American Association of Individual Investors _AAII_

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					Birkelbach Management Corp.
                 since 1974

         We seek
 SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE
          to meet
 YOUR FINANCIAL GOALS


          “Listen to the market”
   “Let the market tell you what to do”
             Birkelbach Management Corp.
How to make money in
  the Stock Market?
        Buy and Hold?
   50 Years   :     9%
   1999-2008 :      0

        Birkelbach Management Corp.
DOW 1928-Present




    Birkelbach Management Corp.
  To be Successful in the
stock market is not easy…
           Brokerage Reports
        Company Announcements
                 News
 Today’s stock market prices represent
               investors’
       perception of the future
 And Price is determined by supply and
               demand…
             Birkelbach Management Corp.
Becoming Self Sufficient
Lasting Truths…
   Nobody controls the markets
   We do control our selection and timing
   We can’t tell the market what to do
   We can let the market tell us what to do
   “The trend is your friend”
        Technical Analysis (The forgotten art)
        A Picture is worth a thousand words




                        Birkelbach Management Corp.
The “Lone Bull” – Barron’s 1982




           Birkelbach Management Corp.
               The “Lone Bull”
                 – Fall 2002
                 To read the Investment Strategy Newsletter #519
                           mentioned below please visit
                 http://www.my-broker.com/ISL/isl10_02.htm




Birkelbach Management Corp.
 Head and Shoulder
             Head
                            Right
     Left                Shoulder
 Shoulder
                            Neck Line




                        Volume
                                                           Head             Neck
                                                                            Line
Head and Shoulder Top Formation
                                                                          Right
                                                 Left                  Shoulder
                                             Shoulder
                                                                   Volume

                                             Head and Shoulder Bottom Formation
                             Birkelbach Management Corp.
The Dow…
                             Giant Head and Shoulders
                             Formation
                             (2001 – 2005)
                             10,753 – 7,197 = 3,556;
                             3,556 + 10,753 = 14,309
                             Projected Goal? (14,309 + 32%)

                             Small Head and Shoulders
                             Formation
                             (2002 – 2003)
                             9,000 – 7,197 = 1,803;
                             1,803 + 9,000 = 10,803
                             Projected goal completed 2005


           Birkelbach Management Corp.
The S&P 500…
                           Giant Head and Shoulders
                           Formation
                           (2001 – 2005)
                           1,170 – 820 = 350;
                           350 + 1170 = 1,520
                           Projected Goal? (1,520 + 31%)

                           Small Head and Shoulders
                           Formation
                           (2002 – 2003)
                           1,000 – 820 = 180;
                           180 + 1000 = 1,180
                           Projected goal completed 2005


         Birkelbach Management Corp.
The NASDAQ Composite Index…

                            Giant Head and Shoulders
                            Formation
                            (2001 – 2005)
                            2,000 – 1,195 = 805;
                            805 + 2000 = 2,805
                            Projected Goal? (2,805 + 45%)

                            Small Head and Shoulders
                            Formation
                            (2002 – 2003)
                            1,750 – 1,195 = 555;
                            555 + 1750 = 2,305
                            Projected goal completed 2005


          Birkelbach Management Corp.
Apply technical analysis for
         evaluation



         Birkelbach Management Corp.
The Dow Theory
      Bull Market                                 Bear Market


 Phase III                                                       Phase I




 Phase II                                                       Phase II




 Phase I                                                        Phase III



                    Birkelbach Management Corp.
Characteristics of the Market Cycle

                                               Distribution




  Accumulation




                 Birkelbach Management Corp.
Trend movements




          Birkelbach Management Corp.
Monitor your investments




       Birkelbach Management Corp.
Resistance Area


  B
                                             Resistance Area
  A
           C                                         E




                                         D




           Birkelbach Management Corp.
Support Area


                                         D




               C                                        E
  B

                                         Support Area
  A




           Birkelbach Management Corp.
Trendlines and Trend movements



  Uptrend   BAD
                                                Sideways Trend
  Broken
                                                   Broken


                                   GOOD



                     Downtrend
                      Broken


                  Birkelbach Management Corp.
   Determine your
risk/reward tolerance



     Birkelbach Management Corp.
Towards Corporate Sustainability…
    The Market Place Economy is the
     “dominant economic system” in the world.
    However….Capitalist Model has changed…
                                                                  Corporate Sustainability
                               Shareholder Exploitation by                brought on by...
       1.Exploitation of                   Top Mgmt.                 a. Increased Govt.
            Labor              a. Excessive greed for profits               regulation.
    2.Monopoly for Profits          b. Ignore long term         b. Legal vulnerabilities.
                                          performance           c. Public Outcry on
                                                                     corporate practices.




