Space Debris Low Now
David 5/13 [ Leonard, Head Writer, How to Clean Up Space Junk: Darpa’s Orbital Catcher’s Mitt,
May 11th, http://www.space.com/11657-space-junk-orbital-debris-cleanup-darpa.html, HL]
Although space debris is a growing concern and will have to be addressed at some point in the future, even in the most congested low-
the current risk from orbital debris is significant … but manageable, said Wade
Earth orbit altitude regimes,
Pulliam, manager of Advanced Concepts of Logos Technologies in Arlington, Va., and the former program
manager of DARPA’s Catcher's Mitt report. "By significant I mean that it can be one of the top single
contributors to the lifecycle risk of a satellite, but manageable in that the risk is still sufficiently low
that it doesn't require a change in operations," Pulliam told SPACE.com. Pulliam noted that a recent study by The
Aerospace Corporation projected the effects of the future debris environment over the next 30 years. It showed that for typical low-Earth
orbit satellite constellations, therisk of space debris will add only 4 to 15 percent to the cost of the constellation, depending on the type of
course, debris risk is statistical, so there may not be any problem at all or a collision
constellation. "Of
will take out a satellite requiring a spare to be built and launched," Pulliam said. Still, a new
significant debris event could statistically happen tomorrow which would greatly accelerate the
growing risk and require a more immediate response, he cautioned.
NASA will Clear Space Debris with Laser Method
Kenyon 11 (Henry, Government Computer News, “NASA Plans Laser Method For Clearing
Space Junk,” March 14th, Defense Systems,
www.defensesystems.com/articles/2011/03/14/nasa-laser-zap-space-junk.aspx, HL)
Space junk is cluttering the high frontier. The growing cloud of debris in Earth orbit has been
worrying space-faring nations for some time, but nothing in particular has been done to clean it
up. A team of scientists from NASA and Cornell University has proposed a laser-based
method to remove objects from orbit. Instead of blasting pieces of debris (which would
only create more flying junk), the group’s plan calls for using a medium-powered
ground-based laser combined with a terrestrial telescope to illuminate the objects, which will
slow them down and cause them to reenter the atmosphere and burn up. The Technology
Review blog noted that this process isn’t as outlandish as it seems. In fact, in the 1990’s, the Air
Force studied the idea, but never acted on it. The Air Force had intended to use a powerful laser,
but such a system could also be used as a weapon, which would have raised concerns from other
spacefaring nations, the blog said. The NASA/Cornell system would rely on the photons of
the laser itself to decelerate an object. By illuminating a targeted piece of debris for a
couple of hours per day, the researchers estimated that a 5-kilowatt laser would be
sufficient for the job and that such a device could zap up to 10 objects a day.
Debris is Dangerous
Zenko 11 (Micah, Council on Foreign Relations, “The Danger of Space Debris,” July 5th,
http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/07/05/the-danger-of-space-debris/, HL)
Last week, six astronauts living on board the International Space Station (ISS), which
orbits some 200 miles above the earth’s surface, received notice that a piece of space debris
travelling 29,000 miles per hour would pass dangerously nearby. NASA
Debris is Dangerous
Space Debris Low
NASA will Clear Space Debris with Laser Method
officials calculated that the probability of the ISS being hit at around one in 360. (One in
10,000 is NASA’s nominal threshold for which it will authorize a “collision avoidance maneuver.”) Normally, the ISS receives ample
notice so that it can maneuver out of the pathway of potential space debris. However, with less than fifteen hours’ warning, the
astronauts were forced to relocate to Soyuz space capsules for only the second time in the ISS’s thirteen-year history. While the
orbital space debris is a growing threat to civil, military,
debris missed the space station by 1,100 feet,
and commercial satellites in space. Presently, there are some 22,000 items over ten
centimeters across, or roughly the size of a softball, which can be regularly tracked with
existing resources and technology. These include the upper stages of launch vehicles,
disabled spacecraft, dead batteries, solid rocket motor waste, and refuse from human
missions. In addition, there are approximately 300,000 other fragments of space junk
measuring between one and ten centimeters, and over 135,000,000 less than one
centimeter, which could potentially damage operational spacecraft. Though it took forty years to
produce the first 10,000 pieces of softball-sized space debris, it required less than a decade for the next 12,000. This recent increase
was due in part to two worrying incidents, which, according to NASA, combined to increase the number of total space objects by over
60 percent. In January 2007, the Chinese military destroyed a defunct polar-orbiting weather satellite with a mobile ballistic
missile, and in February 2009 an active Iridium communication satellite and a defunct Russian satellite, which had
been predicted to pass each other 1,900 feet apart, unexpectedly collided. The ability to detect, track, characterize, and predict
objects in space and space-related events is known as space situational awareness (SSA). The U.S. Strategic Command’s Joint Space
Operations Center (JSpOC) provides this function for the Pentagon by monitoring space debris (over ten centimeters) with a
worldwide network of twenty-nine ground-based radars and optical sensors. In addition to supporting U.S. military and intelligence
agencies, JSpOC provides e-mail notifications to commercial space operators when their satellites are at risk from space debris.
