Stockpile Transformation Study by yy7n5Fy

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									            Office of the Assistant to the Secretary of Defense
            Nuclear and Chemical and Biological Defense Programs




           Stockpile Planning for the Future

                              Mr. Steve Henry
             Deputy Assistant to the Secretary of Defense
                               for Nuclear Matters



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                                                                                                                Stockpile Planning:
                                                                                                            The Historical Approach
     HANFORD




                                                                                                                                        •   Largely target based
                        IDAHO


                                                                                  PORTSMOUTH       MOUND
                                                                                                   PLANT
                                                                                                                                        •   Heavy reliance on a large
LAWRENCE
LIVERMORE
NATIONAL
LABORATORY
              SANDIA
                             NEVADA
                             TEST
                             SITE                 ROCKY
                                                  FLATS             KANSAS CITY
                                                                                                                                            stockpile to manage geo-
                                                                    PLANT              FERNALD
                                                                                                                                            political and technical risk
              NATIONAL
              LABORATORY             LOS ALAMOS
                                     NATIONAL
                                     LABORATORY                                       Y-12 PLANT

                                       SANDIA
                                       NATIONAL           PANTEX
                                       LABORATORY         PL AN T                                        SAVANNAH
                                                                                                         RIVER
                                                                                                         SITE                           •   Infrastructure with little
        KEY


              NUCLEAR SITE
                                                                                                             MANAGEMENT
                                                                                                             TRANSFERRED TO
                                                                                                             ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT       capability beyond
               STOCKPILE STEWARDSHIP ACTIVITIES
               AND FORMER TEST SITE



               NONNUCLEAR SITE
                                                                                              PINELLAS
                                                                                              PLANT
                                                                                                                                            maintaining legacy weapons

                                                                                                                                                                 Legacy
                                                                                                                                                                stockpile


                Infrastructure
                     Cost
                    This approach continues the Cold War mentality of “strength
                       in numbers”, rather than a focus on overall capabilities
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                        Clear Objectives Exist for the Future
                                 Nuclear Weapons Stockpile
           “I am committed to achieving a credible deterrent with the lowest-
           possible number of nuclear weapons consistent with our national
           security needs…”
           - Pres. Bush May 2001


            •    Reliable, secure, and safe stockpile
            •    Responsive nuclear weapon infrastructure
            •    Sustain confidence for the long term
            •    Continue moratorium on nuclear testing


             The current approach for the stockpile and infrastructure does not
           adequately provide a path forward that meets the President’s guidance

                A New Approach is Needed to Meet DoD’s Future Stockpile Needs

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                             Objectives of a New Approach

           •   Initiate an immediate change from the current path of
               maintaining complex Cold War-era designs indefinitely
           •   Provide flexibility in the stockpile and ability to adapt to
               changing needs
           •   Sustain critical skills to design, certify, and produce nuclear
               warheads
           •   Free-up capacity and resources to enable transformation to a
               responsive, sustainable infrastructure


                Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW) Concepts May Provide a
                              Way to Achieve These Objectives


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                                                 The New Approach and
                                                Potential Implementation
      • If RRW proves feasible, we should have a way to
           enable a broad change in our nuclear enterprise
                • Enhance safety, security, and control on weapons
                • Demonstrate our ability to design and certify without nuclear
                       testing
                • Reduce the size and cost of the nuclear infrastructure
                • Potential to disassemble a larger number of retired weapons

                                 Current Plan        Stockpile          New Approach
           Stockpile




                        Wxx            Wxx Life                                         RRWs
                                       Extension                 Wxx
                                         (LEP)                         Life Extension

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                            Our New Approach Must Meet
                              National Security Objectives

           •   Supports defense policy goals of:
               •   Assuring allies and friends of US mutual security
                   commitments
               •   Dissuading potential aggressors from
                   planning/acquiring WMD
               •   Deterring potential aggressors from using WMD
               •   Defending against or defeating an aggressor
           •   Enables stockpile reductions
           •   Consistent with U.S. non-proliferation initiatives




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                          It Must Also Preserve Essential
                                      National Capability

           •   Sustains and exercises national capability for
               nuclear warhead design, engineering, and
               production skills
           •   Fosters scientific and technical capabilities to
               reduce technical surprise
           •   Enables an infrastructure that is responsive to
               changing national security needs
           •   Facilitates nuclear incident/emergency response
               capabilities




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                      Managing Risk: Today vs. 2030+

                      Today                              2030+




           • Legacy infrastructure with      • Responsive and efficient
             limited capability                infrastructure with enhanced
           • Heavy reliance on hedge           capability
             stockpile for risk management   • Reduced reliance on hedge
                                               stockpile for risk management


               We need a more balanced approach between stockpile
                     size and infrastructure responsiveness
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                                       Nuclear Weapons Stockpile
                                                 Transformation
  TODAY (2005)              2010                2020   LONG TERM VISION         2030+

   DoD Weapons
    Weapon systems designed
     and fielded during Cold
     War                                                Warheads
   Warheads (8-9 types)                                  All non-refurbished legacy
    All Cold War-era legacy                              warheads retired
     warheads
                                    TRANSFORM:           2-4 types of RRWs
    Plan to refurbish                                  Responsive Infrastructure
     indefinitely                    Target Based        Streamlined
                                                         Steady-state production of
   Infrastructure                         To              warheads for deployment
    Make components to
     refurbish warheads            Enterprise Based     Risk Management
                                                         Low reliance on non-
    Some components                   Deterrent          deployed back-up warheads
     expensive, difficult to
                                                         High reliance on responsive
     manufacture
                                                          infrastructure
   Risk Management
    High reliance on back-up
     warheads




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                                Nuclear Weapons Stockpile and
                                 Infrastructure Transformation
  TODAY (2005)              2010                              2020           LONG TERM VISION         2030+

   DoD Weapons
    Weapon systems designed       Develop and          Evaluate
     and fielded during Cold        field RRW             tradeoffs of an
     War                            warheads              all-RRW             Warheads
   Warheads (8-9 types)            Develop low-          stockpile versus     All non-refurbished legacy
    All Cold War-era legacy        cost warhead          mixed stockpile       warheads retired
     warheads                       back-up options      Re-scope             2-4 types of RRWs
    Plan to refurbish             Continue life         warhead life        Responsive Infrastructure
     indefinitely                   extension             extension needs      Streamlined
   Infrastructure                   refurbishments;      Develop              Steady-state production of
                                    evaluate              warheads for          warheads for deployment
    Make components to
                                    quantity needed       next-generation     Risk Management
     refurbish warheads
                                   Conduct               delivery systems     Low reliance on non-
    Some components
                                    stockpile            Complete              deployed back-up warheads
     expensive, difficult to        transformation        stockpile            High reliance on responsive
     manufacture                    studies               transformation        infrastructure
   Risk Management                                        plans
    High reliance on back-up
     warheads




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                                                              Summary
     • The current nuclear enterprise is unsustainable in the long term
     • If RRW proves feasible, we could have a way to enable a broad
           change in our nuclear enterprise
            •   Enhance safety, security, and control on weapons
            •   Demonstrate our confidence to manufacture and certify without
                nuclear testing
            •   Reduce the size and cost of the nuclear infrastructure
            •   Potential to disassemble a larger number of retired weapons
     • We need to work with the NNSA and Congress on stockpile and
           infrastructure transformation

                       RRW Can Enable Transformation of the
                           Stockpile and Infrastructure
2/9/2012                                                                        11

								
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