situations is limited to
100 MW. (“100 MW Rule”)




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2012 ICT Reliability Assessment - DRAFT


The Reliability Assessment included an evaluation of the transmission system under multiple scenarios:

          •       System Intact – with all elements in their normal configuration
          •       N-1 Contingency – outage of every single transmission segment individually
          •       Transmission Circuit Contingency – outage of a single transmission circuit by operation of
                  protective devices (breaker-to-breaker contingency)

These scenarios were evaluated (1) with the Approved projects in the 2011-2013 Update 1 Construction Plan
and (2) with both Approved and Proposed and In-Target projects in the draft 2012-2014 Construction Plan. The
amount of consequential load associated with a particular transmission circuit contingency was determined for
each scenario.

Two additional analyses were performed:

          •   A Low Hydro scenario evaluating the effect of the reduced availability of hydro generation in north
              Arkansas during dry summer months.
          •       Specific contingencies defined in Entergy’s Planning Criteria for Load Pockets.

The full Reliability Assessment scope was discussed with and commented on by stakeholders at the January
20, 2011 Stakeholder Policy Committee net conference. The ICT added more detail to the Reliability
Assessment scope and that was discussed with and commented on by stakeholders at the March 17, 2011
Stakeholder Policy Committee meeting held in New Orleans, and the final scope can be found in Attachment A
to this report.


Entergy’s Draft Construction Plan
The draft Construction Plan developed by Entergy includes all transmission projects that Entergy expects to
construct or initiate construction of during the 2012-2014 time period. The Construction Plan includes projects
that Entergy believes are necessary to satisfy Entergy’s Planning Criteria as well as Supplemental Upgrades
that include economic projects as well as projects related to transmission service or generator interconnections.

Projects shown in Entergy’s draft Construction Plan with the funding comment “Approved” are those that
construction has been funded and Entergy has committed to complete the project by the projected in-service
date. “Proposed and In Target” projects are funded for scoping and preliminary engineering and the expected
construction commencement date is within the 3-year Construction Plan horizon. Some “Proposed and In
Target” projects may have in-service dates beyond the 2012-2014 period.

The ICT posted Entergy’s draft 2012-2014 Construction Plan on Entergy’s OASIS on May 29, 2011. New
projects in the draft 2012-2014 Construction Plan are shown below in Table 1 below.




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                                                                                               Projected
      CP ID                                     Project Name                                   In-service
                                                                                                  Date
                                                                                               Summer
11CP-EAI-003        Fordyce: Relocate capacitor bank to 115 kV bus
                                                                                                2014
                    Woodward to Pine Bluff Watson Chapel: Upgrade station equipment at         Summer
11CP-EAI-013
                    Watson Chapel                                                               2011
                    Monument to Miami Street 115 kV: Upgrade Line Trap at Monument             Summer
11CP-EMI-005
                    Street                                                                      2011
                                                                                                Winter
12CP-EAI-001        Calico Rock-Melbourne - Upgrade 161kV Line
                                                                                                2014
                    Woodward - Pine Bluff West - Pine Bluff McCamant: Reconductor 115          Summer
12CP-EAI-002
                    kV                                                                          2015
                                                                                               Summer
12CP-EAI-003        Woodward-115 kV Bus Reconfiguration
                                                                                                2015
                                                                                               Summer
12CP-EAI-004        Monticello East to Reed construct new 115 kV line
                                                                                                2015
                                                                                               Summer
12CP-EAI-005        Camden McGuire - Camden North 115kV Line: Construct New Line
                                                                                                2016
                                                                                               Summer
12CP-EAI-006        Holland Bottoms to Jacksonville North: Reconductor 115 kV Line
                                                                                                2016
                                                                                               Summer
12CP-EGL-001        Lockhart: Construct a new 230 kV Distribution substation
                                                                                                2013
                                                                                               Summer
12CP-EGL-002        Zachary - New 230 kV distribution substation
                                                                                                2014
                                                                                               Summer
12CP-ELL-001        Gypsy to Luling: Upgrade line bay bus and jumpers at Luling
                                                                                                2012
                    Franklin 500 KV Substation - Reconfigure line bays in ring bus such that    Winter
12CP-EMI-001
                    McKnight line and Adams Creek line do not share a common breaker            2016
                    Getwell Area Improvements
                    Construct new Senatobia Industrial substation.                             Summer
12CP-EMI-002-1
                    Cut in Senatobia to Sardis 115 kV line into new substation and add new      2016
                    230-115 kV autotransformer
                    Getwell Area Improvements
                                                                                               Summer
12CP-EMI-002-2      Construct new 230 kV line from Getwell to new Senatobia Industrial 230-
                                                                                                2016
                    115 kV substation.
                    Northeast Jackson to Klean Steel - Upgrade CT and Jumpers/Risers at        Summer
12CP-EMI-003
                    NE Jackson                                                                  2012
                                                                                                Winter
12CP-ETI-001        Reconductor Sabine to Port Neches Bulk (Line 515)
                                                                                                2014
                                                                                               Summer
12CP-ETI-002        Grimes Substation - Add 3rd 345-138 kV Auto
                                                                                                2014
                                                                                               Summer
12CP-ETI-003        Bentwater Substation: Add 138 kV Capacitor Bank
                                                                                                2013
                    Conroe Area Switching Station: tie lines Longmire to Fish Creek and        Summer
12CP-ETI-004
                    Conroe to Woodhaven into new switching station                              2013
                    Table 1 - New Projects in the Draft 2012-2014 Construction Plan




