3QFY2012 Result Update | IT
February 9, 2012
Tech Mahindra ACCUMULATE
CMP `659
Performance Highlights Target Price `693
(` cr) 3QFY12 2QFY12 % chg (qoq) 3QFY11 % chg (yoy) Investment Period 12 months
Net revenue 1,445 1,333 8.4 1,211 19.3
EBITDA 234 204 14.8 250 (6.2) Stock Info
EBITDA margin (%) 16.2 15.3 90bp 20.6 (441)bp Sector IT
Adj. PAT* 276 290 (5.0) 257 7.4 Market Cap (` cr) 8,593
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*exclude one-offs Beta 1.0
52 Week High / Low 798/524
For 3QFY2012, Tech Mahindra reported subdued performance with revenue as
Avg. Daily Volume 41,643
well as profit coming in below ours as well as street’s expectations. BT business
Face Value (`) 10
was a major growth dampener, USD revenue of which declined by 7.8% qoq.
BSE Sensex 17,831
Growth came from non-BT business yet again, which grew by 0.6% qoq. BT has
started retendering its work; this poses risk to Tech Mahindra’s revenue run rate. Nifty 5,412
However, due to the company’s stake in Mahindra Satyam, we maintain our Reuters Code TEML.BO
Accumulate rating on the stock. Bloomberg Code TECHM.IN
Result highlights: For 3QFY2012, Tech Mahindra reported USD revenue of
US$288.7mn, down 2.5% qoq due to a 0.5% qoq decline in volume and ~2.0% Shareholding Pattern (%)
qoq negative cross-currency impact. In INR terms, revenue came in at `1,445cr, Promoters 70.9
up 8.4% qoq, largely aided by qoq INR depreciation. EBITDA margin of the MF / Banks / Indian Fls 15.2
company improved by 90bp qoq to 16.2% on the back of INR depreciation.
FII / NRIs / OCBs 4.9
Outlook and valuation: We expect the non-BT business to post a CQGR of 2.4% Indian Public / Others 9.0
over 3QFY2012-4QFY2013, with BT’s quarterly revenue expected to be flat from
here. However, there is a caveat that BT’s revenue may see a downside if the
company loses out its market share in the retendering process initiated by BT. Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
In fact, even if the company manages to hold the share or increase it, it can be Sensex (3.4) (4.6) 75.0
margin dilutive as the client has initiated this retendering process as part of its Tech Mahindra 9.5 12.7 181.1
cost-cutting drive with lower pricing expectation. Thus, we expect a 7.6% CAGR in
USD revenue over FY2011-13E. The company’s core EPS is expected to post a
negative CAGR over FY2011-13E. The only potential upside is due to the
company’s stake in Mahindra Satyam, which is improving its overall profitability.
We continue to value the company at 55% discount to Infosys’ target PE i.e., at 8x
the company’s consolidated EPS of `86.4 and maintain our Accumulate rating on
the stock with a target price of `693.
Key financials (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
Net sales 4,465 4,625 5,140 5,520 6,153
% chg 18.6 3.6 11.1 7.4 11.5
Reported net profit 1,014 700 643 1,061 1,140
% chg (30.9) (8.3) 65.1 7.4
EBITDA margin (%) 27.2 24.5 19.5 16.9 17.1
EPS (`) 77.4 53.6 49.3 84.2 86.4
P/E (x) 8.5 12.3 13.4 7.8 7.6
P/BV (x) 4.4 3.0 2.6 2.0 1.6
RoE (%) 48.7 24.6 23.5 24.5 21.1
RoCE (%) 56.6 19.8 16.6 14.6 15.0 Ankita Somani
EV/Sales (x) 1.8 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.3 +022 3935 7800 Ext: 6819
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.6 9.3 9.5 9.8 7.9 ankita.somani@angelbroking.com
Source: Company, Angel Research
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
Tech Mahindra | 3QFY2012 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 3QFY2012 performance (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