                             Birkelbach Management Corp.
A Philosophy of Corporate
Sustainability
Reduces Your Risk:
By reducing the vulnerability to government intervention, legal
  entanglements and the wrath of public opinion.
Enhances Shareholder Value:
By Investing in the majority of companies whose product,
  services and methods of operation generate positive
  opportunity for economic growth and enhance the human
  condition.


In addition, we can customize the holdings of your account to
     include or exclude a social criteria important to You.
                      Birkelbach Management Corp.
      Birkelbach Actual Portfolio
                  vs
            S&P 500 Index
Birkelbach Actual Portfolio up   by 35.54% and S&P 500 up by 21.58%




                        Birkelbach Management Corp.
 Establish the right
broker/client or money
 manager relationship



      Birkelbach Management Corp.
Choices
   1.   Discount Broker
   2.   Financial Planner
   3.   Mutual Funds
   4.   Broker
   5.   Investment Manager


              Birkelbach Management Corp.
Mutual Funds vs. Managed Accounts?
           80% of the Mutual Fund managers under perform the market.
           Personalized attention - Talk to readily accessible analysts who
           manage your account
           Tailoring of portfolio to meet your return vs. risk expectations
           Customizing the portfolio to incorporate social criteria important to
           you
           Tax efficiency – pay taxes only on the capital gains you realize
           Competitive management fees1
           No hidden or ‘cash drag’ expenses
           Full transparency and knowledge of your holdings2
           Lower turnover3
1Unlike    mutual funds, managed accounts charge a fixed % of assets managed. This fee is negotiable and is inversely related to assets managed.
2Mutual    Funds typically send out quarterly reports of holdings. In managed accounts clients have daily access to their holdings.
3If   your portfolio strategy is index-oriented, turnover could be low compared to a more actively managed account.



                                                       Birkelbach Management Corp.
Current Market Assessment




        Birkelbach Management Corp.
              CURRENT PROJECTIONS
              HEAD & SHOULDER TOP

           DOW IND           NASDAQ                S&P 500
HIGH        14,198                2,834              1,576

Neckline    12,512                2,386               1,371

            -1,686                -448                -205

DOWNSIDE = 10,828                  1,938              1,166
PROJECTION




                     Birkelbach Management Corp.
DOW 1998 to Present




     Birkelbach Management Corp.
    DOW




Birkelbach Management Corp.
S&P 500 1998-Present




     Birkelbach Management Corp.
S&P 500




Birkelbach Management Corp.
NASDAQ 1998- Present




      Birkelbach Management Corp.
NASDAQ




Birkelbach Management Corp.
STAGFLATION
Euro to US Dollar




   Birkelbach Management Corp.
STAGFLATION
Gold-1975-Present




    Birkelbach Management Corp.
FTSE 100




Birkelbach Management Corp.
Hang Seng ($HSIX)




    Birkelbach Management Corp.
Pick a stock that interests you




          Birkelbach Management Corp.
A stock is only a vehicle
to get you to where you
       want to go


        Birkelbach Management Corp.
    EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS
            ETF’S
   DIG   Ultra Oil and Gas Proshares
   DUG   Ultra Short Oil and Gas Proshares
   ROM   Ultra Technical Proshares
   REW   Ultra Short Technical Proshares
   UYG   Ultra Financials Proshares
   SKF   Ultra Short Financials Proshares
   SSO   Ultra S&P 500 Proshares
   SDS   Ultra Short S&P 500 Proshares
   UKF   Ultra Russell 1000 Growth Proshares
   SKF   Ultra Short Russell 1000 Growth Proshares
   DDM   Ultra Dow 30 Proshares
   DOG   Ultra Short Dow 30 Proshares

                  Birkelbach Management Corp.
Technical Ultra
      ROM




 Birkelbach Management Corp.
Technical Ultra
REW-SHORT




  Birkelbach Management Corp.
SSO Ultra
 S&P 500




Birkelbach Management Corp.
  SKF ULTRA
S&P 500-SHORT




  Birkelbach Management Corp.
Ultra Financials




   Birkelbach Management Corp.
General Electric (GE)




      Birkelbach Management Corp.
General Electric (GE)
      5 Year Chart




     Birkelbach Management Corp.
Apple Inc Com (AAPL)




      Birkelbach Management Corp.
Apple Inc Com (AAPL)
      1 Year Chart




     Birkelbach Management Corp.
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM)




       Birkelbach Management Corp.
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM)
        1 year Chart




       Birkelbach Management Corp.
Abbott Labs Com (ABT)




      Birkelbach Management Corp.
Abbott Labs Com (ABT)
       5 Year Chart




      Birkelbach Management Corp.
Genentech Inc Com (DNA)




       Birkelbach Management Corp.
Genentech Inc Com (DNA)
        5 Year Chart




       Birkelbach Management Corp.
J P Morgan Chase & Co Com (JPM)




           Birkelbach Management Corp.
J P Morgan Chase & Co Com (JPM)
            5 Year Chart




           Birkelbach Management Corp.

				
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