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2012 ICT Reliability Assessment - DRAFT



Completed Projects from the 2011-2013 Construction Plan
Projects that have been completed since 2011-2013 Construction Plan Update 1 (2/23/2011)
                                                                                             Actual In-
      CP ID                                     Project Name                                  service
                                                                                               Date
                    Transmission Service (Aquilla)
 10CP-EAI-016-2                                                                              3/2/11
                     Upgrade Bismarck - Alpine 115 kV Line to 176 MVA
                    Transmission Service (Aquilla)
 10CP-EAI-016-3                                                                              3/22/11
                     Upgrade Alpine - Amity 115 kV Line to 176 MVA
                    Mabelvale to LR Mann Road 115 kV line: Replace switches and risers
 10CP-EAI-025                                                                                4/12/11
                    at Mabelvale and upgrade bus at LR Mann Road
                    Mabelvale to LR Alexander 115 kV line: Replace switches and risers at
 10CP-EAI-026                                                                                4/13/11
                    Mabelvale and upgrade bus at LR Mann Road
                    Maumelle East SS to Morgan 115 kV line: Replace switch and bus at
 10CP-EAI-029                                                                                4/12/11
                    Maumelle East SS
                    Heber Springs South to Heber Springs Industrial 161 kV line: Replace
 10CP-EAI-030                                                                                4/25/11
                    bus at Heber Springs South
 10CP-EGL-005       Alchem - Monochem 138 kV Line: Upgrade 138 kV line to 275 MVA            5/24/11
                    Acadiana Area Improvement Project
 10CP-EGL-006-1      Phase 1 Projects                                                        5/6/11
                      Construct new Sellers Road to Meaux 230 kV Line
                    Acadiana Area Improvement Project
 10CP-EGL-006-2      Phase 1 Projects                                                        5/6/11
                     Add 450 MVA, 230-138 kV auto at Meaux
                    Acadiana Area Improvement Project
                     Phase 1 Projects
 10CP-EGL-006-4                                                                              5/6/11
                     Add new 500 kV position for Cleco autotransformer at Richard

                    Krotz Springs to Line 642 Tap 138 kV line: Upgrade bus at Colonial
 10CP-EGL-013                                                                                3/14/11
                    Springs Tap
 10CP-EGL-014       Livonia to Line 643 Tap 138 kV line: Upgrade riser at Livonia            3/16/11
                    Big Three to Carlyss 230 kV line: Upgrade bus, switch, and jumpers at
 10CP-EGL-016                                                                                5/24/11
                    Carlyss 230 kV substation
                    Carlyss to Rose Bluff 230 kV line: Upgrade bus, switch, and jumpers at
 10CP-EGL-022                                                                                5/23/11
                    Carlyss 230 kV substation
 10CP-ELL-011       Barataria to Ninemile 115 kV line: Replace line Trap                     4/11/11

 10CP-EMI-008       Florence - Florence SS - Star 115 kV Line: Upgrade to at least 240 MVA   4/7/11

 10CP-EMI-009       Waterways - Vicksburg East 115 kV Line: Upgrade to at least 240 MVA      4/27/11
                    McAdams Area Upgrades
 10CP-EMI-011-2      McAdams - Pickens 230 kV line: Upgrade to Double-Bundled 954            5/18/11
                    ACSR (880 MVA)
                    Western Region Reliability Improvement Plan Phase 3 Interim (Part 3).
 10CP-ETI-011                                                                                5/24/11
                     Upgrade South Beaumont to Fontenot Corner 138 kV line
                    Western Region Reliability Improvement Plan Phase 3 Interim (Part 2)
 10CP-ETI-012       Jacinto-Lewis Creek: Convert to 230 kV operation.                        3/2/11
                     Add 500 MVA 230-138 Auto at Lewis Creek
 10CP-ETI-014       Tamina to Cedar Hill 138 kV line: Upgrade                                4/5/11
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2012 ICT Reliability Assessment - DRAFT


                                                                                               Actual In-
      CP ID                                       Project Name                                  service
                                                                                                 Date
                     Lewis Creek to Caney Creek 138 kV line: Upgrade bus, jumpers and
 10CP-ETI-018                                                                                  4/11/11
                     risers at Lewis Creek
                     Lewis Creek to Alden 138 kV line: Upgrade bus and jumpers at Lewis
 10CP-ETI-019                                                                                  3/21/11
                     Creek and Alden
                     Inland Orange to McLewis 230 kV line: Upgrade risers at Inland Orange
 10CP-ETI-020                                                                                  5/11/11
                     and switch 22628 at McLewis
 10CP-ETI-021        Hartburg to Inland Orange 230 kV line: Upgrade risers at Inland Orange    2/18/11
                     Chem Rd to Dupont Sabine 3 138 kV line: Upgrade metering CT at
 10CP-ETI-025                                                                                  3/7/11
                     Dupont Sabine
 10CP-ETI-026        Orange to Bunch Gully 138 kV line: Upgrade bus and risers at Orange       5/25/11
                     Cypress to Lumberton 138 kV line: Upgrade bus at Lumberton and
 10CP-ETI-029                                                                                  3/21/11
                     Cypress
 10CP-ETI-030        Goslin to Conroe Bulk 138 kV line: Upgrade bus differential at Conroe.    5/26/11
                     Woodward to Pine Bluff Watson Chapel: Upgrade bus at PB Watson
 11CP-EAI-013                                                                                  4/26/11
                     Chapel
 11CP-EGL-012        Carlyss to Nelson 230 kV: Upgrade station equipment at Carlyss            5/23/11
 11CP-ELL-006        Hooker to Waterford 230 kV line - Upgrade station equipment               5/17/11
 11CP-ELL-007        Waterford to Union Carbide 230 kV line - Upgrade station equipment        5/26/11
 11CP-ELL-008        Union Carbide to Hooker 230 kV line - Upgrade station equipment           4/12/11
 11CP-EMI-005        Miami to Monument Street: Upgrade line trap at Monument Street            5/26/11
 11CP-ETI-011        Port Neches to Linde: Upgrade station equipment at Port Neches            5/2/11
                   Table 2 - Completed Projects from the 2011-2013 Construction Plan