(` cr) 3QFY12 2QFY12 % chg (qoq) 3QFY11 % chg (yoy) 9MFY12 9MFY11 % chg (yoy)
Net revenue 1,445 1,333 8.4 1,211 19.3 4,071 3,580 13.7
Cost of revenue 986 907 8.7 788 25.1 2,747 2,318 18.5
Gross profit 459 426 7.6 423 8.5 1,323 1,261 4.9
SG&A expense 225 222 1.0 173 29.7 643 530 21.3
EBITDA 234 204 14.8 250 (6.2) 680 731 (7.0)
Dep. and amortisation 39 51 (23.1) 35 12.4 123 105 17.5
EBIT 195 153 27.3 215 (9.2) 557 626 (11.0)
Interest 34 33 25 90 53
Other income 15 59 52 73 79
PBT 176 179 (1.4) 242 (27.2) 541 651 (17.0)
Income taxes 29 39 (25.2) 36 (18.1) 120 109 9.8
PAT 147 139 5.3 206 (28.7) 421 542 (22.3)
Minority interest 2 1 380.0 1 300.0 4 2 89.5
PAT after minority interest 144 139 4.0 205 (29.7) 418 541 (22.7)
Profit from associates 132 102 52 329 158
Exceptional item - 50 - 50 (143)
Final PAT 276 240 14.7 257 7.4 747 699 6.9
Adj. PAT 276 290 (5.0) 257 7.4 797 555 43.5
Diluted EPS 20.9 22.0 (5.1) 19.7 6.1 43 22.5 90.7
Gross margin (%) 31.8 32.0 (23)bp 34.9 (316)bp 32.5 35.2 (272)bp
EBITDA margin (%) 16.2 15.3 90bp 20.6 (441)bp 16.7 20.4 (371)bp
EBIT margin (%) 13.5 11.5 201bp 17.8 (424)bp 13.7 17.5 (381)bp
PAT margin (%) 10.0 10.4 (42)bp 17.0 (697)bp 10.3 15.1 (484)bp
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 3QFY2012 – Actual vs. Angel estimates
(` cr) Actual Estimate Var. (%)
Net revenue 1445 1511 (4.4)
EBITDA margin (%) 16.2 17.4 (119)bp
PAT* 144 184 (21.5)
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Excludes share of profits from Mahindra Satyam
Muted revenue growth
For 3QFY2012, Tech Mahindra reported USD revenue of US$288.7mn, down
2.5% qoq due to a 0.5% qoq decline in volume and ~2.0% qoq negative
cross-currency impact. This was because of a 7.8% qoq decline in USD revenue
from BT account to US$101mn (£64mn). USD revenue from non-BT business grew
merely by 0.6% qoq to US$188mn. In INR terms, revenue came in at `1,445cr, up
8.4% qoq, largely aided by qoq INR depreciation. Going ahead, the company
expects business from non-BT accounts to be its key growth driver.
February 9, 2012 2
Tech Mahindra | 3QFY2012 Result Update
Exhibit 3: Trend in revenue growth for non-BT accounts
200 12
190
180 9.1 187 188
8
170 174 7.3
(US $mn)
160
(%)
164 5.8
150
151 4
140
130
0.7 0.6
120 0
3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12
Non BT qoq growth
Source: Company, Angel Research
Management indicated that BT business may continue to decline in the next few
quarters, as BT is retendering its contracts. This may lead to Tech Mahindra losing
its share in BT contracts, as clearly the client is looking out for a lower pricing
opportunity as part of its cost-cutting drive. So, even if the company manages to
hold or gain its share, it is expected to be operating margin dilutive.
Exhibit 4: Revenue trend for BT account
120 3.0 4
118 2
1.5
115 116 0
114
(US $mn)
(2)
(%)
110 (3.5)
110 (4)
(5.5) (6)
105
(7.8) (8)
100 101 (10)
3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12
BT qoq growth
Source: Company, Angel Research
The company’s revenue from telecom service providers (TSPs) (~78.6% to revenue)
and telecom equipment manufacturers (TEMs) (~7.3% to revenue) grew by 4.5%
and 31.5% qoq to `1,135cr and `106cr, respectively.
The company’s top 2-5 clients drove its growth in 3QFY2012, by registering
whopping 0.6% qoq USD revenue growth. Revenue from the company’s top 6-10
clients declined by 2.5% qoq during the quarter.
