Is America’s Agriculture still vulnerable
to Bioterrorism????
Yes, and it will always be…….
Dr. Jimmy Tickel
NCDA& CS Emergency Programs
Victim’s vulnerability
• Immunity
• Biosecurity-
• Lack of full Integration or understanding of
response
• Production is Grouped geographically
• Market nationally-
Ag’s Immunity Status
YOU visitors wildlife
New
feed Stock yard
stock
Equipment Workers
Virus
Independents
Production continues to regionalize
Protect verses Threat of Spread
As strong as Ag is, it is not built to
withstand intention attack…..
• Economically
– Insurance for catastrophic, long term market
disruption (collateral damage)
– Business continuity is a buzz word in response
planning
• Especially wide scale attack…..it really has
been built on the ability to outlast small,
limited attacks…
– Local droughts, natural disasters, disease etc.
Prepared for point source outbreaks
Complicated with potential secondary breaks
Potential FMD disease spread after a simulated
terrorist attack at 5 Locations
17
2
9
Day 10
19
18
16
20
14
13
12
11
15
8
7
1
3
4
5
623
22
21
30
States Infected: 5
12
40
39
38
37
35
33
30
27
23
19
15
Day 5 Disease First Detected
Even if a national “stop Movement” of all susceptible animals is ordered on Day 8, by the
Potential Impact: time the disease is eradicated the nation could lose still 23.6 million animals!
Collateral Damage from FMD
soybeans
goats
Dairy
Swine
Infected
counties
Quarantined
Poultry
counties
Surveillance
counties
Compartmentalization
The concept of breaking down production systems into their basic
components and then bullet proofing those components. This concept
has incredible potential because production systems have already
used it to manage endemic diseases with success.
Adapting it to provide protection from and containment of an
outbreak of FMD though is still a great challenge.
Feed Milling and
Compartmentalization on a
Distribution
Company level
Retailer, Restaurant,
Institutional
Nucleus Unit Boar Stud
(Genetics) (Genetics)
Multiplier Sow Farms
(Production Sows)
Nursery Unit Finishing Unit
(Commercial Pigs) (Commercial Pigs)
Economic Impact
• “Healthy farms” are hurt by
Days to $0 Annual Returns-to-Management by Stop Movement Rules
Milk Production & Cost Increases
% Cost Increase • Typical NC Dairy (<18K 305
via Program
FCM) can survive
– <13 days, IF no added costs
– If FAD program changes
costs/income by 3%-4%, dairy
has NO resilience
• Annual net goes to zero.
• Higher producing farms last
longer, but show same trend
– Program selects against an
industry segment
Lack of support for Negative producers
• Initially, all producers
• As event progresses
will suffer
little provision to allow
– Stop movements
• necessary
movements to occur in
a timely fashion
– Proof of status
– Standardized biosecurity
– After thought instead of
main goal
• There are 205 sow farms, 90 nurseries, and 120 finishers
– If assume use 50 swabs /farm for status
50 swabs x 205 sow farms = 10,250 swabs/week
90 nurseries moving pigs/week to the finisher x 50 swabs = 4,500
120 finishing barns a week as top hogs go to market x 50 swabs = 6,000
10250 +4500 +6000 = 20,750 swabs/week
Estimate from Murphy Brown-- manage 60% of the hogs in North Carolina.
Old McDonald guards his farm with a
Quick Draw Chihuahua
Compartmentalized Biosecurity
Genetic Entrance vehicle decon
stock
Commercial sows Shower in shower out
Shower in shower out
Nurseries
Perimeter fencing & gates
Finishers
Foot bath
Farm Biosecurity
Off-farm use only
Disinfectant solutions & equipment
Controlled,
Power-wash lockable gate
On-farm use only
Perimeter controls
& Buffer zones for
resident animals
Disinfectant solutions
& equipment J. Tickel DVM
NCDA/VS/EM
• Sale Barns – no biosecurity measures at all
• Feed stores- likewise
• Farms- various measures
– ???Meter readers, postal, salespeople, etc
• Wildlife access—no restrictions
• Hang outs- café’s, truck stops, etc
• Incentivize farmers to
use biosecurity
• Insurance, Bonds,
Hedging, Lending, Legal,
Taxes, etc.
– Incentives acceptance
better than regulation
– Markets determine
values and priorities of
practices
• People want protection but they don’t
intrusion…..they want help but want to dictate
how that help comes…..are not outwardly
looking but certainly, farm-o-centric.
• There are very few incentives to biosecure
farms to the degree necessary to prevent
entry of accidental FMD and no incentives to
prevent bioterrorism.
R:B says
FMD can be
controlled, and the
most farms saved,
by Stamping No
Out only?
Single- or Multi-
Site FMD Multi 2 R:B says
Incursion? FMD can be
controlled, and the
Yes most farms saved,
1 via Stamping Out &
No
Emerg Vacc?
Single Do resources
No 4
exist to more than likely
accomplish the
Yes R:B says FMD
can be eradicated
Yes
Stamping Out &
via Stamping
save farms?
Out Only? No
3 Do resources
exist to more than
likely accomplish No 6
Yes Stamping Out &
Emergency
Vaccination? Yes
5
Yes Yes Do resources
No
exist to more than likely
accomplish
Stamping Out?
Other/future strategy
choices insert here
[A] [B] [C]
[D]
Stamp Out & 7
Stamp Out Stamp Out Emerg Vacc Endemic FMD
Only Protocols Only Protocols Protocols
R:B = Risk:Benefit
Model / Analysis
• Our greatest threat of
massive FMD outbreak is
a bioterrorist event…..to
mitigate that potential
we……
• Have hardened value rich targets by instituting
standardized biosecurity
• Increased bio surveillance standards
• Bullet proof animals through vaccine etc
• Business continuity measures are in place
Emergency Management
infrastructure Human Health Infrastructure
• FEMA • USPHS
Feds • FEMA Regions Feds • CDC
• NEMA • State PH /Regional PHRSTs
State • State EMA/ Area Coordinators State • State labs
• County EMA • County/Municipal PH
Local • First Responders Local • Hospitals etc
• Public • Public
No “dedicated position” to
address Large Scale
Animal/Ag Response
issues on County/ local level.
• EM/ AC /Extension
– Assessment/Planning
• CART’s/ Volunteers
– Response Partnering
– Disease response
– Resource development
– Training
– Volunteer recruitment
Creating Local Response
infrastructure
• All hazards Local Ag
Disaster and Disease
Response planner
Rural & Community Response & Recovery
– Specialists positioned in
key states, key Ag areas
– Use resources like EDEN
to develop best practices
– Compartmentalization,
NAIS, Local support of
Disease events, Local
Recovery Natural
Disasters