Other Changes between the Update 1 (2011-13) and Draft (2012-14) Plans
Projects that have had modifications made to the expected in-service dates (ISD) and other changes:
       CP ID                        Project Name                                      Change
                     Mayflower - Reconfigure 500 kV bus
 11CP-EAI-002                                                      Moved to Horizon Plan (12HZ-EAI-001)
                     (eliminate breaker failure impact on autos)
                                                                   Moved to Horizon Plan as a result of new
                     Convert Sunset Substation to 138 kV: Cut
 11CP-EGL-003                                                      Colton Road 138 kV substation (12HZ-EGL-
                     in Scott to East Opelousa 138 kV line.
                                                                   005)
                     Port Hudson to Zachary REA - Upgrade          Being replaced by Zachary - New Distribution
 11CP-EGL-006
                     line                                          Station
                     Port Hudson Area Improvements - Upgrade       Being replaced by Zachary - New Distribution
 11CP-EGL-007
                     two 138-69 kV autotransformers                Station
                     McManus to Brady Heights - Upgrade 69
 11CP-EGL-009                                                      Moved to Horizon Plan (12HZ-EGL-004)
                     kV line
                     Bayou Verrett - Add 40.7 MVAR Capacitor       Project no longer needed based on latest load
 11CP-ELL-004
                     Bank                                          forecast




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      CP ID                        Project Name                                       Change
                     West Memphis to Birmingham Steel 500 kV
                     line flowgate: Replace 500 kV breaker, six    Increase flowgate capacity. Moved out to
 10CP-EAI-031
                     line traps, and 2 switches at West Memphis    Summer 2011 due to material delivery
                     500 kV substation
                     Francis 69 kV substation - Add 69 kV          Provide additional voltage support. Moved
 11CP-EGL-008
                     capacitor bank                                from 2012 to 2013.
                     Mt. Olive to Arcadia Project Phase 1
                                                                   Moved to Summer 2013 from Summer 2015
 11CP-ELL-005         Add 115 kV breakers at Arcadia for future
                                                                   based on latest load forecast
                     Mt. Olive to Arcadia line

                                                                   Project was split into two parts. Switches and
                     Fireco to Copol 69 kV line: Upgrade line
 11CP-EGL-013                                                      trap projected to be completed Summer 2012
                     and equipment
                                                                   and reconductor Summer 2014.

                     Ebony 161 kV Switching Station: Install 5
                     Breaker Ring Bus
                      Lines Terminating Into New Ebony
                     Substation (ratings unchanged):
                      Ebony - Kuhn Road 161 kV Line
                                                                   Funding Status changed from Proposed & In-
 10CP-EAI-018         Ebony - WM Lehi - WM Polk - WM EHV
                                                                   target to Approved.
                     161 kV Line
                      Ebony - WM Dover - WM Gateway 161 kV
                     Line
                      Ebony - Marked Tree 161 kV Line
                      Ebony - WM Lehi - WM EHV 161 kV Line

                     Hot Springs Hamilton (Albright) - Carpenter   Modified project from HS Hamilton (Albright) to
                     Dam: Construct new 115 kV Line and            Bismarck TO HS Hamilton (Albright) to
 11CP-EAI-007
                     convert Mountain Pine South to ring bus       Carpenter Dam. Removed capacitor bank
                     stations.                                     addition at Milton.

                                                                   Former Horizon Plan Project 11HZ-EAI-002
 11CP-EAI-010        Hilo 10.8 MVAR Capacitor Bank                 Changed to Hilo from Hermitage due to
                                                                   constructability

                                                            Formerly Caldwell expand capacitor bank.
                     Somerville 69 kV Substation: Add
 11CP-ETI-006                                               Proposed for Somerville based on
                     capacitor bank
                                                            constructability
           Table 3 - Other Changes between the Update 1 (2011-13) and Draft (2012-14) Plans
The full Draft 2012-2014 Construction Plan is available on the ICT Planning Page on Entergy’s OASIS.




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2012 ICT Reliability Assessment - DRAFT


Reliability Assessment and Construction Plan Evaluation Results


Near-Term Period – 2013 and 2017
Summary results of system intact and single contingency scans—with Entergy’s draft 2012-2014 Construction
Plan projects included—are provided in Attachment B to this report showing thermal overloads, low voltages,
and high voltages. The full contingency scan results are available on the ICT Planning Page on Entergy’s
OASIS. The attachments reflect the results of both bus-to-bus and breaker-to-breaker analyses and the
application of the 100 MW Rule discussed above.

An analysis of system intact conditions revealed few problems. The results revealed an overload on the
Mossville-Canal 69 kV line starting 2017 winter. Starting 2013 summer, there is low voltage projected at the
Calvert 69 kV substation located at the end of a radial line Texas. Low voltage is projected on the 115 kV
system in the Pine Bluff, Arkansas area. Low voltage is projected on the Glenwood – Mount Ida 115 kV radial
line starting 2017. High voltages are noted on the secondary sides of a few three winding transformers.

