3QFY2012 Result Update | Cement
February 8, 2012
JK Lakshmi Cement BUY
CMP `65
Performance Highlights Target Price `79
Y/E March (` cr) 3QFY2012 2QFY2012 % chg qoq 3QFY2011 % chg yoy Investment Period 12 months
Net revenue 440 354 24.3 315 39.5
Operating profit 94 41 128.7 25 279.0 Stock Info
OPM (%) 21.4 11.6 977bp 7.9 1,352bp Sector Cement
Net profit 49 6 658.7 5 970.4 Market Cap (` cr) 792
Source: Company, Angel Research Beta 1.1
52 Week High / Low 67/36
JK Lakshmi Cement (JKLC) reported an impressive performance for 3QFY2012.
Avg. Daily Volume 46,260
The company’s bottom line came in at `49cr as against `4.6cr in 3QFY2011.
Face Value (`) 5
Bottom-line growth was driven by strong 26.3% growth in realization, reduction in
BSE Sensex 17,707
raw-material and power and fuel costs on per tonne basis and 59.2% growth in
Nifty 5,368
other income to `14.8cr. We recommend a Buy on the stock.
Reuters Code JKLC.BO
OPM at 21.4%, up 1,352bp yoy: During 3QFY2012, JKLC registered Bloomberg Code JKLC@IN
top-line growth of 39.5% yoy to `440cr on account of healthy 12.8% yoy growth in
dispatches to 1.22mn tonnes and strong realization growth of 26.3% yoy to
`3,359/tonne. Despite higher freight costs and other expenses on per tonne basis, the Shareholding Pattern (%)
company’s operating margin increased by 1,352bp yoy to 21.4%, aided by strong Promoters 44.2
realization growth and 8% yoy savings in power and fuel cost on per tonne basis. MF / Banks / Indian Fls 15.7
JKLC’s operating profit rose by 279.0% yoy during the quarter to `94cr. Even after a FII / NRIs / OCBs 7.2
75.9% yoy increase in interest and higher tax expense (`12cr as against negative tax of Indian Public / Others 32.8
`4cr in 3QFY2011), the bottom line came in at `49cr, aided by strong operating
performance as well as a significant increase in other income. Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Outlook and valuation: Going forward, we expect JKLC to post a healthy 19% Sensex 0.8 (0.4) 90.4
CAGR in its top line over FY2011-13E, aided by a 12.4% CAGR in dispatches over JKLC 40.8 42.2 232.9
the period. At the CMP, the stock is trading at cheap valuations in terms of
replacement cost (EV/tonne of US$29 on FY2013E capacity), even after considering
its presence in unfavorable locations. We value the stock at EV/tonne of US$35 on
FY2013E capacity to arrive at a target price of `79. Hence, we recommend a Buy
rating on the stock.
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
Net sales 1,491 1,319 1,629 1,868
% chg 21.7 (11.5) 23.5 14.7
Net profit 241 59 123 149
% chg 35.0 (75.5) 107.7 21.0
FDEPS (`) 19.7 4.8 10.0 0.0
OPM (%) 28.5 13.9 18.5 20.4
P/E (x) 3.4 19.7 5.7 4.7
P/BV (x) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 V Srinivasan
RoE (%) 25.3 3.9 11.7 13.3 022-39357800 Ext. 6831
RoCE (%) 19.1 4.7 9.1 10.5 v.srinivasan@angelbroking.com
EV/Sales (x) 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.5
Sourabh Taparia
EV/Tonne (US$) 34 44 35 29
022-39357800 Ext. 6872
EV/EBITDA (x) 2.2 6.7 3.9 2.7
sourabh.taparia@angelbroking.com
Source: Company, Angel Research
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
JK Lakshmi Cement | 3QFY2012 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 3QFY2012 performance
Y/E March (` cr) 3QFY2012 2QFY2012 % Chg 3QFY2011 % Chg 9MFY2012 9MFY2011 % Chg
Net operating income 440 354 24.3 315 39.5 1,191 905 31.6
Net raw-material costs 66 67 (1.5) 48 37.9 186 128 45.7
(% of sales) 15.1 19.0 15.3 15.6 14.1
