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					Mitt Romney for President: 2012 California Campaign Strategy

                        Drew Florio

                         POSC 437

                       April 28, 2009
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Overall Goals and Objectives

       The purpose of this paper is to formulate a plan for Mitt Romney to receive 52% of the

vote in the state of California during the 2012 Presidential election. By doing so, Mr. Romney

would be the first Republican candidate in twenty years to win the state. This objective will be

complex as the current political climate is not favoring a Republican upset victory. In the 2008,

presidential election Obama won the state by an extensive margin and it will be a challenge to

reverse this trend. However, the strategy discussed throughout this paper will provide an

opportunity for Mitt Romney to receive California’s fifty five electoral votes.

Message

       For any candidate to achieve success they must have a message that can be retained by

the voters. Romney in 2012, will be utilizing the rationale of bringing “reform to Washington”.

The word “reform” was chosen to recognize his political and business experience. The theme of

the campaign will be “right time, right change”. The inspiration of this theme came from both the

1980 and 2008 presidential campaigns. Both Reagan and Obama enthused voters by promising

superior leadership to their era’s political environments. Reagan did this with “Are you better off

than you were four years ago?” and Obama with “Hope and change” and “Yes, we can”i. These

messages were considered to conclude with “right time, right change”. Lastly, all successful

campaigns have to run on a set of issues that the candidate and voters care deeply about.

       The three issues Romney will run on relate to the rationale and theme of the campaign.

The issues will be taxation, education, and healthcare reform. These issues were selected as

Romney has had experience with them via his political and business career. In addition,

California voters have cited these issues as “extremely concerning” in a variety of exit pollingii.
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Mitt Romney Biography

       Mitt Romney was born on March 28, 1947, and grew up in the Detroit suburb of

Bloomfield. His father, George Romney was a candidate for President in 1968 and served as

Governor of Michigan from 1963 to 1969iii.

       Romney is a devout member of The Church of Jesus Christ Latter Day Saints. In 1967, he

left Stanford University to do mission work for the Church of France. After completing his

mission work he transferred to BYU. In 1969, he married his high school girlfriend Ann Davies.

In 1971, he completed his studies at BYU, graduating as Valedictorian with a Bachelor of Arts in

English. He then enrolled at Harvard, and in 1975, graduated cum laude and a Baker Scholar

from law schooliv .

       After school he began working for a Boston investment firm, Bain and Company. In

1984, he became CEO of a newly established branch, Bain Capital. He held this position for

fourteen years. In 1999, he was selected to become the President and CEO of the 2002 Winter

Games in Salt Lake City, Utahv .

       Romney’s formal political career began when he entered the 1994 Senate race against

Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts. Romney received 41% of the vote losing to Kennedy by a

seventeen point margin. He once again entered the political realm by becoming the Governor of

Massachusetts in 2002 winning by a five point marginvi.

Barack Obama Biography

       Barack Obama was born was August 4, 1961, in Honolulu, Hawaii. When his parents

separated he moved to Hawaii where he lived with his maternal grandparents, Madelyn and

Stanley Dunham. After High School, Obama attended Occidental College in Los Angeles for

two years. He then transferred to Columbia University in New York. In 1983, he graduated with
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a degree in political science. His education continued as he entered Harvard’s Law School in

1988. In February 1990, he was elected the first African American editor of the Harvard Law

Review and in 1991, Obama graduated magna cum laudevii.

        Obama met his wife Michelle in 1988, when he was a summer associate at the Chicago

law firm of Sidley & Austin. They married in October of 1992, and lived in Kenwood on

Chicago’s South Side with their daughters, Malia and Sashaviii.

        Obama’s professional career began in 1984, where he worked for a year at the Business

International Corporation. In 1985, he worked at the New York Public Interest Research Group

where he was a Project Coordinator at the City College of New Yorkix. There he was responsible

for educating and motivating students to develop their organizational skills by working on a wide

variety of public interest projects.

        Obama’s last professional position was as a professor at the University of Chicago Law

School teaching constitutional law. He served as a lecturer from 1992 to 2004x.

        Obama’s formal political career began in 1996, when he was elected to the Illinois

Senate. In 1998, he was reelected to the Illinois Senate. In 2000, he lost a Democratic primary

run for the U.S. House of Representatives. In 2002, he was reelected again to the Illinois Senate.

In 2004, he decided to run for a U.S. Senate Seat. In the 2004, general election he received 70%

of the vote to Keyes' 27%, the largest victory margin for a statewide race in Illinois historyxi. He

was sworn in as a Senator on January 5, 2005. He then went onto win the 2008 Presidential

election with 52.9% of the popular vote to McCain's 45.7% and 365 electoral votes to 173xii.

Romney Issue History

        Romney’s issue history on taxes, education, and healthcare will be critical during the ’12

campaign. On the issue of taxes he has a consistent stance on what he believes will help the
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economy grow to its fullest. He believes that lower taxes grow the economy, as it helps the

creation of jobs and working families. As governor he cut taxes nineteen timesxiii. He has also

supported ending taxes on interests, dividends, or capital gainsxiv. He believes by doing this

middle income Americans would be able to save their own money. In addition to these taxation

beliefs, Romney has opposed wasteful government spending. In a 2008 debate, Romney made

the comment “we’re going to have to make sure that we rein in spending, the foundation of our

economy is being shaken as we haven’t been doing the job that needs to be done”xv. The second

issue of this campaign deals with education and one must look into Romney’s history on this

issue.

         In 2002, Romney laid out his plan to deal with underperforming schools in

Massachusetts. Under his plan, schools would undergo an immediate third party audit of school

management, curriculum, and faculty if they were deemed to be failing. This plan also gave

principals emergency powers to replace up to 10 percent of staff and initiated an intensive

remedial process for under-performing teachersxvi. As Governor, he also implemented a merit

based scholarship for students that preformed well on state issued exams and finished in the top

quarter of their graduating class. This scholarship allowed students to attend state universities or

college’s tuition freexvii. The third issue deals with healthcare and one must look into Romney’s

history on this issue.