JSpOC provides twenty to thirty close-approach notifications per day, which last year resulted in satellite owners maneuvering 126
times to avoid collision with other satellites or debris. According to U.S. officials, the United States even notifies the Chinese
government when their satellites are threatened by space debris created by the 2007 anti-satellite test. Despite JSpOC’s best efforts,
however, these same officials acknowledge that no country has the resources, technical expertise, or geography to meet the growing
demands for SSA. The space debris problem is a classic global governance dilemma: though eleven states can launch satellites, and
over sixty countries or government consortia own or operate the approximately 1,100 active satellites, no one country or group of
countries has the sovereign authority or responsibility for regulating space. Under Article II of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty: “Outer
space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty.”The solution to
reducing the amount of new space debris, mitigating the threat it poses to satellites and spacecraft, and eventually removing on-orbit
debris from space, will require enhanced international cooperation. Last summer, the Obama administration released its National
Space Policy, which featured the objective of preserving the space environment via “the continued development and adoption of
international and industry standards and policies to minimize debris,” and “fostering the development of space collision warning
measures.” Unfortunately, progress toward constructing international agreed upon rules of the road for the responsible uses of space
have been slow going. The views expressed in this article are solely those of Micah Zenko. Read more at his blog, Power, Politics and
Preventive Action.
A massive escalation of debris in space is inevitable.
David, 2009 (Leonard, Space.com’s insider columnist, “Orbital Debris Cleanup Takes Center Stage”, 9-25,
http://www.spacenews.com/civil/orbital-debris-cleanup-takes-center-stage.html)
said collisional
Heiner Klinkrad, head of the European Space Agency’s Space Debris Office in Darmstadt, Germany,
cascading — where one collision has the potential to produce many others — is
unavoidable at this point. “When we do long-term projections of the space debris
environment, it turns out that space debris mitigation measures will delay — but not
prevent — collisional cascading from happening in the low Earth orbit regime,” he said.
“This is even so if we stop all launching activities right now … once that [cascading]
process has started there is no way of controlling it again.”
US Chinese Relations will improve because of the end of the US shuttle program
US Chinese Inevitable
Space DebrisRelations
Young 11 (Connie, CBS head writer, “Can U.S. afford to snub China in space quest?” July 7th,
http://www.cbsnews.com/8300-503543_162-
503543.html?contributor=10470147&tag=contentMain;contentBody, HL)
The fast-approaching end of the U.S. space shuttle program is about to leave America
entirely dependent on its international partners to carry astronauts to and from space
for the foreseeable future, just as a tenuous relationship with China - whose space
program is advancing rapidly - hits an all-time low in the area of space exploration. Beijing was deeply offended when two journalists
from China's state-run Xinhua news agency were barred from covering the historic launch of the shuttle Endeavour in May, the second-to-last mission
for the U.S. shuttle program. Endeavour blasted off from Florida's Kennedy Space Center on May 16, carrying an Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer-2
particle detector - a $1.5 billion apparatus developed, in part, by Chinese scientists. It became a source of national pride in China. Banned from
covering the launch, the government mouthpiece lashed out in a report two days blasting "discriminative" new U.S. legislation which bans any of
NASA's government-apportioned funding being used in partnership with, to support or host any entity of the Chinese government. The Xinhua article
refers to a clause added by Rep. Frank Wolf (R-Va.), chairman of the House committee which oversees NASA's budget - and a fierce critic of China's
human rights record, to an emergency national budget bill passed in April to keep the U.S. government running for six months. Xinhua's article claimed
"even Americans themselves" viewed the so-called "Wolf Clause" as discriminatory. The emergency budget averted a government-wide shutdown, and
it was passed in spite of vocal objections by members of both parties to many of the restrictions included. However, there has been little talk in
Washington specifically about the clause on space cooperation with China, and no U.S. lawmakers have publicly labeled it "discriminative," as Xinhua
suggested. "Obviously, the 'Wolf Clause' runs counter to the trend that both China and the United States are trying to push ahead their exchanges and
cooperation in science and technology," said the Xinhua article. In remarks to the House Appropriations subcommittee explaining his stance, Wolf
made it clear China's dismal record on human rights was behind the legislation blocking any NASA interaction with China's military-run space
program. "Consider our differing worldviews," said Wolf. "The U.S. was founded on the premise that liberty is a birthright, that individual human life is
sacred, that the freedom to worship according to the dictates of your conscience is paramount. The Chinese government operates antithetically to these
beliefs." "There is no clearer indication of the gulf that exists between our two countries than the Chinese government's treatment of its own people."
But experts in U.S.-China relations accuse Wolf of seeking to "ram through a potentially unconstitutional assault on the president's ability to conduct
scientific diplomacy." Gregory Kulacki, a Beijing-based global security analyst and member of the Union of Concerned Scientists wrote in the journal
"Nature" that the restrictions placed on NASA may, in part, be partisan U.S. politics threatening to further exacerbate a relationship already fraught
with distrust. The scientist tells CBS News that Wolf's amendment was "prompted by efforts by the Obama administration to reach out to the Chinese
(on space cooperation) even though the Bush Administration had been doing the same thing for years." "The ban should be lifted," wrote Kulacki
The progress of Chinese space activity during the previous US administration
bluntly. "
suggests that the prohibitions that have stifled Sino-American scientific cooperation for
decades have not achieved their aims, and have arguably been counterproductive. China
has shown that it has the talent and resources to go it alone. The sanctions have only severed links
between the countries and made a new generation of Chinese intellectuals resentful and suspicious of the United States. And they
stand in contrast to the tradition of scientists strengthening diplomatic relations." Other experts agree that cooperation between the
two countries, particularly on space and science projects, is mutually beneficial. Mitigating space debris and collecting data for
weather and natural disasters around the globe, once spearheaded by former Secretary of State Collin Powell, are a few examples of
common interests. Joan Johnson-Freese, Chairman of the National Security Decision Making Department at the U.S. Naval War
College, an expert on China's space program, agrees with Kulacki's assessment. "I think (the bill) is fool-hearted," she told CBS News
ought to be working with them on things like space debris and we
in a telephone interview. "We
also should be working with them so that we can learn more about their program."