Power & fuel 108 97 11.4 105 3.3 314 288 8.8
(% of sales) 24.6 27.4 33.3 26.3 31.9
Staff costs 24 22 6.9 17 38.9 68 56 21.1
(% of sales) 5.3 6.2 5.4 5.7 6.2
Freight & forwarding 83 76 8.3 68 22.3 238 187 27.3
(% of sales) 18.8 21.6 21.4 20.0 20.7
Other expenses 65 50 30.0 53 22.7 170 136 24.9
(% of sales) 14.8 14.1 16.8 14.3 15.1
Total Expenditure 346 313 10.5 291 19.1 977 796 22.7
Operating Profit 94 41 128.7 25 279.0 215 109 97.0
OPM 21.4 11.6 977 7.9 1,352 18.0 12.0 597
Interest 22 20 9.9 13 75.9 64 36 79.2
Depreciation 26 26 0.0 21 20.4 76 62 23.3
Other income 15 12 19 9 59 28 17 64.4
PBT (incl. Extr. Items) 61 8 679.8 0 103 29 257.9
Provision for taxation 12 1 (4) 24 2 1,509
(% of PBT) 19.5 17.2 23.5 5.2
Reported PAT 49.2 6.5 658.7 4.6 970.4 78 27 188.8
PATM 11.2 1.8 1.5 6.6 3.0
EPS (`) 4.0 0.5 0.4 6.4 2.2
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: Financial performance
(` cr) (%)
500 440 23.0
417 21.0
397
400 354 19.0
324 315
17.0
300 266
15.0
13.0
200
11.0
100 9.0
32 49
17 6 5 23 6 7.0
0 5.0
1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12
Net Operating Income Net Profit OPM (RHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
February 8, 2012 2
JK Lakshmi Cement | 3QFY2012 Result Update
Exhibit 3: 3QFY2012 – Actual vs. Angel estimates
(` cr) Actual Estimates Variation (%)
Net Sales 440 380 15.8
Operating Profit 94 48 95.2
OPM (%) 21.4 12.7 870bp
Net Profit 49 9 447.1
Source: Company, Angel Research
Performance highlights
Top line up 39.5% yoy, driven by higher realization and dispatches
During 3QFY2012, JKLC registered 39.5% yoy growth in its top line to `440cr on
account of a 26.3% yoy improvement in realization to `3,359/tonne and a 12.8%
yoy increase in dispatches to 1.22mn tonnes. On the operating front, the
company’s OPM improved strongly by 1,352bp yoy to 21.4% due to strong
realization growth and significant savings in power and fuel cost.
Per tonne analysis
In 3QFY2012, JKLC’s power and fuel costs per tonne fell by 8.5% yoy to `886 on
account of reduction in power consumption per tonne of cement to 77KW from
80KW a year ago and use of cheaper biomass as fuel. Freight cost per tonne grew
by 8.4% yoy to `677 due to higher costs of petroleum products, increased railway
freight charges and reduced lead distance. Other costs increased by 8.8% yoy to
`531 per tonne. Operating profit per tonne stood at `770 during the quarter, up
236.0% yoy.
Exhibit 4: Per tonne analysis
(`) 3QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY11 chg (%) yoy chg (%) qoq
Realization/tonne 3,359 2,920 2,660 26.3 15.0
Raw-material cost/tonne 543 598 444 22.2 (9.2)
Power and fuel cost/tonne 886 862 968 (8.5) 2.7
Freight costs/tonne 677 678 624 8.4 (0.2)
Other costs/tonne 531 443 488 8.8 19.8
Operating profit/tonne 770 365 229 236.0 110.8
Source: Company, Angel Research
February 8, 2012 3
JK Lakshmi Cement | 3QFY2012 Result Update
Conference call highlights
JKLC has planned a total capex of `1,450cr to be spent over the next three
years, which would be incurred towards setting up a 0.5mtpa split grinding
unit at Jhajjar in Haryana, 2.7mtpa greenfield plant at Durg in Chhattisgarh
with split grinding units in Orissa and Jharkhand and kiln capacity
augmentation. The planned cost for Jhajjar plant and kiln capacity
augmentation is ~`100cr each, while for Durg plant it is `1,250cr. The
company expects Jhajjar and Durg plants to come on stream by March 2012
and October 2013, respectively, and the company’s total capacity then would
be raised to 8mtpa.
