Three Actions for LCSs
Tokyo Institute of Technology
Hiroto Takayama Kazufumi Takashina Kou Morimoto Tasuku Hasegawa Chie Tanabe
Oct. 31, 2008
Narrative Scenario
Annual Growth rate : → Approximately 2% of GDP per capita growth rate Technology development rate : → High Market : Reducing regulation Primary: Decrease in Share Increase in import dependency Secondary: Tendency to heighten the added value Globalization of production basis Service: Increase in share Increase in productivity Population Projection
140 120 100
million
80 60 40 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
65 over 15～64 0～14
Policy
Residential sector (HEMS and BEMS)
HEMS and BEMS are the technology of improving energy efficiency in residential sector.
Freight transport sector (modal shift)
Modal shift is a change in the proportion of trips by different types of freight transport .
Energy sector (natural energy)
We assume that we introduce the technology of natural energy.
Residential Sector
HEMS & BEMS
Use IT technology to promote and facilitate a system that supports the energy demand management at home (HEMS) for business (BEMS)
Source: Energate Inc
Options
HEMS & BEMS
High cost
Lack of knowledge of HEMS &BEMS Lack of appeal
Cost down Conveniences
Need to invest Need to invest Connection between the makers
Advertisements
Lack of information about house and building energy saving
Development of cost performance
Development of usability
Electrical appliances
Education of environment
Change legal or Impose tax
When should we start the options
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Advertisement Development (cost performance and usability) Electrical appliances
Cost down
Education Conveniences Change legal or Impose tax
Result
CO2 Reduction 315 314.5 314 313.5 313 312.5 312 311.5 311 310.5 310
BEMS BEMS BEMS HEMS HEMS HEMS HEMS BAU
light warm cool appliances light warm cool
Mt-c
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Transportation Sector (Freight)
Japanese Railway System
Passenger railway company Freight Railway company
“Japanese Freight Railway Company” hire railway track from “Passenger Railway Company”.
barriers
• Freight railway company can`t make flexibility
Now, they lag increasing demand
• When disaster happen ,recovery of freight rail diagram is very slow • Limit of burden is strict
EG Japan; Maximum loading weight is 1300t Korea; Maximum loading weight is more than 2000t
• Equipment of freight train get older • Government place more emphasis on road and less on rail.
Options
Increasing rail transport
Differentiated service to other means Improve speed of transport Improve through transportation
Energy saving train
remain competitive
Improvement port
Vertical separation
Built bullet train for cargo transport Improve alternate route
４０ｆｔcontainer
Rise weight limits
New raw to remain competitive
securing of financing
Improve existing infrastructure
New raw to sub serve cost Introduce the carbon tax
What is vertical Separation?
Department of train monitoring (new construction)
Monitoring safety
Monitoring competition
Railway companies (operate trains)
Use fees of rail truck
Lending rail truck
Rail truck companies (operate rail truck) EG. Réseau Ferré de France Network Rail (UK)
What is Tokaido Freight Shinkansen
Now, line capacity between Tokyo and Osaka is full We can not increase Freight train. There is a plan to built freight line median strip on the new high way
When should we start the options
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Energy saving train Built bullet train for cargo transport New raw to remain competitive Improve alternate route New raw to sub serve cost Introduce the carbon tax
Improve existing infrastructure Vertical separation 40ft container Improvement port
Result～Transportation mode～
process of transportation mode
350 300
250
200
B t-km
Small freight vehicle Large freigt vehicle
150
Freight train Freight ship
100
Freght air
50
0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Change of CO2 emission
building bullet train reduction of car transportation by bullet train renewal of freight train equipment making effcient locomobile 2
Change of CO2 emission (MtC)
1.5
1
0.5 MtC
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
Energy Supply Sector
Power production for local consumption by local renewable resource
Fuel shift to renewable energy
Energy loss in electricity transmission Water, land right constraints Low penetration rate of renewable power equipment
Reducing transmission loss
Law reforming
improvement of electricity transmission infrastructure
High-cost relative to existing electricity
Expanding renewable energy purchasing system
Low purchasing price for renewable energy Lack of information about renewable energy based power system
Enhancing R&D
Subsidies for installation of renewable power system
Announcement for stakeholder
When should we start the options
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Announcement for stakeholder Law reforming Expanding renewable energy purchasing system Fuel shift to renewable energy improvement of electricity transmission infrastructure Reducing transmission loss Enhancing R&D
Result
320
315
CO2 emission [Mt-C]
310
Efficient renewable power plant Fuel shift to renewable energy BAU
305
300
295
290
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
All Actions
Residential and Commercial sector
HEMS, BEMS → diffuse
CO2 emission [MtC]
320 300 280 260 240 220 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
BAU HEMS warm HEMS appliances BEMS warm bullet train for cargo transport Rail infrastructure development decrease shipping Efficient renewable power plant HEMS cool HEMS light BEMS cool BEMS light car reduction Efficient locomotive building Fuel shift to renewable energy
Freight transportation sector
The Tokaido Shinkansen for commodity distribution begin service (2020～) Spread railway networks Improve the efficiency of trains
Energy supply sector
Energy shift (2015～) → renewable energy
Discussion
Uncertainties
Is there other options or barriers?
Mindset, incentives
Our inputs for BCM is correct?
To stimulate stakeholders’ participation in actions, more effective options are needed.
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