"There are a number of members of Congress who are adamant we will not work with China,"
said Johnson-Freese. "Meanwhile, China is reaching out and working with many, many
countries." Beijing now has cooperative agreements with Russia, Canada, Europe,
Venezuela as well as neighboring countries. Collaborations include joint satellite
projects, aerospace university exchanges, export of communication satellites and the
sharing of some of its satellite imaging data for natural resources. "About the only country that has
said 'no thank you' to cooperation with China, is the United States," noted Johnson-Freese. The "Wolf Clause" expires with the rest
of the emergency budget in Sept. 2011. It's not clear how much support his stance has in Congress, and thus how likely it is NASA's
ban on cooperation a longer-term ban on NASA's cooperation with China is when a longer-term budget bill is considered in the late
summer and early autumn. "I don't doubt the intentions of Congressman Wolf, or the sincerity of his views. I think he honestly
believes he's doing the right thing here," Kulacki told CBS News. "I just wish he would take some time to reconsider his position."
Space X has high hopes for their new rocket
Hennigan 11 (W.J., aerospace writer for the Los Angeles Times, Head “SpaceX is
making $30-million bet on rocket at Vandenberg,” July 12th, Los Angeles Times,
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-vandenberg-launchsite-
20110713,0,798014.story, HL)
Space X has high hopes for their new rocket
The Hawthorne company is set to break ground on a launchpad and hangar at the Air
Force base for its Falcon Heavy, which would be the world's most powerful rocket. A
sprawling hangar to house the assembly of the world's most powerful rocket and a launchpad
capable of handling the earthshaking blast is being developed northwest of Santa Barbara at
Vandenberg Air Force Base. Hawthorne-based rocket venture SpaceX said it was investing $30
million at the base's Space Launch Complex 4-East for its upcoming 22-story Falcon Heavy
rocket. The company, formally known as Space Exploration Technologies Corp., hopes to use
the launchpad for the first time at the end of next year in a demonstration flight of the
27-engine rocket for the U.S. government. After that, the company hopes to use the
facility to launch satellites for military and commercial customers. Situated along the
Pacific Ocean, Vandenberg has primarily been used for launching spy satellites since the
beginning of the Cold War because its location is considered ideal for putting satellites into a
north-to-south orbit. Because of its worldwide customer base in launching telecommunications
satellites, SpaceX is expected to broaden the nature of work done at the base. "SpaceX is
going to be the biggest game in town at Vandenberg," Elon Musk, the company's chief executive,
said in an interview with The Times. "We're going to put Vandenberg on the world stage." Musk,
40, who made a fortune when he sold online payment business PayPal Inc. in 2002, said SpaceX
hopes the $30 million to build the complex will also create jobs. By 2015, he forecasts the
company will have 1,000 people working there and will be launching as often as eight
times a year. Those are heady numbers considering SpaceX's current workforce stands at
1,400, it has just two successful test launches of its smaller nine-engine Falcon 9 rockets and has
yet to launch the Falcon Heavy. "SpaceX's first launch here will undoubtedly be a huge
event for everyone involved," said Lt. Austin Fallin, a spokesman at Vandenberg. "SpaceX is expected to have a big presence out here in the coming
years." The company is set to break ground Wednesday on the launchpad even though there are no guarantees that the military or NASA will step forward to pay for the Falcon
Heavy to lift its payloads into space someday. Musk said he was confident that his company's sales pitch of low-cost launches will appeal to potential customers. The company
has a backlog of launches, which includes a $1.6-billion contract to service the International Space Station and a $492-million contract with telecommunications company
Iridium Communications Inc. of McLean, Va., to launch satellites from Vandenberg aboard the Falcon 9. But Musk's goal at Vandenberg is to secure contracts with the Air Force.
"We want to launch large satellites for the Air Force," he said. "The aim is for the Air Force to open up the competition." The Pentagon currently has only has one launch
provider, United Launch Alliance, a joint venture of Lockheed Martin Corp. and Boeing Co., to lift its precious $1-billion spy satellites into orbit. To lift its heaviest satellites, the
Air Force uses United Launch Alliance's Delta IV Heavy rocket. The 23-story rocket blasted off for the first time from Vandenberg in January. It was the tallest ever to be
launched from the base and received plenty of attention — the kind that boosters of the nearby Lompoc area want to see more often. "The hotels were booked up, restaurants
were busy and people were clogging up the streets when that thing went off," said Dennis Headrick of the Lompoc Valley Chamber of Commerce. "We could have balanced the
budget if we charged a toll on the road to and from the beach. There was a constant parade of cars." The Delta IV Heavy, which is currently the nation's largest unmanned rocket,
is capable of lifting a maximum payload of about 50,000 pounds into low Earth orbit. SpaceX's Falcon Heavy is set to be twice as powerful, capable of lifting 117,000 pounds to
low Earth orbit and go for a fraction of the Delta IV's price, Musk said. Launches on the Falcon Heavy would cost $80 million to $125 million, according to SpaceX. Each launch
on a Delta IV Heavy costs up to $275 million, the Federal Aviation Administration estimated. Musk said his company could keep its costs down because it makes almost all of its
parts in-house, mostly in a complex in Hawthorne where fuselages for Boeing's 747 jumbo jet were once assembled. But the rocket industry is notoriously difficult to enter and
littered with failed attempts. SpaceX's first rocket — the Falcon 1 — failed three times before it successfully carried a satellite into space. The company's 18-story Falcon 9 and its
Dragon space capsule, which is seen by NASA as a possible successor to the retiring space shuttle, has made just two flights into orbit, with a third slated for this year. "With the
last launch of the shuttle, there will be a lot more eyes on what the commercial companies are doing," Lompoc Mayor John Linn said. "There's a new excitement in the space
industry and with this new pad, Space X is bringing that attention to us."