During 3QFY2012, the company’s region-wise sales mix was 35% in North
India, 30% in Gujarat, 30% in Rajasthan and balance in Maharashtra.
The company is also planning to revive JK Cement Udaipur (a group company
currently under BIFR, having ~1.4mtpa cement plant) at and expects the
revival to be completed by April 2014.
JKLC has announced an equity share buyback up to an amount of `97.5cr at
a maximum price of `70 per equity share by conducting open market
purchases in Stock Exchanges. Management expects the buyback process to
take place in the next few months.
Cement demand scenario in 3QFY2012
During the quarter, all-India cement demand grew strongly by 13.2% yoy, taking
9MFY2012 growth to 5.4% yoy. During the quarter, cement demand growth in the
Western region has been quite impressive at 25% yoy and management expects
the region to witness double-digit growth going forward. Even Northern region’s
cement demand has been quite strong at 16.1% yoy due to the pre-election effect.
Among all states in the Northern and Western region in 3QFY2012, Gujarat
posted the highest demand growth of 31.3% yoy, followed by Maharashtra (20.3%
yoy), Rajasthan (16.6% yoy) and Haryana (15.4% yoy).
Exhibit 5: All-India and region-wise demand scenario Exhibit 6: North and West India state-wise demand scenario
(%) (%)
30.0 35.0 31.3
25.0
25.0 30.0
25.0 20.3
20.0 16.7 19.7
16.1 15.1 20.0 16.6
15.0 13.2 13.9 13.3 15.4 14.8 14.7
11.5 15.0 13.4 12.4
10.2 8.4
10.0 7.6 10.0
5.4 4.8
5.0 3.2 5.0
(6.5) (3.9)
(4.3) 0.0
0.0
Maharashtra
Rajasthan
Punjab
Himachal
Haryana
Uttarakhand
Gujarat
(5.0)
Pradesh
All India Northern Eastern Southern Western Central
(5.0) region region region region region (10.0)
(10.0) (15.0)
9MFY2012 3QFY2012 9MFY2012 3QFY2012
Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research
February 8, 2012 4
JK Lakshmi Cement | 3QFY2012 Result Update
Investment arguments
Rising captive power usage to improve profitability: JKLC has a power purchase
tie-up with VS Lignite for 21MW power for the next 20 years at `3.2/unit (closer to
its captive power cost) in addition to its current total captive power capacity of
66MW, which has been expanded recently by 30MW. Thus, effectively the
company has access to 87MW of cheaper power, which is more than sufficient for
its current capacity.
Strong balance sheet: As of September 2011, JKLC's debt stood at `997cr, of
which `94cr was on account of deferred sales tax (interest free). The company's
cash and investments stand at `550cr. Thus, JKLC's balance sheet is well placed,
with net debt/equity around 0.33x, which will help the company in its plan to raise
debt of `990cr, out of the total capex outlay of `1,450cr.
Unfavorable plant locations to affect profitability: JKLC has 79% of its total
capacities in Rajasthan, which is state-wise India's second biggest capacity cluster,
with 44.8mtpa of total capacity in FY2011. Capacities in Rajasthan face a huge
demand-supply gap even after catering to surplus demand of nearby supply-deficit
states (Haryana, Punjab, NCR, Chandigarh and UP), apart from meeting its own
demand.
Outlook and valuation
Going forward, we expect JKLC to post a healthy 19% CAGR in its top line over
FY2011-13E, aided by a 12.4% CAGR in dispatches over the period. At the CMP,
the stock is trading at cheap valuations in terms of replacement cost (EV/tonne of
US$29 on FY2013E capacity), even after considering its presence in unfavorable
locations. We value the stock at EV/tonne of US$35 on FY2013E capacity to arrive at
a target price of `79. Hence, we recommend a Buy rating on the stock.