An analysis of single contingency conditions revealed overloads and low voltages in 2013 that do not appear in
later years. This is primarily because Construction Plan projects that have in-service dates between 2013 and
2017 were included in the 2017 models, but not the 2013 models. In many cases, there are draft Construction
Plan projects which will address these problems, though they will not be in-service before 2013. Among the
areas in this category are:

         •   Jasper – Rayburn 138 kV overload
         •   Blakely – Mountain Pine South 115 kV overload
         •   Hot Springs – Carpenter Dam 115 kV overload
         •   Hot Springs South 115 kV low voltage
         •   Warren East 115 kV low voltage
         •   Mount Olive 500 kV high voltage

In addition, there are a few potential problem areas in the 2013 and 2017 seasons that do not currently have
upgrades identified in the Construction Plan. Of particular note are:

         •   Newton – Leach – Toledo Bend 138 kV overload (op-guide)
         •   Clarksdale 230/115 kV auto overload (op-guide)
         •   Woodward South – Pine Bluff Watkins 115 kV overload
         •   North Little Rock Levy – West Gate 115 kV overload
         •   West Memphis 161 kV area low voltage
         •   Carmel – Warren West 115 kV low voltage
         •   Pine Bluff 115 kV area low voltage

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2012 ICT Reliability Assessment - DRAFT


         •   Helena 115 kV area low voltage (op-guide)
         •   Calvert 69 kV low voltage
         •   Wolf Creek 500 kV high voltage

Some of these problems may be manageable through Operating Guides. The impact of Operating Guides will
be determined during the development of the Base Plan later in the planning cycle. The Operating Guides that
were used to develop the current 2011 Base Plan and 2011-2013 Construction Plan are available on the ICT
Planning Page on Entergy’s OASIS.

There are a few high voltages associated with contingencies primarily at transformer secondaries and are not of
concern, particularly during peak periods.

Low Hydro
In addition to the base case conditions, an analysis was performed to simulate limited availability of hydro
resources during summer peak periods. The three (3) summer models (2013, 2017, and 2020) were tested for
the unavailability of two (2) large units individually and with multiple units at 50% of their base case dispatch. A
single contingency scan was then performed for each case.

The Low Hydro scenarios revealed several potential problems that either manifested only under these
conditions or were made more severe. In some cases, this may indicate a need to accelerate planned upgrades
or mitigation plans or develop new ones. Areas in Arkansas which these conditions appeared include the
system around Quitman, Trumann, Jonesboro, Calico Rock, and Mountain Home. In Texas, these conditions
appeared to impact areas around Jasper, Leach, and Buna. A list of these conditions is included in Attachment
B.

Load Pockets
Load pocket sensitivities were performed according to the contingencies defined in the Planning Criteria for the
Western Region, Amite South, and Downstream of Gypsy (DSG) load pockets. In general, the Planning Criteria
calls for load pockets to be planned to withstand simultaneous loss of both a large generator and a transmission
line. Potential problems identified from the load pocket sensitivities may indicate a need to accelerate planned
upgrades or show need for new projects. In Western Region, the criteria requires the system to withstand the
loss of one (1) Lewis Creek unit and a transmission line. In Amite South, the criteria requires for the loss of the
largest unit (currently Waterford 3) and the most critical transmission element (Waterford-Willow Glen 500 kV).
In DSG, the criteria requires the system to withstand the loss of one (1) large unit and a transmission line. The
system was tested (1) for loss of Ninemile 5 and a 230 kV line into the load pocket, and (2) for loss of Michoud 3
and a 230 kV line into the load pocket. The sensitivities were performed on the 2017 summer model with
Approved Construction Plan projects included.




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2012 ICT Reliability Assessment - DRAFT


The Western Region analysis produced an overload on the East Gate – Line 533 Tap 138 kV and made the
Splendora – Jacinto 138 kV overload worse by about 9%.

The DSG analysis produced a slight overload on the Valentine – Clovelly 115 kV line.

A list of these overloads is included in Attachment B. None of the load pocket scenarios produced any voltage
issues that did not occur under single contingency conditions.


Longer-Term Period – 2020
Analysis of the 2020 model indicated a number of overloads and voltage problems that do not appear in the
earlier seasons. These indicate potential emerging problems that may manifest with increasing load levels.
Because they are beyond the near-term period, it is not expected that these conditions will require upgrades in
the next Base Plan, but may indicate areas that should be monitored and considered in the development of
long-term plans.

         •   East Gate – Line 533 Tap 138 kV overload
         •   China – Sabine 230kV overload
         •   Mid County – Port Neches Bulk 138 kV overload
         •   Carlyss 230/69 kV auto overload
         •   Holiday – Lafayette 69 kV overload
         •   Hot Springs Industrial – Union Carbide 115 kV overload
         •   Pansy 69 kV low voltage
         •   Metro – Oak Ridge 138 kV low voltage
         •   Sinclair Hearne 69 kV low voltage
         •   Hickory Ridge 138 kV low voltage
         •   Truman West 161 kV low voltage
         •   Ebony 161 kV low voltage
         •   Cabot – Garner 115 kV low voltage

In contrast to these new problems, other loading and voltage problems in the 2020 model can be characterized
as extensions of problems starting in 2017. These should be taken into consideration in the development of
Entergy’s Construction Plan in order to optimize the economic benefit of currently-planned construction projects.