         Romney has come up with various solutions to the healthcare problem. First, he is a

believer in getting each citizen a form of catastrophic health coveragexviii. In order for this to

occur, the private insurance industries and the federal government would come together to

formulate a plan under his leadership. Secondly, he deregulated and allowed for the purchase of

private health insurance as Governor. This allowed for a significant reduction in cost of
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premiums for citizens. Under the “RomneyCare” plan of the ’08 election, each individual would

be required to obtain their own insurance, low income citizens would receive government

subsidies, and the number of people covered under Medicaid would be expandedxix

Obama Issue History

        Obama approaches the issue of tax reform in a different manner. In 2008, he vowed to

increase CEO taxes. Under his plan CEO’s would go back to paying a similar amount of taxes

that were in place during the 1990’s. Secondly, he supports instituting a middle class tax cut and

when asked to define the middle class he suggested anyone making $100,000 a year or lessxx. He

also supports a raise in the capital gains tax. The tax would rise to a similar level that existed

under Bill Clinton. Lastly, he supports removing government programs that have proven to no

longer work effectively. Obama at the ’08 Democratic convention defends this stance by stating

“we cannot meet twenty-first century challenges with a twentieth century bureaucracy”xxi.

Moving forward, Obama’s issue history on education is an intriguing one to examine.

        In 2009, Obama stated that under his economic plan that families struggling to pay

college tuition costs will receive a $2,500 tax credit for all four years of college. To deal with the

underperforming schools he supports increasing the pay of teachers in exchange for more teacher

accountability. He believes with increased pay, teachers need to become more accountable for

their performances, and school districts need to have greater ability to get rid of ineffective

teachersxxii. The last issue history to observe is healthcare.

        Obama believes that heath care in America should be a “right”. Under his current health

care plan he estimates that it will cut the average families premium by $2,500 per year. He also

provides for those who don’t have health insurance as they will have the option of buying a

federal insurance plan. This plan also promises to ensure that insurance companies can not
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discriminate on the basis of pre-existing conditions. To address the issue of high prescription

drug costs, he supports the importation of medicines and increasing the use of generics. Lastly,

he supports the concept of catastrophic insurance with reduced premiums to help families and

businesses xxiii.

Romney Strengths and Weaknesses

        For Romney to win California he must have his strengths recognized fully by the voters.

In the political and private sector he has been able to employ reform and achieve financial

success. His private sector successes are apparent with his work at Bain Capital and the Olympic

Games. During his fourteen years with Bain Capital, the average internal rate of return on

realized investments was 113 percentxxiv.

        At the onset of his Olympic presidency the Games were $379 million short of revenue

goals. He then revamped leadership policies, reduced budgets and increased fundraising efforts.

The Games were a success as they obtained an unexpected profit. In addition to the financial

success of the Games, he donated $1 million of his own money and his $800,000 salary, to

charityxxv. In addition to these examples he went onto show this strength in his political career.

        As governor of Massachusetts, Romney inherited a state with a $3 billion deficientxxvi.

During his four years in office he turned around the deficit and left the state in a balanced state.

This strength was noted as it provides an opportunity for to push the “reform to Washington”

rationale to the voters. A wide-array of professional and political experience will help voters to

believe in the tax, education, and healthcare reforms.

        All candidates have their own weaknesses and it’s important to recognize them as they

will be crucial in the campaign. In the 1994 race against Ted Kennedy, the issue of abortion

became a weakness. He appeared weak as he supported “safe abortions”. He defended this stance
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by telling a story about a family relative who died as a result of an illegal abortion. However, this

stance continually hurts his efforts to appear strong on the issue. This weakness was noted as it

lessens his social issue, and healthcare issue strength. Any change in stance will allow the

opposition to identify him as a flip-flopper. In addition, the issue of abortion will be addressed

when he expands on the healthcare reform issue.

Obama Strengths and Weaknesses

       For Obama to win California in 2012 he must have his strengths recognized fully by the

voters again. His biggest strength in the ’08 election was motivating unique populations to vote

for him. In the last election the total ballots cast by white Americans was down, while African

Americans and Latinos cast many more ballots than they did in ’04. Overall, his influence on the

’08 election contributed to 6.96 million more minority voters. An additional strength of

Obama’s was inspiring the youth to vote. Young voters, age 18-29, cast over 1.8 million more

ballots than the previous Presidential electionxxvii. He accomplished this connection with these

voters by utilizing his personal biography consistently. His humble roots and hard working ways,

have allowed voters to feel inspired and trustworthy of him.

       A weakness that Obama will have to deal with is the idea that he “too liberal”. In 2007,

The Washington Post reported that Obama, while serving in the Senate voted with the

Democratic Party 96% of the time of 251 votesxxviii. He must find a way to work with the

Republican Party in an effective manner during his presidency or this weakness will be present

once again in 2012.
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Romney Mirror Opposites

       When trying to establish and emphasize a distinction between candidates one must look

their mirror opposites. It is important to look at both the biography and public policy histories of

the candidates to cite the appropriate differences.

       Romney’s biography mirror opposite advantage deals with his political upbringing and

successful business endeavors. George W. Romney served as Michigan’s Governor and from this

Mitt gained knowledge of the political system at a young age. At the age of 14, he was allowed

to get involved in politics as he attended meetings or was on the campaign trail. His upbringing

remained grounded as his father drove him hard and encouraged him to be industrious and to

make good choices. This upbringing allowed him to pursue an excellent education and then to

launch Bain Capital, a private-equity spinoff of the Boston consulting firm Bain & Co in the mid

1980’s. His success as an investor, colleagues say, came from having the discipline to say no to

most deals, even some which promised big windfalls in the short term. In his business career he

was careful to keep his professional and private lives separate. Many of his colleagues at Bain

knew little about the details of his religious observancexxix. All of these factors allow for this

biographical mirror opposite to be an advantage for Romney. He grew up with a political family,

established a successful business, and kept his faith a personal issue.