February 8, 2012 5
JK Lakshmi Cement | 3QFY2012 Result Update
Exhibit 7: Change in estimates
Parameter FY2012E FY2013E
(` cr) Earlier Revised Var. (%) Earlier Revised Var. (%)
Net Sales 1,483 1,629 9.8 1,751 1,868 6.7
Operating Exp 1,238 1,327 7.2 1,450 1,488 2.6
Operating Profit 245 301 22.8 301 380 26.4
Depreciation 99 99 0.0 104 106 2.0
Interest 35 36 3.7 38 32 (15.5)
PBT 96 154 59.5 127 198 56.4
Tax 24 31 27.8 32 50 56.7
PAT 72 123 70.0 95 149 56.3
Source: Angel Research
Exhibit 8: Key assumptions
Earlier estimates Revised estimates
FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E
Installed capacity (mtpa) 4.7 5.3 5.3 5.3
Growth (%) - 11.6 11.6 -
Utilization (%) 91 92 90 99
Raw-material costs/tonne(`) 706 701 648 628
Power cost/tonne(`) 994 1,026 982 972
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 9: Recommendation summary
Company Reco. CMP Tgt. Price Upside FY2013E FY2013E FY2011-13E FY2013E FY2013E
(`) (`) (%) P/BV (x) P/E (x) EPS CAGR (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%)
ACC* Neutral 1,383 - - 3.3 20.5 6.4 20.9 16.7
Ambuja Cements* Neutral 177 - - 3.0 19.3 6.9 20.4 16.5
India Cements Neutral 96 - - 0.8 9.8 174.0 7.4 8.5
JKLC Buy 65 79 22.0 0.6 4.7 104.4 10.5 13.3
Madras Cements Neutral 140 - - 1.4 8.8 34.0 13.1 17.0
Shree Cement Neutral 2,425 - - 3.3 20.1 27.6 15.8 17.7
UltraTech Neutral 1,385 - - 2.7 16.7 27.1 17.5 17.1
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year ending
February 8, 2012 6
JK Lakshmi Cement | 3QFY2012 Result Update
Exhibit 10: One-year forward EV/Tonne band
25,000 EV/tonne $30 $50 $70 $90
20,000
EV (` mn)
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Apr-01
Apr-02
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Oct-01
Oct-02
Oct-03
Oct-04
Oct-05
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Valuation in US$ per tonne
February 8, 2012 7
JK Lakshmi Cement | 3QFY2012 Result Update
Profit and loss statement
Y/E March (` cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
Total operating income 1,108 1,225 1,491 1,319 1,629 1,868
% chg 31.3 10.6 21.7 (11.5) 23.5 14.7
Total expenditure 756 914 1,066 1,136 1,327 1,488
Net raw material 136 182 234 204 277 298
Other mfg. costs 246 306 290 392 419 465
Personnel 56 69 85 81 89 98
Other 319 356 457 459 543 626
EBITDA 351 311 425 183 301 380
% chg 37.2 (11.6) 36.7 (56.9) 64.4 26.2
(% of net sales) 31.7 25.4 28.5 13.9 18.5 20.4
Depreciation & amortization 59 69 80 85 99 106
EBIT 293 241 345 99 202 274
% chg 38.3 (17.5) 42.7 (71.4) 105.3 35.6
(% of net sales) 26.4 19.7 23.1 7.5 12.4 14.7
Interest & other charges 54 50 55 60 85 108
Other income 33 34 35 21 36 32
(% of PBT) 13.1 14.9 10.5 26.8 23.6 16.1
Recurring PBT 272 226 324 60 154 198
% chg 51.9 (16.9) 43.7 (81.6) 156.8 29.0
Extraordinary expense/(Inc.) 21 (1) (6) (19) - -
PBT (reported) 251 227 331 79 154 198
Tax 27 48 90 20 31 50
(% of PBT) 10.7 21.2 27.1 25.0 20.0 25.0
PAT (reported) 224 179 241 59 123 149
ADJ. PAT 245 178 235 40 123 149
% chg 37.4 (27.4) 32.1 (82.9) 206.1 21.0
(% of net sales) 22.1 14.5 15.7 3.0 7.5 8.0
Basic EPS (`) 20.0 14.5 19.2 3.3 11.3 13.7
Fully diluted EPS (`) 20.0 14.5 19.2 3.3 11.3 13.7
% chg 28.2 (27.4) 32.1 (82.9) 245.4 21.0
February 8, 2012 8
JK Lakshmi Cement | 3QFY2012 Result Update
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital 61 61 61 61 54 54
Preference Capital - - - - - -
Reserves& Surplus 581 770 960 985 1,000 1,130
Shareholders’ Funds 642 831 1,021 1,046 1,054 1,184
Total Loans 708 703 922 1,017 1,117 1,667
Deferred Tax Liability (12) 35 92 107 107 107
Total Liabilities 1,338 1,569 2,035 2,171 2,278 2,959