         •   Conroe 138 kV breaker (splits the bus) overload
         •   Conroe - Plantation 138 kV overload
         •   Splendora - Jacinto 138 kV overload
         •   Lake Charles Bulk – Chlomal 69 kV overload
         •   Vienna – Ruston 115 kVoverload

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2012 ICT Reliability Assessment - DRAFT


           •   Downsville – Ruston East 115 kV overload
           •   Lake Village Bagby – Lake Macon 115 kV overload
           •   Hot Springs West – Industrial 115 kV overload
           •   Mabelvale 500/115 kV autos overload
           •   Calico Rock – Norfork 161 kV overload
           •   Truman – Truman West 161 kV overload
           •   New Caney 138 kV low voltage
           •   Winsor – Bayou Fannett 69 kV low voltage


Stakeholder Participation
Attachment K of Entergy’s OATT describes the planning process which includes stakeholder involvement
through the Long-Term Transmission Issues Working Group (LTTIWG). The LTTIWG is no longer active, so the
ICT is now including stakeholder involvement through the ICT Stakeholder Policy Committee (SPC).
Stakeholder participation and review is a key function of the ICT SPC, which incorporates vital input from
stakeholders throughout the planning process. ICT SPC meetings are open and the agendas are posted on
SPP.org. Entergy stakeholders are encouraged to actively participate in the ICT SPC to ensure that all points of
view are represented in the transmission planning process. Stakeholders are invited to comment on this
Reliability Assessment and the subsequent development of the final Construction Plan and Base Plan. Formal
avenues for stakeholder involvement that have been completed and that are planned in this planning cycle
include:

           •   Review of and input to the Reliability Assessment Scope at the January 20, 2011 SPC
           •   Review of and input to the more detailed Reliability Assessment Scope at the March 17, 2011 SPC
           •   Review of and input to the draft Reliability Assessment - July 2011
           •   Review of and input to the final Reliability Assessment at the Transmission Summit August 23,
               2011
           •   Review of stakeholder comments - September 2011
           •   Review of the draft Base Plan - October/November 2011
           •   Review of the final Base Plan - January 2012
           •   Review of 2012 Base Plan/2012-14 Construction Plan Differences Report - February 2012




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Attachments

Attachment A - Reliability Assessment Scope

Attachment B - Contingency Scan Results
   CPE - System Intact Thermal Overloads
   CPE - Worst Case Single Contingency Thermal Overloads
   CPE - System Intact Low/High Voltages
   CPE - Worst Case Single Contingency Low Voltages
   CPE - Worst Case Single Contingency High Voltages
   Low Hydro Thermal Overload Results
   Low Hydro Low Voltage Results
   Load Pocket Thermal Overloads




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DRAFT – 2012 Reliability Assessment                                                         Attachment A




                            2012 ICT Reliability Assessment Scope


Objective
The objective of the Reliability Assessment is to assess the ability of the Entergy transmission system to
perform according to Entergy’s Planning Criteria and the ICT’s planning criteria enhancements in both
near-term and long-term horizons.

Models
• RA Models
       Base Case 2010-Series Update 1 with Approved 2011-2013 CP projects
       Summer and Winter Peak 2013 and 2017 for near-term.
       Summer Peak 2020 for longer-term.

•   CPE Models
          Base Case 2010-Series Update 1 with Approved and Proposed 2012-2014 CP projects
          Summer and Winter Peak 2013 and 2017 for near-term.
          Summer Peak 2020 for longer-term.

•   Low Hydro Analysis Models
          Base Case 2010-Series Update 1 with 2011-2013 Approved CP projects
          Summers 2013, 2017 and 2020
                 Bull Shoals – off
                 Greers Ferry – off
                 Sam Rayburn – off
                 Bull Shoals, Greers Ferry, Norfork, and Table Rock at 50% capacity

•   Load Pocket Analysis Models (N-1, G-1 evaluation)
           Base Case 2010-Series Update 1 with 2011-2013 Approved CP projects
           Summer 2017
                  Western Region
                      - Lewis Creek U1 – off
                  Amite South
                      - Waterford U3 – off
                  DSG
                      - Nine Mile U5 – off
                      - Michoud U3 – off

Model Preparation
The Base Case Model will be updated to reflect:
   1. The latest confirmed transmission service reservations.
   2. Updated topology: equipment which has been newly placed in-service.
   3. Approved and Proposed projects from the 2012-2014 DRAFT Construction Plan projects in the
       season in which the facilities are expected to be complete and for all seasons thereafter.
DRAFT – 2012 Reliability Assessment                                                        Attachment A



Software
• PSSE v30
• MUST 9.1


Contingency Scans (BP, Low Hydro, RA, CPE)
• Category A
         The Base Case Model will be evaluated under normal, system-intact conditions.
         Monitored elements must remain within the thermal and voltage limits specified in Entergy’s
         Transmission Local Planning Criteria for Category A, currently flows less than 100% of
         RATEA; voltages between 0.95 and 1.05 per unit.
         Identify all elements that do not meet the Category A limits.

•   Category B
           N-1 contingency scans were run on the Base Case Models.
           Monitored elements must remain within the thermal and voltage limits specified in Entergy’s
           Transmission Local Planning Criteria for Category B, currently flows less than 100% of
           RATEA; voltages between 0.92 and 1.05 per unit.
           For each monitored element that does not remain within these limits, the breaker-to-breaker
           circuit for the contingency was identified and an analysis was done with the entire circuit out
           of service, if the breaker-to-breaker outage differs from the simulated outage.
            (ICT 100MW rule) If there is more than 100MW of consequential load between breakers
           then the bus to bus contingency was used to identify overloads and voltage issues.