       Romney’s public policy mirror opposite advantage has to deal with his ability to correct

Massachusetts economic difficulties as Governor. As Governor, he faced a large deficient and

instead of raising taxes or borrowing money, he cut spending and closed the budget gap. He

created jobs and saved residents money by cutting capital gains taxes, applying manufacturing

tax relief, and making the investment tax credit permanent. Also, all residents benefited from the
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numerous sales tax holidays he put into practicexxx. During his four years in office he turned

around the deficit and left the state in a balanced state.

Obama’s Mirror Opposites

        Obama’s biography mirror opposite advantage deals with his humble roots and his ability

to relate and identify with voters. After the separation of his parents, Obama attended schools in

Jakarta, where classes were taught in the Indonesian language. This became an issue during the

campaign as Insight Magazine reported that he attended a madrassa, a school that teaches a

radical version of the Muslim faith while in Indonesia. The report was later determined to be

false and a spokesman for Obama called the report “appallingly irresponsible”xxxi. He then

returned to Hawaii where he lived with his maternal grandparents. This confusing childhood was

the cause of painful teenage years for Obama. In his bestselling autobiography Dreams From My

Father: A Story of Race and Inheritance, he discusses his drug abuse during this time frame. He

describes himself as “Junkie, Pothead. That’s where I’d been headed: the final, fatal role of the

young would-be black man, I got high to push questions of who I was out of my mind”. His

ability to put this issue behind him and to then become a successful leader in America has been a

remarkable success story. He believes that it is important “young people who are already in

circumstances that are far more difficult than mine to know that you can make mistakes and

recover”xxxii. The confusing childhood and the setbacks during his teenage years allows him

identify with the modern day American, specifically the youth vote.

        Obama’s public policy mirror opposite advantage deals with his foreign policy

experience and stance. His conceptual revolution towards the way the U.S. conducts foreign

policy is being welcomed by most Americans and much of the world. Diplomacy is something

that he has stressed and wishes to put forward in the next four years. This position will remain an
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advantage with voters as 57% support direct diplomacy with Iran and North Koreaxxxiii. The

popularity of this strategy and the vast foreign policy experience he will gain by 2012 will serve

as a public policy mirror opposite advantage.

Top Issues to California Voters

       To achieve a connection with California voters, candidates must understand the issues

that are the imperative to them. The five issues in order of importance are education, well-being

of seniors, healthcare, cost of living, war in Iraq/Afghanistan, and crime and law

enforcementxxxiv. These have remained consistent concerns from ‘05 through the ’08 presidential

election. The most recent data from Republican primary voters in ’07 indicates key issues were

terrorism and Iraq, social security/Medicare, immigration, foreign oil dependence, government

waste, and health carexxxv. For Democratic primary voters in ’07 the key issues were the Iraq

war, healthcare, gas prices/foreign oil dependence, global warming, and educationxxxvi. This data

has been crucial in the development of the three issues Romney will be running on in 2012.

Demographic Saints

       In order to categorize the Republican Party’s “saint” voters in California the ’98, ’03, and

‘06 gubernatorial and ’00, ’04, and ’08 presidential elections were examined. CNNxxxvii and Los

Angeles Timesxxxviii exit polling to identify the Republican Party’s reliable voters.

       A loyal grouping of voters includes members of the white race. In the last six races white

voters favored the Republican candidate 83% of the time. The only defeat that of a Republican

candidate was John McCain in the ‘08 presidential election where he received 46% of the vote

compared to Obama’s 52%. Otherwise, the white vote has been one sided in California, reaching

a high of 63%, for Arnold Schwarzenegger’s re-election campaign versus Phil Angelides in ‘06.

Overall, white voters tend to heavily favor Republican candidates in both gubernatorial and
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presidential elections in California. Republicans have attracted the white vote but they also have

the support a specific religious group.

        Members of the Protestant faith have a large amount of support for the Republicans. In

the last six elections, Protestant voters have favored the Republican candidate 100% of the time.

The Republicans received 54% of the Protestant vote in the ‘08 Presidential election which was

the lowest rate of support since the ‘98 gubernatorial election between Dan Lungren and Gray

Davis. However, the largest percentage of support in California came in the ‘04 Presidential

election when the Republicans received 59% of the Protestant vote. This sector of voters looks to

be a consistent saint for future elections. In addition to white and Protestant voters, Republicans

are receiving support from non-union households.

        Non-union households are a key entity in the Republicans efforts in California. In the last

six elections, Republicans have consistently won the support of non-union households. In the last

two gubernatorial races the Republicans received an average of 62% of the non-union household

vote.

        Overall the white, protestant, and non union households are the strongest voter groups the

Republicans have in California. In addition to these three groups the Republicans have seen

saint like support from individuals with” some” college experience, and male voters.

Demographic Sinners

        The first group that is considered a sinner is the African American voting bloc. In all six

elections that were considered, African American voters favored Democratic candidates. The

Democrats went a perfect 6 for 6 with this group in gubernatorial and presidential elections from

1998 to 2008. The highest percentage of support a Republican candidate has received was 27%

for Arnold Schwarzenegger in the ‘06 gubernatorial election. Republicans have averaged only
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12% of the vote in the five other elections considered. The Republicans received their lowest

amount of support as John McCain received 5% of the African American vote in the ‘08

Presidential election. This sector of sinner voters looks to be a consistent trend for upcoming

elections in California. In addition to African American voters, low income households are

overwhelmingly showing support for Democratic candidates.

       Low income households are defined as making less than $20,000 a year. Similar to the

African American voters, this group has favored Democratic candidates in all six elections. The

Republicans received their highest support from this group in the ‘06 gubernatorial election with

42%. However, the Republicans averaged only 30% of the vote in the five other elections

considered. The Republicans received their lowest amount of support with 24% of the vote in the

‘08 presidential election. In addition to low income households, the youth vote has heavily

supported Democratic candidates and thus has been defined a sinner voter group.