New Chinese counter space weapons worry US
Strait Times 11 (“China’s hostile space capabilities worry US,” February 5th, Strait Times,
http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Asia/Story/STIStory_631475.html, HL)
WASHINGTON - CHINA is developing 'counter-space' weapons that could shoot down
satellites or jam signals, a Pentagon official said on Friday as the United States unveiled a 10-
year strategy for security in space.
'The investment China is putting into counter-space capabilities is a matter of concern to
us,' deputy secretary of defence for space policy Gregory Schulte told reporters as the defence
and intelligence communities released their 10-year National Security Space Strategy (NSSS).
The NSSS marks a huge shift from past practice, outlining a 10-year path for the United States to take in space to ensure it becomes
'more resilient' and can defend its assets in a dramatically more crowded, competitive and challenging environment, Mr Schulte
said.
A key reason for developing the new strategy was 'concern about the number of counter-
space capabilities that are being developed,' said Mr Schulte.
China's hostile space capabilities worry US
'China is at the forefront of the development of those capabilities,' he said.
China in 2007 shot down one of its own weather satellites using a medium-range ground
missile, sparking international concern not only about how China 'weaponising' space, but also
about the debris from the satellite that is still floating around in space. -- AFP
Sénéchal 7 [Thierry, founding partner of INDEVAL Switzerland. He holds degrees in economics and
finance from Harvard University, London Business School, and Columbia University with highest
honours (Phi Beta Kappa)., 2007, Space Debris Pollution: A Convention Proposal,
http://www.pon.org/downloads/ien16.2.Senechal.pdf]
It is time to recognize that while space may be infinite, Earth orbital space is a finite natural resource that must be
managed properly. The outer space environment should be preserved to enable countries to explore outer
space for peaceful purposes, without any constraints. It has become obvious that space debris poses a
danger to human life as well as to the environment and the economic activities of all nations in space. The
problem we face is complex and serious; the danger posed by the human-made debris to operational spacecraft (pilotless or piloted) is a growing
concern. Because debris remains in orbit for long period of time, they tend to accumulate, particularly in the low earth orbit. What is certain today
is that the current debris population in the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) region has reached the point where the environment is unstable and collisions
will become the most dominant debris-generating mechanism in the future. The tremendous increase in the probability of
collision exists in the near future (about 10 to 50 years). Some collisions will lead to breakups and will
sow fragments all over the geosynchronous area, making it simply uninhabitable and unreliable for
scientific and commercial purposes. In the early years of the space era, mankind was concerned primarily
with conquering space. The process of placing an aircraft in Earth‘s orbit and targeting the moon was such
a challenge that little thought was given to the consequences that might arise from these actions. Space debris
has thus been created at the time of the cold war, when the military and space race between the two great powers of the time was at its peak. Not
much can be done to change what has been done during the last decades of the 20th Century.
Right Now is the Tipping Point- NASA has only enough capability to solve for current debris
Grossman 11 [ Lisa Grossman: Wired, NASA Considers Shooting Space Junk With Lasers, March 15,
2011 http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/03/lasering-space-junk, HL]
The growing cloud of space junk surrounding the Earth is a hazard to spaceflight, and will only get worse
as large pieces of debris collide and fragment. NASA space scientists have hit on a new way to manage the mess: Use mid-
powered lasers to nudge space junk off collision courses. The U.S. military currently tracks about 20,000 pieces of junk in low-Earth orbit, most
of which are discarded bits of spacecraft or debris from collisions in orbit. The atmosphere naturally drags a portion of this refuse down to Earth
every year. But in 1978, NASA astronomer Don Kessler predicted a doomsday scenario: As collisions drive up the debris, we’ll
hit a point where the amount of trash is growing faster than it can fall out of the sky. The Earth will end up with a
permanent junk belt that could make space too dangerous to fly in, a situation now called “Kessler syndrome.” Low-Earth orbit has
already seen some scary smashes and near-misses, including the collision of two communications
satellites in 2009. Fragments from that collision nearly hit the International Space Station a few months
later. Some models found that the runaway Kessler syndrome is probably already underway at certain
orbit elevations. “There’s not a lot of argument that this is going to screw us if we don’t do something,” said NASA engineer
Creon Levit. “Right now it’s at the tipping point … and it just keeps getting worse.”
China’s Space Program is growing fast, But US China Space relations are strong.
China’s is Massive Influx Growing Fast
Now a key to solve Space Debris
Space Exploration CausesSpace Program is of Space Debris and turns case.
Associated Press 11 (“China Aiming High in Space as U.S. Shuttle Program Winds Down, July
11th, Fox News, http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/07/11/china-aiming-high-in-
space-as-us-shuttle-program-winds-down/, HL)
This year, a rocket will carry a train car-sized module into orbit, the first building block for a
Chinese space station. Around 2013, China plans to launch a lunar probe that will set a rover loose
on the moon. It wants to put a man on the moon, sometime after 2020. While the United States is
still working out its next move as the space shuttle program winds down, China is forging ahead.
Some experts worry the U.S. could slip behind China in human spaceflight -- the realm of space
science with the most prestige. "Space leadership is highly symbolic of national capability es and
international influence, and a decline in space leadership will be seen as symbolic of a relative
decline in U.S. power and influence," said Scott Pace, an associate NASA administrator in the George
W. Bush administration. He was a supporter of Bush's plan -- shelved by President Obama -- to
return Americans to the moon. China is still far behind the U.S. in space technology and experience,
but what it doesn't lack is a plan or financial resources. While U.S. programs can fall victim to
budgetary worries or a change of government, rapidly growing China appears to have no such
constraints.