•   Monitored Elements

            Entergy Internal:
                   Transmission elements within Entergy’s footprint (including embedded Areas) with
                   nominal voltage 69 kV and higher.
                   Ties to outside Areas at 69 kV and higher.

            CLECO & LUS: Transmission elements with nominal voltage 69 kV and higher.

            All other first-tier Areas (AECI, SOCO, TVA, SMEPA, SWPA, AEPW, OKGE, EMDE):
            Transmission elements with nominal voltage 345 kV and higher.

•   Contingencies
           Same as Monitored Elements


Load Pocket Contingencies
The contingencies below will be applied to each corresponding scenario of the Load Pocket Analysis
models that can be found in the models section above. This creates the appropriate N1G1 scenarios for
each load pocket defined in Entergy’s Local Planning Criteria Section 7.6.

Western Contingencies
          China – Jacinto 230kV
          China – Porter 230kV
          Crockett – Grimes 230kV
DRAFT – 2012 Reliability Assessment            Attachment A


           Doucette – Corrigan Bulk 230kV
           Cypress – Poco 138kV
           Cypress – Hightower 138kV
           Dayton Bulk – New Caney 138kV
           Dayton Bulk – New Long John 138kV

•   Amite South Contingencies
           Waterford – Willow Glen 500kV

•   DSG Contingencies
          Michoud – Front Street 230kV
          Nine Mile – Waterford 230kV
          Gypsy – Wesco 230kV
          Gypsy – University City 230kV
          Gypsy – Ponchartrain 230kV
DRAFT ‐ 2012 ICT Reliability Assessment                                                                  Attachment B


Construction Plan Evaluation (CPE) THERMAL OVERLOADS
Entergy Draft 2012‐2014 Construction Plan included in 2010 Series Update 2 powerflow models
Flows reported as  % of RATEA 

System Intact Overloads
                                                                2013        2013        2017    2017       2020 
Monitored Element                                              Summer       Winter     Summer   Winter    Summer
335094 2MOSSVL    69.000 335102 2CANAL‐LA    69.000 1                                           100.8


Worst Case Single Contingency Overloads
                                                                2013        2013        2017    2017       2020 
Monitored Element                                              Summer       Winter     Summer   Winter    Summer
334026*4GRIMES     138.00 334060 4MT.ZION    138.00 1                       100.1
334099 4CONROE2    138.00 334103*4PLANTAT    138.00 1                                    102                115.7
334099*4CONROE2    138.00 334104 4CONROE1    138.00 1                                   111.1               123.3
334113 4EASTGAT    138.00 334115*46L533TP8   138.00 1                                                       107.5
334118 4SPLENDR    138.00 334208*4JACINTO    138.00 1                                   101.2               113.3
334204 6CHINA      230.00 334434*6SABINE     230.00 1                                                       102.5
334282 4RAYBURN    138.00 334330*4JASPER     138.00 1            108.6        130
334319*4CYPRESS    138.00 334320 8CYPRESS    500.00 1                         101
334333 4NEWTONB    138.00 334334*4LEACH      138.00 1                        114.2              109.4
334334 4LEACH      138.00 334335*4TOLEDO     138.00 1                        116.1              111.4
334360 6HELBIG     230.00 334361*6MCLEWIS    230.00 1                        103.4
334412 4MID CO     138.00 334413*4PNEC BK    138.00 1                                                       105.7
335045 2CARLYSS    69.000 335070*6CARLYSS    230.00 2                                                       100.1
335211 2LC BULK    69.000 335217*2CHLOMAL    69.000 1                                   110.8               110.5
335411*2HOLIDAY    69.000 335412 2LAFAYET    69.000 1                                                       101.4
337098 3CLARKMUN   115.00 337100*6MEPSCLK    230.00 1            120.8       121.4      121.7   120.8       121.9
337098*3CLARKMUN   115.00 337099 3CLARKD     115.00 1            107.7       116.2      109.2   114.6       109.5
337371 3VIENNA‐LA  115.00 337372*3RUSTON     115.00 1                                   100.5
337374*3DWNSVL     115.00 303311 3RUSTNE     115.00 1                                   103.5
337592*3BAGBY      115.00 337595 3MACON*     115.00 1                                   113.6               115.7
337619 3WOODW‐S    115.00 337621*3PB‐WAT     115.00 1            110.1                  113.6               113.1
337685 3HSEHVW     115.00 337734*3HS‐IND     115.00 1                                   104.2               109.2
337710 3BLAKY      115.00 337713*3MTPN‐S     115.00 1            101.8
337717*3HS‐S       115.00 337718 3CARPE      115.00 1            131.4
337731*3HS‐E*      115.00 337733 3HS‐UC      115.00 1                                                       101.3
337733*3HS‐UC      115.00 337734 3HS‐IND     115.00 1                                   101.9               106.7
337804 3MABEL      115.00 337808*8MABEL      500.00 1                                   103.2               108.9
337804 3MABEL      115.00 337808*8MABEL      500.00 2                                    103                108.7
338130 5CALCR      161.00 505448*NORFORK5    161.00 1                                   107.4               111.3
338169*5TRUMAN     161.00 338707 5TRUM‐W#    161.00 1                                   108.3               122.5
338484 3NLR‐LV     115.00 338485*3NLR‐WG     115.00 1            116.8                  126.7               133.1
500190*COCODR 6    230.00 500230 COUGH  4    138.00 1                                           101.7
500280*ELEESV 6    230.00 500770 RODEMR 6    230.00 1            100.3                  100.7               102.4
DRAFT ‐ 2012 ICT Reliability Assessment                                                         Attachment B