       The youth vote is all voters between 18 and 29 years of age. Similar to African American

voters and low income households, the youth vote has favored Democratic candidates in all six

elections. The Republicans received their highest support in the ‘03 recall election with 43% of

the youth vote. However, in the other five elections the Republicans have averaged only 35% of

the vote from this group. The Republicans received their lowest amount of support with 23% in

the ‘08 presidential election.

       The African American, low income household, and youth vote are the strongest

opposition to the Republican parties efforts in California gubernatorial and presidential elections.

In addition to these groups the Republicans have seen sinner voting trends with Hispanic voters,

union members, and Jewish voters.
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Demographic Salvageable

        The first group that is considered to be salvageable is the registered independent voters in

California. The Republicans averaged 38% of the registered Independent vote in the six

elections. The highest amount of voter support from this group came in the 2003 gubernatorial

recall election where Schwarzenegger received 43% of the vote. The Republicans lowest support

came in the 2000 Presidential election where only 38% of the Independent vote supported

George W. Bush. With a fairly consistent support base across the last six elections the

independent voters are crucial to receive support from in order to have a Republican candidate to

win the state.

        Catholic voters are a crucial salvageable group for Republican candidates. This is

especially true when looking at the Catholic vote during the most recent presidential elections.

The Republicans received the highest amount support in the ’04 presidential election 41% of the

vote.

        Similar, to independent and Catholic voters, married women provide a voting group that

is salvageable. Republicans received their highest amount of support in the ’00 presidential

election with 43% of the vote.

        The final salvageable group to identify is voters over the age of 60. In the ’08 presidential

election McCain received 50% of the vote from this group.

        Overall the Republican Party’s crucial salvageable voting groups are independents,

Catholic voters, and voters over 60 years of age. They must increase support from these groups

in order to improve efforts in California gubernatorial and presidential elections. In addition, to

these groups Republicans have seen salvageable like voting trends with Asian voters, and voters

with household incomes between $40,000-$75,000.
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Geographic Saints

       There are 14 media marketsxxxix in the state of California and it is important to note where

the saint voters are geographically located in order to target them in an effective manner.

       The first market that has been identified as a saint is the Chico- Redding TV market. This

includes Butte, Glenn, Tehama, Shasta, Trinity, and Modoc counties. This market is located in

the Northeast region of the state. In the last six elections this market has favored the Republican

candidate all six times. In the ‘08 Presidential election this market only yielded a 66% support

rate as only 4 of 6 counties supported McCain over Obama. This market remains strong

historically as the ‘06, ‘03 gubernatorial and ‘04, ‘00 presidential elections had Republicans

carrying all six counties in the market. Butte County has the largest population in this market and

support for the Republicans reached a high in the ‘03 Recall election where the county yielded

70% support for Schwarzenegger and McClintock.

       The second market identified as a saint is the San Diego media market. San Diego

County located in the most Southwest region of the state has about 3 million people residing in

it. In the last six elections this county has favored the Republican candidate five times. In the ‘08

presidential election McCain earned 43% of the vote and this is the only example of a

Republican candidate being defeated in the San Diego TV market. In the ‘06 gubernatorial

election, support for the Republican candidate reached a high with 65%. With an 83% carry rate

for Republicans the San Diego media market earns the title of a saint.

       In addition to these two specific markets Republicans have seen saint like support from

the Sacramento, Bakersfield, Medford, OR, and Los Angeles (excluding LA County) media

markets in the last six elections.
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Geographic Sinners

        The first market that has been identified as a sinner is the San Francisco market. This

includes Mendocino, Lake, Sonoma, Napa, Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara,

Alameda, and Contra Costa counties. This market is located in the central western region of the

state. This region has favored the Democratic candidate in all six races. The Democrats have

averaged an 85% success rate in carrying all counties in the last six elections. In the ’08, ’04, ’00

presidential and the ’98 gubernatorial elections the Democrats have carried all ten counties.

        However, the Republicans did manage to carry seven of ten counties in the ‘06

gubernatorial election. The Republicans were only defeated in Alameda, San Mateo, and Marin

counties. To understand this market in a better manner one must recognize the voting trends of

Alameda County which has the largest population with 1.5 million people. The Republicans

received their highest support in Alameda in the ‘06 gubernatorial election with 36% of the vote.

The worst performance by a Republican came in the ‘08 Presidential election which yielded 19%

of the vote for John McCain. Republican candidates in Alameda County have averaged 25% of

the vote in the six elections. All of these factors have allowed for the San Francisco market to be

identified as a sinner.

        The second market that has been identified as a sinner is the Monterey-Salinas market.

This includes Santa Cruz, Monterey, and San Benito counties. This region is located between the

San Francisco and Santa Barbara markets. This market has favored the Democratic candidate in

four of six elections. The Democrats have averaged a 77% success rate at carrying all counties in

this region for the last six elections. In the ’08, ’04, ’00 Presidential and the ’98 gubernatorial

elections the Democrats have carried all three counties. However, the Republicans did manage to

carry Monterey and San Benito counties and only being defeated in Santa Cruz County in the ‘06
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gubernatorial election. To understand this market completely one must recognize the voting

trends of Monterey County. Monterey has the largest population with 402,000. The Republicans

received their largest support in Monterey with 53% of the vote in the ‘06 gubernatorial election.

The worst performance came in the ‘08 presidential election where McCain received 19% of the

vote. Republican candidates in Monterey County only averaged 39% of vote in the six elections.

All of these factors have allowed for the Monterey-Salinas market to be identified as a sinner.

       In addition to these two specific markets Republicans have seen sinner voting trends in

Reno, NV, Los Angeles County, and Yuma, AZ-El Centro media markets.

Geographic Salvageable

       The first market identified as salvageable is the Santa Barbara market. This includes the

counties of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo. This market is located just south of the

Monterey-Salinas market. This market over the six elections has been closely contested. The

Democrats have won both counties in the ‘98 gubernatorial and ‘08 presidential elections. The

Republicans won both counties in the ‘03 gubernatorial recall election. In both the ’00 and ’04

presidential elections the counties were split with the Democrats carrying Santa Barbara County,

and the Republicans carrying San Luis Obispo. Even though the Republicans have only won

Santa Barbara County once in ’03 all of the other elections have produced very close results.

