Campaigns &
Elections
POSC 121
Braunwarth
Saffell “How Voters Decide”
What are the primary factors considered by
voters in their voting decision?
1. Party Affiliation
2. Characteristics of the Candidate
3. Issues
Is this surprising to you? Why or why not?
Two Elections
Campaigns/Elections occur in two stages:
Primaries to win the party nomination
Party members/Voters select the candidate, not the
party Leaders/Organization
Presidential primaries are staggered, giving more
importance to early primary states
Culminate in the Convention
Essentially scripted TV commercials
Used to be where candidates were chosen
General election for the office
Candidates must appeal to the party faithful to win
the nomination then move to the center to win the
election
The Electoral College
Plurality elections in each of the 50 states
Even third parties with widespread support
are unlikely to get electoral votes
Win electors; How many in each state?
# of Representatives and # of Senators
Makes winning the big states key (CA has
55)
Campaigns center in “swing” states where
the race is up for grabs
Map/Maps Cartograms of 2008 election
Campaign Necessities
Must have the “fire in the belly” to put up
with the long duration and intense scrutiny
of the campaign
This deters otherwise qualified candidates
Money is a necessary but not sufficient
ingredient for electoral success; Must
either have it or be able to raise it
What’s the Matter with Money
Excludes those who can’t raise it; like who?
Third Parties, Working Class advocates, etc.
Inequalities in the ability to donate translate into
political inequality
Politicians have to spend up to half of their time
raising it
Can it buy access?
Are officials more likely to meet with someone who
can contribute or with you?
Can it buy support?
Votes are NOT for sale but well funded and
organized groups can win changes in tax code or
regulatory policy that we all must pay for
Can Money Buy Access?
Certainly
Can Money Buy Support?
There is a strong correlation between
contributions and how a candidate votes
But correlation does not prove causation
People donate money to politicians who will
support the donor’s cause
Rather than the money driving the vote of the
politician, its the vote driving the money
Politicians may favor interests who can
donate $
Insidiousness of Money
Very difficult to limit the flow of money into politics
When prohibited direct donations from corporations and
unions,
They created Public Action Committees (PACs).
When limited donations to candidates (hard $),
Contributors gave to parties (soft $).
When limited soft money,
Contributors fund “527” “issue advocacy” ads.
To limit overall spending in Presidential campaigns,
Have had to coerce through the provision of public
matching funds.
With the “Citizens United” ruling, basically all restrictions
have been lifted
Campaign Finance Reform
One problem is we are asking Congress to
reform a system by which Representatives
currently benefit
Another problem is the constitutional issue of
spending money to get out a message as a
form of free speech
What reforms would you suggest?
Abolish Soft Money? Spending Ceilings?
Expand Public Financing? Free Media?
Things
12. What can the government do to support
certain industries and “pick winners”?
13. Will giving a bigger slice of the pie to the
wealthy increase investment and growth?
14. Why isn’t there more outcry over CEO
compensation?
16. If people are rational and make rational
decisions, is market regulation necessary?
18. Why else might market regulation be
necessary?
Things
12. With massive support for R&D since WWII,
the U.S. “picks” most industrial winners.
13. Giving a bigger slice of the pie to the rich
has actually reduced the pace of growth
14. The managerial class has the power to
manipulate the forces that determine its pay
16. Regulations can simplify a complex market
so the regulated can make better decisions
18. Regulations are needed to protect common
resources and raise collective productivity
CA Progressive Movement
Led by Hiram Johnson (Gov. in
1910, Senator 1916)
Increased democratization:
Initiative (people make laws
directly)
Referendum (veto acts of the
legislature)
Recall (remove elected officials
from office)
CA Initiatives
Constitutional or Statutory
Constitutional: changes the Constitution
need signatures of 8% of percent of turnout
for last Gov. race (693,000)
Statutory: need only 5% (433,000)
Which is more common? Why?
Constitutional can’t be invalidated because
conflicts with CA constitution
CA Legislative Initiatives
Legislature must get public approval through
initiative if:
Put state in debt (bond issues)
Change the Constitution
Alter or Amend laws originally passed as
ballot measures
Legislators occasionally don’t want to touch
controversial issues and pass the buck to the
voters
CA Referendums
Effort to invalidate laws already passed by the
legislature
Must get 5% signatures within 90 days to delay
implementation of the law
Rarely used. Why?
Time Constraints
Just use an initiative
Use of Initiative is Increasing
Increasingly is seen as an alternative to the
traditional legislative process
a. Economic Interests who have some-thing to
gain or defend (businesses, trade
associations, unions, etc.)
b. “Grass roots” Interests: cigarette smoking,
services to illegal immigrants, nuclear safety,
CA coastline, etc.
Who Benefits?
Initiative process was intended to empower
the people and free CA politics from the
railroad “barons”
Does it still work this way?
Was intended for the people but now tends to
benefit those already well-off and established
The initiative process has become very
expensive (professional campaign firms, paid
petition circulators, ads, etc.)
If one doesn’t have resources, it’s hard to use
Ironically, the initiative process has become
dominated by big money special interests.
Benefits the Haves > Have-Nots
CA Recall
Elections to remove an elected official from office
Used to remove Gov. Davis in 2004
Voters were primarily upset with the poor state of the
economy and the budget
What were the primary causes of these problems?
General Economic Downturn, Dot-Com bust, Terrorist
Attacks, Electricity Crisis
Is Davis responsible or to blame for any of these?
Is this Direct Democracy run amok?
Why about Representative
Democracy?
Legislators, in theory, represent needs of all
individuals in their district
Propositions often present an extreme view
which must be decided yes or no
Consequently often poorly drawn
Bypasses legislative process of debate,
amendment, and compromise
Symptomatic of cynical mistrust of elected
officials
Who Loses?
Tyranny of the Majority often violates the
norm of Political Equality
At expense of Minorities and Outgroups
Only 1/3 of inititiatives pass with public
approval
But 3/4 that restrict the civil rights of
minorities and homosexuals have passed
Public Approval does not mean ethically
right or constitutionally valid
Examples
Prohibiting same-sex marriage propositions:
2008 Prop 8, 2000 Prop 22
1996 Proposition 209 “The California Civil
Rights Initiative” equating Discrimination with
Preference
English Only propositions: 986 Proposition 63
(English only)
1998 Proposition 227 (no bilingual education)
How comfortable are we with
Hyperpluralism?
Questions
Does the Initiative process facilitate or
hinder democracy?
How will Teledemocracy change direct
participation in the future?
How will this affect the quality and stability
of decision making?
What dangers do you foresee?
How will turnout be affected?
What groups will use to their own ends?