February 9, 2012 3
Tech Mahindra | 3QFY2012 Result Update
Exhibit 5: Trend in revenue growth of top clients (qoq)
15
13.6
9.3
10
7.3
5.3
5 3.6 4.1 4.1
3.0
1.5
(%)
1.7
0.6
0
(5) (2.5)
(3.5)
(5.5)
(10) (7.8)
3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12
BT Next 4 accounts Next 5 accounts
Source: Company, Angel Research
Utilization level improves
During the quarter, the company’s utilization level increased by 100bp qoq to 73%
from 72% in 2QFY2012 as the hiring done by the company from 4QFY2011 to
2QFY2012 turned billable in 3QFY2012. The company’s net technical employee
base again showed reduction by 1,447 employees to 25,218. Again in this
quarter, maximum addition was done in the BPO employee base of 544, taking its
total employee base to 16,419.
Exhibit 6: Trend in utilization rate
3,200 2,793 78
2,522
76
2,400 2,071
1,609 1,638 76
1,600
Net addition no.
544 74
(%)
800 74
224 73
0 72
0 72
71
(800)
3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12
(1,255) 70
(1,600) (1,447)
(2,400) 68
S/w professionals BPO professionals Utilisation (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Margin improves
In 3QFY2012, Tech Mahindra’s EBITDA and EBIT margin increased by 90bp and
201bp qoq 16.2% and 13.5%, respectively, because of depreciating INR, which
absorbed the negative impact of onsite wage hike given.
February 9, 2012 4
Tech Mahindra | 3QFY2012 Result Update
Exhibit 7: Margin trend
40 36.7
34.9
33.9
35 32.0 31.8
30
25
(%)
20.6 20.5
18.7
20
15.3 16.2
15 17.8 17.5
16.1 13.5
11.5
10
3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12
Gross profit margin EBITDA margin EBIT margin
Source: Company, Angel Research
Client pyramid
Tech Mahindra’s client pyramid witnessed slight improvement with one of
its clients being added to the US$20mn-25mn bracket from lower revenue bracket.
Also, US$1mn-2mn revenue bracket witnessed addition of three new clients. The
active client base of the company increased to 130 in 3QFY2012 from 128 in
2QFY2012.
Exhibit 8: Client metrics
Particulars 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12
US$1mn–2mn 14 18 20 19 22
US$2mn–5mn 19 16 13 14 13
US$5mn–10mn 5 6 8 13 13
US$10mn–15mn 7 7 9 6 6
US$15mn–20mn 2 1 1 2 2
US$20mn–25mn 1 3 2 2 3
US$25mn–50mn 2 1 1 2 2
US$50mn+ 3 3 3 2 2
Active clients 126 128 128 128 130
Source: Company, Angel Research
Outlook and valuation
Management is witnessing traces of demand revival from TSPs and foresees them
to return to spending on 4G technology and cloud only in FY2012. We expect the
non-BT business to post a CQGR of 2.4% over 3QFY2012-4QFY2013, with BT’s
quarterly revenue expected to be flat from here. However, there is a caveat that
BT’s revenue may see a downside if the company loses out its market share in the
retendering process initiated by BT. In fact, even if the company manages to hold
the share or increase it, it can be margin dilutive as the client has initiated this
retendering process as part of its cost-cutting drive with lower pricing expectation.
Thus, we expect a 7.6% CAGR in USD revenue over FY2011-13E.
February 9, 2012 5
Tech Mahindra | 3QFY2012 Result Update
PAT is expected to be supported by 1) the deep in-the-money hedges of £305mn
and US$540mn with participation rates at 83 INR/GBP and 50 INR/USD, boosting
forex gains for the company; and 2) declining interest expense due to quick
repayments possible from Mahindra Satyam’s strong earnings. Thus, the
company’s core EPS is expected to have a negative CAGR over FY2011-13E. The
only potential upside is due to the company’s stake in Mahindra Satyam, which is
improving its overall profitability. Since, the company’s core earnings are subdued
and the huge contribution (~33%) to its consolidated earnings is due to Mahindra
Satyam’s profitability, we continue to value the company at 55% discount to
Infosys’ target PE i.e., at 8x the company’s consolidated EPS of `86.4 and maintain
our Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `693.
Exhibit 9: Key assumptions
FY2012E FY2013E
Revenue growth (US$) 9.5 5.7
USD-INR rate (realized) 47.4 50.0
Revenue growth (`) 7.4 11.5
EBITDA margin (%) 16.9 17.1
Tax rate (%) 20.9 23.0
EPS growth (%) 70.9 2.6
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 10: One-year forward PE (x)
2,200
1,900
1,600
1,300
(`)
1,000
700
400
100
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12
Price 23 18 13 8 4
Source: Company, Angel Research. Note: P/E includes share of profits from Mahindra Satyam
2QFY2011 onwards.
