NWS Science & Technology
Roadmap, V 1.0
(under review, debate, coordination)
Preparing for Tomorrow… Today
Don Berchoff, Director Office of Science & Technology
June 25, 2009 Prepared For Our Partners
NWS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP
Overview
Preparing for Tomorrow… Today
Guiding Principles
Roadmap Construct
Service Area Goals; Research Needs and Opportunities
Potential Societal Benefits
Example Service Area Roadmap
Enabling Capabilities Goals
Schedule & Milestones
2
Guiding Principles
NWS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP
OST Mission: Drive S&T Advances into NWS
Operations
Preparing for Tomorrow… Today
Meet NWS Strategic Plan S & T objectives
Develop service area stretch goals to rally and
influence Nation’s research strategies, plans and
investments
Harness the Nation’s best expertise to solve
scientific challenges
Field next generation observing/forecast systems
to…
Ensure timely, accurate and relevant weather information for
governmental decision makers, general public, private
industry
Ensure rapid, on-demand access to information for
all… from sophisticated user to “Joe the plumber”
3
Roadmap Construct
NWS
Strategic
Plan •Observations
•Fire Weather ID Next
•Data Assimilation
•Hydrology Generation
Enabling •Forecasting:
•Aviation
Service Capabilities •Models
•Severe Weather
Science Areas •Post Processing
•Winter Weather
Research •Human Aided
•Marine
Thrusts •Dissemination
•Tropical Weather
•Decision Support
•Climate
Research •Verification & Metrics
•Air Quality Partners •Customer Outreach, Feedback
•Space Weather
Test Beds Technologies
•Tsunami
/Service •Social Sciences
•Sensible Wx & Health Impacts
•Emerging areas Proving
Grounds
(e.g. energy, ecosystems) •Universities
•Government Labs
S&T Research to •Private Industry
Operations
Protection of Life and Property
Enhanced National Economy
4
Service Area Goals and Research
Thrusts
Science Service Key Products/ S&T Goal 2025 Research Needs and
Area Services Examples Opportunities: Examples
Fire Weather Red Flag Warning >24hr Lead Time (LT) Simulations (high-resolution) of integrated
fire weather/behavior
Hydrology Inundation Forecasts Dependable Street Scale Probabilistic Physically based hydrologic models and
Warnings ensembles
Aviation Convection Initiation 30 mins LT Initiation and evolution of convection
Severe Weather Tornado Warning Warn on Forecast, LT > 1hr Improved understanding of tornado
formation and severe weather microphysics
Winter Weather Winter Hazards High-Res User-Defined Thresholds Snow band formation and snow intensity
Marine Storm Warnings Probabilistic Warning, LT > 5 days Improve wave model physics from shelf to
shore
Tropical Weather Hurricane Track, Intensity Errors reduced by 50% Causes of rapid intensity changes
Forecasts
Climate Seasonal/IA Forecasts Accurate 6 month+ LTs on forcing Earth system modeling with ensemble
events prediction and uncertainty
Air Quality Air Quality Predictions Accuracy >85% out to day 5 Advanced simulations of generation and
reactive chemical transport of airborne
particulate matter
Space Weather Geomagnetic Storm >90% accuracy, out to day 2 Data Assimilation: Ionosphere,
Warnings Magnetosphere, and Solar Wind
Tsunami Tsunami Warnings <5 mins after triggering event Enhanced observations and models
Emerging Areas/ Wind Forecasts 1km resolution, 5 min updates Meteorological influences on renewable and
Surface Wx sustainable energy systems
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NWS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP
Potential Societal Benefits
Service Area Improvements Potential Benefits
Preparing for Tomorrow… Today
Tropical Cyclone, Track, Reduce $10B/yr in trop
Intensity, Precip Forecasts cyclone damage
Tornado and Flash Flood Reduce $1B/yr in
Warnings damage from severe wx
Aviation, Fire, and Marine Reduce $60 B/yr losses
Forecasts from air traffic delays
Reduce $4.3B/yr in
Flood and River Predictions flood damage
Reduce mortality from
Air Quality Predictions 50,000/yr from poor AQ
Reduce $365M/yr in
Space Weather losses (power industry)
Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Reduce $7B/yr in
Energy, Agriculture, Ecosys, etc losses (drought) 6
Tropical Cyclone Roadmap
Vision
R&D Needs and Opportunities Finer scale and highly accurate
• Cause of rapid intensity changes track, intensity and inundation
forecasts that trigger appropriate
• Key observations needed for improved forecasting responses resulting in reduced loss
• Air-sea fluxes under quiet and disturbed conditions of life and economic impacts
• Predictability limits
• Vortex-convection-environment interactions
• Microphysics of convection at high-resolution
• Social Science
• Halved track &
• Wind radii forecasts intensity forecast
• Track forecast to 7 to 5 days errors
days
• Wind& surge impact • Warnings and
• Detailed storm- forecasts prior to
surge/inundation guidance to 36-hr
forecasts cyclogenesis
• Improved rapid
• Improved tropical • Communication of
cyclone precip intensity change, accurate, street
estimates POD and FAR level evacuation