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block 1,474 1,760 1,904 2,319 2,469 2,519
Less: Acc. Depreciation 663 747 841 938 1,036 1,142
Net Block 811 1,013 1,063 1,381 1,432 1,377
Capital Work-in-Progress 101 97 182 74 424 1,024
Goodwill - - - - - -
Investments 13 89 481 528 258 258
Current Assets 590 632 666 554 574 790
Cash 348 327 220 91 75 173
Loans & Advances 162 216 341 313 329 427
Other 81 89 104 150 170 189
Current liabilities 177 262 357 367 410 489
Net Current Assets 413 370 309 188 164 301
Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -
Total Assets 1,338 1,569 2,035 2,171 2,278 2,959
February 8, 2012 9
JK Lakshmi Cement | 3QFY2012 Result Update
Cash flow statement
Y/E March (` cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
Profit before tax 251 227 331 79 154 198
Depreciation 59 69 80 85 99 106
Change in working Capital 9 22 (45) (8) 7 (38)
Less: Other income 33 34 35 21 36 32
Direct taxes paid 27 48 90 20 31 50
Cash flow from operations 258 236 241 115 193 184
(Inc)/ Dec in fixed Assets (158) (282) (228) (307) (500) (650)
(Inc)/ Dec in investments 45 (76) (392) (47) 270 -
Other income 33 34 35 21 36 32
Cash flow from investing (80) (324) (585) (334) (194) (618)
Issue of equity - - - - (97) -
Inc./(Dec.) in loans (22) (5) 219 96 100 550
Dividend paid (Incl. Tax) 18 29 36 18 18 18
others (63) (101) (54) (12) - -
Cash flow from financing 23 67 238 90 (15) 532
Inc./(Dec.) in cash 201 (21) (106) (129) (16) 99
Opening cash balances 147 348 327 220 91 75
Closing cash balances 348 327 220 91 75 173
February 8, 2012 10
JK Lakshmi Cement | 3QFY2012 Result Update
Key ratios
Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
Valuation ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 3.2 4.5 3.4 19.7 5.7 4.7
P/CEPS 2.8 3.2 2.5 5.5 3.2 2.8
P/BV 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6
Dividend yield (%) 2.3 3.6 4.5 2.2 2.5 2.5
EV/Sales 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.5
EV/EBITDA 2.9 3.3 2.2 6.7 3.9 2.7
EV / Total Assets 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3
Per share data (`)
EPS (Basic) 20.0 14.5 19.2 3.3 11.3 13.7
EPS (fully diluted) 20.0 14.5 19.2 3.3 11.3 13.7
Cash EPS 23.1 20.2 26.2 11.7 20.4 23.5
DPS 1.5 2.3 2.9 1.5 1.6 1.6
Book Value 51.9 64.1 80.9 84.3 95.8 107.8
DuPont analysis (%)
EBIT margin 26.4 19.7 23.1 7.5 12.4 14.7
Tax retention ratio 89.3 78.8 72.9 75.0 80.0 75.0
Asset turnover (x) 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.8
ROIC (Post-tax) 27.9 17.9 20.2 5.1 9.3 9.2
Cost of debt (Post Tax) 6.7 5.5 4.9 4.6 6.4 5.8
Leverage (x) 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2
Operating ROE 56.8 29.6 33.6 5.6 12.2 13.4
Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax) 24.0 16.6 19.1 4.7 9.1 10.5
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 34.5 25.0 31.2 7.5 13.5 18.1
ROE 46.5 24.1 25.3 3.9 11.7 13.3
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset turnover (Gross Block) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7
Inventory / Sales (days) 19 19 17 27 28 27
Receivables (days) 6 6 6 8 7 8
Payables (days) 71 88 106 116 107 110
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 23 16 16 26 21 21
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0
Net debt to EBITDA 1.0 0.9 0.5 2.2 2.6 3.3
Interest coverage (EBIT/ Int.) 5.4 4.9 6.3 1.6 2.4 2.5
February 8, 2012 11
JK Lakshmi Cement | 3QFY2012 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: research@angelbroking.com Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement JK Lakshmi Cement
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
February 8, 2012 12