CPE ‐ System Intact Voltage Results
Entergy Draft 2012‐2014 Construction Plan included in 2010 Series Update 2 powerflow models
System intact voltage reported in P.U. for voltages outside this range: (.95 < v < 1.05)
Single contingency voltage reported in P.U. for voltages outside this range: (.92 < v < 1.05)

System Intact Low Voltage Results
                                      2013     2013           2017     2017       2020 
Monitored Bus                        Summer    Winter        Summer    Winter    Summer
334000 2CALVERT     69                0.924                   0.921    0.947      0.912
337627 3PB‐IP*      115               0.948                                        0.95
337628 3PB‐IP       115               0.947                   0.95                0.949
337629 3PBPORT      115               0.946                   0.95                0.948
337630 3POLSKY      115               0.947                   0.95                0.949
337676 3GLENWD      115                                                 0.943
337677 3MT IDA      115                                                 0.934     0.948



System Intact High Voltage Results
                                      2013     2013           2017     2017       2020 
Monitored Bus                        Summer    Winter        Summer    Winter    Summer
338552 2HARRISON‐S1 69                         1.06369                 1.06138
338578 2OPPELO 69
338578 2OPPELO 69                              1 0568
                                               1.0568                  1.05554
                                                                       1 05554
338581 2DELUCE1 69                             1.06354                 1.06207
338583 2WARD1 69                               1.05086                 1.05725
338585 2HEBERSP1 69                             1.055                  1.05456
                                                          

Worst Case Single Contingency Low Voltage Results
                                   2013      2013             2017     2017       2020 
Monitored Element                Summer      Winter          Summer    Winter    Summer
303133 4VATCAN     138.00            0.90049   0.91417
334000 2CALVERT    69.000            0.90203                 0.88748             0.8786
334001 2SINHERN    69.000                                                        0.91331
334092 4METRO2     138.00                                                        0.91462
334093 4OAKRIDG    138.00                                                        0.91267
334111 4NEWCANY    138.00                                    0.91642             0.89837
334112 4HICKORY    138.00                                                        0.91183
334265 2WINSHIR    69.000                                    0.89712   0.91673   0.88646
334266 2CRAIGEN    69.000                                    0.91254             0.90406
334267 2BYFANTA    69.000                                    0.91288             0.90444
334268 2BFANNET    69.000                                    0.91288             0.90444
334269 2PANSY      69.000                                                        0.91615
336092 3CARLSL     115.00                      0.91533       0.91405   0.9106    0.91249
337574 3CARMEL*    115.00            0.9185                                      0.91923
337575 3WARR‐W     115.00            0.91367                 0.91536             0.91412
337576 3WARR‐E     115.00            0.91922
DRAFT ‐ 2012 ICT Reliability Assessment                                              Attachment B

Worst Case Single Contingency Low Voltage Results
                                   2013      2013       2017     2017       2020 
Monitored Element                Summer      Winter    Summer    Winter    Summer
337627 3PB‐IP*     115.00          0.90612             0.90896             0.91042
337628 3PB‐IP      115.00          0.90555             0.90839             0.90987
337629 3PBPORT     115.00          0.90477             0.90757             0.90902
337630 3POLSKY     115.00          0.90555             0.90839             0.90987
337717 3HS‐S       115.00          0.91952
337980 3ELAINE     115.00          0.9157                                  0.91653
337981 3MARVEL     115.00          0.90832             0.91423             0.90793
337982 3BARTON     115.00          0.90608             0.91173             0.9054
337983 3HELN‐W*    115.00          0.90223             0.90767             0.90134
337984 3HELN‐C     115.00          0.90068             0.90605             0.89972
338006 3CABOT      115.00                                                  0.89659
338007 3BEEBE      115.00                                                  0.90659
338008 3GARNER*    115.00                                                  0.91784
338009 3T.E.MC     115.00                                                  0.91768
338160 5EBON S*    161.00                                                  0.91865
338161 5WM‐EHV     161.00          0.91929                                 0.91822
338164 5MARION‐AR  161.00                                                  0.91843
338410 5WM‐DOV     161.00          0.91958                                 0.9171
338411 5WM‐GAT 161 00
338411 5WM‐GAT     161.00          0 91941
                                   0.91941                                 0.91704
                                                                           0 91704
338412 5WM‐LH1     161.00                                                  0.91808
338413 5WM‐LH2     161.00          0.91987                                 0.91772
338414 5WM‐POK     161.00          0.91869                                 0.91722
338568 2TRUMANN‐W1 69.000                                                  0.91175
338583 2WARD1      69.000                                                  0.91775
338707 5TRUM‐W#    161.00                                                  0.91175
338756 3WARD#      115.00                                                  0.8948
338880 3HELN‐I#    115.00          0.90052             0.90594             0.89961