Examining the average of the six elections the Republicans are receiving 46% of the vote making

this market close and “salvageable”.

       In addition to Santa Barbara, Republicans have seen salvageable voting trends in Eureka,

Fresno, and Palm Springs media markets.
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Campaign Message

       With the theme of “right time, right change” the goal is to motivate voters to notice that

the current policies dealing with taxes, education, and the healthcare system are failing. The

rationale of “bring reform to Washington” was chosen to explain that the strategies for these

three issues will change considerably under a Romney administration. This change will be

productive as past political experience and voter polling defend the positions taken on the issues.

For reform to take place, salvageable demographic and geographic voting groups must be

targeted.

Message for Catholic Voters

       In the ’08 presidential election 30% of the votes cast in California were by Catholic

voters. The key issues of the Catholic vote include the opposition to gay and lesbian marriage, a

moderate abortion viewpoint, and healthcare and education reformxl. In the ’04 presidential

election, Bush received 41% of the Catholic vote in California. This was significant as Bush was

running against Catholic candidate in John Kerry. For a similar amount of success to be

achieved in the 2012 election, the Republican candidate must concur with the beliefs of the

majority of Catholic voters. This will be a difficult task for Romney as Catholic voters are

concerned with his religion. A ’07 poll indicates that only 55% of Catholics have a favorable

view of Mormonsxli. By delivering a message that concurs with the Catholic voter beliefs,

Romney will receive increase support.

       Romney will benefit from his stance on gay marriage. In the recent Prop 8 vote, which

sought to ban same-sex marriages in California, 64% of Catholics voted yesxlii. Romney wrote in

a Wall Street Journal op-ed in’04 that “the institution of marriage was not created by government

and it should not be redefined by government”xliii. In addition, to his gay marriage stance,
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Romney’s history on the abortion issue will help him. Publicly he’s stated that he opposes Roe

v. Wade; however he did not tamper with Massachusetts abortion laws as Governor and chose to

have the pro-choice law remain in effect. This broad abortion view will help him in California, as

7 in 10 Catholics do not believe that they had a religious obligation to vote for candidates who

oppose legal abortionxliv. Romney can expect to gain support from the Catholic vote in 2012 with

a message that stresses opposition to gay marriage, and a moderate abortion view.

Message for Married Women

       In the ’08, presidential election 31% of votes cast in California was by married women.

The key issues of this voting group include lower taxes, strong national defense, and education

reformxlv. In the ’00, presidential election Bush received 43% of the married women vote in

California. To increase voting support, Romney’s message of tax and education reform must be

clear and direct.

       The messages will be similar to the ’08, presidential campaign. The suggestion of lower

taxes for families making under $200,000 a year and the reduction of government spending will

be communicated to the voters. Support is to be expected with this message since as of April

’09, 60% of Americans believe the federal government has too much power and moneyxlvi. If this

trend continues tax and government spending reforms will be embraced. The second message to

attract support will deal with education reform.

       In general, California voters believe that too many school resources are wasted on

bureaucracy and administrative costs. 54% of voters believe that too much of the $67 billion

California spends each year on education, goes towards efforts and programs that don’t help

prepare students for academic successxlvii. With this information Romney must discuss the

academic achievements Massachusetts achieved. To establish credibility, he will discuss that
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when he was in office, Massachusetts 4th and 8th graders scored first in the nation on national

exams. Utilizing his political biography on the issue of education will allow the education reform

message to flourish. Romney in 2012, should expect increase support of the married women

voting group with the message of lower taxes, reduced government spending, and education

reform.

Pivotal Geographic Markets

          Republicans have achieved fickle success in Eureka, Santa Barbara, Fresno, and Palm

Springs media markets. All of these markets cannot be defined as either a saint or sinner so they

have garnered the title of salvageable. The two media markets that are crucial towards the 2012

election are Santa Barbara and Fresno. These markets were selected based upon the amount of

salvageable and saint voting groups residing in them. To understand the importance of these

markets it is necessary to look at the voting trends and population demographics.

          The Santa Barbara media market provides an excellent opportunity for Romney to

receive increased support in 2012. This market includes the counties of Santa Barbara and San

Luis Obispo and is categorized as a left leaning salvageable. Historically, this market has been

closely contested and the voting trends support this claim.

          Santa Barbara County has a population of 404,197, the largest in this media market. The

’03 gubernatorial election produced the only Republican victory in the six elections discussed.

However, the most recent elections have been closely contested and the county is host to both

salvageable and saint voting groups. In the ’08 presidential election 175,407 votes were cast in

Santa Barbara County.

          This county has a large number of married women, Catholics, and 60+ individuals.

Currently, the county has 75,017 married women, 165,000 Catholics, and 72,000 60+ voters.
                                                                                               Florio| 21




This area also has a large portion of saint groups such as white non-Hispanics, Protestants, and

male voters. With 230,392 white non-Hispanics, 18,000 Protestants, and 199,763 males, the

saints have the potential to be influential in the 2012 election.

       San Luis Obispo County has a population of 262,436, making it the smaller in this

market. This county tends to favor Republican candidates, evidenced by victories in the ’00 and

’04 presidential elections. This county has strong representation from both salvageable and saint

voting groups. Currently, it has a large number of married women, and 60+ voters. Statistically,

there are 53,335 married women, and 44,000 60+ voters. In addition, this area has a large

proportion of saint groups such as white non-Hispanics, and male voters. With 199,451 white

non-Hispanics, and 126,704 male voters and strong amount of saint voters are present. In the ’08

presidential election, 133,155 votes were cast in San Luis Obispo County.

       The Fresno media market is a right leaning salvageable. Fresno and Tulare Counties

were examined as they are the largest in population. Fresno County has a population of 899,348,

the largest in this media market. This county is host to both salvageable and saint voting groups.