"One of the biggest advantages of their system is that they have five-year plans so they can develop
well ahead," said Peter Bond, consultant editor for Jane's Space Systems and Industry. "They are
taking a step-by-step approach, taking their time and gradually improving their capabilities. They
are putting all the pieces together for a very capable, advanced space industry." In 2003, China
became the third country to send an astronaut into space on its own, four decades after the United
States and Russia. In 2006, it sent its first probe to the moon. In 2008, China carried out its first
spacewalk. China's space station is slated to open around 2020, the same year the International
Space Station is scheduled to close. If the U.S. and its partners don't come up with a replacement,
China could have the only permanent human presence in the sky. Its space laboratory module, due
to be launched later this year, will test docking techniques for the space station. China's version will
be smaller than the International Space Station, which is the size of a football field and jointly
operated by the U.S., Russia, Canada, Japan and 11 European countries.
"China has lagged 20 to 40 years behind the U.S. in developing space programs and China has no
intention of challenging U.S. dominance in space," said He Qisong, a professor at Shanghai University of Political
Science and Law. "But it is a sign of the national spirit for China to develop a space program and therefore it is of great significance for
China." Some elements of China's program, notably the firing of a ground-based missile into one of its dead satellites four years ago, have
alarmed American officials and others who say such moves could set off a race to militarize space. That the program is run by the military
has made the U.S. reluctant to cooperate with China in space, even though the latter insists its program is purely for peaceful ends. "Space
technology can be applied for both civilian and military use, but China doesn't stress the military purpose," said Li Longchen, retired
editor-in-chief of Chinese magazine "Space Probe." "It has been always hard for humankind to march into space and China must learn the
lessons from the U.S." China is not the only country aiming high in space. Russia has talked about building a base on the moon and a
possible mission to Mars but hasn't set a time frame. India, which has already achieved an unmanned orbit of the moon, is planning its
first manned space flight in 2016.
The U.S. has no plans to return to the moon. "We've been there before," Obama said last year. "There's a lot more of space to explore." He
prefers sending astronauts to land on an asteroid by 2025 and ultimately to Mars. But those plans are far from set. Instead, NASA is
closing out its 30-year space shuttle era this month, leaving the U.S. dependent on hitching rides to the space station aboard Russian
Soyuz capsules at a cost of $56 million per passenger, rising to $63 million from 2014. The U.S. also hopes private companies will develop
spacecraft to ferry cargo and crew to the space station. China, having orbited the moon and starting collecting data on it, is moving
toward sending a man there -- and beyond. It hopes to launch the rover-releasing moon probe in about two years. Chinese experts
believe a moon landing will happen in 2025 at the earliest. "The lunar probe is the starting point for deep space exploration," said Wu
Weiren, chief designer of China's moon-exploring program, in a 2010 interview posted on the national space agency's website. "We first
need to do a good job of exploring the moon and work out the rocket, transportation and detection technology that can then be used for a
future exploration of Mars or Venus." In testimony in May to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, which reports to
the U.S. Congress, former NASA official Pace said what China learns in its space program can be applied elsewhere: improving the
accuracy of ballistic missiles and quality controls for industry. China also offers space technology to developing countries to secure access
to raw materials, said Pace, now director of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University. There may also be economic
reasons to explore the moon: It contains minerals and helium-3, a potential rich source of energy through nuclear fusion. "But that's way
ahead," said Bond, the Jane's editor. "A lot of it would be prestige, the fact that every time we went out and looked at the moon in the
night sky we would say the Chinese flag is on there."
Only a global approach to space debris solves
Secure World Foundation 2009 (“What Can the World Do About Space Debris? An Urgent Call
to Action”, 5-12, http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=28192, HL)
Over the past decade and a half, the world’s major space agencies have been developing a
set of orbital debris mitigation guidelines aimed at stemming the creation of new space
debris and lessening the impact of existing debris on satellites and human spaceflight. A
version of these guidelines was unanimously endorsed by the United Nations in 2008 and several States are in the process of
critical next step is
implementing or have already implemented these voluntary measures. The Congress noted that a
engaging with the growing number of developing countries that are using satellites to help
protect their populations and manage natural resources. While they may not have independent spacefaring capabilities,
orbital debris is an area of concern for them and they can contribute meaningfully to the
process. Space debris is primarily a global issue. Global problems need globally solutions,
which must be effectively implemented internationally as well as nationally, said McGill
University’s Ram Jakhu, Chair of the Congress. Tackling the difficult issue of mitigating the destructive effects of space debris requires the
attention of experts versed in the legal, policy, and technical and scientific aspects of space debris, said Dr. Ray Williamson, Executive
interdisciplinary Congress illuminated many of the most
Director of Secure World Foundation. This
difficult and thorny issues inherent in tackling space debris problems and provided some
important suggestions on a way forward, Williamson said. To this end, the Congress explored a variety of legal
options for further implementation of debris mitigation guideline s. One possibility mentioned is the establishment
of an international regime for dealing with orbital debris similar to the Missile Technology
Control Regime, or perhaps the Limited Test Ban Treaty of 1963. There are a variety of
other means within international law as well, including codes, declarations and treaties.
Lasers cannot do enough to reduce space debris.
Grossman 11 (Lisa, Wired Science, “NASA Considers Shooting Space Junk With Lasers” March
14th, http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/03/lasering-space-junk/#more-54167 NKS)
The laser to be used in the new system is the kind used for welding and cutting in car factories and other industrial processes. They’re
commercially available for about $0.8 million. The rest of the system could cost between a few and a few tens of millions
of dollars, depending on whether the researchers build it from scratch or modify an existing
telescope, perhaps a telescope at the Air Force Maui Optical Station in Hawaii or at Mt. Stromlo in Australia.