Worst Case Single Contingency High Voltage Results
Monitored Element                   13S        13W       17S       17W       20S
337010 8WOLFCRK    500.00         1.05042    1.05881   1.05043   1.05387   1.05042
337181 5HN LAK     161.00         1.05325
337368 8MTOLIV     500.00         1.0738
337754 8ETTA       500.00         1.05949    1.05861   1.05602   1.05869   1.05625
337755 8DUKEHS1    500.00         1.05949    1.05861   1.05602   1.05869   1.05625
337756 8DUKEHS2    500.00         1.05949    1.05861   1.05602   1.05869   1.05625
337965 3STUT N*    115.00                    1.05193             1.0508
337966 3STUT‐N     115.00                    1.0516              1.05044
337967 3RICUS      115.00                    1.05578             1.05466
338552 2HARRISON‐S169.000         1.05714    1.0727    1.05497   1.07055   1.05612
338581 2DELUCE1    69.000                    1.07144             1.07002
338583 2WARD1      69.000                    1.05795             1.06552
DRAFT ‐ 2012 ICT Reliability Assessment                                                                   Attachment B

Low Hydro Thermal Overload Results
Entergy 2011‐2013 Construction Plan Approved Projects included in the 2010 Series Update 1 powerflow models
Flows reported as  % of RATEA 

Worst Case overloads that are more severe (5%+) or appear only for a low‐hydro scenario
                                                                    2013         2017      2020 
Monitored Element                                                 Summer       Summer     Summer
334282 4RAYBURN    138.00 334330*4JASPER     138.00 1               117.5        152.4     146.9
334333 4NEWTONB    138.00 334334*4LEACH      138.00 1                            103.3     107.5
334334*4LEACH      138.00 334335 4TOLEDO     138.00 1                            110.8     115.3
337926 5QUITMN     161.00 338112*5HEBR‐S     161.00 1                            100.8     111.7
337926 5QUITMN     161.00 338831*5BEE BR#    161.00 1                            101.2
338130 5CALCR      161.00 338131*5MELBRN     161.00 1               104.2        109.3     105.8
338130*5CALCR      161.00 505448 NORFORK5    161.00 1                            104.2     101.6
338138 5MORFLD     161.00 338142*5ISES‐1     161.00 1                             102      101.9
338169*5TRUMAN     161.00 338707 5TRUM‐W#    161.00 1                                      126.9
338170 5JONES      161.00 505418*JONESBO5    161.00 1                                      108.4
338758*5HEBR‐N#    161.00 505422 GREERSF5    161.00 1                                      108.4
DRAFT ‐ 2012 ICT Reliability Assessment                                                                   Attachment B

Low Hydro Thermal Overload Results
Entergy 2011‐2013 Construction Plan Approved Projects included in the 2010 Series Update 1 powerflow models
Voltage reported in P.U. for voltages outside this range: (.92 < v < 1.05)

Voltage reported for issues that occurred for a LH scenario
                                      2013         2017         2020 
Monitored Element                   Summer       Summer       Summer
334304 4NBUNA      138.00            0.88783      0.86346     0.85578
334305 4BUNASW     138.00            0.88786      0.86349     0.85581
334306 4TEMPLE     138.00            0.88786      0.86349     0.85581
334307 4BUNA       138.00            0.88683      0.86239     0.85467
338123 5BULLSH*    161.00                                     0.91785
338124 5BULLSH     161.00                                      0.9178
338125 5MT HOM     161.00                                     0.90143
338129 5MTPLEASANT 161.00                                     0.90377
338130 5CALCR      161.00                                     0.91034
338131 5MELBRN     161.00                                     0.89695
338132 5SAGE*      161.00                                      0.8998
338133 5GUION      161.00                                     0.89317
338134 5MT VIEW    161.00                                      0.887
338135 5CUSHMN     161.00                                     0.90869
338136 5CAVE       161.00
338136 5CAVE       161.00                                     0.90708
338137 5BATEVL     161.00                                     0.91058
338138 5MORFLD     161.00                         0.8688      0.91337
338220 5HIGHLND    161.00                                     0.90649
338221 2IMBODN     69.000                                     0.91625
338230 3JIMHL      115.00                                     0.91553
338566 2JONESBO‐W1 69.000                                     0.91515
338568 2TRUMANN‐W1 69.000                                     0.91943
338585 2HEBERSP1   69.000                         0.77292     0.65716
338606 2MIDWAY‐JD1 69.000                         0.91666     0.89738
338608 2MIDWAY‐JD2 69.000                         0.91666     0.89738
338702 5JONE‐W#    161.00                                     0.91515
338707 5TRUM‐W#    161.00                                     0.91943
338758 5HEBR‐N#    161.00                         0.7536      0.64073
338813 5MIDWAY#    161.00                         0.91666     0.89738
338814 5SOLAND#    161.00                                     0.90126
DRAFT ‐ 2012 ICT Reliability Assessment                                                                                    Attachment B


Load Pocket Thermal Overload Results
2010 Series Update 1 ‐ 2017 Summer (Entergy 2011‐2013 Construction Plan Approved Projects included)
Flows reported as  % of RATEA 

N‐1,G‐1 Overloads                                                                                                     G‐1
                                                                                                      Base  Nine Mile  Lewis Creek 
Overload                                                         Contingency (N‐1)                    Case     U5          U1
334113 4EASTGAT    138.00 334115*46L533TP8   138.00 1            CHINA ‐ PORTER 230kV                                     105.3
334118 4SPLENDR    138.00 334208*4JACINTO    138.00 1            CHINA ‐ PORTER 230kV                 101                 109.5
336037*3VLNTIN     115.00 336080 3CLOVEL     115.00 1            NINEMILE ‐ WATERFORD 230kV                   102.6

								
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