Currently, the county has a large number of Catholics, married women, and 60+ voters. With

232,565 Catholics, 140,642 married women, and 50,211 60+ voters a great deal of salvageable

voters are up for grabs. In addition, this area has the presence of saint voters like white,

protestant and male voters. Fresno County currently has 359,739 white non-Hispanics, 98,928

Protestants, and 400,476 male voters. In the ’08 presidential election 273,452 votes were cast in

Fresno County. In this election, Obama won the county by nearly 6,000 votes and ended a streak

of Republican victories in Fresno. This defeat and close vote totals in previous elections is the

reasoning behind depicting the Fresno media market as a right leaning salvageable.
                                                                                            Florio| 22




       Tulare County has a population of 421,553. Tulare is made up of both salvageable and

saint voting groups, making it a closely contested area each election. In the ’08 presidential

election 105,524 votes were cast. With 119,080 Catholics and 37,328 60+ voters, a large amount

of salvageable voters are present. In addition, this area has a large proportion of saint voting

groups with 177,052 white non-Hispanics and 65,000 Protestants.

       Overall, the Santa Barbara and Fresno media markets are crucial salvageable areas for

Republicans in 2012. Romney and the theme of reforms to taxes, education, and healthcare will

succeed by targeting the large amounts of Catholics, married women, and voters over the age of

60 in these two media markets. Lastly, the objective of this targeting plan is to turn these

geographically salvageable areas into saints on Election Day.

Announcement Event

       Mitt Romney will announce his candidacy for President of the United States in the front

yard of his home in Boston, Massachusetts. His wife and five sons will join him during the

speech. The speech will discuss how he wishes to bring reform to Washington and how he is the

right change at the right time for America. This event will take place February 8th, 2011 at 11am.

Paid Media Message

       A television ad titled “Country, I love” will be targeted geographically. 80% of the

allotted media buying budget for this spot will go towards purchasing air time in the salvageable

markets of Santa Barbara and Fresno. The remaining 20% will be equally divided to purchase air

time in saint markets like Chico-Redding, San Diego, Sacramento, Bakersfield, and Medford,

OR. The ad will also be available on the campaigns website, an official Facebook support group,

and on Youtube. (See addendum for ad)
                                                                                            Florio| 23




Email Message

         A series of three email messages will be sent out to members of the Republican Party. All

three will compare the plans of Romney and Obama dealing with taxes, education, and

healthcare. Each email will only discuss one issue in order to keep the message short, direct, and

easy to understand. The data utilized for these emails will be leaked a few hours in advance to

conservative websites such as Drudgereport.com and Townhall.com in order for viral marketing

to take place.

Direct Mail Breakdown

         80% of the direct mail budget will be distributed evenly to target Catholic, married

women, and voters over the age of 60. Each voter group will have their own separate mail piece.

The Catholic voters will receive a piece discussing Romney’s faith and his opposition to gay

marriage. Married women voters will receive a piece discussing lower taxes, and education

reform plans. The voters over the age of 60 will receive a piece discussing healthcare reform

plans.

         The remaining 20% of the direct mail budget will target the saints of white non-Hispanics

and male voters. The saint mailing will be identical and it will highlight successes of Romney’s

from his personal, professional, and political biography.

Plan for Dealing with Biggest Policy Weakness

         Romney and Obama will battle to receive as much support from the Catholic vote as

possible. During this contest, the issue of Romney’s inconsistent stance on abortion will arise. In

order to turn this issue into a strength he must make it appear as if Obama is personally attacking

him. This can be accomplished if Romney consistently speaks about how he has lost a relative to

an illegal abortion and this is why he has had trouble taking a firm stance on the issue. If he is
                                                                                            Florio| 24




able to acquire some sympathy from voters then the issue of him changing his stance on abortion

will be irrelevant.

Benchmark

        In the ’08 presidential election, John McCain only received 37% of the vote in California.

For the 2012 election a 15% or more improvement is needed to guarantee Mitt Romney a victory

in California.

Targeted Areas of Improvement

        In the saint voting bloc, increased support from white voters will be necessary. Romney

will need to achieve increased support from 40% support of McCain earned. Obama produced

58% of the male vote and this 18 point percentage gap needs to be considerably lessened.

Romney will also need increased support from the sinner voting group of African Americans.

McCain only received 5% of support from African Americans compared to Obama’s 94%.

Lastly, the Catholic vote will need to show more support for Romney. An improvement of the

37% of the vote that McCain received will be needed to compete against Obama’s 59%.

        To accomplish improvement with these voting groups Romney will push the agenda of

reform. The rationale and theme are broad enough to reach these groups effectively throughout

the campaign. Secondly, the idea that Washington politics is underperforming and change is

needed will resonate with the voters. Lastly, the issues, and the proposed plans that go with them

will affect all three groups in a encouraging manner, which will allow for increased support on

Election Day.

Conclusion

        Mitt Romney should expect increased success in California by utilizing the strategies and

data discussed in this paper. It will be a difficult objective to achieve, however the voters in
                                                                                     Florio| 25




California are always open to new ideas and leadership styles. Mitt Romney may ultimately be

the candidate at the right time, who will deliver the right change.
                                                                                Florio| 26




Mitt Romney TV AD

   COUNTRY, I LOVE    Mitt Romney for President
   :30
                      AUDIO
   VIDEO
                      ( Soft, light mood acoustic guitar playing)
   SLOW MOTION
   WAVING AMERICAN
   FLAG (:2)

   ROMNEY SITTING
   IN KITCHEN AT
   HOME (DAYTIME),
   BACKYARD/TREES     ROMNEY: I’m Mitt Romney,
   VISIBLE THROUGH
   WINDOWS IN         ROMNEY: The United States and California are made of
   BACKGROUND (:10)   strong people and strong values. I have been blessed to
                      witness this.
   PICTURE
   SPEAKING AT A
   HIGH SCHOOL (:4)
                      ROMNEY: It has allowed me to pursue my career as a
   VINTAGE PICTURE    successful businessman, Governor, and father of five
   PLAYING CATCH      young gentlemen.
   WITH SONS (:4)