“This system solves technological problems, makes them cheaper, and makes it less of a threat that these will be used for nefarious
things,” said space security expert Brian Weeden, a technical adviser for the Secure World Foundation who was not involved in the
new study. “It’s certainly very interesting.”
However, “I don’t think this is a long-term solution,” Weeden said. “It might be useful to buy
some time. But I don’t think it would replace the need to remove debris, or stop creating new
junk.”
Don Kessler, from whom the Kessler syndrome takes its name, agrees, and points out that laser light isn’t
forceful enough to divert the biggest pieces of junk.
“The only complete solution to is to prevent collisions involving the most massive objects in
Earth orbit,” he said.
US China Debris Collide in Space
Only cannot do Debris to space debris debris.
global approach to reduce space
Lasers aUS China enoughCollide in Spacesolves
David 5 (Leonard, Senior Space Writer, “U.S.-China Space Debris Collide in Orbit,” April
16th, http://www.space.com/969-china-space-debris-collide-orbit.html, HL)
In a unique case of space bumper cars, two pieces of rocket hardware have collided high
above Earth. The orbital run-in involved a 31-year-old U.S. rocket body and a fragment
from a more recently launched Chinese rocket stage.
The collision occurred on January 17 of this year, with the incident happening some 550 miles
(885 kilometers) above Earth. That area of low Earth orbit (LEO) has an above-average satellite
population density. The American and Chinese space hardware cruised through space in
similar orbits at the time of the rear-ender.
The U.S. Surveillance Network of space-watching gear detected the collision, with the episode
reported in the April issue of The Orbital Debris Quarterly News, a publication of the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office at the
Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas. Involved in the collision was a discarded U.S. Thor Burner 2A upper stage used to toss a
satellite payload into Earth orbit back in 1974.
The other piece was a fragment of the third stage of a Chinese CZ-4 launch vehicle exploded in March 2000. When the objects
smacked into each other, analysis indicates that the orbits of both were slightly perturbed at the same time that three more chunks of
debris - large enough to be detected and cataloged - were released from the U.S. rocket body. The Orbital Debris Quarterly News
also reports another accidental collision. This one took place in late December 1991. In this case, a Russian non-functional
navigation satellite, Cosmos 1934, had a run-in with a piece of junk from a sister spacecraft, Cosmos 926. The event was only
recognized recently when U.S. Space Surveillance Network specialists were examining historical tracking data. Debris resulted from
the first
this collision too, but the fragments were too small to be tracked. As noted by the NASA newsletter on orbital debris,
recognized fender-bender between cataloged objects from different missions involved
an operational spacecraft and a fragment from a launch vehicle upper stage which had
suffered a post-mission breakup. In that event -- which happened on July 24, 1996 -- the
French CERISE spacecraft collided with a fragment from the third stage of an Ariane 1 booster,
which had exploded ten years earlier. Looking into the future, the Orbital Debris Quarterly News
adds this sobering note: "As the number of objects in Earth orbit increases, the likelihood
of accidental collisions will also increase. Currently, hundreds of close
approaches...between cataloged objects occur on a daily basis. If future spacecraft and
rocket bodies are not removed from LEO within a moderate amount of time after the
end of mission, e.g., within 25 years, the rate of accidental collisions will increase
markedly later in this century."
Bit
New Space Debris Solution is Needed Soon
Boyle 11 (Alan, MSBC Science Editor, “Space Junk Solution in the Works,” July 11,
http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/07/11/7062471-space-junk-solution-in-the-
works, HL)
The space-junk alerts that have been sounded on the International Space Station over
the past couple of weeks highlight the need for the “Space Fence,” a next-generation system for
tracking orbital debris that’s due to begin operation in 2015. One of the alerts, on June 28, came so late
that the station didn't have time to get out of the way. The six astronauts living aboard the
orbital outpost had to take shelter in Russian Soyuz lifeboats while debris of unknown
origin zoomed past at a distance of just 850 feet (260 meters). The other alert came Sunday,
just as the space shuttle Atlantis was beginning its last visit to the space station. Initially,
mission managers worried that the station-shuttle complex would have to be moved out of the
way of some Soviet-era satellite debris, but today they said the junk would pass by harmlessly at
Space Junk Needs a Solution
a distance of 11 miles (18 kilometers). The first case in particular demonstrates why debris-
trackers need to know more about what's out there, said Doug Burgess, manager for space
situational awareness programs at Raytheon. "They only had 15 hours to make a decision about
whether to maneuver or not, and clearly human life was at stake," Burgess told me today. "If the
capability that Space Fence brings to bear were available, they would have had a much longer
lead time." Today, orbital-debris trackers at NASA and the U.S. Strategic Command can keep
track of only the tip of the iceberg: About 20,000 pieces of space junk have been cataloged, but
experts estimate that somewhere between 100,000 and 500,000 objects larger than a
centimeter (half an inch) are in Earth orbit. At orbital speeds of up to 17,500 mph, even an
inch-wide piece of debris could destroy a satellite or damage the space station if it struck
in the wrong place.
Satellites are key to the economy
Dowd 2 [ Alan W. Dowd: Senior fellow at the Sagamore Institute for Policy Research.,
November 22, 2002, Taking the High Ground: The U.S. Military Marches into Space,
http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=2094&pubType=HI_Ar
ticles, HL]
Space already plays a crucial role in the U.S. economy, and America’s dependence on
space will only deepen in the coming decades. Whether we recognize it or not, what happens in space affects
our very way of life. “More than any other country,” Rumsfeld argues, “the United States relies on space for its
security and well-being.” The United States has more than 800 active satellites and
probes orbiting the earth at this very moment. Fully a quarter of them have no military
purpose at all. Instead, they circle the earth to relay everything from Nike ads to the Nikkei Average; improve the use and
development of farmland; guide ships, planes and trucks to their destinations; synchronize financial networks; support police and
fire departments; and connect a people and an economy that move at ever-increasing speed.