February 9, 2012 6
Tech Mahindra | 3QFY2012 Result Update
Exhibit 11: Recommendation summary
Company Reco CMP Tgt Price Upside Target FY2013 FY2013E FY2011-13E FY2013E FY2013E
(`) (`) (%) P/E (x) EBITDA (%) P/E (x) EPS CAGR (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%)
HCL Tech Accumulate 465 520 11.9 13.0 17.5 11.6 22.1 20.9 23.1
Hexaware Neutral 106 - - 11.0 19.0 11.4 79.4 25.4 22.0
Infosys Accumulate 2,807 3,047 8.5 18.0 32.0 16.6 18.9 25.8 23.8
Infotech Enterprises Neutral 138 - - 8.5 16.0 8.8 11.9 16.1 13.0
KPIT Cummins Neutral 166 - - 10.0 15.4 10.2 19.9 19.5 16.9
Mahindra Satyam Buy 72 87 20.2 11.0 16.0 9.0 38.4 12.6 14.4
MindTree Accumulate 455 502 10.3 10.0 14.7 9.1 42.1 20.3 17.4
Mphasis Neutral 373 - - 11.5 16.6 10.1 (3.1) 14.0 14.2
NIIT^ Buy 45 55 22.8 6.9 16.3 5.6 19.3 11.0 15.6
Persistent Neutral 316 - - 9.0 23.0 9.0 0.1 19.4 14.3
TCS Neutral 1,227 - - 19.5 29.9 19.0 20.6 32.1 33.3
Tech Mahindra* Accumulate 659 693 5.2 8.0 17.1 7.6 32.3 15.0 21.1
Wipro Neutral 445 - - 15.3 19.7 16.0 13.1 15.3 20.5
Source: Company, Angel Research. Note: ^Valued on SOTP basis,* EPS CAGR includes earnings from Mahindra Satyam
February 9, 2012 7
Tech Mahindra | 3QFY2012 Result Update
Profit and loss statement (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
Net sales 4,465 4,625 5,140 5,520 6,153
Cost of revenues 2,638 2,871 3,403 3,702 4,094
Gross profit 1,827 1,754 1,737 1,818 2,059
% of net sales 40.9 37.9 33.8 32.9 33.5
SG&A expenses 612 622 734 887 1,009
% of net sales 13.7 13.4 14.3 16.1 16.4
EBITDA 1,215 1,133 1,003 931 1,050
% of net sales 27.2 24.5 19.5 16.9 17.1
Depreciation and amortization 110 134 144 165 175
% of net sales 2.5 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.8
EBIT 1,106 999 860 766 875
% of net sales 24.8 21.6 16.7 13.9 14.2
Interest expense 3 218 100 115 54
Other income,
(38) 75 117 164 111
net of forex gain/(loss)
Profit before tax 1,065 856 877 814 932
Provision for tax 118 144 132 172 214
% of PBT 11.1 16.8 15.0 21.1 23.0
Recurring PAT 947 712 746 642 718
Share from associates 44 423 422
Exceptional item 67 (9) (143) - -
Minority interest - 3 4 5 -
Profit after minority interest 1,014 700 643 1,061 1,140
Reported PAT 947 709 786 1,061 1,140
Fully diluted EPS (`) 77.4 53.6 49.3 84.2 86.4
Source: Company, Angel Research
February 9, 2012 8
Tech Mahindra | 3QFY2012 Result Update
Balance sheet (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
Equity capital 122 122 126 126 126
Preference capital - - - - -
Share premium 233 237 233 233 233
Profit and loss 1,401 1,783 2,365 3,351 4,411
Other reserves 187 744 627 627 627
Net worth 1,943 2,887 3,351 4,338 5,397
Secured loans - 750 - - -
Unsecured loans - 1,385 1,223 907 407
Total debt - 2,135 1,223 907 407
Deferred revenue 584 - -
Minority interest 11 14 16 16 16
Total capital employed 1,954 5,035 5,174 5,260 5,823
Gross block 908 1,131 1,273 1,433 1,588
Accumulated depreciation (410) (527) (670) (836) (1,011)
Net block 498 604 602 597 577
Capital WIP 154 321 125 140 160
Total fixed assets 652 925 727 737 737
Investments 435 3,015 2,908 2,872 2,870
Deferred tax asset, net 20 28 64 73 75
Inventories 1 1 - - -
Sundry debtors 902 1,042 1,247 1,225 1,357
Cash and cash equivalents 538 219 267 395 696
Loans and advances 295 673 832 883 1,015
Sundry creditors (469) (461) (510) (528) (573)
Other liabilities (205) (129) (53) (65) (15)
