Documents
Resources
Learning Center
Upload
Plans & pricing Sign in
Sign Out

The transition towards a hydrogen based energy system – the need for transition management

VIEWS: 5 PAGES: 49

  • pg 1
									The transition towards a hydrogen based energy system – the need for transition management
ESRC Seminar Series Analysing Social Dimension of Emerging Hydrogen Economies
Harm Jeeninga ECN Policy Studies jeeninga@ecn.nl

Manchester, 24 – 25 February 2005

Contents
• • • • • • • About ECN What‟s a transition? The need for transition management Drivers for the (hydrogen) transition Sustainability of the transition Selecting transition pathways More discussion (?)

ECN

www.ecn.nl

What is a Transition?

What‟s a transition
• A transition is a process of system innovation or societal change • After the transition is complete, society, or a large part of it has changed structurally • Transitions are not blueprints, but possible development pathways • The direction, shape and tempo of a pathway can be influenced by policy and specific conditions • A transition involves changes in actors and dimensions

The multi level perspective
Macro level (landscape)

Meso level (regimes)

Micro level (niches)

The multi-dimensional perspective
Social-cultural dimension: Symbolic meaning of particular technology Ecological dimension

Geographical dimension

Infrastructural dimension

Sociotechnical regime

Political-institutional dimension (laws, regulations, subsidies)

Economic dimension (market conditions) Technological dimension

Example of a regime
Regulations (car taxes, insurance policies, parking fees) Industry structure (car manufacturers, suppliers)

REGIME OF PERSONAL TRANSPORTATION
Symbolic and cultural meaning (freedom, individuality)

Repair shops, car sales & show rooms (maintenance and distribution networks)

Road infrastructure and traffic systems

Vehicle/artefact

Logistic supply system (e.g. petrol stations)

Driver preferences & competence

Drive train

Suspension

Body

Accesories

Control systems

Engine

Transmission

Wheels

Material

Structural configuration

Brake system

Steering system

The actor oriented perspective
Financial network
* venture capital suppliers * insurance firms

Suppliers
* material suppliers * component suppliers * machine suppliers

User groups Producer network

Research network
* universities * technical institutes

Societal groups Public authorities
* European Commission * National Ministries

Transition at work: mechanisms towards societal change
Macro: Landscape developments

Regime A (t0)
Socio-cultural dimension Geographical dimension Political/Institutional dimension Technological dimension Ecological dimension

Meso: Sociotechnical regimes

Infrastructure Economic dimension

Micro: Technological niches

Time

Transition at work: mechanisms towards societal change
Macro: Landscape developments

Demand pull
Climate change, security of supply

Regime A (t0)
Socio-cultural dimension Geographical dimension Political/Institutional dimension Technological dimension Ecological dimension

Regime B (t1)

Meso: Sociotechnical regimes

Infrastructure Economic dimension

Technology push
Micro: Technological niches

Technology innovation

Time

The need for Transition management

The need for transition management
Observation:
• Forecasts of energy demand (scenario‟s) show (in general) no hydrogen (exception: back casting / optimisation studies (IEA))
Simulation (forecasting) based on short (to medium) term optimisation Back casting based on long term optimisation

Explanation:
• •

Market Mechanisms
Emission reduction goal; CO2, NOx, SO2, PM10….

Time

Market Mechanisms
Emission reduction goal; CO2, NOx, SO2, PM10….

Investments short term optimisation (€/year)

Time

Market Mechanisms

Emission reduction goal; CO2, NOx, SO2, PM10….

Time

Market Mechanisms
Investments short term optimisation (€/year)

Investments transition pathway (€/year) Emission reduction goal; CO2, NOx, SO2, PM10….

Time

Market Mechanisms
Investments short term optimisation (€/year)

Investments transition pathway (€/year) Emission reduction goal; CO2, NOx, SO2, PM10….

Short term losses

Time

Market Mechanisms
Investments short term optimisation (€/year)

Future benefits Investments transition pathway (€/year) Emission reduction goal; CO2, NOx, SO2, PM10….

Short term losses

Time

Market Mechanisms

Emission reduction goal; CO2, NOx, SO2, PM10….

Time

Market Mechanisms

Emission reduction goal; CO2, NOx, SO2, PM10….

Time

Market Mechanisms

Emission reduction goal; CO2, NOx, SO2, PM10…. Investments short term optimisation (€/year)

Time

Drivers for the transition
Long term profits depend on:
• • Energy prices (are determined by number of factors), security of supply, depletion of fossil fuels,…………… “Costs”of meeting policy targets (Kyoto and post-Kyoto)
– “Costs” of hydrogen transition pathway vs. competing pathways (lock in effects)

CO2 emission targets (post Kyoto period):
• •

US (China, Australia….) enters the „programme‟ US (et al.) do not enter: level playing field

 No very ambitious CO2 reduction targets for 2020?

Drivers
But:
• • • Greenhouse gas emissions are just one of the drivers Developments in EU strongly interact with developments in rest of the world US, China: security of supply and air quality are major drivers EU forecast: import of fossil fuels  70% in 2030!