Debris is to triple by 2030
David 11 [ Leonard David: Space.com, “Ugly Truth of Space Junk: Orbital Debris Problem to Triple by 2030”, May 9, 2011,
http://www.space.com/11607-space-junk-rising-orbital-debris-levels-2030.html, HL]
Dealing with the decades of detritus from using outer space -- human-made orbital
debris -- is a global concern, but some experts are now questioning the feasibility of the wide range of "solutions"
sketched out to grapple with high-speed space litter. What may be shaping up is an "abandon in place"
posture for certain orbital altitudes -- an outlook that flags the messy message resulting
from countless bits of orbital refuse. In a recent conference here, Gen. William Shelton, commander of the U.S. Air
Force Space Command, relayed his worries about rising amounts of human-made space junk. The traffic is increasing.
We've now got over 50 nations that are participants in the space environment," Shelton said
last month during the Space Foundation’s 27th National Space Symposium. Given existing space situational awareness capabilities,
over 20,000 objects are now tracked. [Worst Space Debris Events of All Time] "We catalog those routinely and keep track of them.
That number is projected to triple by 2030, and much of that is improved sensors, but
some of that is increased traffic," Shelton said. "Then if you think about it, there are probably 10 times more objects
in space than we're able to track with our sensor capability today. Those objects are untrackable … yet they are lethal to
Debris is key to the 2030
Satellites areto triple byeconomy
our space systems -- to military space systems, civil space systems, commercial -- no
one’s immune from the threats that
Solar Sails are the solution to stop large asteroids like Apophis
Hsu 10 (Jeremy, Senior Writer at Space.com, “Solar Sail Flotilla Could Divert Possibly Dangerous
Asteroid,”December 22, http://www.space.com/10531-solar-sail-flotilla-divert-possibly-dangerous-
asteroid.html, HL)
A flotilla of solar sail spacecrafts could change the course of the asteroid Apophis —
which is headed a little too close to Earth for comfort — by shading the space rock from
solar radiation, according to a French researcher. Such a plan could help shift Apophis into
a slightly safer orbit by the time it is expected to swing by Earth on April 13, 2036. But experts have
warned previously that any efforts to divert the space rock could actually make matters worse. The preliminary concept idea was
proposed at a symposium on solar sails ? which are spacecraft powered by sunlight pushing against a sail ? a few months ago at the
New York City College of Technology in Brooklyn. "Apophis is a nice target for launching this kind of mission for 20 years from now;
not too far, not too close," said Jean-Yves Prado, an engineer at the National Center for Space Study (CNES) in France. A group
of formation-flying solar sails could alter the asteroid's course by eliminating the so-called
Yarkovsky effect, a phenomenon described by Russian engineer I.O. Yarkovsky a century ago.
That effect occurs when the sun warms an asteroid more on the sun-facing side than the
far side. The rock then emits more thermal radiation on its near side, which creates a bit
Space Debris stops all Space Colonization
Dinerman 4 (Taylor, Founder of the Magazine, ‘Space Equity,” “Space debris: not just an
American problem?”, November 4th, http://www.thespacereview.com/article/279/1, HL)
All too often, people claim that space debris constitutes an imminent crisis. They say that there
is so much stuff is up there that it is going to destroy numerous satellites and, eventually, render
any human activity in orbit impossible. There are, in fact, several million kilograms of man-
made gear, some of it in the form of operational satellites and spacecraft, and some of it useless
junk. A few experts say that, eventually, there will be so much garbage up there that humanity
will be confined to the Earth whether it wants to leave or not.
Solar Sails are the solution to stop large asteroids like Apophis
of thrust and changes its momentum slightly. "It's really a very small effect and doesn't
apply to very small asteroids because the temperature would be quite negligible, so thrust is
negligible," Prado explained. "It also does not apply to very large asteroids because they are too
heavy." But for Apophis, which falls just in the middle of that mass range, the effect could make
a difference. The proposed mission would deploy four 441-pound (200 kg) solar sails
from a transfer module that used solar electric propulsion to reach Apophis. Previous
spacecraft that have used solar electric propulsion include NASA's Deep Space 1 and Dawn
probes. Once deployed, the solar sails would hover a few kilometers above the space rock
and fly in formation according to master control by the transfer module, without a direct
link between Earth and the individual sails. The module could also position itself as a small
gravity tractor to provide a small gravitational push on Apophis, Prado suggested. A previous
NASA assessment of possible asteroid deflection methods had placed solar sails relatively high
in terms of readily available and not-too-complex technology. Launch windows would become
available for such a mission to launch aboard a Russian Soyuz-Fregat rocket in 2016 and 2019,
Prado said. He added that a second redundant mission could also launch to ensure success.
Several other solar sail researchers at the symposium raised questions about the mission design.
One questioned the need for a chemical propulsion system on each solar sail that would balance
out the solar pressure and keep the sails flying in their proper place. Prado replied that his group
had examined the possibility of using solar electric propulsion to also maintain low thrust and
keep the solar sails in place, but had ruled it out based on cost.
Space debris collisions with a craft is inevitable
Glaister 7 (Dan, Writer at The Guardian, ’’Guardian International
Pages; Pg. 2,” February 7th, LexisNexis, HL)
An anti-satellite weapon test conducted by China last month has added at least 800
pieces of junk to the Earth's orbit, fuelling concerns that space debris has reached a
critical mass.