   BACK TO ROMNEY
   AT HOME
   SPEAKING INTO
                      ROMNEY: I have listened to your concerns and I know that
   CAMERA FINISHING
                      you deserve tangible and sensible solutions. If I have the
   2nd PARAGRAPH.
                      honor of being your President, I will deliver smart, sound,
   (:10)
                      change for your California.
                                                                                                  Florio| 27




Looking at the last three gubernatorial and Presidential elections in California it is important to note
where the Republican parties “saint” voters are via exit polling data:

1998 California gubernatorial election between Dan Lungren (R) and Gray Davis (D)

Race and Gender            White Male 49%              White Women 43%
Age                        60 and over 48%
Income                     $30,000-50 41%              $50,000-75 42%              $100,000+ 44%
Education                  Some College 42%            College Grad 44%
Religion                   Protestant 55%              Other Christian 45%


2003 California gubernatorial recall election Arnold Schwarzenegger (R)

Race                       White 52%                   Hispanic 31%
Gender                     Male 49%                    Female 43%
Age                        18-29 43%                   30-44 49%                   65+ 46%
Income                     $50,000-75 46%              $75,000-100 53%             $100,000+ 50%
Education                  High School 50%             Some College 48%            College Grad 49%
Union                      Non-Union 50%


2006 California gubernatorial election Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) v. Phil Angelides (D)

Race                       White 63%                   Asian 62%
Gender                     Male 58%                    Female 55%
Age                        30-44 56%                   45-59 58%                   60+ 60%
Income                     $50,000-75 60%              $100,000-150 65%
Education                  Some College 59%            College Grad 58%
Union                      Non-Union 61%


2000 Presidential Election George Bush (R) v. Al Gore (D)

Race                       White 49%                   Asian 33%
Gender                     Male 46%
Age                        30-44 46%                   65+ 44%
Income                     $40,000-60 46%
Education                  Some College 47%
Religion                   Protestant 57%
                                                                                                  Florio| 28




2004 Presidential Election George Bush (R) v. John Kerry (D)

Race                       White 52%                   Asian 35%
Gender                     Male 45%
Age                        30-44 44%                   45-64 47%
Income                     $60,000-75 46%              $75,000+ 48%
Education                  Some College 49%
Religion                   Protestant 59%              Catholic 41%


2008 Presidential Election John McCain (R) v. Barack Obama (D)

Race                       White 46%                   Asian 35%
Gender                     Male 40%
Age                        40-49 43%                   65+ 50%
Income                     $50,000-75 41%              $100,000-150 43%
Education                  Some College 39%            College Grad 41%


Exit Poll Results: This data makes the suggestion that the Republican “Saint” voters primarily include:
Members of the White Race, Male, 60+ voters, individuals with “some” college experience, non-union
members, and of the Protestant faith.

Geographic Saints by TV Markets

Looking at county election results it appears that the following markets can be considered “Saints”:
Chico-Redding, Sacramento, Bakersfield, San Diego, Medford, OR, Los Angeles (Excluding LA County)

Demographic Sinners

Looking at the last three gubernatorial and Presidential elections in California it is important to note
where the Republican parties “sinner” voters are via exit polling data:

1998 California gubernatorial election between Dan Lungren (R) and Gray Davis (D)

Race                       African American 11%        Hispanic 17%
Gender                     Female 35%
Age                        18-29 31%
Income                     Less than $15,000 25%       $15,000-30 29%
Education                  No High School 22%          High School Grad 35%
Religion                   Jewish 13%


2003 California gubernatorial recall election Arnold Schwarzenegger (R)

Race                       African American 17%
Gender                     Female 43%
Age                        18-29 43%
                                                                                         Florio| 29




Income                    $15,000-30 35%              $30,000-50 40%
Education                 Post-Grad 38%
Union                     Member 37%


2006 California gubernatorial election Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) v. Phil Angelides (D)

Race                      African American 27%        Hispanic 39%
Gender                    Non-White Women             Non-White Men 48%
                          39%
Age                       18-29 44%
Income                    $15,000-30 42%              Under $15,000 45%
Education                 No High School 45%
Union                     Member 43%


2000 Presidential Election George Bush (R) v. Al Gore (D)

Race                      African American 14%        Hispanic 23%
Gender                    Female 39%
Age                       18-29 40%                   45-64 39%
Income                    Less $20,000 34%            $20,000-40 39%
Education                 High School Grad or         Post College Grad 42%
                          Less 39%
Religion                  Jewish 15%                  Catholic 38%


2004 Presidential Election George Bush (R) v. John Kerry (D)

Race                      African American 14%        Hispanic 31%
Gender                    Female 42%
Age                       18-29 38%                   65+ 42%
Income                    Less than $20,000 32%       $20,000-40 40%
Education                 College Degree or More
                          40%
Religion                  Jewish 20%


2008 Presidential Election John McCain (R) v. Barack Obama (D)

Race                      African American 5%         Hispanic 23%
Gender                    Female 35%
Age                       18-29 23%                   65+ 50%
Income                    Under $15,000 21%           $15,000-30 28%
Education                 High School 33%             Postgraduate 33%
First Time Voter          Yes, 16%
                                                                                                  Florio| 30




Exit Poll Results: This data makes the suggestion that the Republican “Sinner” voter primarily includes:
Members of the African American and Hispanic races, Females, 18-29 year olds, Household income
between $15-50,000 dollars, post graduate degree recipients, Union Members, Members of the Jewish
faith, and first time voters.

