Study Guide by 5wuVvO


									Study Guide
                                                            Chapter 3
TM 745 First Exam Spring 2008
                                                            Know the assumptions and definitions of the
The exam is open book, open notes. Calculators are          moving average and exponential smoothing.
allowed. Students may have up to three hours for            Particularly know that they do not include
the exam. The exam covers chapters 1-4.                     trend, seasonal, or cyclical components. And,
                                                            know the formulas for computation.
There are a few calculations, but most questions are
multiple choice.                                            Be familiar with methods of choosing
                                                            smoothing constants.
Chapter 1
                                                             Be familiar with the assumptions for Holtz
Be familiar with the characteristics of subjective forecasts.method, Winter’s Method, and Adaptive
Be able to contrast Sales Force Composites, Customer Response Single Exponential smoothing.
Surveys, Jury of Executive Opinion, and the Delphi
Method                                                       Know that first deseasonalizing the original
                                                             data, then reseasonalizing the forecasts can
Know the similarity of RMSE and the standard                 allow moving averages and exponential
deviation. Know how RMSE is influenced by large              soothing to be used more generally.
and small errors in the model fit.
                                                             Know the usage of the term diffusion model in
Chapter 2
                                                             Know that common usages of event models
Know how to apply Table 2.1 in selecting and                 and indices include various advertising
comparing forecasting methods, and what                      methods.
characteristics it includes.
                                                             Know how to interpret event and seasonal
Be familiar with the GAP data in the integrative             indices, and the meaning of the indices being
example and its complexity including trend and               positive or negative.
                                                             Chapter 4
Be able to answer questions involving definitions of time
series components:                                           Know the technical meaning of the least
Trend, Seasonal, Cyclical and Irregular.                     squares and the definition of the term
Know how to apply the book’s definition of a
stationary series.                                           Know the relationship between sign of the
                                                             correlation coefficient and the sign of the slop
Know the meaning of a zero and negative                      of the regression line.
correlation coefficient. Recall that a parabola can be
fit with a zero correlation.                                 Recall that the Ascombe examples gave the
                                                             same fitted line and correlation coefficient
Be familiar with the definition of autocorrelation.          from many different data sets.
Know how to apply seasonsal indices, including
when to multiple and divide in deseasonalizing the
original data, then reseasonalizing the forecasts.

Know the usage of R-squared and interpreting its
bounds 0 and 1, and as a portion of variability.

Generally, know how to interpret a Durbin-Watson
(DW) statistic.

Separated Calculation problems

Know how to compute a Z-table and a t-table
confidence interval.

Know how to compute moving averages and
exponential smoothing models.

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