2009 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 25
Time 7
NWS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP
Enabling Capabilities Goals
Integrated observing and analysis system
Preparing for Tomorrow… Today
Coupled, integrated environmental modeling: data assimilation, prediction,
post-processing (e.g. ensembles)
Next Generation 4-D Forecast System
Optimize for high impact events
Forecaster decision support tools, applications with government-
centric information architectures
Dynamic training capabilities
4D Digital Weather Information Database (WIDB)
Transformed dissemination/communication/outreach capabilities
Incorporated social sciences strategies in research and operations
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Integrated Observation/Analysis
System
Current Analysis Strategies Future
National Mesonet
Individual Systems Inventory systems, Weather Information
Public and metadata Network of Database
Private standards Networks
Universities
Assess Integrated Radar
interdepend- (Lidar, gap-fillers,
encies, MPAR)
oversampling, Global Systems System C
Radar
gaps, levels of System B
Satellite criticality Multisensor System A
In-Situ platforms Satellites
Upper Air Optimization with Rawindsones
Etc OSEs, OSSEs Integrated Radar System
IOOS
Standards, MADIS
Architectures,
Protocols
Open Architecture
Maximize value of
investment
Coupled, Integrated Environmental
Modeling System
Atmospheric Model Earth System Models
Ocean
Components
Land Surface
Air Quality
Dynamics Physics Chemistry
Space
Couplers Hydrology
Multi-component ensemble Ecosystem
+ Ensembles Weather
Stochastic forcing Industry
Etc
4D Data Assimilation
e.g. 4D Var, EnKF, hybrids Resolution Changes, Downscaling WIDB
Post Processing
Bias Correction, Statistical Methods,
Ensembles
Product Generation
Verification
10
Next Generation 4-D Forecast System
Optimized for High Impact Weather
Events/Uncertainty
Where can I add
What matters? value today?
Where’s the
In-Situ uncertainty?
Post-
Processing
In-Situ
Post-
Processing
Intelligence
Augmentation
NWS Forecaster
Smart Tools Future
System Algorithms
NWS Forecaster
Today Artificial Intelligence
Next Generation 4-D Forecast System
High Impact Weather Events (Notional)
User Input
User Input
NWS informs public decision makers for public safety, security 12
Next Generation 4D
Forecast System
Decision Support Services
Common operating picture to help aid forecasters identify weather
threats with the most impact on airspace operations
Next Generation 4-D
Forecast System:
Decision Support
Emergency
Managers NWS
Forecasters
Weather Information
Database supports
interoperability—
common operating
picture
Advanced Communication/Collaboration Capabilities
IMETS
Responders
Emergency
Operations Center
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Weather Information Database
Weather Private
Industry Industry
Observations Private Sector Forecasting
Numerical
Prediction
Satellites Systems
Postprocessed NWS
Probabilistic Forecaster
Radars Output
WIDB
Cube
Aircraft
Automated Forecast
Surface Systems
Forecast Integration
Soundings
Decision Custom Custom
Support Graphic Alphanumeric
Systems Generators Generators
Governmental Decision Making 15
Transform Dissemination/
Communication/Outreach Architectures
for NWS Users
GIO/GPMO GIS Pros at NWS
GIS Team
NWS Web Team
IRIS
NWS Internal
Shapefiles Customer
Help Desk/
Help
AWIPS
“Tier 1
Desk
Offices using
NOAA
Support”
AWIPS
GIS data
work stations
Legacy
Climate Outlook
Storage NDFD
WIDB Internet
Watches/warnings Access Government
Legacy Data in OGC
Apps Geospatial
Compliant
Agencies
Radar Database
format General Public
Hurricane Tracks
Geo-
WFS Private Weather
database Etc
Industry
WCS
Firewall
Geospatial
Reference
Information WMS
GIS Apps: NWS
Support, Admin. KML
& Mgmt.
Incorporate Social Sciences
Strategies in Research & Operations
• Probabilistic Forecasts
High
• Communicating Forecast Uncertainty
Public
Social Weather
Science Industry Public Educated on use of
Infusion Decision Makers probabilistic
guidance to ensure
Incorporating best response
Forecasters Uncertainty for
Managing Risk and
Human Factors, Making Decisions
Private Sector
Communicating
Uncertainty
Sophisticated
Low Users
Today Time
17
NWS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP
Roadmap
Schedule, Milestones, and Status
PHASE I
Preparing for Tomorrow… Today
Establish Framework Team 17 Nov 2008
Framework Brief to Corporate Board 10 Dec 2008
PHASE II 21 Dec 2008
Roadmap plenary workshop 3 Feb 2009
Capstone Group completes initial draft 27 Mar 2009
Update for NOAA/NWS leadership Apr 2009
(Progressive updates. Next update by August 2009)
Focus Area Teams complete robust outlines (briefing) 30 Jun 2009
PHASE III
• Stakeholder input compiled Oct 2009
Draft Capstone Document Nov 2009
Full Documentation of Focus Area Plans (10-14pp each) Nov 2009
All S&T Roadmap documents published early 2010
Status 6/15
Completed
In progress
Milestone
18
NWS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP
Preparing for Tomorrow… Today
Questions
19