•

Transition management
Conclusions:
• Long(er) term benefits should be taken into account in current decision making process
– Share holder value, yearly targets, job rotation, end of pipe solutions

•

The transition towards a sustainable energy system (i.e. a hydrogen based society) requires management

How to bridge the gap?
How to incorporate future benefits?
• Market characteristics: competitive and liberalised market
– Horizontal and vertical integration of companies (minimising investment risks, overcome “chicken and egg” problem)

• • • •

Monetarise future profits (just by selecting a discount rate?) External costs (and leave it up to the market)? Set clear unambiguous future goals and stick to it Education and training……….

How to bridge the gap?
Fuelling stations in operation
Customer view: „Hydrogen served at each corner“

Vehicle population Fuel provider view: „>500 vehicles served per fuelling station“ Initialisation Demonstration Transition Full implementation

2010 Source: HyNet

2015

2020

How to bridge the gap
Investments short term optimisation (€/year)

Hybrid technology to bridge the gap?? Gap

Hybrid option (€/year) Investments transition pathway (€/year) Emission reduction goal; CO2, NOx, SO2, PM10….

Time

Transition management
• A transition is not only a technological transition, but also the actor network is likely to undergo severe changes
– Resistance from current dominant market actors – Exploring niche markets involves high risks – Current dominant market actors recruit “conservative staff” rather than “Gyro Gearloose”

Transition management
• A transition towards a sustainable energy system is not just a matter of technology improvement
– High technological progress for ICE‟s – Fuel consumption has not improved! – 100 kW is “the standard”, top speed of 200 km/h is not uncommon

 Change in consumer preferences might be unavoidable • • Create a sense of urgency Education

Transition management
• A transition requires a series of succeeding demonstrations with increasing size
– Most hydrogen projects are told to be “a success” – Little of these projects get the required follow up

The transition process
Market share Companies want to have the assurance that this phase will be reached

Cost effective, (possibly through policy)

Subsidies, etc. Transition experiment R&D

Time

Transition management
• Therefore: it should be recognised on forehand that the subsidy granted in the first phase is just „the top of the iceberg‟ The EC seems to have understood this process right now
(development of a limited number of Hydrogen Communities)

• •

•

In the Netherlands, at the moment all transition pathways get „a little‟ support for a first demo Clear realistic (no in between negotiations) goals are needed

Drivers for the hydrogen transition

Drivers – Air quality

NO2 concentrations in Europe

Drivers – Security of supply
Security of supply depends on:
• • • • Reserves and resources Production capacity (e.g. barrels / day) Region – geopolitical stability It‟s not just a “normal” price – demand response!

As a result of the oil crises, fuel substitution has occurred in most sectors. Transport sector still relies on oil!

Import dependency Western Europe
Oil
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2000 0% 2000 2010 2020 Imports (Russia and FSU) 2030 100% 80% 60% 40% 20%

Natural gas

2010

2020

2030

Oil production

Oil imports

Imports (Africa, Latin America, Middle East) Natural gas production (Western Europe)

Source: ECN,2004

Where can we find the oil?
Billion Barrels

Sufficient for another 40 years

(source BP statistical review 2002)

BP statistical review of world energy 2002 en WBS, 2004

New oil fields and oil production

Source: Association for Peak Oil

Natural gas
[EJ] 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Unconventional Reserves Conventional Resources Conventional Reserves

Question: will Russia export their natural gas to Europe or China?

No rth Am S er & ica C Am er ica Eu ro pe Eu ra M sia id dl e Ea st

As ia

Af r ic a Pa cif ic

Source: BGR, 2002

Nuclear energy
• Nuclear energy ca. 16% of world wide electricity production • Main production centres: Australia and Canada • RAR and EAR: ~ 67 year (source: WEC) • Total U: ~ 210 year (+ Th: 280 year) • Resources unconventional (U in oceans) very large
RAR = Reasonably Assured Reserves EAR = Estimated Additional Reserves WEC = World Energy Council, 2004

Global uranium reserves
[1000 tU] 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
Am er & ic C a Eu Am er ro ic pe a /E ur as M ia id dl e E as t Af ri c a As ia O ce an ia

If we double the share of nuclear power, RAR and EAR will be used in ~ 30 years
Reasonably Assured Reserves Estimated Additional Reserves Other Amounts Recoverable

N

or th

S

Sustainability of the transition

Sustainable energy systems
• How to define future sustainability?
 Economy (GDP, economic stability, security of supply……)  Environment (greenhouse gasses, other pollutants…..)  Society (health, affordability…..)

Balance between goals: sometimes synergy, usually trade-offs
Security of supply

Economy

Environment

Sustainable energy systems
• How to define future sustainability?
 Economy (GDP, economic stability, security of supply……)  Environment (greenhouse gasses, other pollutants…..)  Society (health, affordability…..)

 But………….10 years later the energy system might not be sustainable any more
– – Lock in effects - it takes about 40 years to change the infrastructure Oil, gas, nuclear but also biofuels / biomass?

Choosing the right transition pathway

How to manage the market?
• What options to support?
– The market has a short term vision and therefore it‟s needs guidance (transition management) – Setting clear future goals is the first step – There is no such thing is the one and only sustainable transition pathway – Substantial support (subsidies) might be needed in order to beat the current regime at sufficient pace

•

Do we have to keep all options open (competition and selection)?
• • • Choices made by the market might be sub-optimal (sustainability of sustainable end visions, lock in) If the market can‟t choose, the transition manager has to? Can science provide the answer?

Discussion


								
To top