Iraq: U.S. interests best served by a
quick exit
Charles V. Peña
Director of Defense Policy Studies
Cato Institute, Washington, DC
May 2, 2003
According to President Bush
The United States has no intention of determining
the precise form of Iraq's new government. That
choice belongs to the Iraqi people.
Rebuilding Iraq will require a sustained commitment.
We will remain in Iraq as long as necessary, and not
a day more.
Speech at the American Enterprise Institute
February 26, 2003
According to Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld
How would we feel about an Iranian-type
government with a few clerics running everything in
the country, the answer is: That isn't going to
happen.
AP wire story, April 25, 2003
Iraq belongs to you [the Iraqi people]. The coalition
has no intention of owning or running Iraq.
AP wire story, April 30, 2003
According to Jay Garner
We won’t quit until we know they’re on the right
road.
To get them comfortable with self-government I
don’t think will take long.
All we care about is them establishing a democratic
process that creates a government that expresses the
freely elected will of the people.
What kind of government, what kind of process –
that’s up to them.
Washington Post, April 20, 2003
According to Iraqi protestors
No to America. No to Saddam. Our revolution is
Islamic.
No Sunni. No Shiite. Only One Islamic Nation.
No Bush. No Saddam. Yes, yes to Islam.
No to imperialism. No to Israel. No to America. No
to Saddam.
Leave our country. We want peace. America is
God’s enemy.
We thank the Americans for getting rid of Saddam’s
regime, but now Iraq must be run by Iraqis.
Iraqi protestors (cont.)
We will not accept a government that oppresses us.
There must be an elected government.
We cannot be part of a process which is under an
American general.
The American presence is unacceptable and there’s
no justification for it staying in Iraq.
You are masters today. But I warn you against
thinking of staying. Get out before we force you out.
U.S. rhetoric is a jumble of
contradictions
One thing is certain: we will not impose a
government in Iraq.
President Bush
Remarks at Lima Army Tank Plant, Lima. OH
April 24, 2003
The coalition alone retains absolute authority within
Iraq.
Lt. Gen David McKiernan
“U.S. Warns Iraqis Against Claiming Authority in Void,” New York Times,
April 24, 2003
Two options
First option is president’s vision of sustained
commitment
Constitutional democracy
Civil society
Free market economy
Cost could be substantial
Estimates range from $75 billion to $500 billion
Likely to borne by U.S. taxpayers
Implies a prolonged U.S. military commitment likely
to be viewed as an occupation
Options (cont.)
Second option is to hand the government back to the
Iraqi people as quickly as possible, followed
immediately by U.S. military withdrawal
Administration rhetoric suggests this is the general approach
being taken
But the result could be an Islamic state or Iran trying
to exert influence
Administration has declared this as unacceptable
U.S. seems to want to do both options,
despite inherent contradictions
A third option
Transition government back to the Iraqi people as
soon as possible
Followed by U.S. military withdrawal
Leave democratization, policing and internal security,
and nation building to a coalition of the willing
Other countries (or possibly the UN) assume the costs and
risks
Reduces likelihood that U.S. becomes a convenient target
Might be the least bad of not very good options
U.S. interests best served by a quick exit
IF Iraq was a threat, that threat has now been
eliminated
Having invaded Iraq, the U.S. may have little choice
but to help rebuild it
But that does not mean an Iraqi New Deal
U.S. needs to set modest goals and a firm departure
date
NOT a “made in America” democracy
Remember the legacy of the U.S. military presence in Saudi
Arabia
Quick exit (cont.)
Primary objective should be to hand the government
back to the Iraqis in the shortest possible time
Withdraw U.S. troops at earliest possible opportunity
Let Iraqis determine their own government
NOT a U.S. hand-picked or approved government
Avoid favoritism to Iraqi exiles
United States must be willing to live with a less
than perfect outcome.
But in deposing Saddam, be careful what you
wish for.
Events that do not portend well
“U.S.: At Least 7 Iraqis Killed in Mosul Protest,”
Reuters, April 16, 2003
U.S. troops killed at least seven Iraqis in Mosul when a
demonstration against their presence in the northern city
turned violent on Tuesday.
A prominent Kurdish-backed leader in the city accused U.S.
forces of stoking tensions by raising the Stars and Stripes
over the [government] building [occupied by U.S. forces].
Events (cont.)
“U.S. Forces Return Fire at Iraq Protest,” AP, April 29,
2003
U.S. soldiers opened fire on Iraqis at a demonstration after
being shot at with automatic rifles by some in the crowd.
The director of the local hospital said 13 people were killed
and 75 injured.
The demonstrators reportedly were protesting U.S. troops'
presence in Fallujah. But some townspeople said the protest
was held by students aged 5 to 20 to ask the soldiers to
leave the school they were staying at so classes, scheduled
to resume Tuesday, could take place.
Events (cont.)
“U.S. Troops Fire on Iraq Protestors Again,” AP, April
30, 2003
For the second time this week, U.S. soldiers fired on anti-
American protesters Wednesday in the city of Fallujah.
The mayor said two people were killed and 14 wounded.
The shooting in Fallujah, 30 miles west of Baghdad,
occurred less than 48 hours after gunfire during a
demonstration Monday night that hospital officials said killed
13 Iraqis.
Downside risks to lingering in Iraq
U.S. nation building track record is spotty, at best
Post-war Germany and Japan not comparable to Iraq
Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, Kosovo more likely examples
Nation building in Afghanistan still uncertain outcome
Lebanon in the 1980s
If the U.S. takes sides in an internal power struggle, the
likely result is that U.S. forces will become a target for
guerilla war and terrorism
Risks (cont.)
Soviet Union in Afghanistan
If U.S. is viewed as an occupying power, Arabs and Muslims
throughout the region might flock to Iraq to expel the
American infidel