Provision (215) (277) (308) (331) (338)
Working capital 848 1,068 1,474 1,579 2,141
Total capital deployed 1,954 5,035 5,174 5,260 5,823
Source: Company, Angel Research
February 9, 2012 9
Tech Mahindra | 3QFY2012 Result Update
Cash flow statement (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
Pre tax profit from operations 1,170 780 760 651 821
Depreciation 110 134 144 165 175
Expenses (deferred)/written off/others - (9) (98) 425 422
Pre tax cash from operations 1,280 906 805 1,241 1,418
Other income/prior period ad (38) 73 114 159 111
Net cash from operations 1,242 978 919 1,400 1,530
Tax (118) (144) (132) (172) (214)
Cash profits 1,124 834 788 1,228 1,315
(Inc)/dec in
Sundry Debtors 194 (140) (205) 22 (132)
Inventories - - 1 - -
Loans and advances 65 (377) (160) (51) (132)
Sundry creditors (43) (8) 49 18 45
Others 5 (14) (45) 35 (39)
Net trade working capital 222 (539) (358) 24 (258)
Cashflow from operating activities 1,346 295 429 1,252 1,057
(Inc)/dec in fixed assets (162) (407) 54 (175) (176)
(Inc)/dec in investments (371) (2,580) 107 36 2
(Inc)/dec in deferred tax asset, net (14) (8) (36) (11) (3)
Cashflow from investing activities (547) (2,995) 125 (149) (177)
Inc/(dec) in debt (30) 2,135 (912) (316) (500)
Inc/(dec) in deferred revenue 584 (584) -
Inc/(dec) in equity/premium 3 5 (0) - -
Inc/(dec) in minority interest 0 3 2 - -
Addition to reserves on amalgamation (274) 288 (117) - -
Dividends (57) (50) (61) (74) (80)
Cashflow from financing activities (358) 2,381 (504) (974) (580)
Cash generated/(utilized) 441 (320) 49 129 300
Cash at start of the year 98 538 219 267 395
Cash at end of the year 538 219 267 395 696
Source: Company, Angel Research
February 9, 2012 10
Tech Mahindra | 3QFY2012 Result Update
Key Ratios (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
Y/E March FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
Valuation ratio(x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 8.5 12.3 13.4 7.8 7.6
P/CEPS 7.6 10.3 10.9 7.1 6.6
P/BVPS 4.4 3.0 2.6 2.0 1.6
Dividend yield (%) 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
EV/Sales 1.8 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.3
EV/EBITDA 6.6 9.3 9.5 9.8 7.9
EV/Total assets 12.4 11.4 13.1 12.4 11.3
Per share data(`)
EPS (Fully diluted) 77.4 53.6 49.3 84.2 86.4
Cash EPS 86.2 64.0 60.3 93.0 99.7
Dividend 3.7 3.3 4.0 4.0 4.0
Book value 149.0 221.4 257.0 328.9 409.2
Dupont analysis
Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.2
Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1
EBIT margin (EBIT/Sales) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Asset turnover ratio (Sales/Assets) 6.8 5.0 7.1 7.5 8.3
Leverage ratio (Assets/Equity) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1
Operating ROE (%) 48.7 24.7 22.3 24.5 21.1
Return ratios (%)
RoCE (pre-tax) 56.6 19.8 16.6 14.6 15.0
Angel RoIC 87.6 22.2 18.0 16.2 17.6
RoE 48.7 24.6 23.5 24.5 21.1
Turnover ratios(x)
Asset turnover (fixed assets) 6.8 5.0 7.1 7.5 8.3
Receivables days 82 77 81 81 81
Payable days 56 49 43 42 41
Source: Company, Angel Research
February 9, 2012 11
Tech Mahindra | 3QFY2012 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 3935 7800 E-mail: research@angelbroking.com Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement Tech Mahindra
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
February 9, 2012 12