Scientists fear that the number of objects in space means that a collision with a craft or
an orbiting satellite is now inevitable, leading to a chain reaction and a cascade of
collisions.
China launched an anti-satellite rocket on January 11, destroying an old weather satellite 537 miles above the Earth. Early estimates
by scientists and US authorities tracking the debris suggested that between 500 and 800 pieces of debris measuring more than 10cm
(4in) wide were created by the blast. Officially 647 pieces had been detected, but hundreds more were being tracked. Because the
blast took place so far above the Earth's surface the debris is expected to remain in orbit for tens and perhaps thousands of years.
Such tests are usually conducted at a lower altitude, but it is thought that the Chinese chose not to endanger the International Space
Station orbiting 220 miles above the earth. The debris from the blast has spread since the explosion, and now ranges from 100 to
2,000 miles above the Earth. The new debris joins thousands of pieces of junk orbiting the Earth.
It includes 3,100 spacecraft, two-thirds of them inactive, spent rocket stages, even a camera. The
US air force reportedly monitors 14,000 pieces of space junk. "There's a lot of stuff up there in
low-Earth orbit," TS Kelso, a space-surveillance analyst, told Space News. "While we can't tell them that
'five months from now, you're at risk for being hit,' it's not unreasonable to expect that it's going to affect a lot of stuff in orbit."
Nicholas Johnson, Nasa's chief scientist for orbital debris, told the New York Times: "It's
inevitable. A significant piece of debris will run into an old rocket body, and that will
create more debris. It's a bad situation." Donald Kessler, a former head of Nasa's debris
Space Debris collisions with a craft is inevitable
programme, and the man who gave his name to the Kessler syndrome - the notion that one day
there will be so much space junk that it will be impossible to launch - told the paper that the
Chinese test had merely hastened the inevitable. "If the Chinese didn't do the test, it would still
happen," he said. "It just wouldn't happen as quickly. “In April China is to host the annual
meeting of the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee. Mr Kessler expected that
Chinese officials might feel "some embarrassment".
Space Exploration leads to militarization
Et al Duvall 06 (Raymond Duvall and Jonathan Havercroft, University of Minnesota + University of Victoria Professors, March
22, “Taking Sovereignty Out of This World: Space Weaponization and the Production of Late-Modern Political Subjects,”
International Studies Association.
http://www.allacademic.com//meta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/0/9/8/6/8/pages98680/p98680-1.php, HL)
The weaponization of space—the act of placing weapons in outer space—has an intimate
relationship to space exploration, in that the history of the former is embedded in the latter,
while the impetus for space exploration, in turn, is embedded in histories of military
development. Since the launch of Sputnik, states that have ability to access— and hence to
explore—outer space have sought ways in which that access could improve their military
capabilities. Consequently, militaries in general and the U.S. military in particular have had a
strong interest in the military uses of space for the last half century. Early on, the military
interest in space had two direct expressions: enhancing surveillance; and developing rocketry
technologies that could be put to use for earthbased weapons, such as missiles. Militaries also
have a vested interest in the “dual-use” technologies that are often developed in space
exploration missions. While NASA goes to great lengths in its public relations to stress the
benefits to science and the (American) public of its space explorations, it is noteworthy that
many of the technologies developed for those missions also have potential military use.
Martel 03 (William C., Professor of National Security Affairs @ the Naval War College in Rhode Island
“Averting a Sino-U.S. Space Race”, The Washington Quarterly, Autumn 2003)
Strategists in the United States and in China are clearly monitoring the other's developments in
space. How the United States judges Chinese intentions and capabilities will determine
Washington's response; of course, the reverse is equally true. As each side eyes the other, the
potential for mutual misperceptions can have serious and destabilizing consequences in the long
term. In particular, both countries' exaggerated views of each other could lead unnecessarily to
competitive action-reaction cycles. What exactly does such an action-reaction cycle mean? What
would a bilateral space race look like? Hypothetically, in the next 10 years, some critical sectors
of China's economy and military could become increasingly vulnerable to disruptions in space.
During this same period, Sino-U.S. relations may not improve appreciably, and the Taiwan
question could remain unresolved. If Washington and Beijing could increasingly hold each
other's space infrastructure hostage by threatening to use military options in times of crisis, then
potentially risky paths to preemption could emerge in the policy planning processes in both
capitals. In preparing for a major contingency in the Taiwan Strait, both the United States and
China might be compelled to plan for a disabling, blinding attack on the other's space systems
before the onset of hostilities. The most troubling dimension to this scenario is that some
elements of preemption (already evident in U.S. global doctrine) could become a permanent
feature of U.S. and Chinese strategies in space. Indeed, Chinese strategic writings today suggest
that the leadership in Beijing believes that preemption is the rational way to prevent future U.S.
military intervention. If leaders in Beijing and Washington were to position themselves to
preempt each other, then the two sides would enter an era of mutual hostility, one that might
include destabilizing, hair-trigger defense postures in space where both sides stand ready to
Space militarization makes war with China
USSpace exploration leads to militarization
launch a first strike on a moment's notice. One scenario involves the use of weapons, such as
lasers or jammers, which seek to blind sensors on imaging satellites or disable satellites that
provide warning of missile launches. Imagine, for example, Washington's reaction if China
disabled U.S. missile warning satellites or vice versa. In that case, Sino-U.S. relations would be
highly vulnerable to the misinterpretations and miscalculations that could lead to a conflict in
space. Although attacks against space assets would likely be a precursor or a complement to a
broader crisis or conflict, and although conflicts in the space theater may not generate many
casualties or massive physical destruction, the economic costs of conflict in space alone for both
sides, and for the international community, would be extraordinary given that many states
depend on satellites for their economic well-being.