Geographic Sinners by TV Markets

Looking at county election results it appears that the following markets can be considered “Sinners”: San
Francisco, Monterey-Salinas, Reno, NV, Los Angeles County, Yuma, AZ- El Centro

Demographic Salvageable

Looking at the last three gubernatorial and Presidential elections in California it is important to note
where the Republican “salvageable” voters are via exit polling data:

1998 California gubernatorial election between Dan Lungren (R) and Gray Davis (D)

Age                        45-59 39%                   White Women 43%
Party Identification       Independent 35%


2003 California gubernatorial recall election Arnold Schwarzenegger (R)

Race                       Other 37%
Party ID                   Independent or other
                           43%
Age                        25-29 39%
Income                     $30,000-50 40%


2006 California gubernatorial election Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) v. Phil Angelides (D)

Race                       Non-White Men 48%
Education                  No High School 45%


2000 Presidential Election George Bush (R) v. Al Gore (D)

Race                       Asian 33%
Gender and Marriage        Married Women 43%
Age                        45-64 39%
Party ID                   Independents 38%
Education                  Post Grad 42%


2004 Presidential Election George Bush (R) v. John Kerry (D)

Race                       Asian 35%
                                                                                               Florio| 31




Political Ideology        Moderate 38%
Party Affiliation         Independent 41%
Income                    $40,000-60 42%             $60,000-75 46%
Voting Status             First Time Voter 40%
Religion                  Catholic 41%


2008 Presidential Election John McCain (R) v. Barack Obama (D)

Sex and Race              White Women 44%            Hispanic 23%
Age                       30-44 39%
Income                    $50,000-75 41%             $100,000-150 43%
Education and Race        White College Grads
                          42%
Race and Party ID         White Independents
                          37%
First Time Voter          No 44%


Exit Poll Results: This data makes the suggestion that the Republican “Salvageable” voter primarily
includes: members of the Asian race, married women, independent political ideology, Household
income $40-75,000 dollars, members of the Catholic faith.

Geographic Salvageable by TV Markets

Looking at county election results it appears that the following markets can be considered
“Salvageable”: Eureka, Santa Barbara, Fresno, and Palm Springs

Salvageable Geographic Voter Targeting Data

Santa Barbara Media Market

Santa Barbara County: Population: 404,197

Salvageable          Asian: 16,167        Married Women        Catholics: 165,000   Average             60+: 72,000
                                          75,017                                    Household
                                                                                    Income: $70,000


Saints               White Non-           Protestants:         Mormons: 5,600       Males: 199,763
                     Hispanic: 230,392    18,000



San Luis Obispo County: Population 262,436
                                                                                          Florio| 32




Salvageable        Asian: 6,568        Married Women        Catholics: 68,264    Average               60+ 44,000
                                       53,335                                    Household
                                                                                 Income: $56,952

Saints             White Non-          Protestants: 6,000   Mormons: 5,418       Males: 126,704
                   Hispanic: 199,451



Fresno Media Market

Fresno County: Population 899,348

Salvageable        Asian: 48,028       Married Women        Catholics: 232,565   Average               60+: 50,211
                                       140,642                                   Household
                                                                                 Income: $47,000


Saints             White Non-          Protestants:         Mormons: 14,527      Males: 400,476
                   Hispanic: 359,739   98,928



Tulare County: Population 421,553

Salvageable        Asian: 12,018       Married Women:       Catholics: 119,080   Average               60+: 37,328
                                       76,681                                    Household
                                                                                 Income: $40,595


Saints             White Non-          Protestants:         Mormons: 5,000       Males: 184,010
                   Hispanic: 177,052   65,000
                Florio| 33




TV Market Map
                                                                                                      Florio| 34




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 Tamim Ansary, "Best and Worst Political Slogans," May. 2006,
<http://encarta.msn.com/column_politicalslogansmain_tamimhome/best_and_worst_political_slogans.html>.
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iii
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v
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vii
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viii
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ix
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x
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xi
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icon/331.html>.
xii
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xiii
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xiv
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xvi
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xvii
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xviii
        "Mitt Romney: on Healthcare" Jan. 08, <http://www.ontheissues.org/2008/Mitt_Romney_Health_Care.htm>.
xix
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xx
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xxi
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xxii
     "Obama: on Education" Oct. 06, <http://www.ontheissues.org/social/Barack_obama_Education.htm>.
                                                                                                            Florio| 35




xxiii
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xxiv
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xxv
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xxvi
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xxvii
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.
xxviii
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xxix
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xxx
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r_we_need >
xxxi
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2007.<http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/24/us/politics/24obama.html>
xxxii
         Lois Romano. "Effect of Obama’s candor remains to be seen" The Washington Post, January 3, 2007.
xxxiii
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xxxiv
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<http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/COI-05-Mar-CA-Issues.pdf>.
xxxv
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<http://workingcalifornians.com/story/analysis_of_california_republican_primary_survey_issues>.
xxxvi
   "California Democratic Primary Survey” Apr. 2006,
<http://workingcalifornians.com/story/analysis_of_ca_primary_voters_survey_democratic_horse_race>.
xxxvii
          "CNN Exit Polling" Jan. 09, <http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls>.
xxxviii
          "LA Times Exit Polling" Jan. 09, <http://www.latimes.com/news/custom/timespoll >.
xxxix
         "California Media Market Map" Feb. 09, <http://www.dishuser.org/TVMarkets/Maps/california.gif>.
xl
      "Winning the Catholic Vote" Dec.00, <http://www.brspoll.com/Reports/Catholic%20voters%20summary.pdf >.
xli
      "Public expresses Mixed Views of Mormonism" Sept.07, <http://pewforum.org/surveys/religionviews07>.
                                                                                                       Florio| 36




xlii
  Matthai Kuruvila. "Catholics, Mormons allied to Pass Prop 8." The San Francisco Chronicle, Nov 10,
2008.<http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/11/09/MNU1140AQQ.DTL>
xliii
  Mitt Romney. "One Man, One Women." The Wall Street Journal, Feb 5,
2004.<http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110004647>
xliv
        "Winning the Catholic Vote" Dec.00, <http://www.brspoll.com/Reports/Catholic%20voters%20summary.pdf >.
xlv
  Melinda Henneberger. "Women Voters and the issues that matter” NPR, May 1,
2007.<http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=9942914>
xlvi
  "Rasmussen Reports" Apr.09,
<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics2/60_say_government_has_too_mu
ch_power_too_much_money>.
xlvii
   "Voters concerned with Public Education" May.08,
<http://www.cbeefoundation.org/press_releases/CBEE08%20Results%20Release%20%20051508.pdf >.

				
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